We’ll start with the Ukrainian ambassador to the United Nations.
Ukrainian Ambassador holds up a tweet from Lavrov and advises Russian diplomats that they can obtain assistance for mental help from the NHS by dialing 111 pic.twitter.com/bFoqyKYJ6Q
— Acyn (@Acyn) March 7, 2022
And now a word from the real Mom’s for Liberty:
Here is the full video of Ukraine's women-warriors' address to Russians. I am so proud. pic.twitter.com/EOzS9YlU9W
— Nika Melkozerova (@NikaMelkozerova) March 7, 2022
And some remarks from President Zelenskyy:
Day 12 of Russia’s full-on invasion of Ukraine. Where’s President Zelensky?
“I’m staying in Kyiv. In my office. I’m not hiding. And I’m not afraid of anyone.”
The comic turned president has truly become a wartime leader. pic.twitter.com/dKbzYWwpbo
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 7, 2022
President Zelenskyy has also recalled all Ukrainian forces and equipment detailed to the UN for peacekeeping missions:
⚡️President Zelensky signs decree on March 8 recalling Ukrainian peacekeeping forces to defend Ukraine.
The decree declares that all soldiers and equipment dedicated to U.N. peacekeeping operations must return to Ukraine to assist in the war effort.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
I’m still fried, so I’m getting this done as quickly as I can so I can go rack out.
I want to start with the thread below, because it overlaps with my comment last night about no one being able to predict how the Russian reinvasion of and war on Ukraine will turn out. Also, before I get to the thread, the 30 years war bit last night was a joke. It did not require a two paragraph response in the comments. Work with me people!!!!
First tweet followed by the rest of the thread copied and pasted into a bulletized list in a quote box:
? I sat through an intel update this afternoon. While I can’t get specific, what I will say is that the view of the war that we are getting from expertly curated UKR IO is giving a lot of folks an impression of not only RUS incompetence but also UKR dominance. 1/6
— Strategy Badger (@ErrantStrategry) March 7, 2022
- The excellent work of accounts like@RALee85 and @OSINTtechnical further reinforce this. They are not pushing disinfo, but they are providing reinforcement of an impression that the RF are wholly indisciplined and wildly incompetent. 2/6
- The RF absolutely feature these things. But what we are not seeing is the mil successes they are having. Recall they are advancing and they are taking ground. Just really slow. 3/6
- UKR derived media are only showing UKR success stories or CIVCAS. They are doing a fantastic job staying on message. The media we see make it seem like farmers and students and old men and women are mauling the RF. While we almost never see their regular units in action. 4/6
- The fact is that RUS is having some success, and while they’ve lost a sizable amount of personnel and equipment, it’s only a small percentage of the total they brought. While each UKR loss, especially of their regular soldiers and pilots, is irreplaceable. 5/6
- My point is that we must keep cheering on UKR to resist, but we must begin to accept that even though some RF is twisted into knots, they still have a lot of force available and time is likely on their side if they are will to endure the punishing sanctions and casualties. 6/6
- I want to be very clear: nothing here is derived from the intel. It simply reinforced/affirmed my suspicions after critically thinking about the imagery and messaging we have been steadily fed. I’m deeply impressed with the UKR IO discipline. It is working!
I think this is a very good point to keep in mind. We need to be able to separate the reporting from the very well done Information and Psychological Warfare. Even the Ukrainian news media sources I’ve been providing are clearly leaning heavily in to “we’re holding, we’re beating them back, look how terrible they are”, etc. It’s completely understandable, but it is also something we have to keep in mind. Especially as everyone doing the digital portions of the OSINT* – that’s the videos and geolocated imagery – are working very hard not to publish or post anything that would harm the Ukrainians and help the Russians. Which just further compounds this effect.
Russia released new demands today. They’re as bad as yesterday’s, just in wholly new ways. So ignore the people commenting along the lines of “still bad, but we’re seeing movement”. If this is movement, it is not movement in a positive direction.
Peskov just essentially confirmed this, less the PM part of course (screen via @bazabazon ) pic.twitter.com/v9tO3HvVIb
— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 7, 2022
It is VERY, VERY important to remember that Russia runs this same strategy over and over and over again. Completely unacceptable, never going to happen demands are made, then withdrawn or never remarked on again, while new unacceptable and never going to happen demands are made all to provide the appearance of reasonableness and a willingness to resolve matters through diplomatic means. All while consolidating gains, moving reinforcements into place, resupplying, and ignoring the humanitarian ceasefires it has agreed to through diplomatic negotiations. I’m sure tomorrow we’ll see a new, but equally bonkers set of demands from Russia about what it would take to get Russia to stop reinvading and waging war on Ukraine.
And the Russians, of course, are still targeting civilians!
⚡️Children among dead after Russian air raid on residential buildings in Sumy.
Head of Sumy Regional State Administration Dmitry Zhivitsky said in a video message on Facebook on March 7 that at least 10 people were killed as a result of targeted bombings by Russia on Sumy.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
Speaking of bonkers!
Separately, some members of congress are beginning to advocate for a non-kinetic no-fly zone – something to the effect of using electromagnetic pulse, sonar, and cyber to keep Russian jets on the ground so they can never take off. Unclear how much support this will end up getting
— Jacqui Heinrich (@JacquiHeinrich) March 7, 2022
Let me just take a moment to clarify, we here, and just about everyone everywhere, has been using the term no fly zone. What everyone in Ukraine is actually asking for, despite using the term no fly zone, is denial of flight through the creation of an air exclusion zone over Ukraine. What some members of Congress are suggesting above is not how you create an air exclusion zone. I know there’s an EMP caucus, or at least working group, but they really need to stop listening to Gingrich. As for using sonar or cyber to ground Russian jets, I don’t know how you’d use the former unless we’ve either got DC’s Black Canary, Marvel’s Banshee, Banshee’s daughter Siren, or Black Bolt suddenly available. As for Cyber, that is way out of my area of expertise, but I’m pretty sure this isn’t the Cylons hacking all the networked battlestars leaving only Galactica operational.
The Russians are continuing their targets of electrical generating infrastructure, as well as any place that could, potentially, cause a radiological incident or major environmental damage.
⚡️Two oil depots in Zhytomyr Oblast on fire after air strikes.
According to the State Emergency Service, the targeted oil depots are in Zhytomyr and Cherniahiv. The fire has been extinguished. No casualties have been reported yet.
Video: State Emergency Service of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/il97wfmMwI
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 7, 2022
⚡️Nuclear research facility in Kharkiv damaged by shelling, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency said on March 7.
Ukraine’s nuclear regulator does not report an increase in radiation levels at the site.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) March 8, 2022
Major General Vitaliy Gerasimov, the chief of staff with Russia’s 41st Combined Arms Army, has been eliminated by Ukraine's military intelligence operators.
I still don’t get it what Russians are hoping for in this war. pic.twitter.com/LBWPYpAFMN— Illia Ponomarenko ?? (@IAPonomarenko) March 7, 2022
This has now been confirmed! Long thread explaining how it was confirmed:
Jesus, Ukraine just killed Gen. Maj. Vitaly Gerassimov, chief of staff of the 41 Army. At Kharkiv.
Russia, if you're listening: delete your army.— Christo Grozev (@christogrozev) March 7, 2022
Here’s a bayraktar drone doing what it is supposed to do.
#Ukraine: We present some exclusive recent footage from the eyes of the Bayraktar TB2 drone in the hands of the Ukrainian military.
A 9K317 Buk-M2 TELAR, part of the infamous convoy, completely destroyed. pic.twitter.com/PUiWkeOPwm
— ?? Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 7, 2022
Christopher Miller is reporting that the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense is reporting that Ukrainian forces have brought down two Russian jets:
I don’t see any photos yet but Ukraine’s armed forces claims to have shot down two Russian planes somewhere over Kyiv at 830pm and 910pm local time. https://t.co/Fl7GZwkGM1
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 7, 2022
Here’s video of a downed SU-34, not sure if it is part of the tally Miller is reporting:
The wreckage of that Russian Su-34 bomber (RF-95070) shot down yesterday in Kharkiv. https://t.co/KXtH9faD4T pic.twitter.com/fZtr2qb63e
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) March 7, 2022
If you’re wondering why it is so hard for the US to actually do something meaningful in terms of the Russian oligarchs that operate here, this is a large portion of why:
We’re going to spend *years* trying to disentangle just how widely Russian oligarchic wealth infiltrated Western jurisdictions and industries.
Non-profits. Museums. Cultural organizations. Sports. Real estate. Private equity. Venture capital. Art.
Absolutely everywhere.
— Casey Michel ?? (@cjcmichel) March 2, 2022
Great to see our research with @dszakonyi and @acdatacollectiv cited in this Washington Post piece on the tidal wave of money Russian oligarchs have given to American non-profits: https://t.co/gFA12We5Sl
— Casey Michel ?? (@cjcmichel) March 7, 2022
Basically, they’ve completely insinuated themselves and their businesses into funding Republican political campaigns and conservative causes, as well as using their money to launder their reputations through charitable organizations. Britain has an even worse problem with this than the US does, which is why the UK has sanctioned only about 15 oligarchs. The entire pro-Brexit movement, as well as the Tory Party are completely penetrated by the oligarchs and their money.
Apparently, some folks in the Kremlin are getting squeamish.
President Vladimir Putin has alienated some top Russian officials since the early stages of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian journalist Farida Rustamova reported.
According to the journalist Ilya Lozovsky’s English translation of Rustamova’s Tuesday report, officials and members of parliament she spoke with said they were increasingly worried about how Putin was handling the war.
“In reality, the attitude toward the war within the corridors of power is ambiguous,” Rustamova wrote, according to Lozovsky, whose translation she shared on Twitter and reposted in her Substack newsletter. “I came to this conclusion after speaking with several members of parliament and officials at various levels. Many of them are discouraged, frightened, and are making apocalyptic forecasts.”
Rustamova recently fled the country and previously worked for the BBC Russian Service — which has since been suspended by the London-based network — as well as Meduza and the RBC, an investigative outlet that experienced a mass resignation in 2016.
“No one is rejoicing,” a source described as “close to the Kremlin” told Rustamova, according to Lozovsky’s translation. “Many understand that this is a mistake, but in the course of doing their duty they come up with explanations in order to somehow come to terms with it.”
“Some officials aren’t associating themselves with what’s happening at all, viewing Putin’s decision as a historical choice over which they have no influence, and the meaning of which no one will understand for a some time to come,” Rustamova wrote.
Another person granted anonymity said Kremlin officials were “carefully enunciating the word clusterfuck” when describing the invasion.
Rustamova wrote that every source she talked to believed Putin wouldn’t follow through on invading Ukraine and was instead looking to gain leverage for concessions, such as declaring Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics.”
Much more at the link.
Finally, we have full clarifying details on the Ukrainian woman who defeated a drone with a jar of pickled vegetables. Apparently they were pickled tomatoes and plums, not cucumbers.
https://t.co/yRM5P88bGr found the woman who knocked down a Russian drone with a jar of pickled tomatoes. She wants to set the record straight: those were NOT picked cucumbers. The gist of her story is in this thread 1/https://t.co/13txRgttLt
— Katya Gorchinskaya (@kgorchinskaya) March 7, 2022
- It was dusk, the sun had not yet risen. Olena was sitting on the balcony of her Kyiv apartment and smoking: “I saw something floating slowly. At first I thought that a crow was injured. And then I heard a buzz.” She had never seen a drone up close before 2/
- She figured that by the time she ran into the room and returned too much time will have passed – the drone might disappear. But she had plenty of preserves right by her feet on the floor! So she grabbed a jar and hurled it as hard as she could at the UFO 3/
- “Probably out of fear. Because I was scared. And what if they start firing at me from there! I feel sorry for those tomatoes… I don’t know where the stories about cucumbers came from.” Apparently those were pickled tomatoes with plums, her favorite recipe. 4/
- Olena is a small household goods store worker. She thinks the drone may have been launched by the Russian marauders who had allegedly been seen in the area. END
Thanks to everyone who emailed the link to me thinking I wasn’t going to find it on my own! O ye of little faith…
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Update 13: Ukraine Is Still HoldingPost + Comments (148)