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War for Ukraine Day 1,177: A Brief Friday Night Update

by Adam L Silverman|  May 16, 202511:46 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: Sorry this is coming in late. It was another long day here. Got a few more of them and then things should start to settle back to normal. I’m just going to run through the basics tonight.

The mid-level Russian functionaries that Putin sent to Istanbul decided to make Pytin’s objectives explicitly clear.

“We don’t want war, but we’re ready to fight for a year, two, three—however long it takes. We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?”

Russia doesn’t want peace. If this wasn’t obvious from the fact they they started the war, it should be from this sentence

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:21 PM

“Maybe more of your loved ones will die”:

russia’s threat at #Ukraine peace talks revealed

russia says it’s ready to fight “forever”-despite nearly a million casualties.

euromaidanpress.com/2025/05/16/m…

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— Eugene McParland 🇺🇦 (@eugenemcparland.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:11 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

“We fought Sweden for 21 years. How long are you ready to fight?” That was the message delivered by Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky to the Ukrainian delegation during recent peace talks in Istanbul, according to The Economist’s Oliver Carroll, citing an informed source.

Medinsky, who led the Russian side, also reportedly said Russia “does not want war” but is ready to fight for “a year, two, three—however long it takes.” Another statement attributed to him warned: “Maybe some of those sitting here at this table will lose more of their loved ones. Russia is prepared to fight forever.”

These remarks came during a rare face-to-face meeting—the first between Ukrainian and Russian negotiators in more than three years. The two-hour session resulted in a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange agreement, confirmed by Ukraine’s Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, though no implementation date was announced.

According to Carroll’s report, the Russian delegation conditioned a ceasefire on Ukraine withdrawing all forces from Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—regions claimed by Moscow since 2022 but only partially occupied. Ukrainian diplomatic sources said Russia also threatened to seize Kharkiv and Sumy, expanding its territorial demands.

A source told Reuters the proposals were “detached from reality,” while a Kyiv official told The Telegraph that Russia considered Ukrainian withdrawal a “minimum requirement” for any progress.

Ukrainian MP Oleksiy Honcharenko also claimed that the Russian delegation issued threats to take Sumy region during the meeting.

Despite these allegations, neither delegation publicly mentioned any threats following the talks. Both sides acknowledged only the prisoner swap. Medinsky confirmed the deal and noted Ukraine’s request for a presidential-level meeting, but no additional negotiations were announced.

More at the link.

There’s a couple of different things to keep in mind. The first is that Medinsky and his colleagues are just mid-level equivalents of Lavrov. They are trusted to go out and weaponize Russia’s diplomatic power, but they are not in the inner circle around Putin and have no real influence within the Kremlin. The second is that none of these demands are even remotely surprising. Even though it is now completely clear to everyone that Putin cannot achieve his war objectives, he will demand that they simply be delivered to him or else. And then he’ll make additional threats and demands tethered to them. He can’t be negotiated with and, as a result, Russia cannot be negotiated with because negotiations arenot meant to get all the parties to their best alternative negotiated agreement, bur merely to drag things out another day, week, month, or year because he is convinced that the US, the EU, and NATO will either eventually run out of interest in providing support or one of the nativist, neo-fascist parties he supports either overtly or covertly will win an election and make things easier for him. He’s probing for mush and if he finds it he will order Russia to advance further until the probing hits steel.

President Zelenskyy addressed the European Political Community Summit today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Number One Priority Is a Full, Unconditional, and Honest Ceasefire – Speech by the President at the European Political Community Summit

16 May 2025 – 15:52

Thank you so much, dear friend, thank you so much, Edi, Prime Minister Rama, thank you!

And thank you, Albania, for hosting us today, not just in a beautiful country, but in a country that believes in Europe and stands for its future.

Dear friends!

Thank you all for your support, and I appreciate that we share the same understanding – this war, the war of Russian against Ukraine, must be ended as soon as possible, and in a just way. Ukraine needs peace. Peace in Europe depends on whether Ukraine will get it.

All of you know that this week we had a real chance to take important steps toward ending this war – if only Putin hadn’t been afraid to come to Türkiye. I was in Ankara yesterday – and thanks for participation and hosting us, President Erdoğan – and I was ready for a direct meeting with Putin – whether in Ankara or in Istanbul – and not just for a meeting, but to resolve all the important issues, to my mind. But he didn’t agree to anything. I mean, Putin. You can also see that the Russian delegation that came to Istanbul is of a very low level. None of them are people who actually make decisions in Russia. Still, I sent our team to Istanbul, led by Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, at least to see if those Russians can actually decide anything. Our number one priority is a full, unconditional, and honest ceasefire. This must happen immediately to stop the killing and create a solid basis for diplomacy, first of all. And if the Russian representatives in Istanbul today cannot even agree to that – to ceasefire, to this clearly necessary first step – then it will be 100% clear that Putin continues to undermine diplomacy. If that’s not the case, there must be at least some result today, starting with a ceasefire. The Ukrainian delegation has a mandate to make decisions.

As we saw yesterday, Russia sent almost the same people it sent in 2022. This shows that Russia hasn’t changed its basic approach – they make many statements, many threats, but solve nothing. They’re doing everything they can to turn this Istanbul meeting into a staged, empty process – just like the ones in 2022. It’s not us or Western leaders who are disrupting the negotiations, as the Russians have been claiming for years – it’s Russians who send empty heads to the talks, and that’s what destroys the meaning of diplomacy. So if it turns out that the Russian delegation really is just theatrical and can’t deliver any results today, the world must respond. There needs to be a strong reaction, including sanctions against Russia’s energy sector and banks. Pressure must continue to rise until real progress is made.

Ukraine is ready to take all realistic steps to end this war. I call on Putin to give his delegation real authority.

We need a full stop to the killing – long enough to give diplomacy a real chance. Secondly, we must build at least a minimum level of trust in the negotiation process. This can be done by releasing prisoners of war, returning Ukrainian children taken by Russia, and releasing civilian hostages currently held by the Russian side. Third, we need to clearly define which issues must be handled at the leadership level – not below. We all know who makes the real decisions in Russia. Fourth, together with the leaders and countries who are here with us today, we’ve begun to create a new security architecture for Ukraine and all of Europe. I thank everyone who is on board. Now it’s time to move to very practical steps. And fifth — the United States. President Trump wants to end this war. We need to keep working closely with the President and stay as coordinated as possible. Long-term U.S. support is also essential. An American backstop is needed. It’s important that we all work together on every level to make that happen.

Of course, I will keep you informed throughout the day about what is happening in Istanbul and whether there’s any chance the Russian delegation will take real steps to stop the killing and bring the war to an end.

Thank you, Edi, again for the invitation.

First Lady Zelenska gave an interview to the author’s project by Marichka Padalko:

Georgia:

Day 170 of continuous protests in Tbilisi.
#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 4:25 PM

1/ Medical expert Givi Chkhartishvili stated that redness is not an objective sign of injury.

He examined Irakli Dgebuadze and Mzia Amaglobeli on January 12 and was testified today at the Mzia’s trial.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

3/ Mzia Amaglobeli, the founder and director of the online media outlets Batumelebi and Netgazeti, is currently in criminal detention for slapping Irakli Dgebuadze.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

3/ The expert stated that Irakli Dgebuadze did not display any objective signs of injury, whereas Mzia Amaglobeli had bruises on her left shoulder, which she sustained on January 12.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

4/ Regarding the redness, Chkhartishvili explained that since redness is not considered an objective sign of injury, he did not assess it or include it in his report.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

5/ He added that he does not recall whether Irakli Dgebuadze had any redness at the time of the examination, but even if he had remembered, he still would not have documented it.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

6/ “I probably have redness on my face right now, but no one hit me,” the expert said.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:51 AM

On May 16, in Batumi, Austrian Member of the European Parliament Lena Schilling(@lenaats.bsky.social) was attending the court hearing of the founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, journalist Mzia Amaglobeli.

Before the hearing began, Lena Schilling stated that she is in Batumi to support Mzia Amaglobeli

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 10:48 AM

🗣️ Ambassador of Sweden to Georgia, Anna Lyberg

On May 16, the ambassadors of Sweden, Germany, and Estonia to #Georgia attended the court hearing of journalist and founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, Mzia Amaglobeli, at the Batumi City Court.

#RepressionUnderAttack

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 11:36 AM

🗣️ Ambassador of Estonia to Georgia, Marge Mardisalu-Kahar.

On May 16, the ambassadors of Estonia, Sweden and Germany to #Georgia attended the court hearing of journalist and founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, Mzia Amaglobeli, at the Batumi City Court.

#RepressionUnderAttack

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 16, 2025 at 11:56 AM

Physical violence against family members of regime prisoners and their supporters is a new normal at the regime courts. #terrorinGeorgia

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 6:12 AM

The US:

“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump he’s engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere. And Trump is falling for it.”
w/ top crew @maxseddon.bsky.social @henryjfoy.ft.com @guychazan.bsky.social
www.ft.com/content/3a83…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 16, 2025 at 4:17 PM

From The Financial Times:

In parallel to a brutal war along a 1,000km front, Russia and Ukraine are locked in a titanic diplomatic battle to persuade Donald Trump that the other is the real impediment to peace.

So Vladimir Putin took a big risk over the last week, slow rolling US negotiators over a peace proposal, according to officials familiar with the discussions, then refusing to turn up for talks with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Turkey that he himself had publicly initiated.

So far, the Russian leader’s refusal to engage on terms set by others has been met with little resistance — and certainly not enough to compel concessions or alter the course of his war.

The clearest sign of that came when US President Donald Trump seemed to excuse the Russian leader’s no-show on Thursday and simultaneously questioned the whole point of the Russia-Ukraine talks, saying: “Nothing’s gonna happen until Putin and I get together.”

It was a gift to Putin, who has long sought a one-on-one meeting with a president determined to normalise US-Russian relations. For the Ukrainians, it revived their worst fears — that Trump will seek to cut a deal with Putin over their heads and sell Ukraine down the river.

“Putin is doing just enough to convince Trump that he is engaged in this effort to find peace in Ukraine, while also doing as much as possible to make sure it goes nowhere,” said a senior European diplomat involved in the negotiations between western capitals. “And Trump is falling for it.”

That suspicion is shared by some of America’s closest allies. Putin, German defence minister Boris Pistorius said this week, was “trying to lead the American president down the garden path” by refusing to come to Istanbul. “I’m pretty sure that the American president can’t be happy about that,” he told reporters in Berlin.

Much more at the link.

“The world will become much safer in 2–3 weeks,” Trump said. “I’ll meet with Putin as soon as we can arrange it,” he added.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:12 AM

The world will be no safer in two to three weeks than it is now. All that is going to happen is Putin is going to be able to drag things out for another two to three weeks.

Denial is not just a river in Egypt.

Obligatory:

Powerful op-ed by ex U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink:

“Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia…”

www.freep.com/story/opinio…

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 2:24 PM

From The Detroit Free Press:

I just came home to Michigan from three years in the toughest job of my life ― serving as the American Ambassador to Ukraine ― supporting our democratic ally against brutal, unprovoked aggression by Russia.

I have proudly served five presidents ― Republicans and Democrats ― to make sure the United States is the strongest, greatest country that the world has ever known.

I respect the president’s right and responsibility to determine U.S. foreign policy ― with proper checks and balances by U.S. Congress. It is the role of America’s Foreign Service to execute that policy. Unfortunately, the policy since the beginning of the Trump administration has been to put pressure on the victim, Ukraine, rather than on the aggressor, Russia.

As such, I could no longer in good faith carry out the administration’s policy and felt it was my duty to step down. After nearly three decades serving our country, I resigned as our ambassador to Ukraine.

I cannot stand by while a country is invaded, a democracy bombarded, and children killed with impunity. I believe that the only way to secure U.S. interests is to stand up for democracies and to stand against autocrats. Peace at any price is not peace at all ― it is appeasement. And history has taught us time and again that appeasement does not lead to safety, security or prosperity. It leads to more war and suffering.

Much more at the link.

Back to Ukraine.

JDAM air strike by MiG-29 on the Russian positions t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 9:04 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Crimea is detonating 👀🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:04 AM

Ammunition being ejected from the explosion site in Perevalne.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:45 AM

💥/1. Explosion at Russian military base in Pereval’ne in Crimea which was attacked by drones this morning.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:41 AM

/2. Another view on the detonation of the Russian military base in Perevalne, Crimea, after morning’s drone attack.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:49 AM

/3. Ammunition from detonating Russian military base flying in the air.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 4:26 AM

/4. Russian military films exploding military warehouses in Crimea

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 5:22 AM

Devastating blasts in Crimea: ammo depot in flames, major transport routes closures #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) May 16, 2025 at 10:30 AM

From UAWire:

Morning of May 16 began with reports of explosions near Simferopol, Sevastopol, and several other Crimean locations. Telegram channel Crimean Wind reported that an ammunition depot in Perevalnoye was set ablaze, leading authorities to shut down the Simferopol-Alushta highway, a major artery passing through the afflicted area.

Crimean Wind also posted a video showing what is purportedly the fire engulfing the ammunition store of Russia’s 126th Coastal Defense Brigade at Perevalnoye. According to Krym. Realii, the base suffered two prior assaults in 2023 alone. The channel further reported, citing reports from it subscribers, that the emergency services were heading towards the scene.

The Russian Ministry of Transport initially noted partial highway closures opening back up by 8 a.m. Moscow time.

Renowned OSINT source Dnipro Osint also confirmed that the videos posted by the Crimean Wind showed the fire at the 126th Brigade’s ammunition depot. A precise geo-int analysis concluded explosions occurred at a zone identified as a small vehicle park on the military premises.

The saga continued with reports of explosions reverberating throughout Yalta, Gurzuf, Alupka, Alushta, Cape Fiolent, Balaklava, Bakhchisaray, Kozachka, and the Belbek and Kacha airfields.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that 21 drones were intercepted over the peninsula, while an additional 43 were neutralized above the Black Sea waters.

Kupyansk:

Kupyansk and its surrounding areas were again targeted by Russian shelling last night, resulting in the injury of an 88-year-old woman.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:29 AM

Kyiv:

Woke to anti-aircraft gunfire and then loud but far off explosion in Kyiv this morning – video shows drone that was downed in west of Ukrainian capital. Wonder how “peace talks” will go today…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 12:42 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Ukrainian SSO fighters, Bombus Balista unit, hit a Russian Ka-52 helicopter with an FPV drone using remote detonation in Sukhinovka, Kursk Oblast. The aerial detonation occurred on approach to the target.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 1:35 PM

Approximately, Kursk direction: On May 15, Russians attacked with armor, infantry, moto/quad vehicles. Ukrainian 92nd Brigade defenders crushed them with mines, artillery, drones. In the air, Ukrainian forces smashed Russian gear.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 9:12 AM

Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian fighters of K-2 Battalion, 54th Brigade, keep destroying Russian “sheds” in Donetsk! Foggy landscapes are marked by smoke and dust from the wrecked scrap of Russia’s army.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 11:10 AM

Podolsk, Moscow Oblast:

Sounds of explosions were heard this morning in Podolsk, near Moscow.👀🔥

Russian media reports that warehouses caught fire at a machine testing station.

Local telegram channels say that at least three explosions were heard initially, followed by a fire and more detonations.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 7:12 AM

A sudden fire erupted at a machinery testing station warehouse near Moskow. Also, Crimean Wind reports explosions in Crimea: 126th Russian Coast Guard Brigade depots in Perevalne burn and detonate.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:01 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

🇺🇦🐶 I’m so happy to see you guys!

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 16, 2025 at 3:26 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,177: A Brief Friday Night UpdatePost + Comments (12)

Totally Out of the Loop Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  May 16, 20259:00 pm| 79 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

The past three days for me have been totally about trying to put my house back together after at least 3 weeks of disruption and chaos.  At this point, my closet room (small bedroom that I turned into a closet years ago) is a disaster, and I can barely step into the room because the floor is nearly covered.  At one point I thought, “oh this must be what it’s like to be a hoarder”, trying to find a spot where you can take the next step without tripping and hurting yourself.

And my dining room table is covered with stuff I have to deal with and put away…. somewhere?   Not to mention all the stuff I shoved under the dining table to get it out of the way while the work was being done.

So at this point, the chaos is now quarantined into those two areas, and the rest of the house feels more like a normal house again.  I have the weekend to get those two areas workable and live-able again.  It’s been a ton of work, and I have almost completely ignored the outside world.  It’s really hard for me to focus on anything when I am surrounded by chaos.  Guessing that most of us are that way?

Except that a couple of times a day I look to make sure it hasn’t been 8 hours since the last post, and then I read a couple of lines of the top post and find out the next totally unbelievable over-the-too crap that is being done in the name of government.  Holy shit, they aren’t drowning it in a bathtub, when they aren’t setting it on fire they are bludgeoning it to death.

I find myself hoping that some good stuff has happened, too, and also hoping you guys can share some of those things in the comments.

What have you guys been up to?  I had a humorous moment yesterday when the nice Amish man who put in the hardwood floor came to move the furniture back.  About halfway through that process he said “I was really surprised to see your sign” and I’m thinking, “what sign?  I don’t have a sign”, and then I wondered if he mean my “NO KINGS in America since 1776” bumper sticker.  He must have seen the quizzical look cross my face because he gestured toward something in the living room.

Then I knew!  I have a nameplate (where your name and possibly job title would normally be) that says:

LET ME FILE THAT UNDER

fuck it

As I was taking all that in, he said “You seem like such a nice lady that …”, and I laughed and said “I thought it was funny!” and he said “I did, too.”

So we had our little moment.  He was surprised that this nice lady would have that sign, and I was surprised that the nice Amish man thought it was funny, too.

Open thread.

Totally Out of the Loop Open ThreadPost + Comments (79)

Squid Game (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  May 16, 20252:28 pm| 209 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

These are some deeply twisted, horrible people.

DHS Is Considering Reality Show Where Immigrants Compete for Citizenship
‘This isn’t ‘The Hunger Games’ for immigrants,’ says the producer behind the pitch

WSJ (gift link) — The Department of Homeland Security is considering being part of a television show in which immigrants would compete for potential U.S. citizenship, an idea the producer pitched as far back as the Obama administration.

Department spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin said she had spoken to the producer of the proposed television reality show and that consideration of the idea was ongoing.

It is “in the very beginning stages of that vetting process,” she said, adding, “Each proposal undergoes a thorough vetting process prior to denial or approval.”

Pro-tip for show pitchers: if you’re obligated to put a “it’s not The Hunger Games” disclaimer on your pitch, throw the pitch in the bin, and then go back and rethink every life choice that led you to this moment.

The pitch for the proposed citizenship-competition show comes from Rob Worsoff, a producer and writer whose credits include the “Duck Dynasty” reality show. Worsoff, who emigrated from Canada, told The Wall Street Journal that the show is meant to be hopeful and a celebration of what it means to be an American citizen.

Oh, the guy who thrust the mumbling right-wing “Duck Dynasty” dipshits into public consciousness. Worsoff says he pitched the show to DHS under Obama and Biden but “the project didn’t come together.” Probably because it’s a profoundly grotesque idea.

The reality TV genre has a lot to answer for, including the shitty current president.

***

In other news from the WSJ, Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” failed to make it out of committee in the GOP-controlled House:

WASHINGTON—House Republican spending hawks blocked the party’s giant tax-and-spending bill on Friday, delivering President Trump a setback over disagreements on Medicaid, clean-energy tax breaks and budget deficits.

They’ll take another swing at it next week. I figure something small and ugly will eventually emerge. Trump is having a hissy fit on his janky knock-off Twitter clone, shrieking GRANDSTANDERS at the so-called fiscal hawks, who will almost certainly cave eventually. There’s not enough vertebrae among the 220 members of that caucus to form a single spine.

Open thread.

Squid Game (Open Thread)Post + Comments (209)

Lunch Among the Ruins (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  May 16, 202511:14 am| 251 Comments

This post is in: Food & Recipes, Open Threads, Politics

I met some family for lunch in Cedar Key, a remote coastal community that was devastated by a brush with Hurricane Helene last year while still recovering from the walloping it received the season before from Hurricane Idalia. The town is slowly recovering.

The storm surge washed out a bridge that leads to the main waterfront drag, Dock Street. Workers were paving the rebuilt bridge yesterday, so that’s progress.

Some buildings containing restaurants, shops, etc., on the Gulf (of MEXICO) side are still in shambles, but a few places have reopened.

Empty piers in the water where a wooden building once stood. Adjacent buildings have visible damage.

Dog help Cedar Key if it gets hit again this year. The malicious, corrupt idiot Trump put in charge of DHS immediately gutted FEMA, and the agency is wholly unprepared for hurricane season. It starts in two weeks.

***

On the way there, I listened to a This American Life episode that originally aired a few months ago called “Ten Things I Don’t Want to Hate About You.” It was about a son’s wager with his delusional Trumpist father.

In January 2024, the father bet the son $10K that 10 predictions the dad made would happen by December 31, 2024. The predictions were kooky stuff like Biden, Obama and the Clintons would be convicted of treason, martial law would be declared in the U.S., etc.

The son took the bet hoping that when the dad’s delusions were revealed as false, he would finally have an epiphany. I don’t think it’s a spoiler to reveal that the scales did not fall from the dad’s eyes.

He concluded his timing was just off, though, to his credit, he gamely paid up. Meanwhile, over the course of that year, the family basically fell apart due to the father’s pig-headed delusions.

It reminded me a little of a conversation in comments here recently. Those of us with MAGA family members know — there’s no changing their minds. The question is will you disown your relatives or not. Some do, some don’t. Same with the family in the podcast episode.

***

Speaking of family, my spouse and I have an anniversary coming up at the end of the month. It’s not a big-deal round number anniversary, but we are planning to throw a small party anyway, just a few friends and family members here at the swamp compound.

We have many talented cooks among the commentariat, so I thought I’d ask y’all for hors d’oeuvres suggestions. It will mostly be outdoors, and I don’t want to spend a lot of time fussing over things when guests are here, so I’m thinking room temperature things that can be made in advance would be ideal.

Thanks in advance!

Open thread.

Lunch Among the Ruins (Open Thread)Post + Comments (251)

Friday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  May 16, 20258:18 am| 171 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You

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— Mike Luckovich (@mluckovich.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:54 PM

From a Puck email, Abby Livingston on “Johnson’s Reality Bites”:

Speaker Mike Johnson’s “big, beautiful bill” is the largest, most complicated legislative push since Obamacare, which took more than 14 months to pass with much larger Democratic margins in both chambers. We’re not there quite yet—but while Johnson seems determined to meet his self-imposed Memorial Day deadline to get the G.O.P. tax plan passed in the House, reality is beginning to dawn on K Street and Capitol Hill Republicans.

Every step in the process is proving time-consuming and difficult: Freedom Caucus members are signaling that they’re not above pulling their support as a negotiating tactic. As we foresaw back in November, members of the SALT caucus are also playing hardball. And some preferred Medicaid cuts could imperil the seats of vulnerable incumbents such as California’s David Valadao; ditto SALT stinginess for New York’s Mike Lawler, who’s fighting tooth and nail to raise the deduction.

There’s a growing fear that the legislation moving through the House right now could create new opportunities for Democrats. Republican Andrew Garbarino’s recent admission that he will be politically doomed if the SALT deduction cap isn’t raised touched on a legitimate concern shared by Republicans I’ve spoken with, as well as Garbarino’s Long Island neighbor Nick LaLota. Theirs were not previously thought to be competitive races. Hovering over all these decision points is the perennial concern that Johnson could force his members to pass a bill with unpopular provisions, only for the more moderate Senate to sink it.

They need a catchy title for this.
How about: The Kill the Children, the Old and the Needy to Make the Rich Richer Act of 2025?
House Republicans Push Forward Plan to Cut Taxes, Medicaid and Food Aid

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— davidrlurie (@davidrlurie.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 6:04 AM

Friday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (171)

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread : Shut Up, Comey

by Anne Laurie|  May 16, 20254:18 am| 134 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I don’t know why he did it, but James Comey (who has a novel coming out) posted this pic on Insta today and the right wing marketplace is screaming that it’s a death threat (86 47).

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— David S. Bernstein (@dbernstein.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 5:15 PM

Apparently ’86’ is restaurant slang for ‘get rid of’. Eighty-six that ribeye,it’s too far gone even to sell as ‘well-done’. Quite the wag, our boy Jim; if all publicity is good publicity…

"We are aware of the recent social media post by former FBI Director James Comey, directed at President Trump. We are in communication with the Secret Service and Director Curran,” says FBI Director Kash Patel, reacting to Comey’s “86 47” seashell arrangement on Instagram.

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— Steve Herman ?? (@newsguy.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 7:27 PM

Dank Grey Dawn Open Thread : Shut Up, ComeyPost + Comments (134)

War for Ukraine Day 1,176: Happy Vyshyvanka Day!

by Adam L Silverman|  May 15, 202510:30 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Quick housekeeping note: I’m fried. It was another long day. Not bad, just very long. So I’m going to just run through the basics so I can get cleaned up and rack out.

What they doin ova der is Vyvyshanka Day!

Vyshyvanka Day in Kharkiv ❤️🇺🇦

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 11:08 AM

Vyshyvanka is the genetic code of Ukrainians💛

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:00 PM

President Zelenskyy traveled to Turkiye today. He met with Erdogan and also held a press conference. Here’s that video:

show full post on front page

First Lady Zelenska traveled to Volyn Oblast for the Day of Joint Action as part of Mental Health Awareness Month.

Georgia:

Rustaveli avenue is blocked for the 169th night in a row, despite cold and spring rain. ✅ #GeorgiaProtests

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 1:58 PM

Please, have a look at the unlimited sadistic imagination of the regime police in Georgia. Personal stories below. #terrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:05 PM

And this. bsky.app/profile/rusu…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:06 PM

GD seems to be preparing grounds for expelling Western diplomats.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 4:50 AM

The US:

Donald Trump has said that “nothing is going to happen” on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal until he and Vladimir Putin meet, damping expectations for talks between Russian and Ukrainian ministers due in Turkey.
www.ft.com/content/a590…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 15, 2025 at 11:14 AM

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

Donald Trump has said that “nothing is going to happen” on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal until he and Vladimir Putin meet, damping down expectations for talks between Russian and Ukrainian ministers due in Turkey.

The US president’s comments threatened to thrust the latest peace efforts into disarray, as Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were set to meet for the first time since 2022.

“Look, nothing’s going to happen until Putin and I get together, OK?” Trump told reporters on Air Force One before landing in the United Arab Emirates on Thursday as part of his Middle East tour. He said Putin “obviously . . . wasn’t going to go” unless the US president was also in attendance.

Trump’s remarks were later echoed by US secretary of state Marco Rubio, who said the US did not have “high expectations of what will happen tomorrow”.

Speaking in Turkey, where he is attending a meeting of Nato foreign ministers, Rubio said the US had hoped there would be “direct engagement” between the Russians and Ukrainians.

“That was not to be the case, or if it is, it’s not at the levels we had hoped it would be at,” he said.

“I frankly do not believe that we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump sits face to face with President Putin and determines what his intentions are.”

Trump had previously said he was open to taking a detour for the talks in Turkey, but decided not to after the Russian president made clear at the eleventh hour that he would not attend.

“I don’t believe anything’s going to happen, whether you like it or not, until he and I get together,” Trump said on Thursday. “But we’re going to have to get it solved because too many people are dying.”

More at the link.

I want to focus in on this bit:

“I frankly do not believe that we’re going to have a breakthrough here until President Trump sits face to face with President Putin and determines what his intentions are.”

Putin’s intentions are very simple: to take Ukraine, to genocidally destroy everything in it and about it that is unique, and absorb into not just Russia, but his concept of the Ruskiy Mir/Russian world. Then after both stealing Ukraine and its resources, as well as destroying its culture and society, use it as a stepping stone to retake the other parts of the Soviet Union or imperial Russia that Putin believes either are Russia or are part of Russia’s historic near abroad and sphere of influence. The Baltics, Finland, Moldova, Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, etc. That’s Putin’s intent. It is not hard to discern because he routinely spends hours at a time expounding on it on live Russian TV.

The US is proposing to resume the work of the Russia-NATO Council “within the framework of a Ukrainian settlement.”

It’s worth recalling that at the same time, Ukraine’s allies will likely not invite Zelenskyy to the NATO summit in order to avoid angering Trump.
🤯🤯🤯

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 8:36 AM

“Why would Putin go if I’m not going?”
🤦‍♀️🤡

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 6:16 AM

Again, more Western pressure on Ukraine to compromise (being told to send high-ranking officials to meet a 3rd-tier Russian delegation) rather than punishment for fascist Russia for making a mockery of the peace process.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:40 PM

As bad as Biden and his natsec team were on Ukraine, this is worse. Because for Trump and, as a result, for his natsec team, Ukraine isn’t a subject to be interacted with, but an object to be manipulated so that Trump can do some sort of deal with Putin, which is what he’s been trying to do since the beginning of his first term.

Back to Ukraine.

❗️“We have a top-level delegation, while the Russian one looks more like a mock-up,” – Zelensky.

“We’ll see whether they even have a mandate to make decisions. After my meeting with Erdoğan, we’ll reassess the format.”

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) May 15, 2025 at 5:20 AM

As the circus in Istanbul continues, russia just launched over 100 drones onto Ukraine, and the number is expected to increase.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:52 PM

I just learned that callsign “white” (Белый), the commander of the Akhmat unit who in the summer of 2022 “castrated” and murdered a Ukrainian POW, has been reported dead. Happy Vyshyvanka Day.

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— Michael Sheldon (@michaelsheldon.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:29 PM

Good riddance to bad rubbish.

Optic fiber drones inspect Russian base with tanks from the inside. t.me/BBpS_28/827

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 4:06 PM

Russian assault group in thermal cloaks destroyed by the 63rd Brigade. t.me/DeepStateUA/…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 12:50 PM

HUR also showed it’s Magura naval drone with an installed machine gun.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 7:15 AM

Kharkiv:

Every single day in Kharkiv region:

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 5:58 PM

Sumy:

Authorities in Sumy warn Russia is planning to attack the city about now, and say they even have information about the targets from intelligence sources – 7 and 9 Pryvokzalna Square, and 2 Shevchenko Avenue. They urge people to leave the areas.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 10:11 AM

Update:

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 3:47 PM

Lysychansk:

✈️💣 The destruction of the command post of an entire Russian regiment in a residential area of ​​Lysychansk by the crew of Su-27, – Soniashnyk

🔝It is claimed that this is a record-breaking airstrike, as the damage was inflicted 60 km from the front line.

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 11:12 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

In the morning, unidentified missiles completely destroyed a bridge in the village of Snagost, Kursk region — but the Russians are having a great time nonetheless.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 15, 2025 at 8:58 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight.

Here is some adjacent material.

🇺🇦 Biopark in Odesa is when you don’t have to fly to Africa! ✈️ 🐾
Here you can see lions, giraffes, zebras, meerkats and even kangaroos almost without cages! 🦁🦒🦓
Animals live in spacious enclosures, and some can be fed directly from the hands 🥕

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:47 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,176: Happy Vyshyvanka Day!Post + Comments (12)

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