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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Jack Smith: “Why did you start campaigning in the middle of my investigation?!”

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Anyone who bans teaching American history has no right to shape America’s future.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

“They all knew.”

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

Fundamental belief of white supremacy: white people are presumed innocent, minorities are presumed guilty.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Giving in to doom is how we fail to fight for ourselves & one another.

You are so fucked. Still, I wish you the best of luck.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

SCOTUS: It’s not “bribery” unless it comes from the Bribery region of France. Otherwise, it’s merely “sparkling malfeasance”.

I did not have this on my fuck 2025 bingo card.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Not all heroes wear capes.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Lest We Forget: Kilmar Abrego Garcia

by Anne Laurie|  May 15, 20256:54 pm| 93 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Immigration, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

The Supreme Court ordered Wilmar Abrego Garcia returned to the U.S. over a month ago.
Trump is STILL defying them.

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— Jon Cryer (@mrjoncryer.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 3:08 PM

Excellent expose from the Washington Post: “Trump’s 48-hour scramble to fly migrants to a Salvadoran prison” [gift link]:

The message from Secretary of State Marco Rubio to El Salvador’s Foreign Ministry outlined an audacious plan: The United States would be sending as many as 500 Venezuelan gang members to the Central American nation, and it planned to do so within 24 hours.

The March 13 communication was part of secretive negotiations with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele and served as Rubio’s formal notice that the Trump administration was sending the Venezuelans to be imprisoned there for a year “or until a determination concerning their long-term disposition is made,” documents show. Detainees at the megaprison have no access to lawyers or contact with their families.

A Washington Post investigation shows how officials raced to execute the plan, rounding up some of the men at their homes the same day Rubio’s message went out. And they pressed forward with the removals, even as Venezuela agreed to accept deportation flights, in a high-stakes bid to show power and deter migrants from attempting to cross the border illegally.

The Post examined immigration and court records, and conducted interviews with attorneys, friends and family members, to piece together information about more than 50 of the men believed to be imprisoned at the Terrorism Confinement Center, the megaprison often referred to by its Spanish acronym, CECOT. The review shows that despite the administration’s claims, many of the immigrants sent to El Salvador had entered the United States legally and were actively complying with U.S. immigration rules…

Per the Bulwark, “Kilmar Is a Symbol Now – And the White House is desperately trying to fight it”:

… Why is the White House working so hard to smear this man, even after the administration acknowledged it wrongly deported him to a prison in El Salvador known for human rights abuses? After defying a unanimous U.S. Supreme Court order to facilitate his return, the administration has become obsessed with winning the public-relations fight over who Abrego Garcia is, because We accidentally sent a Maryland dad to a foreign torture prison and can’t be bothered to get him back doesn’t poll well outside the extreme MAGA fringe. In the administration’s thinking, Abrego Garcia must be a villain—and in their telling, he’s a dangerous gang member no one should want to bring back into the country…

show full post on front page


FreeKilmar and ‘Bring Kilmar Home’ are born

Amir Fallah is an artist who exhibits his work around the world. One of his pieces is currently being shown at the de Young Museum in San Francisco. Called “You Can’t Use an Old Map to Explore New Worlds,” it’s pretty badass.

Fallah’s neighbor is Chris Newman, one of the lawyers working on Abrego Garcia’s behalf. Fallah’s and Newman’s kids are best friends.

When the National Day Laborer Organizing Network (NDLON), where Newman serves as general counsel, needed help to get the word out about their April 19 call to action for artists to create works about the injustice of Abrego Garcia’s case, Newman knew whom to call…

Lest We Forget: Wilmar Abrego Garcia

Protestors call for the release of Maryland resident Kilmar Abrego Garcia, who was deported to CECOT prison in El Salvador before the administration of US President Donald Trump admitted he was sent there due to an “administrative error,” outside the Metropolitan Detention Center of the Federal Bureau of Prisons during a May Day Workers Unite! march in Los Angeles, California, on May 1, 2025. (Photo by PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Getty Images)

Lest We Forget: Kilmar Abrego GarciaPost + Comments (93)

We Are Just Incubators

by TaMara|  May 15, 20253:37 pm| 106 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This is what they want:

A pregnant Georgia woman who was declared brain-dead is being kept alive by ventilators because of the state’s law banning abortions, the woman’s mother says, telling local news that the family has no say in the matter.

===

Newkirk told the station that her daughter is currently 21 weeks pregnant.

“It should have been left up to the family,” Newkirk said, telling the station that doctors informed the family they are legally not allowed to consider any other options.

“I’m not saying that we would have chose to terminate her pregnancy, but what I’m saying is, we should have had a choice,” she said.

A spokesperson for Emory Healthcare said it “uses consensus from clinical experts, medical literature, and legal guidance to support our providers as they make individualized treatment recommendations in compliance with Georgia’s abortion laws and all other applicable laws.”

“Our top priorities continue to be the safety and wellbeing of the patients we serve,” the spokesperson said.

Newkirk said the family is also having to deal with the financial responsibility of keeping Smith on life support.

They are fucking ghouls. But we knew that.

Open thread

We Are Just IncubatorsPost + Comments (106)

Political Wins Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  May 15, 202512:28 pm| 135 Comments

This post is in: Democratic Response to Trump 2.0, LGBTQ Rights, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Winning Omaha mayor by 12… whoo boy. RIP Don Bacon.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 10:47 AM

Omaha's result comes weeks after a series of major losses in school board elections for conservatives who championed attacks on trans kids:

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— Taniel (@taniel.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:41 PM

And important to note the Dem ran against the Repubs for being anti-trans.

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— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:10 AM

Remember, claim that Dems are dumping on trans people is absolute bullshit, & fuck off to anyone who says they are. In House 2 Dems (from border districts in TX) voted for trans athlete bill & 204 voted no, then all 47 Sen Dems filibustered & killed it
Because it’s right, & bc it’s winning politics

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— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:34 AM

Political Wins Open ThreadPost + Comments (135)

Squishable Morning Thread

by Betty Cracker|  May 15, 20257:58 am| 243 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Sewer swimmer and family disgrace RFK Jr. appeared before a Congressional committee yesterday to answer questions about HHS budget appropriations. It did not go well.

In this clip, Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) notes several instances where Kennedy made commitments to protect public health in earlier appearances and then undermined public health via subsequent actions as head of HHS.

RFK Jr starts having a tantrum as Chris Murphy details how he lied during his confirmation hearing about his anti-vax views

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) May 14, 2025 at 2:45 PM

I like the way Murphy slipped in the phrase “whether you know it or not” because claiming ignorance about what’s happening under his watch is Kennedy’s preferred brand of squid ink. Also, kudos to Murphy for using “panoply” correctly in a sentence, which seemed to increase Kennedy’s confusion.

Congresswoman Rosa DeLauro (D-CT) cuts to the heart of the matter in this clip by extracting an admission from Kennedy that Congress is supposed to have the “power of the purse.” She then tries to pin Kennedy down on a commitment to restore billions in illegally rescinded NIH funding.

DeLAURO: Are you planning to break the law by impounding appropriated funds?

RFK Jr: If you appropriate the funds, I'm going to spend them

D: We have! You're cutting the NIH by $18b. Congress appropriated those funds. How can you justify cutting billions from the biomedical research budget?

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) May 14, 2025 at 10:20 AM

DeLauro wraps up her remarks by muttering “unbelievable” in response to Kennedy’s dissembling. It applies to every word he says. Kudos to both Nutmeg State lawmakers for exposing the repulsive fraud!

Rep. Mark Pocan (D-WI) also extracted a startling admission from Kennedy (CBS News):

When asked hypothetically if he would vaccinate his children today for measles during a House hearing Wednesday, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said “probably,” but added he doesn’t think people should be taking medical advice from him.

“My opinions about vaccines are irrelevant,” he said in response to the question from Democratic Rep. Mark Pocan of Wisconsin during the House Appropriations Committee hearing. “I don’t want to seem like I’m being evasive, but I don’t think people should be taking medical advice from me.”

When pressed, he repeated he didn’t want to give advice to other people.

“But that’s kind of your jurisdiction, because CDC does give advice, right?” Pocan asked. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is under HHS.

So basically Kennedy admits he’s not qualified for his current job, which was probably the one true thing he said yesterday. There’s something deeply off about RFK Jr. The Trump administration is a full employment program for wealthy and connected sociopaths.

Open thread.

Squishable Morning ThreadPost + Comments (243)

Late Night Open Thread: Made Men

by Anne Laurie|  May 15, 20252:38 am| 58 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads

He 100% can’t tell them apart. ??

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— dats_moy (@dats-moy.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 10:35 AM

After selling us out in Saudi Arabia, we were sold in Qatar. The WH “fact sheet” is just gaslighting. All it does is mentioning “some deals” as an example, like “Boeing receiving $96B order from Qatar Air”; “Parsons securing projects for 97B”, this is then presented as “securing US jobs”
Part 2 ??

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— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) May 14, 2025 at 12:19 PM

The “fact sheet” ends with this

“As the dealmaker in chief, President Trump’s latest achievement in Qatar is another win for America.”

How? Our security is compromised and major businesses dependent on ONE COUNTRY as the money source.

It’s just “sale, everything must go” vibes.

— Olga Nesterova (@onestpress.onestnetwork.com) May 14, 2025 at 12:24 PM

William Kristol, at the Bulwark == “Autocrats, Kleptocrats, Plutocrats… Oh My!”:

… Saudi Arabia was an appropriate destination for Donald Trump’s first foreign trip in his second term as president. He chose to visit not a democracy but a despotism; not a free nation but one of the world’s most unfree; not a land of tolerance but of repression.

And Trump made it clear yesterday that he did not consider these features unfortunate or undesirable aspects of life under the House of Saud. There was not a hint of criticism or even of hesitation in the fulsome praise Trump heaped upon his hosts. The American president admires the Saudi achievements in autocracy, plutocracy, and kleptocracy…

And Trump emphasized that the achievements of Saudi Arabia that he admires have nothing to do with democratic principles or ideas of freedom. Quite the opposite. He disparaged those who supported efforts at democratization and liberalization in the region—“the so-called nation builders, neocons, or liberal nonprofits.”

“It’s crucial,” he said, “for the wider world to know this great transformation has not come from Western intervention or . . . lectures on how to live and how to govern your own affairs.”…

Josh Marshall, at TPM — “Personalization, The Vastly Bigger Story Behind the Pimpmobile Jet Bribe”:

… The U.S. isn’t down at the heels and in need of a hand-out plane. We could buy a million planes. In fact, it’s a Boeing plane the Qataris have dangled in front of Trump. So in a basic way, we actually sold it to them in the first place. We’re here because one guy, Donald Trump, really, really likes luxury things. And beyond liking luxury things, he likes people giving him luxury things. Having to buy takes half the fun out of it. In any real sense, for the U.S. government, having to retrofit the pimpmobile plane is more trouble than it’s worth. This is about Trump wanting the pimpmobile plane…

… [T]his whole trip is really about Trump, along with the Saudis and the Qataris. It’s about doing business. Trump’s business. And there’s another aspect of it. You notice Elon’s there? And so is his rival, OpenAI’s Sam Altman. And it’s actually a similar cast of characters to the ones we saw at the inauguration. Jensen Huang, the head of Nvidia, is there too, as is the Ruth Porat, the president and chief investment officer of Alphabet (parent company of Google). Bezos isn’t there. But the new CEO of Amazon Andrew Jassy is. The Times piece shows a genuinely staggering list of CEOs who are part of this trip, the CEOs of IBM, Boeing, Palantir, Halliburton, Citigroup and a bunch of others.

show full post on front page

Now in fairness, trade delegations have always played a role in these visits. But this is at a totally, totally different level. In fact, if you step back, you see that this entire visit isn’t mostly about U.S. foreign policy at all. Trump is bringing “his” CEOs and everyone is cutting deals. And as the top dog, Trump is cutting his too — and to be clear, not as President of the United States, but as Trump. Eric Trump has already been in Qatar inking a whole slew of new deals with the country’s royal family.

This is the right way to understand the 747 pimpmobile “gift.” It’s basically a sweetener to get a whole series of business and consummated relationships over the finish line, and yes a few of them are tied to the U.S. government. In a real sense, the sales of military hardware are the payback for the personal business deals. Calling it a “bribe” almost doesn’t do it justice. It’s more like the decked-out Maserati one Fortune 50 CEO gives to another after they ink a $100 billion merger — a kind of token of appreciation for a vastly larger transaction, which in the case of Trump involves subverting U.S. foreign policy to the interests not only of Trump’s pocketbook but cementing his power within the U.S. If Trump can use his power as President to cut in all the big CEOs on the money geyser in Saudi Arabia, you can bet they are going to stay securely on his side in the U.S.

If we step a bit further back still we see this is where the meaning and the symbolism of the murderers row of tech oligarchs at the inauguration really comes into fruition. This is government, at home and abroad, of, for and by the oligarchs. If Elissa Slotkin doesn’t want me to say “oligarchs,” fine. We’ll focus on Trump wanting to be king. That’s another reason why he likes those folks — even the ones who bankroll Hamas. They’re kings. They get it. They’re Trump’s kinda guys.

Late Night Open Thread 22

{Clay Jones via GoComics,com}

Late Night Open Thread: Made MenPost + Comments (58)

War for Ukraine Day 1,175: Putin Isn’t Going to Turkey Because He’s a Big (Little) Chicken

by Adam L Silverman|  May 14, 202510:31 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: The good news is that today went far better than I expected, but it was still long and I’m exhausted. So I’m just going to run through the basics.

As of 9:55 PM EDT/4:55 AM local time in Ukraine air raid alerts are up over almost all of central and western Ukraine for Russian drone swarms.

Putin is not going to Turkey to meet with President Zelenskyy:

Trump will have to generate an infeasibly massive amount of spin to be able to blame Zelensky for Putin chickening out of the Turkey talks.

www.bbc.com/news/article…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM

From The BBC:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is not among the names listed by the Kremlin as being due to attend peace talks on the war in Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday, despite calls from Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky for him to attend.

Russia’s delegation will instead be headed by presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky, according to the Kremlin statement.

Zelensky had previously said he would attend the talks and meet Putin in person if the Russian president agreed, and said he would do everything he could to ensure the face-to-face meeting took place.

US President Donald Trump will also not be attending, according to media reports, despite previously hinting he would if Putin were there.

Zelensky will be in the Turkish capital Ankara on Thursday to meet President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

He said he would attend direct talks in Istanbul with Russia, but only if Putin also attended.

“I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing,” he said in his nightly video address on Wednesday.

Putin and Zelensky have not met in person since December 2019. Russia and Ukraine last held direct negotiations in March 2022 in Istanbul, shortly after Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of its neighbour.

Fighting has raged in Ukraine since then. Russian forces have slowly expanded the amount of territory they control over the past year, mostly in the east of Ukraine.

On Sunday Putin called for direct talks between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey’s largest city “without pre-conditions”. Zelensky then announced he would go in person and expected the Russian president to travel as well.

Putin’s suggestion of direct talks in Istanbul followed Western powers’ call for a 30-day ceasefire, after European leaders met in Kyiv on Saturday.

After Trump called for Ukraine to accept the offer on Sunday, Zelensky said he would travel there himself.

“There is no point in prolonging the killings. And I will be waiting for Putin in Türkiye on Thursday. Personally,” Zelensky wrote in a social media post.

More at the link.

Putin not attending was the most foregone of conclusions.

When delegations meet in Istanbul:

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:05 PM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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I Am Waiting to See Who Will Come From Russia, and Then I Will Decide Which Steps Ukraine Should Take – Address by the President

14 May 2025 – 20:11

Dear Ukrainians!

Briefly about today. I want to thank the defenders of our skies for protecting us from “Shahed” drones and all other attack UAVs. Over a hundred “Shaheds” were launched overnight – a significant number were shot down. Not all of them, but every successful shoot-down saves our people and protects our infrastructure. There were also missile strikes today – Russian ballistics. While the whole world awaits a simple “yes” from Putin in response to the offer of direct talks – he continues to strike Ukraine. There is no military logic behind this. This is clear. It brings him nothing – and it never will. Russia is only prolonging the war, prolonging these killings. And I want to thank every country, every leader who is now putting pressure on Russia, so that the shelling finally stops, so that meaningful negotiations can take place at a level where real decisions can be made. To everyone helping peace and helping diplomacy – thank you.

Today, there was a very important statement from Pope Leo XIV, expressing the Vatican’s willingness to play a mediatory role. The Vatican can help diplomacy. There is support for a direct meeting from Global South leaders – and that voice is being heard. We also know China’s position regarding a ceasefire and negotiations. The position of the United States and Europe is absolutely clear. In fact, it is now more evident than ever to everyone in the world since the beginning of the full-scale war – it is evident that the sole remaining obstacle to peace is Russia’s lack of clear will to do it.

Today, we held several meetings with the team regarding the format in Türkiye. I am waiting to see who will come from Russia, and then I will decide which steps Ukraine should take. So far, the signals from them in the media are unconvincing. But we also hear that President Trump is considering attending the meeting in Türkiye. That could become the strongest argument. This week really may change a lot — but only may… Everything is being decided right now.

I want to commend our warriors. At this time, it is very important. Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered reports today on the situation at the front – across all directions. Every day, there are over a hundred battles. The heaviest fighting is in the Pokrovsk sector and other areas in our Donetsk region. We are continuing our active operations in the Kursk and Belgorod regions – we are proactively defending Ukraine’s border areas. But all these combat actions are not our choice – they are our defense, defense against the occupier. The answers to all the questions about this war – why it began and why it continues – all these answers lie in Moscow. How the war ends depends on the world. Ukraine is ready for any format of negotiations, and we are not afraid of meetings. Tomorrow – in Türkiye.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 168. They tried to prevent us from closing Rustaveli, our basal threshold of protesting. As we say, “Rustaveli is indispensable but insufficient [to defeat the regime]”

Much more people rushed out than on a daily basis lately.

“Until the end!” – we chant.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:54 PM

The police had the order to arrest disobeying ones today as they wanted to prevent the Rustaveli blocking.

And look at those people just promenading their way into the street, unbothered. 💃🏻

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:30 PM

1/ Levan Tsutskiridze, chairman of the political organisation Freedom Square, says that over the past two months, they have been denied registration as a political party twice by the National Agency of Public Registry.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM

2/ According to him, this reflects Georgian Dream’s fear of new political forces and individuals “who enter politics with a clean record.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM

3/ This resolution is one of the changes mentioned by Mamuka Mdinaradze in his discussions about declaring the United National Movement and its satellite parties unconstitutional.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:29 AM

Georgia’s student movements call on the opposition to not participate in the upcoming October local elections.

“We must not break the isolation the regime finds itself in. The opposition’s participation in the local elections would amount to granting legitimacy to the regime.”

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 5:11 AM

A 32-year-old participant of #GeorgiaProtests recalls rape threats against himself & family by police during December 2 crackdown.

They threatened to rape him with fireworks and told in graphic details what they would do to his wife and children as they would learn his address.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:31 PM

The US:

“The Americans had this simplistic idea — let’s charm Russia, put pressure on Zelenskyy, and we’ll get a deal,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the US to whom Vance made his comment at last week’s forum. “It turned out that simply charming Russia is not enough.”

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) May 14, 2025 at 12:35 AM

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

When US vice-president JD Vance was asked about the war in Ukraine at a foreign policy forum in Washington last week, diplomats were expecting Maga-style criticism of Kyiv and veiled sympathy for Russia.

Instead, they heard something quite different. Vance said of a set of Russian proposals to end the conflict: “We think they’re asking for too much.”

Attendees were surprised. Vance was one of the main protagonists in the now infamous Oval Office showdown in February, when he tore into Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and accused him of failing to show enough gratitude to the US for its support — a scene that seemed to presage a complete rupture in relations between Kyiv and Washington.

Vance’s comments were part of a noticeable shift in tone by the Trump administration. US officials appear increasingly impatient with Vladimir Putin, as suspicions grow that the Russian leader, rather than Zelenskyy, may be the biggest obstacle to peace.

“The Americans had this simplistic idea — let’s charm Russia, put pressure on Zelenskyy, and we’ll get a deal,” said Wolfgang Ischinger, the former German ambassador to the US to whom Vance made his comment at last week’s forum. “It turned out that simply charming Russia is not enough.”

But Trump’s most desired objective — a ceasefire that could lead to peace negotiations and an end to the war — has so far eluded him. Putin has rejected international calls to halt the fighting, despite threats from western powers — including the US — of tough new sanctions.

Russia’s apparent intransigence is proving an irritant to Trump, say observers. “You hear the frustration in [his] communication,” said Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia. “He may be understanding that he has given up too much and not gotten anything in return.”

“Trump definitely sees that Putin isn’t playing ball,” said Eric Green, a former aide to president Joe Biden at the National Security Council who is now a non-resident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think-tank. “But I’m not convinced that the consequence of that is going to be meaningful pressure on Putin.”

Ischinger said he was “delighted” that Vance had shifted on Russia and that the US and European positions on the war in Ukraine were “converging”. But the former German ambassador to the US added that the vice-president “didn’t take the next logical step, which would have been to say we now need to really turn the screws on Russia”.

Experts say Russia, meanwhile, is banking on the US president losing patience with the peace process. “Putin’s playing a long game and thinks he has time on his side,” said McFaul. “He’s calculating that Trump will lose interest and the Americans will cut off military assistance, and that will make the Ukrainian army weaker,” the former US ambassador to Russia said.

Others believe that the danger of the US president abandoning Ukraine has diminished in recent weeks.

Thomas Graham, a distinguished fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and a former senior director for Russia on the National Security Council staff, said Trump would struggle to achieve one of his main goals — a reset of relations with Russia — without first resolving the problem of Ukraine.

“There’s too much at stake,” he said. “Yes, he could still walk away from Ukraine — but if he does that it would look too much like failure.”

More at the link.

To properly monitor or peacekeep, the coalition of willing forces must be on the frontline. If they are positioned “west of the Dnipro River,” then to me, as a citizen of a city in the far east,it sounds like the coalition is prepared to watch us burn—just to avoid any confrontation with Russia 1/3

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM

But what are you even going to do here if your goal is to… hide? This reminds me of the OSCE monitoring mission in Donbas during the Minsk process. That was a “Carpathian resorts mission” or “drinking the nights away in Kharkiv clubs mission”. But if someone died in Donbas
2/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM

—which happened every day—oh well! Why did he stand where Russians were dropping grenades from their drones? Idiot. That was their “monitoring.” We do not need more of it.
3/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:52 PM

Estonia:

Scandal at sea.

Russia sent a Su-35 fighter jet to stop Estonia’s navy seizing a tanker, breaking sanctions as part of Russia’s shadow-fleet.

Estonia demanded the crew head to port, then they tried to board the vessel, before the attack plane arrived and they backed off.

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— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:22 PM

Given that the Russians put a Su-35 on station to target the Estonian Navy ship, discretion was the better part of valor. Remember, Russia is looking for an excuse to actually make their NATO on orders of the US started this war against Russia rhetoric real. The lesson to be learned here is that going forward from today, NATO/NATO member states need to have their own aviation assets on station flying CAP in overwatch of their ships when doing interdiction.

France:

France will transfer to Ukraine all wheeled CAESAR self-propelled howitzers produced in 2025, President Macron announced.

Around 12 units are manufactured each month, so the total could reach up to 144 — several times more than have been delivered throughout all the years of the full-scale war.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:01 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Russia still seeks to erase Ukraine.

Ukraine still fights to exist.

Whatever spectacle unfolds tomorrow in Istanbul, it will amount to nothing—there is no middle ground. It’s a performance for Trump to observe, assessing Ukraine’s readiness for peace, while Russia continues to kill us.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:47 PM

A reminder that despite efforts by both the Kremlin and the White House to undermine his position, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is extremely popular in Ukraine. A large majority are also against holding elections (which would be illegal in wartime anyway).

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 6:47 AM

Ukrainian Magura V7 naval drone with two AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:43 PM

/2. More photos of Magura V7

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 3:33 PM

The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has officially shown the operation of the S-200 surface-to-air missile system for the first time.

The video shows the launch of a 5V28 missile from a standard Soviet 5P72V launcher, which was previously believed to be decommissioned.
t.me/c/1606301574…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 2:26 PM

Sumy:

Russian forces struck an industrial facility in Sumy with a missile. Tragically, one person was killed, and seven others were injured; three of them are in critical condition, reported the Regional Military Administration.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:06 AM

The number injured in Sumy climbs to 9

bsky.app/profile/twmc…

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— Tim White (@twmcltd.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 10:07 AM

Kharkiv:

Russian drones are approaching Kharkiv right now ‼️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 1:18 PM

In Kharkiv, the names of the occupying forces who attacked the residents of Czechoslovakia during the ‘Prague Spring’ are being removed from a memorial plaque.

Finally!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:11 AM

Toretsk:

Toretsk, before and after Russia liberated it from life itself.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 12:55 PM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russia struck Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region with a glide bomb today, killing a 63 years-old man in his home.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 9:02 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Air strikes on Russian bridges in the Kursk region. t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:56 AM

On the Kursk–Sumy direction, Russians got hit hard. Ukraine’s Defense Forces delivered a precise strike on an enemy artillery position.

As a result, the ammo was destroyed, three occupiers were wounded and Russian D-20 howitzer also left the chat for a while.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 2:36 PM

Khakhovka, Kherson Oblast:

Aftermath of a drone strike on Russian Tor air defence system. Judging by the debris, it was a heavy Ukrainian quadcopter that was also knocked down by the blast wave from the detonating Tor. Kakhovka, Kherson region. 11.05.2025 t.me/dosye_shpion…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 14, 2025 at 8:33 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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😻🇺🇦 Odesa cat decided that he is now a tourist and climbed into a cable car cabin! Paws on the window, whiskers in the works, his purring: “Well, seagulls, envious, eh?” This stripy little rascal has clearly decided that he is the captain of this sky voyage!

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) May 13, 2025 at 10:39 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,175: Putin Isn’t Going to Turkey Because He’s a Big (Little) ChickenPost + Comments (9)

Wednesday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  May 14, 20258:05 pm| 106 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "Stories from the Road", Open Threads

Another day full of suck and disbelief on the political front for me, at least. This sums everything up nicely:

Cops rough-housing the man who sells ice cream is America in its purest state.

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— scott dagostino (@scottdagostino.ca) May 14, 2025 at 5:23 PM

Pretty much.

Something else that caught my eye but didn’t seem to be that big of a story but should is that real world twat acting as Secretary of Transportation rerouted his wife’s flight away from Newark while telling everyone else things are fine:

Sean Duffy, the Trump administration’s transportation secretary, has revealed that he switched flights for his wife this week to help her avoid flying out of beleaguered Newark Liberty, one of the busiest airports in the New York area.

Duffy’s disclosure on Monday followed his repeated assurances to the American public that it is safe to fly from Newark, despite a spate of dramatic outages affecting the airport’s radar systems that is causing ongoing disruption and delays. On Sunday, the transportation secretary went on NBC News’s Meet the Press and insisted Newark was safe.

“It is,” he protested. “I fly out of Newark all the time, my family flies out of Newark.”

Hours later, speaking to the conservative radio host David Webb on SiriusXM, he said: “My wife was flying out of Newark tomorrow, I switched her flight to LaGuardia”.

These people are just terrible.

***

I spent a decent amount of time on the mower today, and the artist du jour was Tyler the Creator. Can’t get over how much I liked Igor and the song What’s Good from that album is my new earworm and it is a banger. I really do not know how to describe him- he’s unlike anything I have heard. Hiphop, rap, neo soul, techno, but thematic like album oriented rock. It’s great stuff.

Still surfing and watching the Pitt at the same time. It’s a safe, non challenging, schlocky show that doesn’t require a whole lot of thought or attention so if you zone off thinking about summer tomatoes or peaches or while petting your cat or surfing the internet, it’s not gonna make you rewind because who fucking cares, really.

Wednesday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (106)

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