(Image by NEIVANMADE) Before we begin, two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is hanging in there. The good news is that after two chemo treatments her lymph nodes have shrunk back to normal size. The bad news is that she’s had a very strong reaction to the two chemo treatments. As a result, she had …
War for Ukraine Day 797: Another Monday, Another Bombardment of KharkivPost + Comments (47)
All Intelligence Agencies of Our Partners are Informed of the Current Threats and Prospects – Address by the President
29 April 2024 – 21:46
Dear Ukrainians!
I have just received reports on the situation in Odesa following a Russian missile strike and in Kharkiv following a Russian guided aerial bomb strike. Unfortunately, there are fatalities in Odesa. My condolences to the families and friends. Many people have been wounded – all of them are being provided with medical aid. Local services and rescuers of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine responded immediately. It is important that all services, all our people, on whose work the lives of Ukrainians depend, are as efficient and fast as possible. Prompt assistance and protection of life that is timely and courageous enough are what help us all in Ukraine to endure.
Today, we talked a lot about speed in our negotiations with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Timely delivery of weapons to our warriors, timely and sufficient decisions on air defense for Ukraine are what we need right now to protect lives. Especially since our partners really have all the necessary systems, really have all the necessary quality of weapons, so that our warriors can operate much more effectively. I thank Jens for his understanding and willingness to help. The daily Russian missile attacks, as well as the daily attempts of the occupier to destroy more of our positions, can all be stopped. The Russian offensive plans can be thwarted. For this, Ukrainian strength must be backed up by sufficient support from partners: “Patriots” that are needed here, the 155 mm caliber that must sound as strong as possible at the front, the weapons with sufficient range that can and must destroy Russian logistics. All intelligence agencies of our partners are informed of the current threats and prospects. We must do everything to achieve our goals – the common goals of everyone in the world who despises terrorists.
Today, I also held a meeting of the Staff. The Commander-in-Chief delivered a detailed report. The frontline. Our positions. The hottest areas. The supplies we expect. There was also a report by the Chief of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, and representatives of the Coordination Headquarters on negotiations for the release of POWs. It is extremely important for our state to maintain clear communication with the families of the POWs. There must be clarity, to the extent possible, regarding each name, each person, regarding the measures being taken to bring our people home.
I thank everyone who truly cares about our people and our entire country, I thank everyone who helps Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights against Russian evil.
Glory to Ukraine!
The reason:
A daughter got to see her Warrior Dad. But only for a moment.
📹: yrec228/tiktok pic.twitter.com/3jvTAm7xBz
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania:
The foreign ministers of all thre Baltic states are now linking the Russian GPS jamming with risks of an air disaster.
During weekend, the jamming forced two Finnish flights to turn around and the Tartu – Helsinki line is now under threat of closing. https://t.co/M105wTByu6— Markus Jonsson (@auonsson) April 29, 2024
From The Financial Times via the Internet Archive:
Baltic ministers have warned that GPS jamming blamed on Russia risks causing an air disaster after the interference with navigation signals forced two Finnish flights to turn around mid-journey.
The foreign ministers of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania all warned separately at the weekend of the dangers of GPS jamming across the Baltic Sea region, which has increased in recent weeks.
On Thursday and Friday, two Finnair flights from Helsinki to the Estonian city of Tartu were forced by the GPS jamming to turn around and return to Finland as they were unable to navigate safely to their planned destination.
“If someone turns off your headlights while you’re driving at night, it gets dangerous. Things in the Baltic region near Russian borders are now getting too dangerous to ignore,” Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s foreign minister, told the Financial Times.
Margus Tsahkna, Estonia’s foreign minister, added: “We consider what is happening with GPS as part of Russia’s hostile activities, and we will definitely discuss it with our allies.
“Such actions are a hybrid attack and are a threat to our people and security, and we will not tolerate them.”
Tens of thousands of civilian flights have been affected by the GPS jamming in recent months, according to experts. The jamming, which affects all GPS users in the area when it is in operation, has also impeded signals used by boats in the Baltic Sea, leading to warnings from the Swedish navy about the safety of shipping.
GPS jamming is easy to conduct with relatively cheap equipment, according to experts.
No country has acknowledged being behind the interference with signals in the Baltics, but officials in the region said there was little doubt that Russia was behind the jamming both from its mainland and its exclave of Kaliningrad, nestled between Poland and Lithuania on the Baltic Sea.
A senior official said one theory was that Russia was trying to protect Kaliningrad from potential attacks by Ukrainian drones.
The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment.
Australia:
Australia continues to stand with Ukraine and has announced a new military aid package worth $100 million.
The package includes $50 million for short-range air defense systems, $30 million for uncrewed aerial systems, and $15 million for other high-priority equipment, such as… pic.twitter.com/eu2wnKAGo1
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 29, 2024
Australia continues to stand with Ukraine and has announced a new military aid package worth $100 million.
The package includes $50 million for short-range air defense systems, $30 million for uncrewed aerial systems, and $15 million for other high-priority equipment, such as combat helmets, rigid-hull inflatable boats, boots, fire masks, and generators.
We are grateful to our Australian friends for their unwavering support. Together, we are stronger!
🇺🇦🤝🇦🇺
@DefenceAust
The Czech Republic via Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL):
Czech police confirmed on April 29 that agents of Russia’s military intelligence (GRU) were involved in two ammunition depot blasts that killed two workers near the eastern Czech village of Vrbetice in 2014. In 2021, Prague accused Moscow of being involved in the blasts and expelled several Russian diplomats. Moscow denied any involvement. The Czechs said two Russian men were involved in the explosion, identifying them as Russian citizens who have also been accused by Britain of participating in the 2018 poisoning of former Russian double agent Sergei Skripal and his daughter in England. To read the original story by RFE/RL’s Russian Service, click here.
Hungary:
Yes, unlike Ukraine, Orban has been actually combating a full-scale invasion of one of the world's largest military powers with the 3rd largest war budget for two years, with millions of war refugees, entire cities wiped out, and critical infrastructure purposefully destroyed.… https://t.co/sqyWCwStO0
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 29, 2024
Yes, unlike Ukraine, Orban has been actually combating a full-scale invasion of one of the world’s largest military powers with the 3rd largest war budget for two years, with millions of war refugees, entire cities wiped out, and critical infrastructure purposefully destroyed.
Makes sense!
Either NY City or south Florida depending on where Rudy is holed up these days.
They just can’t quit criming
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) April 29, 2024
Oy vey!
Marinka:
"Mariinka, a city the springtime did not come to"
A video by Babylon 13, a Ukrainian filmmaking group.
Mariinka used to be a quiet suburb of Donetsk, some 10,000 residents.
In 2014-2015, after the first Russian invasion, it ended up on the Ukrainian side of the frozen front… pic.twitter.com/pFlETTbQcY
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) April 29, 2024
“Mariinka, a city the springtime did not come to”
A video by Babylon 13, a Ukrainian filmmaking group.
Mariinka used to be a quiet suburb of Donetsk, some 10,000 residents.
In 2014-2015, after the first Russian invasion, it ended up on the Ukrainian side of the frozen front line.
It enjoyed a peaceful life for years and only sometimes heard rare distant gunshots of that pointless Russian-sponsored standoff that was only fading out without a Russian command for war.
Kinds used to go to schools, and local folks worked their jobs and elected their local administration.
And then Russia came to “liberate” Mariinka in 2022.
Now, what used to be Mariinka is under Russian occupation following nearly two years of fierce fighting.
This is the hellscape of the “Russian liberation of Ukraine.”
Population now: 0.
https://youtu.be/OBPxaNB_NUA
Kharkiv:
Two senior Ukrainian intel officials described Russia’s attacks along the frontline and missile strikes on Kharkiv as softening the battlefield before a major offensive. The officials expect Russia to launch a new large-scale assault in late May or June.https://t.co/nC3vapdpEq
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 29, 2024
From The Financial Times:
After Congress approved a long-delayed $61bn in US military aid to Ukraine this week, Russia gloated that advanced western weapons would not turn the tide on the battlefield.
More than at any point since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine two years ago, Russia’s president appears “very self-assured and happy” in recent months, said a person who knows him well. “Let’s see if the military aid changes that.”
While Ukraine was running out of western aid and struggled to rotate its exhausted troops, Russia took advantage of its superior firepower and manpower and made incremental advances across the front line.
Two senior Ukrainian intelligence officials described Russia’s current attacks along key areas of the frontline and missile and drones strikes on Kharkiv and similarly important cities as softening the battlefield before a bigger offensive operation.
The officials said they expected Russia to launch a new large-scale offensive in late May or June.
After its initial blitzkrieg failed, Russia has sought to grind down Ukraine by favouring quantity over quality on the battlefield.
Russia fires five shells for each returning salvo from Ukraine’s forces, while the ratio is even higher in some flashpoints along the line of contact, according to Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace who studies the Russian military.
“The aid won’t cancel out Russian advantages this year, but it will allow Ukrainian forces to defend their positions with counter-battery fires and can be used to slow or halt Russian advances,” Massicot said.
Boosted by a record Rbs10.8tn ($118.5bn) in spending on defence this year — six per cent of gross domestic product — Russia’s arms industry has built up production several times over, with factories working around the clock, according to officials.
Sergei Chemezov, head of Rostec, the state defence conglomerate, last November said Russia was making 2.5 times more artillery and multiple launch systems than before, while increasing production of some types of ammunition by more than 60 times.
Those sheer numbers, however, mask Moscow’s inability to turn that firepower into a significant breakthrough — something Russian experts say it could only do with more advanced weaponry.
More at the link.
The Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot has a new assessment of the potential Russian spring/summer offensive and the potential effects of the US military aid finally making it to Ukraine. From the Thread Reader App:
The U.S. supplemental has passed and aid is on the way to Ukrainian frontlines. But months of delay for ammo and manpower have come at a cost. Problems cannot easily be undone, especially in Donetsk. A brief thread on what Russian decisions say about their summer plans. 🧵First, Russia’s efforts suggest their priority remains advancing to the borders of Donetsk, where they add reserve units, the VKS operates intensely, and where improved recon-strike (40-100km behind Ukrainian lines + SS-26 SRBM) is hitting high value assets / 2The situation is now critical in Chasiv Yar and this thread from @Tatarigami_UA is very useful to describe why: /3In the last week, Russia now has a salient near Ocheretyne, currently about 5KM x 5KM wide. Russian doctrine says that an operational breakthrough against prepared defenses is possible after fires preparation of 15-30km and a suitable reserve force is ready.In the last ten days, Russian forces committed 3 critical brigade elements forward – the 74th, 35th, and 30th (from 41st CAA). These forces were used in final stages of the battle of Avdiivka and have been recovering for the last month. Map @InkvisiitThese experienced brigade elements are supported by various DPR and reserve units. Concentrating them in the salient is indicative of the priority of this effort. Also, if Ukrainian forces can target them, they could degrade some of the most skilled brigades there.The 74th just raised a flag at Berdychi, Gen Syrskyi said units withdrew from there in advance.Thoughts from @inkvisiit on defensive challenges that could await Russian forces next, although these defensive positions are in various stages of readiness and Ukrainian units are understrength. @bradyafr also does great work on this.Russian forces edge closer to Pokrovsk. If they achieve that objective and control the roads (or have fire control of them), the situation becomes very difficult for Ukrainian forces in Donetsk, leaving only a few strongholds near Kramatorsk – Sloviansk.While ammunition availability will begin to improve shortly, manpower is still an unresolved challenge to frontline units, especially against the weight of this Russian effort in Donetsk.What of the talk of a large Russian offensive this summer? Russian actions and posture suggests Donetsk is the priority. Russian discussions of a “sanitary zone” of indeterminate depth near Kharkiv are also concerning; as are strikes; but i can’t determine that its resourced.What about a renewed offensive from Russia this summer/fall? To answer, it will be important to survey border areas (and major training grounds, and repair facilities) to see what sort of reserve pipeline is underway now – or not.Russian mobilization probably deserves its own thread because its requirements are contingent on multiple moving parts. for now, i would say that there is not an imminent or critical need for mobilized manpower to hold Russian lines, as they faced in the summer of 2022.It’s also important to zoom out of the frontline a bit to put this recent Donetsk activity in perspective. The Donetsk region is not stable for Ukrainian forces but there are other areas where Russian advances are slow or holding.I recommend reading this thoughtful thread from @ralee85 for his reactions to the supplemental and the urgent manpower issues for the Ukrainian Armed Forces that can’t be pushed aside.In sum, delays in manpower and ammunition replenishment have come with a cost on the battlefield. In this moment, Russian commanders are trying to achieve progress before their opportunities are reduced by more ammunition the hands of Ukrainian units. / end
Ukrainian (free) Donetsk:
This is 97-year-old Lidiia Stepanivna. She walked 10 kilometers to get out of the occupied part of the village of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region.
Mrs Lidiia walked the whole day without food or water. She came under heavy fire at least twice. She shared that several times, she fell… https://t.co/fCNHPUnwXS pic.twitter.com/BGHXeGvW5h
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024
This is 97-year-old Lidiia Stepanivna. She walked 10 kilometers to get out of the occupied part of the village of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region.
Mrs Lidiia walked the whole day without food or water. She came under heavy fire at least twice. She shared that several times, she fell down, slept, then woke up and started walking again.
In the evening, our military found her. The “White Angel” police crew took Lidiia Stepanivna to a shelter for evacuees, where she received all the necessary assistance.
The Bakhmut front:
Russians use of ‘turtle’ tanks in attacks spread to the Bakhmut front. https://t.co/ZtIVa4jXR2 pic.twitter.com/aXSAcDFcxP
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024
As said, a Russian BMP that was captured today. Eastern front (presumably bakhmut area). https://t.co/EiP0WdkCvT pic.twitter.com/5iaEv2tJmp
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024
/3. Another interesting detail is that the BMP-1 is completely sealed on all sides and in the front with anti drone cages. This means that it cannot use its gun at all. pic.twitter.com/TQtRtXakD1
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 29, 2024
The Republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya, Russia:
Southern Russian republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya: on the night of 29 April, a group of individuals attacked a road police unit, killing at least two and wounding four policemen.
The attackers drove up to the post in the village of Mara-Ayagy in a VAZ-2109 vehicle, threw an… pic.twitter.com/QENvfGUqR4
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 29, 2024
Southern Russian republic of Karachaevo-Cherkessiya: on the night of 29 April, a group of individuals attacked a road police unit, killing at least two and wounding four policemen.
The attackers drove up to the post in the village of Mara-Ayagy in a VAZ-2109 vehicle, threw an IED at the officers and opened fire. A shootout began and a second explosive device went off on one of the criminals.
Five attackers were killed by return fire. They have been identified as a group that carried out another attack on police just a week ago, on 22 April.
An extremely worrying trend for Russia in the wake of the Crocus City Hall attack and rumours of neighbouring Chechnya’s [Ichkeria] Ramzan Kadyrov’s looming health issues, threatening to plunge the region into chaos.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
First some adjacent material.
This family evacuated from Bakhmut about a year and a half ago. They brought all their pets with them.
They now live and work all together in an animal shelter.
Russia has brought so much suffering to our people.
📹: Suspilne pic.twitter.com/DteTvHFiZN
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 29, 2024
Georgia, you are so courageous. Let no one say you are small or defenseless, or someone can dictate to you. You are a great country with a great history, where our common enemy has always sought to interfere by force. ბრძოლებით შეგეძლებათ – დაგეგმებთ #Georgia #NoToRussianLaw https://t.co/jUMhpE81Nu
— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 28, 2024
The Georgian at the end of Patron’s tweet translates to:
You will be able to fight – you will plan
Open thread!