Two of the most gargantuan, gaping assholes in Florida collided yesterday, and all I could think of when reading about it was the sad absence of a meteor. Gift link from the Post: Former president Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis met privately Sunday morning in Miami, according to people familiar with the matter, …
Open Threads
War for Ukraine Day 796: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have Answers
by Adam L Silverman| 54 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine
Air raid alerts for Kharkiv have just gone up over the past 1/2 hour (as I type this it is currently 6:35 PM EDT). Last night in comments, way2blue asked: Adam, I am out of cycle for your evening posts, but still wanted to ask a question I hope see… A few days back you …
War for Ukraine Day 796: (Some of) You Have Questions, I (May) Have AnswersPost + Comments (54)
In June the Path to a Just Peace Can Begin – Address by the President
28 April 2024 – 18:25
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
We are not losing a single day for Ukraine – I have just spoken with Hakeem Jeffries, the leader of the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. I thanked him and all the congressmen for their support of our country and personal leadership in advancing a new package of assistance to Ukraine. We are interacting with our partners at all levels to achieve the level of efficiency in assistance that is needed not only to hold our positions, but also to disrupt Russia’s war plans. We are still waiting for the supplies promised to Ukraine – we expect exactly the volume and content of supplies that can change the situation on the battlefield in the interests of Ukraine. And it is important that every agreement we have reached is implemented – everything that will yield practical results on the battlefield and boost the morale of everyone on the frontline. In a conversation with Mr. Jeffries, I emphasized the need for Patriot systems, they are needed as soon as possible.
Also, our teams, Ukraine and the United States, are currently working on a bilateral security agreement, and we are already working on a specific text. Our goal is to make this agreement the strongest of all. We are discussing the specific foundations of our security and cooperation. We are also working on fixing specific levels of support for this year and for the next ten years, including armed support, financial, political, and joint arms production. The agreement should be truly exemplary and reflect the strength of American leadership. I am grateful to both our team and the team of the American side for the progress in drafting the agreement.
Next week there will be quite a lot of international communication, both public and non-public. We remember what this year should bring us in the political sense, in particular the result with the European Union. Ukraine has fulfilled all the necessary conditions for the actual start of accession negotiations, and now it is up to the EU side to fulfill its obligations.
We continue preparations for the first inaugural Peace Summit in June, and our team, along with the teams of our key partners, is working to make the Summit truly global. We can say for sure that all continents will be represented – different parts of the world, different views on global development. But all of them share the same recognition that the UN Charter and basic international conventions are binding documents for every country in the world, including a country like Russia, where madness prevails. The world majority must force Russia into peace – and it can do this. It is in June that the path to a just peace can begin.
We are also preparing for the NATO Summit to be held this summer. A strong political signal is needed – the Alliance should not be afraid of its own strength or shy away from its own foundations – every country that shares common values and is willing to actually defend them deserves an invitation to join the Alliance.
And our unwavering gratitude to the warriors – to all the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine, to each and every one of them at the front, at combat posts, on combat missions. Kharkiv region, Donetsk direction, all the southern directions. I am grateful to every soldier and commander who is doing everything to destroy the occupiers – this is needed the most.
According to the results of the week, the warriors of the 57th and 58th separate motorized infantry brigades, as well as the warriors of the 35th separate marine brigade deserve special gratitude. I would also like to mention our border guards, both those who are fighting on the frontline alongside everyone else, and those who are protecting our border communities and destroying Russian subversive groups. Special gratitude goes to all the servicemen of the Dozor special forces unit of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. Also, to the warriors of the Revenge brigade – and I would like to thank Staff Sergeant Oleksandr Meteyko, Senior Sergeants Serhiy Nesterenko and Sviatoslav Ihnatiuk for their special results. The Steel Frontier brigade – Staff Sergeant Ivan Koval, Sergeant Vitaliy Mykytenko, and Senior Soldier Yevhen Kolesnik. Well done! Chernihiv and Volyn border guard detachments – Senior Soldiers Mykhailo Danyliuk and Mykhailo Myndiuk, Sergeants Yuriy Romashyn and Mykhailo Sereda, and Senior Sergeant Roman Novyk. Sumy border guard detachment – Soldier Andriy Krut and Staff Sergeant Yuriy Popkov particularly distinguished themselves… I also thank all the soldiers of our Kharkiv detachment, especially Senior Soldiers Denys Shevchenko and Volodymyr Shevtsov, and Major Andriy Kuchynskyi. I am proud of you all, warriors!
I am grateful to everyone who is with Ukraine, who is in Ukraine and for whom Ukraine is the only home on Earth.
Glory to Ukraine!
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky says the battlefield situation has "worsened," and Russia is "trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the frontline." It has "a significant advantage in forces and means" and is "actively…
— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 28, 2024
Here’s a machine translation of Colonel General Syrsky’s full statement from his Telegram channel:
The situation at the front worsened. Trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy concentrated the main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means. Actively attacks along the entire front line, in some directions – has tactical successes. There is a dynamic change in the situation, individual positions change “from hand to hand” several times during the day, which gives rise to an ambiguous understanding of the situation.
What is actually happening at the front?
Heavy fighting continued across the front line this week. The situation was changing dynamically – in some areas the enemy had tactical success, and in some areas it was possible to improve the tactical position of our troops.
In Luhansk region, the enemy is trying to take advantage of its advantage in air, missiles and the number of artillery ammunition. The main task for himself is to reach the administrative border of the Luhansk region.
The main areas where the enemy’s efforts are concentrated in the Kupyan direction are the villages of Stelmakhivka and Berestov. There, the enemy had partial success, but was stopped by the actions of our units. Also, continues the offensive on the village of Terny in the Lymansky direction, tries to push the Defense Forces of Ukraine beyond the Black Stallion River, without success.
In the Siversk direction, the enemy is advancing in the area of Bilogorivka and Rozdolivka, trying to break through and block Siversk in order to create conditions for the continuation of the offensive on Slovyansk. There are no successes, his progress in this direction is stopped.
In the Kramatorsk direction, Ivanovske and Chasiv Yar remain the hottest spots. Also, the enemy is trying to bring Klishchiivka under its control and go to the border along the “Siverskyi Donets-Donbas” channel.
The most difficult situation is in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, where fierce battles continue. The enemy deployed up to four brigades in these directions, is trying to develop an offensive west of Avdiyivka and Maryinka, making its way to Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo. Units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, preserving the lives and health of our defenders, moved to new frontiers west of Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka. In general, the enemy achieved certain tactical successes in these directions, but could not gain operational advantages. Ukrainian troops inflict maximum losses on the enemy, both in terms of personnel and military equipment. In order to strengthen the defense in these directions, to replace the units that have suffered losses, the brigades that have regained combat capability are being moved.
The situation is still tense in the South, in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. On the Novopavlivskyi direction, the enemy is trying to advance in the Staromayorsky area, on the Orihivskyi – in the Robotyny and Verbovoiy areas, on the Khersonskyi – they still hope to knock out our troops from Krynyk. There is no success in any of the directions. Moreover, in the direction of Kherson, our units managed to advance in the area of Veletenskyi and establish control over the island of Nestryga.
Also, the Defense Forces of Ukraine managed to improve their tactical position in the area of Synkivka (Kupian direction) and Serebryan Forestry (Lyman direction).
In the North of Ukraine, the enemy continues shelling border settlements in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, conducts sabotage and reconnaissance activities. There are no signs of direct enemy preparation for offensive actions in the North of Ukraine. At the same time, we are monitoring the increase in the number and regrouping of enemy troops in the Kharkiv direction. In the most threatening directions, our troops have been reinforced by artillery and tank units.
We continue the rotation of military units in order to organize personnel rest and restore the combat capability of our military units.
Training of personnel in training centers continues, the main emphasis is placed on quality and skill in handling weapons.
Work on the fortification equipment of defensive lines and positions continues.
We are also working with partners to obtain weapons, weapons and military equipment as soon as possible.
Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
t.me/osirskiy/670
Estonia:
Russian GPS jamming in and around Estonia having an increasing impact. For two days in a row planes are unable to land at the second biggest city in Estonia due to GPS jamming. Pretty disturbing. https://t.co/nkmSFTPHlh pic.twitter.com/j7txR5oUWn
— Erik Kannike (@erikkannike) April 27, 2024
It’s only a matter of time before Russian GPS jamming kills someone in the Baltic region.
NATO may not think it’s at war with Russia, but Russia is acting like it is at war with NATO. https://t.co/x3X48tHQIa
— David Priess (@DavidPriess) April 26, 2024
Russia has been at war with the US, the EU, NATO, and our other non-EU and non-NATO allies since at least 2011 if not 2009. A war Putin declared at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 with the claim that the US and NATO had and was attacking Russia. We have been living within World War III for well over a decade. It might be prudent for our leaders to wake up to that reality and act accordingly.
Kharkiv & Kupyansk:
Russian troops amass near Kharkiv, advancing towards Kupiansk. Despite Kharkiv being a longstanding military goal, even the most radical Russian strategists admit capturing the city seems improbable. Now, resorting to disinformation & 'grey zone' tactics to intimidate civilians pic.twitter.com/1zWvvji2mF
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 28, 2024
Cape Tarkhantut, Russian occupied Crimea:
Russian channels report a night attack on an air defense base in Crimea, Cape Tarkhantut, using democratic ATACMS missiles.
The same missiles were allegedly used to successfully destroy the S-400 system in Dzhankoy earlier. pic.twitter.com/wfyyVUz8yI
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) April 28, 2024
Russian Telegram channels report the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian air defense unit at Cape Tarkhankut overnight allegedly with ATACMS missiles.
In addition, a powerful explosion is reported in Dzhankoi and Dzhankoi district of occupied Crimea.
According to Suspilne,… pic.twitter.com/BNbT3Ual17
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 28, 2024
Russian Telegram channels report the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian air defense unit at Cape Tarkhankut overnight allegedly with ATACMS missiles.
In addition, a powerful explosion is reported in Dzhankoi and Dzhankoi district of occupied Crimea.
According to Suspilne, more than ten explosions sounded around 1 am in Razdolne district bordering Dzhankoi in northern Crimea.
There is no official information on the strike yet.
Despite the explosions, Russians want to rest in Crimea: the tourist flow has been off the scale since the morning of April 28. Local Telegram channels report about queues for inspections in Taman and Chonhar checkpoint (on video).
Crimea has become one of the few alternatives for restricted Russians.
Russians are used to celebrating Easter holidays (next week) in Crimea.
Well, Russians love fireworks and salutes.
On the border of Zaprizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts:
Airstrikes on Russian positions somewhere on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.https://t.co/dcuN3fv7Zz pic.twitter.com/839GSMhMUs
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 28, 2024
An update on the octogenarian who fled Russian occupied Donetsk on foot:
Ivan Vivsianyk, 88, who fled the Russian-occupied village of Ocheretyne on foot under shelling because he did not want to live with a Russian passport, settled in Dnipro region and plans to garden.
Mr. Ivan said that Russian occupiers threatened to shoot him, they took away his… https://t.co/fK9RgcQrWN pic.twitter.com/lNmJ7DNcFP
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 28, 2024
Ivan Vivsianyk, 88, who fled the Russian-occupied village of Ocheretyne on foot under shelling because he did not want to live with a Russian passport, settled in Dnipro region and plans to garden.
Mr. Ivan said that Russian occupiers threatened to shoot him, they took away his Ukrainian documents. He walked for more than six hours with one bag, and then hitched a ride to Pokrovsk. There the man asked for help.
Now, at the center for evacuees in Dnipro, Mr. Ivan is recovering. The head of the center says that despite his age, Ivan is independent and eager to lead an active life.
“He wants to garden. I think, he will find a a partner here. He enjoys success among our grandmothers and not only grandmothers, so I think we don’t need to worry. He is an independent person – he showed himself right away,” Olha Volkova, head of the temporary accommodation center said.
Ivan Vivsianyk is sure that he will also harvest tomatoes and grapes, at least in Dnipropetrovsk region.
📹: TSN
Odesa:
Odesa. A family stands on the ruins of their house, which was destroyed by a Russian drone on April 23.
Khrystyna and Ruslan have three children. Little Andriana, who is only 1 year old, nine-year-old Vadym, and twelve-year-old Vanya, who is in the hospital. The family was at… pic.twitter.com/NwbM3TIG6Q
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 28, 2024
Odesa. A family stands on the ruins of their house, which was destroyed by a Russian drone on April 23.
Khrystyna and Ruslan have three children. Little Andriana, who is only 1 year old, nine-year-old Vadym, and twelve-year-old Vanya, who is in the hospital. The family was at home at the time of the explosion. It’s a miracle that they survived, but the eldest son was injured.
📷: Libkos
Kushchyovskaya airfield, Russia:
First satellite image of the Russian Kushchyovskaya military airfield after the recent drone attack.
Along with airfield two Russian oil refineries were also targeted during the attack – https://t.co/AZhHRFUV3H https://t.co/NhBkOUi004— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 28, 2024
/3. Satellite imagery of whole airbase https://t.co/HM5DEUnhDz
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 28, 2024
For those wondering, here’s an update on what has happened to the Wagner Group since Prigozhin was killed.
Exclusive: Thousands of Wagner fighters are now under the command of Russia's military and intelligence services. Inside the fracturing of Prigozhin's empirehttps://t.co/rLC85ADu4J
— Erin Banco (@ErinBanco) April 28, 2024
From Politico:
Seven months after the fiery death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the audacious oligarch whose private army known as the Wagner Group led an insurrection against Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian state is establishing control of the private mercenaries and putting them to work pursuing the Kremlin’s agenda.
The thousands of the former Wagner forces have splintered into at least four groups, according to two U.S. officials granted anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.
By mixing the fighters with other mercenaries loyal to Putin, the Russian government hopes to prevent a repeat of the events of last year, when a unified Wagner turned on Putin and his defense ministry.
“Part of the objective of the restructuring is to make sure there is more control over the operations overall,” one of the U.S. officials said.
The new private armies are already being deployed across the world on special missions, including to Ukraine and Africa, where they are expected to play a similarly destabilizing role on the global stage as when under the command of Prigozhin, the officials said. The reconstituted paramilitary groups have already forced the Biden administration to withdraw troops from Niger and Chad — in major setbacks for counterterrorism — while challenging U.S. policies in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Libya and other African nations.
One of the four groups is aligned with Russia’s National Guard. It has already transferred to Ukraine and lost a significant number of fighters. Two other groups are operating under the control of the defense ministry and Moscow’s intelligence services. The fourth group — known as the Africa Corps and aligned with an existing group known as Redut — is still working to assume control of former Wagner forces in some African capitals, the officials said.
Little else is known about the breakdown of the new factions, including how many members come from Prigozhin’s Wagner versus other existing paramilitary organizations. It’s also unclear to what extent Prigozhin’s son, who initially took control of thousands of Wagner mercenaries after his father’s death, is still involved in leading a smaller group of fighters still loyal to his father’s memory. The younger Prigozhin is likely in charge of some forces in the Central African Republic and Mali, the officials said.
Prigozhin died last August when his plane exploded in midair. The crash was widely viewed as a state-sponsored assassination, ordered by Putin.
Prigozhin’s death left the fate of his empire in limbo. At that time, the Wagner Group was in the process of establishing close ties to the leaders of rogue African states, providing security to dictators while engaging in lucrative mining operations.
In the Central African Republic, for instance, Wagner had taken control of a gold mine. In the wake of Prigozhin’s death, his former subordinates have significantly expanded the mine, U.S. officials said, but have not yet found a way to efficiently market and ship the minerals. They would reap hundreds of millions of dollars in profit on the global market.
Prigozhin also oversaw a sweeping disinformation operation that organized protests in Africa, helped place falsified news stories in media outlets around the world and ran massive troll farms to destabilize elections in Western Europe, the United States and other democracies.
The disinformation arms are now likely under the control of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the U.S. officials said. And Prigozhin’s economic employees may have been placed under other intelligence offices, including the military’s intelligence directorate.
Moscow’s newly asserted command of these private mercenaries has vast implications for geopolitics. In Africa, especially, it could undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to fight terrorism, promote democracy and forge diplomatic ties to newly formed regimes.
“The timing element is key here. Russia can give these countries what the U.S. cannot and immediately,” one of the U.S. officials said, referring to Moscow’s ability to use private fighters to provide under-the-table weapons and ammunition to newly formed military governments in Africa. “And a lot of the leaders of those countries are sick of the U.S. lecturing them about democracy.”
Moscow’s direct control of paramilitary groups could also convince some African countries that had previously shied away from the Wagner Group — which was under global sanctions as a criminal organization — to reconsider their resistance, said the officials.
Moscow’s use of the paramilitary fighters to spread its influence in Africa is already visible in Niger, one of the most important outposts in the war against terrorism.
Nigerien military leaders took control from the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, last July. The coup prompted Washington to suspend its economic and military aid to the country while the Biden administration pushed the military leaders to transition back to a civilian-led democracy.
Earlier this month, however, hundreds of Russian mercenaries arrived in the capital city of Niamey, claiming they were there to help train Niger’s military and to enter into a formal partnership with the ruling junta.
Their arrival came just days before the Biden administration announced that the U.S. would withdraw its 1,000 troops from the country after nearly 10 years, creating the appearance of Russian forces supplanting those of the U.S. in a country where terrorist groups have organized and plotted global attacks.
Meanwhile, in Chad, another country with a significant presence of former Wagner fighters, the Biden administration announced this week that it was withdrawing about 75 special operations forces who had been performing counterterrorism roles, at the request of the local government.
The move was widely seen as another instance of Russia supplanting U.S. influence.
Former Wagner fighters also remain active in Mali, Libya and Sudan, where they have contracts to provide security to unstable regimes. The U.S. has tried to counter Wagner’s presence in those nations and the Central African Republic, urging officials to distance themselves from Russia.
In another country, Burkina Faso, as in Niger and Chad, former Wagner forces are now under firm control of the Africa Corps.
But the two U.S. officials caution that there are risks to Russia’s strategy — especially pertaining to ongoing questions about the loyalty of former Wagner fighters and their willingness to take orders from the country’s oft-maligned defense ministry.
Even before his insurrection, Prigozhin would often publicly condemn the ministry of defense, blaming its leaders for setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine. And his final break with Putin occurred when he attempted to force the ouster of Sergei Shoigu, minister of defense, and Valery Gerasimov, the military’s chief of staff.
Prigozhin blamed the duo for the poor performance of Russian troops. He also claimed that they had exaggerated the largely illusory threat posed by Ukraine to push Putin into an unwise war.
Many of Wagner’s fighters have remained loyal to Prigozhin’s memory and similarly disliked the defense minister. Now, some of them are being led by that very official — Shoigu — in a highly selective group known as Patriot. It is supervised and financed by the ministry of defense, officials say.
“It’s unclear if Moscow will be able to pull off what Wagner has done for years,” a third U.S. official said. “These fighters are being put into an existing, bureaucratic system that might slow things down and make them less dangerous.”
More at the link.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
I would like you to get to know about Ukrainian poetess Lina Kostenko. Here’s the translation of my favorite poem:
Words terrify when they remain not spoken,
When suddenly, they tuck themselves away,
When you don’t know how silence can be broken,
For someone else has said all… pic.twitter.com/1f9rZ0AhFS— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 28, 2024
I would like you to get to know about Ukrainian poetess Lina Kostenko. Here’s the translation of my favorite poem:
Words terrify when they remain not spoken,
When suddenly, they tuck themselves away,
When you don’t know how silence can be broken,
For someone else has said all you might say.These words were once pronounced in tears or pain,
They were the dawn yet also the cessation,
Billions of men and words, like drops of rain,
For the first time now, they are your creation.Both beauty and ill will have had their fame,
There have been weeds and roads beneath our sole,
But poetry will never be the same,
It will forever touch the human soul.(Translation Ivan Doan)
Open thread!
‘But Seriously’ Open Thread: TFG’s Total Unfitness for Office
This post is in: Excellent Links, Foreign Affairs, Trump Crime Cartel
Several witnesses told Jack Smith's team that they routinely saw classified documents in Trump's White House residence, and that Trump would sometimes store as many as 30 boxes in his bedroom, which one valet said Trump treated "like a junk drawer." https://t.co/f0TNq2SVV5 — Citizens for Ethics (@CREWcrew) April 27, 2024 Nothing in this article is …
‘But Seriously’ Open Thread: TFG’s Total Unfitness for OfficePost + Comments (75)
The book also noted that Trump was “unique” among presidents in that, before taking over the White House, “he had no experience handling classified information or working with military, diplomatic, or intelligence programs and operations.”…
As he has done in public, Trump often privately disagreed with conclusions reached by the U.S. intelligence community, especially related to Russia and Ukraine, choosing instead to rely on unverified claims from other people, sources said that Smith’s investigators were told.
And sources said former aides confirmed to Smith’s investigators previous media reports that Trump almost never read the President’s Daily Brief, a report summarizing classified intelligence and analysis on the day’s most pressing issues.
Trump preferred to receive such summaries verbally, according to sources…
As some former officials described it to Smith’s investigators, discussing the latest intelligence with Trump could be an unpredictable task, sources said.
At times he would become so upset over what senior national security or intelligence officials were telling him that it would derail entire meetings, according to sources familiar with what witnesses told investigators.
In one series of meetings, ahead of an international summit in Europe, Trump met with then-CIA director Gina Haspel, then-Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and others to help plan for the summit. But when Trump was told positive things about one of the people he would likely meet at the summit, Trump “lost it,” insisting that he didn’t care, then he “lost it” again when he was being updated on a tax-related negotiation involving Mnuchin, sources said.
The sources said Trump then pitted one of his top aides against Mnuchin in front of everyone else, escalating the tension so much that it reminded one of those present of the movie “The Hunger Games,” with its dystopian death match broadcast live on national TV…
Sources said that, as one former official described it to Smith’s team, Trump’s posting of the image from Iran’s failed rocket launch revealed how the then-president “just didn’t care” about protecting classified information.
In 2021, Yahoo! News described how, during his briefing with intelligence officials, Trump thought the image “was very neat, and asked if he could keep it,” which made some of the intelligence officials nervous, according to an administration official. But that news report didn’t offer the same detailed account provided to Smith by witnesses last year.
Sources told ABC News that while speaking with Smith’s team, former aides and officials said Trump was specifically warned at the time that while he had the authority to declassify the image of Iran’s botched launch, there were also potential risks associated with doing that.
Trump initially agreed to wait while intelligence officials were then consulted, sources said, but the intelligence officials apparently took too long; about an hour later, Trump posted the image online.
“I was so appalled,” one former national security official told Smith’s team, according to the sources.
The former official noted that Trump may have believed it wasn’t a big deal — but only an expert would know if releasing such classified information could reveal “how we got it” it and whether it could “compromise our ability to get [it] in the future,” the former official explained to Smith’s team, according to the sources.
Sunday Morning Open Thread: WHCD (Nerd Prom) Last Night
This post is in: Media, Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat
🚨BREAKING: President Biden and Dr. Jill Biden just rolled into this year's White House Correspondents Dinner. FUN FACT: trumplethinskin was too much of a thin-skinned chicken shit to attend these. pic.twitter.com/m23BQnK9Xv — BrooklynDad_Defiant!☮️ (@mmpadellan) April 28, 2024 The President and First Lady arrive at the White House Correspondents' Dinner.pic.twitter.com/C7XTRE9jj8 — Molly Ploofkins™ (@Mollyploofkins) April 28, …
Sunday Morning Open Thread: WHCD (Nerd Prom) Last NightPost + Comments (278)
Worth listening to this whole clip, if only for the Staten Island jokes:
Colin Jost: "My grandpa voted for decency and decency is why we're all here tonight. Decency is how we're able to be here tonight. Decency is how we're able to make jokes about each other and one of us doesn't go to prison after…"#WHCA #WHCD #nerdprom pic.twitter.com/ti5bTkHQP7
— CSPAN (@cspan) April 28, 2024
Shorter version:
Wow. Very moving words from Colin Jost at the White House Correspondents Dinner tonight “My grandfather voted for you in the last election he ever voted in. The reason he voted for you is because you’re a decent man. I thank you for your decency.” Amazing. pic.twitter.com/ivcdsMyg04
— Harry Sisson (@harryjsisson) April 28, 2024
Turnabout…
President Biden jokes about Colin Jost.#WHCA #WHCD #nerdprom pic.twitter.com/ysKaU5eown
— CSPAN (@cspan) April 28, 2024
Early review from the entertainment professionals at Variety:
… “Saturday Night Live” comedian Colin Jost delivered a mixed bag of Trump zingers, media jokes and Biden age wisecracks in front of a demanding crowd Saturday at the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner, but it took him until the last of his remarks to fully charm the assemblage of journalists and politicos who came to hear him roast the President and the Washington press corps.
Jost finished his remarks by telling President Joe Biden about his 95 year old grandfather, a longtime fireman in Staten Island, N.Y, who voted Democrat in the 2020 presidential election even though that borough of New York City is known to favor Republicans…
The anecdote wrapped a meandering collection of quips about perceptions of Biden’s age, former President Donald Trump’s ongoing legal woes and a few gags about The New York Times and Fox News Channel.
“The Republican candidate for president owes half a billion in fines for bank fraud and is currently spending his days farting himself awake during a porn star hush money trial and the race is tied?” asked Jost. “The race is tied. Nothing makes sense anymore.” He added: “The candidate who is a famous New York City playboy took abortion rights away, and the guy who is giving you abortion rights back is an 80-year-old Catholic. How does that make sense?”…
For his part, President Biden urged journalists to keep in mind their role in preserving a functioning democracy, suggesting reporters steer away from horse-race campaign stories and “gotcha” moments in favor of the likely effects the next election will have on American life and policy. He also vowed to continue to work to free journalists like Evan Gershkovich and Austin Tice who have been imprisoned unjustly abroad.
President Biden also spent much time throwing a few stones at his Oval Office rival. He called Trump “Sleepy Don,” a reference to reports that Trump has been falling asleep during his current trial in New York, and turned ongoing questions about his own physical and mental condition toward Trump. “Of course, the 2024 election is in full swing. And yes, age is an issue,” Biden said. “I’m a grown man running against a six-year-old.”
Biden brings up January 6 and Trump's vow to become a dictator and implores journalists at the WHCA to "take this seriously … I'm asking you to rise up to the seriousness of the moment. Move past the horse race numbers and the gotcha moments." pic.twitter.com/w0uVtAoC4t
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) April 28, 2024
Lest we (as if we could!) forget:
I want to take a moment to give master roaster & truth teller Michelle Wolf a shout-out. In 2018 She used her night at the White House correspondents' dinner to speak truth & shame some powerful people & they deserved it. She said what we wanted to, but didn't have the reach. pic.twitter.com/w72ttoVZsT
— Susan🇺🇲♀️🇺🇦 (@ifudontlike2bad) April 27, 2024
White House Correspondents Dinner: Sleepy Don Isn’t Going to Like This
by WaterGirl| 60 Comments
This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads, Politics
Don’t hold back, Joe. Tell us what you really think! President Biden: Please, not so loud, Donald is listening. Sleepy Don. I kind of like that pic.twitter.com/CPBChcINGf — Biden-Harris HQ (@BidenHQ) April 28, 2024 . President Biden: Age is the only thing Trump and I have in common. My Vice President actually endorses me pic.twitter.com/siSZL7msbu …
White House Correspondents Dinner: Sleepy Don Isn’t Going to Like ThisPost + Comments (60)
War for Ukraine Day 795: Russia Launched 34 Missiles Against Ukraine Last Night/This Morning
by Adam L Silverman| 16 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(Image by NEIVANMADE) Russia launched 34 missiles at Ukraine overnight. Russia targeted energy facilities in Dnipro, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv regions, damaging four thermal power plants. Reports indicate serious damage. Overnight, Ukrainian defense downed 21 out of 34 missiles launched by Russia. pic.twitter.com/Ro6ORFdXex — Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 27, 2024 Amongst other targets, they hit the …
Ukraine Needs at Least 7 Patriot Systems – Address by the President
27 April 2024 – 19:53
Dear Ukrainians!
We endured another massive missile attack today – 34 Russian missiles of various types. The main target is the energy sector, various facilities of the industry: both the electricity grid and the gas transit facilities, the very gas facilities that, in particular, ensure the security of deliveries to the European Union.
We managed to shoot down some of the missiles today, and I am grateful to each of our warriors who were really accurate and reacted in time. The trajectories of the missiles and the nature of the attack were calculated by the Russian terrorists in order to complicate the work of our air defense system as much as possible. Each missile downed today is a significant result.
Of course, I am grateful to all the partners who have already helped us with air defense: now every system for protecting the sky, every anti-missile is literally a lifesaver. And it is important that all new agreements with partners that are already established to strengthen our air defense, every initiative of friends of Ukraine to help, in particular, with the search and supply of Patriots, is implemented as soon as possible. Ukraine needs seven systems – this is the bare minimum. Our partners have these Patriots.
Russian terrorists are aware that our partners, unfortunately, do not have the same determination to protect Europe from terror that they have demonstrated in the Middle East. However, it is still possible to provide the necessary quantity and quality of air defense systems. No time should be wasted – the necessary signal of determination must be sent.
I would also like to thank all the countries and leaders who are working hard to restrict Russia’s schemes for circumventing sanctions. I thank all the politicians and public figures, journalists who report on how Russia is importing components for missiles and other weapons violating the world’s sanctions. Every piece in the media about sanctions circumvention schemes, every public call for tougher sanctions, all the political work for this purpose that leads to results, limits not only Putin’s terror, but also terror in general. And this is the global meaning of our cooperation – of all partners.
Right now, power engineers and repair crews are working in many regions of our country – Lviv region, Ivano-Frankivsk region, Kharkiv and the region, Dnipropetrovsk region. All the relevant services are involved to restore the generation and distribution systems that were destroyed by the Russian strikes. Everyone will definitely do their best. And I thank all those who are working now and have been working all day.
It is crucial that such strikes like today’s do not become routine for the world. I am grateful to all the leaders who respond to them, who condemn Russian terror, who contact partners having air defense systems that could operate in Ukraine and the appropriate missiles. For the terrorists to lose, the solidarity of leaders in the defense against terror must work 24/7, just like the people who are eliminating the consequences of the strikes, and like our soldiers who are doing everything they can to make the most of the forces available in Ukraine every day and every night.
And one more thing. I want to thank Australia for announcing a new support package for our country and people. It is a military support that will strengthen our air defense, also drones and military equipment. Thank you! Today, the Prime Minister of Ukraine held talks with the Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, Minister for Defence. They took place here, in our country. I am waiting for the Prime Minister’s report.
We are also preparing for a new communication with our other partners: tomorrow and the next week will be quite active. Every day our country should gain strength. Every day we have to reinforce certain Ukrainian positions. We need to make Moscow realize that the war will give them nothing. And we can achieve this only by strength. All Ukrainians. All partners. And all being equally determined.
I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who is in combat, at combat posts, on combat missions! I thank everyone who trains our soldiers, and who convinces the world to be as decisive as possible so that this war comes to a just end.
Glory to Ukraine!
Estonia:
It’s only a matter of time before Russian GPS jamming kills someone in the Baltic region.
NATO may not think it’s at war with Russia, but Russia is acting like it is at war with NATO. https://t.co/x3X48tHQIa
— David Priess (@DavidPriess) April 26, 2024
The Ukrainian Marine who tweets as Kriegsforscher has posted an assessment of how he thinks things will go for the rest of 2024. From the Thread Reader App: (I am copying and pasting this verbatim, the second half of the post was in Ukrainian and I have machine translated it. And am copying and pasting that part verbatim as well. So this is your warning for foul/offensive language.)
The second part of this year will be the hardest since May 2022 I assume.Russians are able to push at different directions (Donetsk oblast is a strategic goal for this year). And they do it.
I am sure that we will see new directions such as Northern Kharkiv👇
RUAF right now have enough forces to move them from, for example, Kreminna to Avdiivka without loosing the advancing potentional.New CAA, new AC, new divisions. They are creating more and more forces. They will reach success this year.
The situation is worse than it used to be during the battle for Avdiivka. Much worse. They concentrate a lot of forces in one place to be able to breakthrough. We just don’t have enough brigades to manoeuvre and react.There is a hight possibility that RUAF will start a new offensive from Belgorod oblast. No, the goal is not to capture Kharkiv.The point is to make us to decide what and where we must sacrifice. They may use ~40K personal for this advance. And that’s a lot.
So I ask you to help the armed forces of Ukraine.I am very thankful that the US support was approved cause we would be fucked. Wait extra 6-7 months till new election would be close to death for us. Will be easier.
Help the Armed forces of Ukraine.
And now let’s guess, after the president delayed so much with the mobilization, will the new recruits really be able to study for three months in the NC?Weapons and equipment are given, but there is no one to hold those weapons in their hands. Clinic.
You can talk for a long time about how bad the Americans are, but in 7-10 days the enemy will take Krasnohorivka. Where is the concrete, where are the factories. Which could be held. A city, not a village of 1,500 called Novomykhailivka.But the fault here is not in the absence of BC for artillery, etc.
And the fact that for half a year the mobilization was not carried out in the normal way, according to the new “law” (which, by the way, did not have to be developed, but only to amend the existing one).But there is one constant variable – the Armed Forces (no, no more positive pathetic text).Because what happened in Ocheretyn (in fact, the issue here is not only up to 115) is not a matter of Biden or the (political) leadership of Ukraine. This is a separate branch of pussies.
Here’s Rob Lee’s take on the supplemental aid bill that just passed. From the Thread Reader App:
Some thoughts about the supplemental bill. This is good news, but it will primarily help Ukraine defend in 2024 and into 2025. Russia will still likely make further gains this year, and it doesn’t fix all of Ukraine’s issues. It should be seen as one part of a long-term strategy.Ukraine has had three main problems since Russia seized the initiative in October: ammunition, manpower, and fortifications. Ukraine is making progress building fortifications and multiple defensive lines, but defenses on many of the key parts of the front are still underdeveloped, contributing to Russian advances. 2/The bill and first PDA aid package announced this week will provide a quick boost to Ukraine’s defenses. But it is important to keep in mind that the limitations aren’t just appropriated funds but also production capacity and size of stockpiles. Greater artillery ammunition deliveries will help reduce Russia’s 5-6:1 artillery advantage, but it will not give Ukraine parity. 3/The PDA package will also provide other critical ammunition like anti-tank mines and Javelin/TOW ATGMs. Recent Russian advances have demonstrated that increased numbers of FPVs cannot replace artillery, mines, and ATGMs. Russia’s assault on Vuhledar in 2023 and Ukraine’s offensive last summer demonstrated how effective mines can be for defending forces. 4/Further deliveries of armored vehicles will also be important. Many Ukrainian brigades don’t have sufficient armored vehicles, and combat losses often aren’t replaced. This leads to higher casualties. Bradleys are very popular, armored humvees will help, and further M113 would be very useful for CASEVAC. 5/Air defense is another critical Ukrainian need. Russia has resumed its missile campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and UMPK glide bombs, which played a key role in Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka, are a serious problem. More recently, Russian Su-25 attack aircraft have been operating closer to the front than normal, which indicates a lack of SHORAD and MANPADS. 6/The USAI package announced today includes Patriot and NASAMS missiles and the PDA included Stinger MANPADS and RIM-7/AIM-9M missiles reportedly for FrankeSAM systems. Stingers could help push Su-25 further from the front line, and Patriots are critical both for defending cities and infrastructure from Russian ballistic missiles and also to counter Russian Su-34 bombers that drop UMPK glide bombs. 7/The question is whether production of these missiles is sufficient to meet Ukraine’s continued air defense needs over time, especially with increased Russian production of Shahed UAS and missiles. F-16 fighters and their airbases will be another priority target for Russian missiles that will require air defense coverage. It also depends how successful the various FrankenSAM programs prove to be. 8/Manpower has become the most pressing issue though, which was exacerbated by reduced deliveries of ammunition and equipment over the winter. Ukraine’s summer offensive primarily culminated when it ran out of infantry, and Ukraine has struggled to replace combat losses since then. 9/This means that Ukrainian brigades are understrength, and Ukraine lacks sufficient reserves to respond to Russian advances, so units are pulled from one part of the front to attempt to stop advances elsewhere. Ukrainian infantry need to be rotated more often or there will be a growing risk of exhaustion. 10/Ukraine has passed a new mobilization bill that provides incentives for volunteers and increases the pool of men available to be drafted. Hopefully, this will improve the manpower situation, but it will take time to mobilize and train soldiers/units. 11/More concerning is that the manpower issue has been known for some time, but has not been fixed. The longer it takes to improve the manpower situation, the less likely it becomes that Ukraine can conduct a offensive in 2025. The new NATO-trained/equipped brigades last summer did not have enough time to train together, and Russian defenses will still be strong. New soldiers/units need to be mobilized to replace current losses and trained for 2025. 12/At the same time, one of the most important factors in the war last year was that Russia was able to significantly improve its manpower situation, recruiting more than 300,000 volunteers. 13/It isn’t just involuntary mobilized soldiers and prisoners, they are mostly getting volunteers who are willing to go into costly assaults. The quality, of course, varies, but the quantitative advantage is a serious problem. 14/Without this manpower advantage, Russia’s artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield. The relative manpower situation is likely the most important factor that will determine the war’s trajectory, particularly if Russia can sustain recruiting 20-30k a month. 15/The immediate problem is that Russia continues to advance on the battlefield, and has reached important locations while Ukraine faced ammunition shortages. Russia is bringing up reserves to Chasiv Yar, and will likely soon begin an assault on the city. 16/Russian forces are also expanding their foothold in Ocheretyne, which threatens Ukrainian positions nearby, and they have advanced into Krasnohrivka and have made recent gains on the Marinka-Novomykhailivka front. 16/
deepstatemap.live/en#12/48.1163/…
Even with increased ammunition deliveries/expenditure, Ukraine might not be able to hold Chasiv Yar and other of these towns/cities, and Russia faces more favorable terrain once they get past Chasiv Yar, which could lead to an increase in the rate of advance. If Chasiv Yar falls, it will also put Ukrainian positions south of the city at risk. This is true for further Russian advances elsewhere. The delays in aid/mobilization have been costly. 18/If Ukraine can stabilize the front and fix the manpower situation in 2024 when Russia has a number of advantages, 2025 could be more favorable because Western production capacity will increase and Russian equipment losses could become a greater issue. If the manpower situation does not improve, then the second half of 2024 will likely be more difficult for Ukraine than the first half. 19/This bill will be vital, but it needs to be part of a broader long-term strategy for Ukraine. Western countries need to consider how to help Ukraine compensate for Russia’s current advantages, including increased deliveries of long-range missiles. 20/
And here is Tatarigami’s and his team’s assessment of what is going on with the Russian offensives at Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, Ocheretyne. From the Thread Reader App:
Why have Russian forces advanced in multiple directions and what are the implications? What are the future prospects? Today’s analysis by Frontelligence Insight centers on Chasiv Yar, Kurakhkove, and OcheretyneBefore proceeding, please like and share to aid visibility. 🧵Thread
2/ Ukrainian forces retreated from Ocheretyne and Solovyove. While the 115th brigade was blamed, the core issue is that many brigades are not in a condition to hold the enemy with disproportional advantage in personnel, artillery, vehicles, and air support along the frontline3/ Our team has received reports of poor communication, coordination, and leadership. These problems are rooted in deeper systemic issues, like personnel shortages and challenges in preparing skilled officers for senior roles promptly and in holding them accountable4/ Our assessment suggests that Russians are attempting to flank and launch a frontal assault on Chasiv Yar, similar to Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Additional Russian troops are reinforcing the area, likely aiming to take over the southern and northern sectors of Chasiv Yar.5/ If Chasiv Yar falls to Russia, particularly the southern part, they could advance towards Kostyantynivka, disrupting logistics for the force south of Bakhmut. The situation could worsen if Russians move from Ocheretyne towards the road as well.6/ In the Vuhledar-Donetsk area, Russians aim to cut off Kurakhove – a key logistical hub. The establishment of fire control over the road might severe logistics to Kurakhove. The loss of Kurakhove can put the entire grouping of forces in the Vuhledar area into a risky situation.7/ Russians are trying to exploit the current unfavorable situation to achieve ambitious operational goals. How did Ukraine find itself in this situation? It’s the result of several factors: delayed mobilization efforts, delayed Western aid, and inadequate fortifications8/ Trenches provide good protection, but with the excessive use of munition-dropping and kamikaze drones, it’s crucial to have proper top cover for dugouts and trenches, along with concrete structures and drone-catching nets. It requires resources that understaffed brigades lack9/ Can the Russians realistically achieve these objectives in 2024? According to the military theory, once defenses are breached, mechanized units can exploit the opening and move into an “operational space” – a geographical area where units can relatively freely maneuver.10/ Overall, due to losses in vehicles and problematic frontline logistics, the Russian army is unlikely to conduct deep maneuvers into Ukrainian territory as they did during the initial invasion stage. Instead, they will likely focus on attempting to envelop Ukrainian forces11/ The situation on the frontline is expected to stabilize with the arrival of new ammunition, weaponry, and freshly mobilized but trained recruits. However, it is unlikely that we will see stabilization anytime soon, as it takes time to arm, train, and prepare new recruits12/ The situation should not be taken lightly, as the Russian military still has a reserve force equivalent to at least two corps, which could be deployed anywhere, including the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, or to reinforce existing axes of advance if weak spots are identified.13/ It’s one of the most favorable situations for Russia. Failing to capitalize on it would be an indication of their inability to achieve their goal of seizing the entire Donbas region in the foreseeable future. This, in turn, could force a reassessment of their own end goalsThank you for taking the time to read this thread. We appreciate your support and would like to kindly ask for your help. Please consider donating to help us cover the costs of essential resources like licenses and satellite imagery to keep us running
It's definitely not very positive, but not grim. Remember, these are potential advances, displaying their aims and goals. They might have resources on paper to do it, but it doesn't mean they will succeed. Rather, it just shows that the risk is real, not merely a theoretical one
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) April 27, 2024
Orcheretyne, Donetsk Oblast:
According to @Deepstate_UA, Russian forces have captured Berdychi and advanced west of the village, occupied 80% of Ocheretyne, and advanced in Kyslivka.https://t.co/3aNVFshPehhttps://t.co/iyDTIhnc9I https://t.co/ImIccqbWbK pic.twitter.com/9t98J4m0uW
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 27, 2024
«Russians managed to break through and gain a foothold in a certain part of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region» – Khortytsia operational-strategic group representative
According to him, the AFU are taking measures to kick the enemy out from Ocheretyne, heavy fighting is underway. The… pic.twitter.com/6YkgQDGQnZ
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 27, 2024
«Russians managed to break through and gain a foothold in a certain part of Ocheretyne, Donetsk region» – Khortytsia operational-strategic group representative
According to him, the AFU are taking measures to kick the enemy out from Ocheretyne, heavy fighting is underway. The Russian Federation has deployed four brigades there. Ukrainian troops have also pulled up additional means and forces from the reserve.
Serebryansky Forest:
Nightmares in the forest.
Warriors from the Burevii brigade destroy russian armored vehicles in Serebryansky Forest. pic.twitter.com/aNJr5AVZCk— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) April 27, 2024
Odesa:
View from the cabin of Yak-52 which helped to down a Russian drone over Odesa today.
https://t.co/XqkJhEn1DP https://t.co/u3PkwwZ9Cw pic.twitter.com/sOKgq7Nqbq— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 27, 2024
Militarynyi has the details:
In the Odesa region, a Yak-52 piston trainer aircraft shot down a Russian reconnaissance drone.
The corresponding videos were released by local Telegram channels.
The published videos show the moment of descent of an enemy reconnaissance drone on a parachute, which most likely opened due to the operation of automation, around which the Yak-52 was circling.
It can be assumed that the shooting was carried out by the second crew member with a gun or automatic weapon.
Modernization of the Yak-52 with the installation of a heading machine gun in the wing or board is unlikely due to the need for significant and technologically complex interference with the airframe.
Targeting can be performed by third-party targeting via radio communication and a situational awareness system, followed by visual identification of the target.
It is worth noting that the Yak-52, the modification of the Yak-52B, still has the ability to suspend GUV-8700 pods with machine guns or UB-32 with unguided rockets, but such a version existed in a single copy.
Yak-52
Yak-52 is a two-seat single-engine trainer aircraft with a low-wing and three-wheel landing gear, which was mass-produced from 1979 to 1998.
It has a low stall speed of 100-140 kilometers per hour, which allows it to chase drones and, at the same time, to maneuver at relatively low speeds.
The aircraft has a maximum permissible speed of 470 kilometers per hour, a range of up to 500 kilometers and a flight duration of 2.5 hours.
The length of the Yak-52 is 7.745 meters, the wingspan is 9.3 meters, and the wing area is 15 square meters.
The mass is 1035 kilograms, and the maximum takeoff and landing weight is 1315 kilograms.
For you drone enthusiasts:
Not all lessons from Ukraine will apply to NATO militaries, but this is one that will. Russian Orlan ISR UAVs are not very sophisticated but they are cheap and easy to produce. That means Russia produces them in large numbers and they are expendable. But many of the current… https://t.co/fQJFbgmb4w
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 27, 2024
Here’s the whole thread on the orlans from The Thread Reader App:
“Orlan” is one of the main Russian reconnaissance drones in the war against UkraineAmong scientists and analysts studying changes within the russian army and their weapon systems during the military conflicts of recent decades, 2014 is considered a turning point. It can be argued that as early as 2008, after the invasion of Georgia, the russian invaders drew conclusions in preparation for further expansion against their neighbours. Alongside the adoption of the new military doctrine, they realised the opportunities of the intense use of aerial reconnaissance. 1/
In 2013, the “Orlan-10” aircraft-type unmanned aerial system (UAS) was taken into service by the russian armed forces. Although it can hardly be called a technological crown in the industry, nevertheless, in 2014, during the active warfare in Donbas, the system allowed russians to achieve a striking advantage over Ukrainian forces, which, at a certain point, were close to eliminating the russian enclave in the territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions. 2/With the help of these systems, the russians constantly conducted reconnaissance of the Ukrainian territory and, most likely, corrected artillery that fired at our units. Later, “Orlan” became a mass solution for the russian army. Today, its various versions (such as “Orlan-10”, “Orlan-30”, “Mosquito”, etc.) operate on a daily basis on the battlefields of russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine. 3/Despite that fact, one can often find quite strange technical solutions in devices that were shot down or captured by the AFU. For example, a Canon SLR camera or a plastic bottle used as a gas tank. (Yes, these things fly on gasoline). Because of this, “Orlans” became the object of many jokes, kind of, “look, the russians are feeding them with junk”. Looking ahead, I would say there are not so many reasons to laugh about. “Orlan” is a tool widely and often effectively used against us. 4/Versatility of applicationLet’s skip the technical characteristics which can be easily found in the open source, except for specific modifications and what the military conveyor of the occupiers is supplying now. At least 5 km of flight altitude, 120 km of video signal transmission distance, and the ability to fly autonomously for hundreds of kilometres along a defined route (here, the Japanese SLR camera allows obtaining excellent reconnaissance material) make this, far from the most perfect in the world of UAVs thing, an effective and even formidable weapon against us. 5/
“Orlan” is a multi-purpose complex. It is used as a target designator, providing intelligence surveillance and reconnaissance, as an aerial photographer, and as EW/ES when needed. For instance, the Leer-3 EW system includes up to three “Orlan” UAVs which carry reconnaissance and GSM jamming equipment on board. 6/Many missile attacks and shelling of Kyiv during the battle for the capital were carried out based on the results of reconnaissance, conducted by these UAVs. According to various estimations, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the number of these UAVs, owned by the russians, ranged from 1500 to several thousand vehicles. 7/Production and UAV special featuresThere is no doubt that the production of “Orlans” continues today. That is because, firstly, “Orlans” are being lost. Sometimes, they are being shot down, captured, as was in the case of the Kharkiv offensive operation. In other cases, they fall due to technical reasons. There is nothing new or surprising here, as in this war, UAVs are nothing more than consumables. So they are needed in large quantities and literally everywhere. 8/
Secondly, the russians are exporting “Orlans” which may also indicate that production has been running in one way or another.As for the production itself, today, it is known that the russians are able to produce an aerodynamic body without any problems. (Like us, by the way.) Another issue is its “filling” with the components, such as electronics, chips, communication, payload (camera modules, etc.), anti-jamming, and more. Despite Western sanctions, the russians somehow continue receiving components on which this equipment depends. From the open sources, one can learn that the UAVs contain components from the U.S., Japan, China, and a number of European countries. However, it is necessary to understand that the crucial thing is the possibility of using this equipment for its intended purpose. 9/
“Kometa”, an invention of the russian engineers, can serve as a simple example. One of its modifications is installed on the UAV’s board. It is known that “Kometa” has the details designed by U.S. and Taiwanese companies. This so-called CRPA (controlled radiation pattern antenna) has a clearly defined and very important function – to protect the device from the effects of EW measures, which, in turn, attempt to jam the drone’s navigation signal and knock the drone off the course. 10/Imagine you are the operator of such a UAV. To control it from a long distance, you need to have both navigation and video signal. When one of these things is jammed, you still can return the drone (the mode known as RTL, or Return to Launch mode). But if there is neither one nor the other, you are dealing with a big problem. In case you need to work out a UAV mission for a distance of hundreds of kilometres deep into the enemy’s rear, where it has to work in autonomous mode, the lack of navigation simply makes it impossible to conduct the mission. 11/That is why russians seek to gear up their equipment with modules to protect this signal. This allows “Orlan” to perform the function of an aerial photographer for hundreds of kilometres deep into our territory, bringing back the data that the enemy uses, among all, for the conduction of missile strikes. 12/Proven by years of experienceA lot can be said about the pros and cons of this UAS. However, a few facts are indisputable:
● “Orlan-10” and its other modifications should be considered a massive and fairly effective solution which, at various stages of the confrontation between the russian federation and Ukraine, either gave the russians a complete advantage in the aerial reconnaissance component, or did not allow to lose it.
● The enemy has a significant number of the “Orlan” UAVs and vast opportunities for their use both at the frontline and in Ukraine’s rear.
● The use of “Orlan” type UAVs by the russians in Ukraine (since 2014) and in Syria allowed them to gain a lot of practical experience in such application which was significantly expanded during the full-scale war against Ukraine. This enables russians to make not only military but also engineering decisions. This is especially important given the fact that the enemy possesses large resources and an extensive system of companies and design bureaus that implement and improve these solutions, often quite quickly.
● There are still no sufficiently effective solutions to protect Ukraine against the activity of these UAVs and the consequences of this activity. 13/
What to oppose?Despite anything, as of today, we have no analogues of even such an imperfect UAS. It refers to both the technical specifications of this technical solution and the scale, that is, the number of UAVs produced. The point here is that it is not enough to just create a working sample that would bring results. The functioning of mass production and the ability to supply troops and carry out standardisation are necessary. The latter is specifically needed to make it a rather pleasant bonus out of the existing “zoo” of various UAS within the AFU than a problem. 14/
All this should encourage the Ukrainian Defence forces, designers, manufacturers, and state bodies to intensify their work in the direction of design, deployment, and production of their own mass technical solution which would be competitive and able to properly cover the needs of the AFU and other Defence forces participating in the repulsion of russian aggression. In addition, there is a need to speed up the development of tools that would be capable of systematically countering the penetration of enemy UAVs deep into our territory, to our airfields, enterprises, etc. 15/So, it can be said we are rather dealing with the “working horse” of the aggressor’s army, not with an object for jokes. Despite the certain obsolescence and dependence of “Orlan” on Western-made components, it continues performing significant work on the frontline and in the rear, posing a great danger to us. It is a multi-purpose product, capable of correcting the enemy’s artillery on the battlefield, directing missiles and drones at our infrastructure, logistics and military facilities in the rear, as well as carrying out EW/ES tasks. The mass character allows the russians to keep “Orlan” in their arsenal as a “staff” UAS that fits into the system and forms the system itself. This enables maintenance standardisation, operators training, and, at the same time, prevents shortages in UAVs. No UAV of this kind in Ukraine is so massive in numbers. 16/For ASTERO ANALYTICS.Translated by Kate Kistol
Join me in Facebook
And Telegram
Support here
linkedin.com/pulse/orlan-un…
m.facebook.com/osolonko
t.me/silukr/323
Krasnodar Krai, Russia:
The Krasnodar Region, Russia, was under heavy attack last night. The Russian authorities speak of 66 UAVs. Locals reported of heavy explosions of the Slavyansk ECO refinery, which were also partially caught on video.
The administration of the Slavyansk-on-Kuban districts… pic.twitter.com/pCQt5P4nx4
— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) April 27, 2024
The Krasnodar Region, Russia, was under heavy attack last night. The Russian authorities speak of 66 UAVs. Locals reported of heavy explosions of the Slavyansk ECO refinery, which were also partially caught on video.
The administration of the Slavyansk-on-Kuban districts reports that a destillation tower of the oil refinery was struck.
Locals also claim that the Kushchyovskaya airfield was struck but there is no confirmation, yet.
Source: Telegram / Astra
Slavyansk ECO refinery in Slavyansk-on-Kuban had to hit pause after 10 drones swooped in, causing a big fire. pic.twitter.com/Jsm9VTtHCC
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 27, 2024
Not only oil refineries. Kushchyovskaya military air base in Krasnodar Krai also was targeted pic.twitter.com/BnUAWqqVWV
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 27, 2024
Bryansk, Russia:
Air defence activity reported in Bryansk, Russia. 110km from the Ukraine border. pic.twitter.com/Ny4gIKVRIk
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 27, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 24, 2024
Family pic.twitter.com/9SbzXPuWSa
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 22, 2024
Recon pic.twitter.com/D1U4IfCO9p
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 19, 2024
Visiting the #Bogorodychne village where he distributed animal feed to local residents (18 civilians).
For donates: paypal: [email protected]
or https://t.co/EfnXLrFIQBI support the affected and front-line communities a little. pic.twitter.com/1yp3Ij0WX3
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 24, 2024
Open thread!
Saturday Afternoon Open Thread
This post is in: Open Threads
Looks like we could use one! Is there anyone scummier than Bill Barr? Q: Who shielded Trump from accountability the most during his ignominious tenure in the White House? The popular answer is Mitch McConnell. The correct answer is Bill Barr. https://t.co/6pUO37efb1 — Jack E. Smith ⚖️ (@7Veritas4) April 27, 2024 Nominations are open. (But …
- « Go to Previous Page
- Go to page 1
- Go to page 2
- Go to page 3
- Go to page 4
- Go to page 5
- Interim pages omitted …
- Go to page 4774
- Go to Next Page »