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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

We do not need to pander to people who do not like what we stand for.

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

Let me file that under fuck it.

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

One of our two political parties is a cult whose leader admires Vladimir Putin.

Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Democracy is not a spectator sport.

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

They fucked up the fucking up of the fuckup!

America is going up in flames. The NYTimes fawns over MAGA celebrities. No longer a real newspaper.

You would normally have to try pretty hard to self-incriminate this badly.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Michigan, Represent!

by Anne Laurie|  February 27, 20259:40 am| 65 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Democratic Response to Trump 2.0, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Elon Musk

U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) goes after DOGE and OMB Secretary nominee Dan Bishop after he struggles to answer whether President Donald Trump would cut Social Security: "I don't think any American should trust that these programs are safe if you can do anything you want." pic.twitter.com/GNKjlDhCKM

— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) February 25, 2025

Placemarker, because WaterGirl has a serious constructive post in the wings.

Overnight, I pulled together a *bunch* of skeets / tweets on the Repubs’ growing terror at how little the WH Occupants’ proposed budget is going to please their constituents… and a corresponding batch from our Democrats, now in Array. Some of them will probably be outdated by the time most of you see this, anyways, so: Keep the positive thoughts!

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Michigan, Represent!Post + Comments (65)

Economic Blackout Tomorrow

by Betty Cracker|  February 27, 20257:39 am| 181 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

I’m not buying jack-shit tomorrow, not even a Tootsie Roll. Here’s why: (USA Today)

Consumers are planning a one-day economic blackout on Feb. 28. Here’s what to know.

Consumers are preparing for a 24-hour economic blackout on Friday, one of several boycotts planned by groups of consumers or activists to protest what they call corporate greed, companies that have rolled back their diversity, equity and inclusion efforts and President Donald Trump’s efforts to eliminate federal DEI programs since taking office.

On Friday, those groups are encouraging consumers to not spend any money anywhere for one day. If they have spend, they are encouraged to buy from a local business.

I co-sign all the reasons given above and would add this: A right-wing kleptocracy is devouring the federal government like an invasive South Florida python swallowing a Key deer. I wish to register my displeasure with this state of affairs.

Will enough people shut their wallets to gain the oligarchs’ attention? Oh, probably not.

This is America, and we don’t do effective boycotts lately unless they involve a whiny, obscenely wealthy old man-baby getting triggered by an Instagram account he doesn’t follow and riddling a case of Bud Light with bullets from an AR-15.

But goddamn it, we’ve got to DO SOMETHING besides shouting DO SOMETHING at our elected officials.

I admire the moxie of the citizens in other countries who’ve used general strikes to topple autocratic governments and force reconsideration of austerity measures, etc. God knows we could use some of that spirit here since American oligarchs and their elected allies are ramming through a Project 2025 austerity agenda that nobody voted for and the enfeebled ceremonial president explicitly disavowed during the campaign.

However, I suspect Americans are too spoiled and complacent to engage in such an action, at least not yet.

Open thread.

PS: Literally ripped from the headlines:

Shot of the headline of a Washington Post opinion piece by dishonest hack Marc Thiessen. Original headline reads "Trump just dealt Russia a devastating blow." The word "job" has been added in red at the end.

It pissed me off when I read yesterday that the sleazy, 3/4-life-crisis oligarch who runs the Post decreed the opinions page will henceforth focus on “personal liberties and free markets.” But they’ve platformed fascism apologists like Thiessen for decades, so excavation equipment will be required to sink lower anyway. Fuck that rag — I got no more subscriptions to cancel.

Economic Blackout TomorrowPost + Comments (181)

Late Night WH Open Thread: *Not* Nodding Off, Just Playing with… His Phone

by Anne Laurie|  February 26, 202511:54 pm| 103 Comments

This post is in: Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Trump-Musk, Elon Musk

(via Reddit)
Late Night Open Thread 21

richest man in human history thinks this is what cool looks like, we are so unbelievably fucked.
nice belt buckle, dude, they having a rodeo next door or did you get that out of a box of wheaties. nice hat, really covers up the hair plugs. dope shirt, did someone at hot topic find a box from 2012.

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— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 10:07 PM

i could bully elon musk into suicide in five minutes. it’s not a superpower i’m proud of, but i could do it. these are the main thread rags.

— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 10:11 PM

You can't spell felon without elon. www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi…

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— Elizabeth Sacha Baroness Cohen (@alixabeth.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 6:13 PM

To quote R.A. Lafferty, ‘tongue so firmly in cheek as to protrude from the vulgar bodily orifice… ‘

When President Donald Trump convened his Cabinet secretaries for the first meeting of his new term on Wednesday, a tableful of big personalities largely sat and watched as the main character of the early Trump administration took center stage once more.

The group, which included nominees who haven’t yet been confirmed, was also joined by Elon Musk, whose early actions to reshape the federal bureaucracy have stoked rancor and unease among government employees, as well as early murmurs of concern among some Republicans in Congress.

The agency leaders are all working to implement Trump’s agenda at a spitfire pace — but it’s Trump’s billionaire adviser who is in front of the cameras and getting significant credit from Trump, and heat from elsewhere, for some of the defining actions of Trump’s first month back in the White House.

“He’s sacrificing a lot,” Trump said as he introduced Musk. “He’s getting a lot of praise, I’ll tell you, but he’s also getting hit.”

Trump’s first Cabinet meeting outlined the hierarchy in his administration, with many of his Senate-confirmed department heads spending an hour as audience members after the president gave the floor to Musk at the top of the meeting…

show full post on front page

Invited to ask questions of Musk, one reporter wondered why Trump had felt the need early Wednesday to declare that his Cabinet stood behind his cost-cutting ally. Had Musk heard anything about members of the Cabinet who weren’t pleased with his directives?

“ALL CABINET MEMBERS ARE EXTREMELY HAPPY WITH ELON,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “The Media will see that at the Cabinet Meeting this morning!!!”

“Is anybody unhappy?” Trump asked the room, which broke out in applause. “I think everyone’s not only happy, they’re thrilled.”

Musk praised the group assembled as “literally the best.”…

The White House denied reporters from Reuters and other news organizations access to President Donald Trump’s first cabinet meeting in keeping with the administration’s new policy regarding media coverage reut.rs/3CXAw31

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— Reuters (@reuters.com) February 26, 2025 at 2:44 PM

(In my defense: I’m still hoping that AI ‘Trump Gaza’ monstrosity turns out to be a hoax and not a bid for investors.)

Late Night WH Open Thread: *Not* Nodding Off, Just Playing with… His PhonePost + Comments (103)

Game Theory Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  February 26, 20259:50 pm| 43 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

No, not that game theory.

I play Waffle, Waffle Royale, and Waffle’s One Word Search every day.  The goal is to solve the puzzles with 5 stars remaining.   A perfect score, if you will.  And if you get 5 stars on Waffle or Waffle Royale you get a lovely colored light show as your reward.

A Little Thing That Makes You Happy (even for just a minute)

Only once have I gotten 5 stars on all 3 games on the same day.  That was fun!  But if I have fewer than 4 stars on any of them, I am disappointed.

I have my own theory related to games.  All the madness and the relentless gutting of government is definitely affecting my brain, even during play where I attempted to escape the madness.  Whether it’s lack of patience or lack of methodical thinking, or if half of my brain continuing to scream “oh my god” is interrupting pattern recognition, I do not know.

Without getting into too many details, let’s just say I have been disappointed many times in the past weeks.

All I know is that we all need to bring our best game to this fight, and I still can’t quite do it.  But I’m getting there!

I feel as though most of us have been Obama in that first debate with Romney, when Romney spewed so many lies so fast that Obama couldn’t get his feet under him.  Including and especially many of our elected officials.  (But even this is getting better since I first started this post a couple of weeks ago!)

In the first days of the war in Ukraine, even regular people like us were doing what they could, which was making molotov cocktails.  Here in the US, I feel like for awhile we were all standing around with our eyes blinking like hostages trying to figure out what the fuck to do as our government is being overtaken.  All the parts of government that are supposed to protect us are now wearing the Confederate uniforms, fighting for the other side.

We just have to keep on keeping on as we figure it out.  Bit by bit it feels like we are getting it together.

Open thread.

Game Theory Open ThreadPost + Comments (43)

War for Ukraine Day 1,098: The Russian Drone Swarms Keep Coming

by Adam L Silverman|  February 26, 20258:13 pm| 46 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Two-thirds of Ukraine is under air raid alert for drone swarms of 7:15 PM EST/2:15 AM local time in Ukraine.

The cost:

Iryna “Cheka” Tsibukh, a combat medic.

Now decorated with the Hero of Ukraine title.

Posthumously…

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 6:41 PM

“A ceasefire without security guarantees – this will not happen.” – Zelensky.

The President of Ukraine emphasized that Ukrainians must be certain that “the war will not start again tomorrow.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 10:45 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Our Teams Are Working With the United States, We Are Preparing for Negotiations As Early as This Friday – Address by the President of Ukraine

26 February 2025 – 20:52

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

The main points for today.

The meeting of the Staff. Very good details regarding our drones, of our domestic production. There were reports that inspire confidence. And this is important.

Of course, we are analyzing the volumes of support coming from each partner: America, Europe, and other parts of the world. What is irreplaceable, what can be replaced. We are working to ensure that Ukrainian positions are protected under any circumstances. And this is one of the key conditions for the diplomacy we need – for the right diplomacy that will guarantee peace for Ukraine.

There was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi – the front and the Kursk operation. I am grateful to all our warriors in the Donetsk region who are repelling assaults and counterattacking. I will especially commend the 33rd and 225th Assault Regiments.

And it will soon be seven months since our guys have been holding the “buffer zone” on the territory of the aggressor – in Russia – they have almost grown accustomed to the Kursk region. Our “Eighty” – the 80th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade – I thank you all, warriors! Good results in the Kursk region.

Today, there was a lot of international work. Our teams are working with the United States, we are preparing for negotiations as early as this Friday. The agreement with America. Support for our state and people. Guarantees of peace and security – this is the key to ensuring that Russia will no longer destroy the lives of other nations. I will meet with President Trump. For me and for all of us in the world, it is crucial that America’s assistance is not stopped. Strength is essential on the path to peace.

Today, I spoke with the Prime Minister of Portugal. We are coordinating all our efforts with the broadest possible circle of partners. Europeans must be part of all diplomatic efforts concerning Europe, and this is not just a matter of the present; it must always be the practice: Europe must never be left somewhere behind – relegated to second or third priority. I thanked Portugal for its unwavering support, and we agreed on upcoming contacts.

And one more thing.

Today, I signed decrees to honor our people: both military and civilian, men and women, those who defend our state, those who defended our state. In particular, I awarded Iryna Tsybukh, a combat medic, a very well-known person, with the title of Hero of Ukraine, tragically posthumously. We remember. We remember absolutely everyone who fought for our state, for our people – for the very right of Ukrainians to live their lives on their own land. This right of Ukrainians is beyond doubt. Guarantees of peace and security. The sovereignty of our state. Territorial integrity. We are working for this. I thank all our partners who support us. I thank all our people who believe in Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

He also held a press conference today:

First Lady Zelenska did an interview today with the Italian information and political talk show Quarta Repubblica.

She also addressed the audience of the Polish Opera where the Ukrainian Freedom Opera gave a concert.

Georgia:

Rustaveli is blocked again by protesters. Day 91 of continuous protests. The demands remain the same: re-holding parliamentary elections and freeing all political prisoners.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 1:07 PM

Day 91. Following the protest tradition, we name regime prisoners as well as the Georgian fighters fallen in Ukraine.

We demand the release of the prisoners and new, free and fair elections, without which nothing in the country will be unsustainable. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 1:02 PM

‘The scorching sun of Georgia will end the northern frost’ — a banner from yesterday’s protest, held on the 104th anniversary of Russia’s Soviet occupation of Georgia.

📷 Nino Chichua

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 12:42 PM

On the day of Soviet occupation, President Zourabichvili addressed the Rustaveli protest and underlined the importance of not allowing another Russian occupation to succeed.

She also noted that no such crisis could ever be solved without new elections, which is inevitable.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 6:35 AM

🧵 According to Salome @Zourabichvili_S, the plan is as follows:

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:48 AM

1. New Elections – Establishing the conditions for fair elections.

2. Preparation – Organizing an “army” of election commissions and observers.

3. Election Integrity – Preventing fraud in the new elections with the participation of international partners.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:48 AM

4. Political Coordination – Ensuring cooperation between political forces for the elections.

5. Unified Election Program – “Georgian Charter” and Its Priorities:

▸ Release of political prisoners

▸ Abolition of Russian laws

▸ Restoration of a fair judiciary

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:48 AM

Romania:

🇷🇴Romanian media reports that the pro-Russian former presidential candidate of Romania, Georgescu, was detained: his car was stopped on the road. He was then sent for questioning to the Prosecutor General’s Office.

More details: www.digi24.ro/stiri/actual…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:06 AM

🇷🇴/2. It is also reported that Romanian prosecutors are conducting searches at the homes of people in the network of Horațiu Potra, the head of a mercenary band that provides protection to Călin Georgescu.

Prosecutors found weapons and ammunition in a house inhabited by Horațiu Potra and his son.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:23 AM

🇷🇴/3. Also, prosecutors found about $1.5 million in a safe buried in the floor of Horațiu Potra’s house as well as tickets to Moscow.

More details and footages: www.g4media.ro/surse-procur…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:24 AM

🇷🇴/4. Prosecutors from the General Prosecutor’s Office found large amounts of weapons and ammunition at the residences associated with Georgescu.

Grenades, submachine guns, and short-barreled pistols and even grenade launchers were found.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 10:12 AM

🇷🇴/5. At the same time, investigators found $2.9 million in cash stashed in multiple locations. In one location was $1.3 million and in another location was $1.6 million.

Article: www.ordinea.ro/arme-grenade…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 10:15 AM

From Politico:

Romania’s pro-Russia presidential election front-runner Călin Georgescu was questioned for hours on Wednesday by prosecutors after being taken in by police in Bucharest, in relation to last November’s controversial canceled vote that he won.

Georgescu was indicted on six counts and put under judicial control for 60 days, which allows him to walk free but not to leave the country, according to Romanian media reports.

“We go forward. We will not kneel under any circumstances,” Georgescu said Wednesday evening upon leaving the prosecutor’s office amid chants of support from hundreds of people who gathered to protest his questioning.

“American sanctions will clarify the situation in Romania,” he added, according to TV channel Digi24. Georgescu didn’t specify what that entailed, but seemed to suggest the United States would come to his support after Republican vice-president JD Vance and President Donald Trump’s billionaire adviser Elon Musk have pointed to the situation in Romania to accuse the European Union of cracking down on free speech and other civil rights.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The prosecutor’s office attached to the High Court of Justice and Cassation said an individual was indicted Wednesday for incitement to action against the constitutional order, false statements, starting a fascist, racist or xenophobic organization, among others, but didn’t name Georgescu. The prosecutor’s office didn’t respond to a request to confirm the indicted individual is Georgescu.

Georgescu’s questions came after prosecutors searched the premises of his close associates, including mercenary leader Horațiu Potra and Georgescu’s bodyguard.

Romanian news channel Antena 3 CNN reported Georgescu was being questioned in connection with the financing of his election campaign last year.

Prosecutors suspect 27 people of acting against Romania’s constitutional order, public incitement, initiation of a fascist organization and false statements regarding the sources of financing an election campaign, but they didn’t name Georgescu or his aides in their statement.

Conservative allies of US President Donald Trump are furious following Romanian police’s detention of far-right presidential front-runner Călin Georgescu today.

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— POLITICO Europe (@politico.eu) February 26, 2025 at 11:10 AM

Also, from Politico:

Conservative allies of United States President Donald Trump are furious following Romanian police’s detention Wednesday of far-right presidential front-runner Călin Georgescu.

“They just arrested the person who won the most votes in the Romanian presidential election. This is messed up,” tech billionaire and White House adviser Elon Musk wrote on X.

While he’s not yet been formally arrested, police have taken in Georgescu for questioning regarding last November’s controversial first round of the presidential election in which he emerged victorious before being was annulled by the country’s Constitutional Court.

Georgescu and the canceled Romanian vote have become something of a cause célèbre for U.S. conservatives as they look to boost right-wing politicians around Europe.

Another prominent MAGA influencer and conspiracy theorist Jack Posobiec referred to U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference — where he hit out against Romania’s highest court, saying its winter ruling undermined European democracy — in an excoriating X post Thursday.

“JD: The EU has abandoned traditional values. You just overturned the elections in Romania EU Leaders: Lies! Disgrace! Fascist! Also EU: arrests Romanian presidential candidate and his supporters as soon as JD leaves,” Posobiec posted, which Musk shared.

The Romanian court wiped out the results of last November’s first-round election over suspicions that a Russian influence operation boosted the candidacy of Georgescu, who is pro-Kremlin and has advocated for the end of European support to Ukraine.

Musk also reposted a message from the leader of Romania’s far-right AUR party, George Simion, who called for a protest in front of the prosecutor’s office. There, a crowd of about 200 people chanted Georgescu’s name, waving Romanian flags and booing.

“[Georgescu] was coming to [the] AUR headquarters to make the file for his candidacy [for] the president’s office. We raised 300,000 signatures for him,” Simion said on X.

This is hardly surprising. Can I just say that Romania is absolutely fantastic? russia is trying to wreak havoc in their country, and they are having none of it. Zero! Bravo! 👏

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 8:52 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Ukraine has:

Liberated 7% of the 27% of its territory invaded by fascist Russia

Forced Russia’s Black Sea Fleet from Ukraine’s territory

Decimated Russia’s army

Significantly damaged Russia’s oil and gas sector

Withstood 3 Russian winter bombing campaigns

#RussiaNotWinning

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 4:45 AM

Explainer: What are the terms of the US-Ukraine minerals deal? www.ft.com/content/51b3…

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) February 26, 2025 at 12:00 PM

From The Financial Times:

 

Ukraine and the US have struck a deal on the joint development of the country’s mineral resources through a “reconstruction investment fund”.

The agreement, dated February 25 and first obtained by the Financial Times, is a lot less onerous and sweeping than Washington’s initial proposal.

An earlier reference to a possible $500bn of revenues from mineral extraction has been dropped. Nor is there any explicit US guarantee of Ukrainian security that Kyiv wanted in return for sharing profits from its valuable natural resources.

While Ukrainian negotiators were able to narrow down the scope of the deal and push back on some of the more onerous terms demanded by the Trump administration, several crucial details have yet to be decided.

Where will revenues from Ukrainian mineral extraction go?

Kyiv and Washington will set up a “joint investment fund” into which Ukraine will pay 50 per cent of all revenues earned from the “future monetisation” of natural resources owned by the Ukrainian government.

In theory, the fund will invest in Ukraine’s postwar reconstruction and economic development, potentially across all sectors not just natural resources.

Will the US own and control the fund?

It will be jointly owned and managed by the US and Ukrainian governments but, crucially, further details of ownership and governance will be hammered out at a later stage in a “fund agreement”. In its opening bid, the US had pushed for 100 per cent ownership and full decision-making rights.

Instead, the deal says the “maximum percentage of ownership of the fund’s equity” held by the US and “the decision-making authority” will be “to the extent permissible under US laws”. This may be because US agencies may face limits on their participation in such a fund.

For example, if it were the US Development Finance Corporation managing the US interest in this fund, under existing legislation its equity investments would be capped at 30 per cent ownership of any project.
Neither the US nor Ukraine will be able to sell any share of the fund without the other’s consent.

Will revenues be invested in Ukraine or paid out to the US?

This is also vague and will be decided in the fund agreement.

The deal says the fund will collect and reinvest revenues “at least annually in Ukraine to promote the safety, security and prosperity of Ukraine”.

But it does not stipulate that all revenues will be reinvested and it adds that the subsequent fund agreement will “provide for future distributions”.

More at the link.

The full text of the agreement can be found at this link.

“Experts cannot recall a precedent for the United States, or any other country, extracting cash or resources from its own allies during a time of war”
www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/w…

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— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 1:45 AM

From The New York Times:

The agreement, in its current form, would not include any explicit security guarantees to deter Russian aggression. The White House has argued that the mere existence of American economic interests should be sufficient for Ukraine, which is facing a harsh reality: The United States wants to be paid in exchange for helping the country fend off an invader.

“What better could you have for Ukraine than to be in an economic partnership with the United States?” Mike Waltz, the U.S. national security adviser, said on Friday.

Mr. Trump has long demanded that NATO and other allies contribute more to their own defense. But the minerals agreement would represent a major escalation in his transactional approach to foreign policy.

The United States was once seen as the world’s policeman, but to many analysts it now seems more like an extortionate Mafia kingpin.

The explicit demand for Ukraine’s mineral wealth while the country is in dire straits has the “feel of a protection racket,” said Virginia Page Fortna, a political scientist at Columbia University who is a leading expert on peace agreements.

“The new security guarantee is essentially a shakedown,” said Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, referring to the statement by Mr. Waltz that being in “economic partnership” with the United States would ensure Ukraine’s security.

Experts cannot recall a precedent for the United States, or any other country, extracting cash or resources from its own allies during a time of war. They say Mr. Trump’s transactional diplomacy sends a message to allies that the United States cannot be trusted to help its friends or honor its obligations. And it tells his adversaries that he is willing to give up long-term strategic interests for short-term wins, experts say.

Speaking in the Oval Office on Friday, Mr. Trump said, “We’re going to either sign a deal, or there’s going to be a lot of problems with them.”

During my reporting for this column, I spoke to six experts on peace negotiations. None of them were aware of any situation in which the United States or any other country demanded a formal payment agreement from its own partner during a war.

It might seem like the demand that Ukraine hand over its mineral wealth is just Mr. Trump being blunt about a diplomatic truth that is usually left unsaid: That security guarantees often have an implicit price. But in fact, experts say his approach represents a radical departure for American foreign policy.
Image

There are plenty of cases in which the United States has used its military might to protect U.S. economic interests. For example, ensuring access to oil has been a central pillar of U.S. policy in the Middle East, most notably in the first Gulf War, when the U.S. defended Kuwait from an invasion by Iraq.

But the United States “never said to the Kuwaitis, ‘Hey, you gotta pay us for this,’” said Mr. Cook of the Council on Foreign Relations. Allies such as Saudi Arabia helped to fund the Gulf War, but not under duress. “It wasn’t like Dick Cheney showed up in Saudi Arabia in August and said, ‘Here’s our terms,’” Cook added.

The president’s latest tactics suggest that he is trying to apply the lessons of machine politics in New York City, where he built his real-estate career, to the world of international relations.

As my colleague Maggie Haberman has reported, Mr. Trump’s model of leadership seems to be based on figures like Meade Esposito, a boss of the Brooklyn Democratic machine who controlled patronage jobs and ruled with an “iron fist.” In machine politics, every decision is essentially an opportunity for political bosses to extract benefits for themselves and their supporters, and extracting more favors is a signal of more power.

But scholars of international relations say that foreign policy doesn’t work that way.

In international relations, credibility is a crucial element of power. Deterrence depends on whether a country keeps its promises. Without that credibility, hostile countries are more likely to test the limits.

It is no longer clear which countries the Trump administration sees as friends and which it sees as foes.

But in either case, his actions also send a clear message that the United States is at best an unreliable and expensive partner — and at worst that it will treat any country’s dependence on the United States as a weakness to exploit, experts said.

“What we’re seeing is a successful short-run strategy and a disastrous long-run strategy,” said Joseph Nye, a political scientist at the Harvard Kennedy School who coined the term “soft power.”

A coercive, adversarial approach like Mr. Trump’s can arguably be effective at extracting short-term concessions, Nye said. Canada and Mexico both promised to increase border security and pursue better fentanyl enforcement, which won them a 30-day reprieve on the tariffs that he threatened.

But in the long term, countries that are currently partners in U.S. trade and foreign policy now have a strong incentive to seek closer relationships with countries like China.

In Europe, there is already a push to increase military spending in order to be less reliant on the United States, which could have unpredictable consequences. Turkey, which has the second-largest military of any NATO country, could become a more important regional power.

Analysts say Mr. Trump’s foreign policy sends a message to Russia and other hostile countries that may be even more consequential: that the United States is willing to prioritize short-term financial gain over its broader long-term interests.

Or perhaps the United States could simply be bought out with a better offer. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia said on Monday that the U.S.-Ukraine minerals deal was not a concern to him because Russia has “significantly more resources of this kind than Ukraine.” He is ready to “offer” mineral resources to American partners, he said, including from the “new territories” Russia has occupied in eastern Ukraine.

Much more at the link.

Another spotted Russian infantry convoy on horses.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 11:02 AM

I believe the technical term for this is cavalry.

‼️”Now we are starting to shoot down Shahed kamikaze drones with FPV drones. And this is already giving real results.” – commander of the Unmanned Systems Forces of Ukraine

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 9:39 AM

In a new video recording of the combat work of “Khartia,” enemy shelters and infantry are hit as they desperately try to escape Ukrainian drones by any means possible. Of course, they don’t succeed.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 10:58 AM

Kostiantynivka:

Russian troops launched nine aerial bombs on Kostiantynivka today, killing five civilians and injuring 11.
#UkraineView

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 3:39 PM

The center of Kostyantynivka after a Russian air bomb strike.

At least five people are confirmed dead and eight wounded in the city and surrounding areas.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 11:12 AM

Kharkiv:

Russian drones in Kharkiv skies right now ‼️ air defense is working

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 6:28 PM

Three russian Geran/Shahed drones attacked Kharkiv last night. One struck the city’s central street near Shevchenko Garden, another destroyed a café in a different neighborhood, and the third hit an apartment building on the second floor, injuring two people and turning their home into a nightmare.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 12:27 AM

Kharkiv after tonight’s russian drone attack on the city

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 9:23 PM

Kharkiv tonight after the russian drone strike on the city

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 8:20 PM

This is Kharkiv in its essence: on one side of the street, workers put up spring decorations to lift the spirits of the city; on the other, they clear the wreckage from a russian drone strike the night before. Resilience isn’t just a word here — it’s daily life.

[image or embed]

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 5:33 AM

Kyiv:

During a nighttime russian drone attack on the Kyiv region, journalist Tetiana Kulik and her husband, renowned oncologist Pavlo Ivanchov, were killed when a drone struck their home in the Bucha district, causing a fire.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 6:43 AM

While Trump talks about how much Putin wants peace, the Russians were launching UAVs at the Kyiv region. Rescuers released a video from the site where debris from Russian drones hit the Bucha distric – there are dead and wounded.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:48 AM

Tuapse, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

/1. Russian oil refiner on Tuapse was targeted by drones tonight. Two drones targeted the territory of the enterprise. As a result, part of the ELOU-AVT-12 was damaged. The crude oil pipeline was also damaged.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 4:14 AM

/2. This is the only oil refining unit on the plant’s territory. Its damage means the plant will be out of action until the damage is repaired.

The capacity of the ELOU-AVT-12 is 12 million tons/year of oil. t.me/astrapress/7…

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 4:15 AM

Moscow:

“There will be no cessation of hostilities in Ukraine along the line of contact. We have a constitution.” – Lavrov.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 26, 2025 at 7:03 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,098: The Russian Drone Swarms Keep ComingPost + Comments (46)

Who Stole Her Philtrum

by John Cole|  February 26, 20256:14 pm| 139 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Clown Shoes

Are there 10000 substantive issues I could discuss?

Yes, of course.

Are we not supposed to discuss people’s looks?

Also yes.

Am I going to anyway?

If you guessed yes, you are correct.

I can not stop thinking about this so now you aren’t allowed to either. Why does Karoline Leavitt look like someone used the adobe blur tool on her upper lip and then forgot to go back in and recreate a philtrum?

Who Stole Her Philtrum

WHY?

Who Stole Her PhiltrumPost + Comments (139)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Barely A Month Into the Season, and He’s Losing the Target Demographic

by Anne Laurie|  February 26, 20258:44 am| 121 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Trump Crime Cartel

There were a lot of hilarious signs at today’s Philly protest (because Philly has A+ protest sign game), but this was my favorite from an “I want that as a tattoo” perspective.

[image or embed]

— Leonore (Lee) Carpenter (@leecarpenter.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 8:39 PM

“Trump has spent more personal time trying to negotiate a truce to professional golf’s civil war — including a three-hour meeting in the Oval Office on Thursday that included Tiger Woods — than he has dedicated to trying to hammer out a deal to keep the government funded.” (Paul Kane is good).
[image or embed]

— Jonathan Bernstein (@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social) February 23, 2025 at 2:47 PM


Per the Washington Post, “Trump, schmoozing Saudis, plays two roles: President and mogul” [gift link]

In back-to-back events last week, President Donald Trump held court with Saudi government officials and investors who do business with his family’s firms.

On Wednesday, he made a special trip to Miami to appear at a beachfront conference hosted by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, which has invested $2 billion in a business run by the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and is the main backer of LIV Golf, the upstart golf league that has held five tournaments at Trump’s courses since it launched in 2022, with a sixth scheduled for April at Trump National Doral in Miami. Trump has not disclosed his profits from the events. Kushner, Trump’s “first buddy” Elon Musk and other family business associates of Trump and his Middle East envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, also attended.

Less than 24 hours later, Trump hosted Yasir al-Rumayyan — who runs the Saudi fund and oversees LIV Golf — for a meeting at the White House. On the agenda: a potential reunification of the golf world.

The meetings demonstrated how Trump has blended the roles of president and business mogul. But “it’s hard to see how any of those meetings have anything to do with our interests as American taxpayers,” said Don Fox, former general counsel for the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.

If Trump could help engineer a PGA-LIV deal, he might be seen as a hero to the sport of golf — and more business in turn would flow to his properties, golf experts say.

While it’s not clear how much revenue any single tournament generates for Trump’s golf properties, courses that stage professional tournaments often see profits of six figures or more for higher-profile events — along with the associated fame, prestige and increased demand for tee times year-round….

Trump’s involvement in the potential LIV-PGA deal is “disturbing” because “he has been collecting millions of dollars from LIV Golf at various of his golf properties” and is essentially the Saudi league’s “business partner,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland), who probed the Trump family’s business ties to foreign powers while serving as the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee.

“One doesn’t know if he is acting as president of the United States or simply as a businessman, in trying to promote this merger,” Raskin said.

The White House referred The Washington Post to the Trump Organization, which is run by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, for comment about steps the president is taking to minimize conflicts in these matters. The Trump Organization and Witkoff’s company did not respond to requests for comment. The Saudi government and the Saudi Public Investment Fund declined interview requests. Kushner declined an interview request…

show full post on front page

'Anxiety is showing up in the markets.' Wall Street getting antsy about Trump's economy. 👀👀🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬 pic.twitter.com/m4CQmIK3nW

— ✙ Dymtrus WhatSpecialOperationDoing? ✙ (@eightynines) February 25, 2025

Even the Very Serious NYTimes… “Wall Street Is Getting Antsy With Trump”: [gift link]

President Trump’s keynote this week at a Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s conference in Miami Beach might have seemed like another jubilant pep rally attended by adoring fans and key lieutenants.

Elon Musk sat in the front under a vast rotunda, not far from the real estate billionaire Steve Witkoff, now a White House special envoy to the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. All received shout-outs from Mr. Trump, and frequently laughed at the president’s early jokes during his 90-minute talk.

But in the venue’s packed lobby, which had been repurposed as an overflow room with television screens set up for roughly 150 finance types, the mood was a bit antsy…

These portfolio managers and financial consultants, many in dark suits, had waited for about three hours to secure a coveted seat in the Faena Forum, a pearly white hotel and conference center co-owned by a major Trump donor.

That this crowd waited just to see Mr. Trump on a closed-circuit screen on Wednesday was an indication of their collective enthusiasm for, or at least acute interest in, what Mr. Trump would say in his first second-term, in-person address to the international business set, a group that had high hopes for his return to office.

They applauded at first, as Mr. Trump declared what many longed to hear: that the “United States is back and open for business,” that he was ending burdensome regulations and that a golden era for cryptocurrencies had begun.

But rather than continue to address economic issues as many in attendance had expected, Mr. Trump devoted most of his remarks to recapping his electoral win, criticizing the president of Ukraine and reading off a list of supposed savings from the Department of Government Efficiency, some of which were earlier debunked. He also briefly mentioned tariffs and deregulation, only the latter of which received applause.

Within 20 minutes, the overflow room was talking over the president, and those present were asking if it was rude to leave. Plenty did; by the time Mr. Trump had finished, the room was half empty. Those who stuck around were treated to the view of Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary during Mr. Trump’s first term, making a silent beeline from the main auditorium as soon the president wrapped up his remarks. (A spokesman for Mr. Mnuchin said he had been due at a previously scheduled meeting.)

The Miami area should have been a fitting setting for Mr. Trump to reintroduce himself to the world of finance. Miami has tried to remake itself as the Wall Street of the south, a haven for crypto firms and hedge funds, with lower taxes and nicer weather.

Yet the city’s most prominent financial name, Kenneth Griffin, skipped Mr. Trump’s speech…

There were warmer feelings a few feet from the Faena pool, where Alex Konanykhin, head of the cryptocurrency firm Unicoin, lounged with his custom blazer hanging off a chair.

Mr. Konanykhin recently returned to the United States after spending a few years in self-described “business exile in Switzerland,” as the Securities and Exchange Commission investigated Unicoin for fraud.

Mr. Konanykhin said he was relieved because of his belief that his company’s crypto actions were not dissimilar to the Trump family’s $Trump coin…


Hey, we’re all grifters together, aren’t we?…

It’s fine to admit the libs were right about him and Russia. It’s a new day, we should all work together. https://t.co/E0PoWgeFv1

— Egg Price Sufferer (@agraybee) February 26, 2025

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Barely A Month Into the Season, and He’s Losing the Target DemographicPost + Comments (121)

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