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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

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War for Ukraine Day 1,036: Putin and the Russians Deliver a Bitter Present to Ukraine on Christmas Day

by Adam L Silverman|  December 25, 20249:41 pm| 11 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A screen grab of NEIVANMADE's Christmas 2023 art. It shows Joseph and Mary standing over the baby Jesus in a crib/manger. All have Orthodox style halos. The sky behind them is a dark blue and there is a golden thatched roof over them. To the left of the top of the roof's center a star/comet is visible.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia targeted Ukraine’s power grid and energy infrastructure this morning. All of these are civilian targets. All of these strikes are war crimes.

Over 70 missiles were launched by russia at Ukraine this Christmas morning.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 6:17 AM

Merry Christmas?

Russians launched over 70 missiles at Ukraine today, attacking Ukrainian energy sector. 50 destroyed.

🛑Kharkiv. 11 explosions in 30 sec
6 injured
🛑Vinnytsia region
🛑Poltava region
🛑Kriviy Ryh, yesterday missile attack, 1 killed, 17 injured

Power outages.

[image or embed]

— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 5:05 AM

⚡️Update: Russia launches over 70 missiles, more than 100 drones at Ukraine in mass attack.

Russia launched more than 70 missiles, including ballistic ones, and over 100 drones in a mass aerial attack against Ukraine’s energy grid on Dec. 25, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 25, 2024 at 4:36 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Russia launched a mass aerial attack against Ukraine on Dec. 25, targeting cities across the country with missiles and drones.

The northeastern city of Kharkiv was among the hardest hit, coming under “massive fire” from ballistic missiles, according to local authorities. At least six people were injured, Governor Oleh Syniehubov said.

Explosions were also reported in Dnipro, Kremenchuk, Kryvyi Rih, and the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk.

Russia launched 78 missiles and 106 drones, the Air Force said. Ukraine shot down 55 Kh-101/Kh-55/Kalibr cruise missiles and four Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, as well as 54 Shahed-type drones and other types of drones, according to the report. Another 52 drones were “lost.”

“Every Russian massive strike takes time to prepare. It is never a spontaneous decision. It is a conscious choice not only of targets but also of time and date,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

Multiple cities in Ukraine imposed emergency blackouts following the attack.

Ukraine’s largest private energy company, DTEK, reported that Russia had attacked its thermal power plants, “seriously damaging equipment.” The location of the facilities was not disclosed.

The Air Force reported that Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers had taken flight overnight, and later announced that a number of Kalibr cruise missiles had been launched from the Black Sea.

Poland scrambled fighter jets in response to the Russian missile threat in western Ukraine, the Polish Operational Command reported.

A series of explosions were reported in Kharkiv after the Air Force warned of a ballistic missile threat against the city. At least seven missile strikes targeted the city, Syniehubov said.  The attacks caused fires and damage to civilian infrastructure, he added.

Located only 30 kilometers from the Russian border, Kharkiv has suffered relentless aerial attacks over the past two years of the full-scale war.

Mayor Ihor Terekhov on Dec. 24 announced that the city had put up holiday decorations and lights for the first time since Russia’s February 2022 invasion. The decorations are “a symbol of (Kharkiv’s) resolve,” Terekhov said.

The Russian attack on energy infrastructure in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast killed one person, Governor Serhii Lysak said.

Energy infrastructure was also targeted in Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts, according to local authorities. In Kyiv Oblast, drone debris damaged a cafe, three houses and 12 trucks, Governor Ruslan Kravchenko said.

The mass attack follows a ballistic missile strike against Kryvyi Rih on Christmas Eve. The missile struck an apartment building in the city, killing one civilian and injuring 15 more.

More at the link.

More on these strikes after the jump.

The cost:

Don’t feel guilt for celebrating Christmas with your family. Feel gratitude. But don’t stay silent about those in Ukraine who can’t. Speak for the ones whose tables are empty, whose homes are gone, whose loved ones are missing.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 7:07 AM

In the photo is Ukrainian power engineer, Dmytro Petlenko. He was killed by the enemy on Christmas night during missile strikes on the thermal power plant.

Dmytro was 51. He dedicated over 30 years to his profession. In recent years, he fought for light.

Eternal memory to him.
t.me/c/1604466036…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 11:21 AM

President Zelenskyy did not deliver an address today. He did present apartment certificates to families of Ukrainian Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and/or Marines killed in action.

show full post on front page

President Zelenskyy and First Lady Zelenska met with a large foster family today and presented them with a new home from First Lady Zelenska’s foundation.

President and First Lady Visited a Large Foster Family

25 December 2024 – 15:29

On the occasion of Christmas, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy and First Lady Olena Zelenska visited the large foster family of the Alekseienkos and presented them with the keys to their new home. The house was built as part of the second wave of the Olena Zelenska Foundation’s project, “Room for Childhood.”

Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Olena Zelenska toured the fully furnished and equipped house and talked with the family.

“We wish you happy holidays. May Christmas bring you many gifts you’ve been wishing for. We hope everything here will be good and warm for you,” said the First Lady.

The Alekseienko family thanked the Olena Zelenska Foundation and everyone involved in the project for the new home for their family, as such a house had been a dream for their children.

“You have given us hope and faith that even in the most difficult times, there are people willing to help,” they said.

The Alekseienko family, which includes ten foster children, lived in a 100-square-meter home near Kakhovka until 2022. However, due to Russia’s full-scale invasion and the occupation of their village, they were forced to leave their home and evacuate.

Last year, during the first wave of the project, 14 large foster families from 8 regions of Ukraine received new homes with the support of the Olena Zelenska Foundation. In the second wave, the Foundation plans to provide housing to 10 more families. The Alekseienko family was the first of the second wave to receive a new home on Christmas Eve.

The main goal of the “Room for Childhood” project is to support large foster families who lost their homes as a result of Russian aggression.

President Zelenskyy also lit Hanukkah candles with a group of Ukrainian rabbis today.

The President Lit Hanukkah Candles with Rabbis

25 December 2024 – 19:15

On the occasion of the beginning of the Hanukkah holiday, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took part in the Hanukkah candle-lighting ceremony together with the rabbis of Ukraine.

Chief Rabbi of Dnipro Shmuel Kaminetsky said a blessing and spoke about the meaning of Hanukkah, which symbolizes a great miracle.

“The battle between light and darkness continues. We see that thanks to you, the axis of evil is becoming much weaker, and we will soon defeat it. We will light these candles and hope that the Almighty will help us, and we will pray with everyone to see great miracles soon,” he said.

The Head of State congratulated the Jewish community on the holiday and thanked them for their prayers for Ukraine and Ukrainians.

“Thank you for being in Ukraine and supporting everyone. We have a unique country – today we celebrate both Christmas and Hanukkah. It is very good that in Ukraine we can all live together, fighting the darkness with the light that we have,” the President said.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy pointed out that the Hanukkah menorah lit today was presented to him by the President of Argentina, Javier Milei, during his inauguration last December, when it was the fourth of the eight days of Hanukkah 5784.

Rabbi Meir Stambler, Chairman of the Council of the Federation of Jewish Communities of Ukraine, noted that Hanukkah also reminds the world of the victory of a small number of people over a powerful enemy.

The ceremony was also attended by Chief Rabbi of Beit Menachem Chabad (Kyiv) Jonathan Markovitch, Chief Rabbi of the Jewish Religious Community of the Central Synagogue of Kyiv Moshe Azman, Chief Rabbi of Simcha Chabad Left Bank (Kyiv) Mordechai Levenharts, Chief Rabbi of Lviv Mordechai Bald, Chief Rabbi of Mykolaiv Shalom Gottlieb, Chief Rabbi of Odesa Avraham Wolff, Chief Rabbi of Sumy Yechiel Levitansky, Chief Rabbi of Kharkiv Moshe Moskowitz, Chief Rabbi of Kherson Yossef Wolff, and Deputy Chairman of the Council of the Federation of Jewish Communities of Ukraine Rabbi Raphael Rutman.

Georgia:

1/ A Unity March was held in Tbilisi, featuring participation from Georgian citizens of Armenian, Azerbaijani, Kist, Kurdish, Jewish, and other ethnic backgrounds.

#GeorgiaProtests Day 28

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 1:45 PM

2/ At the end of the march, participants celebrated Hanukkah with the Jewish community in front of the Parliament.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 1:45 PM

3/ The Unity March, which started at First Republic Square and ended at the Parliament, was joined by a march of financiers, bankers, and accountants, which also began at Republic Square.

Text on the banner: “The freedom of Georgians is at “All Risks”.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 1:45 PM

Again, I cannot stress enough how big a deal it is for all of these ethnic minority communities coming together to protest the Georgian Dream, the oligarch that owns the Georgian Dream, and Russia’s attempt to take over Georgia through the Georgian Dream.

The President and the opposition are currently working on various aspects of holding the new, free and fair elections – after the regime either compromises or breaks, the two scenarios the President has outlined. #GeorgiaProtests #NewElectionsforGeorgia

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 1:58 PM

Please note all the cars honking in solidarity with this solo protester. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 12:51 PM

Protests continue in Batumi – citizens gather here every day demanding new elections and the release of those detained during the protests.

#GeorgiaProtests Day 28

📷Roin Gundadze

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 12:30 PM

The Gulf of Finland:

Cook Island flag oil tanker Eagle S lost 25% of her speed minutes before she crossed the broken cable Estlink2. She crossed at 10:26Z, ie the time of cable fault.

She proceeded at affected speed til she reached shallow waters, where she lost all momentum. After some maneuvers she regained speed.

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— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 12:23 PM

Cables saboteur suspect EAGLE S stopped in international waters 4 hours ago.

2 hours ago she started proceeding slowly north and is now firmly in Finnish territory.

I find it probable she has been arrested by Finnish navy (usually less visible on AIS).

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— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 2:42 PM

Cook Island oil tanker EAGLE S is almost certainly arrested as a prime suspect in todays breakdown of 658 MW connector Estlink2

Finland Coast Guard patrol ship Turva just turned on AIS. The two vessels are stationary on Finnish territory. Turva was also very involved in Yi Peng 3-case a month ago

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— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 3:03 PM

If Estlink2 i destroyed it comes in very timely. Baltic states are in the final preparations to desynchronize from Russian grid and enter the western system.

energy.ec.europa.eu/news/estonia…

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— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 3:33 PM

bsky.app/profile/auon…

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— auonsson (@auonsson.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 4:03 PM

Eagle S is also an old and very well known vessel from Russias shadow fleet. Its owners are virtually unknown. An independent inspection in Skaw a few months back showed more than 20 faults, some critical, yet it’s continued to transport Russian oil. It’s an interesting candidate for the sabotage.

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— Jakob Kjøgx Bohr (@jakobbohr.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 4:06 PM

These ships are everywhere in Europe now. Strictly transporting Russian goods, while they officially have no known owners, no real operators, no known insurance – and in the end no one to blame. And according to several defense analysts, they’re the perfect weapon for hybrid warfare.

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— Jakob Kjøgx Bohr (@jakobbohr.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 4:14 PM

Eventually someone might recognize that we’re in a world war.

Kazakhstan:

⚡️Azerbaijani Airlines plane en route to Russia crashes in western Kazakhstan.

A plane carrying 67 people from Baku, Azerbaijan to Grozny in Russia’s Chechen Republic crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on Dec. 25, Tengrinews media outlet reported.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 25, 2024 at 4:13 AM

At least 28 people are believed to have survived, the Kazakh Emergency Situations Ministry said. The number of casualties has not been reported.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 25, 2024 at 4:13 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

A plane carrying 67 people from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Russia’s Chechen Republic crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on Dec. 25, Tengrinews media outlet reported.

According to Kazakhstan’s Transport Ministry, the plane operated by Azerbaijan Airlines had 37 Azerbaijani passengers, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz, along with five crew members on board.

At least 28 people are believed to have survived, the Kazakh Emergency Situations Ministry said. The number of casualties has not been reported.

Russia’s Federal Agency for Air Transport (Rosaviatsiya) reported that, according to preliminary data, the plane collided with a flock of birds and the pilot decided to land at the Aktau airfield, after which the aircraft “hit the ground.”

Search and rescue operations at the site are ongoing.

Meduza is reporting that the plane was brought down by Russian air defense.

A passenger jet crashed en route to Russia’s North Caucasus region. Original reports said the cause was a bird strike, but mounting evidence suggests Russian air defenses shot it down by accident. Meduza investigates.

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— Meduza in English (@meduza.io) December 25, 2024 at 2:18 PM

Here are the details:

On December 25, 2024, a few hours after an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer passenger jet crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, an anonymous Russian blogger, who is connected to Russia’s Air Forces and goes by the username Fighterbomber, posted important video evidence of the crash site on his Telegram channel.

On December 25, 2024, a few hours after an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer passenger jet crashed in Aktau, Kazakhstan, an anonymous Russian blogger, who is connected to Russia’s Air Forces and goes by the username Fighterbomber, posted important video evidence of the crash site on his Telegram channel.

So, it was a missile strike?

It’s certainly hard to interpret the video from the crash site any other way.

  • The footage clearly shows evidence of a large anti-aircraft missile strike on the plane’s tail section.
  • Ample photo and video evidence exists of the wreckage of other military and civilian aircraft shot down by anti-aircraft missiles. It tends to show similar holes in the skin of shot down planes.
  • Some passengers who survived the crash also reported large fragments hitting the Embraer jet from the outside. Footage from inside the Embraer’s cabin soon also appeared online. It shows the cabin becoming depressurized, holes in the seats (possibly from shrapnel), and passengers asking if anyone has bandages to treat the wounded.

It is impossible to determine what type of ammunition may have struck the plane solely based on the shape of the holes it left. That requires finding remnants of whatever hit the plane.

It is also difficult to say with certainty who owned the weapons that struck the Embraer jet. What we do know for sure is that on the morning of December 25, Russian air defenses repelled an attack by Ukrainian drones in the Embraer’s landing zone.

More at the link including video and imagery, much of which is below thanks to the Special Kherson Cat.

❗️/1. Russian air defense most likely caused the crash of an Embraer 190 passenger plane during UAV attack on Chechnya:

An Embraer 190 passenger plane belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines crashed this morning. 67 passengers of which 5 crew members were on board. 32 people survived the crash. 🧵

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 11:26 AM

/3. Just as the plane was approaching Grozny, an air raid alert was issued in the region due to a kamikaze drone attack. And Russian air defense was actively engaged.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 11:28 AM

/4. The tail section of the plane survived the crash and witnesses were able to capture on videos damage on the tail that is typical of fragments from air defense missiles.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 11:30 AM

/5. Some passengers have already managed to give short testimonies and comment on what happened. Thus, Zaur Mamedov, one of the survivors of the plane crash, says:

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 11:31 AM

Kherson:

Interception of one of the Russian cruise missiles over the Kherson region. During the Christmas night’s massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine. t.me/kpszsu/25655

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 1:57 PM

Pokrovsk:

Photo of “Christmas” Pokrovsk, from which the Russians is now only 6 km away. There are almost no people, FPV drones are flying, and explosions are echoing.
t.me/c/1154166453…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 11:32 AM

Kharkiv:

Imagine Christmas morning: your loved ones hiding from drones, missiles raining down, silence after every explosion a gamble between hope and grief. This is Ukraine. This is Kharkiv. This is my family. This is the life I hate. And the blood-soaked name behind it is russia.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 3:43 AM

Russian missile attack on Kharkiv this morning ‼️

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 7:59 AM

This was someone’s home on Kharkiv. Russia destroyed it this Christmas morning.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 6:40 AM

The moment of the Russian Christmas night attack on Kharkiv.

The Russians fired at least 12 missiles at the city.

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— Kyiv Post (@kyivpost.com) December 25, 2024 at 8:19 AM

Russia struck Kharkiv with 12 missiles, damaging both heating and energy infrastructure. This Christmas, much of the city is without heat, the mayor reported. No glowing tree, no warmth, no light — just war.
📹by art.malon

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 4:15 AM

Footage of a successful clearing operation in a forest strip and the capture of an entire enemy group in Kharkiv region. The positions of the Russians were hit by tank crews of the brigade, and the infantry finished the job.
t.me/+cWWdmTRjmyk…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 9:03 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

⚡️Ukraine hits Russian naval infantry brigade command post in Kursk Oblast, military claims.

Ukrainian troops hit the command post of the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade in the town of Lgov in Russia’s Kursk Oblast overnight on Dec. 25, Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications reported.

[image or embed]

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 25, 2024 at 6:30 AM

The Russian command post was located in an abandoned civilian building, the military claimed.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 25, 2024 at 6:30 AM

A HIMARS missile strike hit Lgov in Russia’s Kursk region hours ago, with Russian sources alleging a civilian facility was struck. Ukrainian sources claim it targeted the 810th Marine Brigade’s command post, causing major Russian officer losses.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 5:20 AM

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian troops hit the command post of the 810th Guards Naval Infantry Brigade in the town of Lgov in Russia’s Kursk Oblast overnight on Dec. 25, Ukraine’s Center for Strategic Communications reported.

The Russian command post was located in an abandoned civilian building, the military claimed.

“This fire strike is part of a comprehensive campaign to weaken the ability of the Russian Armed Forces to coordinate military operations against the people of Ukraine,” the statement read.

According to Kursk Oblast acting governor, Alexander Khinshtein, Ukraine attacked civilian facilities and infrastructure in Lgov, killing four people and injuring five others.

Russian Telegram channels shared videos purporting to show a damaged high-rise building and cars.

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

More at the link.

Rostov Oblast, Russia:

💥SBU drones destroyed an ammunition depot at the Kadamovskoye training ground in Russia’s Rostov region, a key supply point for troops in the Kramatorsk sector. The depot’s destruction has caused severe logistical challenges for Russian forces, impacting their combat operations.
t.me/c/1194762769…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 25, 2024 at 7:24 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian long-range drones attacked an ammunition depot at the Kadamovsky military training ground in Russia’s Rostov Oblast in recent days, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent on Dec. 25.

The Kadamovsky training ground, located near the town of Novocherkassk in Rostov Oblast, is one of the largest in Russia.  According to the source, the ammunition depot was completely destroyed by drones operated by the SBU.

“It was used by the enemy to supply its troops in the Kramatorsk sector (in Donetsk Oblast),” the source said.

“Now the Russians have significant logistical difficulties, which significantly affect their ability to conduct combat operations.”

The Kyiv Independent could not verify these claims.

This is the latest of several other attacks on Rostov Oblast reported over the past week.

More at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Христос народився!✨ Сподіваюся, ви проводите це Різдво з тими, кого любите. А якщо ні — то нехай наступного року все буде саме так. Я написав пісню про любов, дружбу і…вареники. Щоправда, останнє довелося вирізати, але в цілому пісня вийшла гарна, різдвяна. Співаємо її разом із Томом нашими голосами з мультфільму. Заходьте на YouTube — подивіться!💫🤲🏻

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Christ was born! ✨ I hope you spend this Christmas with the ones you love. And if not, then let everything be just like that next year. I wrote a song about love, friendship and…dumplings True, the last one had to be cut, but in general the song turned out to be good, Christmas. We sing it with Tom in our cartoon voices. Go to YouTube – watch it!💫🤲🏻

And here’s the full video from Patron’s YouTube channel:

Happy Hannukah to those who observe and celebrate the Jewish Festival of Lights.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,036: Putin and the Russians Deliver a Bitter Present to Ukraine on Christmas DayPost + Comments (11)

Another Xmas Thread

by @heymistermix.com|  December 25, 20247:46 pm| 50 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Anne Laurie is working on something so I’ll just put this up for now since you’ve all been neglected.  Merry Christmas to all who celebrate, Happy Hanukkah to those who celebrate, and good evening to the rest of you.

Another Xmas ThreadPost + Comments (50)

Christmas Tree Masterclass

by Rose Judson|  December 25, 202411:53 am| 63 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Back in the 90s my parents sold the B&B they’d been running for a decade and bought a nearby house with a very high-ceilinged living room. I remember them showing us the place before we moved in (I was about 12 at the time), and my Dad remarked, “you could put a hell of a Christmas tree in here.”

Well, he’s made good on that over the years. Here’s this year’s edition, which is over 13 feet high, I’m told.

Christmas Tree Masterclass

Obviously, a tree of this size requires structural support even if, like my parents, you don’t happen to have a resident cat at the moment.

show full post on front page

This is what that looks like (pictured are my brother, in Clemson University orange, and my dad, in sensible rural-white-guy flannel):

Christmas Tree Masterclass 1

Basically they have eye-hooks screwed into the wooden sills of the large window and the loft area, and they run cables through those hooks to hold the top of the tree. The stand is also some kind of heavy-duty thing which they screw to a large piece of heavy plywood to act as a base. It’s ridiculous and a lot of faff and complicated, but it’s also absolutely magical.

The decorating takes all day on Christmas Eve, and taking out the ornaments is like walking through family history every year. There are ornaments from both sets of grandparents, little lace snowflakes tatted by a great-great aunt who was a nun, and (my personal favourite) my younger sister C’s first driver’s license, which features a picture so terrible we all laugh ourselves sick over it whenever it comes out of storage.

C. has asked me not to share that here, but she has given me permission to post this photo of her ChristmAss:

Christmas Tree Masterclass 2

That donkey is far too dignified for that hat.

Merry Christmas to all Jackals who celebrate!

Christmas Tree MasterclassPost + Comments (63)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Christmas Day

by Anne Laurie|  December 25, 20247:18 am| 222 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

A huge barred owl flew down a Virginia family’s chimney, knocked over the star on top of their Christmas tree, and perched himself on top www.wusa9.com/article/life…

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— Phil Lewis (@phillewis.bsky.social) December 21, 2024 at 4:14 PM

Per the local paper (Washington Post):

… It descended into a home in Arlington, Virginia, on Wednesday evening, first sitting on a highchair, then the kitchen cabinets, before pushing aside a gold star on the tree and claiming the top spot.

The Burgoyne family, who live in the Donaldson Run neighborhood, called the Animal Welfare League of Arlington. Spencer Murray, a sergeant with Animal Control, reported for duty. (One can only hope he said: “Owl do it!”)…

Savannah Burgoyne said she heard a sound coming from her chimney earlier that day. She checked with a flashlight but found nothing. Later, she heard her family’s Bernedoodle, Luna, bark and run around. Burgoyne dashed downstairs to see the owl perched on her daughter’s highchair. She called her husband, Jason, who called the Welfare League…

The Welfare League also hopes the tale serves as a friendly reminder to keep chimneys capped to ensure no feathered or furry friends sneak down to escape the cold…

After turning off the lights and opening the doors failed to encourage the Burgoyne’s tree topper to fly outside, Murray safely scooped up the owl with a net when it flew low enough.

Then he took the owl outside and watched it soar away, into the dark of night, not unlike Santa’s sleigh.

May our nation be blessed with the peace and light of the holiday season.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. pic.twitter.com/C1gBvivNKU

— President Biden (@POTUS) December 24, 2024

Science Christmas pic.twitter.com/ZYcG8Jrf5B

— Science (@ScienceGuys_) December 25, 2024

December 25, 1924: 100 years ago, Rod Serling is born.

As he put it: “I was a Christmas present that was delivered unwrapped.”

Lois Nettleton (“The Midnight Sun”) called him “a lovely gift to the world,” and who could disagree?

A toast to all on the centennial of Rod’s birth! pic.twitter.com/dCNR0FVVjU

— The Twilight Zone (@TheNightGallery) December 25, 2024



Ho! Ho! Ho!

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Christmas Day

(Clay Jones via GoComics.com)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Christmas DayPost + Comments (222)

Tuesday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  December 24, 20249:18 pm| 125 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Merry Christmas Eve, Y’all!

Actually, what is something like “y’all” but said only in this region of the country? I’d like to pick it up and add it to my vocabulary so I can piss off all the people at the general store in Bethany when I get back acting like I’m all cowboy and shit.

I had a weird interaction today. I was at the pharmacy picking something up for Joelle. I picked my stuff up, walked out, and as I was alking to the Honda saw some older guy- late 60’s early 70’s guy in an escalade pull into the spot on my passenger side, but like 6″ away. He sat there for a moment, and as I was starting to get into the driver’s seat, he started opening his door into mine. I yelled “Hey” and he kept doing it so I blurted out “Are you mental have you taken leave of your senses.” He yelled “FUCK YOU” and I said “You’re the fucking one smashing into my door.”

At that point his wife started screaming at him to stop being such an asshole and I just sat there. I couldn’t even do anything to get away because he would have raked the entire side of my car with his door if I tried to reverse, so I yelled “Just fucking stop so I could leave.” He did, I reversed, and he got out, and as I was driving away he yelled “Fuck you.”

So that is the kind of energy Arizonans were putting out today. I swear to god this shit only happens to me, I feel like fucking Larry David but without being an instigator.

There was also big cat energy today. I had to go to three different groceries to get the stuff I needed and the oddly specific list of things Joelle wanted, and the first place, Sprouts, I walked in and this big mexican man behind the deli counter yelled “HEY CAT DADDY” and his coworker started saying how awesome the shirt was. Then an older woman by the produce there. And this happened several times in Frye’s and then Trader Joe’s. It’s the weirdest god damned thing. I have worn this shirt dozens of times and only every now and then does someone comment.

I thought about it a while and then I think I decided that all the cat people finally are done procrastinating preparing for Christmas because they are out of time and are forced to be in grocery stores, so I was just shopping at peak cat person time. If you have any other ideas let me know.

Oh, another funny encounter- at Sprouts I was in the herb section and the guy in front of me was getting chives, rosemary, thyme, and sage, and had 2lbs of butter in his car, and I said “Standing rib” and he laughed and said yeah and then the guy behind me said “Me too.” I said “don’t forget the horseradish” and walked off. It was a very pleasant and extremely dude interaction.

I’m not gonna talk about politics because fuck it we are old, it’s the holidays, we don’t know how many we have left, so fuck it. Shit will still be standing on 2 January.

Trimmed up the bone in, put my butter rub on it, and have it wrapped in aluminum foil for overnight. I will take it out and let it get to room temp. We’re also going to have some smashed new potatoes, peas, and a nice salad. Joelle is feeling much better than yesterday, so that is good, and it made everything easier. She spent a good bit of time icing on the couch cackling at the inappropriate parts, which is to say all of them, of Bad Santa. Also gave the dogs and cats a real treat with some Evanger’s ground rabbit and I could down some of the fat from the back of the prime rib and gave it to them.

You all have a good night. We’re gonna go watch some more of the worst people on earth with the last couple episodes of Yellowstone.

DON’T FORGET YOUR PETS OF BALLOON JUICE CALENDARS!

Tuesday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (125)

War for Ukraine Day 1,035: The Third Ukrainian Christmas Eve of Russia’s Genocidal Reinvasion

by Adam L Silverman|  December 24, 20248:47 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A screen grab of NEIVANMADE's Christmas 2023 art. It shows Joseph and Mary standing over the baby Jesus in a crib/manger. All have Orthodox style halos. The sky behind them is a dark blue and there is a golden thatched roof over them. To the left of the top of the roof's center a star/comet is visible.

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

As Christmas Eve gives way to Christmas Day in Ukraine – 7:38 PM EST/2:38 AM local time in Ukraine – over 1/2 of Ukraine is under air raid alert and Russian Air Force strike fighters and bombers are up over western Russia. The Ukrainians are facing drone storms, rockets, and missiles as a Christmas present from the genocidal Putin.

Air raid alert map of Ukraine. All of eastern, northern, and most of central Ukraine are under air raid alert/shaded red on the map. Russian fighters and bombers are aloft over western Russia.

This is after the Russians bombarded Kryvyi Rih earlier today:

On Christmas Eve, russia launched a missile that destroyed a four-story building in Kryvyi Rih.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 9:28 AM

Fireworks burst beyond my window, their festive clamor scraping old wounds. In Ukraine, carols are drowned by explosions. This photo from Kryvyi Rih shows a Christmas tree under ruins. The world wraps itself in tinsel and cheer. I sit in its shadow, waiting for a miracle.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 1:39 PM

Christmas eve when your neighbor is genocidal russia

(Kryvyi Rih today, after the russian missile attack on the city, that injured at least 11 people, including a 16 years old girl)

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 10:55 AM

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Russia attacked a residential building in the city of Kryvyi Rih in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast on Christmas Eve, Dec. 24, injuring at least 15 people, Governor Serhii Lysak said.

One person was killed, according to the governor.

Preliminary reports say that a Russian ballistic missile hit a four-story apartment building in the city, according to Mayor Oleksandr Vilkul.

“Unfortunately, we’re preparing for difficult news,” Vilkul said in a statement.

Two people were rescued from under the rubble. Ten of the injured victims were hospitalized after the attack. Four of them — a 78-year-old man and three women aged 72, 65, and 42 — are in serious condition, Lysak reported.

Ukrainian officials condemned the missile attack, which targeted a residential neighborhood during the holidays.

“While the rest of the world celebrates Christmas, Ukrainians continue to suffer from endless Russian attacks. Terrorists do not understand human morality,” said Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.

Andrii Yermak, the head of President’s Office, addressed the Kryvyi Rih attack on his official Telegram channel.

“Russians are murderers. Nothing sacred, no humanity,” he said.

Emergency services are still working at the scene of the attack, officials said.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Christmas Greetings from the President of Ukraine

24 December 2024 – 17:00

This is the sound of light. This is the sound of a miracle. This is the sound of life. This is the sound of Christmas. Our “Shchedryk.” Our Leontovych. Our history, which carries especially profound symbolism in times of war.

The great Ukrainian composer Mykola Leontovych spent several years living and working in the city now known as Pokrovsk. There, he taught music to children, formed a choir, and it was in that very place that he composed the second edition of “Shchedryk,” which is heard in every corner of the world these days. This is how a Ukrainian gifted the world the musical spirit of Christmas.

And may everyone in the world remember Ukraine when they hear it. The way we are fighting today for the main symbol of this holiday – for hope and for the triumph of life. On our land, in every city and town, including Pokrovsk.

The divine music composed there and the evil that russia brought there sharply illustrate the difference between us and them.

We strive to create, while for some, the meaning of life is to sow death. We seek harmony, seek justice – we want peace.

All we need is to live peacefully on our own land, to see the sun, our sky, and in it – a Christmas star, not Iranian Shaheds and russian missiles. But for some, life feels “boring and lacks excitement.” These words are proof of how far they are from God, from Christianity, and from true faith. And this is proof of why their bondage and darkness will lose. We know this. The world knows this.

And God knows this. Evil will be defeated. Ukrainians believe this and pray for it – pray for all this evil and filth to vanish from our land forever. And Ukrainians undoubtedly deserve it.

Dear nation!

Tonight is a very special evening. Christmas Eve.

And this is our third Christmas during wartime. Our great Ukrainian family cannot fully celebrate it the way we would like to, the way it should be celebrated.

Not all of us are home, unfortunately. Sadly, not everyone has a home. And tragically, not everyone is with us. Yet, despite all the hardships brought by the enemy, they have failed to take or destroy what matters most – our hearts, the light within us, our faith in goodness and mercy, and the humanity that lives in each of us.

We have not lost our values, and that is why today we honor all those who gave their lives defending us. We pray today for everyone on the frontlines – to return alive. For all those in captivity – to come back home. For all those russia has driven into occupation. For all those it has forced to leave. For all those who face hardships but have not lost Ukraine within themselves – and because of that, Ukraine will never lose them.

That is why, no matter where we are today, we are definitely together. For the second time, we celebrate Christmas on the same date as one big family, one country. For the second time in modern history, Christmas unites all Ukrainians. Today we are side by side. And we will not get lost. Whether in person or in our minds, we will greet each other, call our parents, kiss our children, hug our loved ones, and remember those close to us. In person, from afar, or in our hearts – Ukrainians are together today. And as long as we do this, evil has no chance. This unity and warmth toward one another are the true spirit of Christmas – the unique atmosphere that we will preserve within ourselves and share with those around us. With everyone we love. With everyone who is so dear to us.

And today, that means every Ukrainian.

Merry Christmas to all of you!

May the light of faith shine in our souls, may our hearts be filled with hope, and may every home be blessed with love and abundance. May the Lord protect you, your families, and our Ukraine.

With His help, may all the evil that entered our home disappear, replaced by goodness and justice. May there be peace and prosperity.

And may every child be healthy, delight in their gifts, smile, and – despite everything – feel the joy of this holiday. And may the most precious thing – the sparkle of happiness in children’s eyes – be seen.

This is what we are fighting for.

This is what we are praying for.

This is what we deserve.

Merry Christmas, dear Ukrainians!

Christ is born!

Glorify Him!

Shchedryk by Mykola Leontovych performed by the Ukrainian School “Mriya” at the Singing Christmas Tree in Zurich Switzerland 🎄

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— Sofia (@sofiaukraini.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 2:22 AM

The cost:

⚡️Deported Ukrainian teen allegedly commits suicide in Russia.

Ukrainian-born Oleksandr Yakushchenko, 18, who was deported from the Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast in 2022, was found dead after allegedly committing suicide on Jan. 10, 2024 near his foster home in Russia.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 24, 2024 at 1:12 PM

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Ukrainian-born Oleksandr Yakushchenko, 18, who was deported from the Russian-occupied Kherson Oblast in 2022, was found dead after allegedly committing suicide on Jan. 10, 2024 near his foster home in Russia.

His suicide almost a year ago was first reported by IStories investigative project on Dec. 24. There were no reports about investigations into Yakushchenko’s Russian foster family, where at least one other Ukrainian boy currently lives.

According to IStories, before the full-scale Russian invasion in 2022, Yakushchenko lived in a family-type orphanage in the village of Tokarivka near Kherson, run by Lidia Sharvarly.

After the occupation of the village early into the invasion, Sharvarly became a collaborator with the Russian authorities. When the Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated Kherson in November 2022, she fled to Russia, illegally taking several children with her.

Yakushchenko was among at least 20,000 Ukrainian children that have been abducted from Russian-occupied territories and sent to other Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine or to Russia itself, according to a Ukrainian national database “Children of War.”

In Russia, Sharvarly refused custody of children, and Yakushchenko was placed in a Russian foster family of Natalia and Alexander Lukashenko in Krasnodar Krai.

Eight months later, he committed suicide.

More at the link.

Georgia:

#GeorgianProtests

Day 27

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 2:12 PM

Day 27. December 24. New elections and the release of the unlawfully detained. #GeorgiaProtests #NewElectionsforGeorgia
📷 Lado Nafetvaridze

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 3:13 PM

On December 28, marking one month since the start of the pro-European protests, a one-hour protest chain will take place in Tbilisi, Kutaisi, Batumi, Akhmeta, Gori, and Khashuri.

Citizens will join the “Chain of Unity for Georgia” starting at 3 PM.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 7:40 AM

On December 25, 19:00, ethnic minorities of Georgia will be marching from the First Republic Square in a “Unity March.” #NewElectionsforGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 3:59 PM

Today the regime met with business representatives and it seems like they promised to release the prisoners before the New Year’s.
I’m of course very happy if true, but this will be their tactical, temporary concession before the final assault. I thin people do see it though.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) December 23, 2024 at 4:45 PM

Kyiv:

Merry Christmas, dear world.

Come to Kyiv for the winter holidays at some point; you will not regret it.

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 5:41 PM

Lviv:

Grief and hope march the same street in Lviv, half an hour apart — silent processions for the fallen, carols for the living. A nation that mourns deeply, yet dares to sing.
📷Lviv’s Mayor Andrii Sadovyi

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 10:27 AM

Kharkiv:

Kolyadky (Christmas songs) on the streets of frontline Kharkiv.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 2:18 PM

Both banks of the Dnipro River:

⚡️Russia trying to seize bridgehead on west bank of Dnipro, but no talk of storming Kherson, military says.

From the new foothold, Russian forces could fire on Kherson and the Ukrainian military units located in the coastal zone on the western bank of the Dnipro.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) December 24, 2024 at 8:12 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian troops are likely seeking to seize a bridgehead on the western bank of the Dnipro River or one of its islands in order to transfer firepower there, Vladyslav Voloshyn, the spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s Southern Command, told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on Dec. 24.

Voloshyn’s statement comes amid an anticipated large-scale Russian advance in Kherson Oblast. In early December, Russian troops were carrying out assaults in the southern region to gain a foothold on islands in the Dnipro River delta.

From the new foothold, Russian forces could fire on Kherson and the Ukrainian military units located in the coastal zone on the western bank of the Dnipro, Voloshyn said.

Russian forces conduct five to seven assaults by small infantry groups in this area of the front line every day to “detect weaknesses in Ukrainian defense,” according to the official.

“The enemy has launched similar assaults on Kozatsky Island, and for several days in a row, they (Russian forces) have been trying to land on Velykyi Potemkin Island, and before that, they tried to land on the southern island of Zabych,” Voloshyn said, adding that Russia also carried out similar assaults near the Antonivskyi bridges two weeks ago.

These efforts are not an attempt to make “a big assault or force the Dnipro River,” the spokesman said.

“Such (small) groups do not do this. Much larger forces do this, but it is very difficult to hide them with modern intelligence means,” he added.

Even if the information about a possible Russian offensive on Kherson turns out to be true, “it will be fatal for the Russian forces,” Oleksandr Tolokonnikov, head of the internal and information policy department of the Kherson Regional Military Administration, told the media.

Meanwhile, if the military warns of such a danger, the local authorities are ready to announce additional evacuations from the city and its neighborhoods, the official said.

More at the link.

Donestk Oblast:

Russian Su-25 collided with Russian Zala reconnaissance drone in flight:

“While performing a combat mission in the territory of Donetsk region, the Su-25 collided with a Russian reconnaissance UAV “ZALA”. As a result, the nose section was damaged.”

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 8:24 AM

Vremivka:

🔥The Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a column of Russian armored vehicles during an attempted assault on the Vremivka direction.
t.me/c/1377735387…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 8:12 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays 🎁 from the Hachiko team in Ukraine! Some photos from Christmas Eve food deliveries to displaced pets on the frontline:

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) December 24, 2024 at 2:12 PM

A very merry Christmas to all of you who observe and celebrate the holiday.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,035: The Third Ukrainian Christmas Eve of Russia’s Genocidal ReinvasionPost + Comments (16)

Space Science Open Thread: Mars, Beyotches!

by Anne Laurie|  December 24, 20247:09 pm| 87 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Grifters Gonna Grift, Space

The position of every Dem should be that NASA will spend $0 on crewed spaceflight. Flights, training, R&D, all of it. It's a waste, we have a deficit, we should spend on cops, blah blah blah whatever.
Republicans have no choice but to throw money at it now, and will trade to ensure that happens.

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— Max Kennerly (@maxkennerly.bsky.social) December 21, 2024 at 7:30 PM

Rich guys with big fantasies:

… Isaacman made headlines earlier this year when he became the first private astronaut to conduct a spacewalk. The five-day mission took place using a capsule built by Elon Musk’s company SpaceX. During the flight, Isaacman and SpaceX engineer Sarah Gillis donned space suits supplied by the company and floated briefly outside the capsule…

Isaacman is a friend of Musk, and his online payment company, Shift 4, has extensive financial ties to SpaceX. According to financial disclosure documents, Shift 4 had invested $27.5 million dollars in SpaceX as of 2021. That same year, Shift4 announced a five-year partnership that would make it the payment platform for Starlink, the satellite internet service run by SpaceX.

If confirmed as NASA administrator, Isaacman would oversee billions of dollars in contracts that the government has awarded to SpaceX. He would also be in a position to funnel more money to Musk’s company…

In fact, in previous posts on Musk’s social media platform X, Isaacman appears to have shown a strong preference for SpaceX. He has supported allowing SpaceX to increase its launches out of California, after lawmakers there voted to restrict its flights from Vandenberg Air Force Base. He’s also been critical of NASA’s Space Launch System (SLS) to carry astronauts to the moon, as well as the agency’s decision to award a lunar landing contract to Blue Origin, the spaceflight company of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos. The Blue Origin award came after NASA gave a multi-billion dollar contract to SpaceX for the same mission…

Farrar says Isaacman would not immediately be able to restructure NASA’s large programs, such as its Artemis mission to deliver astronauts to the moon. That’s because many aspects of those programs are dictated by Congress, which sets the budget for the space agency. “The real question for NASA is whether Congress will permit it to abandon legacy projects like SLS so the budget can be redirected to SpaceX,” he says…

Back during the first Gilded Age, plutocrats started the trend of buying themselves vast Western dude ranches (frequently using government dollars), where they could live out their manly Cowboy & Indian dreams. That’s still popular, of course, but Space, beyotches! has both a technocratic sheen and the imagined advantage of becoming an actual God-Emperor in a whole new realm. Especially for a soutpiel like Elon Musk, who’s been steeped since birth in the idea that when the going gets tough, the privileged elite skip out…

One thing I find interesting about Musk's descent into politics is that he's destroying his Mars plans. Even if heavy rocket launches were free, putting people on Mars requires a decade or more of grinding near Earth to develop life support capabilities that simply don't exist.

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) December 20, 2024

Like it or not, the agency that has the institutional knowledge on life support, deep space tracking, and a dozen other technologies needed for Mars is NASA. Not to mention that for reasons of practical politics, a half-trillion dollar Mars landing has to be a national project

The irreducible length (~two years) of a Mars mission is so far out of our experience that it frontloads any landing attempt with multiple two-year testing cycles in far Earth orbit, to work out the life support bugs. There’s just no way around this grind as a prerequisite.

That means that to go to Mars, you have to sustain the support of Congress for a decade or more, as parties come in and out of power. Old Elon was on track to achieve this, his pose was disdaining politics in favor of a good old wailing electric guitar American can-do spirit

He had the cultural capital, the money, and a promising rocket program that put him on track to realizing the Martian dream, and he gave that up to become an ideologue in an administration where such influence has historically had a short shelf life. Talk about a mind virus!

show full post on front page

By transforming himself into a hyperpartisan political figure, Musk has made sure that he can’t realize his stated dream of Mars colonization—he can’t even do a Mars landing—because the only way multi-decade megaprojects get done in US politics is by slow institutional capture.

You have to remember that even three years ago, Musk was a politically unaligned memelord whose real passion was robot cars, supertunnels, a kind of techno-optimism rooted in American greatness, exceptionalism, and ability to build shit. And he threw that valuable clout away.

It's not just a money question; you need a long near Earth research program which necessarily means launch permits, and for going to Mars in particular you need enough political clout to ignore COSPAR rules on planetary protection, a matter of international treaty.

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) December 20, 2024

My point is if Mars became a national priority tonight, it would take 15-20 years to get to the landing, with no way to shorten the process. That's a long time to rely on Trump and his political successors to stay in power, and keep liking you.

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) December 20, 2024

For those interested, I wrote the start of a rant last year about what actually makes going to Mars difficult, and why it's a terrible idea to boot. https://t.co/Q8oD7otgqn

— Pinboard (@Pinboard) December 20, 2024

Something to argue about while we’re waiting for the goodies to finish baking, or the (grand)kids to drop off to sleep:

The goal of this essay is to persuade you that we shouldn’t send human beings to Mars, at least not anytime soon. Landing on Mars with existing technology would be a destructive, wasteful stunt whose only legacy would be to ruin the greatest natural history experiment in the Solar System. It would no more open a new era of spaceflight than a Phoenician sailor crossing the Atlantic in 500 B.C. would have opened up the New World. And it wouldn’t even be that much fun.

The buildup to Mars would not look like Apollo, but a long series of ISS-like flights to nowhere. If your main complaint about the International Space Station is that it’s too exciting and has a distracting view of Earth out the window, then you’ll love watching ISS Jr. drift around doing bone studies in deep space. But if you think rockets, adventure, exploration, and discovery are more fun than counting tumors in mice, then the slow and timorous Mars program will only break your heart.

Sticking a flag in the Martian dust would cost something north of half a trillion dollars, with no realistic prospect of landing before 2050. To borrow a quote from John Young, keeping such a program funded through fifteen consecutive Congresses would require a series “of continuous miracles, interspersed with acts of God”. Like the Space Shuttle and Space Station before it, the Mars program would exist in a state of permanent redesign by budget committee until any logic or sense in the original proposal had been wrung out of it.

When the great moment finally came, and the astronauts had taken their first Martian selfie, strict mission rules meant to prevent contamination and minimize risk would leave the crew dependent on the same robots they’d been sent at enormous cost to replace. Only the microbes that lived in the spacecraft, uninformed of the mission rules, would be free to go wander outside. They would become the real explorers of Mars, and if their luck held, its first colonists.

How long such a program could last is anyone’s guess. But if landing on the Moon taught us anything, it’s that taxpayer enthusiasm for rock collecting has hard limits. At ~$100B per mission, and with launch windows to Mars one election cycle apart, NASA would be playing a form of programmatic Russian roulette. It’s hard to imagine landings going past the single digits before cost or an accident shut the program down. And once the rockets had retired to their museums, humanity would have nothing to show for its Mars adventure except some rocks and a bunch of unspeakably angry astrobiologists. It would in every way be the opposite of exploration…

Space Science Open Thread: <em> Mars, Beyotches!</em>Post + Comments (87)

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