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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Democracy is not a spectator sport.

Come on, media. you have one job. start doing it.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

Welcome to day five of every-bit-as-bad-as-you-thought-it-would-be.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

“Jesus paying for the sins of everyone is an insult to those who paid for their own sins.”

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

You cannot shame the shameless.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Sadly, there is no cure for stupid.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Oppose, oppose, oppose. do not congratulate. this is not business as usual.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Late Night Kremlinology Open Thread (For Entertainment Purposes Only)

by Anne Laurie|  November 19, 20244:14 am| 91 Comments

This post is in: Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Russia, Trump Crime Cartel

Epshteyn wields enormous power and influence in Trumpworld. He’s survived a lot longer in it than Musk.

If it’s Musk v. Epshteyn, I wouldn’t underestimate the latter. https://t.co/sNnwKZ9NJ9

— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) November 18, 2024

The latter is Putin's proxy. He appears regularly on RT, has Russian roots and is fluent in Russian.

— Blank Slate (@blankslate2017) November 18, 2024

Thing about Kremlinology — fellow Olds will remember — is that it can be very difficult to parse out the difference between actual disagreements & kabuki theater intended to send a message, frequently to more than one audience. Per Axios:

… The friction between Musk and Boris Epshteyn — a top adviser who’s pushed for Cabinet picks that include Matt Gaetz for attorney general — surfaced in public last week. It signaled a rivalry stemming from Musk’s growing influence on the president-elect, to the dismay of some Trump loyalists.

* Musk — who fueled Trump’s election effort by giving at least $119 million — has questioned whether Epshteyn has had too much influence in Trump’s selections, especially his top Justice Department picks and the White House counsel, three people familiar with the conversations told Axios.

* At the same time, Musk has begun to push for his own Cabinet favorites.

* Epshteyn has bristled at Musk’s questioning the qualifications of Epshteyn’s favored candidates, two of the sources said.

Zoom in: Their rocky relationship came to a head last Wednesday during a heated discussion at a dinner table in front of other guests at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago club, three people familiar with the episode told Axios.

* At one point during what the sources described as a “massive blowup” and a “huge explosion,” Musk accused Epshteyn of leaking details of Trump’s transition — including personnel picks — to the media.

Zoom out: The rift between Musk and Epshteyn wasn’t a surprise to Trump senior staffers and confidants who’ve seen tensions between them bubble up during the transition meetings at Mar-a-Lago that began shortly after the Nov. 5 election….

 
Potential Easter egg, the NYTimes article referenced by Axios is a joint Maggie Haberman / Jonathan Swan piece on “The Trump Lawyer Who Wields Outsize Influence on the Next White House” [gift link]:

President-elect Donald J. Trump was flying to Washington for his first face-to-face meeting with President Biden since winning the election when a top aide offered a startling idea to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine.

The adviser, Boris Epshteyn, who coordinated the legal defenses in Mr. Trump’s criminal cases, suggested to the president-elect that he should be Mr. Trump’s special envoy for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, according to four people briefed on what took place.

show full post on front page

Mr. Epshteyn, who was born in Russia and lived there as a child, has no experience in foreign policy. He told the group that he had family on both sides of the conflict.

Several people on the plane appeared shocked at the idea of appointing Mr. Epshteyn to a sensitive diplomatic post, according to the people briefed on the matter. In addition to his lack of diplomatic experience, he is currently under indictment in Arizona along with several other Trump allies for their efforts to overturn the 2020 election with so-called fake electors. (A fifth person with knowledge of the events insisted people on the plane reacted well to the idea and suggested thoughts on how to structure such a move.)

But none of the people with knowledge of the incident disputed one key fact: The person on the plane who registered the least shock at the special envoy notion was the only person whose opinion ultimately matters. Mr. Trump listened with apparent interest and did not dismiss the proposal, even though he did not commit to it.

Whatever comes of Mr. Epshteyn’s idea, Mr. Trump has already given his adviser extraordinary power and shown a willingness to heed his counsel above that of others. Even the world’s richest man, Elon Musk, who has been in many transition meetings in the past week, has privately remarked at how surprised he is that Mr. Epshteyn has been granted so much authority…

 
Of course, Mr. ‘You’re Fired’ is known to delight in making subordinates via for his attention by battling each other, but one has to wonder just how serious this Epshteyn / Musk tiff ‘really’ is…

Boris’ fluent Russian helps when tattling to boss Putin. https://t.co/bcxPVerXhE

— BevMarie 🪷 (@evenbev) November 18, 2024

Late Night Kremlinology Open Thread (For Entertainment Purposes Only)Post + Comments (91)

Monday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  November 18, 20249:56 pm| 130 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Starting to feel a lot better and would even put myself at around 65-70%. Went to go get a recliner off facebook market today for 125 bucks, drove 45 minutes, and the fucker stood me up. I still need a seat besides the one at my computer desk that is comfortable. Joelle loves the couch, but I can last about ten minutes on it before things hurt. Getting old sucks.

Here’s a fun story– a pig was running wild in Washington state and they named it Notorious P.I.G.

Somewhat related, I have become infatuated with hairless cats and oriental short hairs, and if you are ok with giving all your information to the chicoms, there is a tiktok account of a hairless cat named Nudicras who I follow. Here is the instagram.

Can you still say chicom? It’s just short for chinese communist, right? Or is that going to get me canceled? Fuck it, cancel me. I’m ready for it. I’ll fuck off somewhere and drive a school bus or something.

I’m trying to find the right balance between the existential fear i have for this upcoming government with finding productive things to do about it while not sending everyone into a froth. But I think an early marker is if they can not find a way to block Gaetz and Hegseth, there ain’t no cavalry coming ever. No one is gonna stop them from doing shit. The only thing that might slow things down is if the stupidity tanks the economy so bad that the cost of living becomes so unpleasant that the half of the country in the klan will pass up on their favorite past times of telling everyone how christian they are while watching the government brutalize and terrorize the people they hate- the poor, the brown, the immigrant. And then we have to hope there are still Democrats willing to run in 2026.

So that’s where I am mentally and why I have been loathe to post here because I don’t want to be told I am being a doomsayer or that I am right. Both options fucking blow.

Monday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (130)

War for Ukraine Day 999: Rolling Blackouts Return & Odesa Is Again in the Crosshairs

by Adam L Silverman|  November 18, 20249:07 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing great. We went about 2/10ths of a mile farther this evening, her pace was much faster, and she was not dragging the last few tenths of a mile home. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations to help cover her chemo.

As a result of Russia’s targeting Ukraine’s power generation and transmission system, which is a war crime, rolling blackouts have returned to Ukraine.

For the first time in months, rolling power outages and the growl of countless power generators emanating from Kyiv’s streets are back, following Russia’s massive missile and drone attack against Ukraine on Sunday.

— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 11:38 AM

Power outages in Bucha, the third season, yay!

— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 11:15 AM

Russia also targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure in Odesa early today. This is also a war crime.

Ukraine’s Zelensky said Russia launched a “barbaric” missile attack on Odesa, killing 8 people. “Innocent lives were lost & many people were injured—lives that could have been saved if we had the capability to destroy Russian launch systems, supply chains, arsenals, & war factories at their source.”

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 7:28 AM

Odesa these minutes. Russian forces launched a ballistic missile, striking a residential area in the city.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 5:37 AM

There are a lot if videos and still images of the aftermath of the strike bouncing around online and on social media, many from official Ukrainian sources. They are very graphic. I have seen them, you do not need to look for them or see them.

Russia also opened up on Sumy only hours after the previous genocidal strikes on civilians and civilian targets there.

Hours after a missile strike on a residential building in Sumy killed 10 civilians, including two children, and injured more than 50 people, russian forces launched another attack on the city, targeting infrastructure and plunging it into darkness.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 17, 2024 at 6:08 PM

President Zelenskyy did a battlefield circulation to Kupyansk and Pokrovsk today, which is where he delivered his address. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

The Strength of Our Entire Ukrainian Army Is the People Who Serve Faithfully and Steadfastly – Address by the President

18 November 2024 – 17:50

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, I’m on the front line. Right now, in Kupyansk. Earlier, I was in Pokrovsk, visiting our brigades. I congratulated our men and women – our warriors – on Sergeant’s Day. Sergeants are the warriors without whom the effective work of officers and our units in general would be unimaginable. I am grateful to all sergeants who truly set an example for soldiers. The strength of our entire Ukrainian army is the people who serve – serve faithfully and steadfastly. Today, I had the honor of presenting state awards to the best of our warriors, those who have distinguished themselves in battle. I also received briefings from our commanders and updates on the security and social situation in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. We are holding our positions! Thank you, warriors!

Glory to Ukraine!

Here’s more about his visit to Kupyansk and Pokrovsk:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy Met with the Defenders of Kupyansk

18 November 2024 – 19:38

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the 14th separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Roman the Great to meet with the defenders of Kupyansk. He also held a meeting with Commander of the Starobilsk Operational-Tactical Group Serhiy Perets, Deputy Prime Minister for the Restoration of Ukraine – Minister for Communities and Territories Development Oleksiy Kuleba, and Head of Kharkiv Regional Military Administration Oleh Syniehubov.

The Head of State received a briefing from Serhiy Perets on the operational situation in the area of responsibility of his group, including details about the recent repulsion of a Russian attempt to break through to Kupyansk and the capture of many of the attackers.

The parties also thoroughly discussed the brigades’ needs for drones and various sources of supplying them, including state resources and those of the brigades themselves. Special attention was given to enhancing the brigades’ capabilities in terms of drones and electronic warfare.

Additionally, the discussions covered the provision of heating and electricity to certain areas of the Kharkiv region, the evacuation of people, and the defense of the region against Russian guided aerial bombs.

The President spoke with the commander of the brigade, Yaroslav Sydorov, and the warriors of the 14th separate mechanized brigade named after Prince Roman the Great. He also honored the best sergeants from the Starobilsk Operational-Tactical Group with state awards, presenting defenders with the Orders “For Courage”, II-III class.

“I want to congratulate you on Sergeant’s Day and wish you health and victory. We thank your loved ones and families for supporting you. This is very important. Thank you to your parents for raising such worthy, brave, and strong Ukrainians. Please take care of yourselves,” the Head of State said.

Ukraine’s frontline today. President Zelenskyy visiting our heroes🇺🇦

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— Ukraine (@ukraine-official.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 11:13 AM

«We are increasing the production of Ukrainian missiles. The first 100 this year have already been produced. Serial production of R-360 “Neptun” cruise missiles modified for hitting targets at longer distances has been successfully scaled up.» – Minister of Defence of Ukraine

t.me/ministry_of_…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 12:38 PM

The UN (is still seriously fucked up):

UN calls for the protection of Russian civilians following reports of Biden’s authorization to launch ATACMS missiles against Russia, according to Representative of the Secretary-General Stephane Dujarric.It’s unbelievable how mixed up their

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 3:51 PM

sense of cause and effect is. The world’s most influential organization calls to protect the aggressor’s side, effectively equating them with the victim. They imply that new defensive capabilities for Ukraine are a bad thing, instead of calling for the aggressor to stop the aggression.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 3:51 PM

Germany:

Germany will supply Ukraine with 4,000 AI-powered attack drones, dubbed “minitaurs,” according to Bild. Resistant to Russian GPS jamming and electronic warfare, they boast a range four times greater than current kamikaze drones. Deliveries of hundreds monthly will begin in December.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 8:33 AM

“The German-Swedish air-launched Taurus missiles have a range of up to 500 kilometers (310 miles), which is more than the ATACMS or Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles provided to Ukraine by the U.S., the U.K., and France.”

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 4:56 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

The German Greens’ candidate for chancellor, incumbent Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, told the ARD television channel on Nov. 17 that if elected, he would greenlight the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine.

“The answer to this question is: yes!” said Habeck in response to a question about whether he would authorize the missiles’ delivery. The vice chancellor has served as the economy minister in a coalition government with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats and, until recently, the FDP liberals.

Germany is heading toward snap elections on Feb. 23, 2025, after Scholz fired FDP’s Finance Minister Christian Lindner, leading to the coalition’s collapse.

German assistance to Ukraine, which has become a topic of the electoral campaign, is increasingly crucial amid fears that the U.S. might withdraw its support after Donald Trump’s recent election victory.

Berlin is Ukraine’s second-largest military donor under Scholz, but the chancellor has been adamant about not providing Taurus missiles, fearing it could draw his country into the war.

Habeck said in the interview that deciding on arms deliveries has been part of his job as the economy minister, adding that those “were some of the most difficult decisions (he) had to make.”

The German-Swedish air-launched Taurus missiles have a range of up to 500 kilometers (310 miles), which is more than the ATACMS or Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles provided to Ukraine by the U.S., the U.K., and France.

Friedrich Merz, the chancellor candidate of the opposition center-right CDU/CSU alliance, also said he would allow the delivery of Taurus missiles but only after issuing an ultimatum to Russian President Vladimir Putin and lifting restrictions on already provided arms.

CDU/CSU is currently leading the polls with 33%, followed by the Russian-friendly, far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) with 18%, the Social Democrats at 16%, and the Greens with 11%.

Habeck is unlikely to become Chancellor, but he’s got the right idea.

The Baltic Sea:

/1. Immediately two communication cables were damaged in the Baltic Sea. First one between Finland and Germany. Second between Sweden and Lithuania.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 3:21 PM

/2. Finland-German cable is believed to have broken due to an external force such as anchoring or bottom trawling. The cable is almost 1,200 kilometers long and runs near the Nord Stream gas pipeline. It’s the only one between Finland and Central Europe. www.is.fi/kotimaa/art-…

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 3:21 PM

/3. Sweden-Lithuania cable was cut on Sunday morning, at around 10:00. The systems immediately reported that. Internet connection to Lithuania runs through three cables, which means that the internet bandwidth was reduced by one-third due to the incident. www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-e…

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 3:22 PM

/4. Earlier, US warned about increased Russian military activity around key undersea cables in Baltics and increasing risk of Russian ‘sabotage’ of key undersea cables. edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/p…

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 3:22 PM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Tatarigami and his Frontelligence Insight team have posted a new assessment about the Kursk cross border offensive.

Kursk: Russia Prepares Airfields for the Impact
The announcement permitting Ukraine to strike inside Russia with ATACMS came just yesterday, but evidence suggests Russia has been fortifying the Kursk military airbase since early October. Analysis from Frontelligence Insight🧵:
2/ Satellite imagery shows new aircraft revetments being built, expanding the airfield’s capacity for jets. Both the new and existing revetments are being reinforced with what appears to be concrete blocks for added protection.
3/ The changes are clearly visible when compared to imagery of the same airfield spot from 2022. These newly built revetments offer limited protection, primarily against shrapnel and shockwaves, aiming to minimize damage from missile or drone strikes in the vicinity
4/ The presence of concrete blocks at the construction site indicates ongoing efforts to reinforce the revetments. It’s unclear whether the Russians plan to add roof coverage or focus solely on strengthening the walls.
5/ Since the permission to strike was leaked and publicly announced, it is likely to reduce the impact of strikes. While similar construction activities have been observed at only one other airfield so far, our team expects this trend to extend to additional airfields soon.
6/ With the risk of future ATACMS shipments from the U.S. being cut off, Ukraine must be very wise in target selection and timing. In areas with heavy air defense, multiple missile launches may be needed for a few successful strikes – something Ukraine cannot afford
7/ Thank you for reading, don’t forget to share this thread. Creating materials like these takes lots of resources. Our work is independent, without sponsorship from organizations or states, and relies on your donations.
Please consider aiding Frontelligence Insight:
buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence
Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expensesbuymeacoffee.com

Don’t forget, our team at Frontelligence Insight has a free Substack. Join our email list to get updates on key developments in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as insights on other related topics.

The latest article can be accessed here:
frontelligence.substack.com/p/kursk-russ…

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 4:53 PM

Sumy:

Russian drone struck an apartment building in Sumy region, killing at least one person, injuring god knows how many.
This happens every day across Ukraine for 1000 days

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 7:07 PM

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Russia launched multiple missile attacks on the city of Sumy overnight on Nov. 18.

Regional authorities reported that a Russian ballistic missile hit a residential building in Sumy around 9:30 p.m. local time, killing 11 people. At least 89 people were injured in the overnight attacks, including 11 children.

Among those killed were a 9-year-old boy and a 14-year-old girl, authorities said.

Later in the evening a second Russian missile struck energy infrastructure around 12:30 a.m. local time on Nov. 18, leaving parts of the city without power.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned the initial attack on Telegram.

“A rocket attack on a nine-story building in Sumy. We know about the dead and wounded, including children. My condolences to the families and friends. The criminal must be punished for killing innocent people,” he said.

The rocket also hit the yard of the building, causing extensive damage and leaving surrounding homes without windows, the city’s acting mayor, Artem Kobzar, said.

Emergency services are continuing to assist the victims, as local media report the ongoing impact of the attack.

Russian strikes against Sumy Oblast have become increasingly destructive in recent months, amid fears that Russia may launch a new attack on Sumy Oblast in the coming months.

Shelling is a daily occurrence for the communities near Ukraine’s northeastern border with Russia, with residents in the region’s vulnerable border settlements experiencing multiple attacks per day.

The attack on Sumy follow a large-scale attack on energy infrastructure across the country the night prior, leaving at least seven civilians dead and at least 19 injured across multiple regions.

Odesa:

Video of shot down Russian missile falling on residential area of Odesa today: Ten people have been reported killed and 47 injured. The fatalities included seven police officers, a medic, and two civilian residents, Kyiv Independent reports.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 3:00 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Editor’s note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Russian forces launched a ballistic missile attack against the port city of Odesa on Nov. 18, killing and injuring people.

Ten people have been reported killed, and 55 others injured, with 30 hospitalized. Three of the wounded remain in critical condition, according to Odesa Oblast Governor Oleh Kiper.

The fatalities included seven police officers, a medic, and two civilian residents.

Among the injured were at least 14 law enforcement officers and four children, two of them aged 7, 10, and two 11-year-olds. Local authorities declared Nov. 19 a day of mourning in Odesa, Kiper said.

“Russia treacherously aimed a missile at a residential building, an area of business activity,” Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov said on Telegram shortly after the attack.

Later on, Ukraine’s Air Force clarified that Russia launched an Iskander-M ballistic missile around noon, which was downed by air defenses.

“Unfortunately, the downed missile fell into the residential sector of the city’s Prymorskyi district,” the statement read. Russia reportedly launched a reconnaissance Orlan drone at 11:45 a.m. local time, followed by the missile attack at 11:57 a.m.

A parking lot, a residential building, a university, and an administrative building were damaged in the attack, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

“After calls and meetings with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, after false media gossip about ‘refraining’ from strikes, Russia shows what it is really interested in: only war,” Zelensky said.

The attack occurred shortly after Russia launched one of its largest mass strikes against Ukraine on Nov. 17 and deadly missile attacks against the city of Sumy overnight on Nov. 18.

Odesa, lying on the Black Sea coast in southern Ukraine, is home to some 1 million residents. The port city has been repeatedly targeted throughout the full-scale war.

Kherson:

#Kherson Today, Russian drones:

destroyed 2 ambulances in an Oncological hospital
hit a gas station

Russian artillery struck:

a puppet theater,

killed a man, 46

Yesterday,

4 killed, 10 injured.
19 settlements hit in the Kherson region

My 🎥 report for the last 24 hours from my neighborhood

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— Zarina Zabrisky (@zarinazabrisky.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 12:14 PM

Bakhmut:

Air strike on Russian positions on the Bakhmut front. The strike was carried out with GBU-62 (JDAM-ER).
t.me/bakhmutskyy/…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 5:42 AM

The Dnipro River:

During today’s massive Russian missile attack on Ukraine, Russians attempted to destroy the Kremenchuk Reservoir dam on the Dnipro river. The dam severely is damaged.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) November 17, 2024 at 4:12 PM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Activists raised the flag of Ukraine in occupied Crimea.

The Ukrainian flag was raised on the highest point of the Baidarskaya Yayla, a rocky massif called Ilyas-Kaya, located near Sevastopol.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 12:08 PM

The Crimean partisan underground is still active!

Kharkiv Oblast:

A soldier of the 92nd Air Assault Brigade’s anti-aircraft division “landed” a shahed in Kharkiv region using a heavy machine gun.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 11:46 AM

Kurakhove:

Marines from the 37th Marine Brigade, backed by an American Oshkosh M-ATV’s heavy machine gun, storm enemy positions near Kurakhove. The Oshkosh blasts a dugout holding Russian troops as the marines conduct a sweep, with the vehicle delivering the final strike near Hihant, Donetsk region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 4:17 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Вдруге приїхав у Карпати, і тепер закохався в них ще сильніше💔 #песпатрон #карпати

♬ original sound – Khuzaima

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I came to the Carpathians for the second time, and now I fell in love with them even more 💔 #песпатрон #карпати

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 999: Rolling Blackouts Return & Odesa Is Again in the CrosshairsPost + Comments (9)

Monday Evening Open Thread: ‘The Narrowest of Margins’

by Anne Laurie|  November 18, 20248:19 pm| 56 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Excellent Links, Proud to Be A Democrat

Donald Trump's "landslide" victory was secured by votes equal to the population of Fargo, North Dakota. Add up all the rest of the states that flipped from 2024 — and Kamala Harris only fell short of a “Biden-esque national landslide” by about 300,000 votes.
www.doomsdayscenario.co/p/the-narrow…

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— Garrett M. Graff (@vermontgmg.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 4:48 PM

Dana Houle, one of my favorite political commentors, linked to this — Garrett M. Graff on “How to think about Donald Trump’s narrow, narrow victory”:

… The most important and least important headline of the weekend was that as the final votes of 2024 continue to be counted, Donald Trump slid beneath 50 percent of the popular vote. With about 152 million votes counted, and more still to come, Donald Trump is sitting just a tiny bit below 50 percent of that total…

And yet, it’ll be a reshaping and a path that a majority of voters who showed up for the election victory actually opposed. For all the talk of the “country moving right,” by almost every vote tally the nation has voted more Democratic over the last generation than it has Republican. Here’s a stunning way to think about it: No American born after 1987 had ever voted in an election where the Republican won the popular vote. Now they have—but barely…

Donald Trump’s election the first time in 2016 was the result of just 80,000 votes across three states — just six-hundredths of one percent of the race’s 137 million votes. That time around, his winning margin was just 10,704 votes in Michigan, 46,765 in Pennsylvania, and 22,177 in Wisconsin. Had those votes shifted or had 80,001 more voters in those states turned out for Hillary, President Clinton would have likely filled out a more liberal Supreme Court during her term and Roe would still be the law of the land, probably for a generation.

The winning margin in the electoral college this time around appears like it’s going to be about 130,000 votes—so bigger than 2016, in one sense, but Trump’s popular vote victory will rank as one of the tightest in modern US history. We’re still waiting for final counts, but it appears Wisconsin’s margin will be a difference of about 16,000 votes shifting; Pennsylvania about 72,000 voters; Michigan about 41,000. Even as it is, in neither Wisconsin nor Michigan does Trump appear to win a majority of votes.

Put that margin up against the idea that nationally nearly five times as many Americans — 634,858 voters — voted for some guy named Chase Oliver, the Libertarian candidate for president. (Or heck: Both Jill Stein and RFK Jr. each tallied about 750,000 votes nationally.)…

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Add up all the rest of the states that flipped from 2024 — Arizona, with a margin of about 93,500 votes, Nevada and its 23,000 vote margin, and Georgia, with its 58,400 vote-margin — and Kamala Harris only fell short of a “Biden-esque national landslide” by about 300,000 votes.

If, across those states voters equal roughly to the population of Greensboro, North Carolina, had turned out for Harris instead, Elon Musk would be sweating his future defense contracts and Pete Hegseth would be railing about Harris’s new Cabinet nominations from the anchor desk of Fox News, rather than talking about inheriting the leadership of the Pentagon…

It’s worth remembering that many titanic recent elections are, examined up close, quite narrow. Gerald Ford’s popular vote loss in 1976 was just 1,683,000 votes, about the population then of Detroit, the nation’s fifth-largest city. Nixon lost to Kennedy by just 113,000 votes; in 1968, he turned around and won against Hubert Humphrey by just 500,000 votes, about seven-tenths of one percent of the national popular vote. Nixon was seen as a huge loser after 1960, and history remembers Humphrey today as a footnote; the trajectory and legacy of both men could have been very different.

And imagine how different our world would look today had just 538 more people voted for Al Gore in Florida in the 2000 election…

Monday Evening Open Thread: ‘The Narrowest of Margins’Post + Comments (56)

Politics Isn’t Dead

by @heymistermix.com|  November 18, 20242:37 pm| 311 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

You Were Lied To

Politics didn’t die just because Trump was elected.   As the vote totals get closer and closer, it’s clear that his victory was a combination of people staying home and some very low information voters voting for Trump.  So, it’s essential that we do what Republicans would do in the same situation:  simple, straightforward messaging of unpopular stuff.  And there will be plenty:

Politics Isn't Dead

One of the podcasts I was listening to recently mentioned that this is an extraordinary time in American political history, because we’re used to long periods of stability (like post-New Deal Democratic dominance).  That’s not the case now.  We’re going to have to message to low-information voters, and also try to understand the media they’re consuming, because they’ll be the margin of victory for the next few elections.

Politics Isn’t DeadPost + Comments (311)

Morning Bro

by @heymistermix.com|  November 18, 202410:06 am| 225 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Morning Bro

Folks on Bluesky seem upset by this unsurprising development.

If someone in the comments would be kind enough to explain the allure of Morning Bro, I’d be interested, because I could never understand it.  First and foremost, it’s the way Joe treats Mika, who seems like an intelligent woman with obviously poor taste in men.  He is the biggest mansplaining, interrupting, preening dick on the planet.  How do you get past that?  I never could, and every time I was subject to the show (mainly in hotel lobbies or in the gym), I’d get as far away as possible from the screen and the noise.

Second, and realize that I barely have ever watched the show, but from what I saw in the few times that I was subjected to it was the most garden variety beltway gossip.  Very little new or interesting information was imparted.  As far as I could tell, the panel was generally a chorus of yes-men has-beens.

Anyway, the skeet that Anne Laurie posted from Jen Rubin below, where Rubin says she’s swearing off “dumb media”, specifically all cable TV, made me wonder why an intelligent person like Rubin would pay attention to what’s happening on cable in the year 2024.  Then I read this thread from Angry Black Lady, where she confesses that she would hold back criticizing MSNBC and CNN because she wanted to appear on them once in a while.  That explains a lot (and to be crystal clear, I’m not dunking on ABL — her honesty on this topic is refreshing.)

Well, if one good thing has come out of the Trump election, it’s that a former Republican Congressman who’s a dick to his wife a couple of hours every morning on cable will probably lose even more ratings.

Morning BroPost + Comments (225)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Steps

by Anne Laurie|  November 18, 20246:30 am| 244 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat

Four years ago, we faced unprecedented crises. President Biden understood the magnitude of the challenge and used the tools of government to meet the moment—including an infrastructure package that is transforming our nation. It will be remembered as this century's Big Deal. pic.twitter.com/W87KDTIQ2s

— Secretary Pete Buttigieg (@SecretaryPete) November 15, 2024


 

to do: investigate how certain Dems succeeded (e.g. Slotkin, Gallego, Baldwin); focus on policies' impacts not politics; abandon dumb media (Politico, all cable tv);elevate local and nonprofit media holding powerful accountable; examine the rightwing media disinformation racket; defend vulnerables

— Jen Rubin (@jenrubin.bsky.social) November 11, 2024 at 7:00 PM


 
Overall, Trump’s pick get a net negative response. We should share this graph widely!

How Americans view Trump’s nominees. www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202…

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— Philip Bump (@pbump.com) November 16, 2024 at 9:06 AM


 
I agree with this retrospective conversation:

in retrospect bidens decision to do the right thing on Afghanistan was incredibly telling: he did the thing nominally leftist critics wanted, trump said he would do, and msm critics were demanding he provide An Affirmative Answer on and got pilloried from every corner as a result

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— Victory Over the Sun (@hrtraulsen.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 1:09 AM

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Underappreciated catalyst for our present moment & really the perfect storm: legacy media got excited because they had a "biden is fucking up" story, lefties never updated their priors about the forever wars, the right had a narrative about american decline & weakness

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— Hemry, Local Bartender (@bartenderhemry.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 1:55 AM

yup bsky.app/profile/jeff…

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— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 1:21 AM

fwiw I think Biden, based both on reporting and knowledge of what he's like, made the decision 100% on the merits of what he thought the interests of the United States were and wasn't really considering the politics at all, and certainly not counting on the anti-war left having his back

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— Michael Tae Sweeney (@mtsw.bsky.social) November 18, 2024 at 1:19 AM


 

every Dem should read how Tammy Baldwin did it www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202…

[image or embed]

— Jen Rubin (@jenrubin.bsky.social) November 17, 2024 at 9:42 AM


(gift link)
 
Monday Morning Open Thread 22

(Basic Instructions / Scott Meyer via GoComics.com)
(Ford’s “reasons“)

Monday Morning Open Thread: StepsPost + Comments (244)

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