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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

No one could have predicted…

Second rate reporter says what?

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

There are consequences to being an arrogant, sullen prick.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

In my day, never was longer.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

If you’re gonna whine, it’s time to resign!

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

These days, even the boring Republicans are nuts.

Republicans in disarray!

Dear media: perhaps we ought to let Donald Trump speak for himself!

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

Hi god, it’s us. Thanks a heap, you’re having a great week and it’s only Thursday!

Nancy smash is sick of your bullshit.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

So very ready.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Proof of Life: Denver Meetup on Nov 1, 2024

by WaterGirl|  November 15, 20245:04 pm| 27 Comments

This post is in: Meetups, Open Threads

I think this was in Denver, anyway!

I feel certain that I will be corrected if I am wrong.

JAFD (white beard) on left, Comrade Scott’s Agenda of Rage on right.
Maybe next will be at Cold Wars, beginning of March in Gettysburg.

I have to say, Comrade Scott’s Agenda of Rage does not look very rage-y in this photo!

…..

Comrade Scott was commanding the Samnites (on right side of the picture, vs Medieval French on left)

If someone wants to prove further explanation of what we’re looking at here, I’ll add it to the post.

Open thread.  (anything except election or recriminations talk)

Proof of Life: Denver Meetup on Nov 1, 2024Post + Comments (27)

Speaking of the Senate

by @heymistermix.com|  November 15, 20243:09 pm| 124 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Josh Marshall’s podcast comes out on Wednesdays, but I just got around to listening to it.  I used some AI to transcribe one section about the institutionalism of the Senate.  It’s kind of long, so it’s below the fold.  Also, trigger warning, there is some criticism of Democratic Senators, so move on if that bothers you.

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Kate Riga [TPM Reporter]:  But the reason why I’m nervous that Democrats are just going to plod on the same kind of path than they have been. And when I say Democrats here, I’m talking about the elites, the institutional ones, the ones who wield power, for two reasons.

One, someone asked Durbin about Sotomayor stepping down in the lame duck and getting replaced. This has been kind of bubbling up in the conversation a bit. Maybe 70, she’s diabetic. You hate to do these kind of actuarial tables for people, but it’s the kind of hard–these are realities. It’s the ruthless truth of having a lifetime appointment. And someone asked Durbin about it and he said, “Oh, no, it’s not realistic. We’re not talking about that kind of thing.”

And it’s like maybe there are impediments to doing that. Maybe Manchin and Sinema would be really eager to stick it to Democrats one last time. I don’t know. But it’s classic, right? This kind of preemptive, we haven’t even tried yet, but we’re already giving up kind of thing layered with this notion that it’s uncouth to even talk about it. It’s disrespectful. It doesn’t behoove someone of her stature. And look, I love Sotomayor. I think she’s a great justice. I think her specific niche of bringing real-world suffering into these right-wing hobby horse cases is invaluable. However, that doesn’t mean that a very young, healthy liberal justice wouldn’t vote the same way that she votes on everything, wouldn’t be a valuable voice on the court.

At some point, it can’t be about this hagiography to these figures. It has to be about getting and keeping power, which is something that Democrats just– they act like it’s beneath them, right? Again, it’s uncouth. It’s not something they should talk about.

So that’s one data point.

And then the other is, Schumer initially was not inviting either of the Pennsylvania candidates to the Senate for orientation because that race has been called by AP. But then some stuff came out where the AP was like, “Oh, damn. We didn’t realize there were quite this many ballots outstanding when we made the call.” No networks have replicated it yet. So you do get a real sense of there’s more to go here. And it’s a close race, and it’s coming down to provisional ballots and stuff that comes in late, and that’s counted slowly. Schumer was not inviting anyone.

The Republicans started doing this whole “Election fraud, this is election fraud. Bob Casey isn’t conceding. Didn’t you just spend four years yelling at us for this, and now you’re doing the same thing?”  Obviously bad faith bullshit. Bob Casey is not storming the Capitol. He’s just saying, “I don’t know. Maybe we count all the votes in a really close election before we decide the winner.” And guess what? Schumer caved. Guess who was at orientation? Dave McCormick, before that race has been really settled. […]

But you guys got to grow up, and you have got to be able to start detecting when the blowback you’re getting is unbelievably bad faith and start learning to ignore it.

Josh Marshall: 100%. I think another thing– and this is something we’ve talked about at other points in the podcast, and it comes into play, especially with the Senate. It is an elite– by definition and intention an elite institution. But what you see, and maybe to some degree Republicans have their own version of this that they feel Republican voters feel, there is a pattern where Democratic senators, the sort of the top senators, feel that they are a little higher in the altitude or a little more rare. The concerns of Democratic voters are a little beneath them. Right? You’ve got bigger fish to fry here. This is the United States Senate and all this kind of stuff.

And that is, first of all, that’s just not true at a basic level. But you can’t get people all riled up about the consequences of elections and then be dismissive of their attitudes and concerns. And it’s not just unfortunate or you shouldn’t do that. It again, it’s something that breeds cynicism. Because if these things are really that important, then they’re that important. It’s stuff like whether you’re going to pass a Roe law. You say, “Well, OK, this is the Senate. There are realities.” Well, fuck that, man.

And you see it with– I don’t pick on Dick Durbin here. But a lot of senators, they’ve been there for a long time. Again, it’s designed to be an elite institution. There’s a reason it is like that. But you can’t when you get people really riled up.

And look, I believe that basically all of those senators there really believe in abortion rights. They think it’s important. I don’t think they’re lying when they’re saying, “Hey, bodily autonomy is on the line in this election and everything.” But if you believe that, you have to act that when it comes to making basic decisions about what you’re going to do in the Senate. And that disconnect, and now it’s about abortion. It’s been about other things. That is toxic because, again, it creates that disconnect.

That’s why you and I at various points, you put together that kind of updating infographic in 2022 about where different senators are on the filibuster. But with an eye towards passing a Roe law. Obviously, this is just after Dobbs. You have to, that tether has to be there. If people think, “Wow, I really do have to vote and maybe I’m pissed about prices, but I’m sick of this. I’m sick of hearing about these women bleeding out in hospitals in Texas.” So fuck that. I’m going to vote for the Democrats because we need to get this done. You can’t expect people to follow that chain of logic if you’re kind of coming back after the election and say, “Well, okay, look, there’s realities in the Senate that are hard to understand.” Well, then leave. Get us someone who doesn’t understand those realities like us, who will just go and do it.

And because those realities are just, I don’t know, I don’t think these folks, the great majority of them, I think really believe in these policy priorities. I don’t think they grasp the toxic and corrosive nature of that behavior on the possibilities for democratic action in this country.

Note that Kate Riga’s beat is the Capitol and Supreme Court , and she sees the workings (or non-workings) of Congress up close and personal every day.

Watching Trump make the worst set of cabinet appointments in modern history, I keep thinking to myself, well, he’s keeping his word.  He’s doing what he said he was going to do, he’s doing it quickly, and he’s putting Republicans in Congress in a bit of a box because he’s demanding to go around them.

Also, on the whole hopeful/optimism thing — the only way I get hope for the future is to discuss how Democrats could take back power, and also to have an honest discussion of the changes we need to make to get there.  Josh and Kate started out with a discussion of how, when the Democrats are in power again, we need to expand the Supreme Court.  Is that going to happen?  I don’t know, but saying “it can never happen” is pre-failing, and that is the death of hope, in my opinion.

Speaking of the SenatePost + Comments (124)

A Couple of Good Reads

by @heymistermix.com|  November 15, 202411:21 am| 163 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I’ve been following Bolts Magazine on Bluesky and I like what I see.  Here’s a good overview of the effect of state Supreme Court elections on the recent election. For example, when the GOP got a majority in North Carolina, they green lighted a gerrymandering plan that flipped three US House seats.

From Lawfare, here’s a discussion of how the Presidential adjournment power could be used to enable recess appointments for Trump.  This idea is floating around Republican legal circles.

It is one thing to say as a senator that in principle you support the president’s ability to use the recess appointment power, as Thune did. It is quite another thing to acquiesce to the engineering of a fake congressional recess in order to facilitate the president’s use of the recess appointment power by way of circumventing one’s own body’s constitutional authority. As [NRO writer Ed] Whelan describes the engineering in question, the Senate could not actually stop this from happening directly, since it requires only Speaker Johnson’s involvement. That means, paradoxically, that if Trump can do this, the scheme Whelan describes would enable any president to evade Senate confirmation for his cabinet for two years so long as his party controls the House of Representatives.

That said, as a functional matter, Senate Republicans could stop it dead in its tracks merely by making clear that they are willing to defend their institutional prerogative and are willing to use their oversight and appropriations powers in an effort to do so. They could, for example, say that cabinet officials who have not gone through Senate confirmation or been appointed during a regular recess should not expect legislative cooperation on key matters. A few phone calls to this effect from a few committee chairs would make the scheme untenable, at least for an administration that wants to do anything.

I have long since stopped expecting senators to put their country or their branch of government over party, and I’m not going to make a plea for that here. My days of such naivete are over.

I am going to say that what goes around comes around, and Republican senators should be at least a little bit careful about creating an infrastructure for a liberal president to install atop federal agencies left-wing activists specifically chosen to antagonize conservatives—and to do so without Senate approval.

It’s a very ingrained Senatorial reflex to avoid tough votes.  I have no doubt that Thune’s caucus has a mix of Senators who would love to vote for Matt Gaetz, RFK Jr. and the rest, along with a good number who would rejoice if there were some way to avoid the vote altogether.  The question is whether someone like Collins, who’s up in 2026 and will be a mere sprite of 73, thinks she can get away with supporting some recess fuckery to elide responsibility for putting an (accused) statutory rapist into the AG spot.  Considering that she won in 2020 even though she was essentially one of Trump’s handmaidens, my guess  is that she’ll go along.  Murkowski is also a question mark.  Thom Tillis is also up in 2026, not that it probably matters.

A Couple of Good ReadsPost + Comments (163)

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: The Past Is Never Dead…

by Anne Laurie|  November 15, 20248:50 am| 251 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Justice, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

… It’s not even past…

Ruby is now 70….this is not ancient history….this is recent American history and it’s what they don’t want taught in schools

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) November 14, 2024

We have 50 days left to do everything we can on behalf of the American people.

This is our final window to confirm independent judges who will make decisions based on the law – not for special interests.

Senate Democrats cannot leave a single judge behind. pic.twitter.com/xgxLtVTfQD

— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) November 14, 2024

Americans aren’t any dumber than they were 50 to 100 years ago but the news media they consume is significantly dumber https://t.co/iRzUYKRix5

— The Great El Wokismo (@canderaid) November 14, 2024

Trump is an authoritarian with no business being President. Not hard to find. Not even hard to hear.

— Henry Porter 🇺🇸 (@HenryPorters) November 15, 2024

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All too often, ignorance is a choice.

People who intentionally don’t know anything about the world around them went +19 for Trump https://t.co/NItXWLeQ2S

— RyanMarino.bsky.social (@RyanMarino) November 15, 2024

Circuses, back on the menu, courtesy of our global megacorps!

Airbnb users to play gladiators in Rome's Colosseum, sparking mixed reactions over $1.5 million deal https://t.co/gQuUfK7PjE

— The Associated Press (@AP) November 14, 2024

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: The Past Is Never Dead…Post + Comments (251)

Forsaken Florida (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  November 15, 20246:41 am| 127 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I’m using a fake Facebook account to get news about the flood from the county and the regional water management organization. I hate fucking Facebook and shuttered my real account ages ago.

It pisses me off that public organizations make you use Facebook to keep up with things. It sucks that x-Twitter is also in that mix, but here we are.

Anyhoo, even with the scant information I provided to create the page, the evil algorithm offers enticing suggestions of pages to explore. I took the bait on a page called Abandoned Florida, which features fascinating stories and photos about derelict homes and properties.

Ruins of a limestone rock building

These ruins were part of a hotel and sanitarium at Suwannee Springs. Early hucksters claimed the mineral springs could cure everything from malaria to “female troubles.” I wish it were true!

The state has been overrun by a new breed of hucksters. What they’re selling is a heap worse than fake cures for health ills: It’s poison for the soul. The good news is someday their works will lie in ruins too.

Open thread.

Forsaken Florida (Open Thread)Post + Comments (127)

Late Night Open Thread: The KKKlown-Car Gish Gallop

by Anne Laurie|  November 15, 20244:32 am| 95 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

I think Trump wants to shrink the GOP’s already slim House majority Why?

— Limits Mike Johnson’s power.
— Reduces pressure on him to pass significant legislation, shifting focus to executive orders.
— Solidifies Trump’s role as the uncontested leader of his party.

— Christopher Hale (@chrisjollyhale) November 13, 2024

Clownshoes are better than jackboots.

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— Kakistocracy Hat (@kenwhite.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 5:18 PM

Trump is obviously not a smart man, but his low cunning & long media / WWE experience has given him a genuine talent for throwing so many bad ideas at once that his questioners are overwhelmed by the sheer volume. His proposed administrative picks these last few days have been the staffing equivalent of a Gish gallop, where exposure of the manifest unfitness of every new candidate is overridden by the next ‘surprise’ candidate…

It's almost painful watching Speaker Mike Johnson BEG Trump to stop nominating GOP caucus members to various government posts.

"I've told President Trump enough already." pic.twitter.com/zgMNQghxin

— American Bridge 21st Century (@American_Bridge) November 14, 2024

Massive blight & ‘First Buddy’ Elon Musk seems, for the moment, to have been distracted by the shiny-object promise of a politically futile ‘agency’ where he and a suitable noxic second banana / Trump sycophant (Vivek Ramaswamy) can strut and talk tough.

Lmao this is going to piss off Elon so much pic.twitter.com/vjW2tmKt5H

— evan loves worf (@esjesjesj) November 13, 2024

You see DOGE, I see a blue ribbon commission created as a sop to some annoying people Susie Wiles doesn’t want anywhere near the West Wing

— Peter Hamby (@PeterHamby) November 13, 2024

Pairing Elon and Vivek is like a buddy comedy written by someone who doesn’t understand buddies or comedy

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— Kakistocracy Hat (@kenwhite.bsky.social) November 12, 2024 at 8:17 PM

Then there’s the ‘FAFO’ candidates: Tom Homan for dictator of Homeland Security (i.e., deportations), and Mike Huckabee for Ambassador to Israel (Netanyahu cheerleader). Both of them, if allowed free reign, will be catastrophic. Both of them have been greeted with anger, but not surprise. Trump promised to deport ‘all the illegals, the bad people’ if he was elected, and to give Bibi Netanyahu ‘a free hand’ against ‘Islamic terrorists’. Homan & Huckabee are obvious (terrible) choices.

People are dragging him/the NYT for not publishing this crucial interview about the Trump admin's plans for mass deportation before the election, but how were they supposed to fit it in in between the 100s of articles/posts about Joe Biden being old? https://t.co/uBl1M5j5KR

— Centrism Fan Acct ?? (@Wilson__Valdez) November 15, 2024

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By picking Mike Huckabee for ambassador to Israel, Trump shows that evangelical Christians, not Jews, are the religious constituency for his Israel policy, @Yair_Rosenberg writes. But they are not the only interested parties: https://t.co/TpHGfhTYBl

— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) November 14, 2024

In the last couple days, we’ve gotten into full-on foreign-asset / QAnon craziness. Pete Hegseth is a media-photogenic thug whose defense expertise involves abusing military captives and defending those who commit war crimes.

congratulations dearborn! https://t.co/A1YwRA6Fzw

— The Great El Wokismo (@canderaid) November 14, 2024

Oh no wonder Trump picked this guy….here he was on January 6 pic.twitter.com/eaLpXPrUFP

— Wu Tang is for the Children (@WUTangKids) November 13, 2024

Matt Gaetz is a nepo-baby sexual thug who Trump wants as his Chief Enforcer against his enemies, real and imagined.

Besides sex trafficking a minor, Matt Gaetz invited a Holocaust denier to Congress. These are the reasons why conservatives love him. pic.twitter.com/qAfqJ7ZypI

— evan loves worf (@esjesjesj) November 13, 2024

BREAKING: Republican Senator John Cornyn just announced that he would like the House Ethics Committee to release the findings of the Matt Gaetz investigation. It sure looks like Republicans are going to sink one of Trump’s first nominees. pic.twitter.com/si7YZuICOz

— Democratic Wins Media (@DemocraticWins) November 14, 2024

Still think it's possible that Gaetz was always going to be the sacrifice so that GOP senators can claim to have opposed Trump and then fold on other nominations https://t.co/gH0xEceKIe

— Tom Nichols (@RadioFreeTom) November 15, 2024

Just call them The Lawn Chair Caucus, because that's how easily they fold. https://t.co/dozhfkL0rF

— Ragnarok Lobster ?? (@eclecticbrotha) November 14, 2024

Tulsi Gabbard is a wholly-owned foreign asset of Putin’s Russia, who can be trusted to sell out America’s allies and kill a lot of American agents while treating the department as her personal goodie bag… just as Donald Trump has.

In Russian state television, the debate is whether Tulsi Gabbard should be referred to as "our agent" or as "girlfriend." https://t.co/qa4W8m0Fmu

— Timothy Snyder (@TimothyDSnyder) November 14, 2024

Three days into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as Putin’s soldiers were razing cities, raping and executing Ukrainians, Gabbard — who was just tapped by Trump to be director of national intelligence — called on Zelensky to “embrace the spirit of aloha.” https://t.co/jIsU6G5tbB

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 13, 2024

And now it looks as though RFKennedy Jr, despite his manifest insanities, might be given the chance to turn Health & Human Services into the Department of Just Asking Questions.

Que Sirhan Sirhan

RFK Jr. taking over Health and Human Services might just be the shot in the arm Donald’s cabinet needs to finish off Joe’s agenda once and for all.

by Maureen Dowd

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) November 14, 2024

pic.twitter.com/lz2FQCAnHB

— Grungehamster (@Grungehamster1) November 15, 2024

Two weeks ago, Trump's transition co-chair @HowardLutnik told @KaitlanCollins that RFK, Jr. would not be appointed health secretary. pic.twitter.com/2SEqmDr8Fg

— Christopher Hale (@chrisjollyhale) November 14, 2024

But, as Chris Cillizza and Astead Herndon assure us, it will be Tremendous Content!

Trump is appointing for loyalty over competence not just to execute his agenda but to protect himself from any attempt by Vance to remove/replace him via the 25th amendment. The first struggle in any authoritarian regime is who will be the final boss. There can be only one.

— Wesley Clark (@WesClarkjr) November 14, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: The KKKlown-Car Gish GallopPost + Comments (95)

War for Ukraine Day 995: Odesa Under the Gun

by Adam L Silverman|  November 14, 20249:04 pm| 19 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing well. Though because of my schedule we didn’t get a walk in this evening. She did get lots of noms. Thank you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Second, as I’ve mentioned today was a very long day. I’m going to just run down the basics, get cleaned up, and rack out.

The Russians opened up on Odesa about 4 hours ago (that would be 4 PM EST/11 PM local time in Ukraine).

Odesa right now! Residential building is on fire following a russian missile attack.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 3:38 PM

💔🤬 One of the apartments in Odesa after Russian strike…

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 4:05 PM

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

Editor’s Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Russia attacked the city of Odesa with drones and missiles late in the evening on Nov. 14, striking residential buildings and killing one civilian.

A “massive” Russian aerial attack targeted Odesa and the surrounding region, Governor Oleh Kiper reported.

One woman was killed and at least 10 others were injured, including a 9-year-old boy, Kiper said. A 22-year-old man sustained serious injuries and has been hospitalized, while the others are being treated in medical facilities for moderate injuries.

The attack destroyed an apartment building in the city center, Kiper said. Other residential buildings suffered fires and damage. The strike damaged a church, educational institutions, and vehicles.

The attack hit one of Odesa’s main heating pipelines, forcing the city to shut down one of its boiler houses. According to Kiper, the system was responsible for heating 220 apartment buildings, seven kindergartens, and four schools.

The boiler house also provided heat to a maternity hospital, where there are currently 22 babies and 28 people giving birth, Kiper said. The hospital is able to heat itself with its generator, and repairs are underway at the boiler house.

Emergency services are at work at the sites of the attack.

Andriy Yermak, the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, called the strike on Odesa a “terrorist attack.”

“(Russian President Vladimir) Putin just likes to fight civilians,” he said.

Russia has ramped up its drone attacks across Ukraine, including in major cities like Odesa and the capital, Kyiv. Consecutive drone strikes targeted Odesa on Nov. 8 and 9, killing and injuring civilians.

Ukrainian officials have warned about the looming threat to the country’s energy and heating systems ahead of the winter months. The interim head of Ukraine’s state grid operator Ukrenergo said on Oct. 29 that the country may be facing its most challenging winter since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Here’s Ukraine’s air defense tally from last night/this morning:

Relatively small Russian drone attack on Ukraine last night – air raid siren did not even sound in Kyiv. Of 59 Shahed drones, 21 shot down, 38 lost through jamming. Wednesday’s “Big Attack” was not very damaging, with fewer missiles fired that initially feared.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:55 AM

This clip from President Zelenskyy’s interview on NBC has been making the rounds, but this is the first time I’ve seen it on Bluesky:

President Zelenskyy: “We are not ready to give our freedom to this fucking terrorist Putin”.

Zelenskyy will be studied as a hero, not only for Ukraine, but our current moment in time for generations.

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— Meanwhile in Ukraine (@meanwhileua.bsky.social) November 13, 2024 at 4:17 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Continue to Work on Our Internal Resilience Plan – Address by the President

14 November 2024 – 20:18

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

It’s been a long day today.

We continue to work on our internal Resilience Plan – everything needed to ensure Ukraine stands strong. Today, we covered several points, including cultural sovereignty, which encompasses Ukraine’s cultural heritage, contemporary culture, and cultural diplomacy. The production of Ukrainian content and, to that end, fostering real and effective unity within Ukraine’s cultural community. This is part of our strength and an element of guaranteeing Ukraine’s ties with the global world. There are things that politics, public figures, and the media cannot convey to others, but emotions can – art can. Culture, in general, is a tool that works universally for humanity across different parts of the world. We must devote much more state attention to this, and we will. Today, we also addressed a security point within our internal Plan – security across our country, in every region, in every community. This is fundamental. A safe space that every person needs. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and the Security Service of Ukraine have developed some good solutions. We will definitely implement everything. We have already addressed points related to energy – everything has been prepared in detail – as well as armaments, including our own production and cooperation with allies. There are ten points in total, which will be presented next week, and for each point, together with Ukrainian civil society, together with everyone ready to contribute rational ideas, together with business, we will prepare a foundational, doctrinal document for Ukraine, for our resilience. With specific annexes. Step by step. Outlining how we will harness our internal capacities to secure a Ukrainian victory, so that we may rightly claim that word – victory. Each one of us – every Ukrainian. Millions who dream of ending this war in a way that is just for Ukraine and who work and fight toward that goal.

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi delivered a report. As always, this is how the day begins. Not only the Donetsk region, but also the Kupyansk direction, where our warriors performed very effectively. I’m grateful to everyone for their resilience. Southern directions. The Kursk operation. I am proud of all our people, every unit holding their positions and giving Ukraine the opportunity to convince the world that people must prevail. This is exactly what Ukraine is fighting for.

Thank you to everyone who helps! Thank you to everyone who stands with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Russian aggression in Ukraine killed a Ukrainian combat medic Mariia-Khrystyna Dvoinik during her evacuation mission.

“She loved Ukraine, dreaming of its restoration after victory,” wrote the Hospitallers Battalion, where she served.

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 6:42 PM

Let us keep the Defenders of Ukraine in our prayers.

RIP – Mykola Yavorskyi, Mykhailo Kulyniak (52), Oleksandr Patsalov (27), Armenian fighter Karen Khachatrian

We are the Dead. Short days ago
We lived… and now we lie
In Flanders fields

#LetUkraineStrikeBackNow

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 1:04 AM

💔 Today in Kryvyi Rih, there was a funeral of mother, Olena Kulyk, and her three children: ten-year-old Kirylo, two-year-old Demyd, and two-month-old Ulyana.

🤬 They were killed by a Russian missile on November 11.

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 6:27 AM

#UkrainianView

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— Roman Yeremenko (@roalyr.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 3:54 PM

Germany:

Scholz is doubling down that he is not going to deliver any German cruise missiles to Ukraine.

He is in full election mode to appease not only Russia, but also his SPD base. He didn’t learn anything from the past and it is good that his time will be up in a few months.

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— (((Tendar))) (@tendar.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:45 PM

Imagine the level of prosperity that Germany will have if Ukraine falls as a result of such a myopic policy and Russia moves against Europe.

Many will terribly regret not taking a chance to secure peace much easier by helping Ukraine win, but Scholz will not be there to suffer the consequences.

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— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:51 PM

In other words:
‘Germany’s Russia support came in exchange for our country’s prosperity at the cost of Ukrainian lives and freedom.‘

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— Jessica Berlin (@berlinbridge.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 2:31 PM

Everywhere in Ukraine:

Since Moscow first employed Shaheds in October 2022, these killer drones have contributed to the deteriorating mental health of Ukrainians, and the destruction of critical infrastructure and homes, putting an additional burden on the Ukrainian military tasked with the defense of the Ukrainian skies.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 14, 2024 at 4:26 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Marharyta Koldanova was standing at a bus stop in a residential area in Kyiv when a sudden loud noise went off, prompting her to take out a tourniquet from her bag and prepare to quickly apply it in case she got injured by an aerial attack.

“I was overwhelmed with adrenaline and stress,” Koldanova told the Kyiv Independent.

The air raid alarm that usually alerts Ukrainians of a threat of a Russian drone or missile strike wasn’t on. The sound she heard wasn’t a weapon exploding but the noise coming from a local thermal power plant — a regular buzz for a big city like Kyiv.

Yet for Koldanova, whose daily life has been disrupted by Russian aerial attacks for 2.5 years, even a regular loud noise comes with an immediate sense of danger.

Like thousands of other Ukrainians struggling with mental health issues due to the war, Koldanova has developed a hypersensitivity to sounds, anxiety, and insomnia. Since Russian strikes happen most often at night, they have been robbing millions of Ukrainians of proper sleep.

To target cities far from the front line, Russia has been employing a combination of missiles and drones, often launched in large-scale coordinated attacks. However, in the past couple of months, Moscow’s forces have changed tactics, launching barrages of drones nearly every night, and largely avoiding missiles.

In October alone, over 2,000 drones attacked Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian military. These drone barrages aim to exhaust and locate the country’s air defenses ahead of a larger campaign of strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure this winter, experts say.

Though not as destructive as missiles and bombs, drone attacks often stretch on for many hours and can be launched far more frequently since drones are cheap and easy to produce.

For long-range drone strikes, Russia’s weapon of choice is the Iranian-designed Shahed, which can travel up to 2,500 kilometers, reaching any settlement in Ukraine.

Since Moscow first employed Shaheds in October 2022, these killer drones have contributed to the deteriorating mental health of Ukrainians, and the destruction of critical infrastructure and homes, putting an additional burden on the Ukrainian military tasked with the defense of the Ukrainian skies.

“If I fall asleep before the air alarm, I often wake up to explosions, panicking and confused,” Koldanova, a 32-year-old copywriter, told the Kyiv Independent, describing how her nights have been lately. “If the alarm starts when I’m awake, I can’t go to sleep until the threat is over. I just sit and wait for the all-clear.”

Sometimes, this wait stretches until early morning.

Living close to a Kyiv air defense site, Koldanova hears explosions close-by and sees flashes of the defense system firing at drones and missiles from her window. She’s too afraid to spend 10 minutes to run to a nearby shelter, fearing debris could fall nearby and injure her, so she hides in her corridor with her dog, watching red flashes and listening attentively to every sound.

“Every time I hear an explosion, I think how close it was to me and whether (the next one) could hit my house.”

Running on just 3-4 hours of sleep, Koldanova finds it hard to concentrate at work the next day. Many Ukrainians struggle with low productivity, as experts say sleep deprivation hampers decision-making, memory, and performance.

“Sleep deprivation makes even minor dangers feel extreme, creating the feeling that danger is literally at every step and not letting you relax for a moment,” explains Nika Bielska, a sleep consultant and geneticist. “This makes it difficult to study, work, and just live your everyday life, strains family relationships, and heightens the risk of PTSD (post-traumatic stress disorder).”

Already in fall 2022, over 70% of Ukrainian business leaders cited the deterioration of employee mental health as the main challenge for their companies. Fatigue and tension are now the dominant feelings for Ukrainians, according to a June 2024 survey by Gradus Research.

Chronic sleep loss can lead to anxiety and depression and increase risks for physical health, including cancer and diabetes, says Volodymyr Voloshyn, a Ukrainian crisis psychologist and the head of the Institute of Health Psychology. He suggests Russia may be using sleep deprivation to make Ukrainians more vulnerable to manipulation and disinformation, important tools of modern warfare.

Bielska adds that the longer sleep deprivation persists, the harder it becomes to relax, creating a “vicious cycle” of lack of sleep.

Even when Kyiv gets a rare quiet night, free from Russian attacks, any loud noise can deprive local residents of sleep due to the developed hypersensitivity to sounds.

​​”When there’s a thunderstorm and rain, I can’t sleep,” says Koldanova. “I wake up panicking and check the news to make sure it was not an explosion.”

Much, much more at the link.

I’m guessing that the below was either in Kyiv or Lviv:

A Russian missile strike damaged the MasterChef filming set in Ukraine—but thankfully, there were no injuries.

Despite the war, the team at STB channel has pushed through, adding shelters and generators to keep filming the reality show loved by many.

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— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 14, 2024 at 1:42 PM

Kyiv:

We’re going to have a Christmas tree in downtown Kyiv again, yay!

Not as grandiose as what we had before 2022 and hopefully funded by volunteering businesses instead of city budget… but kids (and not only kids) need to feel the Christmas miracle even in the time of war.

— Illia Ponomarenko (@ioponomarenko.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 7:02 AM

Terny Donetsk Oblast:

Russian soldiers shot dead an unarmed woman walking on the street of the front-line village of Terny in Donetsk Oblast, the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on Nov. 14.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 14, 2024 at 9:11 AM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian soldiers shot dead an unarmed woman walking on the street of the front-line village of Terny in Donetsk Oblast, the Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported on Nov. 14.

Numerous cases of Russian troops murdering or abusing civilians have surfaced since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion in 2022, underscoring the humanitarian disaster wrought by the war.

Pictures shared on the prosecutor’s office’s Telegram channel show a woman in a pink jacket walking on the outskirts of the village, with a subsequent picture showing her lying on the ground with her face in the mud.

“Russian soldiers saw a local resident walking down the street along the houses destroyed by the enemy. The soldiers opened fire on the woman. A shot from small arms killed the civilian,” the statement read.

According to the prosecutors, the killing took place on Nov. 10. Ukrainian authorities have launched a war crime investigation.

Terny is a front-line village in northern Donetsk Oblast, some 35 kilometers (20 miles) northeast of the city of Sloviansk.

Russia has committed 137,000 war crimes in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the United for Justice conference in Kyiv in September.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) announced in June that it had issued arrest warrants for Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s former defense minister, and Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian army, for intentionally harming civilians and other charges related to Russian strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.

The court also issued an arrest warrant for Russian President Vladimir Putin in March 2023 over the forced deportation of Ukrainian children.

The Kyiv Independent has a documentary on the Russians terrorizing, brutalizing, and killing Ukrainians in Russian occupied Ukraine:

Kupiansk:

Russian forces have entered parts of Kupiansk, a city liberated by Ukraine in 2022. DeepState analytics mark one of city street as a ‘grey zone.’ While local authorities report halting the advance, this key hub, 100km from Kharkiv, faces the threat of renewed occupation.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 3:40 AM

Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attempts to break into the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast; The Defense Ministry plans to finalize a bill defining the procedure and conditions for discharging military personnel from service by Dec. 18 this year; and more.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) November 14, 2024 at 3:37 PM

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian forces successfully repelled Russian attempts to break into the city of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Ukrinfrom reported on Nov. 14, citing the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces.

“All Russian attacks in this direction were successfully repelled. Russian invaders failed to enter Kupiansk. The city is under the control of Ukraine’s Armed Forces,” General Staff spokesperson Andrii Kovalev told Ukrinform.

The statement came after the crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState had claimed late on Nov. 13 that some Russian units, including armored vehicles and a tank, managed to enter Kupiansk but soon suffered heavy losses.

Kupiansk is a key logistics and railway hub in the eastern part of Kharkiv Oblast. With several highways and five railway lines running through it, the town was briefly occupied by Russian forces before it was liberated during a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the autumn of 2022.

According to Kovalev, Russian forces attempted to break through Ukrainian defenses in the area at around 2:30 p.m. local time on Nov. 13, attacking in four waves. They employed 15 vehicles, including tanks and armored fighting vehicles.

The spokesperson said that Russian troops wore Ukrainian uniforms, which violates international rules of warfare. Ukrainian defenders destroyed “all Russian armored vehicles” and a “significant part of manpower,” he added.

Russian troops ramped up their efforts near Kupiansk in early September and are now only 2 3 kilometers from the city’s industrial outskirts in the northeast. Moscow’s forces are attempting to find a footing for a final push to reach the Oskil River, dividing the city into two, before winter sets in.

During his evening address, President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the soldiers defending the front line and spoke of Russia’s “attempts to expand their offensive, especially in the Kupiansk direction.”

“I am grateful to all our units for their resilience,” he said.

Even if Russian units have not yet entered the town, regular shelling of the city creates increasingly hard conditions for the locals to continue with their lives, with no gas, water, or electricity in the city’s eastern bank.

Capturing the city would widen the north-to-south supply route from Russia’s Belgorod Oblast, fuelling their attempt to take the entire Donbas region.

Kharkiv:

“Roman Dudin, former head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) in Kharkiv Oblast, accused of state treason, has been released on bail from detention.”
Just one question: WTF?

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 11:59 AM

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Frontline report: Ukraine traps Russian forces in Kursk direction after calculated withdrawal

Ukrainian forces allowed Russian mechanized units to advance through lowland settlements before cutting them off from high ground positions in forests and hills

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 5:24 AM

From Euromaidan Press:

On 14 November, the biggest news came from the Kursk direction.

Here, Ukrainians perfectly executed a complex tactical maneuver to eliminate the Russian spearhead while maintaining their combat potential, leading to the complete encirclement of the Russian assault group.

The Russian relief operation launched on the Ukrainian flanks also ended in disaster, leading to Russian casualties soaring to an all-time high.

As you may remember from the last report, Ukrainians completely dismantled the Russian mechanized assault on Malaya Loknya, destroying 15 armored vehicles with mines and drones. Still, Russians managed to penetrate quite deep into Ukrainian territory, driving through multiple towns in the northern part of the salient.

Ukrainians realized that holding on to settlements in the face of such a large Russian mechanized attack would be costly to Ukrainian forces. This led to Ukrainians temporarily abandoning the settlements and returning to better positions.

If we look at the topographic map, we can see that the road and settlements leading to Malaya Loknya run through the lowlands, surrounded by forests and hills to the west and east. Ukrainians withdrew from the settlements to the high ground, letting the Russian convoy pass through and allowing it to be destroyed by previously placed mines and FPV drones.

Russians dropped off several smaller infantry groups in the settlements they drove past. The Russian plan was for these groups to provide an all-around defense and secure the road for additional reinforcements to pass through in the future. However, these groups were left vulnerable without support after the mechanized forces were destroyed. Meanwhile, Ukrainians had saved their combat power by not engaging the Russian assault outright and were in a much stronger position in the forests and on top of the hills.

As Russians did not have enough soldiers to cover the settlements completely, Ukrainians rapidly moved into the gaps and encircled the Russian soldiers stuck in the settlements. Russians realized the disaster unfolding and sent several armored vehicles to break through to the encircled soldiers.

This time, Ukrainians did not allow the Russians to pass through, as geolocated footage shows several Russian armored vehicles being destroyed by Ukrainian defenders. Russian military analysts later confirmed that no reinforcements were able to break through to their soldiers and that these groups had been fully cut off for days, relying solely on supplies dropped from drones.

Russians increased the pressure on the Ukrainian western flank to salvage the situation and turn the tide of the battle, launching five waves of mechanized assaults on Novoivanovka in only one day. Here is where Ukrainians inflicted massive casualties on Russian forces, destroying 18 out of 29 Russian armored vehicles in the process.

Much, much more at the link including maps.

Ukraine’s Kursk incursion exposed Russia’s weaknesses, forcing it to deploy troops, seek North Korean help, and bomb its own settlements—yet Ukrainians still hold territory.

Here’s how it happened.

WATCH: youtu.be/QZ_9NQj96qA

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— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) November 14, 2024 at 9:08 AM

Here’s the full video:

Rivnopol, Donetsk Oblast:

Ukrainian Unmanned Aerial Systems Forces held back massive Russian assault near Rivnopil in Donetsk Oblast

Located within Vremyevsky ledge, Rivnopil serves as a critical point for controlling logistics & military movements in the area
📹 operativnoZSU

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 6:10 PM

Kurakhove:

☠️💥🔥 Unsuccessful Russian attack near Kurakhove, – 79th Brigade

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 7:05 AM

The Pokrovsk direction:

🇺🇦🇺🇸 Bradley in Pokrovsk direction is blown up by an anti-tank mine, but continues to fire at Russian positions

🙏 When trying to leave the battlefield, Bradley ran into another TM-62, the crew survived and left the IFV.

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) November 14, 2024 at 8:41 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 995: Odesa Under the GunPost + Comments (19)

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