In Captivity, It’s Not Just Years That Matter – Every Single Day Counts – Address by the President

3 November 2024 – 23:02

Dear Ukrainians!

Today I would like to address our partners on one of the fundamental elements of peace.

Ukraine always rejoices when we manage to bring our people back from Russian captivity. To bring them back home. Warriors and civilians. It is extremely difficult, but we are doing everything to make the exchanges happen.

But the hardest part isn’t bringing adults home – it’s bringing back the children. Young Ukrainians taken from their families. Kids who have been taken from our temporarily occupied territories to Russia. And whom Russia is trying to hide.

No one can say for certain today exactly how many there are, but we know there are tens of thousands.

These are both very young children and teenagers. Those who have relatives in Ukraine. And those whose relatives, tragically, were killed by Russian strikes.

Sometimes, luckily, children manage to reach out themselves – to volunteers, human rights defenders, or relatives back in Ukraine. But in most cases, Russians deprive them of any means of communication, seize and destroy the children’s documents, and place them in Russian families of strangers. In captivity, it’s not just years that matter – every single day counts. And so does every effort that helps free our people. This week, Canada hosted a conference on the point of the Peace Formula dedicated to this very task of ours – bringing home all Ukrainian captives, all our deported and abducted Ukrainians. More than 70 countries and international organizations participated. There’s full support for our people, our country, and our mission. Every prisoner exchange is an achievement. Every child who returns home to Ukraine is a reason for happiness. But we must bring everyone back. Everyone. Our Bring Kids Back UA initiative is in progress. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the Vatican – acting as mediator countries – are together with us in this effort, along with many other nations.

We want true peace for Ukraine – for our land and for all our people. This is only fair. It is fair to bring home everyone torn away from their home by war. Peace must be lasting.

I thank everyone who helps Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

It was their last goodbye.

Vitaly Drachenko, died.
He was 26 years old.

video:futsal_vmtg
Source: online_vinn pic.twitter.com/dm1MDUKC0y

— Oriannalyla 🇺🇦 (@Lyla_lilas) November 3, 2024

🕯Borys, 15, was killed in his room by a Russian guided bomb in #Kharkiv on 30 October 2024. Rescuers searched for his body under the rubble of the building for about 15 hours.

Russians also killed Mark, an 11-year-old boy, and doctors are now struggling to save his mother… pic.twitter.com/EqPFSLMiU9

— Denys from Kharkiv (@GlushkoDenys) November 1, 2024

🕯Borys, 15, was killed in his room by a Russian guided bomb in #Kharkiv on 30 October 2024. Rescuers searched for his body under the rubble of the building for about 15 hours.

Russians also killed Mark, an 11-year-old boy, and doctors are now struggling to save his mother Tetiana’s life in intensive care.

According to the Children of War portal, 585 Ukrainian children have been killed since the beginning of the Russian invasion

“He is all I have. He is my life, my star.”

An FPV drone hit a military car during a combat mission in Donetsk region – Ukrainian Defender Anton was wounded. His arm was amputated and the bones of his leg were crushed.

Anton’s family came to support him.

📹: Suspilne pic.twitter.com/oqhcO7SeIB

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 3, 2024

10000% true.

Many people simply don’t realize how gigantic is the monster that’s trying to eat Ukraine alive, and even more people who are now ridiculing Ukraine’s dramatic fight would not stand an hour in Ukraine’s shoes. https://t.co/hijupKIicZ

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) November 3, 2024

With North Korean troops now getting located in vicinity to the frontlines, the pressing question is whether Pyongyang will send more. Ukraine effectively finds itself fighting two nations, while the West sidesteps the issue, downplaying its significance to avoid a need to react.

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 3, 2024

For want of a nail!

Moldova:

Almost all the votes counted in Moldova.

President Sandu has 54,35% of the votes. https://t.co/1RrYMLrocr pic.twitter.com/pBfNrFzaS8

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 3, 2024

The US:

A Russian disinformation operation has created over 300 fake videos impersonating more than 50 major news organisations this year.

Ahead of the US election, the operation is attempting to sow division, claim the vote will be rigged and depict the US as a country near collapse. https://t.co/yhBz3T3YVg pic.twitter.com/QHmn3tpx09

— Shayan Sardarizadeh (@Shayan86) November 3, 2024

Kharkiv:

Russia struck supermarket in Kharkiv, injuring at least 4 people pic.twitter.com/GiX2ZZRb3c

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 3, 2024

The glide bomb attack about an hour or so ago was the third attack today:

I’ve heard four explosions in Kharkiv during the last couple of minutes. It is the second attack tonight. I’m hiding in the bathroom and just hoping it’s over 😞

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 3, 2024

Kharkiv was fortunate tonight as a russian glide bomb landed in a forested area within the city, causing limited damage and no casualties.

The suburbs, however, were not as lucky, suffering damage to households, but thankfully, no victims were reported so far.

The video… pic.twitter.com/DmZBk4hJ85

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 3, 2024

Liptsy, Kharkiv Oblast:

Liptsy in the Kharkiv region is yet another town being reduced to rubble by russia.

This is how it looks like after half a year of fighting pic.twitter.com/Wav8jNiA1l

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 3, 2024

Kharkiv Oblast:

Destruction of the russian armored equipment in the Kharkiv region.
🇺🇦 drones do their job well.

📹: 92nd Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/7zQRzyEbXS

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 3, 2024

Kyiv:

Does anyone even notice daily Russian attacks on Ukrainian civilian infrastructure? Institute of Journalism in Kyiv has to move classes online because all the windows got blown out pic.twitter.com/7MMIGjisjH

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 3, 2024

Kostiantynivka:

Police evacuated three children and their mother from Kostiantynivka, shelled by the Russian army.

The youngest ones – brother and sister – are only three years old. The eldest, 13-year-old Dmytro, said he always carries a tourniquet with him and says he can help himself if… pic.twitter.com/P8JCeQHZ4C

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 2, 2024

Police evacuated three children and their mother from Kostiantynivka, shelled by the Russian army.

The youngest ones – brother and sister – are only three years old. The eldest, 13-year-old Dmytro, said he always carries a tourniquet with him and says he can help himself if necessary. Russian shells have already landed near his house.

📹: National Police of Ukraine

The Siversk front:

Today, November 2, 2024. 10th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian assault on the Siversk front:

“Our defenders successfully repelled a massive Russian attack on the position of the 10th Brigade. The enemy used 22 units of armored vehicles (7 tanks, 13 BMP, 2 MT-LB) and about 120… pic.twitter.com/odood7Njlo

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2024

Today, November 2, 2024. 10th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian assault on the Siversk front:

“Our defenders successfully repelled a massive Russian attack on the position of the 10th Brigade. The enemy used 22 units of armored vehicles (7 tanks, 13 BMP, 2 MT-LB) and about 120 infantry for assault operations.

Thanks to the coordinated work of our fighters, ATGMs, reconnaissance and drones, the approach of the enemy was detected in time, and Russian assault groups were stopped on the approaches to the positions. As a result of the battle, 6 tanks and 9 BMPs were destroyed, the enemy suffered losses in manpower: 19 were eliminated, 23 were wounded.”

https://t.me/edelweiss10tg/1464

The southern front, Donetsk Oblast:

Two months ago I wrote about the threat of the collapse of the entire southern front in the Donetsk region – now this is already a reality.

After our loss of Vugledar and Selydove, the Russians continue to successfully use the “bag” tactics, bypassing our positions on three…

— Stanislav Aseyev (@AseyevStanislav) November 3, 2024

Two months ago I wrote about the threat of the collapse of the entire southern front in the Donetsk region – now this is already a reality.

After our loss of Vugledar and Selydove, the Russians continue to successfully use the “bag” tactics, bypassing our positions on three sides and leaving a narrow “throat” for retreat. As a result, even in combat-ready units, encirclement panic often begins, which leads to the withdrawal of troops.

The last large city in the south before Pokrovsk remains Kurakhove, the question of storming which comes down to this month.

The answer to this situation cannot be to mobilize more people. Without a clear answer about the period of service and quality of training, the recruits will be as demoralized and ineffective as the current battle-weary infantry.

The Kurakhove front, Donetsk Oblast:

A new report from Kriegsforscher:

03.11.24

Photos from Ukrainian paratroopers from 79 brigade (we help them) from Kurakhove direction. Burning Russian MTLB.

This brigade is under massive enemy push since October 23. Right now the situation is close to critical because of the flanks of this brigade 🧵

In front of 79 brigade there is 20 division. And here it’s very unusual structure:

– 10 tank regiment;
– SPR;
– 1219 infantry regiment;
– 255 mechanised regiment;
– 33 mechanised regiment;
– 242 mechanised regiment;
– 57 mechanised regiment. 

Divisions from SMD received a lot of new BMP-3 from the factories. Due to the info from a company commander from 79 airborne brigade, Russians used BMP-3 and modernised BMP-2 for almost 3 months.

Right now they use «Tigers» and MTLBs (firstly for a long time):

And while we loose so much ground in Donetsk area I am asking myself what I am doing in Kursk area?

Since the first day of operation I was strongly against it. My opinion hasn’t changed.

Destroyed BMP-3:

I remember how ironically Ukrainians (especially) have been asking those people who were against this operation «how it’s going?» meaning that it appeared as successful movements (it is).

But I have a question too: how it’s going now? Especially in Donetsk area?

Sure, you might be supportive or negative as to that operation. I accept two points of view. I truly do.

But it’s very hard to accept and understand the advantage of being here in the fields of Kursk oblast while loosing cities with basements and full of cement. 

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. Here is some adjacent material.

Furry friends boost morale of our warriors on the battlefield.

📷: 93rd Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/NQFrLqJ0QB

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 3, 2024

In the aftermath of a recent missile strike on Kharkiv, rescuers discovered and saved a cat trapped in the rubble of a destroyed building. The frightened feline was patiently waiting for help when firefighters found and rescued it🐱 pic.twitter.com/ZokgcA3m3h

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 3, 2024

Open thread!

In October, More Than 2,000 “Shahed” Drones Were Used Against Ukraine, Literally, Every Single Day – Address by the President

2 November 2024 – 20:38

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, first and foremost, our gratitude goes to our warriors. To all those who defend Ukraine from the daily attacks of “Shahed” drones and missiles. Russia is gradually escalating this activity. And, sadly, it is still able to use Western components for this.

In October, more than 2,000 “Shahed” drones were used against Ukraine, against our people. Literally, every single day. This number of “Shahed” drones means more than 170,000 components that should have been blocked from being supplied to Russia. Microchips, microcontrollers, processors, and lots of different parts without which this terror would simply be impossible.

All this is supplied to Russia from abroad. And sadly, including from companies in China, Europe, America – lots of micro-contributions to the constant Russian terror. And this, again and again, brings the world back to the need to work much harder to control the export of special components and resources. To prevent Russia from circumventing the sanctions that have long been imposed on Russia for this war.

As with “Shahed” drones – the same applies to Russian missiles. They all have components from other countries. Fighting against Russian strikes means, among other things, fighting for the power of sanctions against Russia. Sanctions must be increased; they must be effective. And every scheme to circumvent sanctions is a crime against people and the world. It is precisely such schemes that allow Russia to help build the strength of the Iranian and North Korean regimes. This is a global threat. And only global, special pressure can overcome it.

Today I would like to commend our military who have been the most effective in countering the “Shahed” drones over these very weeks. Mobile firing group “Master” of the 35th separate marine brigade, mobile firing groups “Uzhyk” and “Sherkhan” of the 59th separate motorized infantry brigade, mobile firing group 494 of the 14th radio engineering brigade named after Bohdan Khmelnytskyi, as well as mobile firing groups 513 and 631 of the 636th separate anti-aircraft machine gun battalion of the Land Forces, and also mobile firing group number 9 of the 7th tactical aviation brigade. I thank all of you for your work, for your service; I thank everyone who defends Ukraine so effectively.

I spoke with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. He made a report on the frontline situation. The main directions: Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Lyman and all other directions. Toretsk direction as well. I thank all our warriors for their bravery! Every position we defend and every position we regain is important for the entire front, for all of us.

I am grateful to the warriors of the 79th separate airborne assault brigade – the guys are fighting in the Kurakhove direction. Also, other directions in the Donetsk region: the 38th separate marine brigade – well done! The 68th separate jaeger brigade – thank you, warriors! Orikhiv direction – I thank all the warriors of the 128th separate mountain assault brigade and the 141st separate infantry brigade. Also, Prydniprovskyi direction – the 124th and the 126th separate territorial defense brigades – thank you!

Glory to all who fight for Ukraine! To all who work for our state, for all our people! I thank everyone in the world who helps us to defend our right, Ukraine’s and every nation’s right to its own life!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Alexander Malkevich, the U.S.-sanctioned founder of a Russian troll factory who meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, was in Georgia during the election period and attended a ruling party campaign event.

The U.S. government is offering a $10 million reward for… pic.twitter.com/MUHmSBBKxt

— Katie Shoshiashvili (@KShoshiashvili) November 1, 2024

Alexander Malkevich, the U.S.-sanctioned founder of a Russian troll factory who meddled in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, was in Georgia during the election period and attended a ruling party campaign event.

The U.S. government is offering a $10 million reward for information that leads to the identification or location of Malkevich. Apparently, very recently, that location was Tbilisi.

We have seen Russian propaganda, coming from the ruling party, take over the entire Georgian pre and election information environment. It is becoming clear who was involved and how.

Georgian media reports that a wanted Russian propagandist and troll farm manager, Malkevich, had accreditation from the Georgian Central Election Commission during the elections. https://t.co/DKSXMmIgdo

— Katie Shoshiashvili (@KShoshiashvili) November 2, 2024

https://t.co/PniFoii8qq https://t.co/hRfkD5mGPU

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) November 2, 2024

The attack on sovereign country of #Moldova (elections tomorrow) is also ongoing. #Belarus #Georgia #Ukraine #Moldova are all targeted: Putin is rebuilding the USSR. https://t.co/MJYtgY7OOP

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) November 2, 2024

North Korea:

The western fear of escalation has reached such high levels, that the US feels the need to separately emphasize that North Korean soldiers fighting the Ukrainians are legitimate military targets.

Saying that out loud is almost comical. What would even be the alternative?… https://t.co/c8Y1GLGuvz

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) November 2, 2024

The western fear of escalation has reached such high levels, that the US feels the need to separately emphasize that North Korean soldiers fighting the Ukrainians are legitimate military targets.

Saying that out loud is almost comical. What would even be the alternative? Ukrainians shouldn’t shoot North Koreans at all? Of course they are legitimate targets, why the prefix “make no mistake” – has there been disagreements over this?

With such statements, it’s guaranteed that Russia will dare to raise the stakes in the future as well.

Putin isn’t interested in words. The only effective response is one that actually hurts the Russians. Otherwise the message sent to the enemy is that “we’re ok with what you’re doing, please continue.”

Blinken said the North Korean troops are a sign of Russia’s weakness.

Labeling the current development primarily as just weakness is a dangerous and wrong analysis that will lead to incorrect conclusions about the nature of the situation. My take:https://t.co/SmB3IQZrZp

— Emil Kastehelmi (@emilkastehelmi) November 2, 2024

Russia’s greatest battlefield advantage right now is in manpower, and thousands of additional North Korean infantry in Kursk, even without combat experience and coordination problems, would compound that advantage. Over the past three months, Russia has been advancing at a faster… https://t.co/0wowSj4siy

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) November 2, 2024

There are public statements to back this up, this time from the GUR.

This isn’t the only reason, there’s more data, but overall, it corroborates our earlier statement. https://t.co/HEGJAHmdG0

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 2, 2024

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

Ukraine’s military intel directorate @DI_Ukraine says latest info indicates Russia has armed the North Korean troops in Kursk with 60mm mortars, AK-12 assault rifles, RPK/PKM machine guns, SVD/SVCh sniper rifles, Feniks anti-tank guided missiles, and RPG-7 shoulder-launched anti-tank rocket launchers.
US and Ukraine assessed Thursday that around 8,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk and about 50km from the Ukrainian border, preparing to fight within “days.”

https://ft.com/content/9cf42928-f9bd-4f95-b0af-3a1b8cd90fa4

From The Financial Times:

Washington and Kyiv have warned North Korean troops are expected to enter combat alongside Russia’s army in the coming days, in what would be the first foray by a foreign military into the war launched by Moscow.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Thursday raised the alarm over Moscow’s deepening military collaboration with Pyongyang, saying his army was likely to face North Korean troops in the western Russian region of Kursk in “days, not months”.

The president’s comments were followed by a stark warning from US secretary of state Antony Blinken and US defence secretary Lloyd Austin, who said that as many as 8,000 North Korean troops had been deployed to the Kursk region.

The US had not seen the troops “deploy into combat against Ukrainian forces but we would expect that to happen in the coming days”, Blinken said, speaking alongside Austin and their counterparts from South Korea after a meeting at the state department.

Zelenskyy said at least 3,000 North Koreans were at a “training camp” in the Russian region of Kursk, where his troops are occupying some 600 sq km of land taken during a surprise incursion in August.

Washington’s assessment added fresh detail to recently disclosed US intelligence indicating that about 10,000 North Korean troops were in Russia. Zelenskyy and Ukrainian intelligence officials have said upwards of 12,000 North Koreans were in the country, including several hundred special forces, 500 officers and three generals.

Kyiv’s ambassador to the UN, Sergiy Kyslytsya, told a meeting of the Security Council on Wednesday that Ukraine had identified the generals as Colonel General Kim Young Bok, deputy chief of the general staff for special forces operations; Colonel General Lee Chang Ho, deputy chief of the general staff and head of the reconnaissance directorate; and Major General Shin Geum Cheol, head of the main operational directorate.

More at the link.

The US:

From Tymofiy Mylovanov, President of the Kyiv School of Economics:

I’m beyond outraged by Russia’s advances in Ukraine and the West’s utterly weak—or even nonexistent—response.

Many argue that the Biden administration has been strong on Ukraine, but in fact their policies and actions have been nothing short of terrible. Here’s the evidence 1/ 

1. There has been “zero” response to North Korean troops in Russia prepared to fight Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine has been prohibited to strike North Koreans by the US until they come on Ukraine soil. Some say this is a sign of the West’s defeat 2/

There is a double standard. The US doesn’t impose restrictions on Israel. The US supplied weapons can be used by Israel any way it sees it fit. Apparently, the escalation is not an argument there either 3/ 

2. Russia has escalated attacks on Ukrainian cities, with 2000 Shahed drones in October up by 40% from September. This is 66 drones every day. 3/

Russia has substantively intensified its attacks the last weeks. What is the US response? None. The administration talks about Russian losses being unsustainable. But what about Ukrainians? 4/

So, instead of responding in kind and increasing support, the US has supplied only 10% of defense aid authorized by the Congress this year 5/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

3. It is the US that opposes admitting Ukraine to NATO, instead of showing leadership and convincing other opposing nations 6/ 

Most amazingly, there is still talk in Washington and other western capitals about “de-escalation” or “not escalating further”. It is Russia that is escalating in response to weakness of the West and, specifically, the US administration 7X

Fascinating that there are some 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia and ‘leaders’ in the West are concerned that helping Ukraine target Russian positions in Russia that launch attacks against Ukrainian civilians would be escalatory and turn Western countries into co-combatants.…

— Sir John Chipman IISS (@chipmanj) November 2, 2024

Fascinating that there are some 10,000 North Korean troops in Russia and ‘leaders’ in the West are concerned that helping Ukraine target Russian positions in Russia that launch attacks against Ukrainian civilians would be escalatory and turn Western countries into co-combatants. Russia can escalate with North Korean and Iranian help to its cold heart’s content, but in the European theatre, whose stability is a ‘core interest’ of the West, it is solemnly declared that NATO states should not get directly involved. Middle East and Asian bad actors have unilaterally obtained for themselves a multiple entry visa to Europe with no restrictions to kill Ukrainians. Western leaders cry foul but keep long range attack missiles and other key capability on the sidelines. The political-military muscle memory of the Cold War has so dramatically dissipated that strategic arthritis has set in to the detriment of Europe’s security.

But I als remember people making an argument that the Biden administration will escalate and strengthen its response to Russia once Biden is not a candidate anymore

Let’s wait for a week and see who wins and what their response will be. But the U.S. credibility is severely…

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 2, 2024

But I als remember people making an argument that the Biden administration will escalate and strengthen its response to Russia once Biden is not a candidate anymore

Let’s wait for a week and see who wins and what their response will be. But the U.S. credibility is severely damaged

So true! And so unfair. But there is nothing one can do about it.

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) November 2, 2024

I read the willingness to contemplate Trumpian turn a reflection of just how bad things have got here — rather than a sober reflection of how his policies would affect Ukraine. But that strand of opinion is real enough.

— Oliver Carroll (@olliecarroll) November 2, 2024

Brussels:

At an event in Brussels focused on the rehabilitation of Ukrainian soldiers, participants were reportedly targeted in a gas poisoning attempt.

After a film screening about the war in Ukraine, attendees noticed a strange smell and signs of poisoning. Event organizers stated that… pic.twitter.com/FVPuGYea51

— KyivPost (@KyivPost) November 2, 2024

At an event in Brussels focused on the rehabilitation of Ukrainian soldiers, participants were reportedly targeted in a gas poisoning attempt.

After a film screening about the war in Ukraine, attendees noticed a strange smell and signs of poisoning. Event organizers stated that this was yet another provocation by Russia. Several people were hospitalized. An investigation is ongoing.

We have a term for these types of things: acts of war.

The Siversk front:

Today, November 2, 2024. 10th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian assault on the Siversk front:

“Our defenders successfully repelled a massive Russian attack on the position of the 10th Brigade. The enemy used 22 units of armored vehicles (7 tanks, 13 BMP, 2 MT-LB) and about 120… pic.twitter.com/odood7Njlo

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2024

Today, November 2, 2024. 10th Brigade of Ukraine repels Russian assault on the Siversk front:

“Our defenders successfully repelled a massive Russian attack on the position of the 10th Brigade. The enemy used 22 units of armored vehicles (7 tanks, 13 BMP, 2 MT-LB) and about 120 infantry for assault operations.

Thanks to the coordinated work of our fighters, ATGMs, reconnaissance and drones, the approach of the enemy was detected in time, and Russian assault groups were stopped on the approaches to the positions. As a result of the battle, 6 tanks and 9 BMPs were destroyed, the enemy suffered losses in manpower: 19 were eliminated, 23 were wounded.”

https://t.me/edelweiss10tg/1464

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Heavy night bomber drone of the “NEMESIS” unit bombards Russian OSA air defence system. Luhansk region. https://t.co/GMAZFYKouO https://t.co/kHT5sjeqpk pic.twitter.com/GmOEX1sjv1

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) November 2, 2024

Russian occupied Crimea:

Russian Podlet radar station was targeted a week ago in Crimea with a help of a drone:

“On 23.10.2024, a strike was carried out on the 48Ya6-K1 Podlet radar station in the area of ​​Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea.

The strike was carried out using UAV.

A week later, the radar station… pic.twitter.com/8JyGuXmusa

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 31, 2024

Russian Podlet radar station was targeted a week ago in Crimea with a help of a drone:

“On 23.10.2024, a strike was carried out on the 48Ya6-K1 Podlet radar station in the area of ​​Cape Tarkhankut, Crimea.

The strike was carried out using UAV.

A week later, the radar station is still awaiting evacuation for further repairs.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/613

Donetsk Oblast:

Here’s a deep dive into the Russian offensive in southern Donetsk by Emil Kastelhelmi of the Blackbird Group:

The Russians recently launched a large offensive in eastern and southern Donetsk, on a 70 kilometers wide front.

The attack has breached Ukrainian defences in just a few days in many areas, and there can be some dangerous developments ahead, which I’ll discuss in this thread. 1/

The operation has two main focus areas, the Selydove-Kurakhivka area and the southern direction, where the enemy is currently advancing in the area between Shakhtarske and Bohoyavlenka. Both directions have their own problems and threats. 2/

In a short timeframe, Ukraine has very likely lost Selydove (over 21 000 pre-invasion residents), which is the largest city Russia has captured since the fall of Avdiivka. Simultaneously Russians also captured Hirnyk (10 000 pre-invasion residents). 3/

The Russians are now continuing east, and are likely trying to create an encirclement threat to force the Ukrainians to retreat from Kurakhivka. If they’re able to advance to the Kurakhivske reservoir, it would provide them with good starting points for further operations. 4/ 

In the southern direction, the Russians advanced 10 kilometers in just a few days. They now control at least most of Shakhtarske and Novoukrainka, and likely have complete control of Bohoyavleka. One could say that Ukraine can afford losing ground here, but I disagree. 5/

Losing much more ground here can have severe implications. The issues are clear when we look at the Ukrainian level of preparedness in the area. The Russians are currently flanking the last fortified main defensive positions in Novoukrainka, There’s not much beyond them. 6/

There are some field fortifications in the treelines, which we haven’t been able to map, but larger prepared positions don’t seem to exist, at least in sufficient numbers. The situation also doesn’t enable Ukrainians to start quickly digging more in the immediate proximity. 7/ 

The Russian pace of advance and the aerial capabilities likely won’t allow Ukraine to bring construction equipment very close to the front, at least without high losses for the Ukrainians. There also aren’t any very significant natural obstacles in the area, it’s mostly flat. 8/ 

In the big picture, these are the most strongly fortified and most defendable areas with the best natural obstacles. However, in the worst case scenarios the Russians are able to bypass and flank them by taking advantage of the current weak spots in the Ukrainian defence. 9/

Scenario 1:

A possible goal for Russia. After reaching the Kurakhivka reservoir, the Russians would continue their advance towards the town of Andriivka. Advancing on the ridgeline would mostly nullify its defensive advantages. 10/

Simultaneously, the southern push would continue to make progress through the unfortified fields, also towards Andriivka. This development could force the Ukrainian defenders out of the heavily fortified Kurakhove area, as the supply lines would be threatened. 11/ 

This would require significant forces and continuous success for the Russians. However, if they could pull off this maneuver, they could avoid an expensive grind against the vast trench networks and difficult ridgelines in the Kurakhove-Andriivka area. 12/ 

Scenario 2:

This would include the same idea, but on a smaller scale. The pincers would try to cut the defenders off at the nearest possible point, which would be Dachne. Despite losing Kurakhove, the defenders could continue fighting in more favourable positions. 13/

At the moment the Russians are struggling to expand their breach into a breakthrough. Even though the Ukrainians are losing many square kilometers, the defence hasn’t crumbled into chaos, and nothing extremely crucial has been lost. 14/ 

It’s very well possible that the Ukrainians are able to transfer reserves to the area and grind down the mechanized assaults before either of the aforementioned worst case scenarios materialize. However, if current trends continue, Ukraine could lose Kurakhove before 2025. 15/ 

In October, the Russians succeeded in occupying relatively large areas. According to our calculations, likely more Ukrainian land has been captured than in any other single month since the summer of 2022. In addition, Russia has recaptured some territories in Kursk. 16/ 

For reference, in dark red we see the assessed Russian-controlled area in the beginning of August 2024, before the Ukrainian Kursk offensive. The light red depicts areas captured after the Kursk operation in the eastern front. 17/

The overall situation is very concerning, and the Ukrainians are stretched thin. The coming winter will likely be difficult.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup will continue to monitor and analyze the situation. 18/18

The War in UkraineMap depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Grouphttps://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194

Kharkiv:

Deadly fishing, anyone?

Fishermen in Kharkiv region have discovered a dangerous remote-controlled mine in a local pond. Local authorities have warned residents to exercise extreme caution, as unexploded ordnance remains a significant threat in the region.

Ukraine is now the… pic.twitter.com/wGdTytl4XG

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 2, 2024

Deadly fishing, anyone?

Fishermen in Kharkiv region have discovered a dangerous remote-controlled mine in a local pond. Local authorities have warned residents to exercise extreme caution, as unexploded ordnance remains a significant threat in the region.

Ukraine is now the most mined country in the world. This war will continue to kill our people for generations after it ends. Please support demining efforts.

Russian occupied Mariupol:

⚡️ In temporarily occupied Mariupol, over 200 children were forced to take an “oath of allegiance” to Russia.

Occupation authorities forced students at a branch of the Nakhimov school to pledge an oath of allegiance to the “motherland.” pic.twitter.com/VgSiAWbIJc

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) November 2, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.

Little pic.twitter.com/XlOtXQLOeB

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) November 1, 2024

Dog and tanks pic.twitter.com/guwGHKvrBp

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) November 1, 2024

Open thread!