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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

Seems like a complicated subject, have you tried yelling at it?

Fight them, without becoming them!

Their shamelessness is their super power.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

A tremendous foreign policy asset… to all of our adversaries.

Their freedom requires your slavery.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

All hail the time of the bunny!

rich, arrogant assholes who equate luck with genius

Fear and negativity are contagious, but so is courage!

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

They punch you in the face and then start crying because their fist hurts.

Petty moves from a petty man.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Museums are not America’s attic for its racist shit.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Saturday Evening Open Thread: Once Again, TFG Shoots Himself in the Foot

by Anne Laurie|  November 2, 20245:50 pm| 263 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, Trumpery

If you claim to be a leader in any way—political leader, thought-leader, business leader, religious leader—and you don’t stand up and say clearly that America must keep this man away from power, then you’re no kind of leader at all. https://t.co/rgoQMYGPC5

— Sarah Longwell (@SarahLongwell25) November 1, 2024

You’d think someone as physically cowardly as TFG would know better than to threaten a Cheney with guns, but senile disinhibition is a terrible affliction. It is perhaps a comfort for some of those suspicious of Cheney’s intentions in a Harris / Walz adminstration that this incident pretty clearly sets her up as head of the post-Trump Republican party…

Upon arrival in Wisconsin, VP Harris said that Trump’s comments about training rifles on Liz Cheney "must be disqualifying.” Trump, she added, is "out for revenge” as his “rhetoric has grown more extreme” in the final days of the campaign. pic.twitter.com/rIm9so1X4A

— Jennifer Epstein (@jeneps) November 1, 2024

Liz Cheney responded to Donald Trump’s suggestion that she should stand before a firing squad: “This is how dictators destroy free nations." https://t.co/tPq17cQYZJ

— POLITICO (@politico) November 1, 2024

“Picking fly specks out of pepper” was one of my Irish granny’s favorite insults for juvenile rules-lawyers…

Picking gnat shit out of pepper. He routinely calls for his enemies to have violence visited upon them and jokes/celebrates when it happens like 1/6 and Paul Pelosi.

And there isn't a single direct US military action the last 25 years that Cheney supported but Trump didn't. https://t.co/esPtder8MX

— zeddy (@Zeddary) November 1, 2024

Handy trick with violent Trump rhetoric for journalists: if Joe Schmoe said it verbatim but about Trump, would the Secret Service pay him a visit?

— zeddy (@Zeddary) November 1, 2024

show full post on front page

Trump’s doubled down, of course…

Liz is no spring chicken herself, but I’m reasonably sure she could just give him a light shove and his hip would explode. https://t.co/KuNnRairF6

— Jean-Michel Connard ??? (@torriangray) November 1, 2024

TRUMP: My political opponents should face a firing squad.

HARRIS: Here’s my sixteen-point plan to directly target middle class families and help them succeed.

NEW YORK TIMES: Both candidates trade barbs in the final week of the race.

— Chris Jackson (@ChrisCJackson) November 1, 2024

“No, no, you’re overreacting, the guy who regularly calls for executions and extrajudicial punishments of his enemies deserves the benefit of the doubt here when he talks about one of his opponents staring down nine rifles” -the people who spent several days on Apostrophegate

— Patrick Dillon (@mpdillon) November 1, 2024

Is it helpful to threaten to put your opponents in front of a firing squad 4 days before the election?

— PChill708 (@PChill708) November 1, 2024

Speaking of Georgia:

My sister is Chairperson of Forsyth County Georgia Republicans for Harris Organization. In order to join, you must have voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. She currently has 1,345 members. Since the Liz Cheney comment last night, over 700 more women joined.…

— CB— (@ConservBlue2020) November 1, 2024

My sister is Chairperson of Forsyth County Georgia Republicans for Harris Organization. In order to join, you must have voted for Trump in 2016 and 2020. She currently has 1,345 members. Since the Liz Cheney comment last night, over 700 more women joined. They’re all voting on Tuesday.

Trumps Cheney comment is getting a similar reaction with women as his comment about calling Puerto Rico a "garbage island" did with Latinos.

The only 2 white women in my neighborhood who had Trump signs in their yard took them down this morning.

— Mike (@MikeCishere) November 1, 2024

Saturday Evening Open Thread: Once Again, TFG Shoots Himself in the FootPost + Comments (263)

I Voted Stickers, Creative Style? (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  November 2, 20241:57 pm| 204 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

This is from NYC.  I think that’s some kind of bird trick or treating?

Anyone else get any cool stickers?  Send me a pic if you want to share.

FUTURE SO BRIGHT WE’RE GONNA NEED SHADES!

h/t Scout211

I Voted Stickers, Creative Style? (Open Thread)Post + Comments (204)

Trump Goes Down on His Microphone

by @heymistermix.com|  November 2, 202412:03 pm| 175 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Trump Goes Down on His Microphone

Since Trump’s whole campaign, as well as most of the DC press covering it, has the mentality and instincts of the 90s, what better site to screenshot for this breaking news story.  I’m not linking — anyone perverse enough to want to see this can google it for themselves.

I was at the gym yesterday and had to LOL at all the poll noise noising on CNN.  The View was also on another TV, and they had a mixed review for this ad, featuring Julia Roberts narrating a scene of two women voting for Harris in defiance of their doofus Trumper husbands.  Just get a divorce already, Jesus, was my reaction, but I’m obviously not the audience for this ad.  (Some of the View concern trollers / anti-Trump Republicans thought it was condescending and poorly acted, but, like me, they’re not the audience, either.)

I see that Bette Midler is going after Nate Silver on Twitter because she’s apparently got a poll addiction and doesn’t like what Nate’s algorithm is doing.  The only utility of public polls at this point in the election is to give Trump some ammo to say he shoulda won when he loses.  It’s pointless to look at them when a good deal of the actual polling (i.e., voting) has already been done.

This week, I was moving into a new short-term rental, and was exceptionally busy with the four-letter scourge that starts with “w” and ends with “ork”, but at least that meant that I didn’t read all my usual political news, which was such a blessing that I’m thinking of buying a “blessed” t-shirt and matching coffee mug.

Trump Goes Down on His MicrophonePost + Comments (175)

Have you given it your all? Have you done everything you can?

by WaterGirl|  November 2, 202410:27 am| 120 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Do you look or feel like this?

And not from fretting, or from reading social media.  If so, thank you for everything you have done.

How about the rest of you?  Is there anything else you can do?  A canvass shift.  Phone calls for ballot curing.  Text banking.

Having a conversation with a neighbor.  Sharing something compelling with someone who is wobbly. Taking food to a campaign office.

Anything?

NO REGRETS.

Let’s keep this thread about what you have done, what you are doing, and opportunities for folks who want to do…

Just. One. More. Thing.

Have you given it your all? Have you done everything you can?Post + Comments (120)

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Encouragement, Endorsements, & Otherwise

by Anne Laurie|  November 2, 20248:27 am| 141 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!

On my way to Philly to do whatever I can on this last weekend of the campaign… #bydhttmwfi#Harris_Walz2024 #ifyoustillhaveone#VoteYourConscience pic.twitter.com/SAO46I9e5R

— LeVar Burton (@levarburton) November 1, 2024


(#bydhttmwfi = But you don’t have to take my word for it)

Democrats are noticeably leaning on their star-power advantage. They're calling on a diverse range of celebrities to endorse Kamala Harris, invigorate audiences and, they hope, spur people to head to the ballot box. pic.twitter.com/VDLbrNG5SA

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 30, 2024

Beyonce, Kamala Harris fans boost campaign with 'Beyhive for Kamala' https://t.co/77cF8ynpl0

— Candidly Tiff ???? (@tify330) October 30, 2024

“All of our children deserve a president who will inspire them to learn from history, not a tyrant who will try to erase it,” Randle said.”https://t.co/uBS7Ms6xOI

— philip lewis (@Phil_Lewis_) November 1, 2024

The ground game is insane. I’ve never seen anything like it. And remember, the Dems had basically no ground game in 2020 due to Covid. Harris is gonna win. https://t.co/XE9EYDK7Kw

— Jean-Michel Connard ??? (@torriangray) November 1, 2024

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Harris campaign clearly views Madison Square Garden rally as a turning point among late-breaking undecided voters, in ways that's giving them confidence in the final days. “It really broke through," senior campaign official says. "It’s helped gel their feeling about this race.”

— Matt Viser (@mviser) November 1, 2024

I swear to God the final Wall Street Journal editorial making case for Trump includes this line.

“Mr Trump was too undisciplined, and his attention span too short, to stay on message much less stage a coup.”

Too erratic to coup! Trump 2024!

— Tim Miller (@Timodc) November 1, 2024

They're calling it the most effective Get-Out-the-Vote message in history. pic.twitter.com/GcYoqgssL5

— Cody Johnston (@drmistercody) November 1, 2024


 
And if you like a little schadenfreude with your weekend breakfast…

Again: early voting numbers and demographics look promising, but ignore all the noise.

We need a landslide. https://t.co/GrAJYR2kts

— Angry Staffer ?? (@Angry_Staffer) November 1, 2024

Journamalistic botfly Tara Palmeri, at Puck — “Mylanta in Short Supply at Mar-A-Lago”:

We’re less than a week from Election Day, and the mood inside the Trump campaign has undergone yet another transformation. Last week, I reported on the preemptive but undeniably palpable sense of euphoria washing over Mar-a-Lago as data rolled in depicting early-voting surges in Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. But now, as the early results from Pennsylvania reveal an influx of first-time female voters who will likely break for Harris, a newfound anxiety is taking hold. While Trump continues to claim he has a massive lead, setting the stage to contest any unfavorable result, some in the Mar-a-Lago-sphere are starting to believe that his surge last week was two weeks premature.

Pennsylvania is obviously a must-win state for both campaigns… but it’s really crucial for Trump. While his inner circle feels confident about winning the Sunbelt, they recognize that they have a good chance of losing Michigan, where the gender gap is stark and students are coming out in record numbers. (A new CNN poll shows Harris up 5 points in the state.) So the situation in Pennsylvania—where women have outpaced men by 13 points in the early vote—has sent the campaign into a tailspin during the past two days.

Not unlike 2020, Trump and his allies are preemptively making outlandish and extreme assertions to lay the groundwork for a claim, if they don’t prevail, that the election was stolen. They’re also engaging in the early stages of election lawfare. “They’re going so crazy here,” said a campaign source. “Anyone who hears how rabid they are about this issue can’t walk away from this and think they feel comfortable about where they’re at in PA. They’re talking about criminal referrals. They want to find poll watchers who they feel are engaged in voter suppression so that they can refer criminal prosecutions.” (An R.N.C. spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.)…

As I reported two weeks ago, Trump has already zeroed in on Republican National Committee chairman Michael Whatley as his scapegoat if things go south. The lawsuits have also already begun—one of which they won in Bucks County, when they complained that a poll watcher had turned people away till Election Day because the lines were too long. (The judge ruled in their favor, extending the drop-off day for mail-in ballots to November 1.) Democrats, meanwhile, have sued over alleged ballot problems in Erie County, according to Politico.

And while Trump may want to blame Whatley and his “election integrity unit” for a loss, the campaign is also preparing to blame outside groups who were supposed to handle Trump’s ground game. Sure, figureheads like Kirk at Turning Point and Elon Musk at America PAC are firmly planted in Trump’s inner circle and would probably walk away unscathed. But the same can’t be said for Phil Cox and Generra Peck, who have essentially commandeered Musk’s America PAC and are seen as too closely aligned with Trumpworld’s collective enemy Ron DeSantis. “We’re solely focused on winning, and we’re not looking at anything else. That’s the only thing that matters,” said Trump spokesperson Steven Cheung…

LOL at Trump and his team *just realizing* running a fascist-anti-women-racist-dudebro campaign might’ve been a bad idea. #HarrisWalz2024 https://t.co/g6XbMSVk18

— Maya Contreras (@mayatcontreras) November 1, 2024

Saturday Morning Open Thread 34

(Jeff Danziger via GoComics.com)

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Encouragement, Endorsements, & OtherwisePost + Comments (141)

Friday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  November 1, 202410:02 pm| 67 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House", Open Threads

Had a busy day today doing prep work to head to Arizona next week. Went to get my car inspected because it is going to run out in February, got there for the inspection and discovered my registration had expired TODAY, 1 November. Drove to the DMV, got a two year registration, and because I was there with all my stuff (birth certificate, dd-214, etc. because I had my important shit folder for the inspection, decided to get a new federal license since my expires next year anyway. Got that done, went back to get my inspection, and turned out I did not need an inspection since they switched to two year inspections this year and my inspection does not run out until February 2026, but I needed new tires. I finagled and haggled for a while and got an ok deal on a pair of Michelin Defenders, which is all I like on this CRV, got them put on, and went home.

It’s like the universe knows when it is payday and managed to turn a 30 dollar inspection into a SHITLOAD more than that. Oh, well. This Honda CRV has been such a brilliant car and I have had to do SOOOO little maintenance on it, and I firmly believe that tires are something you should absolutely not skimp on, especially on these country roads and in advance of a cross country trek.

Adulting. When I taught freshmen in large lectures I used to tell them to enjoy themselves, because right now, unless they are one of the fortunate few, they will never be in a position where a higher percentage of their income can be designated for fun shit.

***

This also happened today:

Surprised how good his voice sounded.

***

Long time readers may know I am a big fan of Marc Maron, his comedy, his podcast, his general outlook, and him as a person. Here’s more confirmation he is a good guy, a post calling out the Joe Rogan’s, Andrew Schultz’s, Theo Vons, and Shane Gillis’s, and the young dudebro’s like them:

Friday Night Open Thread 21

Friday Night Open Thread 22

Love that guy.

***

I’m watching a show with Priyanka Chopra, Stanley Tucci, and one of Ned Stark’s kids, and it is pretty bad. But I am enjoying the hell out of it because it has lots of pretty people and it is not in any way challenging.

Shout at ya later.

Friday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (67)

War for Ukraine Day 982: Russia Double Tap Strikes Kharkiv, Attacks Odesa, Drone Strikes Sumy

by Adam L Silverman|  November 1, 20249:20 pm| 13 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Painting by NEIVANMADE. It has a white background an in the center are Soldiers in green doing air defense by firing at incoming Russian missiles in the upper right. The missiles are red and yellow. In the upper left, written in green, is the text: "SAVE THE BRAVEST PEOPLE IN THE WORLD!" Below the Soldiers, also written in green, is "SUPPORT FOR KHARKIV"

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is doing great. She’s started jumping up on the bed again! Thanks you for all the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Russia conducted a double tap strike on Kharkiv earlier today:

Russian forces launched a double strike on a police location in Kharkiv, killing one police officer and injuring 30 others, along with one rescue worker and nine civilians. pic.twitter.com/Z13TZSXKqG

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) November 1, 2024

Horrific russian double tap missile strike on Kharkiv today. One person died, and 40 got injured. pic.twitter.com/kxa4PGfTA4

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 1, 2024

Here’s the October 2024 Ukrainian air defense tally:

In October, russia launched a record number of strike UAVs at Ukraine with a total number of 2,023 UAVs.

Ukrainian air defenders destroyed 1,185 drones, while 738 were lost from radar. Additionally, 29 drones left the Ukrainian-controlled airspace.

Ukraine needs more air… pic.twitter.com/aUMSFdo1Td

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2024

In October, russia launched a record number of strike UAVs at Ukraine with a total number of 2,023 UAVs.

Ukrainian air defenders destroyed 1,185 drones, while 738 were lost from radar. Additionally, 29 drones left the Ukrainian-controlled airspace.

Ukraine needs more air defense to protect our people from russian terror.

The General Staff reported 2,000 strike drones in October. That means 170,000 foreign components in these drones: microchips, microcontrollers, processors, voltage regulators, transceivers… Without them, the Shaheds wouldn’t fly. Sanctions effectiveness is insufficient.…

— Vladyslav Vlasiuk 💙💛🇪🇺 (@vladvlas) November 1, 2024

The General Staff reported 2,000 strike drones in October. That means 170,000 foreign components in these drones: microchips, microcontrollers, processors, voltage regulators, transceivers… Without them, the Shaheds wouldn’t fly. Sanctions effectiveness is insufficient.

Manufacturers: American companies Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, CTS Electronic Components, Maxim Integrated; Swiss STMicroelectronics, U-Blox; Chinese Bixinda; Irish Taoglas…

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

First Thousands of North Korean Soldiers Are Not Far from Ukraine’s Border – Address by the President

1 November 2024 – 22:38

North Korea has tested a new ballistic missile. This occurred the day before. Record flight time and sufficient altitude. Yet the world is just watching. Watching as this threat grows.

North Korea has learned to make better artillery. This has already happened, thanks to cooperation with Moscow. It has also learned to make better missiles – this is already evident. Now, sadly, it will learn modern warfare. The first thousands of North Korean soldiers are not far from Ukraine’s border. Ukrainians will be forced to defend themselves against them. And the world will be watching again.

We have repeatedly said that such threats should not be given the time to grow. Russia should not be allowed to seek and find allies. No enemy of the free world should be given the time to grow.

What connects Pyongyang and Moscow? Only their ambition for warfare.

Now, we see every site where Russia is accumulating these North Korean soldiers on its territory – all their camps. We could strike preventively if we had the capability to hit with sufficient range. And it depends on our partners. Yet instead of providing the much-needed long-range capabilities, America is watching, Britain is watching, Germany is watching. Everyone is just waiting for the North Korean military to start targeting Ukrainians.

We know all the logistics between Russia and North Korea that help Russian aggression, and these logistics must be blocked. It depends, among other things, on powerful Asian states. It depends on China, which frequently talks about ending the war. Yet remains an observer. And while these words are being spoken, North Korean soldiers are heading to the front.

Everyone in the world who truly wants to prevent this Russian war against Ukraine from expanding and spreading beyond Europe to other regions of the world – everyone must do more than just watch. We must act. Words about the unacceptability of the escalation and expansion of the war must be matched by deeds.

North Korea’s involvement in this war in Europe is a threat to the entire world.

A threat that must be stopped.

Zelensky places blame for not being able to preemptively strike North Korean troops solely on Ukraine’s biggest partners: “We know where these North Korean troops are gathering in Russia. We could act preemptively if we had the means—long-range capability. Yet, America, the UK,… https://t.co/jveLmXoKBa

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 1, 2024

Zelensky places blame for not being able to preemptively strike North Korean troops solely on Ukraine’s biggest partners: “We know where these North Korean troops are gathering in Russia. We could act preemptively if we had the means—long-range capability. Yet, America, the UK, and Germany watch.”

Zelensky is right. The North Korean troops are 50km from the border, well within range of Western supplied missiles. https://t.co/Toibi8RFrI

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) November 1, 2024

After Russian strikes and shelling, and amid the emergency and critical situations the enemy creates against our country, our people can always count on help, no matter the circumstances.

I am grateful to each and every one of you who arrive at the scene after Russian attacks in… pic.twitter.com/jj7zB9cObl

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) November 1, 2024

After Russian strikes and shelling, and amid the emergency and critical situations the enemy creates against our country, our people can always count on help, no matter the circumstances.

I am grateful to each and every one of you who arrive at the scene after Russian attacks in all our regions, clear the rubble, extinguish fires, provide first aid, and – above all – ensure the rescue of our people.

The State Emergency Service, police, medical professionals, volunteers, and everyone involved in saving lives – Ukraine is proud of you.

🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸 https://t.co/G9iV1O6h98

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2024

Here’s the full text of Minister of Defense Umerov’s tweet:

I held a weekly call with 🇺🇸@SecDef Lloyd Austin. I am grateful to our American partners for their support of Ukraine in our fight for independence.

We discussed the current situation on the front lines, specifically in the Pokrovsk and Kursk directions. We also separately addressed the involvement of North Korean military personnel in the war against Ukraine.

We focused on continued U.S. support for Ukraine’s defense industry. For our side, Ukraine is actively developing its own production capabilities and is thankful to the United States for assistance in this direction. Together with our allies, we will continue strengthening our defense by ensuring the Armed Forces have everything they need.

The partnership between Ukraine and the United States is a real force on the battlefield. 🇺🇦🇺🇸

This is a very nice statement from Umerov. Both the expression of gratitude and the statement regarding the value of the Ukrainian-American relationship.

Unfortunately, Umerov knows it is a lie, but it is a lie that he has to keep repeating.

From The Kyiv Post:

President Volodymyr Zelensky’s recent charge that only ten percent of the military assistance the US said it would transfer to Ukraine this year has actually reached Ukrainian troops, is largely accurate, a Kyiv Post review of figures published by the Pentagon found.

Speaking at a meeting with reporters in Reykjavik on Wednesday, Zelensky said one of Ukraine’s many problems battling Russian invasion is that allied-promised arms assistance arrives too late or not at all – which complicates defense planning and kills and injures Ukrainians.

In the case of the US, Ukraine’s biggest military materiel supporter, a whopping 90 percent of military assistance approved by Congress for FY 2024 has yet to reach the battlefield, the Ukrainian leader said.

“This is the problem. What to do, for example, when Russia gains (more Ukrainian territory and takes) some steps forward in the East? You [Ukraine’s leadership] do your job. You count your reserves. You count on special brigades. You count on such-and-such [foreign-donated] equipment. And then, if you get ten percent of that package, [which has] already been voted on …You know, it’s not funny… the Congress voted. It’s not a question of money, it’s bureaucracy and logistics,” Zelensky said, speaking in English.

Based on Pentagon-published official figures, Zelensky’s ten percent delivery claim is probably a fairly, if not absolutely accurate estimate of the actual numbers of US arms put into the hands of Ukrainian troops so far this year, Kyiv Post found.

In a move seriously damaging Ukraine’s ability to fight, the US stopped all military assistance to Kyiv at the end of December because of Congressional wrangling over border law reform and political maneuvering between Democratic and Republican leadership eyeing upcoming elections

The five-month American embargo on arms transfers to Ukraine ended on April 24 when US President Joe Biden signed a bipartisan bill approving $60.84 billion in military assistance to Ukraine, to be completed by the end of FY2024.

Since then Pentagon aid disbursements, for the most part drawing down existing US hardware or munitions stocks which the funds would replace, have been steady at one or two support packages a month – each almost always valued well below a billion dollars, a volume distinctly less than what would be needed, to buy all the weaponry and assistance Congress approved for Ukraine for the year.

According to the Pentagon figures published in December 2023, a few days before US arms assistance to Ukraine was cut off, the total value of that assistance, counted from the start of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion, was $44.9 billion.

An Oct. 21 press release (the most recent on Ukraine assistance published by the Pentagon) placed the value of US military assistance earmarked for Ukraine, incorporating all money actually spent on Ukrainian military support in 2024, at $59.5 billion.

The difference between those two official numbers – $14.6 billion – is less than one quarter of the nearly $61 billion of military assistance approved by Congress in April 2024.

Zelensky’s Wednesday ten percent claim implied that, of the $14.6 billion worth military assistance for Ukraine that the Pentagon had actually said it has earmarked or spent in 2024, slightly more than $6 billion worth is in the hands of Ukrainian troops, and $8.6 billion was paid or will soon be bought, and is so somewhere in the delivery pipeline.

Long lag times between a Pentagon declaration that a weapons system is en route to Ukraine and its actual appearance on the battlefield are a matter of record. The powerful M1 Abrams tank, the planned transfer of which was first formally announced in January 2023, was only reported in country by official sources in September, and actually seen on a battlefield for the first time in November.

President Joe Biden has said all money earmarked for arms to Ukraine will get spent. On Sept. 26 he announced the US would send more than $5 billion in weapons from Pentagon stocks to Ukraine by January, and contract for the production and delivery of another $2.4 billion for air defense systems, drones and bombs.

Based on pace and scale of Pentagon arms packages sent Ukraine between April and October 2024, and even including the $7.4 billion the US leader said he was planning for in September, the White House and Pentagon are on track to spend markedly less than half of the $60.084 billion Congress approved for Ukraine, Kyiv Post estimates.

Congressionally appropriated money not spent by a US Federal agency during the fiscal year, in which it was approved, is not typically carried over to the next year and is effectively lost.

A Wednesday evening broadcast by Ukraine’s Channel 5 Television, one of the country’s oldest and most widely watched news platforms, was entitled “Why Has Ukraine Received Only Ten Percent of the Assistance Congress Voted For?” It told viewers the 90 percent gap between promised US military aid and actual arms deliveries was real, and exists because Washington is dragging its feet on Ukraine assistance.

The Ukrainian web news magazine Telegraf published an article on Wednesday article about US arms deliveries to Ukraine headlined: “Time to Get Ready for Problems with United States Aid”. Political Scientist Maksym Yakolev said: “Considering the… rift in US politics, Ukraine should prepare for the worst.”

For want of a nail!

The Pentagon keeps announcing new security assistance packages, like the one announced today.

The United States is providing a new security assistance package, which has an estimated value of $425 million.

The capabilities in this package include:
* Munitions for NASAMS
* Stinger missiles
* Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions
* Air-to-ground… pic.twitter.com/D7XJm7pgzj

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2024

The United States is providing a new security assistance package, which has an estimated value of $425 million.

The capabilities in this package include:
* Munitions for NASAMS
* Stinger missiles
* Counter-Unmanned Aerial Systems (c-UAS) equipment and munitions
* Air-to-ground munitions
* Ammunition for HIMARS
* 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition
* TOW missiles
* Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
* Stryker APCs
* Small arms and ammunition
* Medical equipment
* Demolitions equipment and munitions; and
* Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

We are grateful to our American friends for their steadfast support.

Together, we are stronger.
Together, we can win!
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

The Ukrainians keep publicly thanking the US, President Biden, Secretary Austin, and the American people. We know that money is being spent domestically because of these security assistance packages:

The US’ support for Ukraine has tremendously contributed to local business. Virtually all money was invested in many US states. Ammunition in Pennsylvania, MRAPs in Wisconsin, Stingers in Arizona, Abrams in Ohio, Bradleys in Virginia, Javelins in Alabama and practically every… pic.twitter.com/dc6VogQnTo

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) October 31, 2024

The US’ support for Ukraine has tremendously contributed to local business. Virtually all money was invested in many US states. Ammunition in Pennsylvania, MRAPs in Wisconsin, Stingers in Arizona, Abrams in Ohio, Bradleys in Virginia, Javelins in Alabama and practically every other state which supplies every component down to the last bolt.

Red and Blue states alike are both supporting the fight for freedom and it is important to highlight what unites both sides. Putin wants to shatter this. There is literally no human being on Earth who hates America more than him. He never processed the fall of his beloved Soviet Union and he will use every agent and every useful idiot to propel his sinister agenda.

So, where the hell are the weapon systems, weaponry, weapons, munitions, and other material actually going? If domestic investment is happening, which has been documented, if stocks are being drawn down, which has also been documented, but only 10% or so is making it to Ukraine, where is the money, what it is buying, and the material from existing stocks?

That is the question!

Poland:

Poland has started construction of the Eastern Shield on the border with Belarus and Russia, – Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The Eastern Shield involves the construction of fortifications, barriers and military facilities on NATO’s eastern borders.

The shield will be 700… pic.twitter.com/bpHFdse9JG

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 1, 2024

Poland has started construction of the Eastern Shield on the border with Belarus and Russia, – Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

The Eastern Shield involves the construction of fortifications, barriers and military facilities on NATO’s eastern borders.

The shield will be 700 kilometers long, will cost nearly $2.5 billion, and is scheduled to be completed by 2028.

“The government intends to create a comprehensive defense infrastructure on NATO’s eastern flank to counter threats from Belarus and Russia,” Donald Tusk’s office said.

North Korea:

Frontelligence Insight has reviewed new data with North Korean deployments near frontlines. Multiple indicators now leave little doubt that these forces are intended for direct combat operations, rather than for support roles such as digging trenches or observing in rear areas

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) November 1, 2024

Here’s a detailed assessment by Artur Rehi on the potential efficacy of North Korean forces:

The participation of North Korean units on the Ukrainian front will not bring about major changes and they will probably suffer major losses, said Colonel Ants Kiviselg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center. However, in the Donetsk region,
1/16Image
Russian armed forces still hold the initiative and have forced the Ukrainian armed forces to gradually retreat, he added. “Unfortunately, there is nothing positive from the Ukrainian front line this week. The Russian Armed Forces still hold the initiative along the entire
2/16Image
front line, which has forced the Ukrainian armed forces to gradually retreat,” Kiviselg said at a Defense Ministry press conference. According to him, the average number of attacks per day remained at the same level as in previous weeks, i.e. about 167 attacks per day.
3/16Image
“The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are capable of capturing most of the territories in the Donetsk region, primarily in the areas of Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka. Over the past week, the Russian Federation has occupied an additional 150 square
4/16Image
kilometers of territory in these regions,” Kiviselg said. “In addition, there are signs that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are preparing assault strikes in the area of ​​​​the Zaporizhzhia region. It is likely that the already known to us 76th Airborne Division
5/16Image
with a permanent deployment location in Pskov, Then the goal will be to capture new territories, as well as additional involvement of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this region,” Kiviselg said. “To summarize, it can be said that alarming events continue to occur in the
6/16Image
Donetsk region and the Donetsk region. It is possible that the Russian Armed Forces will achieve a local breakthrough in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhovo or Vuhledar areas this year,” he added. The Russian army has asked to extend the deadline for taking Kursk. Speaking about
7/16Image
the arrival of North Korean soldiers at the front, Kiviselg said that according to Ukraine, 3,000 soldiers of the 11th Army Corps of the North Korean Armed Forces, including several hundred servicemen of the North Korean special forces, have arrived in the Kursk region.
8/16Image
“These servicemen probably arrived on the territory of the Russian Federation in early October, where they underwent preliminary training in the Eastern Military District, which lasted approximately two to four weeks, after which they were sent to the Ukrainian front,”
9/16Image
Kiviselg said. “In total, North Korea had to allow the Russian Federation to send from 10 to 12 thousand soldiers, including 500 officers and three generals. Probably, the arrival of North Korean soldiers to the Ukrainian front will take place in stages. “The arrival of
the
10/16Image
next North Korean units on the Ukrainian front will take place in the coming weeks,” Kiviselg said. Kiviselg said that, as a rule, North Korean soldiers are trained for combat in mountainous terrain, which means that the territory of Ukraine, its climate and geography are
11/16Image
unknown to them. “And therefore, their training does not actually require combat in such areas. The training they receive in the Russian Federation is certainly not very good. “Therefore, we can expect that North Korean units will suffer heavy losses in Ukraine, and
12/16Image
presumably even heavier losses than the armed forces have suffered in the Russian Federation so far,” Kiviselg said. Despite this, Kiviselg believes that it is possible that North Korea will continue to send units to Russia and the Ukrainian front. “Despite this, the
13/16Image
intelligence center’s assessment is still that this sending of North Korean units to the Ukrainian front will not bring about major changes at the moment. But if this kind of additional sending of units to Russia, their training, and then their arrival at
14/16Image
the Ukrainian front continues for a long time, then this could certainly bring about certain changes on the front line,” Kiviselg said.
15/16Image

Source

16/16

https://www.err.ee/1609508542/kiviselg-pohja-korea-uksused-kannavad-ukrainas-ilmselt-suuri-kaotusi

South Korea:

“The South Korean government is caught between foreign partners asking for it to do more and an opposition demanding it does less,” said Jeongmin Kim, lead analyst at Seoul-based information service Korea Pro. https://t.co/R765xjs4i6

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) November 1, 2024

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol is weighing directly providing arms to Ukraine, a potentially consequential shift in the conflict, in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to the Russian front line.

Seoul has previously resisted entreaties from western allies to draw on its vast stockpiles of military armaments, preferring to contribute to Kyiv’s war effort through non-lethal aid. But North Korea’s deployment in Russia’s western Kursk region, which US officials said on Thursday could be as large as 8,000 troops, is shifting that calculation, according to analysts and diplomats.

Yoon and other senior officials in Seoul have described Pyongyang’s direct participation in the conflict as a threat to South Korea’s security, offering North Korean troops valuable battlefield experience. They also fear Moscow may share sophisticated military technologies in exchange for Pyongyang’s support.

Yoon has vowed not to “sit idle” in response to the North Korean deployment. His office confirmed this week that Seoul intended to send a delegation to Ukraine to monitor the North Korean forces, following a call on Tuesday between Yoon and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

But the prospect of directly supplying arms to Ukraine has been fiercely opposed by South Korea’s leftwing opposition, which holds a majority in parliament and blames the Yoon administration’s hardline stance towards North Korea for pushing Pyongyang into Moscow’s embrace.

“[Arming Ukraine] is an incredibly dangerous idea that treats people’s lives like pawns in a game of chess,” Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the Democratic party, told a party rally last week, arguing South Korea had no direct interest in the outcome of the war.

Yoon “shouldn’t engage South Korea in a proxy war with North Korea . . . in a faraway land”, said Park, adding that deepening Seoul’s involvement would “risk starting a military conflict on the Korean peninsula”.

“The South Korean government is caught between foreign partners asking for it to do more and an opposition demanding it does less,” said Jeongmin Kim, lead analyst at Seoul-based information service Korea Pro.

South Korea’s decades-long preparations for a possible renewal of hostilities with its northern enemy, coupled with its defence industry’s formidable manufacturing capacity, have created a large stockpile of weaponry including artillery shells, tanks, howitzers and surface-to-surface missiles.

A US ally, South Korea is a regular attendee at Nato summits and supplies several of its members. Analysts said its arms would largely be compatible with those already in operation among Ukraine’s forces.

“South Korean support for Ukraine could turn the tide on the entire conflict,” said Henry Haggard, a senior adviser at consultancy WestExec Advisors who served as minister-counsellor for political affairs at the US embassy in Seoul between 2021 and 2023.

“Korean firms not only make world-class armaments tailor-made to help Ukraine, they also have the production capacity to deliver essential weapons at a speed that could make a difference when needed most,” he added.

South Korea has provided support indirectly to Ukraine by replenishing US stocks of 155mm artillery shells delivered to Kyiv. “European governments are aware that South Korea has provided more artillery shells to Ukraine than all European countries combined, even if via third countries,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at King’s College London.

Zelenskyy said on Thursday that he was sending a representative to Seoul to make “detailed” requests for artillery and air defence systems in light of the North Korean deployment to Russia.

But Seoul has until now declined to initiate direct lethal aid, citing the country’s Foreign Trade Act, which restricts arms exports “except for peaceful purposes”.

Pacheco Pardo said there had been “an understanding between Seoul and Moscow that South Korea wouldn’t provide direct lethal aid to Ukraine, while Russia limited its support for North Korea”.

Russia’s ambassador to Seoul declared this year that South Korea was “one of the friendliest among the unfriendly countries”.

But Pacheco Pardo said the understanding was “now over”.

“I think the Yoon government will provide lethal aid to Ukraine if it has proof that Russia has increased its support to North Korea, particularly the transfer of technologies that can help Pyongyang develop its missile, satellite, space and other high-tech programmes,” he said.

A Seoul-based European diplomat said the South Korean government’s position on arms supplies “has moved” since the North Korean deployment, “but very, very cautiously”, noting that Seoul was likely to wait for the outcome of the US presidential election before deciding on its next step.

Jeongmin Kim said the Yoon administration appeared to be preparing to argue that providing lethal aid did not require parliament’s support and would not violate the Foreign Trade Act, on the grounds that arming Ukraine would contribute to international peace by helping bring the war to an end.

But Yang Uk, a defence expert at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, argued that direct military support would help Seoul repay its historic debt to countries that sent troops to defend South Korea during the Korean war in the 1950s.

“We had the same experience when North Korea invaded us that Ukraine is having now,” said Yang. “The world came to help us then, so now the least we can do is contribute to the global order in return.”

There is more at the link.

The US:

Today, ODNI along with our partners @FBI and @CISAgov released a joint statement on Russian election influence efforts. Read the statement here: https://t.co/6gdxip788y pic.twitter.com/KaWKRGz5W2

— Office of the DNI (@ODNIgov) November 1, 2024

From the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI):

Joint ODNI, FBI, and CISA Statement on Russian Election Influence Efforts

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ODNI News Release No. 28-24
November 1, 2024

 

Joint ODNI, FBI, and CISA Statement on Russian Election Influence Efforts
WASHINGTON, D.C. – Today, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) released the following statement:

“The IC assesses that Russian influence actors manufactured a recent video that falsely depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia. This judgment is based on information available to the IC and prior activities of other Russian influence actors, including videos and other disinformation activities. The Georgia Secretary of State has already refuted the video’s claims as false.

Russian influence actors also manufactured a video falsely accusing an individual associated with the Democratic presidential ticket of taking a bribe from a U.S. entertainer.

This Russian activity is part of Moscow’s broader effort to raise unfounded questions about the integrity of the US election and stoke divisions among Americans, as detailed in prior ODNI election updates. In the lead up to election day and in the weeks and months after, the IC expects Russia to create and release additional media content that seeks to undermine trust in the integrity of the election and divide Americans.”

Spoke with @BBCNews and @MartineBBC how Russia’s terror tactics are getting more elaborate: ‘human safaris’ in Kherson, deadly glide bombs hitting Kharkiv, and massive Shahed drone attacks on Kyiv pic.twitter.com/NiZz0XINVk

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) November 1, 2024

Sumy:

russian drone struck a 9 story building in Sumy, injuring at least 5 people pic.twitter.com/ZVWyhaBENj

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 1, 2024

Kharkiv:

Kharkiv today‼️ Kharkiv every day pic.twitter.com/FK18SIQowh

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 1, 2024

Kharkiv has been under daily russian strikes lately. All aimed at civilians, russia clearly resumes its tactics of daily terror against our city once again.

Please don’t look away! We need your support and advocacy. We need to be able to strike into russia, stronger air defense,… pic.twitter.com/gLAXpVzACm

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) November 1, 2024

Kharkiv has been under daily russian strikes lately. All aimed at civilians, russia clearly resumes its tactics of daily terror against our city once again.

Please don’t look away! We need your support and advocacy. We need to be able to strike into russia, stronger air defense, and more military aid to stop the daily terror!

Odesa:

#Odesa 22.04

Explosion

Next, air raid

— Zarina Zabrisky 🇺🇸🇺🇦 (@ZarinaZabrisky) November 1, 2024

Kreminna:

🚨 Tear Gas Attack on Ukrainian Trenches in Kreminna Forest 🚨 Watch the video to see the harsh realities our soldiers endure on the front lines. This is why your support is critical, help us provide the equipment they need to survive these attacks.
Source: Telegram

Stand with… pic.twitter.com/5kaheRWJqp

— 1 Team 1 Fight (@1team1fight_org) October 31, 2024

🚨 Tear Gas Attack on Ukrainian Trenches in Kreminna Forest 🚨 Watch the video to see the harsh realities our soldiers endure on the front lines. This is why your support is critical, help us provide the equipment they need to survive these attacks.
Source: Telegram

Stand with our heroes.

➡️ https://linktr.ee/1t1f

#OneTeamOneFight
@Dmitro7607 @Harri_Est @JoelTheDane

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

Defending Ukraine together

📷: 43rd Artillery Brigade pic.twitter.com/KkJopx1c4v

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) November 1, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

Покажу всю свою колекцію качечок, якщо це відео набере 50к лайків! 🌝🐾 #песпатрон

♬ original sound – House of Auto

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I will show you my entire collection of ducks if this video gets 50k likes! 🌝🐾 #песпатрон

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 982: Russia Double Tap Strikes Kharkiv, Attacks Odesa, Drone Strikes SumyPost + Comments (13)

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