There Are Hundreds of Instances of Clearly Unjustified Disabilities Among Officials in Customs, Tax Service, Pension Fund System, and Local Administrations – Address by the President

22 October 2024 – 18:37

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, there are several key things.

First, I held a meeting of the National Security and Defense Council. It addressed numerous instances of violations by MSEC and fraudulent disabilities among officials. It’s not just prosecutors, by the way.

There are hundreds of such instances of clearly unjustified disabilities among officials in Customs, Tax Service, Pension Fund system, and local administrations. All of this needs to be dealt with thoroughly and swiftly. The MSEC system should be abolished.

But for real and comprehensive change, we need to fully digitalize all stages of the disability assessment process.

Government officials – in the Ministry of Digital Transformation, in the digital team of the Ministry of Defense – have the power to ensure the relevant changes.

The problem is not only that officials use their connections to obtain disability status.

The problem is also that people with real disabilities, in particular those disabled in combat, are often unable to get proper status and fair payments.

The Government does not have much time to fix this.

There must be personal accountability and personnel decisions based on this situation in the central authorities – along the vertical of MSEC control.

The decision of the National Security and Defense Council now provides for a full audit of pensions and other accruals for all officials who have “arranged” a disability status for themselves.

There was a report to the National Security and Defense Council by the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Maliuk, and the Minister of Internal Affairs, Klymenko, on the inspections and investigations that are already underway.

Unfortunately, the reports by the Minister of Health of Ukraine and the Minister of Social Policy of Ukraine were very unconvincing.

We need to go through all the horizons of local authorities separately.

Also today, the National Security and Defense Council discussed the situation in Ukraine’s prosecution bodies. As a result of this discussion, the Prosecutor General of Ukraine, Andriy Kostin, submitted a letter of resignation.

The second thing, which is important to mention today.

Several reports were made by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi regarding our frontline situation and prospects for the near future.

In particular, we have information that two units of military personnel from North Korea are being trained – potentially even two brigades of 6,000 people each.

And this is a challenge.

But we know how to respond to this challenge. And it is important that our partners do not shy away from this challenge as well. All partners.

I am grateful to all the countries and leaders who have condemned North Korea’s involvement in the Russian war.

It is clear that Pyongyang, just like Moscow, does not count people and does not value human lives.

But all of us in the world are equally interested in ending the war, not prolonging it. That is why we must stop Russia and its allies together.

If North Korea can intervene in the war in Europe, then the pressure on this regime is definitely not strong enough.

And if Russia is still able to expand and prolong this war, it means that everyone in the world who is still not helping to force Russia into peace is actually helping Putin to wage war.

Aggressors must be stopped. We expect a firm, concrete response from the world. Hopefully, not only in words.

I thank everyone who is helping Ukraine! I thank all our warriors and everyone who is working for the sake of Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

Anna Kushnarova, just 14 years old, lost her life in a russian Shahed drone attack on Sumy. The drone struck their home directly, reducing it to rubble and taking the lives of Anna, her mother, and her aunt.

📷Suspilne Sumy pic.twitter.com/9FkeqNZZQj

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) October 22, 2024

14-year-old Ania Kushnariova, her mom Iryna and her aunt were killed by a Russian drone today. Ania’s father survived, he is in the hospital in critical condition. Ania’s dog Yuma is also fighting for her life, she barely survived.

Ania was a dog trainer, she attended a kennel… https://t.co/IHHTDHoCZl pic.twitter.com/vCr9YlBZZz

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) October 22, 2024

14-year-old Ania Kushnariova, her mom Iryna and her aunt were killed by a Russian drone today. Ania’s father survived, he is in the hospital in critical condition. Ania’s dog Yuma is also fighting for her life, she barely survived.

Ania was a dog trainer, she attended a kennel club in Sumy.

“At the last competition in Kyiv in September, she stood on the podium with her Yuma and was very happy about it, she hoped to come to the next competition in November, but the Russian military killed her,” Ukrainian Kennel Union wrote.

Deepest condolences.

📷: Alina Bodnar/Facebook

North Korea:

There is little the US can do about the growing threat from the North Korean alliance and its allies, short of direct military action, which is currently out of the question – Politico, citing US officials.

What did you build all this stuff for anyway? pic.twitter.com/83VFzPxelZ

— Jürgen Nauditt 🇩🇪🇺🇦 (@jurgen_nauditt) October 22, 2024

🇺🇸🇰🇵🇷🇺 The Biden Admin has tried nothing and they are all out of ideas.

This defeatist attitude has to stop. They have options; use them! The CRINKS are going to continue to escalate until they receive a forceful response. ⬇️ https://t.co/KffGY3QsaB pic.twitter.com/CA21lu977T

— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) October 21, 2024

From Politico‘s NatSec Daily:

Russia and North Korea are alarming Western nations with their blossoming defense alliance. And Washington has few if any options to completely stop it, officials privately concede.

White House Spokesperson JOHN KIRBY called the reports of 1,500 North Korean troops being deployed to Russia “dangerous and highly concerning” but said it also underscored how Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN was “increasingly desperate” to turn the tide of his costly war in Ukraine.

Privately, U.S. officials as well as East Asian diplomats and congressional aides say there’s little Washington can do practically to stymy the blossoming alliance between Moscow and Pyongyang in conversations with NatSec Daily, short of direct military action which isn’t on the table. These three officials and two aides were granted anonymity to discuss the matter candidly.

They concede that Washington has made little to no progress in slowing North Korea’s rogue nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs, and if it can’t do that, it can only do so much to halt North Korean troop deployments to Russia, too.

For starters, the go-to U.S. retaliation against its adversaries — adding countries to sanctions and export controls lists — doesn’t work on North Korea the way it does other countries. “It is already sanctioned to the hilt, more sanctions can’t really do much,” said one U.S. official.

Second, North Korea has effectively been ghosting President JOE BIDEN ever since he first came into office nearly four years ago, leaving no starting point for any dialogue on this issue in the first place. The White House has repeatedly extended public offers to talk to North Korea, also known as the DPRK, any time with “no preconditions” but has only received radio silence from North Korean leader KIM JONG UN in return.

Third, officials said, Moscow’s recently renewed embrace of Pyongyang gives the isolated North Korean regime a new diplomatic lifeline to the outside world that is impervious to Western or international pressure. Putin has shown no willingness to halt or alter r enewed defense and security cooperation with North Korea despite waves of international condemnation, going so far as to veto a U.N. sanctions monitoring program on North Korea it had previously supported earlier this year.

Still, the United States is trying. It has worked to strengthen its alliance structures in East Asia and strengthen its defense cooperation with South Korea and Japan in a show of force to North Korea and its backers in Beijing and Moscow. And the U.S. has boosted cooperation among its allies in Asia and those in Europe — a development all sides are welcoming. NATO has requested that South Korea send a delegation to Brussels to brief the alliance on the reports of North Korean troops in Russia, as our own STUART LAU reports.

“We are looking into the reports that the DPRK is preparing to send soldiers to fight alongside Russia. We are consulting with our allies and partners on the implications of such a dramatic move,” said Lt. Cmdr JAVAN RASNAKE, a Department of Defense spokesperson. The National Security Council told NatSec Daily it is reviewing policy options if the reports prove correct, but did not elaborate.

One major unknown that has unnerved some U.S. officials is what exactly the North Korean troops will be doing in Russia. Ukrainian officials have said that the North Korean troops could begin directly fighting against their forces in Ukraine. Some U.S. officials and congressional aides speculate that these North Korean forces could gain warfighting training and technical know-how on Western defense systems from the battle-hardened Russian forces to take back to their own country.

“There are a lot of unknowns about what they’ll do, but all the options are bad,” said a congressional aide who works on Asian security issues.

South Korea:

This is how you deal with dictators: Inform them of the costs they will incur if they do not comply with your demands, and be prepared to raise those costs until they do comply. https://t.co/G979alutMP

— Euan MacDonald (@Euan_MacDonald) October 22, 2024

Here’s the full text of the quoted tweet:

⚡️🇺🇦🇰🇷 South Korea has vowed to take “phased measures” in response to North Korea sending troops to Russia as part of growing military cooperation. During a National Security Council meeting, South Korea urged North Korea to immediately withdraw its 12,000 deployed troops and warned that this collaboration violates UN resolutions. If North Korea and Russia continue their military ties, South Korea, in collaboration with international allies, is prepared to take further action, potentially sending weapons for defense and attack, a senior presidential official told reporters.

https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20241022005500315?section=national/defense

From Yonhap News Agency English:

SEOUL, Oct. 22 (Yonhap) — South Korea vowed Tuesday to take “phased measures” against North Korea and Russia over their deepening military cooperation, and urged North Korea to immediately withdraw its troops from Russia.

The presidential National Security Council (NSC) convened a meeting to assess the situation after the National Intelligence Service reported that North Korea has decided to send around 12,000 troops to assist Russia, with approximately 1,500 soldiers already deployed to Russia’s Far East.

The NSC said the development poses a “significant security threat” to both South Korea and the international community and is a “blatant violation” of U.N. Security Council resolutions prohibiting military cooperation with North Korea.

“The government calls for the immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops,” deputy national security adviser Kim Tae-hyo said in a briefing.

“If the illegal military cooperation between North Korea and Russia continues, (South Korea) will not stand by but respond firmly in collaboration with the international community,” Kim said, warning of “phased measures” in response to the level of their military ties.

Among the possible scenarios include sending weapons for defense and attack, a senior presidential official told reporters.

In June, South Korea indicated the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine after North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a pact pledging mutual defense. However, Seoul has so far maintained its stance of providing Ukraine with non-lethal humanitarian aid.

Turkey:

Again, and again, every crackdown is a small victory that reminds us how much more could have been done at the start and how many more people would be alive if we had. Secondary sanctions on Russia’s enablers are still terribly feeble and Ukrainians are paying in blood. https://t.co/Xigr0h0JSF

— Garry Kasparov (@Kasparov63) October 22, 2024

The Financial Times has the details: (emphasis mine)

Turkey has secretly barred exports to Russia of US military-linked hardware after Washington warned Ankara of “consequences” if it did not halt the trade.

Ankara has in recent weeks adjusted its customs systems to block exports of more than four dozen categories of US-origin goods that Washington and its western allies view as vital to Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine, according to three people with direct knowledge of the matter.

Turkey’s electronic customs system no longer allows exporters to proceed with sending shipments of the so-called “battlefield goods” to Russia, one of the people said, having previously enabled them to be transported there. Similar goods originating from the EU were blocked earlier and remain so, two of the people said.

The trade curbs, which affect civilian parts such as microchips and remote control systems that western allies say are being used in weaponry, were not publicly announced because of “political sensitivities”, one of the people said.

Turkey’s trade ministry and Dmitry Peskov, spokesperson for Russian President Vladimir Putin, did not respond to requests for comment.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has positioned himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war while retaining warm relations with Putin. The two men are due to meet at this week’s Brics summit in Kazan on Wednesday.

The quiet bans on military-linked exports to Russia, however, are the latest sign that Turkey is stepping back from the role as a lifeline from western sanctions that it embraced earlier in the war.

Turkish banks sharply cut back their business with Russian counterparties this year after the US issued an executive order threatening sanctions against lenders processing transactions for the Kremlin’s war machine.

Turkey’s trade curbs come as the US is seeking to staunch Russia’s access to western technology that is being used in Moscow’s military systems more than two years after Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The banned goods are taken from a list of 50 “high-priority” western-made items that the US, UK, EU and Japan have identified as crucial to Russia’s imports for its arms industry.

They include advanced electronics that regularly turn up in missiles and drones downed in Ukraine, such as processors and memory cards, as well as machine tools and other equipment used to produce weapons.

Washington has long harboured concerns that Turkey is being used as an intermediary through which Russia is accessing military-linked goods, a suspicion that has tarnished relations between the two allies.

The Biden administration has dispatched top officials to Turkey in a bid to press Erdoğan’s government to take action, while also hitting Turkish companies with sanctions for taking part in the trade with Russia.

Turkish exports of these goods surged in the aftermath of the full-scale invasion, increasing from about $3mn a month at the start of the war to a peak of about $38mn in December 2022, according to official Turkish government statistics. They registered about $4.1mn in August this year, the most recent figures available.

The more recent fall in direct trade is thought to be partly attributable to a shift in some battlefield goods being exported from Turkey to intermediaries such as Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, before ultimately reaching Russia. The new Turkish trade curbs do not affect exports to these countries.

The US:

BREAKING: US intelligence assesses 🇷🇺Russian operatives behind fake video targeting @Tim_Walz.

The false smears were massively amplified by right wing personalities.

Expect more of this.

By @snlyngaas https://t.co/AWBYbpeWl5 pic.twitter.com/tEUKEpsz3S

— John Scott-Railton (@jsrailton) October 22, 2024

CNN has the details:

Russian operatives created and amplified false online content attempting to smear Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, US intelligence agencies said on Tuesday.

The content in question — which included manipulated audio content that circulated on the social media platform X in the last week — contained “several indicators of manipulation that are consistent with the influence efforts and tactics with Russian actors,” an official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) told reporters on Tuesday.

The statement was based on newly available intelligence and analysts worked over the weekend to analyze the media content, the official said.

Some posts circulating the fake content on X garnered hundreds of thousands of views and were amplified by right-wing personalities. The episode had echoes of the bizarre and false “Pizzagate” conspiracy theory that attempted to smear Democrats in 2016.

It is evidence of Russia’s 11th-hour efforts to malignly influence the 2024 presidential election in favor of former President Donald Trump, whom US intelligence assesses is the Kremlin’s preferred choice.

With two weeks until Election Day, accusations of foreign meddling are extremely political sensitive. The intelligence community has repeatedly exposed influence operations from Russia and Iran aimed at hurting Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, respectively, in an effort to make those influence operations less impactful with the American public.

The Harris-Walz campaign has expressed concern that media coverage could amplify the false Russian claims.

“Vladimir Putin wants Donald Trump to win because he knows Trump will roll over and give him anything he wants,” Harris-Walz campaign spokesperson Morgan Finkelstein said in an email. “We condemn in the strongest terms any effort by foreign actors to interfere in U.S. elections.”

The intelligence tying the attacks on Walz to Russia was part of a broader US intelligence assessment released Tuesday on the state of foreign threats to the election.

US intelligence officials are concerned that Russia and Iran could use disinformation to try to foment violence in the days and weeks between Election Day and the certification of votes, according to the assessment.

Russian operatives will likely question the integrity of the US presidential election regardless of the outcome, but likely will be “more aggressive” in their efforts if Harris wins, the ODNI official told reporters.

Everything recounted above belies Secretary Austin’s remarks in Kyiv. We’re four months away from entering the third year of this full genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and we’ve got a combination of just getting round to it and we’ve tried nothing and we’re all out of ideas while telling the Ukrainians that their fight is existential for the US, the EU, NATO, and the global order. If Secretary Austin is correct in the assessment he provided in his remarks above the jump that Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine is such an existential threat, then the US, the EU and its member states, and NATO need to act like it.

Tatarigami has thoughts as to where we’re at because Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion is existential, but the response by the Biden administration, the EU, many of the EU member states, and NATO has not matched that reality. His thread followed by excerpts from the essay his thread is based on.

Ukraine is likely approaching the final stages of the active phase of the war. I suggest taking a look at my assessment, which draws on General Budanov’s overlooked speech at the Yalta Conference, along with insights from other reports and assessments

🧵Thread:

2/ Any war of attrition tests endurance, economics, diplomacy, and the ability to replace losses. As the war continues, these issues intensify, pushing one side closer to a tipping point. Production and the capacity to replace losses are tangible factors that can be projected 

3/ One notable point from Budanov’s speech was Russia’s plan to produce 149 T-90M tanks in 2024.
Russia has been heavily relying on refurbishing older tank models from its Soviet-era stockpiles. Most of its current tank fleet on the battlefield is no longer in production. 

4/ OSINT analyst @Highmarsed, who tracks open-air storage, provides a more detailed assessment. He reported that by 6 July 2024, Russia’s stock of T-55s had dropped by 31%, T-62s by 37%, and T-80Bs by 79%, but only 9% of T-72 removed from the storage

5/ OSINT analyst @naalsio26 estimates that by 4 October 2024, Russian forces had lost over 539 tanks and 1,830 vehicles in total in the Pokrovsk direction (formerly the Avdiivka direction) since 2023. Numbers that far surpass Russia’s current tank production capacity. 

6/ Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia has lost over 3,000 tanks – more than its entire prewar active-duty tank force – along with approximately ~30% of its most advanced self-propelled artillery and rocket launcher systems per data on Oryx and Warspotting 

7/ A report from senior analyst @MassDara, published by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, further details that Russia is expected to exhaust its stockpile of multiple Soviet-era military equipment by 2026. 

8/ There are also clear challenges in replacing Russia’s air force losses. Some older jet models are no longer in mass production, and the new jet production is less impressive. For example, Budanov noted that Russia plans to produce only 14 Su-57 fighters in 2024. 

9/ That being said, it’s not all bad news for Russia: its Iskander missile production, particularly the Iskander-M, has ramped up significantly. While Budanov didn’t specify exact numbers, this aligns with reports from the ground about Russia’s frequent use of these missiles. 

10/ According to the same Carnegie Endowment report, Russia’s military equipment production, excluding drones, had plateaued by early 2024. Further expansion seems unlikely without building new factories or taking significant risks 

11/ Kyrylo Budanov stated that North Korea is Russia’s largest military partner, mainly due to its supply of artillery shells. He noted that after a North Korean shipment arrives, combat intensifies within 8-9 days, with the effect lasting up to two weeks 

12/ As North Korea has been supplying Russia from its own stockpiles, it’s uncertain whether Pyongyang can significantly increase production to meet Russia’s demands. It’s also unclear to what extent North Korea is willing to deplete its own artillery reserves 

13/ General Budanov emphasized the significance of Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes deep inside Russia, including in Moscow. These strikes have shaken public confidence, undermining the belief that Russia’s leadership guarantees security and maintains military strength.

14/ As the war progresses, more Russians from various social backgrounds are questioning why the war is reaching their homes and whether their leadership can truly preserve Russia’s pre-war status as a formidable military power capable of protecting its citizens. 

15/ The introduction of domestically developed sea drones has since become Ukraine’s surprise weapon, rapidly evolving into a core naval weapon, and despite having a largely non-functional fleet, Ukraine has managed to destroy a quarter of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

16/ More importantly, these drones have restricted Russia’s navy from operating freely. Ukrainian grain ships can now navigate more safely. This capability allows Ukraine to safeguard its maritime interests while deterring Russian actions in the region. 

17/ Investing in Ukraine’s domestic drone production and pursuing joint projects with Western countries could be a path forward. It may reduce the political risks of seeking permission to strike with Western missiles – an objective Ukraine has already achieved independently 

18/ As General Budanov notes, Russian internal calculations suggest that if Russia doesn’t exit the war by the anticipated time frame, it will be unable to claim “superpower” status in the foreseeable future – at least 30 years. The most it can hope for is regional leadership 

19/ In September of 2024, Russia raised its key interest rate to 19%, with its inflation rates reaching over 7%.

An analyst Pierre-Marie Meunier, analyzing 2023 data from Russia’s Central Bank, highlights a sharp decline in Russian exports. 

20/ These mounting challenges create potential grounds for future negotiations, which President Zelensky hopes to leverage in November 2024. However, in my opinion, General Budanov’s suggested timeline may be more realistic, particularly regarding the situation in Kursk. 

21/ If negotiations occur, Russia will not be entering from a position of strength if it is forced to negotiate over its own territory. Thus, Russia will likely try to enter talks from a better position, which may not happen until the end of their own Kursk offensive operation. 

22/ While logical, this scenario carries serious risks for the Kremlin: failure to retake Kursk could further damage Putin’s image as a leader who not only failed to defend Russian territory but was also forced to negotiate over it 

23/ However, the low number of vehicles and economic difficulties might not be enough to compel Putin to end the war. He can instead consolidate gains. By heavily mining the frontlines and maintaining missile strikes, he could keep Ukraine in a state of limbo 

24/ And if the war does not come to an end, its intensity will likely decrease. This means Ukraine needs a long-term plan of action, whether that involves preparing for a potential second invasion or sustaining a low-intensity war. 

Full article:

Does Russia face military collapse by 2026? Inside Ukraine’s strategic assessmentAs tank reserves deplete and production stalls, intelligence analysis points to a critical deadline for Russia’s war effort. Yet Putin’s ability to sustain low-intensity conflict challenges this timel…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/10/22/does-russia-face-military-collapse-by-2026-inside-ukraines-strategic-assessment/

Here are some additional excerpts from his essay at EuroMaidan Press: (emphasis mine)

Ukraine may be entering the final stages of its war with Russia, with the war potentially drawing to a close by the end of 2025 and early 2026, at least according to Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Directorate of Intelligence. Budanov shared this projection based on intelligence data during the annual Yalta European Strategy meeting, an international platform that puts together prominent Western and Ukrainian figures.

As the initial invasion has evolved into an attritional war, understanding the enemy’s will to fight, their resources, and their ability to replace losses becomes critical in order to calculate the trajectory of war. The specific numbers provided by Budanov and backed up by expert analyses provide factual substance to the discussion, making it more valuable for projecting accurate timelines.

Any attritional war ultimately becomes a test of societal endurance, war economics, diplomacy, and the ability to replace losses. As the war drags on, these problems intensify, pushing one side closer to a tipping point where continuing the war worsens their position. Military production and the capacity to replace losses are among the war’s tangible factors that can be calculated and projected well.

General Budanov explained the importance of Ukraine’s long-range drone strikes deep inside Russia, including Moscow. These strikes have shaken the confidence of the Russian people, undermining the belief that their leadership provides ultimate security and ensures Russia’s military might.

As the war progresses, more Russians from various social backgrounds are questioning why the war is reaching their homes and whether their leadership can truly preserve Russia’s pre-war status as a formidable military power capable of protecting its citizens.

The widespread use of FPV drones – small, racing-style drones costing under $1,000, has reshaped the battlefield. These drones are capable of targeting everything from armored vehicles to advancing infantry and reconnaissance drones and even helicopters.

During the artillery shortages of 2023 and early 2024, FPV drones became a crucial tool in the arsenal, often serving as the primary means to engage the enemy at longer distances, with some able to fly up to 20 kilometers using transmitter drones.

Through grassroots efforts, volunteer organizations, and some government assistance, Ukraine has managed to scale the production of drones and standardized munitions for them. While there remains a shortage of drones and a lack of sufficient state involvement in their procurement for military units, the number of drones on the battlefield has surged from just dozens to tens of thousands in under a year, making them an essential part of the war theater.

Investing in Ukraine’s domestic production and pursuing joint projects with Western countries could be one of the most effective paths forward. This approach can help to reduce the political risks and fallout associated with gaining permission to strike deep inside Russia with Western missiles – something Ukraine has already managed to achieve independently, without resulting in over exaggerated fears of nuclear missile launches.

A self-sufficient Ukraine is more beneficial to its partners, easing the political friction in the West over its own dwindling military supplies. This will help Ukraine to take an important role in a changing security and geopolitical environment, where it can serve as a key partner for Europe in the defense area. With its proven expertise and production capabilities, Ukraine will organically contribute to the Western defense efforts through collaborative projects.

As General Budanov notes, Russian internal calculations suggest that if Russia doesn’t exit the war by the anticipated time frame, it will be unable to claim “superpower” status in the foreseeable future — at least 30 years. Instead, the most it can hope for is regional leadership.

Internal Russian analysis predicts only two superpowers will remain: the US and China, a scenario referred to as “The Rise of China” and “The Domination of America,” with no place for Russia on the global stage.

This projection isn’t driven solely by war production challenges but also by a deteriorating financial and economic situation, slowing growth, and expected setbacks.

Following Ukraine’s successful incursion into Kursk, Russian political elites are facing a new problem.

If negotiations do take place, Russia won’t be entering from a position of strength: an autocratic regime appears weaker when forced to negotiate over its own territory. Any regime would seek ways to avoid being seen as weak or incompetent internally, so Russia will try to enter talks from a more favorable position.

This suggests Russia may be hesitant to engage seriously in negotiations come November, likely delaying any substantive talks until they attempt to retake Kursk. While Russia is currently struggling to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the area, they are steadily building up troops, preparing for a larger operation in the near future.

While logical, this scenario carries serious risks for the Kremlin: failure to retake Kursk could further damage Putin’s image as a leader who not only failed to defend Russian territory but was also forced to negotiate over it. Despite the state’s propaganda of a powerful Russian army, his inability to reclaim these lands would undermine his internal image.

On the other hand, we must consider the possibility that the importance of Kursk and its impact on Russian elites and society may be overstated. They might simply overlook it until the situation becomes an accepted and irrelevant fact, with Kursk becoming a minor factor in Russian decision-making.

This would be especially true if Putin can demonstrate consistent gains in Donbas, pushing further into Ukrainian territory and shifting the focus away from losses elsewhere

The analysis can’t be considered full or complete without some self-reflection and acknowledging doubts about the data. While the numbers may seem consistent, they don’t necessarily reflect Putin’s rationale, which could operate on entirely different assumptions, like viewing the West as weak or Ukraine’s government as unstable.

The low number of vehicles and economic difficulties might not be enough to compel Putin to end the war. After all, prior to the beginning of the invasion, many individuals and even some professional analysts questioned Russia’s intentions based solely on the number of troops stationed at the border. They concluded that the forces were insufficient to overtake Ukraine and thus believed that Putin would not proceed with an invasion.

He could very well scale down offensive operations, allowing his generals to consolidate gains. By heavily mining the frontlines and continuing missile strikes, he could keep Ukraine in a state of limbo – too dangerous for normal life or business to recover.

With low-intensity combat and reduced military spending, Putin might be able to drag the war out, balancing between war and economics for much longer while waiting for the best possible terms in negotiations.

It is not entirely unrealistic, given that Europe’s trade with Russia’s neighbors, particularly in Central Asia, has been skyrocketing. This trend suggests that Russia may find a path to avoid economic collapse and could continue the war at a lower intensity by leveraging its demographic advantage.

Putin is acutely aware of war weariness in the West and operates under the assumption that Western leaders might lack the resolve and incentives to maintain high levels of aid to Ukraine. Foreign assistance is often an unpopular issue in domestic politics, becoming a frequent target for opposition parties that accuse the government of prioritizing foreign spending over pressing issues at home, such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure.

Nevertheless, we can all agree that if the war does not come to an end, its intensity will likely decrease. This means Ukraine needs a long-term plan of action, whether that involves preparing for a potential second invasion or sustaining a low-intensity war.

Sumy:

russian forces launched an attack on Sumy, Ukraine, last night, destroying multiple households. The bodies of three victims, including a child, were recovered from the rubble.
Ukrainian state emergency services shared a heartbreaking video pic.twitter.com/OO34EnSMJL

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 22, 2024

Kharkiv:

⚡️ In photos: Russians dropped bombs on Kharkiv, injured 13, including child. pic.twitter.com/vPb4gRUmfC

— Gwara (@GwaraMedia) October 21, 2024

❤️‍🩹These are the windows of #Kharkiv: taped over, broken, with plastic, wooden or metal frames, but all so homey and beloved. pic.twitter.com/5F90h9PstC

— Denys from Kharkiv (@GlushkoDenys) October 22, 2024

Second explosion in Kharkiv ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) October 22, 2024

Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Images taken by Ukrainian partisans in occupied Donetsk showing they are around and active. Apart from sabotage, etc. these groups reportedly provide valuable intel on Russian activities in the occupied territory. The poster says “Donetsk is Ukraine” pic.twitter.com/bdl6QXLKjS

— raging545 (@raging545) October 22, 2024

Somewhere in Russia:

Drones now hit truly strategic targets in Russia – three distilleries taken out overnight.

Seems Ukraine has crossed all red lines. How will Russians only survive? pic.twitter.com/QY8f95bOw3

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 22, 2024

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