We Need Our Partners’ Resolve in Light of Reports about North Korea’s New Role in Supporting Russia – Address by the President

21 October 2024 – 20:24

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, there is a new decision by the United States to support Ukraine – a new defense package worth $400 million. Additionally, a separate package is being prepared for funding the production of Ukrainian drones, amounting to $800 million. Ukraine is grateful for this support. We need to ensure that, despite any political threats in the world, Ukraine can consistently defend its sovereignty and independence. This will certainly be ensured. Every meeting with our partners involves discussions about the defense-industrial complex. Today, I also spoke with U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin about the implementation of our Victory Plan and the concrete steps that can bring the plan’s points to life. We need decisive actions from our partners, especially in light of reports about North Korea’s new role in supporting Russia. It is obvious that Putin fears peace, which is why he is looking for ways to escalate the aggression and involve North Korea on the frontline. This is an obvious signal to the whole world as to who wants nothing but war. In this situation, I am grateful to every leader and every nation that is now increasing support for Ukraine, that has backed the first, inaugural Peace Summit, and is helping us prepare the second Summit as well. Prepare it in such a way that it will be truly effective. More than 100 countries and international organizations were with us at the first Peace Summit. All the principles for restoring peace that we proposed are fully based on the UN Charter and key international documents. Back in June, when 100 participants gathered to support peace for Ukraine and the full effectiveness of the UN Charter, there was a real sense of equality among all nations at the table. There was genuine respect for international law. This is exactly what the second Peace Summit should be like.

Today, I also held important meetings with Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych, and Ukraine’s Minister of Defense Umerov. We thoroughly discussed the situation on the frontline, in the main directions – Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Kharkiv, and others. The reports covered not only the current situation and our current actions but also future prospects. Accordingly, we discussed provisioning, armament, and brigade staffing. We also specifically discussed the Kursk operation – we are holding our positions, and I thank every warrior for their bravery. We must remember that the Kursk operation serves a strategic goal. The war must return to the territories from which it came. This is fair when a buffer zone is created on the aggressor’s territory. Moreover, the Kursk operation has enabled Ukraine to step up its efforts regarding prisoner exchanges – to bring our warriors back from Russian captivity. Everyone can see this. I thank all the combat brigades and every unit fighting on the frontline!

And one more thing.

Today, we held essential preparatory meetings ahead of the National Security and Defense Council session. Many new details emerged. Unfortunately, there have been hundreds of instances of violations at various levels due to the dishonest work of the Medical and Social Expert Commissions. There will be systemic, personnel, and procedural responses to address this.

Glory to Ukraine!

Today, I welcomed U.S. @SecDef Lloyd Austin in Kyiv. I thanked him for a new defense assistance package for Ukraine worth $400 million that includes ammunition, military equipment, and weaponry.

During the meeting we discussed critical defense priorities, including Ukraine’s air… pic.twitter.com/j0O1LEO5lZ

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) October 21, 2024

Today, I welcomed U.S. @SecDef Lloyd Austin in Kyiv. I thanked him for a new defense assistance package for Ukraine worth $400 million that includes ammunition, military equipment, and weaponry.

During the meeting we discussed critical defense priorities, including Ukraine’s air defense capabilities, preparations for the winter period, and the expansion of long-range weapon use against Russian military targets. Additionally, we focused on efforts to increase the production of strike drones, cruise missiles, artillery shells, and air defense systems.

Secretary Austin reaffirmed that the U.S. will continue its security support as part of the ongoing defense agreement between our countries. He also shared plans to convene a new Ramstein format meeting to coordinate further aid with international partners.

I emphasized the importance of our recent negotiations with President Biden, during which we talked about our Victory Plan and continued efforts to strengthen Ukraine’s defense.

We are grateful to President Biden, both parties in the U.S. Congress, and the American people for all their support since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Together with all of our allies we work to secure victory and peace for Ukraine and all peace-loving nations.

Chris Cavoli, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) & commander of Europe Command (EUCOM), sat next to Austin there, though not in uniform. Very rare to see a US general publicly in Kyiv. https://t.co/lGpdACra5B

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) October 21, 2024

The Kyiv Independent has the details:

The U.S. has allocated a new military assistance package for Ukraine worth $400 million, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced during his to Kyiv on Oct. 21, Ukrinform reported.

Later in the day, the Pentagon said in its press release that the recent package included HIMARS air defense systems, tube-launched, optically tracked, wire-guided (TOW) missiles, M113 armored personnel carriers, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems, and ammunition for high-mobility artillery.

Washington also pledged to provide Kyiv with 155 mm and 105 mm artillery ammunition, as well as 60 mm, 81 mm, and 120 mm mortar systems and rounds, among other weapons and training equipment.

The Pentagon chief arrived in Kyiv in a surprise visit to discuss further support for Ukraine as the uncertain U.S. presidential election looms.

There are fears that if Republican nominee and ex-President Donald Trump beats his Democratic challenger, Vice President Kamala Harris, he might withdraw or scale down U.S. support for Ukraine and force the country toward painful concessions.

Washington has allocated some $175 billion in assistance to Ukraine since the outbreak of the full-scale war in 2022, including roughly $70 billion worth of arms and military equipment.

Despite the U.S. support, Russian forces keep grinding on in the country’s east while Ukraine braces for fresh strikes against the energy grid with the coming winter.

Denmark and Sweden:

Denmark provided Ukraine with 118% of its annual defense budget. Sweden – 112%. The top five leaders in relative terms are Denmark, Sweden, Estonia, the Netherlands, and Norway. pic.twitter.com/XlZcgWVi93

— Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇦🇺🇸 (@rshereme) October 21, 2024

Don’t feel bad US, at least you’re in the top 21!

Moldova:

And this is what happened next pic.twitter.com/ZmC74cskRe

— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) October 21, 2024

How has Moldova come to this? Decades of Russian occupation, mass resettlement of Russians to Romanian land, forced Russification, impoverishing the people through corruption and mafia dealings, relentless propaganda. And voilà—half of the population are slaves. pic.twitter.com/xsVp4JJL1k

— Mykhaïlo Golub (@golub) October 21, 2024

“If Ukraine’s international partners wait for changes beyond their direct control to happen before they take action, as they appear to be doing now, they will increase the chance of failure.”

Good rundown by Jack of what the West must do to help Ukraine get to a position of… https://t.co/P19sKXeQUe

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) October 21, 2024

“If Ukraine’s international partners wait for changes beyond their direct control to happen before they take action, as they appear to be doing now, they will increase the chance of failure.”

Good rundown by Jack of what the West must do to help Ukraine get to a position of strength ahead of any negotiations. But also some things Kyiv must do to help itself.

RUSI’s Jack Watling at Foreign Affairs:

President Volodymyr Zelensky has spent recent weeks endeavoring to sell his “victory plan,” the core elements of which he unveiled to the Ukrainian parliament on October 16, to Ukraine’s partners. The plan includes expanded military assistance to stabilize the front, security guarantees through membership of NATO, and defense-industrial cooperation. The details of the plan have been met with significant skepticism among Ukraine’s partners, who fear that without reforms to Ukraine’s recruitment and training of military forces, equipment alone will be insufficient to stabilize the front. Nor are they sold on the willingness of the alliance to guarantee Ukraine’s security.

Though the details remain in question, the underlying analysis that shapes Zelensky’s pitch is sound. Russian President Vladimir Putin will negotiate seriously only if he believes he is losing militarily. To conclude the war on favorable terms, Ukraine must first stabilize the front, gain maximum leverage over Russia, and obtain security guarantees to ensure that it can prosper and remain secure after the conflict. To achieve those aims, Kyiv must be clearly aligned with its international partners.

The problem is that Ukraine now faces both a deteriorating battlefield situation and the stagnation of diplomatic efforts among its partners ahead of a U.S. election where the candidates have radically different approaches to the conflict. Over the summer, Russia managed to establish some significant advantages over Ukrainian forces, enabling it to make slow but steady progress through Ukrainian defenses. These Russian advantages can be blunted.But as Ukrainian casualties mount, Kyiv and its partners cannot waste any time. If Ukraine’s international partners wait for changes beyond their direct control to happen before they take action, as they appear to be doing now, they will increase the chance of failure.

RUSSIA’S GRINDING ADVANCE

As things stand now, the Kremlin believes it can achieve its objectives in Ukraine militarily and is therefore not interested in immediate negotiations or withdrawal. Ukrainian forces have become dangerously stretched. They are now spread along a 600-mile frontline, and recruitment and training has failed to make up for the number of casualties in frontline units. Furthermore, Ukraine’s supplies of artillery, ammunition, tanks, and infantry fighting vehicles have been dwindling. The more it lacks these key types of equipment and weaponry, the more it must depend on infantry to hold the front, causing an associated rise in casualties.

Exploiting Ukraine’s manpower challenges along its eastern front, Russia has made gradual gains over the past few months. In the first half of October, Russian forces captured Vuhledar and broke into Toretsk—after two years of largely unsuccessful assaults on Ukraine’s Donbas defenses. Along with the seizure of key towns around the Ukrainian stronghold of Pokrovsk, these gains showed Russia establishing an effective formula for undermining Ukraine’s ability to hold positions. For Ukraine to be able to negotiate from a position of strength, it must end Russia’s advance and stabilize the front. But to do so, Ukraine’s military leadership will have to address several tactical challenges.

Russia’s current battlefield advantages rest on several capabilities. First, the thinning out of Ukraine’s tactical air defenses from late 2023—stocks of interceptors are perilously low, with only periodic resupplies—has allowed Russia to establish continuous and dense drone surveillance over the front. Russia now flies between 1,000 and 1,300 long-range reconnaissance drones over Ukrainian territory every day, providing Russia with valuable targeting data. Russian units use ballistic missiles to strike Ukraine’s air defenses if Ukraine tries to move them forward, as loitering munitions, uncrewed missiles designed to search and strike targets, scour the rear parts of Ukraine’s frontlines to destroy its artillery.

The threat from Russian loitering munitions and glide bombs forces Ukraine to keep its artillery away from the frontline, which in turn allows Russian forces to move their own artillery closer to the front, bringing them into range of Ukrainian logistics units, medics, and troops rotating behind the frontline. This pressure compels Ukrainian troops to remain in prepared fighting positions where they are safe from shrapnel. Meanwhile, Russia sends small groups forward to force the Ukrainians in fighting positions to expend ammunition and prevent them from resting. Once the fighting positions have been identified, the Russian forces call in airstrikes with 500- to 1,500-kilogram glide bombs, which can hit the positions with considerable accuracy. When the Ukrainians try to rotate their units, they are harassed by artillery. Then, when the defensive positions have been thinned out, the Russians attempt rapid assaults on motorbikes, often supported by armored vehicles, to get into the Ukrainian trenches.

This approach comes at a high cost in Russian troops, but for now, Russia has been able to absorb the casualties. Moscow seems to be wagering that it can achieve its objectives in the Donbas next year and impose a rate of casualties and material degradation on the Ukrainian military high enough that it will no longer be capable of preventing further advances, giving Russia considerable leverage in negotiations.

SHELLS, SOLDIERS, AND SUPPLY CHAINS

To reverse this dynamic, Ukraine will need to do several things at once. First, it needs to limit Russia’s battlefield surveillance capabilities. Ukraine has developed effective interceptor drones that can knock down Russian Orlan and Zala surveillance drones. But it needs assistance scaling up the production of these interceptors and fielding a sufficient density of radar and other sensor systems to make them effective. Ukraine’s Western partners should augment this effort by expanding support in electronic warfare to interfere with the passage of Russian reconnaissance data. Kyiv’s Western partners can help protect the Ukrainian artillery by working with them to modify heavy machine gun remote weapon stations mounted on vehicles so that they can accurately engage loitering munitions. This would allow Ukraine to bring its artillery farther forward and put Russian guns at risk.

At the same time, Ukraine needs to make that artillery far more effective, and for that, it needs more howitzers and ammunition. Ukrainian forces still need approximately 2.4 million rounds a year to hold the front. With sufficient artillery pieces and the means to protect them, Ukraine would be able to cover gaps in the front with fire, rather than by having to continuously man fighting positions all along the front, with the added cost in Ukrainian losses that entails.

Kyiv also needs to dig new defense lines behind its current positions, with experienced soldiers supervising to make sure that civilian construction workers build the positions properly. Although Kyiv has commissioned the construction of defense lines before, its assembly and siting of fighting positions have often been poor, and the designs have presumed a greater number of troops than are available to man them.

Building more defense lines is of limited value if there are not enough personnel to occupy them. Over the past year, attrition has led to a decline in experienced Ukrainian soldiers in many units, and the training pipeline has failed to provide enough personnel or give those available soldiers sufficient training. In response, the Ukrainian military has cannibalized units, taking groups of more capable soldiers away for particular tasks and rapidly rotating command groups, which has undermined unit cohesion.

Kyiv needs to fix its dysfunctional recruitment and training system. Training for new troops has been inadequate throughout the war. This is something the Ukrainian military has been slow to acknowledge and slower still in addressing. It is also an area where Ukraine’s partners can do little. Although over 15 of Ukraine’s partnershave provided training to Ukrainian units, the logistical burden of transporting troops out of Ukraine with their equipment makes it impossible to scale up these operations. Kyiv’s willingness to make the hard political decisions to mobilize personnel and extend training times will determine whether Ukraine’s partners see their contribution to Zelensky’s victory plan as part of a viable strategy.

Conversely, Ukraine’s international partners can do much to reduce Russia’s advantage in firepower. To mount a capable defense against Russian artillery and glide bomb attacks, Ukraine needs to be able to strike stockpiles and airfields. Funding for and support of Ukraine’s own long-range strike programs and aggressive targeting of Russia’s supply chains of raw materials, machine tooling, and critical components of weapons production can have a significant effect. Europe and the United States should be able to help Ukraine force Russia to burn through more of its munitions and to degrade the Russian defense industry’s capacity to replenish its supplies.

In combination, these steps could make further advances prohibitively costly for Russia, but they would need to be applied systematically and at scale. The Kremlin would also need to believe that they can be sustained. If such measures are delayed, the situation at the front risks deteriorating to a point where the Russians can begin to advance with impunity, and where the Ukrainians simply lack the personnel and equipment to block all the axes along which the Russians might push. Preventing that outcome is a prerequisite for Ukraine to be able to embark on successful negotiations.

Much more at the link!

Not quite sure exactly where in Ukraine this is:

Video of the destruction of the Russian BUK-M3 air defence system by Ukrainian heavy bomber drone. https://t.co/yMNb4V1zIn https://t.co/tIGC78rPQ6 pic.twitter.com/xOLMULWy6J

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 21, 2024

New technologies change the economy of war.
🇺🇦 drone, worth $500, destroyed a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system valued at $100 million.

📹: Unmanned Systems Forces pic.twitter.com/PuKz4Iemip

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 21, 2024

That is an excellent return on investment.

Not sure where exactly this is in Ukraine as well:

Machine gunner of the Ukrainian mobile air defense unit shots down Shahed kamikaze drone.https://t.co/JwLllDfpc8 pic.twitter.com/r0FMgq89TS

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 21, 2024

The Kursk cross border offensive:

Epic.

Ukrainan-operated M1 Abrams and M2 Bradley versus Russian forces in Russia’s Kursk region. pic.twitter.com/QZgP45pvhK

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) October 21, 2024

Pokrovsk:

Work in the Pokrovsk direction, the “Kazhan” UAV crew of the 2nd Battalion of the operational purpose “Ghost of Khortytsia” of the 15th Brigade of the operational purpose “Kara-Dag” of the National Guard of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/ehuVaLsaO2

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) October 21, 2024

Sumy:

A resident of Sumy region filmed a Shahed flying right over his house. pic.twitter.com/x0ND5Vufoi

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) October 21, 2024

Large swarm of Iranian/Russian Shahed kamikaze drones during todays Russian attack on Sumy region, Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/LmL9i6BDsd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 21, 2024

Attack of the Shahed kamikaze drones on Sumy. pic.twitter.com/RcyPqNZlFi

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 21, 2024

Donestsk Oblast:

Leopard 2A4 shot on Russian AFV. https://t.co/mSELgVWUZT pic.twitter.com/zX3Ij0Pthk

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) October 21, 2024

Kharkiv:

This is what KAB – glide bomb strike looks like. A tool of pure terror, launched from a Russian plane, reaches Kharkiv in seconds. No time to take cover. pic.twitter.com/QfmpsxT2hn

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 21, 2024

⚡️ In photos: Russians dropped bombs on Kharkiv, injured 13, including child. pic.twitter.com/vPb4gRUmfC

— Gwara (@GwaraMedia) October 21, 2024

Had a great opportunity to chat in detail with @FPRI’s Bob Hamilton about latest in Kharkiv and what can stop daily Russian glide bomb attacks https://t.co/wKTkp4It3e pic.twitter.com/Yyychu7jUo

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) October 21, 2024

Bob is a friend and former colleague from when I was assigned at USAWC. Prior to his retirement as a colonel, he was a Functional Area (FA) 48 E/C – a European/Eurasian foreign area officer (FAO).

Toretsk:

Toretsk is in ruins—Russian brutality has destroyed another Ukrainian city. pic.twitter.com/Pz28Aw9Rkv

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) October 20, 2024

Zaporizhzhia:

Funny how, from the first look, we immediately be like: this must be a place for kids. kindergarten maybe? Bright cheerful colours, trying to break through the rubble.

This is a kindergarten in Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia, and russia hit it with a missile attack this morning. pic.twitter.com/x4CrFLCzhS

— Margo Gontar 🔱 (@MargoGontar) October 21, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Так, я дійсно багатий❤️ #песпатрон

♬ original sound – Bob Marley

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Yes, I am really rich❤️ #песпатрон

Open thread!