Very Important Decisions Were Made; Time Will Reveal These Decisions on the Frontline – Address by the President of Ukraine

4 July 2024 – 20:39

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

A brief summary of the day.

I held a meeting of the Staff – a long one, and among the key topics in today’s reports were drones and electronic warfare. We discussed production in Ukraine, financing, supply, and usage. All the specifics – starting from the most in-demand items on the front, particularly FPV drones. Of course, we also paid maximum attention to our long-range drones. We listened to the reports by Commander Sukharevskyi, Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov, Minister for Strategic Industries Kamyshin and Commander of the Air Force Oleshchuk, and made very important decisions. Time will reveal these decisions on the frontline.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Umerov reported on the details of his trip to the United States, the negotiations, and most importantly, the implementation of the defense packages that have been announced but have not yet been delivered to Ukraine. We are pushing this logistics forward.

Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on the situation in the main directions, with most of the fighting occurring in the Pokrovsk direction, in our Donetsk region. However, we are strengthening every direction now – from Kharkiv to the southern regions. I am grateful to every brigade, every soldier and commander who are truly resilient and accurate. Especially the 35th separate marine brigade, the 44th and 55th separate artillery brigades, the 71st separate jaeger brigade, the 108th separate territorial defense brigade, and the 110th separate mechanized brigade. Thank you all for your results, warriors!

Today I also held a long meeting on the NATO Summit in Washington, which will take place next week. The summit must be strong – strong for Ukraine and all our partners. A meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council will also take place. We are working on the details of new decisions, new documents to be signed with our partners. There should be positive outcomes, including on air defense.

A new security agreement for Ukraine has also been prepared – a strong agreement that will truly provide support. We will continue to consistently strengthen our entire architecture of security agreements. This is what will guarantee our security until Ukraine joins NATO – a decision that is irreversible.

Today, I also presented state awards to Ukrainian police officers – the best ones, those who protect our country and people in the battles at the front. I thanked them for their service, I extended my gratitude to all their colleagues for their strength for the sake of Ukraine and congratulated them on the National Police Day.

And I would also like to express particular and special gratitude to all Americans – the United States, who are celebrating Independence Day today – for supporting our independence. Nations that endure such challenges for the sake of their freedom, for the sake of their future, understand each other best. I am grateful that for more than two years of full-scale war, we have been defending lives side by side with America and preventing Russia from expanding this war and jeopardizing the independence of other nations of the world. We must and can win this battle here in Ukraine, for our people, for justice for Ukraine, and for all who value life. President Biden, Congress – both parties, both chambers, and all our friends in America – thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

Happy Fourth of July to all our American friends!

We understand what independence means to you, Americans, and you can see that it means the same thing to us, Ukrainians.

We value independence equally and rely on our brave men and women to defend it. Together, we are creating…

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 4, 2024

Happy Fourth of July to all our American friends!

We understand what independence means to you, Americans, and you can see that it means the same thing to us, Ukrainians.

We value independence equally and rely on our brave men and women to defend it. Together, we are creating hope for people all over the world. A hope that freedom will always triumph.

True independence is always the result of won battles, and freedom must be reinforced with victories every time tyranny attempts to destroy it. Different generations of Americans and Ukrainians have witnessed this firsthand, and it is critical that current generations pass on a sense of confident independence and guaranteed freedom to their children and grandchildren.

On this day, we join our trusted ally in recognizing this most sacred value for both of our nations. We do so with deep gratitude for all of the support that the United States has provided and continues to provide to Ukraine in its fight for freedom, independence, and security – not only its own, but that of all free nations.

Thank you, America. Thank you to every American heart that beats in solidarity with brave Ukrainian hearts fighting for independence.

I wish the United States and all Americans strength, unity, and unwavering belief in the triumph of good over evil, liberty over tyranny, and life over terror.

#4thOfJuly

🇺🇸🇺🇦 We congratulate the American people on Independence Day!
We wish you prosperous future, peace, and success in defending our shared values of democracy and freedom.
Thank you for your staunch support in our fight against russian evil.
Happy 248th Birthday! pic.twitter.com/Gb6hd7w8Nt

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 4, 2024

The US:

The US announced additional details on a security assistance package for Ukraine valued at more than $2.3 billion.

The Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package valued at up to $150 million includes:
◾️Missiles for HAWK air defense systems
◾️Ammunition for HIMARS
◾️155mm and… pic.twitter.com/VobLmyKe1J

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 4, 2024

The US announced additional details on a security assistance package for Ukraine valued at more than $2.3 billion.

The Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) package valued at up to $150 million includes:
◾️Missiles for HAWK air defense systems
◾️Ammunition for HIMARS
◾️155mm and 105mm artillery rounds
◾️81mm mortar rounds
◾️TOW missiles
◾️Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems
◾️Small arms ammunition and grenades
◾️Demolitions equipment and munitions
◾️Tactical vehicles
◾️Tactical air navigation systems and aircraft support equipment
◾️Spare parts and other equipment

In addition, @DeptofDefense is announcing a significant package of air defense interceptors for PATRIOT and NASAMS systems using approximately $2.2 billion in Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) funds.

We are grateful to our American partners for standing firm with Ukraine. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸

Hungary:

Orban plans to visit Moscow tomorrow. Shocking, right? pic.twitter.com/JNuL9fYUDs

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) July 4, 2024

Time for Orban’s annual review.

The Financial Times has the details:

Viktor Orbán is expected to meet Vladimir Putin on Friday just after the Hungarian leader’s first wartime visit to Kyiv in what appears to be an attempt to act as a peace broker between Russia and Ukraine.

One Hungarian and two EU officials confirmed media reports that Orbán would meet Russia’s president on Friday.

Orbán has seen Putin twice since Russia’s leader ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and has repeatedly held up EU aid for Kyiv and sanctions on Russia. But as Hungary took over the rotating presidency of the EU on Monday, Orbán made a surprise visit to Ukraine, where he spent three hours with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“I think it is his strategy to listen to both parties,” said one person familiar with the matter.

Charles Michel, the outgoing president of the European Council which represents EU leaders, posted on X on Thursday that “the EU rotating presidency has no mandate to engage with Russia on behalf of the EU”, adding that “Russia is the aggressor, Ukraine is the victim. No discussions about Ukraine can take place without Ukraine.”

Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesperson, did not respond to a request for comment. Peskov declined to confirm or deny reports that Orbán would visit Moscow to Russian state newswires, but promised Putin’s schedule on Friday would be “eventful”.

Orbán’s visit would be the first by an EU leader to Moscow since Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer made an unsuccessful effort to broker an end to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in April 2022.

Hungary’s prime minister defied his allies last year when he travelled to Beijing to become the first western leader to meet Putin after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for war crimes against Russia’s leader.

The upcoming trip to Moscow was first reported by Szabolcs Panyi, an investigative journalist with the east European VSquare group.

More at the link.

Here’s the butcher’s bill from yesterday’s attack on Dnipro:

Now six dead and over 50 injured following yesterday’s Russian missile attack in Dnipro.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 4, 2024

Chasiv Yar:

Chasiv Yar, Donetsk region.
russia turned the city into ruins like everything else it touches.
The russian plague must be stopped. Ukrainian defenders need the world’s support to do it.

📷: @Liberov pic.twitter.com/e1vlEdJssD

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 4, 2024

Chasiv Yar just today.

The plague of Russian fascism is coming. pic.twitter.com/SwzV7dUhKg

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 4, 2024

The BBC takes a deep dive into Russia’s strategy, for lack of a better term, in their “meat” assaults.

On the frontlines, Ukrainian soldiers use a graphic term to describe the Russian tactics they face daily.

They call them “meat assaults”: waves of Russian soldiers coming at their defensive positions, sometimes nearly a dozen times in a day.

Lt Col Anton Bayev of the Khartia Brigade of Ukraine’s National Guard says wave after wave can arrive in just a few hours at front-line positions north of Kharkiv.

“The Russians use these units in most cases purely to see where our firing equipment is located, and to constantly exhaust our units,” he said.

“Our guys stand in positions and fight, and when four or five waves of the enemy come at you in a day, which you have to destroy without end, it is very difficult – not only physically, but also psychologically.”

This tactic has led to staggering Russian casualties since Moscow launched its latest offensive two months ago. Around 1,200 Russian soldiers were being killed or wounded every day in May and June, the highest rate since the beginning of the war, according to Western officials.

Those attacking are normally quickly spotted by drones above and the Russians leave their dead and wounded on the battlefield, Lt Col Bayev says. “Their main task is simply meat assaults and our total exhaustion.”

The tactic is a sign that Russia is seeking to make the most of its key advantage – numbers.

In Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, Captain Ivan Sekach from Ukraine’s 110th Brigade compares what he sees to a conveyor belt bringing Russians to be killed, although still allowing them to push forward slowly.

Russia benefits from a significantly larger population than Ukraine. Some of those in the assaults are former prisoners, but Russia is also able to recruit through making one-off payments, sometimes thousands of dollars.

And there have been complaints from the Russian side about “crippled regiments”, in which wounded soldiers are forced back into fighting. One video shows dozens of men, some on crutches, appealing to their commanders because they say they are wounded and require hospital treatment, but instead are being sent back into combat.

All of this, Western officials say, means Moscow can keep throwing soldiers, even if poorly trained, straight on to the front lines at the same rate they are being killed or wounded.

Ukraine could not match the Russian tactics even if it had the numbers, partly due to a different attitude towards casualties. A senior general was removed in recent weeks after complaints he was using what are often called Soviet tactics – throwing people at the front lines.

“There are a lot of criticisms because we have lost a lot of our guys because of Soviet-type mindset and strategy,” says Ivan Stupak, a former Security Service officer. “We are limited with manpower. We have no other options than thinking of our people.”

In the area around Kharkiv, Russian advances have been stopped. But in the east, Russia’s attritional approach is making slow but steady advances.

“Unfortunately there are a lot of Russians. And they are trying to conduct this rolling operation centimetre by centimetre, inch by inch, 100m per day, 200m per day. And unfortunately, it’s successful for them,” says Stupak.

There is frustration in Kyiv about the pace of Western support. One senior official complains they are receiving enough help to ensure they do not lose but not enough to make sure they win.

Western officials acknowledge 2024 has been a tough year for Ukraine, with delays in the arrival of US military aid creating a major strain on defences which has cost territory and lives.

“It seems like a so-called incremental approach,” Oleksandr Merezhko, chair of Ukraine’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, told the BBC.

“We receive little by little, and I get the impression that our Western allies give a little bit of weaponry, and they see what happens next, as if they’re afraid of what they refer to as escalation.”

The lifting of restrictions on using US weapons over the border into Russia has made a difference and helped stall Moscow’s assault on Kharkiv.

“If we have to fight with our hands tied behind our back, you know we’ll be only bleeding to death,” says Mr Merezhko. “That’s why it’s crucially important to be allowed to use long range missiles in the territory of Russia, and we already have results.”

But a Ukrainian official said the use of longer range strikes into Russia had only been a palliative and was not fundamentally altering the dynamic of the war.

“We are driving towards stalemate,” former security service officer Ivan Stupak says, acknowledging that this may lead eventually to the “bitter pill” of some form of negotiation.

Ukrainians fear without hard security guarantees – such as Nato membership, rather than vague talk of a bridge to such status – Russia may simply regroup and attack again in the future.

Vladimir Putin is counting on wearing down Ukraine on the battlefield and outlasting the West’s resolve to provide support. As well as launching guided aerial bombs against frontline positions and civilians in Kharkiv, Moscow has also targeted energy infrastructure across the country, leading to increasingly frequent power blackouts and concerns over what winter might bring.

November’s US election adds another layer of uncertainty, along with a question mark as to whether the European Union could realistically pick up any slack.

For Lt Col Anton Bayev on the frontline near Kharkiv, the ability to strike into Russia may have been vital, but he now sees his enemy adapting its tactics – and not just with “meat assaults”.

His losses now come from mortars and glide bombs, while his Ukrainian forces remain short of ammunition.

“We need everything, and there is always a lack,” he says.

“The boys are holding on. We’re all hanging on. It’s hard, but everyone knows the price and why it’s all being done.”

For want of a nail!

A long list of professors of international relations and think tank denizens have published a letter via Politico making Putin’s argument opposing NATO membership for Ukraine.

Signatories include @PatPorter76, @PerkovichG, @gavinbwilde, @WCWohlforth & others. https://t.co/xca8LJnMhO

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 4, 2024

The question is whether it is possible to oppose NATO entering a hot war involving Russia while, in a post-war context, favouring the threat of war in response to a hypothetical repeat Russian invasion. I’m not sure the two are necessarily contradictory. https://t.co/uxulWSiQg1

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 4, 2024

That’s a pretty important clarification; sorry for not capturing the nuance. That said, the arguments appear to be those that would apply at any time in the future?

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) July 4, 2024

We cannot pledge to defend a country we cannot defend. A defensible UKR could emerge from some settlement.

— William Wohlforth (@WCWohlforth) July 4, 2024

If these signatories think that the US, let alone NATO, couldn’t defend Ukraine against Russia if it became necessary, then either the US military is in much, much worse shape than I know it to be or they are worried about other things. One, of course, would be Russia escalating up to the tactical use of lower yield nuclear weapons if they start losing. Another is that a number of the signatories are from the Quincy Institute, which was set up to exploit the grief of a bona fide war hero and a deep thinker. He too has signed this letter, but that is not surprising given his foreign policy views. You can click through and read the article and judge for yourself whether their argument has any real legitimacy.

If you were wondering what kind of condition Russian equipment is in, here you go. Though this might just be the result of using that dodgy North Korean ammunition.

Detonation of ammunition on a Russian MT-LB with installed S-60 anti-aircraft gun. pic.twitter.com/fa0DH4a6Gj

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 4, 2024

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Ukrainian cats stand in defense of the mental health of our warriors.

📹: shaybaboy / Instagram pic.twitter.com/LrrdMH9vVD

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 4, 2024

Open thread!