Two quick housekeeping notes. First, Rosie is doing great in her second week off between the second and third round of chemo. Thank you all for your good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.
Second, Secretary Blinken clearly articulated the US’s policy – as in the US’s objectives – in regard to Ukraine’s self defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion. Since everyone is quite raw over the events of the past week, I’m going to deal with that after the jump. Basically, I’m going to compare and contrast with what Blinken articulated with what President Zelenskyy articulated in his interview with the Philadelphia Inquirer, which we covered the other night.
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We Are Doing Our Best to Increase Electricity Imports, and This Should Be a European Decision — the Address by the President of Ukraine
2 July 2024 – 18:18
I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!
Today is an eventful day.
The visit of the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, to Ukraine – for the first time in many years and the entire period of war. And what’s more, it comes right after the beginning of Hungary’s EU Presidency. This is a clear signal of how important it is for all of us in Europe to stay united and take joint steps. We have talked a lot about the path to peace, specifically to a just peace, a lasting, and honest one. I thanked him for participating in the Peace Summit and for supporting the Communiqué. I described what we have already accomplished in our work with partners between the Summits, in preparations for the second Peace Summit. We have some good achievements, and more will follow. I have invited Hungary and Prime Minister Orbán to join the respective efforts. We also have good bilateral results. In general, we see that this is a completely different relationship between Ukraine and Hungary: concrete, and we take into account mutual interests. We agreed on various details – economic and political – to be addressed by our teams. And a very important thing is that we will outline our relations, our achievements in a new document – an agreement that will define good neighborliness for Ukraine and Hungary.
The second thing for today. I spoke with Mark Rutte, and today there was a change of Government in the Netherlands. Mark will continue to work in the North Atlantic Alliance. I thanked him for his support over these years: the Netherlands, without exaggeration, helped save thousands and thousands of lives of our people. Ukraine will always be grateful for that. I also wish the new Government of the Netherlands, the new Prime Minister, success and truly effective leadership.
There were also several important reports today. Just now, the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service delivered a report. A clear range of issues – about the threats we face and the opportunities we can seize. There are some good prospects.
In addition, there was a long, very detailed report by the Prime Minister of Ukraine. Now, our Government officials have begun to work extensively in the regions, including the Donetsk region. This is something we discussed after my visit to the region. There are many problems there, including social and purely infrastructural: water, reconstruction, and providing for people. Now, we already have draft decisions from the Government in various areas – on what is needed and what will be solved. In the same way, the Government officials will continue to work on other regions, all those that have particular issues because of the war.
The Prime Minister reported on defensive measures for energy facilities: active defense, electronic warfare and everything else. He also reported on reconstruction and our work with European partners to expand electricity imports to Ukraine. We are now consuming the full volume of imports agreed with the EU, and I am grateful to all our neighbors for this assistance. We are doing our best to increase imports, and this should be a European decision. Our Government officials are working on the respective approval.
I have instructed Deputy Prime Minister Fedorov to present me with an analysis of telecom operators at the next meeting of the Staff, showing what is being done to ensure communication during power outages and which telecom operators are not complying with the relevant decisions. I have also instructed the Minister of Energy to inform people literally on a daily basis about the progress of work in the energy sector, about the existing deficits, and about the country’s efforts to fill them. The Government must also work much more actively to ensure that our people and our businesses have more opportunities to buy, produce and install all the equipment they need to get through this difficult period. I have also instructed the Minister of Defense of Ukraine, who is currently visiting the United States, to seek specific dates: when the additional Patriot systems, the ones we have agreed with our partners, will be delivered.
I thank everyone who really works hard for Ukraine and Ukrainians! I thank everyone who believes in Ukraine, who brings the results Ukraine needs closer!
Glory to Ukraine!
US @SecDef: Today’s PDA package for Ukraine will provide more air defense interceptors, anti-tank weapons and other critical munitions. It will also enable the US to procure more Patriot, NASAMS air defense interceptors, which will be provided on an accelerated timeline.
— Ostap Yarysh (@OstapYarysh) July 2, 2024
🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at more than $2,3 billion.
Our warriors will be strengthened with additional air defense interceptors, anti-tank weapons as well as ammunition for the Patriot, and other air defense systems.
Thank you for… pic.twitter.com/AkicrApMdp
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) July 2, 2024
🇺🇸 @DeptofDefense announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at more than $2,3 billion.
Our warriors will be strengthened with additional air defense interceptors, anti-tank weapons as well as ammunition for the Patriot, and other air defense systems.
Thank you for supporting Ukraine in our fight for freedom.
Together, to victory!
🇺🇦🤝🇺🇸
But what does victory mean?
President Zelenskyy, in his interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer, articulated victory for Ukraine as the return of all Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, Ukraine in NATO as a deterrent to future Russian aggression, and Russia unable to try again. That’s the bottom line up front. The longer answers from the interview are below.
In a wide-ranging interview last week, Zelensky laid out how Ukraine could still win if the West can lose its fear of Vladimir Putin and recognize the Russian leader’s weakness.
Zelensky defined what victory would mean. And he insisted that direct peace talks with Moscow wouldn’t end the war but would encourage further Russian aggression against Ukraine, Europe — and America.
I asked Zelensky whether he believed Biden wanted Ukraine to achieve victory.
“Yes,” he answered quickly. “I think that for the United States it is important and for Europe and for many countries. But we can have different ideas toward the word victory.”
“The West wanted to deny Putin the opportunity to fully occupy Ukraine and to put the aggressor in his place. I think for them it is the victory already,” Zelensky said.
“But for us,” he continued, growing emotional, “for the people at the front line who lost their brothers at arms, the civilians who lost their relatives, those who fled abroad but have husbands on the front line — for us, victory is a moment of satisfaction.
“We are grateful that the West did not let Russia occupy us [fully], but we need justice.”
In other words, Zelensky, who still maintains a 60% popularity rating among Ukrainians, must listen to the voices of his people and his soldiers, who won’t accept surrendering one fifth of their land to Russia after all they have suffered. That burden is visible in the lines on his face.
In practical terms, the first part of Zelensky’s “real victory” is “not to allow the full destruction of everything Ukrainian” by Putin.
The second part of “real victory,” Zelensky specified, “is security for today and for future Ukrainian generations, and the impossibility of the repetition of aggression.
“We should be in the European Union for economic security. And we should be in NATO for physical security. If we don’t have these two, there is a huge risk for us that the enemy will come back,” he said. Ukraine has been invited to start EU accession talks, but the process is lengthy.
Yet Zelensky fears that the West — especially the United States — is still leery of pushing for real victory. “Everybody is still afraid that Russia can split apart, everybody is afraid of what will happen to Russia without Putin and whether it will stay as it is or get worse.”
As a result, he said, Putin is free to pursue his strategy of taking as much as possible. “Any step forward on our territory, any occupation, any village even fully destroyed is positive for them, because it is important for them to bargain as much as possible,” he noted.
At the opportune moment (especially if Donald Trump wins the presidency),“Putin can then say ‘we are ready’ [for talks] and while they are ready, they always need a pause.
“A cease-fire is the best option for the Russians so they can prepare for taking even more,” Zelensky said.
Putin’s victory would be incompatible with life for Ukraine, Zelensky told me. “Bit by bit, they are washing away Ukrainian independence. They take territory, then legislate [to annex it] or invent economic or security unions with Moscow, and then they dissolve the country in this mud, in this Russian mud.
“That is why we need to be strong, not to lose our country.”
The only possible negotiations Zelensky envisions would be talks based on his own peace plan calling for full withdrawal from Ukraine, reparations and justice for Russian war crimes.
But what about Trump, who wants to cut off military aid to Ukraine and says the can war can be over in 24 hours? The GOP presidential candidate has said he’d demand a cease-fire from both sides and force them to “negotiate,” effectively giving Putin what he wants and preventing Ukraine from taking back more occupied land. Not to mention that Putin has broken every accord between Russia and Ukraine in the last three decades.
“If Trump has such a model [to end the war in 24 hours], well, everyone would like to finalize the war. Maybe even in one hour would be better,” Zelensky joked. “But if the idea is to give up our territories, no, it will not solve the issue. It will not work; it will not lead to peace [globally] or between Ukraine and Russia.
“What is needed is to give us security. Membership in NATO is good not only for Ukraine; it would provide security for Russia,” Zelensky said. The Ukrainian border would be fixed, no further Russian invasion could cause another war, and “the world wouldn’t be afraid that Putin would come back again.”
Sadly, the upcoming 75th NATO anniversary summit July 9-11 in Washington will not offer Ukraine a clear path to membership. “We understand that the White House is not ready to give us the invitation,” Zelensky said with a weary shrug. And Trump is saying the war is NATO’s fault.
“Unfortunately, this is the policy of one step forward, two steps back,” the Ukrainian leader said, regretfully. “I don’t think this is the policy of world leaders. These are the very cautious steps of my de-miners in the minefield.
“If the United States is afraid to annoy Putin, and this is the reason why we are not invited, then we ask our strategic partners to give us what would protect us: Patriots [anti-missile systems], a substantial number of F-16s, and the opportunity to use weapons [inside Russia].
“If NATO is not ready to protect us, and to take us into the alliance,” Zelensky said firmly, “then we ask NATO to give us everything so we can protect ourselves.”
At a foreign policy forum at the Brooking Institute yesterday, Secretary of State Blinken articulated the US vision:
Blinken on Ukraine: What does success mean, for us? I think success is very clear: It’s a Ukraine that is a strong, successful country, increasingly integrated with the West. & a country that can stand on its own feet militarily, economically, democratically. & we have the…
— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) July 1, 2024
Blinken on Ukraine: What does success mean, for us? I think success is very clear: It’s a Ukraine that is a strong, successful country, increasingly integrated with the West. & a country that can stand on its own feet militarily, economically, democratically. & we have the policies in place to make sure that is exactly what happens.
As has been the case when other senior Biden nat-sec officials have provided answers as to what success or victory looks like, there is nothing articulated about a Ukraine free of Russian occupation or a Ukraine where all territory has been cleared of Russian occupation and returned to Ukrainian sovereign control. And this is where President Zelenskyy’s frustration comes in. Because even if you could negotiate a settlement with Putin/Russia that was worth the paper it was printed on, which you can’t, if any part of Ukraine is still occupied by Russia then Ukraine can never join NATO. The only way to actually deter Russia in the future is for Ukraine to be in NATO, but Ukraine cannot join NATO until it reclaims all of the Ukrainian territory that Russia occupies.
Putin knows this. As we’ve gone over time and time again, part of Putin’s strategy is to create strategic time. To drag things on long enough that his catspaws and allies come to power in the US and in the EU and NATO member states and give him what he wants: an end to the military, economic, and financial aid to Ukraine and relief from sanctions. LePen coming to power in France would be a nice start, but what Putin really wants is a second Trump presidency.
Who could ask for more?
“As part of a plan for Ukraine, Trump is mulling a deal whereby NATO commits to no further eastward expansion — specifically into Ukraine and Georgia — and negotiates withPutin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep”. https://t.co/F5LXOPdVWD— Vladimir Frolov (@vfroloff) July 2, 2024
Politico has the details:
A swift resolution of the two-and-a-half-year Ukraine conflict would also likely play a key role in Trump’s plans for NATO. As part of a plan for Ukraine that has not been previously reported, the presumptive GOP nominee is mulling a deal whereby NATO commits to no further eastward expansion — specifically into Ukraine and Georgia — and negotiates with Russian President Vladimir Putin over how much Ukrainian territory Moscow can keep, according to two other Trump-aligned national security experts.
The first test of Trump’s NATO intentions, should he win another term, would be how he handles Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine. The U.S. has stepped up its central role in NATO since the Ukraine war began, sending 20,000 additional troops to Europe (making for a total of 100,000) in addition to new air, land, maritime, cyber and space capabilities. According to the two Trump-aligned national security experts familiar with the thinking inside Trump’s inner circle, the presumptive GOP nominee is now considering making a deal with Putin on which countries could join NATO, particularly Ukraine and Georgia. Such a plan would scuttle NATO’s vague promise of future membership to Ukraine — a policy that Biden has continued, albeit without committing to a timeline.
In April, The Washington Post reported that Trump’s tentative plan also involves pressing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia.
“I would expect a very quick deal to end the conflict,” said Kevin Roberts, the president of The Heritage Foundation, the influential Trump-aligned think tank that has produced Project 2025. Roberts said in an interview that he could convey no inside knowledge of Trump’s plans.
But according to one of the national security experts familiar with Trump’s thinking, speaking on condition of anonymity, Trump “would be open to something foreclosing NATO expansion and not going back to the 1991 borders for Ukraine. That would be on the table. But that doesn’t mean surrendering any other possibility, including supplying large amounts of weapons to Ukraine.”
Trump himself has not publicly detailed his plans for Ukraine, but on the campaign trail he has repeatedly vowed to end the war as one of his first tasks — “before I even arrive at the Oval Office, shortly after we win the presidency,” he declared at a June 22 rally in Philadelphia. Asked on a June 21 podcast whether he was willing to take NATO expansion into Ukraine off the table, Trump replied — in remarks that went largely unreported — that promising NATO membership to Ukraine had been a “mistake” and “really why this war started.” Many in the Trump camp openly prefer a non-NATO Ukraine. “NATO has already expanded well beyond what we need for an anti-hegemonic coalition” against Russia, said Colby.
On June 14, Putin said Russia would be ready to negotiate an end to the war if Ukraine renounced any ambition to join NATO and withdrew troops from the four regions that Moscow has claimed as its own. Asked in his June 27 debate with Biden if such terms were acceptable, Trump replied, “No, they’re not acceptable. But look, this is a war that never should have started.”
Critics say pressuring Ukraine to surrender territory would only vindicate Putin’s horrific and murderous land grab. But Trump has made it clear he has as little love for Ukraine as he does for NATO, telling House Speaker Mike Johnson during his visit to Capitol Hill in June that Ukraine is “never going to be there for us” and “we should pay OUR TROOPS more instead of sending $60b to Ukraine,” according to a tweet from Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz. Another GOP representative, Don Bacon, told reporters in recounting the same conversation that Trump was dismissive of Kyiv’s goal of driving out the Russians, which has been Biden’s unstinting policy. “He’s like, if Ukraine wins, what will be the benefit?” Bacon said.
Beyond that, Trump’s pledge not to expand NATO may be far more palatable to European allies than many people realize. In May, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was blunt in saying he didn’t think Ukraine could become part of NATO for perhaps 30 years. And on June 17, Stoltenberg indicated that a cease-fire wouldn’t be enough to set NATO membership for Ukraine in motion. “We have to be certain that this is peace and not just a pause,” he said. “We need assurances that this is the end, it stops here.”
Zelenskyy has clearly articulated what a successful battlefield outcome must be for Ukraine: the return of all Russian occupied Ukrainian territory to Ukrainian sovereignty, Ukraine in NATO to deter future Russian aggression, and Russia paying reparations to make Ukraine whole – though I expect this last one might be negotiable if the first two objectives are met. The Biden administration has articulated less than that, despite how Politico has framed their policy. A potential second Trump presidency rewards Putin for his genocidal re-invasion both in leaving significant portions of Ukraine occupied and in Russian control and giving Putin time to rebuild and reequip so he can come back and finish the job – the complete occupation, domination, and subjugation of Ukraine to Russia and the replacement of Ukrainian culture with his perverse, ahistorical, mythologized Ruskiy Mir.
The consequences of these strategic mismatches in objectives between Ukraine and the Biden administrationare existential for Ukraine. They may also by existential for the Baltic states, Poland, Moldova, Georgia, and Romania. They are high, though not existential, for the other EU member states.
Speaking of Putin’s catspaws, here’s the video of President Zelenskyy’s joint press conference with Viktor Orban:
Orban update from Kyiv: The Hungarian PM said the war “deeply affects European security” and said he suggested to Zelensky that Ukraine propose a ceasefire that could pave the way for full peace talks with Russia. 🤔
Our @FT story: https://t.co/te1WKwIRd7— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) July 2, 2024
Of course he did. Here’s the details from The Financial Times:
Orbán met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other senior officials just days after the leaders spoke at an EU summit in Brussels. In a video shared on social media after the talks in Ukraine, he said the war “deeply affects European security” and had suggested to Zelenskyy that Ukraine propose a deadline for a ceasefire that would pave the way for full peace talks with Russia.
Zelenskyy said the leaders focused on “how to bring a just and lasting peace closer”. He added that talks on “the most fundamental issues of our relations”, including trade, cross-border co-operation, infrastructure and energy, would form the basis of a new “bilateral document”.
Orbán, the EU and Nato’s most prominent critic of military aid for Kyiv and one of the few western leaders to have met Russian President Vladimir Putin since the 2022 invasion, arrived in Kyiv a day after Hungary assumed the rotating presidency of the EU Council.
“We are at Ukraine’s service during the Hungarian presidency. We will help in any way we can,” Orbán said on Tuesday.
Péter Krekó, director of the Budapest-based Political Capital think-tank, said: “As EU presidency holder, Orbán wants to shed the scandalous image and show he is a loyal member of the club. He has not exactly done a U-turn just yet — his vetoism and obstructionism will take longer to unwind — but this may start a positive spiral.
“That will not mean him abandoning the message of an immediate ceasefire and peace [in Ukraine] — any peace deal is likely to require a compromise from both sides and Orbán is ready to reap the political reward if his long-held view prevails.”
During the talks, Zelenskyy also urged all EU leaders to step up their military support to Ukraine.
More at the link.
India:
The Chief of the GRU is in India https://t.co/F5BnP724AP
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) July 2, 2024
Lt Gen DS Rana, #DG_DIA, #HQ_IDS_India interacted with his counterpart, Admiral Igor Kostyukov, the Chief of Main Intelligence Directorate and Deputy Chief of General Staff of Russian Federation Armed Forces.
Discussions held on areas of mutual security concern and strengthening of defence intelligence ties, exploring common areas of security interest relevant to #DIA and #RFArmedForces.@DefenceMinIndia
@SethSanjayMP
@giridhararamane
@IndEmbMoscow
@RusEmbIndia
Mirgorod air base, Ukraine:
This is just stupid
🇷🇺Russian Forces, using a Cluster Missile and a Iskander-M SRBM, managed to destroyed 2x UkrAF SU-27/(UB?), and damage 4 other SU-27s, which were all parked in the open at Mirgorod Airbase
I have no words, whoever is in charge of the base, needs to get fired pic.twitter.com/pvZRRqdbyV
— 🇵🇱WarVehicleTracker🇵🇱 (@WarVehicle) July 1, 2024
There must be responsibility for chronically allowing such things to happen to Ukraine’s air force.
Systemic negligence may get us all six feet under in this war. pic.twitter.com/MBp1kIzKQQ
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) July 1, 2024
The Kharkiv front via the Thread Reader app:
The situation in the Kharkiv direction remains difficult. The commander of the Achilles UAV unit writes –
“Information is now spreading that the occupiers are allegedly retreating from Vovchansk and Hlyboke. I want to emphasize that over the past year I cannot recall a period
1/7when the enemy retreated. Heavy and difficult battles continued in all the territories that we managed to return and de-occupy. On every part of the front, we have counter-battles. After recapturing one or another position, the enemy necessarily counterattacks with the aim of
2/7regaining the lost positions. The enemy has more forces and means. So when you hear that the situation is stabilized, or that the Defense Forces have a tactical initiative, you should understand that at this time very difficult things are still going on”. Despite the fact
3/7that the situation in most parts of the front is stabilizing, we must not forget that Russia is not stopping its offensive. Russia is using everything it has. Yes, it has problems with equipment, people and ammunition, but it throws all available means into the battle,
4/7without ceasing the onslaught on the Ukrainian forces. There are small advances in the areas of Avdiivka and Ocheretyne. Russia is running out of armored vehicles, but they are switching to buggies and motorcycles. The effectiveness of this tactic is debatable, but there are
5/7many of them. Russia always takes with mass and this tactic has not changed throughout the war. If there is less armor, then more infantry goes into battle. The entire Russian industry is put on a war footing. This is not enough to make a major breakthrough, but it is enough
6/7to ensure that the onslaught is incessant. Russia will not win this war, but there is still a long struggle ahead and our support for Ukraine must not cease.
7/7
Russian occupied Crimea:
/2. POV of the footage of the aftermath of the strike, 245km from the frontline:
(44.5061872, 33.5407257) pic.twitter.com/WyIQywHTbv— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 2, 2024
About yesterday’s strike on Crimea:
“In the evening, 07/01/2024, a missile strike was carried out on a facility of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the area of Cape Fiolent, Sevastopol.
The strike was carried out using cruise missiles of an unidentified type.
The target of the strike was the Shahed-136/Geran-2 UAV warehouse.
The approximate amount of destroyed units is 90.There is no information about casualties among personnel.“
For you Patriot enthusiasts:
Rare footage of the work of the MIM-104 Patriot air defence system in Ukraine. https://t.co/uqrXerIe2B
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 2, 2024
Here’s a machine translation of the original tweet:
“First to fire,” say MIM-104 Patriot operators 🔥
And we say: “Thank you!”. Thank you for protecting the Ukrainian sky and for protecting all of us. Already tomorrow is the Day of Anti-Aircraft Missile Troops of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine! 🫶
🫶🏻 But you can congratulate the fighters with a donation now using the link: https://bit.ly/3xJwCbb
Kursk, Russia:
Russian 3754th Central Aviation Technical Base on fire in Kursk. 95km from the frontline. https://t.co/o81IeYYMVl pic.twitter.com/cEmE3Yt8vy
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) July 2, 2024
Here’s a detailed thread on Russian armor losses in Ukraine. From the Thread Reader app:
1/ So, as my quote in @newsweek is touring around, I may add a 🧶 on the context.
The topic of the whole debate centered around high 🇷🇺 losses of materiel, armoured vehicles in particular, and whether or not Moscow can replace it.2/ The article in newsweek quotes this article in @SZ, which is behind paywall and in 🇩🇪. So I guess no one has read it.
Unfortunately the German title is “Putin is running out of tanks”, which is not exactly what the article is abut.Putin gehen die Panzer ausAnalysen von Satellitenbildern offenbaren, dass die Bestände schwinden. Der Materialmangel wird für Russland zum ernsthaften Problem. Wie lange hält der Aggressor noch durch?https://www.sueddeutsche.de/projekte/artikel/politik/russland-ukraine-panzer-materialmangel-satellitenbilder-e168870/?reduced=true2/ “Panzer” in 🇩🇪 also can mean “armured vehicle”, and that is what we talked about specifically: APCs, IFVs, SPGs and MBTs;
Süddeutsche did an interview with me and @HighMarsed, also included work from @Jonpy99 and @kalenskyj on depleting Russian vehicle stockpiles.3/ Yes, tanks (particularly T80s) deplete as well, but armoured transport (MT-LB, BMP-1/2) are depleting the fastest. Self-propelled guns deplete, especially their barrels at an extraordinary rate.
I don’t know why everyone debates MBT again, the support arms deplete faster.4/ And for all the Putinversteher trolls, the depleting depots can be observed from space, and the accounts mentioned above have put out enough good threads on this. Won’t repeat it.5/ While we already see some shortages of armoured vehicles on the 🇷🇺 side, particularly on the #Kharkiv front, this may become more critical for Russia maybe already in 2025 but certainly in 2026.6/ But what it means for the war, is a much less straigt forward issue. It depends on the operative tasks for the 🇷🇺 Army in 2024/25 and supplies from 🇨🇳🇰🇵.
Will they be tasked with another large offensive? That is what is driving up losses now.7/ Or will Russia dial down ground offensives and see what it can gain politically from Trump et al?
Also will 🇷🇺 be able to source armoured vehicles from 🇰🇵 or 🇨🇳 at sufficient quantity? 🇨🇳 has larger stocks of surplused vehicles from troop reductions in the 2000s & 2010s.8/ But given the threat of sanctions, Beijing does not provide whole systems (only subcomponents).
The credibility of the sanctions threat very much depends on the domestic unity on the matter in 🇺🇸&🇪🇺. So nothing carved in stone, unfortunately.9/ But at least in D.C. 🇺🇸-🇨🇳 relations are the rare exception of bipartisan agreement. So I am not too pesimist either.
For 🇺🇦 increasing lethality and desrtoying as much 🇷🇺 equipment as possible is the no-brainer now.10/ But will high casualties and material shortages alone force Putin into real negotiation? I don’t think so.
He could dial down the offense, conduct a missile-war against 🇺🇦 to reode morale, combine this with Minsk type fake negotiations to keep the West busy.11/ Without additional pressure, he will not cede his ambition. Pressure can be economic, military, etc.
The 2026 to 2027 timeline shuld give Western planners and defence industry a task: to exploit Russia’s weakness then, 🇺🇦 needs to be stronger & better than 2023.12/ Ukraine has been through two mass casualty events: one the counter-offensive of 2023, the second the artillery ammunition slump in 2024.
Recovering and re-constituting forces will take considerable time. This time 🇺🇦 will need to stay on the defensive, attritting 🇷🇺.13/ 🇺🇦 also needs time to absorb tactical lessons of the then offensive, and drive technological innovation in force-integration and uncrewed systems in areas necessary to resume offensive action.
I tried to map this for @ecfr here:Beyond the counter-offensive: Attrition, stalemate, and the future of the war in UkraineThe Ukraine conflict is a war of attrition – that Russia is set to win. Europeans must act now to increase supplies, helping Ukraine not only survive…https://ecfr.eu/publication/beyond-the-counter-offensive-attrition-stalemate-and-the-future-of-the-war-in-ukraine/14/ Defence alone will not end the war. As I argued in my @EuroResilience #battlefieldbreakdown, we need to synchronise diplomatic & economic pressure with 🇺🇦 military support and preparation to achieve strategic results.
15/ We debate a lot of tactic these days. But after the 🇺🇸 presidential elections, we need to strategise.
For good or bad …Sorry for the typos, in a hurry
That’s enough for tonight.
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War for Ukraine Day 860: Compare and ContrastPost + Comments (55)
