This Day and Week Added Support to Our Warriors, State, Diplomacy, and the Peace Summit – Address by the President

9 May 2024 – 20:41

Dear Ukrainians!

The key points for today.

I held a meeting with the leadership of the Ukrainian Defense Forces: Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi, Chief of the General Staff Barhylevych, and Defense Minister Umerov. We discussed how to speed up the supply of weapons from our partners and how to act now, with the available forces and means, with the available weapons, to achieve the results we need. We see what the occupier is preparing for. There will be a response. And I thank all our soldiers and commanders, every unit that is effectively operating at the front and destroying the occupier. The Kraken unit of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine deserves special gratitude for its fighting these days. I am grateful to you, guys! And to everyone who gives Ukraine the result. The result we need so much. Today, I have also appointed Oleksandr Trepak as a new commander of the Special Operations Forces. He is a decent man, a strong warrior, a Hero of Ukraine.

The second for today. The visit of the President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola to Ukraine. It is very symbolic that today, on Europe Day, our conversation with journalists was interrupted by an air raid alert. This is what the Russian Nazis want to replace life with, not just in Ukraine, but in our entire Europe, wherever their terrorist strikes reach. They will neither intimidate nor break Ukraine, nor will they break all those who bravely and resolutely help us defend life. Madam President of the European Parliament is exactly the kind of leader who has been with us since the first days of this war, and has always supported us as much as we need. Today, we discussed with Roberta what other political and defense steps are needed to ensure that we can truly withstand all the attacks and thwart Russia’s offensive and destabilization plans.

Today I would also like to thank all the participants of the Second Summit of Ukrainian and European Communities held here in Kyiv. The countries of the European Union, as well as the United States, were represented. It is very important that there are cooperation agreements between our communities and the communities and companies of partner countries: Germany, Poland, Moldova, Slovakia, Austria, Romania, and the United States. These include the development of healthcare in Ukraine, rehabilitation opportunities in our communities, as well as the development of transport, recovery. I am grateful to all the participants of the Summit – every community, every country that stands with Ukraine, filling each of the agreements reached with real cooperation.

And of course, there was a lot of international communication today. The President of the European Council, Charles Michel. Also, I have just spoken with the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. We are actively preparing the next stage of rapprochement with the European Union for June – we anticipate the adoption of the negotiating framework and the actual start of negotiations on Ukraine’s accession. Our country, our people deserve this. And the European Union needs this step not just politically, as it is the lifeblood of the European Union to be a European project that leaves no one outside the EU, no one who truly professes European values. And I was also pleased today to hear the full support of our European friends for the Peace Summit – I am grateful to every leader who has already confirmed their participation in the Summit and is willing to help us effectively in engaging leaders.

Today, in conversations, I personally invited the Presidents of Moldova, the Czech Republic and Ghana, as well as the Prime Minister of Ireland to the Summit. Of course, we also discussed our bilateral agenda. Moldova – we have obvious common challenges and help each other. The Czech Republic – I expressed my gratitude for the initiative on artillery, and the most important thing now is the full and immediate implementation of the initiative. Ghana – the world relies on the stability and development of Africa. We have recently opened an embassy in Ghana, and this country now has a new accredited ambassador in Kyiv. Together we can add more strength to our parts of the world. Ireland – I thanked them for their support of our state and people, I thanked them for the fact that Ireland is really trying to help us politically, and also in the protection of life – in the demining of our land. And this support will increase – more territory of Ukraine will be cleared of Russian mines and ordnance.

So, this day and this week added support to our warriors, our state, our diplomacy. and to the Peace Summit. Every day in the diplomatic marathon, we are making the Peace Summit and the approach of peace a reality. Thank you to all the leaders who help!

I thank everyone who defends Ukraine and life! I thank everyone who gives us strength!

Glory to Ukraine!

Two Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants will not be functioning due to damage caused by the Russian missile attack on May 8th – Ukrhydroenergo.

"To date, all hydro generation has suffered devastating damage. Destroyed equipment requires considerable efforts for repair and… https://t.co/sCqdNG0LnU pic.twitter.com/k0Zd6gztfA

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 9, 2024

Two Ukrainian hydroelectric power plants will not be functioning due to damage caused by the Russian missile attack on May 8th – Ukrhydroenergo.

“To date, all hydro generation has suffered devastating damage. Destroyed equipment requires considerable efforts for repair and restoration, as well as significant financial resources,” Ukrhydroenergo added.

Never? Again.

 

Call sign "Chortenia" (Little Devil) is a combat medic in the 112th @TDF_UA Brigade.
She worked as a senior nurse in civilian life. And now her mission is to save the lives of Ukrainian warriors—during only one month, she rescued 43 wounded soldiers. pic.twitter.com/sWSSjnYZfH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 9, 2024

The reason:

"We wait. We believe. We pray" – so many Ukrainian families are worried day and night, we all pray for our Defenders to come home safely.

"When you're home, when we're together, we're more than family. We are a nation united around you."

📹: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine pic.twitter.com/ejuplV9RRF

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 9, 2024

Germany:

⚡️Germany to buy 3 HIMARS for Ukraine.

Germany will buy three HIMARS multiple rocket launchers for Ukraine, the country's defense minister announced on May 9. Speaking during a trip to Washington, Boris Pistorius said they would be purchased from the U.S. and handed over to…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 9, 2024

⚡️Germany to buy 3 HIMARS for Ukraine.

Germany will buy three HIMARS multiple rocket launchers for Ukraine, the country’s defense minister announced on May 9. Speaking during a trip to Washington, Boris Pistorius said they would be purchased from the U.S. and handed over to Kyiv.

Washington, DC (sort of):

⚡️Bloomberg: Pentagon blocks Russian military from accessing Starlink in Ukraine.

The U.S. Pentagon is preventing the Russian military from using Starlink internet terminals operated on the battlefield in Ukraine, John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy at…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 9, 2024

⚡️Bloomberg: Pentagon blocks Russian military from accessing Starlink in Ukraine.

The U.S. Pentagon is preventing the Russian military from using Starlink internet terminals operated on the battlefield in Ukraine, John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense, said in an interview with Bloomberg on May 9.

https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-pentagon-blocks-russian-military-from-accessing-starlink-in-ukraine/

Frankly I’m amazed by this. Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

The U.S. Pentagon is preventing the Russian military from using Starlink internet terminals operated on the battlefield in Ukraine, John Plumb, Assistant Secretary of Defense for Space Policy at the U.S. Department of Defense, said in an interview with Bloomberg on May 9.

Starlink, recognized for its superior security compared to cellular or radio signals, is deemed crucial for Ukrainian operations. Last year, the Pentagon reached an agreement with SpaceX to financially support access for the Ukrainian military.

Earlier this year,  Ukraine’s military intelligence chief told the Wall Street Journal that Russian forces in Ukraine are using thousands of Starlink satellite communications terminals made by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

According to Plumb, the U.S. has become “heavily involved in working with the government of Ukraine and SpaceX to counter Russian illicit use of Starlink terminals.”

Ukraine heavily depends on Starlink, having reported last year that approximately 42,000 terminals were in operation across the military, hospitals, businesses, and aid organizations.

“At this time we have successfully countered Russian use, but I am certain Russia will continue to try and find ways to exploit Starlink and other commercial communications systems,” Plumb said. “It will continue to be a problem, I think we’ve wrapped our heads around it and found good solutions with both Starlink and Ukraine.”

The American official did not specify what tactics are being used to block Russian access to Starlink terminals inside Ukraine.

Following the publication of Budanov’s interview with the WSJ, two Democrats in the U.S. Congress, Jamie Raskin and Robert Garcia, opened an investigation into Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, demanding information on Russia’s alleged usage of the Starlink satellite internet terminals.

Ukraine’s military intelligence said that Russia has allegedly been purchasing Starlink terminals from “Arab countries,” citing intercepted communications.

Elon Musk denied that SpaceX had sold Starlink units to Russia and said Starlink would not connect to any devices there.

Both military intelligence and media reports said that Russian forces connected Starlink in occupied Ukraine, not on Russian territory.

Plumb affirmed that SpaceX has become a “reliable partner” in Ukraine.

“To me, they’re a very reliable partner, and they are also ‘innovating at speed,’ providing services that are useful to the Defense Department.”

SpaceX began providing the Starlink terminals to Ukraine shortly after the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Georgia:

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1788670321014300799

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1788676637585715447

The Georgian police, for which the West invested an enormous amount of money to enhance its capacity, has transformed into a Russian-style OMON over the past few weeks, serving regime to undermine what is left of Georgian democracy. pic.twitter.com/QwsPsL3Cgp

— Eto Buziashvili (@EtoBuziashvili) May 9, 2024

https://twitter.com/soldier_fella/status/1788632799559262217

https://twitter.com/revishvilig/status/1788690055420149787

This is going to get worse before it gets better.

The potential/expected Russian spring offensive:

Russian forces plan a mid-May offensive on Kharkiv Oblast, Kraken commander Kostiantyn Nemichev told The Economist. Options include cutting off Kharkiv's main road to Kyiv or moving 10km closer to place the city’s eastern outskirts within artillery range.https://t.co/4a0gbODY0E

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 9, 2024

Here are the details from The Economist: (emphasis mine)

“This used to be an old Soviet radio station, but we have gutted it and installed this equipment given to us by volunteers. We did it all ourselves,” Lieutenant Colonel Alexander Timchenko, commander of the air-defence unit, says proudly. Plots on the monitor show the flight paths of Russian jets, helicopters and missiles. Lines showing Smerch rockets travelling at 1,400kph (900mph) criss-cross the screen; one heads directly towards the hamlet, but passes overhead. A Russian warplane comes close to the front, releases its bomb and makes a u-turn. Less than a minute later the glide bomb (a regular bomb fitted with fins to greatly increase its range) disappears from the screen, exploding well inside Ukraine.

Colonel Timchenko’s air-defence unit cannot hit the Russian planes and has no way of intercepting glide bombs. Its job is to warn artillery units and mobile groups operating along the front. Hidden in the brush on a hill a few kilometres from the hamlet, three of the battalion’s 250 men huddle around a Strela-10, an old Soviet short-range mobile surface-to-air missile system. Designed to bring down nato planes, it now hunts Russian drones. In the eight months that Colonel Timchenko has been here his men have shot down 50.

Tall and composed, the commander is a Russian-speaker from Kharkiv. He has been fighting since February 2015, a year after Vladimir Putin first invaded Crimea and the eastern Donbas, supposedly to “save” Russian-speakers like him. The war, he says, is not about language, ethnicity or even territory, but a way of life. “I don’t want to be part of Russia. I don’t want to go to prison for expressing my opinions. I want my children to grow up in a normal country, maybe not a rich country, but a free country.” An avid reader of Alexander Solzhenitsyn, he does not want to live in a new “Gulag Archipelago”.

The purpose of the fighting around Chasiv Yar is not to retain every inch of land, but to prevent the Russian army from sweeping across the rest of Ukraine and taking its main cities, including Kharkiv, Dnipro, Odessa and Kyiv. Similarly, Mr Putin is not interested in the Donbas for its territory; he is trying to subjugate Ukraine and end its quest to become part of the European order. Last week Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, told The Economist that this order could perish “much more quickly than we think”. Ukraine is where the fight is taking place.

A year ago, as Ukraine readied for its counter-offensive, just holding its own positions was considered the most pessimistic scenario. Now, as Russia prepares for a fresh push, it is considered the best case. From soldiers to generals, everyone The Economist spoke to over the past week knows that Ukraine lacks the resources to get back to its 1991 borders, as its politicians have promised. “I suggest to anyone who talks of 1991 borders to come as far as Bakhmut,” Colonel Timchenko says, referring to a town Ukraine lost a year ago after months of savage fighting.

At stake now is not Ukraine’s territorial integrity, but its survival. Slowing Russian forces in the Donbas is crucial. Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko, commander of the 92nd, who helped liberate Kharkiv province in September 2022, is now fighting some 350km south-east of the city. “Everyone knows that if we don’t fight for Kostiantynivka and Druzhkivka [Russia’s probable next target], Russian forces will be in Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kryvyi Rih a few weeks later,” he says. He thinks there is a “70% chance” that Russia can occupy the rest of the Donbas region. The question is how long it might take, and how much damage Ukraine can inflict in the process.

Fearing escalation, the West has never given Ukraine all the weapons it needs. After a six-month gap in American supplies caused by Republican obstruction, it has enough ammunition to survive but not to defeat Russia’s forces. By the time a new American aid package was approved on April 24th, it was rationing ammunition. Colonel Fedosenko says he was down to five shells a day for his American Paladin howitzers. “What am I supposed to do with this number of shells? My men were fighting with spades in trenches.” He hopes the $61bn package’s effects will be felt in days, as many of the weapons have been pre-positioned in Poland.

Although Russia has the edge in shells and manpower, Colonel Fedosenko feels it may have reached its peak. Only a few weeks ago, he says, Russian infantry backed by ten to 20 armoured vehicles and tanks were launching assaults every two to three hours. Now they attack only every five days or so, using motorcycles and quad bikes to avoid kicking up dust and advancing in small groups to hunt for weak spots.

Some 70% of the Russian soldiers in such assaults are former convicts, says Colonel Fedosenko. He also sees Tajik, Uzbek, Turkmen, Cuban and Somali mercenaries. Many soldiers have never been in combat before. “Our interceptions suggest they are scraping the barrel, using whoever they can force into battle—cooks, builders, mechanics, anyone.” He knows that many Russian soldiers have no choice. “Most of the prisoners I take are guys from small towns and villages. They tell us that either they get killed here or they get killed there if they run.” Some shoot themselves rather than surrender.

For now, however, Russian forces continue to advance. While Ukraine is not collapsing, it is losing about 20 sq km a week. Mr Putin may want to inflict maximum damage before nato’s 75th anniversary party in July, to humiliate the West and force Ukraine into negotiations. But since he has not advertised his fresh offensive he would not need to admit its failure either.

Meanwhile, Mr Putin is strangling Ukraine’s economy by knocking out much of its electricity generation and wearing down the civilian population by bombing cities. Kharkiv, which is already rationing electricity, is being hit by glide bombs almost daily. Yet the city of more than 1m people is keeping calm and carrying on. On a sunny afternoon last week, residents strolled through a park and attendants went on emptying rubbish bins, even as two glide bombs landed with huge explosions less than a kilometre away. Keeping the city functioning and clean is a way to stand up to destruction and chaos.

With around 50,000 fresh Russian troops gathering across the border some 40km away, Kharkiv’s commanders know they may be a target in Russia’s next push. One scenario would be to isolate the city by cutting the main road to Kyiv. Another would be to move some 10km closer, putting the city’s eastern outskirts within artillery range and creating a buffer zone to protect Belgorod, a Russian city that is being hit by Ukrainian drones.

Konstantin Nemichev is the commander of the famous Kraken regiment, a special-forces outfit formed in the early days of the invasion in 2022 that defended Kharkiv. He expects the enemy to attack the province again in mid-May, but reckons they will fail to get near the city. Interviewed outside a ruined school building in the east of town, the site of an intense firefight in 2022 in which invading soldiers were wiped out, the commander says the defence is much stronger now. It has three lines of fortifications and a full brigade to stop the Russians. “They can move a few kilometres into the province,” he says, “but I don’t think they can get as far as 10km.”

The Ukrainian armed forces know they have no choice but to fight on. “We can either fight for Ukraine against Russia, or we will be overrun and forced to fight for Russia against Europe,” says Oleg Tkach, a lieutenant colonel in the 3rd tank brigade, which defends the Kharkiv region. But this sense of urgency and existential threat, he says, needs to penetrate into the whole of Ukrainian society. “People need to know the truth,” he says. And Ukraine needs unity as it enters a new stage of conflict.

I want to reemphasize LTC Tkach’s assessment:

“We can either fight for Ukraine against Russia, or we will be overrun and forced to fight for Russia against Europe,” says Oleg Tkach, a lieutenant colonel in the 3rd tank brigade, which defends the Kharkiv region.

Those, as well as Ukraine’s existence as a sovereign state and Ukrainians existence as Ukrainians, are the stakes!

Professor Snyder has posted a new explainer of Russian propaganda. From the Thread Reader App:

Illustration of Russian propaganda for today. We are meant to be intimidated or exhilarated by the fantasy of bombing the Pentagon. 1/10

The message is that Russia always won, but the list of ostensible Russian victories on the poster tells a different story. 2/10 

It’s interesting that Russia here admits, as its Western friends sometimes deny, that Russia invaded Ukraine ten years ago. 3/10 

But that invasion has been no victory. The previous item, 1941–1945, was a Soviet victory with US economic support as part of a coalition. 4/10 

1812 was a victory of the Russian Empire over France as part of a coalition. 1609-1618 was the Time of Troubles (approximately) and the victory was keeping a Pole from the throne. 5/10 

1239-1480 was the period when the new city of Moscow was a vassal of the Mongols/Tatars, the time of its political formation. 6/10 

1242 marks the destruction of the medieval Kyivan state by Mongols. Russia did not exist then and no victory was won. 7/10 

The poster ignores completely famous Russian and Soviet defeats, such as the Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, the First World War, the Polish-Soviet War, and the Afghan invasion. 8/10

Opinion: Russia can lose this war | CNNhttps://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2024/05/08/opinions/victory-day-russia-war-ukraine-snyder

Russia has of course won many wars, but generally against peoples now subjugated and incorporated into the Russian Federation. 9/10 

Lessons for Victory Day: Russia distorts the past; Russia often loses wars; when Russia wins it is often thanks to international support; the current war started in 2014 and aims to destroy a people and add territory. 10/10 

Kyiv:

Zelensky sacked head of the Office of State Protection, Ukraine’s equivalent of the secret service, days after two of its colonels were accused of involvement in a plot to assassinate the Ukrainian president. Zelensky issued a decree dismissing Serhiy Rud. https://t.co/wxXR2TSi7K pic.twitter.com/1VSUa5c0cC

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 9, 2024

⚡️Zelensky dismisses head of State Security Administration.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the head of Ukraine's State Security Administration (UDO), Serhii Rud, according to a presidential decree published on May 9.https://t.co/MBaF3Hd9S0

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 9, 2024

President Zelenskyy continues to shake up his senior national security team. From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the head of Ukraine’s State Security Administration (UDO), Serhii Rud, according to a presidential decree published on May 9.

The UDO’s main tasks include ensuring the security of the President of Ukraine and high-ranking officials of the state, as well as the protection of administrative buildings and objects of state authorities of Ukraine.

Rud’s dismissal comes shortly after the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) claimed to have uncovered a network of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) agents who were plotting to assassinate President Zelensky and other high-ranking officials in Ukraine. Two colonels of the UDO accused of leaking classified information to Russia were reportedly detained.

The FSB network aimed to find perpetrators among the military close to Zelensky’s security, “who could take the head of state hostage and then kill him.”

Just a few weeks before, SBU officials and Polish law enforcement worked to detain a Polish citizen who allegedly offered to Russia to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelensky.

In late November, Zelensky said in an interview with The Sun that he had survived at least five assassination attempts since the start of Russia’s full-scale war.

The Ukrainian president issued several presidential decrees this week mandating changes in senior leadership across Ukraine’s government and military.

Dmytro Hereha was reappointed as the commander of Ukraine’s Support Forces, and Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the former commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, was formally dismissed from military service. Zaluzhnyi will now serve as Ukraine’s ambassador to the U.K.

Odesa:

Overnight, our border guards shot down five Shaheds over the Odesa region.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/WHAJNhvHPA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 9, 2024

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1788643347969536429

The Zaporizhzhia front:

Destroyed Russian T-55. Zaporizhzhia front. https://t.co/X9rdGXZnDx pic.twitter.com/XIJ31ohtOe

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

Mariuopol:

Strike reported in Mariupol pic.twitter.com/u0IoH9OOsd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

Russian sources are claiming the Mariupol strike was ATACMS:

Russian sources mention an ATACMS strike against targets in occupied Mariupol.

Imagine writing this with a serious face:

"ATACMS was used in Mariupol.
hohols will not let go of the peaceful Russian city." pic.twitter.com/oVGqjNHmfz

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) May 9, 2024

Moscow:

"Russians are constantly being told their country was, is and always will be unbeatable. Yet Russia is paying a heavy price for its war in Ukraine." Our report from Moscow as Russia marks Victory Day. Producer @LizaShuvalova Camera @AntonChicherov @BBCNews pic.twitter.com/Z8YoKIMZNV

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) May 9, 2024

Bashkhortostan, Russia:

A video of the drone attacking the plant in Russian Salavat, Bashkiria, appeared on Russian Telegram channels.

The person who is filming says the drone is very large.

It looks like the drone flew about 1,500 km before it reached its target and hit the oiloil catalytic cracking… https://t.co/sZDjo20oH0 pic.twitter.com/3CFKR2rBqn

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 9, 2024

A video of the drone attacking the plant in Russian Salavat, Bashkiria, appeared on Russian Telegram channels.

The person who is filming says the drone is very large.

It looks like the drone flew about 1,500 km before it reached its target and hit the oiloil catalytic cracking unit.

Gazprom neftekhim Salavat is one of the largest oil refining and petrochemical production complexes in Russia. It specializes in the production of gasoline, diesel fuel, and other types of petroleum products.

 

The refinery in Salavat (Salavatnefteorgsintez), Bashkortostan, currently part of Russia, which got successfully hit by Ukrainian UAVs today, is more than 1,300 km (810 Miles) from the front line. pic.twitter.com/Z4pe7FSmRL

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) May 9, 2024

/2. Location of the oil refinery.
(53.4092820, 55.8868303) pic.twitter.com/5NRJjelNrw

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

/4. The distance of 1300km from the frontline makes an attack on Salavat oil refinery the farthest Ukrainian drone attack on Russian targets. The previous record holder was an attack on Nizhnekamsk oil refinery and Shahed factory, 1100-1150km https://t.co/eCmTvh8pa8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

/6. According to Russian media Baza:

“the drone hit the catalytic cracking unit at about one o'clock in the afternoon, local time. Afterwards, employees of the enterprise heard a bang and saw smoke in the area of ​​the Southern entrance. The fire was small, so workers were not…

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

/6. According to Russian media Baza:

“the drone hit the catalytic cracking unit at about one o’clock in the afternoon, local time. Afterwards, employees of the enterprise heard a bang and saw smoke in the area of ​​the Southern entrance. The fire was small, so workers were not evacuated; the plant is operating normally.

According to the head of the Republic of Bashkortostan, Radiy Khabirov, emergency services and heads of law enforcement agencies are now working on the spot. Preliminary, no one was hurt.”

 

Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, Russia:

Russian Telegram channels report that a seaport caught fire in Russian Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky last night.

The causes of the fire are not named. The fire covered an area of 2,000 meters, according to Russian emergency services. pic.twitter.com/vcrvnqyffy

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 9, 2024

That’s enough for tonight!

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets today. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Best friends

📷: 117th Mechanized Brigade pic.twitter.com/iIieg4HdLQ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 9, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok!

@patron__dsns

:( #песпатрон

♬ original sound – Raihann

Open thread!

Our Positions at the Front, the Physical Protection of Our People and Communities, and the Disruption of Any Attempts at Russian Offensive Are Urgent Priorities – Address by the President

8 May 2024 – 21:47

Dear Ukrainians!

A few important points for today.

First of all, I am grateful to all those who have been eliminating the consequences of the Russian Nazis’ attack in various regions of Ukraine today – Vinnytsia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Zaporizhzhia, Poltava, Kirovohrad. This is how the Kremlin marks the end of World War II in Europe – with a massive attack, with its attempts to break the lives of our people, with its Nazism. Almost sixty Russian missiles and more than twenty “Shaheds” were launched in just one day. It was a deliberate, combined strike against our energy system – against power generation, hydroelectric dam, gas infrastructure. We managed to shoot down some of the missiles and most of the “Shaheds.” I thank each of our partners whose air defense systems were effective today. However, not all Russian missiles were shot down. Unfortunately. There were hits, and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, power engineers, involved services and enterprises are facing many challenges. I am grateful to everyone who is working one hundred percent to increase the percentage of energy generation.

I would also like to personally thank the rescuers who have proved themselves effective and committed to eliminating the consequences of the Russian strikes today and in general at this time. Zaporizhzhia region – Oleksandr Antipov, Serhiy Sydorenko, Mykola Sereda – employees of state fire and rescue units. Thank you! Lviv region – Ihor Veretelnyk, Oleksandr Voitovych, Viktor Kapustiak. Thank you! Poltava region – Oleksandr Kit, Oleksandr Baiva, Yevhen Kibalnyk. Thank you! Vinnytsia region – Oleh Kostiuk, Dmytro Palamarchuk and Volodymyr Khudchenko. Ivano-Frankivsk region – Artur Vasiutiak, Oleh Shastkiv and Ruslan Kryklyvyi. I am grateful to you guys and all your colleagues – the entire staff of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, all the people whose job is to always give life hope, always help, under any circumstances.

Today, I continued negotiations with the leaders who can help us – Ukraine – and our entire Europe to bring a just peace and real, lasting security closer. We continue preparations for the first Global Peace Summit, which will be held in Switzerland and should become a truly effective peace-building platform. Today I personally invited the leaders of Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the Secretary General of the Council of Europe to the Summit. It is very important that we maintain dialogue with all leaders, and we actually share a common goal with all of them – to restore genuine tranquility to international relations and guarantee justice to every nation – guarantee that they will not be destroyed. Only in cooperation can the world ensure this. And I thank every leader, every state that has already confirmed their participation in the Peace Summit. We are working to make sure that everyone else understands us and joins in as well. Everyone who helps will feel the gratitude of history.

Of course, we also discussed our bilateral cooperation today. Denmark – we discussed the strengthening of our air defense and the implementation of defense agreements. The Netherlands – we discussed with Mark, Mr. Prime Minister, the search for additional Patriot systems. Hungary – a good conversation, long, with many details. Bilateral cooperation, the situation in the region. We agreed to work together further, based on the efforts of our teams. Germany – we discussed the restoration and protection of our energy sector, the preparation of a recovery conference in Berlin. Saudi Arabia – we discussed with the Crown Prince our bilateral cooperation and global affairs – ways to actually bring peace closer.

And one more thing.

Today, there was a separate report by the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and a report by the Commander-in-Chief. Our positions at the front, the physical protection of our people and communities, and the disruption of any attempts at Russian offensive are urgent priorities. I am grateful to each of our warriors whose courage and resilience make all this possible. To everyone in the Ukrainian Defense Forces – in our combat brigades, in all units involved, in the Air Defense Forces, in the Air Force, in the security forces. Everyone who is now on the frontline, who defends Ukraine on the ground, in the sky and at sea, gives our state the opportunity to gain a prospect for Ukrainians – for our independence, for our diplomacy, for our lives. Glory to all our warriors! Glory to our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

Today is Victory in (WW II in) Europe day.

May 8
Unity overcomes evil. pic.twitter.com/wF3LBq2LKi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2024

On May 8, we mark the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in the Second World War.

Today, we honor the millions of Ukrainians who bravely fought and sacrificed their lives to defeat this evil.
Today, a new evil has emerged, threatening Europe's peace and stability.

The… pic.twitter.com/uOV9jb7Ks7

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 8, 2024

On May 8, we mark the Day of Remembrance and Victory over Nazism in the Second World War.

Today, we honor the millions of Ukrainians who bravely fought and sacrificed their lives to defeat this evil.
Today, a new evil has emerged, threatening Europe’s peace and stability.

The new coalition of nations must now demonstrate its solidarity and resolve to make sure the new Nazism suffers defeat.

Tomorrow, 9 May, Russia will celebrate Victory Day as part of their fetishization of Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s accomplishments in WW II. I expect that the assault on Ukrainian civilians and civilian targets over the next 12 to 24 hours.

Yep, it’s always “Never Again” and all every year on May 8, poppies and speeches — up until the thing that should have never happened again actually happens — then it’s suddenly “Escalation Management”, “Don’t Provoke Putin”, “I Don’t Support Russia But…”, “They Have Nukes, You…

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Yep, it’s always “Never Again” and all every year on May 8, poppies and speeches — up until the thing that should have never happened again actually happens — then it’s suddenly “Escalation Management”, “Don’t Provoke Putin”, “I Don’t Support Russia But…”, “They Have Nukes, You Know”, “Surrender For Peace Now”, “Pay For Your Own War”, “It’s All Your Fault”, “You Can’t Target Russian Territory” etc etc etc.

Go figure.

The cost:

pic.twitter.com/as13RUF2Ux

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Remember this picture of a woodland battlefield in east Ukraine that went viral last month?

The author, Denys Zeleny, a non-commissioned officer with Ukraine’s National Guards, has been killed in action….

In civilian life, he used to work as a manager at a confectionary chain called Honey.

 

In this photograph that I took in early April 2024 is Serhii, an infantryman at the moment he was waiting to go to the frontline

Shortly afterwards, the photo was published on the front page of Liberation, but Serhii would never see it. He was killed in action later that month. pic.twitter.com/BYl7INq9AT

— Roman Pilipey (@RomanPilipey) May 8, 2024

This is a future we should make every effort to prevent:

What if Ukraine is forced to surrender to Russia? What happens next? What kind of global security environment would there be?

This video was made by Mykhailo Dankanych, a former TV producer who is currently serving in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. pic.twitter.com/SvIZ0aAEoc

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

Britain:

Russian channels taking credit for the UK database hack that currently has frozen the country's airports. pic.twitter.com/w5ARLNvRQ1

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 7, 2024

Taps the sign: It’s a world war!

The UK government says it will expel Russia's defense attaché for being an undeclared military spy, strip diplomatic status from properties in the UK that it believes are used by Russia to gather intelligence & cap the length of Russian diplomatic visas. https://t.co/EDVXIIgHFD pic.twitter.com/mgHMy0oY8r

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 8, 2024

Brussels:

Brussels agrees to send €3bn from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine https://t.co/8W23xbzCBu

— Massoud Maalouf (@Massoudmaalouf) May 8, 2024

From Euronews:

EU diplomats agreed Wednesday to use income from frozen Russian state assets to aid Ukraine – paving the way for the war-torn country to get around €3 bn for arms purchases and reconstruction before the summer.

Since the full-scale invasion of 2022, €210 billion in assets of the Moscow central bank have sat frozen within the bloc – chiefly at the Euroclear depositary in Belgium.

The deal was agreed “in principle” at a regular meeting of national representatives, according to a tweet by Belgium, currently chairing talks in the European Council.

Brussels has long touted using the interest from those funds, estimated at around €3bn per year, for Ukraine’s reconstruction costs – and later extended its plans to cover Kyiv’s military expenditure.

The plan – which also has backing from the group of seven leading industrialised democracies – comes as Ukraine hopes to turn the tide in an increasingly desperate military campaign, bolstered by €89bn recently agreed by the US Congress.

But Ukrainian ministers have said Brussels needs to go further than merely scooping up interest payments – and fully confiscate Moscow’s assets to ensure the aggressor pays for the cost of war.

Officials from EU countries and the European Central Bank have expressed concerns that seizing assets outright might set an unhelpful precedent or harm the euro’s reputation as a safe currency.

I welcome today's political agreement on our proposal to use the proceeds from immobilised Russian assets for Ukraine.

There could be no stronger symbol and no greater use for that money than to make Ukraine and all of Europe a safer place to live. https://t.co/zGQMVAKAMt

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) May 8, 2024

Talks were also held up by concerns over how many of the assets would be retained by Euroclear as an administration fee, a figure that was originally as high as 13%, as well as Belgium’s right to tax the profits gained by the Brussels-based securities depository.

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has already promised to send some €1.5bn directly to Ukraine, though that appears to be a result of applying existing corporate tax law to the unexpected windfall Euroclear gains by having frozen central bank assets on its books.

The final deal allows Euroclear to keep a provisional buffer worth 10% of the profits, in case of litigation over the funds. It can also keep 0.3% as an incentive, while 90% of the funds will be sent via the European Peace Facility to help Ukraine buy weapons.

Commission President Ursula von der Leyen previously suggested Ukraine could receive the first funds under the mechanism by July – but the calculation will be backdated to February, when Euroclear formally segregated the assets.

Ambassadors today also formally agreed on the reforms Ukraine will have to make to receive funds from a separate €50bn facility of EU grants and loans.

 

 

This is very interesting – and very important to make clear.

"Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries are now doing what the sanctions regime has not."https://t.co/C1386qyzNE

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 8, 2024

From Foreign Affairs:

On January 19, a Ukrainian drone struck an oil depot in the town of Klintsy, in Russia’s western Bryansk region, setting four gasoline tanks on fire and igniting some 1.6 million gallons of oil. Later that week, another strike lit a fire at Rosneft’s oil refinery in Tuapse, a Russian city some 600 miles from Ukrainian-held territory. In March, Ukrainian drones hit four Russian refineries in two days. April began with a Ukrainian drone attack on Russia’s third-largest refinery, located deep in the region of Tatarstan, around 800 miles away. The month ended with strikes on facilities in two more Russian cities, Smolensk and Ryazan.

In all, Ukraine has launched at least 20 strikes on Russian refineries since October. Ukrainian security officials have indicated that the attacks’ objectives are to cut off fuel supplies to the Russian military and slash the export revenues that the Kremlin uses to fund its war effort. By the end of March, Ukraine had destroyed around 14 percent of Russia’s oil-refining capacity and forced the Russian government to introduce a six-month ban on gasoline exports. One of the world’s largest oil producers is now importing petrol.

But the Biden administration has criticized the attacks. In February, Vice President Kamala Harris urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to refrain from targeting Russian oil refineries out of concern that the strikes would drive up global oil prices. Echoing that sentiment, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned the Senate Armed Services Committee in mid-April that the “attacks could have a knock-on effect in terms of the global energy situation.” Instead of striking oil infrastructure, Austin told the committee, “Ukraine is better served in going after tactical and operational targets that can directly influence the current fight.”

Washington’s criticism is misplaced: attacks on oil refineries will not have the effect on global energy markets that U.S. officials fear. These s​trikes reduce Russia’s ability to turn its oil into usable products; they do not affect the volume of oil it can extract or export. In fact, with less domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more of its crude oil, not less, pushing global prices down rather than up. Indeed, Russian firms have already started selling more unrefined oil overseas. As long as they remain restricted to Russian refineries, the attacks are unlikely to raise the price of oil for Western consumers.

Yet they can still inflict pain inside Russia, where the price of refined oil products, such as gasoline and diesel, has begun to surge. The strikes are achieving the very objectives that Ukraine’s Western partners set but largely failed to meet through sanctions and a price cap on Russian oil: to degrade Russia’s financial and logistical ability to wage war while limiting broader damage to the global economy. Kyiv must take wins where it can, and a campaign to destroy Russia’s oil-refining capacity brings benefits to Ukraine with limited risk.

Ukraine has so far concentrated its attacks on Russian oil refineries, not oil fields or crude oil export infrastructure. The distinction is important. After oil is extracted from a well, it is transported through pipelines and other infrastructure to refineries, where it is converted into products to be distributed to end users. In 2023, Russia extracted an estimated 10.1 million barrels of oil per day. Of this, around 50 percent was exported to refineries abroad, and the remaining 50 percent was refined domestically, creating products such as gasoline, diesel, aviation fuel, and chemical feedstocks. Half these refined products were consumed domestically, with a substantial proportion diverted to fuel the Russian war machine. Russia also sells refined oil products abroad—the country was responsible for around ten percent of the world’s seaborne exports in 2023—but most Western countries have already stopped importing refined Russian fuel. The top destinations for Russia’s refined oil products are Turkey, China, and Brazil, though Russia has also been selling fuel to North Korea, in violation of UN sanctions, in exchange for munitions.

The Ukrainian strikes have dealt a significant blow to Russia’s refining capacity, knocking out up to 900,000 barrels per day. Repairs will be slow and expensive, in part because refinery stacks—where oil is distilled into its constituent parts—are huge and complex pieces of equipment that take years to design and build, and in part because Western sanctions are hampering Russian firms’ access to specialized components.

Russia’s oil storage capacity is limited. When a refinery is destroyed or damaged, therefore, extracted crude oil cannot simply be stocked for later use. This leaves Russian producers with just two options: increasing exports of crude oil or shutting wells and reducing production.

Data from recent months confirm that, as expected, Russia is exporting more crude oil at the same time that its refined fuel exports have hit near-historic lows. Moscow exported just over 712,000 tons of diesel and other petroleum products in the last week of April, a drop from more than 844,000 tons in the same week in 2023. Monthly exports of crude oil, however, increased by nine percent from February to March, reaching their highest level in nine months and their third highest since Western sanctions on Russian crude oil took effect in December 2022. The strikes have had no discernible effect on international crude oil prices, which remained stable until the end of March, when Russia cut its output under a preexisting agreement with OPEC.

Western markets may not be hurting, but Russia is feeling the pinch. Since the Ukrainian strikes began, diesel production has fallen by 16 percent and gasoline production by nine percent. The average weekly wholesale price of gasoline and diesel in western Russia rose by 23 percent and 47 percent, respectively, between the end of 2023 and mid-March. In April, the cost of gasoline hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year. Russia imported 3,000 tons of fuel from Belarus in the first half of March—up from zero in January—and the Kremlin has been forced to ask Kazakhstan to ready 100,000 tons of gasoline for supply in case of shortages.

Ukraine’s campaign is working. It is inflicting pain on Russian energy markets, and it is putting exactly the kind of pressure on Moscow that the U.S.-led sanctions regime was designed for but has had limited success in delivering.

In the early months of the war, the Biden administration assembled a coalition of countries to impose economic penalties on Russia, including a price cap on Russian crude oil exports. The idea behind the price cap was to set it high enough that Russia would keep oil flowing, helping avoid a global recession, but low enough to depress Russia’s export earnings. In practice, inconsistent enforcement and monitoring have undermined the price cap’s effectiveness: Russia’s federal revenues hit a record $320 billion in 2023. The price cap may also have been set too high. A recent assessment by the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, a Finnish think tank, determined that a lower rate could have slashed Russia’s oil export revenues by 25 percent between December 2022 and March 2024 without pushing Russian companies to shut off the taps. The EU and G-7 shipping industry, meanwhile, is still deeply entwined with Russia’s exports. In March this year, 46 percent of Russian oil shipments were carried on ships owned or insured in G-7 and EU countries, and some Western tankers have continued to transport oil priced above the cap.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries are now doing what the sanctions regime has not. Without compromising global energy supply or driving up prices, the attacks are eating into Russian revenues and curtailing Russia’s ability to turn crude oil into the kinds of fuel that tanks and planes need to run. As long as Ukrainian forces avoid hitting crude oil pipelines or major crude oil export terminals, they can maintain this balance.

The current strategy comes with limited risks. Ukrainian drones have generally been hitting their targets at night, causing few, if any, civilian casualties. As long as Ukraine continues to weigh potential harms to noncombatants every time it approves a strike, it should stay on the right side of international law. Targeting an industry that directly contributes to Russian military power is a reasonable wartime measure—one that past belligerents, such as the United States, have employed before, including in its recent operations against the Islamic State.

Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries also seem unlikely to widen the conflict. At the very least, Russia will struggle to escalate in kind, given its long-running and far broader campaign to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure: its forces destroyed Ukraine’s Kremenchuk oil refinery within weeks of the 2022 invasion, and the Ukrainian energy minister has said that Russian strikes earlier this year hit up to 80 percent of Ukraine’s conventional thermal power plants. Rather than threatening escalation in response to Ukraine’s strikes, the Kremlin has tended to play down their effects to avoid embarrassment.

To keep the risks low, the United States should neither help Ukraine proceed with these attacks nor even publicly encourage them. But nor should it try to dissuade Kyiv from this course of action. Despite the U.S. Congress’s recent approval of $61 billion in military aid, Ukraine is at its most fragile point in more than two years. Strikes on Russian refineries alone will not force Moscow to capitulate, but they do make the war more difficult and expensive for Russia—and so, if nothing else, when the time comes for negotiations, they may push the Kremlin to make concessions.

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Destroyed Russian BUK air defence system equipment, presumably 9A39 of BUK-M1. As said:

“Due to a mistake made by the crew, the vehicle started to catch fire. Which led to the explosion of the loaded missiles. The crew was not injured. The exact date is unknown. Near Pology,… pic.twitter.com/BL1z9YXdod

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

Destroyed Russian BUK air defence system equipment, presumably 9A39 of BUK-M1. As said:

“Due to a mistake made by the crew, the vehicle started to catch fire. Which led to the explosion of the loaded missiles. The crew was not injured. The exact date is unknown. Near Pology, Zaporizhzhia region.”

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/52

In addition to the topic of Russian assaults on motorcycles. Detailed video of how the attack of two Russian motorcyclists took place. Zaporizhzhia Front. https://t.co/9uLQQYv0Fo https://t.co/nj7feEIPra pic.twitter.com/uhzpaJ2ICT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

The Avdiivka front:

The battle between Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade of Ukraine and Russian T-80 tank. T-80 was disabled by a TOW anti-tank missile fired by the Bradley crew. Avdiivka front. https://t.co/fmZ5xNZKry pic.twitter.com/sXK6bI9a7V

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 8, 2024

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

/1. Drone attack on Russian oil depot in the Krasnodar region is reported. Presumably in Yurovka village. There are multiple oil depots in the area, which of them was targeted is unclear. 300 from the frontline. pic.twitter.com/vfbR72wfFM

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 9, 2024

Just a brief update on what is going on in Georgia. From the Thread Reader App:

Things have been developing quickly over the past 2-3 weeks in Georgia, but in the last couple of days, they have progressed at an unimaginable speed. The ruling Georgian Dream party has employed various tactics targeting civil society, escalating to an extreme level. 1/6 

Exclusive know-how: 100s, if not 1000s, of people—activists, NGO reprs, media, and their families—are receiving calls from foreign cell numbers, with insults and threats. This is very likely a coordinated and centralized effort to sow fear and intimidate civil society. 2/6 

An increasing number of physical attacks on representatives of NGOs, media, and teachers, either in the streets or at their homes, have been reported. They are being attacked by so-called Titushky. 3/6

The ruling Georgian Dream party is not even waiting for the passage of the Russian-style foreign agents law, it’s already operational. Today, they announced the creation of a database (a kind of enemy/blacklist) where they will place all individuals undesirable to them. 4/6 

Following this statement, at least two Telegram channels were launched today that began leaking personal information, including the addresses and phone numbers of representatives of NGOs, media, activists, etc. 5/6 

There’s already massive terrorising happening in Georgia and the Russian copy-pasta Agents Law is not even passed yet. 6/6

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new tweets from Patron today, so here is some adjacent material.

New life on frontline pic.twitter.com/bHqURZKnXS

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024

Family pic.twitter.com/9SbzXPuWSa

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 22, 2024

The dog runs after the Ukrainian border guards who are going on a mission.
The dog Elsa is a friend of the 🇺🇦 border guards. pic.twitter.com/ZkBwPUYFn8

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 19, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok:

@patron__dsns

Бажаю кожному знайти людину, поряд з якою вам буде всеодно на будь-який прогноз погоди❤️

♬ оригинальный звук – mushellppp

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I wish everyone to find a person with whom you don’t care about any weather forecast ❤️

Open thread!