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War for Ukraine Day 800: Another Day Ending in Day, Another Russian Bombardment

by Adam L Silverman|  May 2, 20248:39 pm| 30 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

A brief Rosie update: She is continuing to have a good appetite back and is eating and more active. So the week off and what we’re doing in terms of stabilizing her is working.

Here’s the damage to the Novaposhta facility in Odesa:

Ось такий у нас сьогодні ранок в Одесі.

У депо та відділенні разом було 904 відправлення на майже 3 млн грн. Аби компенсувати вартість ваших посилок і вантажів, ми вже з самого ранку вам дзвонимо.

Рашистською ракетою було знищено не тільки наше депо та відділення, а і 15.5 тонн… pic.twitter.com/1E1dF9pd4o

— Нова пошта (@NP_official_ua) May 2, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of Novaposhta’s tweet:

This is how we have this morning in Odessa.

The depot and the branch together had 904 shipments worth almost UAH 3 million. In order to compensate for the cost of your parcels and cargo, we call you from the very morning.

The rashist rocket destroyed not only our depot and branch, but also 15.5 tons of your orders from online stores with clothes, appliances, children’s toys, goodies for 🐾 , medicines, parcels with care for relatives, etc. 😔

And according to the enemy’s version, weapons were stored here. No words, alone 🤬

I guarantee you this wasn’t an accident. Novaposhta had recently been in the news for opening new locations in different EU member states.

  • AIN reminds that Nova Poshta opened 89 offices in Estonia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Germany, Slovakia, Italy, Hungary, and Moldova.

Today’s bombardment:

Russian forces targeted the town of Derhachi, near Kharkiv, with two glided bombs, injuring eight children and a 75-year old man.

One bomb hit close to a sports complex where children were practicing, while another struck near houses, damaging 15 of them. pic.twitter.com/CViuETXr0Q

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 2, 2024

Russian troops killed a 12-year-old girl and her 65-year-old grandmother and injured two other civilians by shelling a village in the Donetsk Oblast with Grad MLRSs, Donetsk Oblast Prosecutor’s Office reported. pic.twitter.com/I0tEQJ1cv7

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 2, 2024

Day after day, russian troops continue to bring death and destruction to Kharkiv Oblast. Today's shelling of a village within the Kupiansk district claimed the life of a 66-year-old man. pic.twitter.com/6mxvITVCJO

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 2, 2024

⚡️Russia attacks 9 communities in Sumy Oblast.

Russian forces attacked Sumy Oblast, firing 40 times and causing at least 215 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported on May 2.https://t.co/6weXsdjbtg

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) May 2, 2024

From The Kyiv Independent:

Russian forces attacked nine border areas and settlements of Sumy Oblast on May 2, firing 40 times and causing at least 215 explosions, the Sumy Oblast Military Administration reported.

The communities of Mykolaivka, Khotin, Miropillia, Bilopillia, Krasnopillia, Velyka Pysarivka, Esman, Seredyna-Buda, and Novo Sloboda were targeted.

No casualties or damage to civilian infrastructure were reported.

The Russian military struck the communities using artillery fire, AGS attacks, FPV drones, and mortar shelling, while also dropping mines.

The town of Miropillia experienced the most attacks, with 54 explosions recorded in the area. Miropillia, located about five kilometers from the Ukraine-Russian border, frequently comes under attack.

Residents in Sumy Oblast have been experiencing daily threats of shelling, but attacks have intensified in recent weeks, prompting large-scale evacuations from the region.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

I’ve Instructed to Work with Partners at All Levels to Speed Up the Supply of Arms, Implementing Packages and Agreements – Address by the President

2 May 2024 – 20:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Here’s a summary for the day.

The Staff. A few main issues. Of course, the situation at the front. There was a report from the Commander-in-Chief. Maximum attention was paid to the Pokrovsk direction. And other directions in the Donetsk region. Southern directions. Kharkiv region. The Commander-in-Chief also made a general report today on the protection of the border with Russia and our respective communities in several regions. The risks are clear. We will destroy the occupier under any circumstances.

The construction of fortifications was discussed separately and in great detail at the Staff meeting. There were reports from the government – Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal, from the Office – within the purview of the regional direction of Oleksiy Kuleba, and from Oleksandr Yakovets, the Head of the State Special Transport Service. I am grateful to each and every person who is building fortifications on the ground and working as efficiently as necessary. We are keeping to the schedule.

Today we also discussed the protection of our energy sector – the protection of specific facilities from specific threats. Now we need to combine two processes: protecting the energy sector from current attacks and providing our people with electricity, and it is also time to start preparing for the next heating season. The task is obvious: we have to do the maximum to protect lives, and every aspect of this job – from air defense and electronic warfare at the facilities to the necessary construction and supplies – is the personal responsibility of everyone involved. From the government and the Air Force to energy companies and local services. I am grateful to everyone who takes their job with true diligence.

Also, following the conversation at the Staff meeting, I instructed the Prime Minister, the Minister of Defense, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, the Commander-in-Chief, each at their level, to work with partners to speed up the supply of weapons, implementing packages and agreements. Speed is important. The content of the packages is there, I see no problems with it today. I am grateful to the U.S. Congress for the decision, but the speed of delivery and implementation of decisions is something that should not be a problem either. We are waiting for the weapons to arrive in Ukraine for our warriors.

Today we also continue our preparations. We have held meetings on the results we expect from the coming months and the year as a whole.

NATO: prospects for the year and specifically, our fair expectations from the Summit in Washington. The European Union: preparations for the actual opening of accession negotiations, which we expect in June, and further work with the EU. And, of course, the Peace Summit, a global summit. There is already a specific distribution of government officials and other representatives of our country who will work in those geographical areas where we still need to engage leaders. These days, together with Switzerland, we have completed sending out invitations for the Summit. The specific dates of the Summit are June 15th and 16th. This will be the first phase – essentially the first real opportunity to begin the restoration of a just peace. All of us should understand that it is only global power that can force Russia into peace, and that is why we are working to involve as many participants as possible in the Summit in Switzerland and the corresponding communication. We must also be aware that Putin will try to disrupt this work, our efforts, and weaken Ukraine’s positions through various manipulations and attacks by his terrorists. All our positions – on the battlefield, in diplomacy and the information sphere – must be equally solid. For us to be able to exert pressure and achieve our goals, the occupiers must lose their ability to put pressure and gain anything for themselves. Hence, our strength, our capabilities, our weapons, our unity with partners must all work as one. And they will.

I thank everyone who stands with Ukraine! I thank everyone who fights and works for our country and people! I thank everyone who restores normal life after the Russian strikes and who brings us closer to holding Russia truly accountable for this war – a war in which we will definitely defend our independence.

Glory to Ukraine!

So much for all the assurances that the initial $1 billion worth of material was staged in the EUCOM AOR and would reach Ukraine within a week.

Now that the $61 billion Ukraine aid has passed, Biden aides tell Politico his administration will make the US’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion less of a public focus. 🤨

Mind you, Russian troops are on the offensive, taking territory every day and… https://t.co/WIFX9NtWt9

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) May 2, 2024

Now that the $61 billion Ukraine aid has passed, Biden aides tell Politico his administration will make the US’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion less of a public focus. 🤨

Mind you, Russian troops are on the offensive, taking territory every day and threatening strategic cities in the Donbas — not least because Washington dragged its feet on providing promised assistance.

The cost:

The Maidan square…each and every flag stands for someone who was killed in action to save this country from the Putin plague pic.twitter.com/Tp7BWnYGMR

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 2, 2024

 

Estonia:

Two Estonian boats, "Irpin" and "Reni," joined the Ukrainian Navy.
The patrol boats will perform combat tasks, including protecting civilian navigation.

These boats were handed over by our Estonian friends. We are grateful for your staunch support. 

📷: Ukrainian Navy pic.twitter.com/1GH8zuM5ET

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 2, 2024

The Estonian Foreign Minister:

I did it! Rode my bike from 🇪🇪TLN to Kyiv🇺🇦 to show that the war is ongoing just a bike ride away and to show support to defenders. Let’s keep focus on helping Ukraine win this war and beat terrorist Russia! pic.twitter.com/4kAO91yviP

— Kristo Enn Vaga (@kristovaga) May 2, 2024

Daniel Szeligowski, the head of the Eastern European Programme and the Senior Fellow on Ukraine at the Polish Institute of International Affairs has posted a long thread calling out the Foreign Affairs piece that blamed Ukraine for the failure of the Spring 2022 peace process. From the Thread Reader App:

🧵THE DEAL THAT NEVER WAS

How Russia sought to subjugate Ukraine, the West rightly refused to play the ball, and Putin became personally responsible for the failure of the Ukrainian-Russian talksImage

Recent days have seen a renewed debate over the Ukrainian-Russian peace talks of spring of 2022. The popular wisdom says that both sides were close to an agreement, but this is simply false. Let’s finally unpack it, dyspel the myths and put a stop to the manipulation that abound 
FIRST, there was never any single deal that could have ended the war. What is simplistically presented as a deal was meant to combine at least three components – multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine, bilateral Ukraine-Russia agreement, underpinned by Western guarantees 
The Ukrainian-Russian talks were barely one piece of a larger puzzle, and only the whole package agreed upon could have brought this war to an end. Since the talks already stalled over the first piece of the puzzle, a diplomatic end to the war was never really within reach 
SECOND, there was not even consensus between Ukraine and Russia as to what was really discussed. Ukraine insisted that the talks concerned the future status of Ukraine only, Russia – that a comprehensive agreement is negotiated, including the settlement of bilateral issues 
This is an extremely important detail, which is usually overlooked. All along, Ukraine underlined that bilateral issues are to be excluded from the multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine, and are supposed to be the subject of separate talks between Zelensky and Putin 
And since there was no agreement between Ukraine and Russia on what was really to be discussed between the respective delegations, there was no further agreement on what would be potentially discussed between Zelensky and Putin either 
Zelensky expected his potential meeting with Putin to be serious negotiations on key bilateral points (Russian troops withdrawal, territorial issues). While Putin kept insisting that he would agree for any meeting only for Zelensky to sign “a peace agreement” 
For this reason, there was absolutely no agreement between Ukraine and Russia on either the mechanism for the withdrawal of the Russian troops, the territorial questions, the sequence of implementation of the arrangements, or even in what format these arrangements should be made 
Ukraine consistently maintained that territorial issues were to be agreed upon before a multilateral treaty on Ukraine’s status would enter into force. Russia maintained that the Russian troops would remain on the Ukrainian territory until Ukraine fully implemented the treaty 
THIRD, even in terms of Ukraine’s future status the two sides did not reach understanding on most aspects. Not even details of Ukraine’s neutrality were completely agreed upon, let alone the status and the size of the Ukrainian army 
It is not also true that Russia agreed to Ukraine’s accession to the EU. It expressed its consent in principle, but subject to conditions that Ukraine rejected, pointing out that other neutral countries that are members of the EU did not have to meet them to be considered neutral 
In fact, the only issue on which Ukraine indeed reached a provisional agreement with Russia was that Ukraine would agree to its neutral status, but in exchange for international security guarantees from the Western countries. Which now brings me to the puzzle no.3 
For a multilateral treaty on the status of Ukraine to enter into force whatsoever, Ukraine had to obtain security guarantees from its biggest Western partners. Yet this was impossible from the outset for at least three reasons 
1/ Ukraine negotiated bilaterally with Russia and the Western partners were neither included, nor even in the loop. The big puzzle required therefore a separate talks between Ukraine and these partners that were expected to become security guarantors 
2/ On the Russian initiative, the draft treaty was to impose numerous obligations on the Western guarantors – not entering any military agreements with Ukraine, informing about military exercises and provisions of their military doctrines, cancelling sanctions on Russia 
3/ Russia demanded a far-reaching disarmament of Ukraine and de facto veto right on whether the Western guarantors would even come to Ukraine’s rescue in the case of an attack (“on the basis of the decisions agreed by all Guarantor States”, one of which was to be Russia itself) 
The treaty itself would provide for an immediate suspension of any Western military and military-technical asisstance to Ukraine, although the Russian troops would still remain on the Ukrainian territory, and Russia would have the right to control the Ukrainian inventories 
From the Russian perspective, the treaty was simply intended to incapacitate Ukraine, to which the Western states would never agree. They would become obliged to defend a defenceless and disarmed Ukrainian state, and would even need a Russian consent to do so! 
Moreover, the Treaty assumed that any reservations to its content were not possible. The Western countries were therefore expected to unconditionally accept the Russian terms. Simply speaking, the Russian side put forward a proposal that they knew the West would have to reject 
Suggesting now that Boris Johnson somehow torpedoed the talks is a brazen manipulation to cover up the fact that it was actually Putin who broke off the talks (which were going nowhere anyway). How come? 
As I have already mentioned, Ukraine did not agree with Russia on any of the three pieces of the puzzle, but was still willing to make concessions. The Russian delegation understood fortune was slowly turning in Ukraine’s favour, but Putin apparently did not share this view 

So here comes an interesting part! Putin himself was presented a (still inconclusive) draft treaty on 15 April 2022. Quoting the Russian sources, Reuters argues, however, that Putin rejected the agreement and pressed ahead with military campaign

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/
It became clear that the Russian delegation had no real mandate for talks with the Ukrainians, and that Putin himself was not willing to make any significant concessions, precisely what the Polish side kept saying since the talks started in Feb 2022. Russia was bluffing all along 
What we are seeing today is a coordinated effort to blame Ukraine for the failure of the 2022 talks. This is ignorance at best, at worst – a deliberate action to influence the Western public opinion to undermine support for further assistance to Ukraine [END] 

Tymofiy Mylovanov, the head of the Kyiv School of Economics, has posted a detailed assessment of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian targets in Russia. From the Thread Reader App:

It is ridiculous how Ukraine ignores high-priority targets and attacks low priority targets in Russia, says an observer criticizing Ukrainian attack on Russian oil refinery in Ryazan

Let’s take this argument seriously and think about what Ru targets should Ukraine hit first 1/Image

But first let’s look at what Ukraine is hitting now.

The recent deep strikes have focused on oil refineries. They have not focused on crude oil production, electricity grid, command centers, or weapon storage facilities. 2/Image

There are of course strikes on command centers and weapons storage facilities closer to the front lines. One recent example is an ATACAMS attack on Russian training center in Luhansk region 3/

I have also heard rumors that the U.S. doesn’t allow Ukraine to use ATACAMS and other long range weapons on the territory of Russia, even if this is 40 km from Kharkiv where Russians currently accumulate forces for an offensive 4/ 

So, Ukraine can be limited in its ability to strike on Russian territory.

Nonetheless, Ukraine continuously hits targets deep in Russia with Ukrainian produced drones. 5/

Unroll available on Thread Reader

https://twitter.com/mylovanov/status/1781639121359831135

It is not true that Ukraine focuses only on oil refineries, but they constitute the majority of targets that are publicly known. 6/ 

There is of course a chance that Ukraine attacks defense production and weapons storage targets, but this information doesn’t get public.

Yes, in today’s world with cameras and phones everywhere, this is possibly but highly unlikely. 7/ 

The Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries have been successful and media and politicians noticed them.

Drone attacks have knocked out around 14% of Russia’s primary oil refining capacity as of end-March.

8/

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-seeks-gasoline-kazakhstan-case-shortages-sources-say-2024-04-08/

Russia is usually a net fuel exporter but the refinery disruptions have forced it to import.

It has imposed a 6-month gasoline export ban starting March 1 to prevent acute fuel shortages domestically 9/Image

Russia has also asked Kazakhstan to set up an emergency reserve of 100,000 metric tons of gasoline in case of shortages. 10/Image

It has also increased gasoline imports from Belarus. The cause is “unscheduled repairs” at Russian refineries following drone attacks. In the first half of March, imports reached nearly 3,000 metric tons, up from 590 tons in February and none in January /

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-increases-gasoline-imports-belarus-domestic-supplies-shrink-2024-03-27/

Politico writes it is “both a political and military problem for Moscow. As well as being essential for Russia’s war effort, cheap fuel is a key part of President Vladimir Putin’s offer to the public, an antidote to lagging wages and a weak ruble” 12/

Putin’s fuel problem: How Ukraine is sapping Russia’s diesel and gasolineUkraine is taking out oil refineries inside Russia, cratering Moscow’s supplies and sending local prices soaring.https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-russia-diesel-prices-skyrocket-ukraine-war-drone-strikes-oil-refineries/
Politico: Diesel prices for Russian consumers have skyrocketed, rising almost 10 percent in the past week alone, according to the government’s figures. Petrol costs have also hit a six-month high, up more than 20 percent from the start of the year 13/ 
Politico: “Ukraine’s ‘physical sanctions’ can accelerate the actual ones,” Maria Shagina said “Kyiv has found Moscow’s technological vulnerability and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries speed up the impact of Western sanctions” 14/ 

So, this Ukrainian strategy is working.

But what about other targets? The criticism I listed above states that Ukraine is better off hitting electricity grid, command centers, or munition warehouses 15/ 

Target Option 1. Electricity transmission or generating facilities.

The problem is that it is very difficult to create serious damage with the resources Ukraine has.

The case in point is the three winter Russian campaign to black out Ukraine 16/Image

In the beginning, it looked easy for Russia. Let’s hit some power plants and transformators in Ukraine said Russia.

But several thousand ballistic and cruise missiles later, Ukraine electricity grid stands. 17/ 

But why? Because the Soviet Union has built in a lot of spare capacity, redundancy and robustness. Yes, Ukraine needs air defense and have built protective infrastructure around the critical infrastructure, but Russia can do that too 18/ 

In addition, as we all have learned, drones can do limited damage to power plants and grids, we need missiles. But Ukraine doesn’t have them!

So what’s then Ukraine to do? It found a vulnerability where a small drone can do major damage – oil refineries. 19/ 

Interestingly, Russia can’t reciprocate because Ukraine doesn’t have oil refineries (any more). 20/ 
A similar argument applies to weapon depots. They are well protected and a drone is unlikely to do much damage. Ukraine has learned to store its monitor in such a way that Russians cannot easily destroy it, even with missiles. Russians are not stupid and they are doing the same /Image
You also need up to date intelligence about which depot to hit and where exactly as weapons are moved around. That’s not the case with oil refineries. 21/ 
Then, there is logistics. Ukraine can hit logistical infrastructure, terminals, railroad etc. but it’s hard. Again, Russia has tried to do it in Ukraine with very limited success. 22/ 
All these ideas about which targets to hit have been already tried in this war. What’s new in the Ukrainian strategy is that they have found a vulnerability : oil refineries. They are immobile, you can’t hide them, they are easily flammable, and there are large areas you can hit/ 

They are also very difficult and costly to rebuild.

The next step is for the Russia to figure out how to protect them and for Ukraine to learn how to bypass that protection. We will see what happens. X 

Sumy:

Two vehicles of russian air defence system BUK were hit by Ukrainian combat drones on Sumy axis. As a result, one vehicle with six missiles was fully destroyed the other was damaged. pic.twitter.com/hbJIvGSCeG

— SPECIAL OPERATIONS FORCES OF UKRAINE (@SOF_UKR) May 2, 2024

/2. Loitering munition used to destroy Russian BUK was identified as Ukrainian RAM-2S https://t.co/d8s918cUFW pic.twitter.com/iFgb3eVwt5

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 2, 2024

Tatarigami and his Frontintelligence team have a new assessment on the potential Russian assault on Kharkiv and Sumy Oblasts. From the Thread Reader App:

May 2nd updates on frontline developments from the Frontelligence Insight, including the information about a potential Russian offensive in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts

Before proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility, as sometimes we get less visibility

🧵ThreadImage

2/ After successes in the Ocheretyne area, Russian forces now have slightly more than 10 kilometers of ground between them and the T0504 highway, which connects Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk. However, another potential threat is emerging from the northward-leading road.Image
3/ The Russian expansion into Arkhangel’s’ke widens their range of possibilities and complicates Ukrainian efforts to establish a cohesive defensive system across such a broad area, particularly given the understaffing of many brigades. 
4/ Frontelligence Insight analyzed imagery from April 22nd and May 1st to identify new scorch marks left by artillery or other projectiles. The results indicate Russian efforts concentrated in the western and northern directions, suggesting they may attempt to exploit this road.Image
5/ As mentioned in our previous update, Russians launched multiple assaults in the Bilohorivka-Siversk area. The 6th separate MRB tried to assault Spirne, south of Bilohorivka, with 1 tank and 3 MTLBs carrying infantry. Only 1 MTLB survived and retreated. Photo: @4emberlenImage

6/ The Kharkiv-Sumy Area Offensive (?)

There is speculation about Russia’s intentions to invade Sumy and Kharkiv oblasts, requiring clarification of key details.

We previously identified Russian forces equivalent to two corps stationed along the border of Sumy and Kharkiv. 

7/ Firstly, we have not observed the formation of a concentrated force capable of conducting a deep strike. Instead, we see scattered units that could potentially assemble into a striking force in the future, although this is not evident at present. 
8/ Based on available to us information, these units are mainly infantry-based and have insufficient tanks and armored vehicles for deep maneuvers. Therefore, any operations against Ukrainian forces in Sumy and Kharkiv will differ from the large-scale invasion seen in 2022 

9/ Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, suggests that Russia’s northern grouping, located across the border from Kharkiv, currently consists of 35,000 troops.

10/ This aligns with our earlier estimates of the force approximately equivalent to 2 Russian corps in the area. Skibitsky anticipates that Russia’s main offensive will commence “at the end of May or beginning of June.”Image
11/ While their increased presence poses some threat, the current force levels are insufficient for a significant deep maneuver into Ukrainian territory. Our team will continue to monitor the area to identify changes 

12/ Thank you for reading! If you enjoyed our content, please consider liking and sharing it with others.

Additionally, if you’d like to support us further, you can make a donation through our Buy Me a Coffee page.

Urozhaine:

/2. Another two Russian T-62 losses, also from the Urozhaine area. https://t.co/ta8zcmpUWxhttps://t.co/oL7UljPbqe pic.twitter.com/KKaxfTOiyh

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 2, 2024

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

⚡️Russians use kamikaze drones over nuclear reactors of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, – Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.

The Ministry showed a video from a Russian drone, obtained with the help of electronic surveillance equipment, which shows the UT4D. TT marking… pic.twitter.com/UGBzUC6Ahi

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 2, 2024

⚡️Russians use kamikaze drones over nuclear reactors of Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, – Ukrainian Defense Intelligence.

The Ministry showed a video from a Russian drone, obtained with the help of electronic surveillance equipment, which shows the UT4D. TT marking (indicating that the drone was supplied through the Russian Defense Ministry).

The drones are flying over the power units of the ZNPP towards the constantly shelled Nikopol and Marhanets communities. The Main Directorate of Intelligence added that the occupiers have equipped launch sites for their drones right next to the 6th reactor. In addition, since the summer of 2023, the Russians have been using the territory of the captured nuclear power plant for training FPV drone pilots.

Russian occupied Crimea:

2024 list of 6 Main Types of Bridges
•Arch Bridges.
•Cantilever Bridges.
•Cable-Stayed Bridges.
•Suspension Bridges.
•Tied-Arch Bridges.
•Kerch Bridges. pic.twitter.com/WVNP79VAjw

— Sergiy Kyslytsya 🇺🇦 (@SergiyKyslytsya) May 1, 2024

Smolensk Oblast, Russia:

Russian Telegram channels showed a video of the aftermath of a drone attack in Russia's Smolensk region last night.

It is reported that locals heard a series of explosions before the fire broke out.

Russian Krasnodar and Orlov regions also reported drones and explosions. pic.twitter.com/sLehVH9YLn

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 2, 2024

Moscow:

After being interviewed by Tucker Carlson, Russia’s leading fascist Alexander Dugin gushes about how much they have in common and says he doesn't want Americans to move to Russia, because he prefers they damage the West from within.
My latest for @CEPA:https://t.co/A5iguemRh3

— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) May 2, 2024

Julia Davis at CEPA:

Former Fox News host Tucker Carlson released an interview with a Russian fascist ideologue, Alexander Dugin, on April 30, which was pre-recorded during his pilgrimage to Moscow to interview the Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The program did not disappoint. For Russia’s propagandists, it provided a successful entry into American living rooms. For Dugin’s many detractors, it was another confirmation of the madness that lies close to the heart of the Russian regime.

Sometimes described as “Putin’s Rasputin,” only partly because of his heavy beard, Dugin wholeheartedly supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and describes Ukrainians as a race of degenerates who crept up from sewers and deserve to be eliminated through genocide. Ukrainians should be “killed, killed, killed,” the self-described philosopher has suggested.

The interview followed the by-now established Carlson pattern, with an earnest-faced broadcaster, his face creased with concentration, respectfully giving his subject the opportunity to make his points without interruption.

Most journalists would have used this opportunity to question Dugin about his ties to and influence on Putin, as well as his justification of mass murder and any possible connection to the fate of his daughter, killed in a 2022 car bomb explosion that may also have been targeting him.

To the contrary, Carlson chose to stay away from Russian politics and instead allowed Dugin to rail against “the Anglo-Saxon world.” Without elaborating on Dugin’s genocidal views, Carlson simply noted: “His ideas are considered so dangerous, the Ukrainian government murdered his daughter, and Amazon won’t sell his books.” (Some of Dugin’s books and interviews are, in fact, available on Amazon.)

Russian propagandists have long dreamt of injecting their ideas and twisted rendition of history into the American mainstream, often remarking that Americans are stupid and uneducated enough to believe just about anything.

Head of RT Margarita Simonyan has repeatedly stressed that Moscow should recruit and utilize Western influencers to reach foreign audiences. Even after being ousted by Fox News, Carlson is delivering in spades, which encouraged Dugin into post-interview interviews on state media to celebrate his successful penetration of the Western mind.

On his Telegram channel, Dugin boasted about 6 million views for his sit down with Carlson and even urged Russian authorities to unblock X (formerly Twitter) since it is now controlled by the “libertarian Elon Musk.” He expressed excitement about piercing the veil of the Western mainstream media, describing Carlson as “Journalist No. 1 in the world.”

Dugin told Carlson that the West loathes Putin because of his “values,” and not because of his military aggression. “Given someone with nuclear weapons is standing strong defending traditional values that you’re going to abolish, I think they have some basis for this Russophobia and the hatred for Putin.” Nodding along, Tucker bemoaned the “very serious” hatred the West has for Putin.

Interviewed by Roman Golovanov on the Solovyov Live channel on April 30, in a segment entitled, “Tucker was told about the Army of the Antichrist,” the host began by stating, “We often frame our current confrontation with the West as a battle against the Army of the Antichrist. Were you able to get this through to him?”

The American had come to learn and listen, instead of arriving with preconceived notions about right and wrong, Dugin said. He lamented the need to edit down what had been a long interview, so losing most of his philosophical musings.

The 61-year-old Russian claimed that Carlson had compared his interview with his earlier sit-down with Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán and praised both Dugin and Orbán as representatives of a culture and a civilization that is “much deeper” than that of the West. The interviewer’s reports from Moscow during his February trip included ruminations that Russian supermarkets were well-stocked and that Stalin’s metro system was free of graffiti.

According to Dugin, Carlson complained about disappearing freedoms in the United States — although how much sympathy he got from a cheerleader for the totalitarian system is unclear. He also recounted Carlson’s claim that people like Putin and Dugin understand Westerners better than they (Westerners) understand themselves.

It was disappointing that Americans have yet to concur with Putin’s view that they are part of a Satanist civilization and belong to a culture of the Antichrist. Nonetheless, he had noticed progress, with conservative Americans now “discovering” conservative Russia and thereby rethinking events in their own country.

After Carlson’s flop of an interview with Putin, which led to widespread mockery in the US and the broader democratic West, and during which the Russian despot treated Carlson with open disrespect, the regime’s propagandists had complained of a failure in approach.

Simonyan vocally argued that Carlson had asked anything about “traditional values” — which may be the reason Dugin stepped in to fill that gap.

Golovanov rejoiced that thanks to Tucker, as he called him, Americans are discovering another side of Russia, as opposed to knowing only figures such as the late opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who was being killed at the Kremlin’s hands at about the same time as Carlson’s Putin interview.

Dugin told Golovanov he has a lot in common with the American broadcaster and claimed that both are victims of Western “cancel culture.” The host proceeded to quote another fellow propagandist, Sergey Mardan, who described Dugin as “Putin’s philosopher” and claimed that the volume of his works would put any American professor to shame.

As for the big picture, Dugin wanted everyone to grasp, it’s all about Putin — as a visual embodiment of Russia, its tsar and ruler, who is preoccupied with the fate of the world and all humanity.

The state propaganda machine’s enthusiasm for Carlson is undiminished. To mouthpieces like Golovanov, he represents the “white Christians” who are moving to Russia with their entire families in such numbers that the price of land in Russia would soon skyrocket, as Americans are joined by Canadians, French people, Italians, and Germans.

This is a vision Dugin does not share. He cautioned Golovanov against welcoming Westerners into Russia, stating that it would be better for them to stay in their own countries and “damage the Antichrist from within.” He reasoned that by moving from America to Russia, these families would simply augment the nearly universal pro-Putin vote and, therefore, make no difference.

According to Dugin, only by remaining in the United States could these people vote for someone like Donald Trump or Tucker Carlson, which would destroy the West from within and benefit Russia much more.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron.

There are no new Patron tweets, so here’s some adjacent material from Ukraine’s Emergency Services in Odesa.

В Одесі попрощалися з собакою Кєтті, якого вбила російська касетна ракета 3 дні тому

Кінологічні розрахунки силових структур разом із господарями та просто небайдужими одеситами прийшли підтримати Кєтті та віддали честь і вшанували памʼять усіх тварин, які стали жертвами війни pic.twitter.com/b535zA1MCM

— Олег Володарський (@volodarskijo) May 2, 2024

The machine translation:

In Odesa, they said goodbye to the dog Ketty, who was killed by a Russian cluster missile 3 days ago

Canine members* of the security forces, together with the owners and simply caring Odessa residents, came to support Ketty and paid tribute and honored the memory of all the animals who became victims of the war

For some reason the machine translation rendered this as “cynological calculations.” I was going to use Anton Gerashchenko’s tweet of the video with his English caption, but it quote tweeted his tweet with Ketty and her human after the attack. I have avoided posting that here as you don’t need to see it. It is enough that I saw it for you. Here is what Gerashchenko wrote about Ketty’s funeral:

Odesa said goodbye to Ketty the dog, killed by a Russian cluster missile three days ago. Many dogs were present at the farewell ceremony for Ketty, including dogs who work in Ukrainian Emergency Services. This farewell was to honor the memory of all animals who became victims of this horrible unjust war.

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 800: Another Day Ending in Day, Another Russian BombardmentPost + Comments (30)

Open Thread: Podcasts and Reggie Update

by TaMara|  May 2, 20247:31 pm| 36 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I will confess to a bit of a crush on Tim Miller. When I first heard him as a commenter on MSNBC, I did not know that he was, a)gay, b)married c) a father, and d)a Republican – to say I was stumped by D would be an understatement. I still am. But he’s from Denver and a huge Nuggets fan, so that forgives a lot. LOL

A month or so ago, he took over as the host of the Bulwark podcast. Several have popped up on my YouTube feed and they weren’t awful.

These two I thought were worth sharing. First one is today’s where he and Gov. Josh Shapiro have a thoughtful discussion.

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And this one with Simon Rosenberg:

Now the obligatory Reggie update:

He’s fitting right in. My resolve to give him a week before solid intros was out the window pretty quickly. He’s very social, loves everyone and with the exception of Willow (oh, and how I was not expecting her reaction) they all love him. Sully has become the big brother I knew he would be. I connected with Reggie’s foster mom and found out he was raised with a Newfie, so he has no fear of the big dogs. I kind of wish he did, because he’s soooo tiny and they are soooo klutzy. He is not allowed to roam without me being around – which is fine by him – he loves to sleep in this cat crate. (ETA – I took the door off of it, so it’s just his little cave in my office). But while I’m here, he is Mr. Adventure.

I have misplaced him several times. The first time I found him like this:

Me: Crap, where is the kitten?

Sully: Relax, I got this.

(I have NO idea how he got on the bed. I’m sure claws were involved) I’ll have dog/kitty photos next time.

This is an open thread

Open Thread: Podcasts and Reggie UpdatePost + Comments (36)

Botox-Filled Rooms (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  May 2, 20244:31 pm| 165 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Domestic Politics, Elections 2024, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

This isn’t surprising, but it sure is repulsive: (Bloomberg)

Trump Auditions VP Picks Before Wealthy Donors in Palm Beach

Vance, Rubio, Burgum and Scott among leading contenders
Trump says he will likely announce running mate in July

Donald Trump is sharpening his focus on a possible running mate by taking a page from his days hosting reality show “The Apprentice” and parading the top contenders for the slot in front of rich benefactors this weekend.

Grotesquely attired, preternaturally smooth-faced GOP fat cats presiding over a Hunger Games-style winnowing process for potential Trump second bananas is painfully on brand. It’s a fitting successor to the fabled smoke-filled rooms — Boss Trump’s Palm Beach star chamber of aggressively rejuvenated billionaire scum.

This is not a healthy party. But we knew that.

Open thread!

Botox-Filled Rooms (Open Thread)Post + Comments (165)

Guest Post: The Country Was In a Mood for Protest

by WaterGirl|  May 2, 20242:00 pm| 195 Comments

This post is in: Guest Posts, Open Threads

I asked Martin if he might be willing to put together a guest post related to institutional responses to the protests, and he graciously agreed.   This is a smart, thoughtful take, and I am better for having read it.  Read it for yourself and see what you think!  And then maybe we can have a conversation.

The Country Was in a Mood For Protest

by Martin

If you watch any retrospective on the Vietnam War protest movement, it’ll probably offer up a line like that, as if the protest were gas filling up a space just waiting for a spark to ignite it – that is, the essence of the protest existed before the war did. I worked as an administrator in various roles for nearly 30 years where Muslim/pro-Palestinian vs Jewish/pro-Israeli interactions were a common occcurance. And while I’m now retired and not in a position to interact with students as I previous was, I think some of our previous lessons learned apply well here.

I never had primary responsibility for managing these interactions, but I did provide some of the input on how we would respond, and I did work closely with the students on many occasions. Over that period of time, the interactions would ebb and flow, increasing and decreasing in size and intensity, and in terms of the focus. Sometimes we had encampments, and sometimes not.

Setting some context, the Muslim/Pro-Palestine groups were always characterized as ‘protests’. The Jewish/Pro-Israeli groups were ‘rallies’. Sometimes one group set up first and the other countered, and sometimes the reverse. Sometimes they turned out together. The terminology was a combination of self-selection by the students but also by the press, other students, and so on. If both groups were present it was always a Pro-Palestine protest. There was always a clear ‘these oppose the status quo, and these defend it’ framing even though the actual things being discussed were effectively identical – some combination of how they get treated in the US (not great for either group) and what life is like in Israel/Palestine due to the presence of the other (also not great for either group).

I think the most charitable explanaion for the difference in perception is that Israel is a formally recognized nation and Palestine isn’t and therefore one is more ‘valid’ than the other. But this interaction started not that long after 9/11 so there was an unquestionable bias against the Muslim students at least in the beginning and that may have just stuck.

The ask was straightforward – the Jewish/Pro-Israel students wanted an end to suicide bombings or rocket attacks (whatever the prevailing hostitlity at the time was), and the Muslim/Pro-Palestine students wanted an end to settlements, to checkpoints, (also the prevailing hostility) but also a larger structural ask – a 1 state solution or a 2 state solution, and a smaller structural ask – divestiture. The geopolitical ask is what would get the press or community attention, and the divestiture ask was directed at the administration. Purely local asks don’t get much attention from the press. This is effectively how things looked to the outside, and you can probably recognize all of these elements to some degree in the various events in the news now.

But things are not this simple. There are times when the activities are ‘on’, when they are most performative, and when they are ‘off’, when things are quiet. The quiet times are the more important. Students talk about the events, they plan, but they also talk about other stuff. Increases in student fees, a change in policy, parking availability, all kinds of stuff. This is usually where you find the essence of the demonstration that existed before the spark. This is the grievance that allows the anger about the thing on the banner to surface so quickly and passionately. The emotional tank is full and doesn’t take much to spill over.  I’m not the first to observe this:

show full post on front page

On my campus this has meant the abrupt shuttering of offices that helped minority students, faculty and staff adjust to university life. Military veterans and first-generation students can still get targeted support, but not African-American students from Houston or Latinx students from the Rio Grande Valley or transgender students from Dallas. In early April, more than 40 staff members who had worked on diversity, mostly from minority backgrounds, were fired.

At the same time, new staff were hired by the conservative centers. They continue to provide comfortable and highly-valued spaces for their students. This dynamic has clearly whitened the University of Texas at Austin, as evidenced by immediate difficulties recruiting and retaining faculty and students of color.

This context is crucial for understanding recent protests on my campus, and others around the country. Many students, staff and faculty, especially those from minority backgrounds, feel that they have suffered setback after setback at the hands of hostile politicians and deferential administrators. They feel that they have less influence over their universities than at any time in recent decades, and they are largely correct.

This is what we learned in the early years of our student demonstrations, after many mistakes. Focusing on the ask, focusing on the performative part doesn’t get you very far – among other reasons, you’re not equipped to address them. We can’t solve the middle east conflict any better than anyone else. But we can work on identifying the other factors that filled up that emotional tank and drain those. Increasing staffing in Financial Aid so students can get help faster. Opening more study space. Addressing dorm crowding. Lowering parking fees. These are all things well in our power to address when you hear them coming up as recurring concerns during that off time, and they do contribute to the intensity and scale of the demonstrations.

Students wanted to be heard, and taken seriously, and you can do that independently of the ask. And it builds trust in the adminsitration so that if you do need to go to the demonstrators about a safety concern, they are more likely to believe that you have an actual safety concern. Instead of asking them to take an encampment down, can we move you over here where you’re still visible but aren’t blocking an evacuation route. We didn’t like the encampment, but the whole point of the encampment was that we didn’t like it. Not asking them to take it down is a soft way of saying ‘we respect your decision’. Trust has to be earned, and re-earned with every generation of students.

The other thing we learned to do was to channel that energy into something academic and trying to get the students to educate each other rather than yell over top of each other. This is a slow process, so it’s hard to do in a situation like this, but universities could have started in those initial demonstrations in October in the event things played out this long. Sending a message that ‘this viewpoint is worth discussing’ helps build that trust. You give them a space they can work which is prominent to student traffic and they can put up photos and written testimonials and pretty much whatever they want (that’s what worked for us – there are lots of ways to do this). You invite them to educate other students to their position – for all of the groups, which channels their energy, focuses their message, but most importantly, keeps them from being cleaved off from the rest of the university community.

It allows the adminsitration to keep pointing the students toward each other in a non-antagstonistic way. It’s talking instead of yelling, teaching instead of berating. It doesn’t help you when emotions have boiled over, but it helps keep them from boiling over, and it builds a culture of respect between the opposing groups because you put these spaces right next to each other. They always read each others’ stuff.

You’re trying to move their perspective from seeing the other student as someone like the Israeli settler who killed my relative or a Hamas fighter who launched a rocket into my uncles house to a fellow student studying economics that has their own trauma and merely disagrees on how to resolve this.

Sometimes they actually agree on how to resolve this, but are angry that various leaders are refusing that path. You’ve done your job when they both decide that the real problem is that its too hard to get parking and they start yelling at you about that – you’ve taken the emotion out of the disagreement and into something constructive. That’s the win. Thats’s something we can actually work on. It doesn’t make the demonstration go away – the students do still care about this thing – but it keeps it constructive.

The difficult thing for the administration is to draw the energy toward them. That’s counterintuitive. They think it makes the university look bad (as if letting things escalate to the point you need to roll the cops looks better) but disagreements on spending or whatever are absolutely normal things and when the university takes the time to listen to the students, more often than not either the university agrees completely with the students (none of us liked the fee increases either – they weren’t our call) or the students had a point the administration never considered, or maybe the students just wanted to be consulted and be part of the decision and not treated as if they had nothing to contribute despite the fact that they’re the customer and the one paying.

The point is, when the energy is directed at the administration and not other students, it’s actionable – you can get somewhere. When it’s all on Israel and Gaza, and lines get drawn up, you have no pressure valve to open there, and emotions are too high to discover the ones that you can open. Basically, you blew it, hope to hell you can avoid rolling the cops.

The final component of this is the interaction between the campus and the community. Universities have a ton of tools to handle student disciplinary problems with a focus on limting long-term damage to the student. Some of this is based in liberal ideas of reform and education and some of it is based on class protection.

It’s one thing to shield a student from a misdemeanor possession charge when they light up in the dorm, it’s another thing altogether to shield a student from a rape charge. (This is a whole other discussion.) But the point is that you have to say out loud to everyone, regularly, that those tools only work for students. There are different tools for faculty and adminstrators – normal employment stuff. And for the general public there is only the police.

The act of last resort for student behavior is the act of first resort for the public. You have to remind people of this constantly because they forget. You tell the students ‘hey, if you have someone from outside the community here and there’s a problem – we have to call the cops, campus policy doesn’t apply to them, so if you don’t want the cops, ask them to leave or tell us you have someone you don’t want and we’ll have them removed’. I, not a cop, could (at times) discipline students. But I’m just an employee to the public.

You have to remind administrators of this as well – if you don’t let the staff work this problem (basically, pay to have enough staff to work this problem) and trust the staff to work this problem, then it will get ignored until it grows to a police matter. This is an easier problem on some campuses than others. Ours was pretty easy and a lot of our success simply may not have been possible on more urban campuses (or at least with our approach).

When we had demonstrations – which was very often – we had staff observing, and the staff directed the cops, who were more often than not there. Over time the students came to understand the dynamic – the cops weren’t there because the adminsitration didn’t trust them, they were there to remove outsiders and allow the students to do their thing. I’m not sure the cops every fully internalized that dynamic, but they did respect the staff decisions. The goal was to make sure there was never a student/cop interaction without staff there and in charge – and that was very rare, and the goal was to keep it very rare.

The takeaway here is that the student demonstrations are about Israel/Gaza, but not just about that. The student community is in a mood for protest. We’ve been throwing a lot of oil soaked rags into this box since 2015 kind of hoping it wouldn’t ignite, and now it has. The instinct of the media is to frame this alongside the geopolitical conflict as Americans understand it, which is of a Muslim/Jewish clash – not a Palestine/Israel clash – and not a grassroots vs institutional power clash. Basically all student demonstration movements are grassroots vs institutional power clashes, and as a result they will reliably align on the grassroots side as they perceive it. It’s anyone’s guess why conservatives always shit on students.

I’ve been talking about USC in the comments as an example here, so I’ll do so again. 3 weeks ago USC had, best as I can tell, no active student demonstrations on the middle east conflict. But their administrative process has them choose a valedictorian before commencement, that student gets to give a speech and 3 weeks ago that happened. And the administration immediately cancelled the student speech citing safety concerns before the student even had a chance to pick a topic – presumably because the student (born in California) was Muslim, possibly of Palestinian ancestry, and minored in Resistance to Genocide, an academic program that USC offers, mind you, and had said some spicy but not over the line things on social media. Immediately, the campus got pro-Palestine demonstrations. Were those actually pro-Palestine demonstrations? Yes, but they were just as much student solidarity demonstrations – at least, the cancellation of the speech is what really filled up the emotional tank for the students because the administration unilaterally cancelled the students’ own speaker.

I’m sure the demonstrators were genuinely supportive of Palestine, but they were also backing up the valedictorian’s position for Palestine – not leaving her out there to hang alone, and also responding to the thing that USC signaled they were afraid of (for whatever reason) – that pro-Palestinian message.

Whatever message that student might have put out in her commencement address (again, she hadn’t yet chosen a topic) they were going to get out even louder now. So USC cancels all speakers for commencement, citing safety, and the demonstrations grow in size and intensity. So USC cancels the commencement (reminder: almost none of these students has a high school commencement 4 years before due to Covid) and now USC has an encampment, and in the last week roughly 100 people were arrested when the cops were called in. So much for avoiding the safety issues.

None of these escalations were related to events in the middle east.

All of these escalations were in response to actions by the administration. The flag may say Palestine on it, but these demonstrations are as much if not more about how USC students are treated by the USC administration.

Brown University is a different example. Similar to the other Ivies, there is a demonstration movement there, including a pro-Palestine encampment. Recently the students reached an agreement that the fauclty would vote on whether to divest from investments in Israeli companies and some defense manufacturers, and the camp came down. Did the students get what they wanted? Per the media narrative, no – the conflict in the middle east continues. Per the more nuanced narrative of the divestment, again, no. The students could have waited until the vote had taken place and then only disbanded the camp if the faculty voted to divest and continued their pressure if they didn’t. All the students actually got was a promise for a vote, with no assurance of the outcome. What they got was the administration listening to them, and taking their concerns seriously. Turns out that was enough – a vote. Costs nothing. It’s the only university I’ve see so far offer even that much.

Sometimes things enter a different phase. In 1970 four students demonstrating against the expansion of the war into Cambodia were shot and killed at Kent State. Almost immediately millions of students around the country turned out in demonstrations. They were still called anti-war demonstrations, even though they were clearly about the rights of students to express unpopular positions without getting killed by their own government. It was still a local issue (whether my university would protect me from the National Guard) but it was driven by national events.

That’s the phase we’re entering now. That’s why encampments all over the country have sprouted up just in the last few days even on previously quiet campuses. The response has been predictably poor, even at my institution which has been losing the plot for a while now.

Every campus is a community with its own unique issues. The student makeup varies wildly. Campus culture varies wildly. The relationship with the community varies. The tools available to deal with issues vary. How each campus manages this will need to differ – by a lot. But even if there’s an overarching theme to the demonstrations, there are always local issues under the surface that drive this and give it the shape it has. Those issues are what sets the mood, and usually we can’t see them from here. Keep these things in mind when consuming stories about the demonstrations, about what narrative is being told, and about whose voices we get to hear. Give thought to whether the narrative makes sense given the actual precipitating actions.

Guest Post: The Country Was In a Mood for ProtestPost + Comments (195)

It’s Up To Us Now, Next Up: Michigan!

by WaterGirl|  May 2, 20241:17 pm| 62 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Political Fundraising, Politics, Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24

It’s up to us now, as it always was.

Next up: Michigan, with Voting Access for All (VAAC)

We’ve been out West with states like Montana (Jon Tester is crucial!) and swing states like Arizona and Nevada, but now we are moving north and east to the Michigan, with its 15 electoral votes!

Remember VAAC?  Remember this video?

It was this video that led us to first support VAAC in 2022.  I urge you to watch it, even if you watched it 2 years ago.  It’s just over 1 minute long, and it tells you everything you need to know.

VAAC is working to educate, register and turnout voters who are incarcerated, formerly incarcerated, homeless, or “justice impacted” (referring to friends and family of the current and formerly incarcerated).

Michigan passed a law a few months ago – everyone who is released from prison is automatically registered to vote.  But the law doesn’t take effect until 2025, so it doesn’t help in November.

Short sidebar: Let’s talk about the difference between prison and jail.  If you’ve been convicted and sentenced, we are most likely talking PRISON.  If you are serving a relatively short term or are being held without bail before your court hearing, or as you are being processed, we’re talking JAIL.  Prison and jail are only interchangeable to people who have no contact with the criminal justice system.

Okay, sidebar over.  Back to the subject at hand!

The formerly incarcerated have had the right to vote in Michigan for at least 15 years.  But most are unaware of their rights, or are intimidated by stories of voters who have been fined or incarcerated in other states.   If you watched the video, you’ll know that sometimes being unaware of your rights is not accidental.  Some parole officers or folks who work in jail or prisons will tell you that you can’t vote even after you get out of jail.  Yep.  Disinformation strikes again.

VAAC is working to change that.

Okay, another sidebar.  This time, for some really sad news.  I didn’t tell you all before, because it never felt like the right time, but Danny – the really compelling guy who narrates much of the video – was killed a year ago in November. It was really quite shocking; he we shot and killed when he stopped for gas at a well-lit gas station at night.  Danny was one of the founding members of VAAC, and his loss left them reeling.  Where do they go from here?  Could they carry on without Danny?  Did they want to?  But VAAC was his vision, too, so they got back on the horse and are working their collective asses off in support of their mission.

If you want to read about Danny Jones and Earl Burton (who died of natural causes shortly after they lost Danny) you can read about their lives and their incredible impact on voting rights here.

So VAAC is back at work, and they have found us a $25,000 match.  $15k from the East Bay Community Foundation, and $10k from a private donor.  That $25,000 is being donated to VAAC specifically because we want to raise $25k for VAAC, and the donors were inspired by our offer.


Donate

What are we funding?  Just like last time, we are paying for teams who are doing direct work with the formerly incarcerated, not just to let them know they are eligible to vote, not just to get them registered to vote, but also to get them out to vote.

What, specifically, are these voting ambassadors up to?  They are:

show full post on front page

  • Going to prisons and jails to educate the incarcerated on their right to vote (and get them registered and out to vote in the Fall).
  • Educating County clerks on the law and providing them with written materials regarding voting rights to distribute to the incarcerated and the released.
  • Going to High Schools schools, mostly in the Detroit area, to put on assemblies regarding the importance of voting and voting rights and getting students registered.
  • Going to “expungement fairs” (legal clinics with volunteer lawyers) to register and motivate voters.
  • Going to homeless shelters to educate the unhoused on their right to vote, even without a permanent address.
  • Motivating voters to participate by emphasizing the state and local elections that have an impact on the criminal justice system.

The VAAC team is fired up and ready to go in Danny and Earl’s memory.

You may recall the zoom we had with VAAC in 2022; well, we’re having another one in less than 2 weeks.  It looks like our zoom with VAAC will be on May 14, 15, or 16, so please pencil that in on your calendar.  I think it’s fair to say that all of us who attended the zoom with VAAC in 2022 felt a real connection with them.  Kindred spirits.  We all felt it, even though the demographics and life experiences between BJ peeps and the VAAC peeps probably couldn’t be more different.

I’ll be putting up the thermometer today, as soon as I can get it made!

We do have a BJ Angel to get us started on meeting this match, so the initial donations will be double-matched, so donations up to $50 per person will be 4x the donation amount.

Out-raise them.  Out-organize them.  Out-strategize them.  Out vote them.

Open thread.

 

It’s Up To Us Now, Next Up: Michigan!Post + Comments (62)

Report From Sunny Gilead

by Betty Cracker|  May 2, 202411:40 am| 85 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Report From Sunny Gilead, The War On Women

The editorial boards of two Florida dailies, the Orlando Sentinel and Sun Sentinel, marked the May 1 imposition of the state’s 6-week abortion ban by jointly publishing an editorial titled, “A frightening tyranny over Florida women.” It’s paywalled, but here are a few excerpts:

Much of the nation — including Florida now — resembles a theocracy where women’s bodies belong to the state, not to themselves…

The greatest immediate danger is denial of emergency care to women with pregnancy complications. Physicians will necessarily think twice about what care to provide, even if delaying it might have lifelong consequences.

Many are to blame for Florida’s theocracy, starting with former President Donald Trump, who boasts of appointing the Supreme Court justices who repealed Roe v. Wade.

There are the six justices who did it; the Florida legislators who took advantage of what they did; Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose state Supreme Court appointments were as maliciously purposeful as Trump’s; the six Florida justices who signed an intellectually corrupt opinion excluding abortion from the protection of Florida’s constitutional right of privacy; and Attorney General Ashley Moody, who maintains that the privacy right applies only to the disclosure of information, not to police-state control of personal conduct…

Like Roe, Griswold and Obergefell depended upon the Constitution protecting the people of the United States from government intrusion into their private lives.

But now, many millions of women in the U.S., and in Florida particularly, are the handmaidens of theocrats who are doing just that.

The opportunities for so many people to do so much harm owe to fundamental fault lines in the constitutional order, and the triumph of “state’s rights” in the defeat of democracy…

Thomas Paine wrote, “tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered.” But in Florida today, the tyrants are winning.

Exactly right. Floridians have an opportunity to defeat the theocrats and restore abortion rights by passage of an amendment to the state constitution via a ballot initiative in November. But it needs 60% to pass, which is a tall order. We’ll see.

Meanwhile, Politico is still trying to make DeSantis happen. The latest is an article with the dumb title, “Has the DeSantis comeback already begun? His next act: Republican money machine.” An excerpt:

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Gov. Ron DeSantis is poised to take the most public steps yet to rebuild his political future after dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, campaigning for GOP candidates in Florida and beyond in the coming months — and taking a leading role in fighting an abortion-rights referendum in his home state.

Puts me in mind of a quote from Beatrix in Kill Bill, “Bitch, you don’t have a future.”

That said, DeSantis doesn’t really have another play except to align himself with the fanatical opponents of Florida’s grassroots abortion rights initiative. He knows the supermajority threshold makes passage difficult, so he’s positioning himself to take credit if the initiative fails to clear that hurdle.

DeSantis is inextricably connected with the abortion ban regardless — it was a presidential primary stunt that he 100% owns. I don’t think it bodes well for his political future beyond the most fanatical outposts of the wingnut welfare circuit, but who knows?

Politico goes on:

After months of sniping with Donald Trump, DeSantis will soon use his connections and fundraising network to help the former president — and is expected to bring in millions of dollars. But he’s also raising money for members of Congress, including Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Laurel Lee (R-Fla.). Both backed his bid for president.

Someone in comments the other day made an excellent point about the so-called DeSantis funding juggernaut. They noted that DeSantis was the generic not-Trump into whom Trump-weary GOP donors collectively poured their funds for the 2024 primary. Mostly on the strength of idiotic media hype and ignorance about Florida’s bizarre politics.

DeSantis has since proven to be a dud. Will GOP donors contribute to a slush fund so the dud can play kingmaker? Stranger things have happened in the Disarray Party, but color me skeptical.

Open thread.

Report From Sunny GileadPost + Comments (85)

Trump’s NY Criminal Trial, Day 10

by WaterGirl|  May 2, 202410:00 am| 89 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments, Trump’s NY Criminal Trial

.It’s Day 6 of the actual trial!  Day 910 10 if you include jury selection.

Best sources of live blogging that I have found.

Mark Sumner at Daily Kos – Live Blogging

Josh Kovensky at TPM – Live Blogging    (no live blogging on TPM so far today but he is on twitter)

Good morning from Manhattan criminal court, where we're about to get underway with a contempt hearing in the Trump trial. The judge said he wants the contempt hearing to be brief, and testimony should resume around 10:00

— Josh Kovensky (@JoshKovensky) May 2, 2024

.

It’s a foggy, misty morning at 100 Centre St, where I’m waiting to enter the courtroom for Day 10 of Trump’s NY criminal trial.

I’ll be reporting it all today, alongside @AnnaBower and Ben Wittes, for @lawfare. Join me! 🧵⚖️ pic.twitter.com/9Kkik588IL

— Tyler McBrien (@TylerMcBrien) May 2, 2024

Looks like Anna and Tyler will both be doing the live blogging today.

Hello from 100 Centre Street, where my editor is donning a dog shirt for Day 6 of Donald Trump’s trial.

I’ll be in the courtroom for @lawfare.

And good news for @TylerMcBrien fans: He’s back to provide your minute-to-minute coverage from overflow ⬇️https://t.co/n8YguX0LaN pic.twitter.com/FUU4Hk8uax

— Anna Bower (@AnnaBower) May 2, 2024

 

It's Day 10 of Donald Trump's NY election interference trial.

Today, he's joined (again) by Boris Epshteyn, who is fresh off his indictment in Arizona last week for his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results in that state.

— Katie Phang (@KatiePhang) May 2, 2024

TRANSCRIPTS OF NY CASES AVAILABLE THE NEXT DAY   Link

Emotional support pup and kitty for the occasion.
I will look for a new image for next week.

Trump Trial: NY Election Interference Case, Day 1

I’m still interested in the trial, so I’ll put this up again today, but think of it as a general open thread, too.

Trump’s NY Criminal Trial, Day 10Post + Comments (89)

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