We must continue to be resilient, determined, and achieve Ukrainian goals in this war – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

18 February 2024 – 21:41

Dear Ukrainians,

As this week, a very challenging week, is coming to an end, it is important to note several things.

First, gratitude to all our soldiers, all those working in defense, and all those who are helping. This week, the hearts of all those who care – not only in Ukraine – have experienced feelings of concern for our heroes, for our Avdiivka, for every defender, and for the fate of all our people, for the fate of our entire state.

The battle continues, and the main thing in this battle is that we are doing everything possible and impossible to defeat the Russian evil and protect as many Ukrainian lives as possible. Ukrainians have fought heroically before, but for the first time in its history, Ukraine has achieved such global solidarity and support. And although there are different political sentiments in the world, different flashes of problems that distract attention, we still – all together – do our utmost to have the world with us – with Ukraine. Therefore, so that our soldiers can stop the Russian inhumanity and return what is Ukrainian to Ukraine. I thank everyone who fights, who helps, who maintains resilience and determination.

Second, it’s the concrete support of the world. This week has brought our state two more agreements on long-term cooperation and support with leading countries. Germany. France. Our security agreements are very ambitious. Once again, thanks to Chancellor Scholz, President Macron, everyone in our teams who prepared the agreements and entered into them exactly what we need. Defense support, joint political steps, further institutional relationship systematization for greater security and collective strength. We are also working with other partners on new agreements – it will be a very effective and comprehensive architecture of security commitments. Things that will serve to restrain Russian aggression in the future and help protect independence now.

And third, the Munich Security Conference. Very fruitful participation this year. Our Ukrainian perspective on the global agenda was supported by our partners. I had negotiations with the leaders of Denmark, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic – we have a decision on additional support. Also, with the leader of Azerbaijan – as always, a good productive conversation that can strengthen both our nations and the entire region. I met with the Prime Minister of Bangladesh and the President of Guatemala. Also with American partners. Conversation with President Biden – very important points, including about Avdiivka and the need for continued principled and sufficient support for Ukraine. Talks with the Vice President of the United States – very substantive. Meetings with congressmen – representatives of both parties, both houses of the U.S. Congress. And each such conversation clearly confirmed the key point: Ukraine alone can stop Putin and create conditions for him to be punished for all the evil he has done. But for Ukraine to achieve this success – to protect its land, its people, and our common truth, everyone in the free world – Ukraine must not remain alone. Support is important. Solidarity – is important. Only together, in unity, can we win in this war.

We must continue to be resilient, we must continue to be determined. We must achieve our Ukrainian goals in this war.

Glory to Ukraine!

Denmark:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1759155582756438372

https://twitter.com/KateMcKenna28/status/1759115524511002947

Denmark has decided to transfer all its artillery to Ukraine, – Prime Minister of the country Mette Frederiksen

“Ukraine is asking us for ammunition and artillery now. We, Denmark, have decided to transfer all our artillery to Ukraine. So, sorry, friends, there is military equipment in Europe, it is not only a matter of production. We have weapons, ammunition, air defense systems, which we do not use yet. They must be handed over to Ukraine,” the official stressed.

Ukraine Online

Did I mention that the House of Representatives has taken a two week vacation?

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1758960839648809342

https://twitter.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1758960842836422845

Earlier today Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian Foreign Minister, shared his view of the strategic environment in a long tweet thread. I think it is important to read it and really hear what he is trying to convey. Landsbergis is viewing what is going on as someone from a state and society that was scarfed up by the Soviet Union and then dominated by its Russo-centric culture. Context always matters. His context is of a state and society that spent decades in subjugation and that is being actively and vocally threatened with that subjugation once again. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App.

https://twitter.com/GLandsbergis/status/1759271051177943311

It is good practice to evaluate things honestly – with all their gloominess. And if we don’t shock ourselves back into action it will get worse. In Ukraine, in the rest of Europe and possibly globally. 🧵 

Ukraine is starved of ammunition and forced to pull back, Europe is facing challenges which might test Article 5, and global instability emerges because autocrats are emboldened by Russia’s action and our cautious response. This is not pessimism. This is fact. 🧵 

Baseless optimism is a form of self-deception, it is demobilising us. How can we expect to convince the public to spend more on defence, take a stronger stance against Russia and support countries on the eastern flank if leaders won’t admit there is an urgent need? 🧵 

And we need action right now, because tomorrow might be too late. We need a push, a jolt, a shock to wake us up. The war is not over, it’s far from won, the enemy is very much alive and our European future is at stake. 🧵 

I have no doubt that the West has the capacity to help Ukraine win this war. That is a fact. It is also clear that Russia’s industrial power is no match for the united West. But… 🧵 

We don’t lack capacity, we lack the political will and urgency necessary to support Ukraine and maintain our collective security. Russia, on the other hand, has the will to destroy Ukraine and reestablish the Russian Empire. When will we start using our capacity to deter this? 🧵 

Currently we are an open book to our adversary – clear red lines of non-engagement, disagreements over continuation of assistance and an optimistic blindness to increasing risks. We show no urgency in ramping up our readiness. 🧵 

Strategically the goal should be to change Putin’s calculations. Disrupt the field. I know it’s not easy, but it is better to admit mistakes and chart a new path forward, rather than to engage in empty self-congratulation.

So yes, I am returning from Munich a bit gloomy. 🧵

Laura Rozen has helpfully transcribed key portions of Masha Gessen’s interview with WNYC.

https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1758605953329410259

https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1758606387544764439

https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1758625888936014072

https://twitter.com/lrozen/status/1758683662407635436

Here’s the last section of Masha Gessen’s recent New Yorker piece that Rozen said to pay attention to: (emphasis mine)

What I Saw

I can’t get one passage out of my mind. In the history-lecture portion of the interview, when Putin got to 1939, he said, “Poland coöperated with Germany, but then it refused to comply with Hitler’s demands. . . . By not ceding the Danzig Corridor to Hitler, Poles forced him, they overplayed their hand and they forced Hitler to start the Second World War by attacking Poland.” (This is my translation.) The idea that the victim of the attack serves as its instigator by forcing the hand of the aggressor is central to all of Putin’s explanations for Russia’s war in Ukraine. To my knowledge, though, this was the first time he described Hitler’s aggression in the same terms.

Putin has reproduced Hitler’s rhetoric before. Ten years ago, announcing the annexation of Crimea, he seemed to borrow from Hitler’s speech on the annexation of Sudetenland. At the time, I assumed that the language had come from a speechwriter who knew what they were doing while Putin may not have. But the way Putin described the beginning of the Second World War in his interview with Carlson suggests that, although he keeps accusing Ukraine of fostering Nazism, in his mind he might see himself as Hitler, but perhaps a wilier one, one who can make inroads into the United States and create an alliance with its presumed future President.

It’s telling, too, that Putin took the time to accuse Poland of both allying with Nazi Germany and inciting Hitler’s aggression. As he has done with Ukraine in the past, he is positioning Poland as an heir to Nazism. He mentioned Poland more than thirty times in his conversation with Tucker. If I were Poland, I’d be scared.

There’s a reason that the senior national security officials in the Baltic states, Poland, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and several other EU and NATO member states keep stating that they expect Putin to attack one or more of them in the next few years. They’re not delusional, nor are they fear mongering. They are listening to what Putin is saying, reading what he is writing, and watching what he is doing. What they are hearing and seeing has led them to conclude that they, their states, and their societies are in jeopardy regardless of their status as members of NATO. While it is true that they have their own socio-historical biases regarding Russia that frame their understanding of the threat. It is also true that we need to recognize that we have our own and rather than mirroring onto these states and societies we should engage with what they are telling us.

They are seeing and hearing what the US is failing to do. They are seeing and hearing what Putin and other officials are saying:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1759177798218875318

And they are drawing reasonable and responsible conclusions from the empirical reality they are observing and acting appropriately.

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1759195559272108467

Russian occupied Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1759367808360632820

So, Z-Russians on Telegram are now talking about their losses in the Battle of Avdiivka in 2023-2024.

Allegedly, it’s 16,000 men as ‘irreplaceable losses’ (e.g., all fatalities + all severely wounded that will never be back to ranks again), as well as around 300 armored vehicles.

So, if that’s true (though it’s likely that Russians traditionally understate their losses, at least when it comes to lost equipment, given the gargantuan amount of verified video footage we’ve seen) — it means that over the four months of the Avdiivka campaign between mid-October and mid-February, the Russian fatalities rate surpassed the official death toll of the Soviet-Afghan War (1979-1989), which stands at 15,000 fatalities.

Yes, the ill-fated and formerly sadly-remembered senseless war in ‘Afghan’ that once left a heavy scar on an entire generation and particularly precipitated the fall of the Soviet Union…

Fighting for Avdiivka continued since the very days of 2014 and 2015 and lasted with varying intensity all those years before 2022, and was also extremely bloodletting and fierce for almost two years of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Moreover, the claimed Russian death toll at Avdiivka… literally corresponds to some 50% of the city’s entire population in 2021 (some 32,000).

And that’s within the last four months alone and according to likely downplayed Russian estimates.

I guess that to take New York City, Russians would have to ditch 4.5 million soldiers under the same scheme or what?

And the defense of Avdiivka gradually crumbled particularly due to a severe lack of munitions and means to counter Russian jets relentlessly throwing dozens of guided bombs at the city each and every day. Stalemate around the Ukraine aid at the U.S. Congress is already taking its toll.

And amid all those shortcomings, see the absolutely savage efficacy of the Ukrainian defense, outnumbered and outgunned, — again.

A four-month battle vs a 10-year-long war in Afghanistan. Those are death toll estimates from Russians, not us.

We could have been celebrating victory over the aggressor right now, or at least we could have been much closer to restoring just and stable peace in Europe if Ukraine had been provided with everything it asked for.

There’s still time.

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1759142020898042165

Uhh some painful doomposting from rus volunteer Murz, he found out the numbers of irreversible losses in Avdiivka and it’s not making him happy. And he really seems to like Syrsky.

Keep in mind that he is risking his ass by voicing this information, so it must be really getting to him.

 

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1759366696844849292

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1759312752420561130

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1759295578482106674

Here’s the screen grabs of the letter:

Russian occupied Mariinka:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1759308825734119752

Diakove, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1759165125380981019

Kramatorsk and Slovyansk:

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1759195894996459693

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos. So here’s one from Anton Geraschenko about another very good Ukrainian girl!

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1757518019968827826

Open thread!