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Republican obstruction dressed up as bipartisanship. Again.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

Conservatism: there are some people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

Everybody saw this coming.

“Squeaker” McCarthy

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

Damn right I heard that as a threat.

If senate republicans had any shame, they’d die of it.

Why is it so hard for them to condemn hate?

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

A sufficient plurality of insane, greedy people can tank any democratic system ever devised, apparently.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Only Democrats have agency, apparently.

No one could have predicted…

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

The next time the wall wtreet journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

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You are here: Home / Archives for Past Elections / Election 2014

Election 2014

Battle Flag Acquisition Strategies

by Betty Cracker|  June 23, 20156:41 pm| 107 Comments

This post is in: Crazification Factor, Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Fables Of The Reconstruction, Lindsey Graham's Fee Fees, Nixonland, Organizing & Resistance, Politics, Post-racial America, Republican Stupidity, Republican Venality, War, Women's Rights Are Human Rights, Assholes, Decline and Fall, Fuck Yeah!, General Stupidity, Meth Laboratories of Democracy, Our Failed Political Establishment, Rare Sincerity, Riveted By The Sociological Significance Of It All, Sociopaths, The Decadent Left In Its Enclaves On The Coasts, The Dirty F-ing Hippies Were Right

battle-flags_edited-1

Early this morning, I was doing some research on the endurance of corporate culture, studying how sometimes the spirit of a smaller, acquired firm can permeate the larger, acquiring organization. It’s not unusual for a big behemoth to acquire a scrappy smaller company solely for the purpose of infusing the moribund giant with fresh blood, and when the companies’ interests align, it can create an unstoppable marketplace force…for a while.

With that dynamic still on my mind, I moseyed over to Booman’s place and read a post that hit upon something that has been bothering me about the focus on the rebel flag in the wake of the domestic terrorist massacre in Charleston:

But the focus on the Confederate Flag can have an unfortunate side effect. What, after all, does that flag mean when it doesn’t simply mean white supremacy?

It’s meaning in those cases in nearly identical to the meaning of the modern conservative movement. It’s about disunion, and hostility to the federal government, and state’s rights. It’s anti-East Coast Establishment and anti-immigrant. It’s about an idealized and false past and preserving outworn and intolerant ideas. It’s about a perverse version of a highly provincial and particularized version of (predominantly) Protestant Christianity that has evolved to serve the interests of power elites in the South. It’s about an aggrieved sense of false persecution where white men are playing on the hardest difficulty setting rather than the easiest, and white Christians are as threatened as black Muslims and gays and Jews.

“Those blacks are raping our women and they have to go.”

That’s what the Confederate Flag is all about, but it’s also the basic message of Fox News and the whole Republican Party since the moment that Richard Nixon promised us law and order.

But it’s not black people who have to go.

It’s this whole Last Cause bullshit mentality that fuels our nation’s politics and lines the pockets of Ted Cruz just as surely as it has been lining the pockets of Walmart executives.

Today, maybe the governor down there had an epiphany. Maybe this massacre was the last straw. But, tomorrow, we’ll all be right back where we began with Congress acting like an occupying Confederate Army.

If we solve a symbolic problem and leave the rest untouched, then what will really change?

You can’t bury the Confederate Flag without, at the same time, burying the Conservative Movement.

Let’s get on with it.

He’s right. For many white people, the rebel flag represented moldy old myths about the antebellum South. But think about how nicely that mythology dovetailed with the lies about the pre-Civil Rights era that paleocons like Pat Buchanan tell themselves.

Like a moribund corporation, the GOP acquired Confederate culture with the Southern strategy, harnessing the racism in the South and its echo nationwide to build the present day Republican Party. That’s why Ronald Reagan launched his presidential campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi. That’s why an always-wrong, New York City-born legacy hire who is relentlessly eager to send other people’s kids off to die in glorious causes is tweeting nonsense that his ancestors would find…puzzling:

The Left’s 21st century agenda: expunging every trace of respect, recognition or acknowledgment of Americans who fought for the Confederacy.

— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) June 23, 2015

So, the rebel flag should come down in South Carolina and every other state capitol in the former Confederacy, and with surprising (to me) swiftness, it looks like it will. That will be more than a symbolic victory; it will be the partial righting of a very old wrong.

But there’s a danger in “otherizing” the South in this context. It’s not wrong to condemn its blinkered myth-making and prideful backwardness, but there’s a hazard in moral preening within and outside of Dixie, a risk of declaring a tidy victory when the dinosaurs in the state capitols of the former Confederacy finally sink into the tarpit they’ve thrashed in for 150 years.

The risk is that we’ll lose focus on the modern day “Congress acting like an occupying Confederate Army,” as Booman put it. At its core, the Southern strategy was an attempt to roll back progress by hitching the anti-New Dealers’ star to the creaky old Confederate wagon. Its organizers weren’t all or even mostly slack-jawed yokels waving rebel flags. They included a fiery libertarian business man from Phoenix, a glib B-movie pitchman who hailed from Northern Illinois and a twitchy, paranoid Quaker from California.

To achieve true victory, we have to finally drive a stake through the heart of the Southern strategy, not just the Confederacy. So let’s make expunging the rebel flag from the public square the opening salvo in a larger battle to take our country back. Yes, that’s right, TAKE OUR COUNTRY BACK. With no lies and decaying myths about what that means. The flag that represents it isn’t spotless. Its founding was rooted in slavery, genocide and the oppression of women. But unlike its dying counterpart, this flag is worth saving.

Battle Flag Acquisition StrategiesPost + Comments (107)

Three Time Losers

by Betty Cracker|  May 28, 20156:13 pm| 152 Comments

This post is in: Election 2008, Election 2010, Election 2012, Election 2014, Election 2016, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity, General Stupidity

I’m sure most of us have many reasons to fervently hope that whichever hairball the GOP horks up for the presidential nomination in 2016 is soundly rejected by voters. But for me, not least on that long list is the hope that a third straight drubbing at the polls might prompt the Republicans to do some serious soul-searching.

Three presidential losses in a row prompted many Democrats to sell out the New Deal and adopt the corporate-friendly DLC bullshit line. Maybe Bill Clinton had to ride the Third Way slide to two-term victory — that’s debatable. We didn’t have to be happy about it, but it was better than another Poppy Bush term or a Bob Dole presidency.

Anyhoo, in this morning’s Wake Up Sheeple thread, I mentioned that losing three presidential races in a row (please FSM, let it be so!) would be a big fucking deal for Republicans. Not everyone agreed. Valued commenter JustRuss made some excellent points in the following reply:

To a party that cared about governing, sure. But “the party” is mostly the money, and they just want the government to stay the hell out of their way. And with the IRS and EPA being starved, TPP and other trade deals in the hopper, Citizen’s United, fracking bans being overturned left and right, they’re doing fine. Sure, it would be nice to have a Bush in the White House, but they’re getting most of what they want regardless. Having a Democrat in the White House gives them someone to blame when things go sideways and is a great focus for the rage their constituents are addicted to.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but I’m not convinced you’re right either.

Those are all great points, and if the GOP could ride the current status quo forever, I’d agree that they could just disregard presidential losses indefinitely. But I don’t think they could maintain the status quo in the face of a mounting string of losses at the presidential level, even if they managed to keep winning in mid-term and state-level elections for a while.

Presidential elections in this country (maybe everywhere else too — I don’t know) are about a lot more than a transfer of specific powers; they’ve morphed into an absurd, trillion-dollar reality show spectacle, with the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat. Politics is a team sport.

And people don’t like losing over and over. If it keeps happening, they swear off the sport or find another team. Oh sure, some diehards will stand with their shitty loser team through thick and thin (maybe 27% or so). But the fan base won’t have a healthy growth rate, and the less committed will slink off to sulk at home or maybe even join another bandwagon.

That’s my theory, anyway. What do you think?

Three Time LosersPost + Comments (152)

Happily Wrong

by David Anderson|  January 23, 20154:30 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Election 2014, Election 2016, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

I’m happy that I’m probably going to be wrong about what I’ve written about Arkansas’ private option plan.  I thought there would be a good chance that the private option and thus Medicaid expansion would be nixed in Arkansas because it has a strong majority coalition but an extremely fragile super-majority coalition in 2013 and 2014.  The November elections tossed out a few marginal supporters and replaced them with Teabaggers who out-teabag Lipton, and the outgoing governor who championed the private option with an incoming governor who was non-committal about the entire thing.

I thought that meant the end of the private option after this year.  I was wrong as the Arkansas Times explains that I was wrong in both the essence, and a critical detail as it looks like the Arkansas private option will get slightly less punitive and slightly better for people making under 100% of the federal poverty line.

He (the governor) is asking the legislature to fund the private option for two more years, and he’s asking for a legislative task force that would lead the way on an overhaul of the state’s health care system in 2017.

But there was also little piece of policy news buried in the bill filed yesterday by Hutchinson’s nephew (and previously outspoken opponent of the private option) Sen. Jim Hendren. If passed, Hendren’s bill would make a couple of tweaks to the existing private option. It would halt co-pays and the Health Independence Account program on private option beneficiaries below the poverty line, and it would nix future transitions of certain populations now on traditional Medicaid over to the private option.

Medicaid co-pays for people making under 100% of the federal poverty line tend to be nominal.  Usually it will be $2 or $3 for office visits and prescriptions and up to $8 for emergency room visits that don’t result in admissions.  Most states don’t enforce the co-pays and will reimburse providers for co-pays that weren’t paid.  It is a massive administrative burden for little gain in either reduced costs per service or utilization reduction.   Arkansas has tight eligibility requirements for Legacy Medicaid, so that population is probably sicker and more expensive than the current private option population.  Keeping current Medicaid beneficiaries on Medicaid is an interesting choice as Arkansas pays a significant percentage of their care, while the Feds pick up the entire cost of care for current private options members, and will pay a higher percentage in the future.  However, it also lowers the overall medical expense of the entire Exchange risk pool in the state, so it could lower net premiums.

Overall, I was wrong, and I am very glad to be wrong about Arkansas this week.

Happily WrongPost + Comments (15)

First derivative beats comparative analysis

by David Anderson|  December 16, 20149:07 am| 10 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance, Election 2014, Election 2016, Fables Of The Reconstruction, How about that weather?, Politics, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome, Blogospheric Navel-Gazing, Fools! Overton Window!, Good News For Conservatives, Peak Wingnut Was a Lie!

Commenter Fair Economist raises a possible point of political hope for PPACA in that states that implement PPACA even with the Supreme Court fucking with them are doing well, and states that are actively monkey-wrenching PPACA are doing poorly.

They got away with the comparisons in 2014, but if 2016 involves a comparison to other states doing much better *and* their own states having done better with Exchange subsidies

I was in a twitter conversation with Sheldon Weisgrau who is a technical expert and ACA advocate in Kansas where he brought up the same general point:

@bjdickmayhew @hiltzikm Agreed, slower cost growth requires info on what costs would have been. But that’s another messaging issue . . .

— Sheldon Weisgrau (@ACAResource) December 4, 2014

I think messaging is fundamentally a magical talisman. A good message may move a point or two of public opinion in a reasonably short time frame (a year or less) if it is an opposed message with some elite signalmakers pushing back against the message. It is not a panacea. Most people don’t make complex multi-variate comparisons across time and space as an operative part of their voting calculus. Instead they rely on far simper heuristics of “how am I doing, how are my friends/family doing, and do I feel secure…” That last phrase “feel secure” basically contains a massive error term as it could include quite a bit of non-economic uncertainty/fear/comfort etc. Finally, we as a species fear loss far more than we prize gains.

We know for modeling purposes that the American voting public has an extreme recency bias in voting in presidential elections. People assess what the ecnomomic situation is two to three quarters before the election, anchor their impressions there and vote from that basis. A quick up-wards pop in the 4th quarter of the previous year and the 1st quarter of the election year is an amazing aid to an incumbent, and a pair of snowmagedeons as well as an inventory reduction could be political diseaster greater than the American public seeing a candidate ask for and enjoy fancy mustard. A standard Federal Reserve recession at the start of a first term is probably a President’s campaign manager’s best friend as there would be a very high probability of a rapid V-shape recovery in the second half of the first term.

We saw it this election cycle. Menzie Chinn at Econbrowser has been running a very long series of posts on the economic performance of Wisconsin and Minnesota. Minnesota has embraced standard Keynesian economics and Obamacare. Wisconsin has had a public policy of attempting to become the Mississippi of the North — low wage, low service, low tax, low education. Minnesota on employment, growth and government budget projections has massively outperformed Wisconsin in the past four years. Wisconsin has consistently lagged the national averages while Minnesota has consistently met or beat national averages.

Yet both states handily re-elected their incumbenet governors despite vastly different policy regimes producing clear differences in results.

Good messaging helps, but it won’t help much. Comparative performance helps, but it does not help much; if comparative economic performance was a major determinant of political affiliation, the South would have moved rapidly away from reactionary white power at some point in the past three hundred years. Absolute performance is the determinant — are things better but not are things as good as they could be, but is the first derivative positive?

First derivative beats comparative analysisPost + Comments (10)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  November 18, 20146:19 am| 102 Comments

This post is in: Election 2014, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

My thanks to commentor dww44 for the clip. Partial transcript, from the original blog post, “GOPlifer” Chris Ladd in the Houston Chronicle:

Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.

What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.

For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster…

… We’re about to get two years of intense, horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate scandal that reveals Obama’s real plans for America then you’re an idiot…

Y’all should watch O’Donnell’s clip, or else read Ladd’s whole post, because the numbers laid out there are heartwarming.

Apart from the usual political skirmishing, what’s on the agenda for the day?

Tuesday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (102)

Why do Democrats Lose?

by John Cole|  November 12, 20148:51 pm| 78 Comments

This post is in: Election 2014, Clown Shoes, Democratic Cowardice, Democratic Stupidity

This is why we lose:

Senate Democrats are working on plans to hold a vote authorizing construction of the Keystone XL pipeline — approval that Democrats believe might bolster the chances of Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), who faces a tough runoff election next month.

It was not immediately clear Tuesday night whether Republicans would consent to proceeding with such a vote during the lame-duck session that begins on Wednesday — especially given the high stakes surrounding Landrieu’s reelection race. Such a move would also draw howls from the environmental movement who had hoped that President Obama would resolve a years-long dispute over a long-awaited energy project in their favor.

Several Senate Democratic aides confirmed on Tuesday evening that talks are underway to allow for a vote authorizing construction of the pipeline in the coming days. The aides, who were not authorized to speak publicly on the matter, said that details on language of the bill authorizing and its timing were not yet settled, but likely would be among the topics of conversation as Congress reconvenes Wednesday.

Landrieu is expected to make a formal announcement of plans to hold a vote later Tuesday or on Wednesday, the aides said.

Well, that makes a shitload of sense. The Senate is out of our control until the next election when we might pick up a few seats, so Landrieu’s seat really isn’t that important now (although I do agree that every seat is important). The DSCC has basically pulled the plug on the campaign, and the polls show her behind. She’s not going to win, and really, no one is going to notice.

So why on earth would the Democratic party cave on Keystone? Why? What is the possible point? It will not do anything for the economy, it is not going to have an impact on domestic fuel prices, this is Canadian oil drawn from the most environmentally damaging way possible, and it is going to infuriate environmental groups. Allowing this vote does nothing but show the Democrats are spineless and many of them don’t stand for anything.

Trust me, we don’t need this stunt to provide us more proof.

Why do Democrats Lose?Post + Comments (78)

Open Thread: “A Simple Message for A Simple People”

by Anne Laurie|  November 8, 201411:00 pm| 79 Comments

This post is in: Election 2014, Open Threads, Post-racial America, Bring On The Meteor

Whatever his multitudinous flaws, I have to agree with Maher that the one definitive narrative of the election was neither “post racial” nor particularly well-thought out. “Everyone is horrible, so it must be Obama’s fault” was a great message for the GOP… this time.

Open Thread: “A Simple Message for A Simple People”Post + Comments (79)

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