“Probe with bayonets. If You encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”
— Vladimir Lenin
Sorry for the delay, been a busy week, but I wanted to take a few moments and do the promised post on what is going on with Russia and Ukraine.
Reports have been trickling in from a variety of sources that Russia has been repositioning significant military assets near its western border with Ukraine. This has followed an increase over the past ten days or so of Russian Information and Psychological Operations directed at Ukraine, the US, NATO, and the EU.
While the Russian Ministry of Defense did announce military exercises along the border, these satellite images of the known Pogonovo training ground are worth pointing out amid heightened tensions between Russia and and Ukraine. https://t.co/73J1vLnSMs
— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) April 8, 2021
Alongside the Iskander, which likely belongs to the 119 Missile Brigade, @JanesINTEL has identified an influx of Central Military District troops to Vorenezh:
‣ 74th and 35th Motorized Brigades
‣ 120th Artillery Brigade
‣ 6th Tank Regimenthttps://t.co/Nm0opK90pg— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) April 8, 2021
The official US position is that this is just repositioning for a military exercise:
A US official tells CNN that the US does not see the amassing of Russian forces as posturing for an offensive action, but that they are conducting training and exercises and intelligence has not indicated military orders for further action.https://t.co/JXNL0VuwP7 pic.twitter.com/uLXebN0YeP
— Rob Lee (@RALee85) April 8, 2021
This includes reports that Russia has mobilized all of its military assets everywhere.
This is actually a full mobilization of the Russian armed forces into combat readiness.
Everything from sleepy Siberian depots and air force bases to nuclear submarines and the tank divisions.#Russia https://t.co/ihO3Gxyh6m
— Petri Mäkelä (@pmakela1) April 6, 2021
And, of course, the Information Warfare and Psychological Operations are in full swing:
In Russian state TV, experts gladly discuss Russian nuclear strike in case of further escalation in Ukraine. “This will make Americans fear and we will be able to do what we want” – is the main message. pic.twitter.com/eEcbUg6U2B
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) April 6, 2021
Yes, this is what they love to discuss. One friend of mine used to say “whoever Russia fights, it always imagines it fights the US troops”.
— Sergej Sumlenny (@sumlenny) April 6, 2021
Under Biden, games are over.
Instead of laughing about Trump’s embarrassing subservience to Putin, grim-faced experts on state TV anticipate harsh measures against the Kremlin by the Biden administration.
“We could end up living like we’re in Iran"https://t.co/kN4YZyQWY6
— Julia Davis (@JuliaDavisNews) April 6, 2021
What I specifically think is going on with Russia vis a vis Ukraine is something similar to what we saw back in late Winter/early Spring of 2014 before Putin moved on eastern Ukraine and Crimea once the Olympics were over. Basic maskirovka principles of diversion. Russian media has been going 24/7 on and on about how Ukraine has mobilized additional assets and is preparing to take back eastern Ukraine and, perhaps, even Crimea by force. And that the US is going to move military assets into Ukraine, which is just hyperbolic fantasy for domestic Russian consumption.
The reporting also includes an explicit threat presented as real concern that this could become a tactical nuclear war, which ignores the fact that Ukraine doesn’t have nukes. But it is effective in the Information domain of reinforcing actual Russian military doctrine that, if the Russian military is unable to win a conventional fight, then Russia will use its nuclear weapons tactically to reverse conditions in the battle space. Putting out this type of information is itself part of Russia’s Information Operations/PSYOP doctrine for setting the battle space ahead of military operations. The purpose of this is to freeze the US and NATO from taking action because neither are willing to risk a nuclear strike by Russia or escalation to a nuclear exchange. I’m not really sure this information warfare is effective, but it is in line with Russia’s military doctrine of using Information warfare and PSYOP to set the battle space ahead of actual military operation at the same time that they are physically preparing to set the theater of operations.
At the same time, all of this also provides a convenient way for Putin to change the topic from the fact that Navalny appears to have contracted either COVID or TB from the other inmates on his cell block, that they’re torturing him using sleep deprivation, and that he’s now in the infirmary as a result of a combination of whatever respiratory infection/disease he’s contracted and the effects of his hunger strike.
Russia’s build up and increased Information warfare and Psychological Operations directed at Ukraine, the US, NATO, and the EU is also not happening in a vacuum. The Russians and the PRC are in fact quietly collaborating. We’ve been watching it in real time in Libya where the Russian backed Libyan general is being supported by not only Wagner mercenaries, but also Erik Prince’s Frontier Services Group, which is wholly owned by the PRC. The attempted coup in Jordan?* We already know one of Prince’s Israeli associates was involved. And Prince is the bridging node here between the PRC/Xi and MBS of Saudi and MBZ of the Emirates, who appear to have been behind the coup. So I have no doubt that there is, at least, informal coordination by Putin and Xi, as well as regional players like Muhammed bin Salman, Muhammed bin Zayed, and Bibi because all of them suddenly are facing a very different strategic reality with the Biden administration than they did with Trump who didn’t actually give a damn about any of this stuff beyond being able to have these authoritarians say nice things about him while they took advantage of him.
One final point: this is basically the equivalent, by Putin and Xi at the geo-strategic level and Muhammed bin Salman and Muhammed bin Zayed and Bibi at the regional strategic level, of the bad guys increasing operations during a Relief in Place/Transfer of Authority (RIP/TOA) just as the outgoing units are almost out of the area of operations (AOR) and the incoming units are just fully taking control as the left seat/right seat ride comes to an end.
And in Putin’s case it conforms to Lenin’s statement: “Probe with bayonets. If You encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.”
Right now Putin, as well as XI, Bibi, Muhammed bin Salman, Muhammed bin Zayed, and everyone else is probing to see what Biden and his team will do. In Putin’s case it is entirely possible that he is high on his own misinformation and agitprop supply that Biden is some sort of addled, neurologically ill mental case that is being taken advantage of by Ron Klain, Kamala Harris, and Tony Blinken who are really running the US government. Regardless, all of these bad actors, even the ones like Saudi, the UAE, and Israel that are supposedly partners and clients, are probing. If they find steel, they’ll withdraw. If they find mush, they’ll proceed.
That said, I’d like to see us call Putin’s bluff. The US Army has recently stood back up V Corps. It should be temporarily relocated to Kyiv and it should be plussed up with the 1st Armored Division and the rapid response brigade combat team – the 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team – should be brought from FT Bliss and Vicenza respectively to keep them company. Operational Detachments Alpha (ODAs) from the 10th Special Forces Group, Civil Affairs Teams Alpha (CAT-As), and theater strategic Psychological Operations Teams should be added as enablers from Special Operations Command Europe (SOCEUR). Let the conventional elements train with our Ukrainian, NATO, and EU partners. Have the 10th Group bubbas do some Foreign Internal Defense training, the CAT-As do some military support to government work, and the PSYOPers conduct some counter-Psychological Operations with their Ukrainian, NATO, and EU partners.
Open thread!
* It’s been a busy week. I’m nowhere near caught up, but hope to be by tomorrow noon. So I’ll hopefully get to the Jordan post I promised sometime this weekend.
Russian Mobilization, Ukraine, and What the Hell Is Going On?!?!?!Post + Comments (58)