Let’s start tonight by focusing on the where of the next ground attack, which will be coming from the northeast, east, southeast, and south of Ukraine. Below is the latest geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) on where the Russian military is from the British Ministry of Defence.
While you can click on it to make it bigger, here’s the shorthand for what you’re looking at. The salmon colored areas are Russian controlled. With the exception of two gaps, the first between Izium and Luhansk and the second farther north between Kharkiv and Sumy, the Russians basically have control over everything from Crimea north and a bit west to Kherson then all the way around the eastern border of Ukraine with Russia. The areas colored in with the diagonal hashing are contested. The one I want to focus on is the one between Izium and Luhansk. In this area Ukraine’s eastern forces, known as the Joint Forces Operation (JFO), are basically exposed between two different elements of the Russian invaders. The Ukrainian position is forming a salient, which you can see in the map below made by Ukrainian journalist Illla Ponomarenko:
The blue lines on the map indicate where the JFO is in relation to the areas under Russian control, still in salmon, and from which the Russians can and most likely will attack. As you can see, the JFO is surrounded on three sides by the Russians, which means it is very vulnerable. It can be encircled and reduced. The Ukrainians, now that they’ve held the central portion of the country and Kyiv is safe from land based attacks, need to both reinforce the JFO as soon as possible and reposition its front lines vis-a-vis the Russians to avoid it being encircled and reduced. Just as the Russians are racing to get units reorganized and moved to the south and east of Ukraine, as well as to bring in fresh personnel and equipment from Russia and other places, the Ukrainians need to be moving with all possible haste to get the JFO both reinforced and its position adjusted to ensure it isn’t going to be entrapped and destroyed.
Here’s today’s assessment from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:
The operational update regarding the russian invasion on 12.00 on April 4, 2022
The fortieth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the russian military invasion continues.
A russian enemy continues to conduct full-scale armed aggression against Ukraine. A russian enemy command, in order to prepare for an offensive operation in east of Ukraine, deploys elements of the operational construction of the offensive group and increases the C2 system. A russian occupying forces are regrouping and trying to improve the tactical situation in some areas in southern Ukraine. The formation and relocation of additional units of a russian federation to participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine continues.
In the Volyn direction, the situation has not changed, units of the Armed Forces of the republic of belarus, with forces of up to four battalion tactical groups, continue to perform tasks to cover the border.
In the Polissya direction, there is a high probability of missile and bomb strikes on military and civilian infrastructure by russian enemy planes operating from belarusian airfields.
There is a movement of units of the Eastern Military District and airborne troops from the territory of the republic of belarus to the russian federation. The movement of weapons, military equipment and personnel is carried out by rail and air.
According to available information, separate units of the 35th All-Military Army (Belogorsk) and the 36th All-Military Army (Ulan-Ude) of the Eastern Military District are located in the settlements of Rechitsa and Yampol (Gomel Region of the republic of belarus).
In the Siversky direction, the enemy completed the withdrawal of units from the Central Military District to the Kursk region and began their further movement.
In the Slobozhansky direction, the enemy continues to blockade Kharkiv, carry out artillery shelling of the city, and regroup troops. Strengthens the air cover of important objects in the area of the city of Belgorod and areas of concentration of troops in the Kharkiv direction.
To clarify the positions of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the enemy is conducting reconnaissance in the area of the village of Barvinkove with the use of UAVs, also trying to restore the bridge over the river Siversky Donets near the city of Izyum. Near the settlement of Brazhkivka, with the help of a tank company tactical group, the enemy conducted reconnaissance by battle, had no success, and retreated to the previously occupied frontiers.
There is still a high probability of air and missile strikes on civilian targets in Kharkiv, and preparations are underway for an offensive in the direction of Slovyansk.
In the Donetsk and Tavriya directions, the main efforts of the enemy are concentrated in the areas of the settlements of Rubizhne, Popasna, preparation for the attack on Siverodonetsk, as well as gaining full control over the city of Mariupol. On it today a russian enemy struck 8 air strikes, street fights proceed. Ukrainian defenders are defending the city.
At the same time, the enemy completes the regrouping and replacement of units that have lost offensive capabilities in order to resume active offensive operations.
In the South Buh direction, our troops are pushing back the occupiers in the Kherson oblast. The enemy carried out air reconnaissance around Mykolayiv with use of the UAV.
In the Black Sea and Azov operational zones, the activity of the enemy ship group in the Black Sea is reduced due to difficult weather conditions (storm up to 4 points). The rest of the enemy ships perform tasks in certain areas.
Together to victory! We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! Keep calm! Glory to Ukraine!
There is video circulating today of a large number of Ukrainian Marines who supposedly surrendered in Mariupol early today or yesterday/over the weekend. I’ve seen no official confirmation of this yet, I’ve seen at least person claim the video is several weeks old and not from Mariupol, and the accounts initially posting the video are all pseudonymous with no way of knowing who is actually running them despite having high speed sounding names, even if they are being retweeted by people using their own names who are legitimate and usually credible. So until there’s more clarity, I’m just going to acknowledge this is out there and move on without further discussion.
Much more after the jump.
War for Ukraine Update 41: The Focus Shifts To the EastPost + Comments (56)