Life being a time-limited proposition, I know it’s unwise to wish away the minutes and hours. But goddamn, am I ever glad this interminable workweek is nearly over. Open thread!
And Now For Something Completely and Totally Predictable
BREAKING: @SenatorCollins says she will not factor in Roe v. Wade: "she won’t factor a nominee’s support for the landmark abortion-rights ruling of Roe v. Wade into her confirmation decision." This is unconscionable. Set her straight. #mepolitics https://t.co/lkQSXu4OVj
— Topher Spiro (@TopherSpiro) June 29, 2018
Like I said yesterday, pinning your hopes for saving on the people who have wanted this for decades is pointless. Burn it all fucking down.
Speaking of, this fucking cocktease:
A MONSTER asteroid as big as New South Wales is cannoning past Earth so close it can be seen by the naked eye.
But don’t worry. It won’t bite.
NASA has calculated the space rock’s orbit carefully.
Bring it, motherfucker.
And Now For Something Completely and Totally PredictablePost + Comments (265)
Expect big MLR checks in the fall of 2019
Many individual market buyers in several states should expect to see surprising checks in the fall of 2019. These will be Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) rebate checks. Insurers are required to spend, on a three year rolling average, 80% of the premium dollars on claims and quality improvement expenses. If they spend more than that, that is fine. If they spend less than 80%, the insurers need to cut checks to their policy holders.
Over the past couple of years, there have not been large checks cut as insurers weren’t making large profits anywhere in the individual market. That is changing. 2017 looks to have been a very profitable year for insurers. 2018 looks to be even more profitable. There is a good chance that the 2016-2017-2018 time period will produce several states with an average MLR well below 80% as the first quarter results plus initial 2019 rate filings strongly suggest that insurers in many states overpriced their premiums for 2018.
The Kaiser Family Foundation has a raw MLR table. Raw MLR is Claims/net premiums. It is not the MLR that CMS uses to calculate rebates. The CMS MLR tends to be a point or two higher in general than a raw MLR.
I think the states that have a 2016-2017 raw MLR average of under 85% where 2016 raw MLR is greater than 2017 raw MLR have a good chance of seeing significant rebate checks in 2019. Three states qualify:
- North Carolina
- Alaska
- Missouri
These three states had low levels of 2018 insurer competition (Alaska 1 insurer for the entire state, Missouri and North Carolina 1 insurer for most of the state).
Another seven states have a raw 2016-2017 average MLR of less than 85%. I think Arizona and Oklahoma are the states that are most likely to see big pay-outs as the no pay-out 2018 MLR target is greater than the 2017 MLR. Again, these states are low competition states. Oklahoma had a single insurer for the entire state and Arizona’s counties were all single insurer.
Eyeballing the data it seems that MLR rebates are likely to occur in low competition states rather than high competition states but I don’t have firm proof on that yet.
I will be curious as to how the politics of significant MLR rebates play out as they pay out. I had a cynical moment last October when I thought about this for the first time in the context of CSR payments:
in the fall of 2019, rebate checks start showing up just as final rates are to be approved. If there is still CSR uncertainty, rate regulators will have strong incentives of getting great press on being tough on the insurance companies by forcing them to hand out very large checks to tens of thousands of residents….
And then in the fall of 2020, ambitious state insurance commissioners will be handing out rebate checks in late September as they are running for Governor or the Senate. Or if they are a bit less ambitious, they are supporting the incumbent party by handing out checks and injecting new federal money into the state and making the fundamental background economic picture a bit better than it otherwise would have been.
I might be getting too cynical today.
Is that how things will play out?
Expect big MLR checks in the fall of 2019Post + Comments (16)
On the Road and In Your Backyard
Good Morning All,
This weekday feature is for Juicers who are are on the road, traveling, or just want to share a little bit of their world via stories and pictures. So many of us rise each morning, eager for something beautiful, inspiring, amazing, subtle, of note, and our community delivers – a view into their world, whether they’re far away or close to home – pictures with a story, with context, with meaning, sometimes just beauty. By concentrating travel updates and tips here, it’s easier for all of us to keep up or find them later.
So please, speak up and share some of your adventures and travel news here, and submit your pictures using our speedy, secure form. You can submit up to 7 pictures at a time, with an overall description and one for each picture.
You can, of course, send an email with pictures if the form gives you trouble, or if you are trying to submit something special, like a zipped archive or a movie. If your pictures are already hosted online, then please email the links with your descriptions.
For each picture, it’s best to provide your commenter screenname, description, where it was taken, and date. It’s tough to keep everyone’s email address and screenname straight, so don’t assume that I remember it “from last time”. More and more, the first photo before the fold will be from a commenter, so making it easy to locate the screenname when I’ve found a compelling photo is crucial.
Have a wonderful weekend folks, and enjoy the pictures!
If it’s Friday and it’s not the World Cup, it must. be. otmar! Wahoo!
Friday Morning Open Thread: Who’s Going to A ‘Families Belong Together’ Rally This Saturday?
630 women in foil blankets are being arrested in Hart Office building now as they chant “Abolish ICE” and demand an end to family detention. #WOMENDISOBEY pic.twitter.com/k3J1lmqIPA
— Women's March (@womensmarch) June 28, 2018
From a commentor:
Looks like LAO and I (RedDirtGirl) are going to meet up for the Foley Square demo and march across the Brooklyn Bridge. Any chance of including that info in a post before the weekend? It would be great to have a jackal contingent there.
Jump into the comments, if you’d like to meet up with other jackals in your area!
That’s why we ALL have to march against the brutal child separations. We must keep up the pressure for reunification. These families have to be reunited because the separation policy is an atrocity and because, if it’s not stopped, it’s only the beginning. https://t.co/xDtyvD77t8
— Walter Shaub (@waltshaub) June 28, 2018
Everything You Need to Know About the Families Belong Together March on June 30 https://t.co/yjUYkaQgwQ @voguemagazine
— les64 (@GreenBitch54) June 29, 2018
It looks like literally the entire country is protesting family separations on Saturday. Check out this map of planned protests. https://t.co/hy7TmLaTNU pic.twitter.com/gpt2trEUbD
— Jennifer Bendery (@jbendery) June 28, 2018
RUMPS AGAINST TRUMP!
FAMILIES BELONG TOGETHER MARCH 06/30/2018 Donald Trump and his administration are cruelly separating children from their families. Saturday, June 30 at 10 a.m. Dallas City Hall #protestdogs pic.twitter.com/P8UhSUfVFk
— CorgisAgainstTrump (@CorgisAntiTrump) June 26, 2018
Russiagate Open Thread: Trump & His Fellow Repubs to the Finland Station
This is where the formal surrender documents will be signed. pic.twitter.com/2hXz03aCI3
— Benjamin Wittes (@benjaminwittes) June 28, 2018
“Let the past die. Kill it if you have to.” https://t.co/dvocveHAfc
— Daniel W. Drezner (@dandrezner) June 27, 2018
be grateful to be alive at a time when your country needs saving https://t.co/1LlMGbQ2l3
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 27, 2018
The President once again defending Russia’s innocence in electoral sabotage that *helped him get elected*, as he sets up a summit w Putin is the same as his “Russia, if you’re listening” moment. He’s telling them to keep going! He’s rooting them on.
— Chris Hayes (@chrislhayes) June 28, 2018
Yesterday, Secretary Pompeo said he was certain that Trump would confront Putin about election meddling. Today, Trump sets him straight. pic.twitter.com/MU66WQyLV7
— Taylor Griffin (@tgriffinnc) June 28, 2018
So I know you're ready for your quarterly review in Helsinki when you're sucking up to the bosses at the home office. https://t.co/vQE3cnoKvM
— Rick Wilson (@TheRickWilson) June 28, 2018
I suppose it could be a kompromat issue for these six, too, but IMO it’s more likely they’ve just decided Putin is the one with the power and they’re irresistably drawn to power…
Senators visiting Russia say they hope Trump shares their tough message to Putin – ABC News – https://t.co/1iJgLmgIrt via @ABC
— Ali Rogin (@AliABCNews) June 28, 2018
… “Russia has decided to meddle in other countries’ elections, including ours. Russia has invaded Ukraine, taken Crimea, it’s prolonging the war in Syria. And I’d prefer to be a friend of Russia and that’s one of the things we’re going to talk about. I would like to respectfully ask the Russians to stay in their own lane,” Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., one of the senators who will be on the trip.
“It’s useful for the Russians to know that we are of the belief, evidence is clear, that they intruded in our elections and it will be something I hope that members of Congress convey,” added Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kansas, also noting that senators had planned their trip before the Trump/Putin summit, to be held in Helsinki on July 16, was announced.
The meeting was organized by Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Richard Shelby, R-Ala., who told ABC Thursday that they are hoping to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, but that the meetings were not yet confirmed. Other attendees include Sens. Steve Daines, R-Mont., John Hoeven, R-N.D. and John Thune, R-S.D…
Shortly before traveling to Moscow with several colleagues, a senior Republican senator all but gave Russia a green light for future interference in U.S. elections https://t.co/piYURK8Vxr
— The Daily Beast (@thedailybeast) June 28, 2018
Russiagate Open Thread: Trump & His Fellow Repubs to the Finland StationPost + Comments (50)
Late Night Open Thread FEATURING STEVE
I love this guy so much. We had our nightly chill session where he sits with his butt on the arm of the chair and his paws on my chest and I pet him and tell him how amazing he is and he purrs in my ear and shoots me a look that says “You know it, bitch.” Then I decided I would share with you. Here he is posing for you:
Then he really turned up the glam and gave us a profile shot:
That magnificent motherfucker.