As I’ve watched and read the coverage on the tape of Trump’s 2005 Access Hollywood appearance that came out yesterday, his campaigns initial response, his taped apology, and the responses to all of it I’ve seen and read several variations of the question: “why is this the incident that finally seems to have done him in?” or “why does this matter when the dozens of previous problematic statements haven’t?”. Joy Ann Reid (a National treasure in terms of American journalism) asked it this morning on her show AM Joy. Paul Campos asked it at Lawyers, Guns, and Money. I think there are actually three competing dynamics going on right now that are important to note, but before I get to them I want to make clear that I don’t think this has, necessarily, done him in as the GOP nominee. Though I do think it is unlikely he’s going to recover from this in terms of completing a successful campaign and getting elected.
I think there are three competing dynamics going on right now. The first is from the professional Republicans. This includes the elected officials such as the Senators and Congresspeople that have denounced, but not unendorsed (the majority) and that have denounced and unendorsed (the minority – for now). Josh Marshall has written a bit about this dynamic already this evening; highlighting the damage that has begun to be inflicted on Speaker Ryan and Congressman Heck. And this as new information is starting to come out as drips become streams. This includes audio (at the link) of Trump telling Howard Stern that it was okay to refer to a then 22 year old Ivanka as a “piece of ass”. And that during a 2012 legal case, Trump offered to show his “manhood” to Gloria Allred, who was representing the trans woman suing Trump, and stating that he believed Allred “would be very impressed with me, I really do”. The professional Republicans, elected officials and the professional campaign, communication, and management Republicans involved with the Republican National Committee, that work for Republican members of the House and the Senate, that work on their campaigns and for the various PACs all seem to be reacting by denouncing, with some also unendorsing and some not doing so (for now). This is one response, but it is the response of the party elites and notables.
The other two dynamics are among actual registered Republicans and conservatives that vote Republican regardless of party affiliation. These two dynamics are what is important for Trump remaining in the race, as well as for what damage he does to the professional Republicans. The first dynamic is among religious Conservatives, especially the broadly defined Evangelical Christians (Evangelicals, Charismatics, and/or Fundamentalists). Several commentators have asked how the Access Hollywood tape would play tomorrow morning when these folks are at church. I think a better analysis is this 19 tweet essay by Sarah Posner. Posner thinks that this is going to play very, very badly with Evangelical women as they’ve either experienced, or know someone who has experienced, sexual harassment, sexual assault, and/or rape by powerful men within their own communities. Men who were able to get away with it or justify it because of their power. Posner thinks the “they let you get away with it if you’re a star” portion of Trump’s remarks may be very damaging among this block of Christian women. Conservative Christian men, however, are likely to be a different story
And this is where the final dynamic comes in: Herrenvolk democracy. Herrenvolk democracy is a democracy that is defined in regard to a specific in group: the people. Its tribal. And in the US Herrenvolk democracy was and is a democracy for white Christians. And here’s where I think the second and third dynamics are going to potentially collide. As I wrote back in April after Trump’s address on foreign policy, the closest thing that Trump seems to have to a foreign policy concept is: I will ensure that America will be treated fairly or else! Specifically, the Trump Doctrine as I called it, is:
… really the animating force or theme of the entire Trump campaign. The other candidates had better treat Donald Trump fairly, the Republican National Committee better treat Donald Trump fairly, the Republican establishment better treat Donald Trump fairly, the media better treat Donald Trump fairly, the state level parties that handle the primaries and all the delegates chosen better treat Donald Trump fairly. And Donald Trump will make them treat him fairly! And the only candidate, nay the only person in America who can ensure that you are treated fairly is Donald Trump. And if he isn’t treated fairly or the US isn’t treated fairly, then he will get even!
Trump’s appeal has always been this core of the Trump Doctrine “only I (Trump) can ensure that you and America will be treated fairly, or else!” This is important within the context of American herrenvolkism. We have significant amounts of survey data that tells us that white Christian Americans believe that they and their version/understanding of Christianity’s influence is waning in the US. This includes the belief that they are themselves the most discriminated against group in the US – not African Americans or Hispanic Americans or LGBTQ Americans or Muslim Americans or those mistaken for Muslim Americans. To these Americans, the vast majority of whom are among Trump’s most fervent supporters, the Trump Doctrine and its herrenvolkish nature appeal directly to them and their fears – no matter how unfounded those fears may be in objective terms. They are scared and Trump has promised to not just fix the people, places, and things that scare them, but that he will do it quickly and without mercy. These are the people that are booing Speaker Ryan and Congressman Heck. And they are the people that Senators McCain and Ayotte, (and about a 1/2 dozen others) are scared of even as they have unendorsed Trump.
The question is going to be just how far their support for Trump will go. I’m reasonably confident it will go far enough to keep him as the candidate. His surrogates began to pivot to this message in today’s coverage, that Trump is the anti-establishment candidate and he represents all of those that have been left out and left behind. The Trump Doctrine’s promise of only “I, Trump, can ensure you and America will be treated fairly or else!” is to what the surrogates are referring. What remains to be seen is whether Trump’s herrenvolkish supporters will also punish the professional Republicans, specifically the members of the House and Senate up for reelection that pull their support from Trump, by withholding their support for them in their election and reelection bids. It is this calculus that has led dozens and dozens of professional Republicans to tie themselves into knots over the past 30 hours or so. And while that remains to be seen, the Presidential Town Hall in St. Louis approaches…
Finally, the question of why this/why now remains. I think that this dovetails with the herrenvolkish appeal of the Trump campaign. The attack on Mexican immigrants – undocumented or documented – on Syrian refugees and Muslim immigrants (and tourists for that matter), on Judge Curiel and the Khans, on Alicia Machado, and on the Central Park Five all appeal to the herrenvolkish concerns of Trump’s supporters. All of these groups or specific people are not part of the volk, the people. They are outsiders that, at best, may be tolerated. This is why Trump’s, his sons’, and sometimes his campaign’s flirtation with white supremacists/white nationalists and the alt-right was tolerated. Members of these groups are part of the volk, the people. But what did we actually have happen in that Access Hollywood video? We had Trump admitting that he aggressively pursued a married, white woman who was also, if not an elite, certainly a notable because of her celebrity. For professional Republicans and conservatives, men and women who have been incorporating and promoting the nebulous (and often not honored even in the breach) concept of family values for going on forty years, that place marriage for women and motherhood as the only acceptable sexuality for women (regardless of their own – male or female – personal behavior), and that think that one of the few actual roles for government is to regulate female sexuality and reproduction via statute and regulation – at both the Federal and state levels – Trump’s attempt at cuckoldry was too much. Here too the herrenvolkish concept comes into play. As long as Trump was being sexually crude and vulgar about non-white women, as long as his affairs and lechery seemed to be in his past, it could at least be ignored, if not tolerated by the professional Republicans and conservatives. But the Trump on the Access Hollywood video goes beyond that. Trump, on that video, is making a direct attack on marriage by admitting to trying to pursue a notable, celebrity married woman. And that was the bridge too far. Now we wait to see who wins this fight. The professional Republicans and conservatives or the members of the Republican Party that support Trump.