Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

Polls are now a reliable indicator of what corporate Republicans want us to think.

If rights aren’t universal, they are privilege, not rights.

She burned that motherfucker down, and I am so here for it. Thank you, Caroline Kennedy.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

Every reporter and pundit should have to declare if they ever vacationed with a billionaire.

Take hopelessness and turn it into resilience.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

“The difference between stupidity and genius is that genius has its limits.”

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Let’s delete this post and never speak of this again.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

Technically true, but collectively nonsense

Radicalized white males who support Trump are pitching a tent in the abyss.

The worst democrat is better than the best republican.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Republicans firmly believe having an abortion is a very personal, very private decision between a woman and J.D. Vance.

We still have time to mess this up!

We will not go back.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

Republican speaker of the house Mike Johnson is the bland and smiling face of evil.

Thursday Evening Open Thread

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Thursday Evening Open Thread 6

(Drew Sheneman via GoComics,com)

I think the chances of the senate taking the house bill as written are 0. How different is the question, yeah.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) May 22, 2025 at 11:04 AM


====

A bill is gonna happen because they have to do that – the GOP presiding over the largest combined tax increase in history would be an electoral nightmare (or so they believe) and they're going to get something over the line.
What it ends up being? No idea.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) May 22, 2025 at 10:53 AM


=====

When the ACA passed, many House Dems voted for it knowing it would likely tank their chances of reelection. They did it because expanding health care to millions was worth it.
Last night, GOP “moderates” likely ended their careers to take that health care away. Imagine doing that. Monsters.

— Dave (@mccdave.bsky.social) May 22, 2025 at 10:17 AM


====

Simple media message: they voted to throw millions of people into poverty so they could line their pockets.
More complex media message: and they are currently threatening to end the data collection policy analysts could use to show that.

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— Stephen Nuñez (@socio-steve.bsky.social) May 22, 2025 at 8:49 AM


=====

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Thursday Evening Open ThreadPost + Comments (12)

Update: Kilmar Abrego Garcia: ‘Keep Him Where He Is’

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The Trump administration used three federal agencies attempting to save face over an accidental deportation.
‘Keep Him Where He Is’: How Trump Officials Debated Handling of the Abrego Garcia Case.
www.nytimes.com/2025/05/21/u…

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— Greg Todd (@1gregtodd.bsky.social) May 21, 2025 at 6:43 PM

The Washington Post explained how Trump’s inner circle conspired to kidnap an individual and hustle him (among others) beyond reach, they hoped, of the law. The NYTimes prefers to document the hapless bureaucrats scrambling to clean up the debris left by some mysterious twist… [gift link]

A mistake had been made. That much was clear.

The Trump administration had deported a Maryland man named Kilmar Armando Abrego Garcia to a prison in El Salvador, even though a judge had issued a ruling expressly prohibiting that from happening.

But when the news reached the Department of Homeland Security, it set off a dayslong scramble and clashes among officials in three different agencies over how to deal with what everyone knew had been an error. As it became clear that keeping it quiet was not an option, D.H.S. officials floated a series of ideas to control the story that raised alarms among Justice Department lawyers on the case.

In the days before the government’s error became public, D.H.S. officials discussed trying to portray Mr. Abrego Garcia as a “leader” of the violent street gang MS-13, even though they could find no evidence to support the claim. They considered ways to nullify the original order that barred his deportation to El Salvador. They sought to downplay the danger he might face in one of that country’s most notorious prisons.

And in the end, a senior Justice Department lawyer, Erez Reuveni, who counseled bringing Mr. Abrego Garcia back to the United States, was fired for what Attorney General Pam Bondi said was a failure to “zealously advocate on behalf of the United States.”…

To this day, Mr. Abrego Garcia remains locked up in El Salvador despite court rulings demanding that the United States work toward securing his release. And he got there in the first place through what everyone agreed was a bureaucratic slip-up.

“This was an administrative error,” James Percival, a D.H.S. official appointed by Mr. Trump, wrote to his colleagues on March 30. “(Not that we should say publicly.)”

Tricia McLaughlin, a D.H.S. spokeswoman, said in a statement that Mr. Abrego Garcia’s deportation was part of “a highly sensitive counterterrorism operation with national security implications.”

“We invoked the state secrets privilege over many of the details — of course our officials discussed what should be divulged publicly,” she added. “This just proves they are responsible public servants putting the safety of the American people first. The leakers of these emails, on the other hand, clearly do not care about public safety.”…

According to the documents, administration officials realized quickly that the case had sweeping implications for Mr. Trump’s efforts to remove other immigrants from the United States and send them to a Salvadoran megaprison.

As Mr. Reuveni pointed out to the group, the case potentially “jeopardizes many far more important initiatives of the current administration.” If the government fought and lost, it could have legal repercussions, not least of which for the nearly 140 Venezuelans who were sent to the same facility under the authority of a rarely used wartime law, the Alien Enemies Act of 1798.

Ultimately, three courts — including the Supreme Court — pushed back against the White House, ordering Trump officials to at least take steps toward freeing Mr. Abrego Garcia. But Mr. Trump and some of his top aides have taken a defiant stance, insisting that Mr. Abrego Garcia will not be coming back to the United States.

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Update: <em>Kilmar Abrego Garcia: ‘Keep Him Where He Is’</em>Post + Comments (107)

Proof of Live – Ohio Meetup

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Proof of Life!

This was apparently so much fun that columbusqueen is already planning for next year’s meet-up, and I am told that you’ll all be invited.

Pics from Ohio Mom

Left to right: Ohio Mom, Ohio Dad and Manyakitty

 

From back wall to front: columbusqueen, Ohio Dad, Manyakitty, Mrs. Professor Bigfoot and Professor Bigfoot

 

Left to right: Goku, Ohio Farmer and Shaun/Temp Decloaked Lurker (all the way from Michigan!)

 

Left to right: Sab, two lurkers whose names I didn’t catch (it was noisy at Planks) so they will have to come out of hiding and identify themselves, and columbusqueen with a big wave

Camera shy: Suzanne (all the way from Pittsburgh!) and Mr. Sab

 

Starting with the red Indycar P1 hat: Ohio Farmer, lurker Shawn, lurker, Suzanne, sab, I think i see hair by the chalkboard next to sab – is that Josie? -, then columbusqueen, Ohio Mom, Ohio Dad, Manyakitty, Mrs. Professor, Professor Bigfoot, and then Goku at the head of the table.

Pic from manyakitty (taken by Mr. Sab?)

If someone wants to supply names for the bottom pic, in order, starting with the (surely not MAGA hat) red Indycar P1 hat I can add to the caption list!

Clues on names:

Take 1: Goku is at the head of the table. Ohio Farmer is wearing the red hat, Prof. Bigfoot is on the other side of Goku, Ohio Mom is next to Ohio Dad, I can’t remember nym for the woman next to Ohio Mom, or the man to her right. I think Josie is next to the man, Suzanne is next to her, then sab. The man next to Ohio Farmer is a lurker but I can’t remember his exact nym.

Take 2: Nice lurker 1 and 2, Suzanne, sab, temporarily decloaked lurker S., Ohio Farmer, Goku, Prof. B. and his lovely bride, Manyakitty, Ohio Dad, Ohio Mom, and columbusqueen!

Is this our biggest meetup ever?

Proof of Live – Ohio MeetupPost + Comments (76)

The PA Supreme Court Retention Election Matters!

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We took a  little  long break in the middle of our Civics Center fundraiser to accommodate my work and home remodeling schedules, but let’s jump back into this very worthy effort.  Can we do that?  I worry that we have left our partners at The Civics Center hanging after they found us a double-match for $15,000 of the $25,000 we are trying to raise.

Since it’s been so long, let’s dust off the cobwebs!

Exciting New Effort, With An Eye Toward the PA Supreme Court Retention Election In November

We are supporting the Civics Center in their effort to educate, motivate and register graduating (and mostly BIPOC) Seniors in urban Pittsburgh High Schools – one part of their nationwide effort to register the yutes in swing states.  PENNSYLVANIA IS A CRITICAL SWING STATE IN 2026 and 2028.  And more immediately, control of the Pennsylvania Supreme Court is at stake:

“State judicial elections typically garner little attention, but Pennsylvania’s 2025 state Supreme Court races are shaping up to be the next major political battleground. Three justices — Christine Donohue, Kevin Dougherty and David Wecht — are seeking to retain their seats on the state’s highest court, but Republican activists are looking to nix them from the court.

If two of the Democrats were to be unseated, Republicans would then gain a majority on the state’s highest court. Scott Presler, a Republican voter registration activist known for his grassroots efforts during the 2024 presidential election, is campaigning to get voters who have galvanized behind President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement to vote against retaining the three Democratic justices, citing their past rulings on pandemic “lockdowns” and voting laws.”

Pa. GOP seeks to gain control of state’s highest court, where final decisions are made on voting and abortion

Although some (mostly white) youths were Trump-curious in 2024, it looks like the kids are alright.

Recent polls show that Gen Z voters (age 18-29) are souring on the Trump Administration:

“Once seen as a wild card with surprising appeal among disillusioned young voters, President Donald Trump is now facing a sharp decline in support from Generation Z, according to new polling.

Newsweek analyzed the latest results from major pollsters since early March that included age-specific approval ratings and found that Trump’s standing among the youngest voters is currently at 37 percent approving, while 58 percent disapprove of his job performance.

That signals that Trump’s support among Generation Z voters has tailed off since the 2024 election, when 47 percent of voters aged 18-29 cast a ballot for him, up from 36 percent in 2020.”

THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY!  The Civic Center is smack in the middle of their on-campus High School voter education, registration and motivation drive – “Cap, Gown & Ballot” on several metropolitan area campuses in mostly swing states.  We’re helping them register and inspire students in nine urban Pittsburgh High Schools this month in advance of the Fall Pennsylvania Supreme Court retention race and next year’s midterms.

I can think of no more cost-effective way to register and engage our voters than reaching them on campus.  No canvassing, no door-knocking, no texts, no postcards – just direct access to potential voters.  Possibly our best bang for the voter registration buck.

Remember, the Civics Center has a double match for us

  • so every donation on BJ is a 4x match.
  • if there’s a Balloon Juice Angel, it becomes a 6x match.

Out-raise them.  Out-organize them.  Out-strategize them.


THEN we can OUT-VOTE them.

Update:  And we have an angel match from Wapiti!   $1,000 – up to $100 per person.

To be Angel-matched, please tell us about your donation in the comments or by email to me.

Thank you so much to our BJ Angel.

The PA Supreme Court Retention Election Matters!Post + Comments (36)

One Big Bad Bill and the ACA

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The bill that passed the House this morning (with all marginal seat Republicans voting for it) will lead to well over 10 million people directly losing health insurance coverage due to its provisions.  More will lose coverage due to inaction and there will be massive variation in coverage losses in Medicaid due to the degree of administrative competence and political give a damn at the state level. It is also a huge ACA cutter.

Before overnight amendments, coverage loss from marketplace policies accounted for about a quarter of coverage losses.

With ending silver loading, my guess is we get closer to a third?

And if you count the 4.2M losing coverage because of expiring enhanced subsidies, you start to approach halfsies.

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— Adrianna McIntyre (@adrianna.bsky.social) May 22, 2025 at 7:14 AM

The big new addition to the text last night for the ACA was the appropriation of funds to pay Cost Sharing Reduction subsidies which, since 2018 have been incorporated into Silver plan premiums. This would dramatically make the cheapest plans much more expensive for subsidized enrollees. Drake and Abraham illustrated this in 2019:

mean 2014‐2017 premium spreads allowed single enrollees at or below 149 percent of the FPL to purchase the lowest premium plan for zero dollars. After CSR cuts, mean premium spreads increased such that in 2018‐2019, enrollees at or below 208 percent of the FPL could purchase the lowest premium plan for zero dollars.

If signed into law, this will wreck the Texas ACA market as the state has aggressively silverloaded whic has dramatically increased the number of people covered (most of the gain, per my dissertation, is among folks with incomes over 200% FPL).

I will have more thoughts later (likely writing an academic commentary today fueled by a decade of knowledge, anger, and coffee).

One Big Bad Bill and the ACAPost + Comments (40)

House Bill Passes (Open Thread)

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According to WaPo, Trump’s big ugly bill narrowly passed in the House a little while ago and is now headed to the Senate. Here’s the summary from the linked article:

Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill, as the measure is formally known, extends trillions of dollars in tax cuts from his first term along with new campaign promises — including no taxes on tips and overtime wages — and hundreds of billions of dollars in new spending.

But the legislation, carries a hefty price tag. The latest projection from Congressional Budget Office, lawmakers’ nonpartisan bookkeeper, showed it will add $2.4 trillion over 10 years to the national debt, which already exceeds $36 trillion.

To offset the cost, the measure would slash spending on social safety net programs by more than $1 trillion over 10 years. Even then, the mammoth legislation could also force nearly $500 billion in cuts to Medicare over the next decade to keep the national deficit within legal limits, unless Congress later adjusts the limits. The legislation could strip Medicaid coverage from 8.7 million people and lead to 7.6 million more uninsured people over 10 years, CBO projected.

To sum up, billionaires like Trump, Musk, Zuckerberg, Bezos, etc., get to keep NOT paying their fair share of taxes, and ordinary citizens who depend on Medicare, Medicaid and other programs get screwed. Same as it ever was when Repubs hold power, only worse because Trump makes everything worse.

The retiree ceremonial head of state took a brief break from golf and crypto grifting yesterday to lean on House Repubs to get the bill passed. But elected Repubs interpreted Trump’s incoherent and uniformed comments on the bill in ways that confirm their priors.

In the meeting, the president scolded blue-state Republicans seeking a higher cap on state and local tax deductions (SALT), and he chided GOP hard-liners not to “f— around with Medicaid” benefits. A consensus, lawmakers said, appeared in the offing.

But lawmakers raced to put their own spin on Trump’s words. To some, the president’s comments about SALT meant refusing to raise the tax deduction, and to others, he meant accepting moderates’ demands.

To one group, his remarks about Medicaid meant searching for only egregious abuses, while another handful thought it meant finding “waste” within the program’s DNA.

A similar dynamic will probably take hold in the Senate, where a modified version of a bill that screws working people in favor of billionaires will almost certainly pass. At the policy level, right-wing “populism” is indistinguishable from the plutocratic agenda, as it was in Trump’s first term.

When millions lose healthcare, when rural hospitals close and nursing homes nationwide are shuttered, when seniors can’t access the benefits they’ve paid into for decades, etc., Trump will either ignore the situation or claim ignorance. Pretending not to know what’s happening under their own watch is a hallmark of the Trump cabinet, and it comes from the top.

I’ll contact my shitty Republican senators today to register my objections, but it feels entirely pointless. Because it is. The only thing we can do is ride this nightmare out and try to shift the balance of power through the next elections. Depressing!

***

I played hooky yesterday to attend the Tampa Bay Rays baseball game. They beat the Houston Astros 8 to 4, so the curse is lifted! (The curse was that the Rays lost every game my sister and I attended.)

Last year’s hurricanes shredded the dome at Tropicana Field in St. Pete, so this year, the team is playing at the New York Yankee’s spring training facility in Tampa, a much smaller and open air venue.

Lord, it was HOT! I’m not used to watching baseball outdoors since the Rays have played in a dome since their inception. I applied sunblock copiously and wore a hat, but I still got fried. Our plastic stadium chairs were so hot we had to pour water on them to avoid scorching our butts.

We entertained ourselves during lulls in the baseball action by watching unwary fans arrive late, sit down in their blazing hot seats and then leap up fanning their flaming hot tushes. We agreed that for the rest of the season, we’ll consider attending night games only.

Open thread!

House Bill Passes (Open Thread)Post + Comments (177)