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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

There is no compromise when it comes to body autonomy. You either have it or you do not.

Too often we confuse noise with substance. too often we confuse setbacks with defeat.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

“woke” is the new caravan.

The Giant Orange Man Baby is having a bad day.

Yeah, with this crowd one never knows.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Since when do we limit our critiques to things we could do better ourselves?

The snowflake in chief appeared visibly frustrated when questioned by a reporter about egg prices.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

This blog will pay for itself.

Wake up. Grow up. Get in the fight.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

Dear Washington Post, you are the darkness now.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Let there be snark.

When someone says they “love freedom”, rest assured they don’t mean yours.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires Republicans to act in good faith.

Rupert, come get your orange boy, you petrified old dinosaur turd.

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You are here: Home / Archives for Economics / C.R.E.A.M.

C.R.E.A.M.

Late Night ‘Beyond Parody’ Open Thread: Tucker Carlson Interviews Sam Bankman-Fried

by Anne Laurie|  March 8, 20253:18 am| 123 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Republican Politics

Looks like Sam Bankman-Fried, the crypto kid who made a fortune playing digital Monopoly with OPM, found the rich-guy survival handbook: "I've seen the light, & the light is Republican!"

People used to find Jesus in jail. Now, they find Trump. https://t.co/7HwfNoloBw

— Matt Lewis (@mattklewis) March 7, 2025

Effective altruism, they call it. Per the NYTimes, “Sam Bankman-Fried Ramps Up Effort for a Pardon From Trump” [gift link]:

Consulting with a lawyer who has ties to President Trump. Reaching out to Washington lobbyists. And sitting for a jailhouse interview with Tucker Carlson.

Sam Bankman-Fried, the disgraced cryptocurrency mogul who was once a top Democratic donor, has embarked on a long-shot campaign to secure a pardon from the Trump administration, six people with knowledge of the matter said.

The effort has been driven by a small group of Mr. Bankman-Fried’s supporters, including his parents, Joe Bankman and Barbara Fried, who are trying to help their son escape the 25-year prison sentence he received after he was convicted of fraud, conspiracy and money laundering in the collapse of his crypto exchange, FTX.

There is no indication that the Bankman-Frieds and their allies have reached Mr. Trump directly or discussed a potential pardon with his White House advisers.

But the push appears intended to capitalize on Mr. Trump’s transactional approach to clemency. The president has favored pardon seekers with connections to him — either personally or through lawyers and lobbyists — and claims of prosecutorial misconduct that echo his own grievances about the cases against him.

As part of the clemency effort, Mr. Bankman and Ms. Fried, who are Stanford University law professors and longtime active Democrats, are consulting with Kory Langhofer, an Arizona lawyer who worked for Mr. Trump’s 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. Politically connected businesspeople and Washington lobbyists have also received outreach from intermediaries who claim to be allies of Mr. Bankman-Fried, three people with knowledge of the situation said…

So far, the push does not appear to have gained traction, the people with knowledge of the matter said. The only indication that Mr. Bankman-Fried may be making headway came this week, when he got an audience with Mr. Carlson, who is close to Mr. Trump. On Thursday, the former Fox News host published a 43-minute interview with Mr. Bankman-Fried that was recorded via video call…

… Mr. Bankman-Fried does not fit the profile of someone Mr. Trump would instinctively pardon. The former crypto mogul not only donated to Democrats, but also voiced opposition to Mr. Trump. His conviction was celebrated by Elon Musk, the president’s close adviser.

Still, Mr. Trump has shown a willingness to grant clemency to people whose causes have resonated with him or who have access to his circle of Republican allies. During the election campaign, he was enthusiastically backed by crypto executives, who urged him to act on several policy priorities. Among them: a pardon for Ross Ulbricht, a cult hero in the crypto world who was serving a sentence of life in prison for running the online drug marketplace Silk Road. Mr. Trump issued the pardon within days of his inauguration…

You can buy Trump’s love — but you need a really big sum to do so.

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Even the paleoconservative Angry Baseball Head Guy understands this is a bad idea!

While Bankman-Fried is a fool, he's also a guy who got crazy rich by being able to spot a mark.

He looked at Tucker Carlson and saw a mark. https://t.co/QOMlpRW0St

— Dan McLaughlin (@baseballcrank) March 7, 2025

A confused Tucker asks SBF why his donations to Democrats didn’t keep him out of jail.

Because Democrats believe in the rule of law! He thinks everyone is like Trump.

Conspiracy theorists never consider maybe their worldview is wrong. They just start looking for more elaborate… pic.twitter.com/HrGoCnocKv

— Richard Hanania (@RichardHanania) March 7, 2025

[*Sad trombone coda*]

Tucker Carlson's interview with Sam Bankman-Fried was not approved by the US Bureau of Prisons, which placed him in solitary confinement after it was published, per NYT. pic.twitter.com/AtMtsYQCUb

— Jacob Shamsian ⚖️ (@JayShams) March 7, 2025

Late Night ‘Beyond Parody’ Open Thread: Tucker Carlson Interviews Sam Bankman-FriedPost + Comments (123)

Schadenfreude Open Thread: Who Are These Leopards, And Why Are They Eyeing My Face?

by Anne Laurie|  March 1, 20256:13 pm| 235 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, Trump Crime Cartel, Schadenfreude

Now this is some unambiguously funny stove touching

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— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock.bsky.social) February 28, 2025 at 11:11 AM

That’s from Ben Smith’s execrably right-wing Semafor — “American business leaders are turning on Trump — fast”:

… CEO optimism is fading as Trump pushes ahead with trade restrictions, while business-friendly deregulation has yet to materialize. US consumer confidence in January recorded its biggest one-month decline since November 2023. The US stock market, long Trump’s preferred proxy for economic might, is lower than it was before his inauguration, trailing major indexes in Europe, China, Mexico, and Canada — all targets of the president’s planned tariffs…

Schadenfreude Open Thread: <em>Who Are These Leopards, And Why Are They Eyeing My Face?</em>

… The business community is having its own leopard-eating-faces moment. The stock market has not been the curb on Trump’s policy agenda that many hoped it would be, and so far they are getting a lot of the bad chaos they feared with little of the good chaos they wanted…

There’s a type of guy who should have known better but supported Trump entirely in hopes of weaker antitrust enforcement and seeing them immediately owned brings a smile to my face

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— James Medlock (@jdcmedlock.bsky.social) February 28, 2025 at 11:14 AM

that would be Ken "$100 million to Republicans in 2024" Griffin

— large language marge (@mcdonalds.help) February 28, 2025 at 11:17 AM

If only the Great Men stewarding our economy had been able to accomplish the incredible feat of reading what their preferred candidate said he would do & believing that he would do it

— Various Threnodies (@various-threnodies.bsky.social) February 28, 2025 at 11:13 AM

Or looked at a single business decision he'd made in his decades as a swindler who can't run a casino

— Erica Henderson (@ericafails.bsky.social) February 28, 2025 at 11:14 AM

Schadenfreude Open Thread: <em>Who Are These Leopards, And Why Are They Eyeing My Face?</em>Post + Comments (235)

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Michigan, Represent!

by Anne Laurie|  February 27, 20259:40 am| 65 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Democratic Response to Trump 2.0, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Elon Musk

U.S. Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) goes after DOGE and OMB Secretary nominee Dan Bishop after he struggles to answer whether President Donald Trump would cut Social Security: "I don't think any American should trust that these programs are safe if you can do anything you want." pic.twitter.com/GNKjlDhCKM

— Heartland Signal (@HeartlandSignal) February 25, 2025

Placemarker, because WaterGirl has a serious constructive post in the wings.

Overnight, I pulled together a *bunch* of skeets / tweets on the Repubs’ growing terror at how little the WH Occupants’ proposed budget is going to please their constituents… and a corresponding batch from our Democrats, now in Array. Some of them will probably be outdated by the time most of you see this, anyways, so: Keep the positive thoughts!

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Michigan, Represent!Post + Comments (65)

Economic Blackout Tomorrow

by Betty Cracker|  February 27, 20257:39 am| 181 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

I’m not buying jack-shit tomorrow, not even a Tootsie Roll. Here’s why: (USA Today)

Consumers are planning a one-day economic blackout on Feb. 28. Here’s what to know.

Consumers are preparing for a 24-hour economic blackout on Friday, one of several boycotts planned by groups of consumers or activists to protest what they call corporate greed, companies that have rolled back their diversity, equity and inclusion efforts and President Donald Trump’s efforts to eliminate federal DEI programs since taking office.

On Friday, those groups are encouraging consumers to not spend any money anywhere for one day. If they have spend, they are encouraged to buy from a local business.

I co-sign all the reasons given above and would add this: A right-wing kleptocracy is devouring the federal government like an invasive South Florida python swallowing a Key deer. I wish to register my displeasure with this state of affairs.

Will enough people shut their wallets to gain the oligarchs’ attention? Oh, probably not.

This is America, and we don’t do effective boycotts lately unless they involve a whiny, obscenely wealthy old man-baby getting triggered by an Instagram account he doesn’t follow and riddling a case of Bud Light with bullets from an AR-15.

But goddamn it, we’ve got to DO SOMETHING besides shouting DO SOMETHING at our elected officials.

I admire the moxie of the citizens in other countries who’ve used general strikes to topple autocratic governments and force reconsideration of austerity measures, etc. God knows we could use some of that spirit here since American oligarchs and their elected allies are ramming through a Project 2025 austerity agenda that nobody voted for and the enfeebled ceremonial president explicitly disavowed during the campaign.

However, I suspect Americans are too spoiled and complacent to engage in such an action, at least not yet.

Open thread.

PS: Literally ripped from the headlines:

Shot of the headline of a Washington Post opinion piece by dishonest hack Marc Thiessen. Original headline reads "Trump just dealt Russia a devastating blow." The word "job" has been added in red at the end.

It pissed me off when I read yesterday that the sleazy, 3/4-life-crisis oligarch who runs the Post decreed the opinions page will henceforth focus on “personal liberties and free markets.” But they’ve platformed fascism apologists like Thiessen for decades, so excavation equipment will be required to sink lower anyway. Fuck that rag — I got no more subscriptions to cancel.

Economic Blackout TomorrowPost + Comments (181)

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Barely A Month Into the Season, and He’s Losing the Target Demographic

by Anne Laurie|  February 26, 20258:44 am| 121 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Trump Crime Cartel

There were a lot of hilarious signs at today’s Philly protest (because Philly has A+ protest sign game), but this was my favorite from an “I want that as a tattoo” perspective.

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— Leonore (Lee) Carpenter (@leecarpenter.bsky.social) February 17, 2025 at 8:39 PM

“Trump has spent more personal time trying to negotiate a truce to professional golf’s civil war — including a three-hour meeting in the Oval Office on Thursday that included Tiger Woods — than he has dedicated to trying to hammer out a deal to keep the government funded.” (Paul Kane is good).
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— Jonathan Bernstein (@jonathanbernstein.bsky.social) February 23, 2025 at 2:47 PM


Per the Washington Post, “Trump, schmoozing Saudis, plays two roles: President and mogul” [gift link]

In back-to-back events last week, President Donald Trump held court with Saudi government officials and investors who do business with his family’s firms.

On Wednesday, he made a special trip to Miami to appear at a beachfront conference hosted by Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, which has invested $2 billion in a business run by the president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and is the main backer of LIV Golf, the upstart golf league that has held five tournaments at Trump’s courses since it launched in 2022, with a sixth scheduled for April at Trump National Doral in Miami. Trump has not disclosed his profits from the events. Kushner, Trump’s “first buddy” Elon Musk and other family business associates of Trump and his Middle East envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, also attended.

Less than 24 hours later, Trump hosted Yasir al-Rumayyan — who runs the Saudi fund and oversees LIV Golf — for a meeting at the White House. On the agenda: a potential reunification of the golf world.

The meetings demonstrated how Trump has blended the roles of president and business mogul. But “it’s hard to see how any of those meetings have anything to do with our interests as American taxpayers,” said Don Fox, former general counsel for the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.

If Trump could help engineer a PGA-LIV deal, he might be seen as a hero to the sport of golf — and more business in turn would flow to his properties, golf experts say.

While it’s not clear how much revenue any single tournament generates for Trump’s golf properties, courses that stage professional tournaments often see profits of six figures or more for higher-profile events — along with the associated fame, prestige and increased demand for tee times year-round….

Trump’s involvement in the potential LIV-PGA deal is “disturbing” because “he has been collecting millions of dollars from LIV Golf at various of his golf properties” and is essentially the Saudi league’s “business partner,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Maryland), who probed the Trump family’s business ties to foreign powers while serving as the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee.

“One doesn’t know if he is acting as president of the United States or simply as a businessman, in trying to promote this merger,” Raskin said.

The White House referred The Washington Post to the Trump Organization, which is run by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, for comment about steps the president is taking to minimize conflicts in these matters. The Trump Organization and Witkoff’s company did not respond to requests for comment. The Saudi government and the Saudi Public Investment Fund declined interview requests. Kushner declined an interview request…

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'Anxiety is showing up in the markets.' Wall Street getting antsy about Trump's economy. 👀👀🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬🤬 pic.twitter.com/m4CQmIK3nW

— ✙ Dymtrus WhatSpecialOperationDoing? ✙ (@eightynines) February 25, 2025

Even the Very Serious NYTimes… “Wall Street Is Getting Antsy With Trump”: [gift link]

President Trump’s keynote this week at a Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s conference in Miami Beach might have seemed like another jubilant pep rally attended by adoring fans and key lieutenants.

Elon Musk sat in the front under a vast rotunda, not far from the real estate billionaire Steve Witkoff, now a White House special envoy to the Middle East, and Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law. All received shout-outs from Mr. Trump, and frequently laughed at the president’s early jokes during his 90-minute talk.

But in the venue’s packed lobby, which had been repurposed as an overflow room with television screens set up for roughly 150 finance types, the mood was a bit antsy…

These portfolio managers and financial consultants, many in dark suits, had waited for about three hours to secure a coveted seat in the Faena Forum, a pearly white hotel and conference center co-owned by a major Trump donor.

That this crowd waited just to see Mr. Trump on a closed-circuit screen on Wednesday was an indication of their collective enthusiasm for, or at least acute interest in, what Mr. Trump would say in his first second-term, in-person address to the international business set, a group that had high hopes for his return to office.

They applauded at first, as Mr. Trump declared what many longed to hear: that the “United States is back and open for business,” that he was ending burdensome regulations and that a golden era for cryptocurrencies had begun.

But rather than continue to address economic issues as many in attendance had expected, Mr. Trump devoted most of his remarks to recapping his electoral win, criticizing the president of Ukraine and reading off a list of supposed savings from the Department of Government Efficiency, some of which were earlier debunked. He also briefly mentioned tariffs and deregulation, only the latter of which received applause.

Within 20 minutes, the overflow room was talking over the president, and those present were asking if it was rude to leave. Plenty did; by the time Mr. Trump had finished, the room was half empty. Those who stuck around were treated to the view of Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary during Mr. Trump’s first term, making a silent beeline from the main auditorium as soon the president wrapped up his remarks. (A spokesman for Mr. Mnuchin said he had been due at a previously scheduled meeting.)

The Miami area should have been a fitting setting for Mr. Trump to reintroduce himself to the world of finance. Miami has tried to remake itself as the Wall Street of the south, a haven for crypto firms and hedge funds, with lower taxes and nicer weather.

Yet the city’s most prominent financial name, Kenneth Griffin, skipped Mr. Trump’s speech…

There were warmer feelings a few feet from the Faena pool, where Alex Konanykhin, head of the cryptocurrency firm Unicoin, lounged with his custom blazer hanging off a chair.

Mr. Konanykhin recently returned to the United States after spending a few years in self-described “business exile in Switzerland,” as the Securities and Exchange Commission investigated Unicoin for fraud.

Mr. Konanykhin said he was relieved because of his belief that his company’s crypto actions were not dissimilar to the Trump family’s $Trump coin…


Hey, we’re all grifters together, aren’t we?…

It’s fine to admit the libs were right about him and Russia. It’s a new day, we should all work together. https://t.co/E0PoWgeFv1

— Egg Price Sufferer (@agraybee) February 26, 2025

Wednesday Morning Open Thread: Barely A Month Into the Season, and He’s Losing the Target DemographicPost + Comments (121)

Tuesday Afternoon Open Thread: DOGE, ‘Economical’ Only with the Truth

by Anne Laurie|  February 25, 20254:42 pm| 191 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., DOGESHIT, Grifters Gonna Grift, Elon Musk

AP: “Nearly 40% of the federal contracts Trump’s administration claims to have canceled as part of its signature cost-cutting program aren’t expected to save the government any money, the administration’s own data shows.” https://t.co/teq8RoEUsN pic.twitter.com/aNyxBQAsZG

— The Tennessee Holler (@TheTNHoller) February 25, 2025

… Data published on DOGE’s “Wall of Receipts” shows that more than one-third of the contract cancellations, 794 in all, are expected to yield no savings.

That’s usually because the total value of the contracts has already been fully obligated, which means the government has a legal requirement to spend the funds for the goods or services it purchased and in many cases has already done so.

“It’s like confiscating used ammunition after it’s been shot when there’s nothing left in it. It doesn’t accomplish any policy objective,” said Charles Tiefer, a retired University of Baltimore law professor and expert on government contracting law. “Their terminating so many contracts pointlessly obviously doesn’t accomplish anything for saving money.”…

Last week, DOGE posted an online “wall of receipts,” celebrating how much it had saved by canceling federal contracts. Now it has deleted all of the 5 biggest “savings” on that original list, after NYT and other outlets pointed out errors. www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/u…

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— Jenna Fowler (@jennafowler.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM

Before the gift link expires:

… The last of the original top five disappeared from the site in the early hours of Tuesday, even as the group claimed in its latest update that its savings to date had increased to $65 billion. The website offered no explanation for why it removed some items or how it arrived at the higher total. Neither the U.S. DOGE Service nor the White House responded to questions Tuesday morning.

The “wall of receipts” is the only public ledger the organization has produced to document its work. The scale of that ledger’s errors — and the misunderstandings and poor quality control that seemed to underlie them — has raised questions about the effort’s broader work, which has led to mass firings and cutbacks across the federal government.

These were the original five largest savings on its list:

– An $8 billion cut at Immigration and Customs Enforcement. The actual contract in question was worth $8 million. The mistake seemed to stem from an earlier, erroneous entry in a federal contracting database. But contracting experts said that the service should have known better: ICE’s entire budget is about $8 billion, making it implausible that one contract could be so large. The U.S. DOGE Service adjusted the figure on the site after The Times wrote about it, and said in a post on Mr. Musk’s X platform that it had “always used the correct $8M in its calculations.”

– Three $655 million cuts at the U.S. Agency for International Development. This was actually a single cut that was erroneously counted three times, as first reported by CBS News. That mistake also seemed to reflect a misunderstanding of the way government contracts work; they sometimes have “ceiling values” far in excess of what will be spent. Experts said this cancellation was unlikely to produce anything close to $655 million in savings even once. Now, the site lists a much smaller savings for these three cancellations: $18 million in total.

– A $232 million cut at the Social Security Administration. Here, Mr. Musk’s organization appeared to have mistakenly believed that the agency had canceled a huge information technology contract with the defense contracting giant Leidos. Instead, as reported by The Intercept, it had canceled only a tiny piece of it: a $560,000 project to let users mark their gender as “X.” The DOGE site now shows that small cut instead.

Some of the new canceled contracts added this week appear to make some of the same types of errors.

The largest savings on the latest version of its list is a $1.9 billion cut at the Treasury Department. But The Times reported last week that this contract was canceled last fall, when Joseph R. Biden Jr. was president — and when DOGE did not yet exist.

Accidental truths: The Trump/Musk Crime Syndicate is bankrupting the US government and driving down its value and reputation the way Trump bankrupted casinos and Musk blew $44 bn on Twitter so he could destroy 80% of its value.

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— Ragnarok Lobster (@eclecticbrotha1.bsky.social) February 25, 2025 at 1:28 PM

Here’s a guy who sincerely hopes you’ll fall for the razzle-dazzle — just look at his smarmy little grin!

Here comes the phony numbers to sell the deal. The illusory smoke and mirrors of waste, fraud, abuse, and future tariffs. It’s 1981 and David Stockman redux.

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— Ron Filipkowski (@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 10:23 PM

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Don’t know if the coming crash(es) will be fatal to Pastor Johnson, since we don’t know who’s running him, but I sincerely hope this is true:

I predict that the person who will appear most in Democratic ads across the country in federal, state and local races in the 2026 midterm elections will be Elon Musk, and he is going to elect a lot of Democrats and cost many Republican incumbents their seats.

— Ron Filipkowski (@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 2:38 PM

This would be sad to watch if it wasn’t so damaging to our democracy.

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— Keith Edwards (@keithedwards.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 8:59 PM

Notice how he says YOUR taxes and not OUR taxes.

— Mike (@miked5287.bsky.social) February 24, 2025 at 9:03 PM

To be fair this reads like a while Lotta whining that everyone at once told him to fuck all the way off and he's completely unused to that.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) February 23, 2025 at 10:51 AM

Tuesday Afternoon Open Thread: DOGE, ‘Economical’ Only with the TruthPost + Comments (191)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Battling the Repubs’ Dishonest ‘Budgeting’

by Anne Laurie|  February 25, 20256:02 am| 252 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!

Heading back to DC to oppose the Republican budget scheme that will slash and burn Medicaid benefits.

There are 215 Democrats in the House.

We only need three Republicans to do the right thing and Medicaid will be saved.

— Hakeem Jeffries (@RepJeffries) February 24, 2025

Crockett: Right now they have a Trump trifecta. So when and if the government shuts down, it is going to be on Trump and his minions. It is not going to be on us as Democrats because we weren't elected to gut social security, to gut medicaid and medicare, to gut USAID, to gut any… pic.twitter.com/h4batj2fNL

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 24, 2025

????ALERT????: If you want Democrats to hold the line on Musk's illegal funding/firing spree, **RIGHT NOW** is time to make your voice heard. This update below is about just that. Not clear how hard a line Dems are taking. https://t.co/1j3esfFl8S

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) February 25, 2025

RED ALERT: Now Is the Moment, Folks https://t.co/85MsTDoxMf via @TPM

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) February 25, 2025

… At present Republicans are on course to shut down the government on March 14th. Essentially the Freedom Caucus is holding them hostage demanding not the draconian budget cuts favored by most of the GOP caucus but draconian-plus cuts, the kind that they fear will get their members in swing districts defeated. So they’re coming to Democrats, hat in hand, asking for help. I’ve explained in probably a dozen posts over the last month that this is the line not just on policy and anti-constitutional actions but also a key moment in the drama of performative power between President Trump and the opposition that will have repercussions and reverberations for months and perhaps years to come. There are already plenty of signs the public is turning against Musk’s wilding spree of criminal conduct through the federal government. To put it in the vulgar and rapacious terms that are the only ones that do it justice, Donald Trump and Elon Musk have spent the last month slapping around like bitches the Constitution, federal workers, the Democrats and really the sovereignty of the American people. Democrats have this moment to decide whether they’ll not only arrest the damage but change the tone through the idiom of power.

Well, now we appear to be at the crunch moment…

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Republicans are coming to the Democrats hat in hand: We’re about to shut down the government. Help us prevent our extremists from doing that. Dems have to name their price. That’s presumably or should be no help until the criminal conduct stops. But according to Politico the Republicans are saying something like, ‘Be reasonable. Trump will never agree to that.’

Others may differ but I think the only reasonable position is “no help with your problem unless and until the criminal conduct stops.” And any deal needs to be enforceable…

 
Ed Kilgore, at NYMag — “Why the Government Will Probably Shut Down in March”:

… First, anything other than a simple extension of current spending levels across the board takes a lot of time and effort. Despite their apparent powerlessness, Democrats can block appropriations measures with a Senate filibuster, as they could in 2018 when Republicans had a governing trifecta as well. So they have to be cut in on any deal. And with just over three weeks until the money runs out, there have been virtually no real negotiations. There’s no “top-line” spending deal in sight dictating total appropriations, much less the deals over individual items. There’s also a total lack of agreement within the GOP caucuses, never mind across the aisle, as to whether the goal remains passage of the 12 individual appropriations measures covering all federal operations (as most conservatives prefer, even though it hasn’t happened since 1996), or some big fat “omnibus” bill combining appropriations, or yet another “continuing resolution” that just extends current spending levels until the end of the fiscal year in September. There’s obviously a lot going on in Washington right now, but enacting appropriations is one of the very few things Elon Musk or Russell Vought can’t do for Trump — yet time will soon run short.

Second, the two parties are perhaps farther apart than ever in their ideas about appropriate spending levels for this or that government function. Trump didn’t campaign on an extreme austerity budget, but that’s what he seems to be insisting upon in office, and all the saber-rattling from both DOGE and the Office of Management and Budget suggests he’s not going to be willing to wait for the next fiscal year to begin very deep cuts in programs and personnel of which he does not approve. Signing a same-old-same-old bipartisan spending measure would conflict pretty dramatically from his overall posture at the moment.

But the third and most important reason a shutdown might happen this time involves Democrats. Typically, as the “party of government,” Democrats can be counted on to supply whatever votes are needed to keep the federal government open. But now they are understandably horrified by the ever-proliferating power grabs undertaken so quickly by Trump and his agents — and by what they are doing with that power. Yes, they may be able to count on the federal courts to rein in DOGE or OMB or individual agency heads who are running wild, but (a) that will take time, (b) the outcome isn’t certain with a Trump-friendly Supreme Court at the end of every strand of litigation, and (c) passively watching the whole crazy show doesn’t reflect very well on congressional Democrats themselves, whose constituents are frantic for them to do something.

Democrats are already by definition shut out of the long-term budget decisions congressional Republicans are pursuing via budget-reconciliation legislation (which will also now, it appears, include the debt limit increase that once looked like a source of Democratic leverage). So getting a lot of concessions from Republicans in March is a no-brainer. Such concessions might go far beyond spending levels into subjects like reasserting Congress’s control of appropriations or reining in DOGE. The odds of those dynamics playing out to a successful conclusion without at least some lapse in appropriations seem low…

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Battling the Repubs’ Dishonest ‘Budgeting’Post + Comments (252)

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