Just a brief update on what is going on.
First, the Israelis have mobilized 300,000 reservists.
💥52 hours in, IDF says it is now in control of all Israeli territory and communities but terrorists may still be circulating. IDF has drafted 300,000 reserve soldiers in 48 hours, the largest wartime called up ever:
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
That’s a lot of personnel, but remember a lot of those reservists will be tail, not tooth. They’ll be working logistics, maneuver support, medical, all the things that have to be done so the combat arms folks can actually be effective. That said, the majority of Israel’s premier special operations unit – the Sayeret Matkal – are reservists. About 200 of them threatened to resign if Bibi pushed his reforms through in late July/early August. I expect they’re all back now.
Before the jump I want to focus on one self mobilized retiree: Major General Yair Golan.
If you don't live in Israel or consume Israeli media, you don't know who Yair Golan is. He is a 61-year-old retired Major General in the Israel army and a former parliament MP. Spend a minute to read this story.
Yesterday, when IDF and the police were in complete chaos, Golan… pic.twitter.com/lGEfCKVZGF
— Gadi Shamia (@gadishamia) October 9, 2023
If you don’t live in Israel or consume Israeli media, you don’t know who Yair Golan is. He is a 61-year-old retired Major General in the Israel army and a former parliament MP. Spend a minute to read this story.
Yesterday, when IDF and the police were in complete chaos, Golan put on his old uniform, took his weapon, and drove into the war zone multiple times to rescue civilians under fire. He rescued two young adults hiding under a bush after 260 of their friends were murdered at an outdoor party. He answered a call from a journalist that his son was hiding under fire and simply said, “Give me his location, and I will bring him back home.” An hour later, the son called his father from Golan’s car.
Golan collected a small crew and went in and out of the war zone, rescuing dozens of people while exchanging fire with Hamas terrorists. He is 61, he could have stayed home, but he chose to risk his life for people he does not know.
Golan is one of the strongest voices from the Israeli left and was constantly attacked by the right wing in Israel. But when the time came, he was first fighting the barbaric attack. The same brain wiring that supports peace, is often the same wiring that drives people to do the right thing.
A true hero.
Golan has been consistently vilified by Bibi, his supporters, and everyone else on the far right in Israeli politics for well over a decade. All because he has a different vision for Israel politics, society, relations with the Palestinians, and has opposed Bibi and his even more extreme coalition partners. Every insult you can imagine has been sent his way from being an internal fifth columnist to selling out and betraying Israelis and Jews. Golan, unlike Bibi, unlike the convicted terrorist Ben Gvir, unlike the Kahane protege Smotrich ran to the sounds of gunfire to help all while his detractors continue to try to cover their self exposed tuchases and shift the blame on to Israelis like Golan.
The frantic tweets of Nir Gontarz, the journalist whose son Golan rescued after the jump.
Tweets, as this wasn’t threaded, first followed by a machine translation:
הבן שלי תחת אש בדרום. נסעתי לשם ב-180 קמש ובאורות אדומים. נחסמתי לגמרי עי הצבא והמשטרה 15 קמ ממנו. מוקד 100 קרס. שוטרים וצבא במחסומים לא מוכנים להקשיב. אין למי להעביר את המיקום שלו pic.twitter.com/ss0x1Fdv6S
— Nir Gontarz (@gontarzn) October 7, 2023
הבן שלי מוקף כרגע חוליות דוברות ערבית וירי. אין עם מי לדבר בצבא ובמשטרה https://t.co/i4lErIXxTi
— Nir Gontarz (@gontarzn) October 7, 2023
אין צבא ואין משטרה. אני מתחנן למי מכוחות הבטחון; תנו לי נשק, הוא מוקף מחבלים. תנו לי להוציא אותן לבד https://t.co/nAeN1kkZnI
— Nir Gontarz (@gontarzn) October 7, 2023
נותק הקשר עם אמיר. אני מתחנן לצבא שיתנו לי נשק ארוך, ומצדי יחיילו אותי ליום מילואים. אם אתם מכירים מישהו שם – תעזרו לי. הסתכלתי במפות. אני יכול לחלץ אותו https://t.co/CQ3AwkxH5z
— Nir Gontarz (@gontarzn) October 7, 2023
חודש הקשר לרגע. הם רואים רק את הטנדרים של המחבלים. שום כח ישראלי לא בסביבה שלהם ולא הגיע אליהם, למרות שהנ"צ הועבר לכל מי שאפשר. צהל סופית מסרב לחייל אותי ולתת לי נשק. https://t.co/YLluguy0qP
— Nir Gontarz (@gontarzn) October 7, 2023
לפני כ-35 צלצלתי ל@YairGolan1 ובקשתי עזרה (אין לנו הכרות מוקדמת). ביקש מיקום ואמר: אני הולך להביא לך אותו.
עכשיו הם כבר באוטו של יאיר, בדרך החוצה. וואו.
לבי עם כל הנצורים ובני משפחתם https://t.co/FBCJrfOMnD
— Nir Gontarz (@gontarzn) October 7, 2023
דיווח מהשטח: יאיר גולן נכנס ויוצא מהשטח כבר כמה שעות, ומחלץ עוד ועוד צעירים מתוכו. https://t.co/mPJgBZhxoF
— Nir Gontarz (@gontarzn) October 7, 2023
My son is under fire in the south. I drove there at 180 Kamesh and red lights. I was completely blocked by the army and the police 15 km from it. Moked 100 Keres. Police and army at the checkpoints are not ready to listen. There is no one to transfer their location to
My son is currently surrounded by Arabic speaking squads and shooting. There is no one to talk to in the army and the police
There is no army and no police. I am begging someone from the security forces; Give me a weapon, he’s surrounded by terrorists. Let me take them out alone
Contact with Amir was cut off. I am begging the army to give me a long weapon, and for my part they will conscript me for a reserve day. If you know someone there – help me. I looked at the maps. I can rescue him
The month of the relationship for a moment. They only see the vans of the terrorists. No Israeli force is in their vicinity and has not reached them, even though the NAT has been passed on to everyone possible. The IDF finally refuses to recruit me and give me weapons.
About 35 years ago I called @YairGolan1 and asked for help (we have no prior acquaintance). He asked for a location and said: I’m going to bring it to you. Now they are already in Yair’s car, on the way out. wow My heart goes out to all the besieged and their families
Report from the field: Yair Golan has been entering and leaving the field for several hours, extracting more and more young people from it.
Second, Israel has sealed off Gaza.
💥Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, addressing the Southern Command: "I have ordered a full siege over the Gaza Strip. No electricity, no food, no fuel. We are fighting savages and we will act accordingly."
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
Gaza is basically an extended municipality turned into a prison. Think what would happen if you took the greater San Diego area, built a wall around the sides that are landlocked and then set up a permanent naval interdiction on the Pacific side. And then put the most ruthless and violent people in charge. Most of whom don’t actually live within Gaza as they live and operate out of Doha, Istanbul, Cairo, and other cities in the region. Now imagine what happens when you turn off the power and prevent any food, water, fuel, medical supplies, etc in. Getting the prisoners that Hamas has taken back to Gaza out, whether they’re Israelis or Israeli-American dual nationals, or Israeli and any other nationality dual nationals, is going to require scalpel like efficiency. Bibi and his coalition partners are going to go with the sledgehammer.
As I just wrote:
💥The Israeli government has decided that in the absence of specific information about specific sites in which Israeli hostages are being held, it will 𝐧𝐨𝐭 take the hostages into account in its planning of the miliutary operation in Gaza. Prediction: this will cause uproar.
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
It is important to remember that Israel does NOT have a professional non-commissioned officer (NCO) corps like the US does. As a result, you have junior officers largely left without mentoring from more experience senior enlisted advisors. This is what has led to the war crimes allegations against young, Israeli company commanders in past operations in Gaza. The lack of a professional NCO corps will have a major impact on the upcoming operations.
Hamas’s response:
Hamas' armed wing said on Monday it will begin executing an Israeli civilian captive in return for any new Israeli bombing of civilian houses without pre-warning.
https://t.co/34EgHYHDku— Israel Hayom English (@IsraelHayomEng) October 9, 2023
Mansour Abbas, however, is a much wiser and more practical man than Bibi:
💥Mansour Abbas, Israeli legislator whose party represents Islamic Brotherhood calls "on leaders of Palestinian factions in Gaza to release the captives in your hands. Muslim values command us not to imprison women, children & elderly. Request this humanitarian act immediately"
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
https://t.co/TkI3QuOVZ3 pic.twitter.com/8OPiiINVoe
— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) October 9, 2023
Barak Ravid is reporting that Bibi told President Biden this morning that Israel has to go into Gaza.
Scoop: Netanyahu tells Biden "we have to go" into Gaza. My story on @axios https://t.co/5OJoWjfiFk
— Barak Ravid (@BarakRavid) October 9, 2023
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told President Biden on Sunday that Israel does not have any choice but to unleash a ground operation in Gaza. “We have to go in,” the Israeli leader said, according to three Israeli and U.S. sources briefed on the call.
Why it matters: Netanyahu’s messagesignals what his country’s response to Hamas’ attack will look like in the days and weeks ahead in what the Israeli prime minister has said will be a “long and difficult war.”
Driving the news: The Israeli military announced on Monday it has mobilized 300,000 reserve soldiers — the largest number of reservists called to duty in decades — as part of preparations for a possible ground offensive in Gaza.
Behind the scenes: During his call with Netanyahu, Biden raised the issue of Israeli hostages in Gaza, according to the three sources.
- “We have to go in. We can’t negotiate now,” Netanyahu said.
- The White House and the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office declined to comment.
- Netanyahu told Biden that Israel had no other choice but to respond with force because a country can’t show weakness in the Middle East.
- “We need to restore deterrence,” Netanyahu told Biden, according to the three sources.
- Biden did not try to press Netanyahu or convince him not to go through with a ground operation.
More at the link!
Third, the head of Egyptian intelligence is widely and publicly telling everyone that he personally warned Bibi ten days before the attacks!
💥#Breaking: Egypt's Intelligence Minister Netanyahu 10 days before the war & warned "Something terrible will happen from Gaza." @SmadarPeri quotes source: Jerusalem "dismissed our warnings" because they were focused on tensions in the West Bank. https://t.co/OojXb0LZEG
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
Abbas Kamel, powerful head of Egyptian intel, called @netanyahu 10 days before attack, says @ynetnews. Kamel warned that "something unusual, a terrible operation" was about to take place. Kamel was aghast at Netanyahu's passivity.@IsraeliPM denies report, says its a lie.
— Lazar Berman (@Lazar_Berman) October 9, 2023
בכיר במודיעין המצרי אומר ל-AP כי מצרים הזהירה שוב ושוב את הישראלים על "משהו גדול", בהקשר העזתי. לדבריו, גורמים ישראליים התמקדו במצב באיו"ש והמעיטו באיום מעזה: "הזהרנו אותם מהתפוצצות המצב ושזה קרוב מאוד וזה יהיה משהו גדול. אבל הם זלזלו באזהרות האלה".
— roi kais • روعي كايس • רועי קייס (@kaisos1987) October 9, 2023
A senior Egyptian intelligence official tells AP that Egypt has repeatedly warned the Israelis of “something big”, in the context of Gaza. According to him, Israeli officials focused on the situation in IOS and downplayed the threat from Gaza: “We warned them about the explosion of the situation and that it was very close and it would be something big. But they disregarded these warnings.”
💥The Egyptians appear to to be briefing Israeli journalists pretty widely about what they believe is a massive Israeli failure.
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
Egypt is going to work very, very hard to make sure Israel’s intelligence and security failures don’t get on them. Especially if it can be used to weaken Bibi.
Bibi’s response:
💥This is a Netanyahu statement https://t.co/nZ3fWJBndU
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
Fourth, the Israeli government appears to be covering up the extent of the damage caused by Hamas’s attacks into southern Israel.
💥The tally of Israeli dead still stands at 700, a figure published yesterday, but a senior Israeli official tells @ReshetBet "the real numbers are far higher, inconceiveably."
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
I’m not surprised by this at all. Israel has a military censor and given what we now know, that Bibi’s government redeployed somewhere between 1/2 and 2/3rds of the IDF from the south to the West Bank to protect his coalition partner’s base in the settlements and their priorities and that Bibi ignored repeated warnings from Israelis and others that Hamas was planning something, all efforts will be made to cover Bibi’s tuchas.
Which is why they’re afraid to show their faces:
💥From late last night: "A senior doctor at a hospital full of wounded says: 'You know what is very interesting? Usually after an event with this many casualties, all kinds of politicians come to 'visit the wounded." No one has bothered to come today.'" https://t.co/1SAyehAmVy
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
Fifth, apparently the Israeli government has decided to forego a professional, planned strategic communications response:
💥Shit that happens when you've decided you'll be 𝒋𝒖𝒔𝒕 𝒇𝒊𝒏𝒆 with no professional comms team. pic.twitter.com/5qS4sqZvSi
— Noga Tarnopolsky נגה טרנופולסקי نوغا ترنوبولسكي💙 (@NTarnopolsky) October 9, 2023
Sixth, both The Arab News and Reuters have significant, detailed reporting about how Israel’s security and intelligence failure occurred and how Hamas planned and executed this operation without tipping off the Israelis.
From The Arab News: (emphasis mine)
JERUSALEM: The devastating failure of the Israeli intelligence services to predict the deadly Hamas incursion stemmed from a total misunderstanding of the militant group, experts have said.
Israel was taken by complete surprise early on Saturday morning as Hamas fired thousands of rockets from the Gaza Strip at the country, while more than a thousand fighters gunned down hundreds of people and took at least 100 hostages.
Israeli soldiers embarked on fierce battles with the militants holed up in southern communities, as the air force began striking strategic targets in Gaza.
By Monday morning, official estimates put the number of Israeli civilians and soldiers killed at over 700, a huge toll for a country of less than 10 million people.
“It’s a huge failure of the intelligence system and the military apparatus in the south,” said retired military general Yaakov Amidror, who served as Israel’s national security adviser in 2011-2013.
But beyond the operational failure of Israel’s vaunted intelligence services to detect the well-organized attack and the army’s inability to block it, Israel’s broader take on Hamas was entirely flawed, Amidror said.
“We made a huge mistake, including me, in believing a terror organization can change its DNA,” he told journalists.
“We heard from our friends around the world that they’re behaving more responsibly, and we believed it in our stupidity,” said Amidror, currently a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security.
In an attempt to win some peace, Israel had recently increased work and trade permits for Gazans, with about 18,500 laborers providing significant income to the densely-populated coastal enclave where around half of the population is unemployed.
Israel believed that economic incentives, wedded with the implicit threat of military force, had made Hamas lose its appetite for violence.
Earlier this month, Israel’s national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi said that for the past two years Hamas has not initiated any rocket launches, as part of its decision to curb its violence in an “unprecedented” manner.
“Hamas is very restrained, and understands the meaning of further defiance,” he said in an interview with army radio on October 1.
To Michael Milshtein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Tel Aviv university’s Dayan Center, such remarks show “we totally misunderstood Hamas.”
“The notion of economic incentives that would diminish Hamas’ motivation for terror and even cause the public to go against it totally collapsed,” he told AFP.
“You’re dealing with a radical, ideological organization. Do you really think you can buy their ideology out? Bend it? This is a total misunderstanding, and probably included wishful thinking.
“While we believed that a radical body that takes power gradually becomes moderate, they were gaining strength and preparing the next stage of their war.”
Milshtein, a retired intelligence officer who was an adviser to COGAT, the Israeli defense body responsible for Palestinian civilian affairs, said the Hamas leadership had been publicly professing its intention to carry out an attack just like Saturday’s.
“The operation was planned for nearly a year, which is amazing because this is a year in which Israel kept on increasing the amount of labor permits and concessions,” he said.
“The Israeli conception was that Hamas doesn’t want an escalation,” Milshtein said.
“The writing was on the wall. They just didn’t want to believe it was true.”
Israel’s leadership was swift to indicate that the penny has dropped.
On Saturday, Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that when he was head of the military’s southern command in 2009, he wanted to “break the neck” of Hamas but was stopped by the political echelon.
Now, as the man who along with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu determines the course of the war, Gallant was no longer subject to restraints.
“We will change the reality on the ground in Gaza,” he vowed.
“What was before, will be no more.”
Reuters: (emphasis mine)
Oct 9 (Reuters) – A careful campaign of deception ensured Israel was caught off guard when the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched its devastating attack, enabling a force using bulldozers, hang gliders and motorbikes to take on the Middle East’s most powerful army.
Saturday’s assault, the worst breach in Israel’s defences since Arab armies waged war in 1973, followed two years of subterfuge by Hamas that involved keeping its military plans under wraps and convincing Israel it did not want a fight.
While Israel was led to believe it was containing a war-weary Hamas by providing economic incentives to Gazan workers, the group’s fighters were being trained and drilled, often in plain sight, a source close to Hamas said.
This source provided many of the details for the account of the attack and its buildup that has been pieced together by Reuters. Three sources within Israel’s security establishment, who like others asked not to be identified, also contributed to this account.
“Hamas gave Israel the impression that it was not ready for a fight,” said the source close to Hamas, describing plans for the most startling assault since the Yom Kippur War 50 years ago when Egypt and Syria surprised Israel and made it fight for its survival.
“Hamas used an unprecedented intelligence tactic to mislead Israel over the last months, by giving a public impression that it was not willing to go into a fight or confrontation with Israel while preparing for this massive operation,” the source said.
Israel concedes it was caught off guard by an attack timed to coincide with the Jewish Sabbath and a religious holiday. Hamas fighters stormed into Israeli towns, killing 700 Israelis and abducting dozens. Israel has killed more than 400 Palestinians in its retaliation on Gaza since then.
“This is our 9/11,” said Major Nir Dinar, spokesperson for the Israeli Defence Forces. “They got us.”
“They surprised us and they came fast from many spots – both from the air and the ground and the sea.”
Osama Hamdan, the Hamas representative in Lebanon, told Reuters the attack showed Palestinians had the will to achieve their goals “regardless of Israel’s military power and capabilities.”
In one of the most striking elements of their preparations, Hamas constructed a mock Israeli settlement in Gaza where they practiced a military landing and trained to storm it, the source close to Hamas said, adding they even made videos of the manoeuvres.
“Israel surely saw them but they were convinced that Hamas wasn’t keen on getting into a confrontation,” the source said.
Meanwhile, Hamas sought to convince Israel it cared more about ensuring that workers in Gaza, a narrow strip of land with more than two million residents, had access to jobs across the border and had no interest in starting a new war.
“Hamas was able to build a whole image that it was not ready for a military adventure against Israel,” the source said.
Since a 2021 war with Hamas, Israel has sought to provide a basic level of economic stability in Gaza by offering incentives including thousands of permits so Gazans can work in Israel or the West Bank, where salaries in construction, agriculture or service jobs can be 10 times the level of pay in Gaza.
“We believed that the fact that they were coming in to work and bringing money into Gaza would create a certain level of calm. We were wrong,” another Israeli army spokesperson said.
An Israeli security source acknowledged Israel’s security services were duped by Hamas. “They caused us to think they wanted money,” the source said. “And all the time they were involved in exercises/drills until they ran riot.”
As part of its subterfuge in the past two years, Hamas refrained from military operations against Israel, even as another Gaza-based Islamist armed group known as Islamic Jihad launched a series of its own assaults or rocket attacks.
The restraint shown by Hamas drew public criticism from some supporters, again aimed at building an impression that Hamas had economic concerns not a new war on its mind, the source said.
In the West Bank, controlled by Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his Fatah group, there were those who mocked Hamas for going quiet. In one Fatah statement published in June 2022, the group accused Hamas leaders of fleeing to Arab capitals to live in “luxurious hotels and villas” leaving their people to poverty in Gaza.
A second Israeli security source said there was a period when Israel believed the movement’s leader in Gaza, Yahya Al-Sinwar, was preoccupied with managing Gaza “rather than killing Jews”. At the same time, Israel turned its focus away from Hamas as it pushed for a deal to normalise relations with Saudi Arabia, he added.
Israel has long prided itself on its ability to infiltrate and monitor Islamist groups. As a consequence, the source close to Hamas said, a crucial part of the plan was to avoid leaks.
Many Hamas leaders were unaware of the plans and, while training, the 1,000 fighters deployed in the assault had no inkling of the exact purpose of the exercises, the source added.
When the day came, the operation was divided into four parts, the Hamas source said, describing the various elements.
The first move was a barrage of 3,000 rockets fired from Gaza that coincided with incursions by fighters who flew hang gliders over the border, the source said. Israel has previously said 2,500 rockets were fired at first.
Once the fighters on hang-gliders were on the ground, they secured the terrain so an elite commando unit could storm the fortified electronic and cement wall that divides Gaza from the settlements and which was built by Israel to prevent infiltration.
The fighters used explosives to breach the barriers and then sped across on motorbikes. Bulldozers widened the gaps and more fighters entered in four-wheel drives, scenes that witnesses described.
A commando unit attacked the Israeli army’s southern Gaza headquarters and jammed its communications, preventing personnel from calling commanders or each other, the source said.
The final part involved moving hostages to Gaza, mostly achieved early in the attack, the source close to Hamas said.
In one well-publicised hostage taking, fighters abducted party-goers fleeing a rave near the kibbutz of Re’im near Gaza. Social media footage showed dozens of people running through fields and on a road as gunshots were heard.
“How could this party happen this close (to Gaza)?” the Israeli security source said.
The Israeli security source said Israeli troops were below full strength in the south near Gaza because some had been redeployed to the West Bank to protect Israeli settlers following a surge of violence between them and Palestinian militants.
“They (Hamas) exploited that,” the source said.
Retired General Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told reporters on Sunday the assault represented “a huge failure of the intelligence system and the military apparatus in the south.”
More at the link!
This may be the most effective military deception (MILDEC) operation in modern history!
And, of course, as Reuters, The Arab News, Haaretz, and others have reported, Israel paid for as part of Bibi’s 20 plus year old strategy to build up Hamas as a foil to Fatah and the Palestinian Authority to prevent a two state peace agreement.
“Anyone who wants to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state has to support bolstering Hamas and transferring money to Hamas,” Netanyahu told his Likud party’s Knesset members in March 2019. “This is part of our strategy"https://t.co/7lTQs9E5Zf
— Haaretz.com (@haaretzcom) October 9, 2023
Seventh, for anyone who thinks this is going to actually bring about Bibi’s downfall, while it is possible, he has been here before.
The Economist, @TheEconomist, October 1997: pic.twitter.com/G4EWNBrMIp
— Alon Pinkas (@AlonPinkas) October 8, 2023
Eighth, this is what happens when you put religious fanatics in charge of logistics:
מסעדת ״האחים״ בתל אביב הכינה 2000 מנות מזון חם לחיילים. הגיעו לדרום לתת אותן. שלחו אותם בחזרה. ״אין לכם תעודת כשרות״. pic.twitter.com/uNLOI4VKOZ
— Ben Caspit בן כספית (@BenCaspit) October 9, 2023
Ninth, here is more on yesterday’s Wall Street Journal reporting that Iran was directly involved in planning the attack and ongoing operations:
My two (or more) cents about Iran's involvement in recent developments in Southern Israel. In my opinion, two crucial distinctions are required. First, it is necessary to distinguish between Iranian support to Hamas, as well as the ongoing coordination between IRGC, Hezbollah,…
— Raz Zimmt (@RZimmt) October 9, 2023
My two (or more) cents about Iran’s involvement in recent developments in Southern Israel. In my opinion, two crucial distinctions are required. First, it is necessary to distinguish between Iranian support to Hamas, as well as the ongoing coordination between IRGC, Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (the “Resistance Front”) and between the initiative, organization, and execution of the Hamas operation. While there is no doubt about the military cooperation between Iran and Hamas and Iran’s increasing involvement in the Palestinian arena, including the West Bank, in recent years, I highly doubt whether Iran was significantly involved in Hamas’s latest action. This is a Palestinian story. Did Hamas use Iranian aid? Definitely yes. Did Iran have an interest in this action? Yes.
Does Hamas need Iranian permission to operate? No. Was there early coordination between Hamas, Iran, and Hezbollah? It’s possible. But, in the end, it is an action by Hamas based on it own interests arising from the Palestinian reality. My assessment is also supported by the recent statement of the IDF spokesman who said, “Iran is a significant player, but we cannot say that it planned the operation or trained for it.”
A second important distinction that is between the involvement of Iran (and Hezbollah) until the Hamas operation and what will happen from now on. In recent years, I shared the assessment that Iran has no interest in expanding the conflict between Israel and Hamas to other arenas through active participation (by itself and mainly through Hezbollah) during the occasional rounds of warfare between Israel and the Palestinians. I still believe that the concept according to which Iran has no interest in involving Hezbollah (which is considered by Tehran as a strategic tool to respond to a potential Israeli attack against Iran’s nuclear facilities) is still relevant. However, we have recently witnessed at least three developments that may challenge the validity of this assessment:
A. The Hamas operation is a reality-changing event in the Middle East that may oblige Iran to move from the phase of ongoing support and coordination to a more direct involvement, especially if the Israeli response poses a significant challenge to Hamas.
B. In recent years, it has become increasingly clear to Iran that, with all due respect to the nuclear issue, a significant part of Israeli activity has been aimed at undermining the regional order and not only Iran’s nuclear program. Therefore, Iran has been more committed to increase its involvement around Israeli borders (and even inside Israel) and perhaps is also prepared to pay a higher price for a possible confrontation with Israel, not only in the nuclear context.
C. Iran has practically positioned itself on the nuclear threshold and, at this stage, is not concerned with the possibility of Israeli military action except in the scenario (which does not seem likely at this stage) of a decision to break out to nuclear weapon. Therefore, Tehran may assess that using Hezbollah is no longer considered a “waste of capabilities” but a justified way to advance its strategic vision at the most convenient time. And so, in the bottom line, even assuming (as I do) that Iranian involvement in the implementation of the Hamas operation was not significant, I believe that the danger of escalating into an event involving Iran and Hezbollah has increased significantly.
I think at this point the WSJ reporting is an interesting data point, but we need much more information with good sourcing before we can have a definitive answer to whether Iran was or was not heavily involved in the planning.
Especially as it is being knocked down by everyone:
The WSJ story claiming Iranian involvement in the attack is getting knocked down in a way you rarely if ever see pic.twitter.com/muc07CbL5K
— Max Fisher (@Max_Fisher) October 9, 2023
Here’s the difference between the importance of Israel versus Ukraine in the US Congress as a result of the convergence of US domestic politics and religion:
Unprecedented support for Israel in the US Congress.
525 members of Congress (100% of the Senate and 98% of the House of representatives) published statements supporting Israel. There is almost no single issue on which close to 100% of the members of Congress agree.
🇮🇱🇺🇸
<< pic.twitter.com/Za1su3TTt8— Yanir Cozin – יניר קוזין (@yanircozin) October 9, 2023
Specifically, that the primary base of Israel supporters in the US is no longer Jewish Americans. Rather, it is white evangelicals who adhere to the made in America apocalyptic doctrine of dispensational premillennialism. This concept asserts that for Jesus to return that the Jews must first return to Israel where they vast majority will be killed in the battle of Armageddon. The few who convert to Christianity will be saved and survive. This doctrine is both antisemitic and genocidal. It requires the complete destruction of all Jews as part of white evangelicals apocalyptic fever dreams. However, since white evangelicals are the base of the Republican Party and have been courted and manipulated by Bibi for decades, you get unanimous Republican and conservative movement support for Israel, which is reflected in the Congressional support. Democratic support for Israel is largely based on the fact that over 75% of Jewish Americans vote Democratic and are either members of the Democratic Party or are Independents that align with and vote Democratic.
The Biden administration is also, effectively, pushing back on the GOP and conservative movement talking points:
The White House slams Republican officials for attempting to politicize Hamas attacks on Israel: "While apparently some individuals like Ronna McDaniel consider this loss of life and pain a 'great opportunity,' most Americans see it as a horrific tragedy" https://t.co/ln4C4Sn6WZ
— Ben Samuels (@Bsamuels0) October 9, 2023
Hopefully, despite there being US citizens/American-Israeli dual nationals reported among Hamas’s prisoners, the Biden administration will resist the calls that will come from inside the US military to send in our own Tier 1 special operations forces to Gaza. No good will come of them trying to do their thing while Israeli conventional and special operations forces are engaged with Hamas in perhaps the worst urban combat environment imaginable.
The EU, however, is as unified as ever:
A senior European source tells @timesofisrael that the decision announced earlier today by European Union Commissioner Oliver Varhelyi to immediately sever all EU aid to the Palestinians will not be implemented due to opposition from member states. (1/3) https://t.co/9bL6ZOKkcM
— Jacob Magid (@JacobMagid) October 9, 2023
The senior European source speculated that Varhelyi’s decision will be walked back tomorrow when the EU’s foreign policy chief Josep Borell meets with European foreign ministers. (3/3)
— Jacob Magid (@JacobMagid) October 9, 2023
That’s it for now.
Open thread!
The Israel-Hamas War of October 2023: Monday 9 October UpdatePost + Comments (191)