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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Everybody saw this coming.

We will not go back.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

No one could have predicted…

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

Not so fun when the rabbit gets the gun, is it?

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

Make the republican party small enough to drown in a bathtub.

Stamping your little feets and demanding that they see how important you are? Not working anymore.

I’d hate to be the candidate who lost to this guy.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

How stupid are these people?

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

Let the trolls come, and then ignore them. that’s the worst thing you can do to a troll.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

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Final Push in Virginia – National Ground Game and the Youth Vote at Virginia Tech!

by WaterGirl|  October 26, 202512:17 pm| 70 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Political Fundraising, Politics, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

Election day is November 4 and Virginia is more important than ever. 

This off-year election gives us the chance to make the Old Dominion state the next Democratic trifecta.  Not to mention that Virginia is a bastion of reproductive rights in the Old South.

Balloon Juice peeps have done our part so far.

  • helped fund Four Directions in their expansion into Virginia to work with the Native vote there.
  • raised funds for two flippable seats in Virginia.
  • National Ground Game is the third leg of our stool in Virginia!

Dollars?

  • raised over $30,000, plus $40k in matching funds for Four Directions
  • raised over $8,000 for Kimberly Pope Adams, who is now projected to win.  (fingers crossed!)
  • raised over $5,000 for Virgil Thornton, who is on the verge of moving from toss-up to projected win by a very slim margin.

Side note: auction and raffle winners – have you received your quilts?

NEW @statenavigate.org poll in VA HD-86

GOV | 🔵Spanberger +5
LG | 🔵Hashmi +1
AG | 🔵Jones +1
HoD | 🔵Thornton +6

statenavigate.org/new-poll-sho…

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— Chaz Nuttycombe (@chaznuttycombe.bsky.social) October 21, 2025 at 12:58 PM

THERMOMETER REMOVED BECAUSE WE HAVE MET OUR GOAL, AND HAVE FULLY FUNDED THEIR ACTIVITIES FOR VIRGINIA. YAY YOU GUYS!

And in late-breaking news, Virginia Democrats are holding a special session tomorrow to draw a new Congressional map that could net us two or three additional seats in 2026.

Jay Jones, running for Attorney General, had a slight lead 4 days ago, but is slipping.  He’s a complicated candidate, but he beats the hell out of any Republican.  We need the AG in the Democratic column to actively support the new congressional map that could help us make up 2 or 3 of the seats the Rs are trying to steal with their TX gerrymandering.

All of this requires electing Abigail Spanberger for Governor and the Democrats retaining (and expanding) their razor-thin 51-49 majority in the House of Delegates.  (Senate seats are not up for re-election until 2027).


Let’s talk more about the ground game.

We helped National Ground Game register and turn out voters in Florida’s two Congressional special elections in April.

We had started to raise money for their fun and creative effort to counter-program high profile Charlie Kirk rallies on Virginia college campuses.  They were bringing in liberal influencers and Tik Tok celebrities with widespread youth appeal to counter the venom spewed by Turning Point USA (as well as register voters).

For obvious reasons, they needed to pivot in the wake of Kirk’s death.  They stepped back temporarily out of respect for the situation and to avoid adding any fuel to the overwrought martyrdom fire.  I stopped actively promoting the fundraising to give them time to regroup and make arrangements to get back into Virginia before the election.  Nevertheless, to date we have raised $4,225 for Ground Game in Virginia.

And now we’re back in the game – and with our funds, National Ground Game is  going back into Virginia!  Ground Game has jumped the bureaucratic hurdles to obtain permission to hold a get-out-the-vote event on the campus of Virginia Tech in Blacksburg featuring.

The rally will feature, among others, popular live-streamer and political commenter Destiny, who is sure to be a big draw with the yutes.  Although early voting has already started, the event will fire up college voters to turn up at the polls, provide them with late registration information, and sign them up as future volunteers.

So we are funding a big, celebratory Democratic presence on campus, days before the election!!

But wait, there’s more.  Ground Game will circulate flyers promoting House of Delegates candidate and challenger Lily Franklin.  Lily was highly recommended to us by Good Kim (see below) as an excellent campaigner and top-notch future representative.  But Lily was (fortunately) well-financed without us, so we raised funds for Virgil Thornton, hoping for a flip there.  Looks like we chose well because that seat has show as a toss-up until just a day or two ago.  Anyway, this is our chance for us to help pull Lily Franklin over the finish line, as well.

With so many fingers crossed, it’s hard to type!

The National Ground Game projects a total cost of $6,500 to underwrite this event, which includes permits, insurance, transportation, security, some paid staff, volunteer meals and related expenses.   I’ve set our goal at $7,500 because when does anything like this ever come in exactly at, or under budget?

We have a $500 angel in the wings!   pat’s Angel Match has been met, thank you!

We can do this TODAY, I hope!

Here’s hoping we can easily raise the additional funds to completely fund this fun and inspiring event.

 Things are looking good in Virginia.  Virginia election forecaster Chaz Nuttycombe has predicted a narrow win for BJ-supported candidate Virgil Thornton and a 5-point margin for Kimberly Pope Adams (our “Good Kim”), flipping two Republican held seats (h/t Blue Guitarist).  And he gives Democratic challenger Lily Franklin a 61% chance of flipping the Republican seat centered on Blacksburg and Virginia Tech.

There are 5 additional R-held seats projected to be very close – Consider volunteering to phone bank!

What they need are people to virtual phone bank from anywhere, and folks to canvass if you are in range to help with that.

Details at mobilize.us

Watch for a post early next year – and a zoom to meet the National Ground Game folks – to hear about their 2026 plans to resume counter-programming Turning Point rallies and organize stand-alone events of their own.  This is creative and exciting stuff, targeted at young voters whose political ideology is still in flux!

No Regrets!  That’s the name of the game.

 

Final Push in Virginia – National Ground Game and the Youth Vote at Virginia Tech!Post + Comments (70)

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Pastor Mike, Serving A Congregation of One

by Anne Laurie|  October 26, 20256:50 am| 336 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

Democrats should hold a press conference and announce that if Mike Johnson has no interest in running the House they'd be happy to do it for him

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— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 8:25 PM

I assumed Speaker Johnson was just preternaturally grateful that Trump’s tantrums handed him a position he’d never have been able to achieve on his own merits, but maybe there *is* something to the rumor that Trump has a blackmail hold over him. Even the NYTimes is getting suspicious — Annie Karni, “Keeping the House Absent, Johnson Marginalizes Congress and Himself”: [gift link]

… Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to put the House on an indefinite hiatus that is now stretching into its second month while the government is shut down is the latest in a series of moves he has made that have diminished the role of Congress and shrunken the speakership at a critical moment.

It’s an approach born of political expedience that could have far-reaching consequences for an institution that has already ceded much of its power to President Trump. And Mr. Johnson, who without the president’s backing wields little influence over his own members, has chosen to make himself subservient to Mr. Trump, a break with many speakers of the past who sought in their own ways to act more as a governing partner with the president than as his underling.

“I’m the speaker and the president,” Mr. Trump has joked, according to two people who heard the remark and relayed it on the condition of anonymity because of concern about sharing private conversations with him.

Mr. Johnson has done little in recent weeks to contest the point…

His strategy of indefinite hiatus means that Mr. Johnson has not engaged in the typical political theater that speakers often employ during shutdown fights to jam the party out of power: scheduling tricky votes on bills to reopen parks or pay certain categories of federal workers, like agents for Immigration and Customs Enforcement or Customs and Border Protection.

Democrats had been bracing for him to do so. But instead, he has spent much of the shutdown appearing daily at news conferences at the Capitol, hammering them for refusing to fund the government and making the case that Republicans need not negotiate. He is insistent that the House has nothing to do but wait for the stalemate to end. And he defends a growing list of extreme moves by Mr. Trump.

show full post on front page

Let’s all remember how successful Newt Gingrich’s 1995 shutdown was for him, and his party. (Not as though Johnson might be dreaming of a future ambassadorship to the Vatican, is it?)

The absenteeism, people around Mr. Johnson said, is a strategic calculation that the best way to keep his unruly rank and file in line is to place them on an extended leave.

Former Speaker Newt Gingrich, who often serves as a sounding board for Mr. Johnson, said in an interview that if the House were in session, “other issues will begin to clutter this up, and there is some small danger that some Republicans might begin to have a mixed message on the shutdown.”

In fact, such dissonance has already begun bubbling up even with everyone working remotely. The divide among Republicans over whether to extend expiring health insurance subsidies — Democrats’ central demand in the shutdown fight — has highlighted a political vulnerability for the party.

It has all created a strange dynamic on Capitol Hill: Mr. Johnson appears to be using the considerable power of the speakership to render the House irrelevant…

In keeping the House out of session, Mr. Johnson is using a relatively new rule put in place by Republicans two years ago. In 2023, they jettisoned a requirement that a resolution be passed in the House to authorize an extended legislative break, effectively handing the speaker power to declare such prolonged recesses unilaterally…

More broadly, Democrats attribute Mr. Johnson’s moves to his unquestioning deference to Mr. Trump, who has an iron grip on congressional Republicans and this week told G.O.P. senators that after they pushed through his marquee tax cut law, “We don’t need to pass any more bills.”

“It is clear that Donald Trump has effectively abolished the House of Representatives,” former Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Democrat of California, said in a statement for this story.

Representative Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York and the minority leader, recently pleaded with Mr. Trump to come back and negotiate with Democrats because “we know that House and Senate Republicans don’t do anything without permission from their boss, Donald J. Trump.”…

One also gets the impression that Senator Thune is not happy with Johnson’s blatant Trump sycophancy, either — for what little that’s worth. Thune is no intellectual giant, but he’s twice little Mike’s size, and perhaps has been strongly tempted to shove his House partner into a congressional coatroom locker.

I do wonder how much of this you can link to Johnson's rise to the speakership. Thune doesn't have a huge spine, but he's clearly tanked nominees that are unacceptable and isn't willing to just blow up the Senate because trump wants him too.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 7:28 PM

Johnson though. Backbencher becoming a speaker because he's a compromise that has no actual support and all the groups would be happy to remove.
He basically only exists at Trump's whim – he's not actually a person who's risen in the house leadership to the position. A figurehead at most.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 7:28 PM

Mccarthy at least rose through the ranks and so had an interest in his own position. Johnson is what happens when you give a leadership posting to someone who actually has 0 caucus support. His only way to stay in the job is with Trumps support.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 7:39 PM

Johnson, basically, has to effectively get rid of his own power and beg for Trump's favor to remain in his job. His incentives are actually backwards.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 7:30 PM

===

"I'm not trying to dodge the question," says Mike Johnson, dodging the question.

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— The Briefing with Jen Psaki (@briefingwithpsaki.bsky.social) October 23, 2025 at 10:38 PM

Sunday Morning Open Thread: Pastor Mike, Serving A Congregation of OnePost + Comments (336)

War for Ukraine Day 1,339: The Russian Butcher’s Bill for Last Night’s/This Morning’s Attacks

by Adam L Silverman|  October 25, 20259:16 pm| 9 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by the Ukrainain artist NEIVANMADE. The upper 1/2 is grey and there are black Shahed drones on it aimed towards the bottom of the painting. The bottom half of the painting has a blood red background and in the center of the bottom is a house, to it's left is a swing set, and to its right is a car. They are charcoal grey on the blood red background background. The drones are targeting the house, swing set, and car. Above the house and below the drones are the words "Russia Kills To Erase Free People".

As I mentioned last night, it was another long day today, so I’m just going to run through the basics. Please remember, these updates are tariff free! For now… THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!!!!

There is no daily address from President Zelenskyy today. I expect this is because he is traveling back home from the meetings in London yesterday.

Russia, however, did not let up because President Zelenskyy was meeting with other European leaders, as well as the leadership of the NATO member states.

Russia opened up on civilian targets with ballistic missiles again last night/this morning.

Kyiv:

Kyiv this morning

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 4:49 AM

Moment a ballistic missile strikes Kyiv overnight captured on video. 8 reported injured as missiles fired from fascist Russia’ Bryansk Oblast hit energy infrastructure and residential area in NE Kyiv. Fires and damage in several locations, possibly also due to shoot-down debris.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) October 24, 2025 at 11:07 PM

Since that attack, Russia has frequently activated the Kapustin Yar launch site. This has jangled nerves, but no other Oreshnik has been launched, and it’s uncertain whether Russia actually has any other operational missiles of this type.

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) October 24, 2025 at 11:34 PM

In Kyiv, firefighters are still extinguishing flames after last night’s Russian ballistic attack.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 2:37 PM

Russian ballistic missiles strike the city, yet Kyiv’s weekly market continues to operate as scheduled.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 6:16 AM

Here’s Ukraine’s air defense tally from last night:

Ukrainian Air Force: “The enemy attacked Ukraine with 9 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 62 strike drones

4 missiles and 50 drones were shot down or suppressed.

Hits of five missiles and 12 UAVs were recorded in 11 locations, as well as debris falling in four.”

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 2:11 AM

30 minutes ago – 3:oo AM local time in Ukraine/8:00 PM EDT – Russia began this morning’s attacks on Kyiv:

Kyiv is under russian attack again‼️

City’s mayor reported a strike on a multi-story residential building at the level of 2nd-3rd floors‼️

Murderous bastards.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 7:59 PM

More on Ukraine after the jump.

show full post on front page

Georgia:

Georgian protesters are gathering on Rustaveli Avenue for day 332 of uninterrupted protests. They greet oncoming traffic from the sidewalk with flags and whistles, and the drivers honk in support. 🇬🇪🇪🇺

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:10 PM

Protesters blocked Rustaveli again!

#GeorgiaProtsests
Day 332

📸 Mariam Qavshbaia

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM

Fearless Georgian activists have blocked Rustaveli Avenue again, for the 332th day in a row. 🇬🇪🇪🇺

Blocking a road now carries a 15-day sentence, and up to two years for repeated ‘offenses’.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:17 PM

Day 332. Crazy arrests continue, but people seem very determined to persist in the good old forms of the Rustaveli daily protest. #TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 5:47 PM

Today, Rustaveli Avenue was blocked for about half an hour. After police forced activists onto the sidewalk, they complied. 🇬🇪

Nearly 100 protesters are now serving administrative detentions — for “blocking the road,” “covering their faces,” or “disobeying police.”

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM

Zurab Tsetskhladze was detained for “closing the road” at the daily protest.

His son Zviad Tsetskhladze is a regime prisoner.

In Russia’s takeover of Georgia, parents are jailed for solidarity with their children.

#TerrorinGeorgia #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 3:27 AM

🟥 Oct 24, Vienna — On the 285th day of her unlawful imprisonment, Mzia Amaglobeli, founder of Batumelebi/Netgazeti, was honored with the 2025 World Press Freedom Hero Award alongside six other journalists. The award was accepted by Tamar Rukhadze, deputy director of the outlets.
#FreeMzia #Georgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) October 25, 2025 at 1:29 AM

🟥 Oct.24, Vienna — at the congress dedicated to the 75th anniversary of @globalfreemedia.bsky.social, imprisoned Georgian journalist Mzia Amaglobeli was honored with the World Press Freedom Hero Award.

🔴Georgian emigrants gathered in Vienna in support of Mzia and all political prisoners.

#FreeMzia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) October 25, 2025 at 1:33 AM

A Georgian citizen spoke about the ongoing repression and struggle in Georgia during Katy Perry’s concert in Berlin. “I’m sorry, I didn’t know. We stand with you, Georgia,” said Katy Perry from the stage.

#GeorgiaProtests

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 12:19 PM

Italy:

Italy is readying a 12th military aid package for Ukraine, focusing on munitions and SAMP/T missiles for air defense systems.
The package could be ready as soon as the end of the year – Bloomberg

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 10:41 AM

The UK:

“…and then, they tried building an oil refinery decoy”

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 9:19 AM

These dudes aren’t allowed to smile up until they meet a COMEDIAN

— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 9:20 AM

The US:

Trump on rescheduling meeting with Putin: “We’re going to have to know that we’re going to make a deal. I’m not going to be wasting my time.”

He now seems to realize that Putin has been wasting his time. All he did was try to delay sanctions.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 3:30 PM

The next step is ensuring he understands that the only path forward is to pressure Russia into peace.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 3:30 PM

This will last until Trump’s next phone call with Putin.

Putin’s envoy Kirill Dmitriev claimed on CNN that Ukraine’s air defense allegedly bombed a Kharkiv kindergarten, not Russia. When the journalist said he personally witnessed destruction across Ukraine, Dmitriev kept denying Russian strikes on civilians despite documented attacks.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:14 PM

Counterpoint:

Meanwhile on Russian state TV, propagandist Solovyov offers a different perspective, calling to “blow everything the hell out” and threatening “there will be no life” in Kharkiv, Poltava, Mykolaiv, Odesa or Kyiv. Residents must flee or be destroyed, he said.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 9:04 AM

⚡️’No pressure works on Russia,’ Kremlin envoy says as he praises Trump’s role in peace talks.

“I think it’s very important we have dialogue because President Trump already has done a lot to solve lots of the world conflicts,” Kirill Dmitriev told Fox News on Oct. 25.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) October 25, 2025 at 4:30 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Kremlin special envoy Kirill Dmitriev said Russia is in talks with members of Donald Trump’s administration team and stressed that any diplomatic solution to the war in Ukraine must address Moscow’s interests.

“We’ll be meeting with some members of the Trump administration team. I think it’s very important we have dialogue because President Trump already has done a lot to solve lots of the world conflicts,” Dmitriev told Fox News on Oct. 25.

Moscow’s envoy, who heads of Russia’s Direct Investment Fund and has been a key figure in the Kremlin’s backchannel outreach to Washington, also dismissed the impact of new U.S. sanctions, arguing that “no pressure works on Russia.”

“Frankly, we do not believe that these sanctions will have significant impact on the Russian economy because oil prices in the world will rise and Russia will sell just fewer gallons of oil at a higher price,” Dmitriev said.

“For sure, a conflict in Ukraine will have a diplomatic solution. So we’ll have a discussion how to move forward, how to make sure that Russian interests are taken into account, because only by taking Russian interests into account can the solution be found.”

He praised Trump for “avoiding escalation to World War III” and claimed that he “achieved the first ceasefire on heat and energy infrastructure that we’ve had.” He also said Trump “really understood Russian position.”

Dmitriev also repeated Kremlin talking points about Ukraine’s neutrality and said that control over what he described as “territories with Russian population” must be resolved: “So really not that many issues on the table. And basically, by understanding how they can be resolved in a diplomatic manner, the solution can be found pretty shortly.”

I have no idea what heat and energy infrastructure ceasefire he is talking about. And neither does anyone in Ukraine.

Back to Ukraine.

A formation of three Ukrainian F-16s t.me/soniah_hub/1…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:14 PM

Fighters from the 15th Separate Artillery Reconnaissance Brigade Chornyi Lis struck a Russian Buk-M3 air defense system with a strike drone.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 11:27 AM

Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

Two people were killed in a russian attack on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight — among them a rescuer.
At least seven people were injured.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 2:34 AM

Russia targeted a coal mine in Dnipropetrovsk region again.

At the time of the attack, 496 mine workers were underground. All were safely evacuated, no injuries reported.

This marks the 7th large-scale strike on DTEK’s coal facilities in the past two months.- DTEK group reported

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 8:55 AM

Kharkiv:

In Kharkiv’s Shevchenkivskyi district, an FPV drone strike occurred, likely delivered by Russian “Molniya” type UAV, according to Mayor Terekhov‼️

The attack damaged the roof of a residential building and shattered window glass. No reports of casualties have been received, the mayor added.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 10:31 AM

Russian “Molniya”-type UAV served as a carrier for two FPV drones that struck Kharkiv, Mayor Ihor Terekhov reported.

The Molniya itself crashed onto the roof of a dormitory.

Russia finds new ways to terrorise Kharkiv and other frontline cities.

Photo: Oleh Synehubov

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 11:34 AM

Kramatorsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Russians destroyed a third wind turbine in Kramatorsk this week.

It’s no secret that their strategy is to terrorize civilians until we break. But their attempts to plunge Ukraine into darkness and cold on the brink of winter deserve far more media attention.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 2:36 PM

Russian drones attacked three wind turbines at the Kramatorsk wind power plant.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 11:06 AM

We now know what Trump’s contribution was to his phone call with Putin ten days ago.

Pokrovsk, Donetsk Oblast:

Today, 25.10.25, Russians did the 5th large mechanised assault near Pokrovsk (Northern part).

Ukrainian 93, 33, 95 and other brigades destroyed at least 16 IFVs.

It’s hard to count how many were used because of the bad weather conditions (fog). But we are sure that dozens.

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— kriegsforscher.bsky.social (@kriegsforscher.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 11:35 AM

Volodymyrivka, Donetsk Oblast:

❗️Today Russian forces attempted to breach the 33rd brigade’s defense line near Volodymyrivka using five armored vehicles.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 11:54 AM

/2. A Russian convoy of armored vehicles sank in a swamp during today’s attack on the Pokrovsk front.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 11:55 AM

Vorone, Sumy Oblast (I think this is the one in Sumy, there’s also a Vorone in Crimea and, I’m pretty sure, in Voronezh Oblast):

An assault group from the 3rd Battalion of the 225th Assault Brigade ambushed Russian transport near Vorone village. Russians traveling in a buggy were stopped by rifle fire, then struck with coordinated fire as infantry retreated to nearby tree lines.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 2:03 PM

The eastern front:

A Ukrainian SBU drone, reportedly a Punisher, struck a Russian S-300/400 air defense launcher with two munitions on the eastern front.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 5:24 AM

Izium, Kharkiv Oblast:

A new underground educational center opened in frontline Izium, eastern Kharkiv Oblast, with support from German donors and Ukrainian partners — SavED charitable foundation.

⤵️

📷SavED

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:08 PM

Over 2,000 local schoolchildren have studied exclusively online since Russian forces occupied the city for five months in 2022. Izium was then liberated but is being shelled regularly. ⤵️

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 1:08 PM

From EuroMaidan Press:

Four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, elementary school students in Izium, eastern Kharkiv Oblast, have never attended a real classroom.

That changed this week when the city opened its largest underground educational center—a facility that can accommodate 100 students at once, according to SavED charitable foundation.

The space sits beneath a local lyceum in four reinforced rooms. Inside: 45 new computers for a dedicated IT classroom, interactive learning zones, a mini-library, and a sports area. Students will rotate through in shifts after completing their regular online lessons.

The SavED built the center with support from German donors and Ukrainian partners including GEA Ukraine, SQUAD Ukraine, Seven Lions Media, and Roosh.

Olena Andrushok, director of the Izium lyceum, said families have already begun transferring students from other institutions.

The need is acute. Russian forces occupied Izium for over five months in 2022, destroying and looting educational institutions. The city still faces regular shelling because of its proximity to Russian border. Over 2,000 local schoolchildren study exclusively online.

The pattern extends across the frontline. According to savED’s 2024 research, 49% of students from frontline regions have studied online for four consecutive years. In Kharkiv Oblast alone, over 147,000 children receive education remotely.

Hanna Novosad, savED co-founder, explained the organization’s approach.

“Even a few hours of in-person classes per week in a safe space provide students with a sense of community and socialization,” Novosad said.

Security conditions make underground facilities the only viable option for any form of offline education.

The organization established its first Izium center, “Vulyk” (The Hive), in 2023 with European Commission support. The new facility represents a significant expansion of that initial space.

Kherson:

Russia has already killed 2877 Kherson civilians in its drone safari. And the ticker is rising each day.

Each of the dots is a geoconfirmed, prooflinked case of deliberate Russian murder against old ladies, children, and first responders in Kherson 👇
tochnyi.info/2025/09/witn…

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— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 12:08 PM

One of the latest Russian “victories”: 84-yo goat herder murdered w/ FPV drone — together with 2 little goats.

Why do Russians deliberately target civilians & animals? Drone pilots graduates from Rostov-on-Don need to practice, military sources say
euromaidanpress.com/2025/10/23/r…

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 12:08 PM

This Russian terror has been exposed in Zarina Zabrisky’s film “Human Safari” — it is available for free viewing:
euromaidanpress.com/2025/08/22/t…

— Euromaidan Press (@euromaidanpress.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 12:08 PM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Russian sources claim HIMARS strikes allegedly hit the Belgorod reservoir dam yesterday evening, causing damage to technical facilities, spillway mechanisms, and the dam crest with Rosgvardia casualties.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 3:57 AM

Saratov Oblast, Russia:

The 500 kV Balashovskaya electrical substation in Saratov region was attacked, the regional governor reported, marking the second strike on the facility this month.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) October 25, 2025 at 3:39 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,339: The Russian Butcher’s Bill for Last Night’s/This Morning’s AttacksPost + Comments (9)

Saturday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  October 25, 20257:45 pm| 133 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House", Open Threads

I was thinking the other day- it has been forever since I have talked about an actual issue. Now every second of every day is occupied recoiling in horror and the idea of talking about a good green energy policy or a good way to expand health coverage and improving outcomes while lowering costs or anything, really, is just so fucking quaint. Nothing fucking matters.

It’s really just keep doing the things you do to keep yourself sane and waiting for when it’s time to do our thing and take the country back. But making long-term plans? Nah. Just stay alive.

I had some chicken thighs in the freezer I bought a while back when they were super cheap, and I need to use them before I leave, so I made mulligatawny stew. I had all the ingredients in stock except for some heavy cream, although I only had four carrots and I usually like more than that because carrots soaked in curry just taste so good, especially if you make big slices of carrot, and I served the whole thing over a little jasmine rice and topped with some cilantro. Very good and I have a couple meals worth, although I used up the last of the rice.

I was babbling earlier on bluesky- when I was a kid growing up, I had no idea that people ate chili not only without beans, but without rice. The way we made it you put a big mound of rice in the bowl, ladled a couple things of chili over it, and then topped it with a little shredded cheese and crushed fritos. I suppose it is probably just one of my dad’s low budget fill the kids up meals that also happens to taste just as good or better than just chili.

I was thinking I need to create a couple spotify playlists for the trip. Other than that, I got nothing. I am so tapped out today and just drained, and I don’t know why.

Saturday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (133)

Open Thread: TrumpCo’s Pentagon Chooses Its Press Corpse Corps

by Anne Laurie|  October 25, 20255:42 pm| 35 Comments

This post is in: Media, Military, Open Threads, Republican Politics, Trump Crime Cartel

Easy to overlook this particular ‘autocracy in action’ thread amidst the spate of recent outrages…

The time of the legitimate White House Press Corps would be better spent investigating real stories about the Trump Admin than hanging around asking these lying bozos questions.

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— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) October 23, 2025 at 12:14 PM

Per the Poynter Institute, “The Pentagon’s new press corps — journalists or advocates?”:

For years, the Department of Defense — one of the most important, scrutinized and reported-on departments in our government — has been covered extensively by reporters from inside the Pentagon. This included journalists from some of the most respected and accomplished news outlets in the business, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, NBC, CBS, ABC, and CNN, just to name a few. In fact, CBS’s Eleanor Watson noted, “During D-Day, CBS News radio correspondent Joseph F. McCaffrey reported live from the Pentagon about the strategy and General Dwight D. Eisenhower’s background.”…

But those outlets are no longer in the Pentagon after refusing to sign a new press policy that prohibits journalists from accessing or soliciting information that the Defense Department doesn’t make available to them, including even unclassified information.

It’s troubling which news outlets are no longer at the Pentagon.

Just as troubling is which outlets and so-called “journalists” are.

In a statement on Wednesday, Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said more than 60 journalists have agreed to the new rules. He wrote that they represent “a broad spectrum of new media outlets and independent journalists.”…

According to the Post’s Harwell and Scott Nover, the outlets now supposedly doing the digging and working the halls inside the Pentagon include Tim Pool’s Timcast, the Gateway Pundit, the Post Millennial, Human Events, the National Pulse, Turning Point USA and a Substack newsletter called Washington Reporter. Then there’s ​​the very pro-Trump One America News, the Federalist and the Epoch Times. It also includes Lindell TV — as in Mike Lindell, the MyPillow guy and ardent supporter of President Donald Trump. And, the Pentagon said, there are a bunch of “independent journalists.” Although none were mentioned by name, it’s a good guess to say that the “independent journalists” are certainly big on “independent” but not so big on “journalists.”

All are clearly OK with the Pentagon’s press restrictions. That alone should make anyone question their journalistic chops. Meanwhile, most of them have proven to be strong supporters of Trump, his administration and the entire MAGA movement…

show full post on front page

As I wrote last week, just because places like The New York Times, The Washington Post and the networks are no longer inside the Pentagon doesn’t mean those places will stop reporting on the Department of Defense. But, undoubtedly, their jobs just got a tad bit harder in terms of having access to those they cover.

They aren’t, however, going to give up, even though Parnell claimed those who didn’t sign the new policy “self-deport(ed)” from the Pentagon.

Barbara Starr, who covered the Pentagon at CNN for two decades and served as a board member of the Pentagon Press Association, tweeted, “First we wish any legitimate journalist well on their journey to cover the news. But ‘your’ government announcement of a next gen press corps is shall we say beyond odd. The Pentagon press corps still is working every day no matter how afraid of it you all seem to be. ‘Self deport’? Naw. Too busy working!”…

Here's who @scottnover.bsky.social and I have confirmed so far.
All right-wing bloggers and influencers who
* agreed to the press restrictions refused by established reporters
* are known for soft-touch treatment of the Trump administration
* will now get special access to the "Department of War"

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— Drew Harwell (@drewharwell.com) October 22, 2025 at 2:13 PM

===

An important thing about these rw grifting types is not only are they intellectually dishonest, they're really fucking lazy.
So this is gonna be something.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) October 23, 2025 at 10:44 AM

===

Extremely funny that INFOWARS has agreed not to publish anything without the explicit consent of the US government

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— Simon Little ?? (@simonplittle.ca) October 23, 2025 at 1:52 PM

===

lots of little hairline cracks starting to show

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— GHOULLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) October 16, 2025 at 3:18 PM

this woman's not going to become a democrat or anything, but demoralizing the base so that, say, one in ten stay home is a landslide win

— GHOULLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) October 16, 2025 at 3:21 PM

Open Thread: TrumpCo’s Pentagon Chooses Its Press <del>Corpse</del> CorpsPost + Comments (35)

Operation Voter Intimidation

by Betty Cracker|  October 25, 20252:55 pm| 71 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Republican Venality, Assholes

A few weeks ago in an interview I saw on TV, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker was asked why Trump is deploying federal troops in Chicago and other American cities. Pritzker said he thinks Trump wants to normalize troops in the streets, in part so he can use a show of force to intimidate voters in upcoming elections that are likely to go badly for Republicans.

The corrupt Department of Justice added another proof point for the Great Khan’s* theory in a press release that dropped yesterday:

Justice Department to Monitor Polling Sites in California, New Jersey

WASHINGTON – Today, the Department of Justice announced that it will monitor polling sites in six jurisdictions ahead of the upcoming November 4, 2025, general election to ensure transparency, ballot security, and compliance with federal law…

At this time, the Department will monitor the following jurisdictions:

Passaic County, New Jersey
Kern County, California
Riverside County, California
Fresno County, California
Orange County, California
Los Angeles County, California

At Attorney General Pamela Bondi’s direction, this effort will be overseen by the Department of Justice’s Civil Rights Division under the leadership of Assistant Attorney General Harmeet K. Dhillon. The Division will deploy Civil Rights personnel who will coordinate with U.S. Attorney’s Offices.

It’s important to note that both Bondi and Dhillon are 2020 election deniers. Neither is dumb enough to sincerely believe Trump won in 2020; they are rabid ideologues who have proved willing to subvert democracy for partisan gain.

I’m trying to figure out the significance of their using the DOJ’s Civil Rights division for this operation, if any. Is it that employees of that division have been idled since 1/20/2025 since the administration is actively hostile to the concept of civil rights, so that unit has the capacity? Or will they go all the way through the funhouse mirror and allege white votes are being suppressed?

I suspect we’ll see even more corrupt and overtly anti-democratic antics from Trump and his flunkies as the backlash to his unpopular agenda builds. Don’t know what we average citizens can do to counter voter intimidation, except maybe volunteer to transport and/or accompany voters who might be targeted for harassment to the polls, help folks sign up for vote by mail where available, etc.

Please feel free to share ideas. Otherwise, open thread.

*Did y’all hear about that time the Great Khan sacked Las Vegas? As a friend on Bluesky noted, surely he has the mandate of heaven! 

Operation Voter IntimidationPost + Comments (71)

Mark Your Calendars for the Wednesday Series on Artificial Intelligence

by WaterGirl|  October 25, 20252:00 pm| 21 Comments

This post is in: Artificial Intelligence, Open Threads, Science & Technology

Okay, so we have a plan for the series on Artificial Intelligence that was proposed in the post earlier this week.

Artificial Intelligence: A Question for Balloon Juice Peeps

This will be a 7-part series.  It’s the same material as the outline that showed 5 parts, just broken into 7 posts instead of 5 parts.

So if you’re interested, mark your calendars for Wednesdays at 7:30 pm.  (blog time)

Part 1:  Oct 29
Part 2:  Nov 5
Part 3:  Nov 12
Part 4:  Nov 19

skip Thanksgiving week

Part 5:  Dec 3
Part 6:  Dec 10
Part 7:  Dec 17

Revised Outline

Post 1: What is AI, And How Did We Get Here

  • Who am I, what do I do, and why do I think I have anything useful to say about AI?
  • Overview of series
  • What is AI?
    • Modern “AI” is all deep learning, which is all machine learning, which is all statistical learning. There is no reasoning, or anything else analogizable to human cognition, beyond “learning”. For the purposes of these posts, we will stick to the term “machine learning,” and avoid the obnoxious term AI (except in scare quotes) because that term only brings business/funding/marketing distractions into a discussion that I would like to keep as technically sound as I can.
    • That said, machine learning represents a very powerful set of techniques for assimilating masses of data, and structuring reasonable decisions based on that data.
  • A brief history of the deep learning revolution.
    • The state of play in applied mathematics and statistics before the revolution
    • The computer scientists see an opportunity seize the day
    • Incredible achievements, blinding speed of progress
    • Costs and benefits of progress.
      • Benefits:
        • Solutions to problems previously regarded as insoluble (image classification, natural language processing, voice processing, high-dimensional modeling, many others)
        • Solutions to hard scientific problems (protein folding, experiment design and control, literature search, climate/weather modeling, many others)
      • Costs:
        • The abandonment of scientific epistemology
        • The embrace of heuristics over algorithms
        • The analogy to financial mathematics
        • Goodbye to Model Correctness, Model Verification, Model Validation.

Post 2: “AI” State of Play

  • Different types of data, different approaches, different levels of success
  • Two outlooks on machine learning: Model-Centric (the consensus view) and “Data-Centric” (the rebel alliance :-) ). Description of the differences in these outlooks, and in some of the research agenda consequences.
  • The data-centric view informs the remainder of the discussion. So this is going to sound like a very strange story to anyone who has been following developments in “AI”, irrespective of their level of technical literacy.
  • Where are we today in “AI”?
    • The current research/investment landscape focuses on language models (tokenized data)
      • The shock of OpenAI’s GPT models, ChatGPT
      • The embarrasment of “hallucinations”
      • Hyperscaling
      • The research/business consensus: hyperscaling will remove hallucinations, reach “Artificial General Intelligence” (“AGI”)
  • Does this story make sense?
    • The Underwear Gnomes: …Profit!
    • The problem of science&technology groupthink
    • The corruption of scientific discourse by Tech company business interests. The analogies to climate science, and to the Tobacco Institute.

Post 3: There is no AGI Down This Road

  • At least, there is no scientifically credible case that computer reasoning that can even theoretically emerge from machine learning. And reasoning is a necessary condition for AGI.
  • The circular argument for LLM “reasoning”
  • The sheer implausibility of the “Learning to AGI” hypothesis
    • On inverse problems
    • The inverse problem from language to cognition
    • The absurdity of transformers as tools for solving the required inverse problem, and as mediums for embodying the solution
  • Claims for “General Intelligence” in chatbot output are pure, ascientific bullshit, as in “not even wrong.” Those claims are nonetheless taken very seriously by the “AI” research community.

Post 4: If There Were AGI, What Would It Look Like

  • What is “learning”. Bayesian updating, in words rather than with equations
  • What could reasoning actually mean in this context?
    • The discontinuity of “Aha!”
    • Machine learning is a continuous process that doesn’t do “Aha!”
  • How might one go about getting to “Artificial Aha!” (AA!)
    • Reasoning as Model Reform
    • Reasoning as Evidence Reform
  • AGI may be possible by other means, but that isn’t where we are going currently. “AI” is machine learning technology, and reasoning essentially transcends learning.

Post 5: Hallucinations

  • What are “AI Hallucinations”
    • Some fun examples. Legal briefs, homework, airline bookings…
  • Why are hallucinations a problem?
    • If reasoning really “emerges” from learning, why is it so crippled, and how could it be cured of mental illness?
  • Natural Language Processing (NLP). History of the transformer architecture, the attention mechanism.
  • Approximating the distribution of text.
  • The sampling dilemma: most probable words vs. most probable sentences vs. most probable paragraphs, etc.
  • Why is the approximation to the distribution so bad? Token embedding. Euclidean corruption of token sequences. Examples.
  • Hallucinations are never going away: they are a structural feature of all current approaches to NLP. You can’t train your way out of them with more data, and you cant bejigger the code to fix them.

Post 6: The Pathology At The Heart Of Hyperscaling

  • The hyperscaling consensus.
    • Insane investments. Compute, power, human effort.
    • Buy-in to the consensus beyond the Tech Industry (academia and govvernment)
    • The costs:
      • Academia is shut out of “AI” research, due to costs.
      • Government very nearly is as well
      • Investors, fund managers, capital, committed to an outlook wherein $300-400B/year for the next 5-10 years required to develop and train models. 60GW of additional electrical generation expected for the US alone, just to keep the GPUs running.
  • The data inefficiency of deep learning/neural network methods
    • Overparametrization has costs and benefits:
      • Easy to learn and exploit vector/image, natural science data.
      • Unaffordably hard to learn/exploit natural language data
  • What have we learned from transformers?
    • Natural language can in fact be modeled.
    • If we keep doing it this way, the cost in power, effort, and money is unaffordable.
  • Why are we not looking for alternatives?
    • Riff on groupthink
    • What might an alternative approach look like?

Post 7: AI Winter III in 5, 4, 3,…

  • The historical cycles of the previous 2 “AI Winters”.
      1. Progress, (2) excitement, (3) investment, (4) hype, (5) disillusionment, (6) disinvestment+wringing of hands
    • We appear to be at the beginnings of stage (5). See Ed Zitron’s blog.
  • The basic story that justifies the crazy investments in AI is that hyperscaling and more data will abate hallucinations and achieve AGI. AGI will cause markets to arise that amortize those investments, and reward the players that made them (and punish those that di not)
  • This argument is wrong, for technical reasons.
    • There is no AGI on this technological path
    • Hallucinations are a structural feature of all current “AI”, and cannot be trained or finessed away
    • Hyperscaling, which is driven by the pathologically inefficient use of data made by transformers, only means that it will take an infinite amount of time, compute, money, energy, and effort to get to the end ofthis rainbow and discover that there is no pot of gold labelled “AGI, Profit!” there.
  • Ultimately, however, historical evidence indicates that the dispositive argument will be financial rather than technical. Investors are going to lose confidence in an industry that cannot figure out how any player can be profitable (again, see Zitron). The reasons for their failure are ultimately technical, but the agents who close down the show will be financiers and shareholders who don’t like how their money is being spent.
    • My guess is that the reckoning, and AI Winter III, are coming in 2026. Don’t make any investment decisions based on what I write, though.
  • Then what?
    • Getting research out from under the corrupting influence of the tech industry
    • Babies and bathwater.

Mark Your Calendars for the Wednesday Series on Artificial IntelligencePost + Comments (21)

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