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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

The current Supreme Court is a dangerous, rogue court.

“Just close your eyes and kiss the girl and go where the tilt-a-whirl takes you.” ~OzarkHillbilly

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

This fight is for everything.

Sometimes the world just tells you your cat is here.

This has so much WTF written all over it that it is hard to comprehend.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

“In the future, this lab will be a museum. do not touch it.”

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

Peak wingnut was a lie.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Well, whatever it is, it’s better than being a Republican.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Washington Post Catch and Kill, not noticeably better than the Enquirer’s.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

In after Baud. Damn.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Decision time: keep arguing about the last election, or try to win the next one?

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Something needs to be done about our bogus SCOTUS.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Taking a Break from the News

by WaterGirl|  May 2, 202510:30 am| 39 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Respite, Serenity Pics

In case anyone wants to take a break from the news, here are all the sidebar images from April.

In no particular order.  Click on any image to see it in full-size.

Just enjoy the beauty, or chime in with thoughts about a daily image in the sidebar.

Open thread.

On The Road - Albatrossity - The Chiricahuas week 3 5
Image by Albatrossity (4/20/25)
4 Sidebar Photos – April 2025
Image by HinTN (4/2/25)
On The Road - lashoharangue - Botswana - Makgadikgadi Pans National Park 2
Image by lashoharangue (4/1/25)
First Night: Home Sweet Home!
Image by MomSense (4/3/25)

show full post on front page

On The Road - Munira - Sunrise, Sunset 5
Image by Munira (4/4/25)
On The Road - Munira - Sunrise, Sunset 7
Image by Munira (4/6/25)
On The Road - lashonharangue - Mayan Ruins and the Sacred Monkey River [4 of 4] 4
Image by lashonharangue (4/5/25)
On The Road - lashonharangue - Mayan Ruins and the Sacred Monkey River [2 of 4] 8
Image by lashonharangue (4/8/25)
On The Road - Elma - Eclipse Trip 4
Image by Elma (4/9/25)
On The Road - Albatrossity - Spring migration begins 7
Image by Albatrossity (4/7/25)
On The Road - JAFD - Cherry Blossoms of Newark, part 3 4
Image by JAFD (4/12/25)
On The Road - JAFD - Cherry Blossoms of Newark, part 2 2
Image by JAFD (4/13/25)
On The Road - Albatrossity - Serengeti Day 2, Round 2 4
Image by Albatrossity (4/18/25)
On The Road - ema - City Blooms and Solidarity Ducks 2
Image by ema (4/10/25)
On The Road - Albatrossity - Serengeti - day 1 5
Image by Albatrossity (4/17/25)
On The Road - way2blue - Fjords of Tierra del Fuego March 2023 1
Image by way2blue (4/14/25)
On The Road - way2blue - Fjords of Tierra del Fuego March 2023 2
Image by way2blue (4/16/25)
On The Road - Munira - On the Haiku Road – The Natural Elements 7
Image by Munira (4/15/25)
On The Road - Dangerman - Point Sur Lighthouse (And Whale Watching, Wildflowers. and a Random Lighthouse Story) 9
Image by Dangerman (4/19/25)
On The Road - Albatrossity - Spring 2023 in Flyover Country - week 2 4
Image by Albatrossity (4/11/25)
Image by Raven (4/21/25)
On The Road - Albatrossity - Spring 2022 in Flyover Country - Week 2 4
Image by Albatrossity (4/27/25)
On The Road - JanieM - Home and Away - Maine #7
Image by JanieM (4/22/25)
On The Road - Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!) - Turneffe Flats Resort, Turneffe Atoll, Belize 2
Image by Mike S (4/23/25)
On The Road - Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!) - Turneffe Flats Resort, Turneffe Atoll, Belize 3
Image by Mike S (4/24/25)
On The Road - Mike S (Now with a Democratic Congressperson!) - Turneffe Flats Resort, Turneffe Atoll, Belize 4
Image by Mike S (4/25/25)
On The Road - ema - Water For WaterGirl
Image by ema (4/26/25)
On The Road - frosty - Channel Islands National Park
Image by frosty’s friend John (4/28/25)
On The Road - For Alain - Fly Away Home 34
Image by skybluepink (4/29/25)
On The Road - For Alain - Fly Away Home 6
Image by Frank West (4/30/25)

Taking a Break from the NewsPost + Comments (39)

War for Ukraine Day 1,162: When Is a Deal a Shakedown?

by Adam L Silverman|  May 1, 202511:10 pm| 8 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

My power came back on around 12:40 AM and has stayed on, so we are good to go. I have no idea what the issue was, the power in my neighborhood almost never goes out.

As I included in last night’s update, Ukraine and the US agreed to a deal for an investment for reconstruction fund. It does potentially include investments in Ukraine’s mineral, including rare earth elements (REEs), and natural gas sectors, but it’s not the minerals or rare earth element deal that was being pushed back in February. It also appears to have been what was necessary to get Trump and his team to open up US military sales and the provision of military aid.

It was downright cruel to stall weapon sales while the missiles kept pouring down on us—just to twist our arm into signing the deal. But hey, a win’s a win.
Yay to weapon!

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 6:39 AM

While there is still room under the presidential draw down cap in the aid for Ukraine, Taiwan, Israel, and a few other places bill that passed last year after months of Republican delays, I think it is actually better that Ukraine is buying a lot of these weapons. It puts Ukraine on the same footing as other US allies and partners as buyers. And that’s important to the current president because he thinks of himself as someone selling things.

From The Kyiv Independent:

The Trump administration formally notified Congress on April 29 that it is preparing to authorize the sale of “$50 million or more” in “defense articles” to Ukraine.

This marks the first such move under the current U.S. government.

The notification, recorded as communication EC-859, is a memo from the Senior Bureau Official, Legislative Affairs, Department of State, to the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations.

Under the Arms Export Control Act, the document informs lawmakers of a proposed license to export “defense articles, including technical data, and defense services to Ukraine in the amount of $50 million or more.”

It provided no further details about the types of weapons or services.

The development comes alongside the April 30 signing of a long-awaited minerals agreement between Ukraine and the U.S., which establishes a joint investment fund focused on future extraction and processing projects.

After months of talks, Kyiv and Washington finalized a deal structured around new investments, excluding provisions tied to past debts or existing facilities.

Ukraine has expressed readiness to deepen its defense partnership with the U.S.

On April 13, President Volodymyr Zelensky told CBS News that Ukraine is prepared to purchase 10 U.S.-made Patriot air defense systems for $15 billion to protect cities from ongoing Russian missile and drone attacks.

“We will find the money and pay for everything,” Zelensky said, adding that he made the offer directly to U.S. President Donald Trump and previously to former President Joe Biden.

Trump rejected the request on April 14, accusing Zelensky of “always looking to purchase missiles” and falsely claiming that Ukraine provoked the war with Russia.

The U.S. president has consistently opposed unconditional military grants to Ukraine, pushing instead for loans or deals tied to reciprocal economic benefits.

“We are in for $350 billion, or close to it… Biden handed them $350 billion between cash and military equipment. We got nothing,” Trump said during a May 1 interview with NewsNation.

“So I said, look, they have great rare earth — meaning certain minerals, materials — they have things that a lot of places do not have, big assets that they have. And we made a deal today — we get much more, in theory, than the $350 billion,” he added, referencing the minerals deal.

Trump has repeatedly avoided answering whether the U.S. would continue aiding Ukraine if Russia refuses to negotiate, leaving open questions about his commitment to Kyiv’s defense in the absence of peace talks.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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This Is the First Tangible Outcome of the Vatican Meeting, Making It Historic – Address by the President

1 May 2025 – 19:15

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, our government team reported on the economic partnership with the United States. We have an agreement. It has been signed and will be submitted to the Verkhovna Rada for ratification. And we are interested in having no delays with it. Our representatives – first and foremost, First Deputy Prime Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko, the team from the Ministry of Economy, as well as the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Justice – all did a very good job. The agreement has changed significantly during the preparation process. It is now truly an equal partnership – one that creates opportunities for substantial investment in Ukraine, as well as significant modernization of Ukraine’s industries and, equally importantly, its legal practices. The agreement foresees no debt. It stipulates the establishment of a Reconstruction Fund that will invest in Ukraine and generate returns here. This means joint work with America, based on fair terms, allowing both Ukraine and the United States, which supports us in our defense, to make money in partnership. We spoke with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, about our readiness to conclude the agreement – we discussed it during our meeting in the Vatican. In fact, this is the first tangible outcome of that Vatican meeting, making it truly historic.

We look forward to other outcomes from that conversation – it was a meaningful meeting, and President Trump and I used every minute to the fullest. I thank him for that. And once again, I thank both our teams – the Ukrainian and the American. The work on the agreement was truly professional, and although the negotiations were at times challenging, the result is a strong one.

Today, I spoke with Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Ruslan Stefanchuk – including about the ratification of the agreement. We also discussed the legislative agenda for the coming weeks.

Today, we have new sanctions, new decisions on sanctions – three sanctions packages. We are blocking the activities of numerous entities – companies and individuals who, unfortunately, work for Russia in one way or another. They assist the Russian army and the occupation structures on our land – in Crimea and in the Donetsk region. This time, sanctions also target those who, regrettably, serve Russian propaganda and are involved in information operations against Ukraine and against Ukrainians. What matters most now is that our country’s sanctions be synchronized with those of our partners.

The Head of the Security Service of Ukraine reported on the investigation into the attack on volunteer Serhii Sternenko. The Security Service of Ukraine detained the attacker promptly – thank you for that. All facts related to the attack will be presented to the public.

And one more thing.

There was a report from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi on the situation at the front. The Donetsk region, the Pokrovsk direction – that’s currently where the most intense fighting is taking place among all the hotspots along the frontline. Our units, our warriors, are doing a great job. The 1st Separate Assault Regiment, the 59th Separate Assault Brigade of the Unmanned Systems Forces, the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 414th Separate Unmanned Systems Brigade of the Ground Forces – thank you, warriors! The Russians are getting a proper response. Thank you to everyone standing with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Day 155 of #GeorgiaProtests

“Until the end!”

Our friends can help us bring the end by further targeted sanctions, regime non-engagement, calls for new, free and fair elections, and support for media & CSOs.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 3:07 PM

1/ Tbilisi City Court Judge Davit Tetrauli fined Miranda Bagaturia and Ana kurashvili—press service staffers of the Akhali and Girchi — More Freedom parties—4,000 GEL each. Representatives of Ministry of Internal Affairs had sought administrative detention against them.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:14 AM

2/ They were accused of allegedly insulting Mirian Kavtaradze under Article 173, Part 2 of the Administrative Offences Code. Kavtaradze is the police officer whom one of the protest detainees, Saba Skhvitadze, is accused of assaulting and is currently detained for.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:14 AM

3/ Mirian Kavtaradze testified during Skhvitadze’s court hearing on April 17. After the testimony, he left the courtroom amid protest chants—an incident that led to the administrative charges.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:14 AM

4/ During the hearing, Miranda Bagaturia stated that she had been attending a different session in another courtroom and that by the time she stepped outside into the courtyard, Kavtaradze had already left. Ana kurashvili said she remained inside the courtroom during his exit and did not follow him.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:14 AM

6/ In addition to Bagaturia and kurashvili, administrative proceedings have also been launched against Saba Skhvitadze’s brother, Tornike Skhvitadze, and Akhali member Ani Kavtaradze. Their hearing at Tbilisi City Court is scheduled for tomorrow, May 2.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:14 AM

There was no skeet #5.

Judge Davit Tetraili fined Miranda Bagaturia and Ana Qurashvili 4,000 GEL each.

#GeorgiaProtests

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 1, 2025 at 7:45 AM

Judge Davit Tetraili fined Miranda Bagaturia and Ana Qurashvili 4,000 GEL each.

#GeorgiaProtests

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 1, 2025 at 7:45 AM

Regime court security dragged Coalition for Change member from Ahali, Nika Kvitatiani, almost strangling him (video doesn’t depict all). Another member, Mariam Shushania, was also dragged and her hand is likely stretched badly. Yet another member, Natia Letodiani of Droa, suffered minor injuries. 1/

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 8:48 AM

Today, the regime prosecution demanded imprisonment for Girchi – More Freedom and Ahali party press secretaries, Ana Kurashvili and Miranda Bagaturia, over their alleged verbal insult to a policeman (whereas Bagaturia had not even been present at the alleged incident). 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 8:48 AM

Ultimately, the regime judge sentenced them to quite a major fine. 3/3.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 8:48 AM

⭕️At Tbilisi City Court, a case is underway concerning prisoners of conscience detained during pro-European protests.

Photo – Mindia Gabadze /
@publikage.bsky.social

#GeorgiaProtests
#RepressionInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 1, 2025 at 4:38 AM

⭕️11 protesters arrested during the December 2024 #GeorgiaProtests remain in custody after Tbilisi City Court denied their release on May 1.

🔴Judge Nino Galustashvili sided with prosecutors, who argued the detainees could flee or reoffend.
#RepressionInGeorgia

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) May 1, 2025 at 10:39 AM

2/ The judge of the Kutaisi City Court, Nikoloz Margvelashvili, has ordered the detention of four miners — Merab Saralidze, Giorgi Nefaridze, Achiko Chumburidze, and Tengo Gvelesiani — as a preventive measure.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:15 AM

2/ The prosecution has brought more serious charges against the miners. Merab Saralidze and Giorgi Nefaridze are accused of organising and participating in group violence, while Achiko Chumburidze and Tengo Gvelesiani are charged only with participation.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:15 AM

3/ Organising or leading group violence is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 6 to 9 years, while participation in such violence carries a sentence of 4 to 6 years.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:15 AM

4/ According to the investigation, the defendants physically confronted the director of the Shukhuti mine, Tengiz Koberidze, causing injuries to various parts of his body

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 11:15 AM

There are also two skeets number 2.

1/ On May 7, Georgian Dream will hold its party convention to elect a new chairman after Irakli Garibashvili quit politics, dodging rumored rifts with Ivanishvili. Here’s what my insider source says, and my take on GD’s latest circus. #GeorgiaProtests

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— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:03 PM

2/ Source says PM Irakli Kobakhidze will become GD chairman, consolidating his grip as party and country leader. Ivanishvili might step down as honorary chair, scrapping the role to “leave politics”—his classic dodge when sanctions loom, just like in 2013 and 2021.

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:03 PM

3/ Meanwhile, Mamuka Mdinaradze is set to replace Vakhtang Gomelauri as Minister of Internal Affairs this month. Gomelauri, not in Kobakhidze’s clique, is already a powerless figurehead with direct ties to Ivanishvili—another reshuffle to tighten control.

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:03 PM

4/ Deputy PM Levan Davitashvili might follow Gomelauri out the door, per my source. With Ivanishvili pulling strings, this looks like a purge of non-Kobakhidze loyalists.

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:03 PM

5/ Ivanishvili “leaving” politics again? Don’t buy it. It’s a sanctions shield—his go-to move when the heat’s on. GD’s crisis deepens, but they’re doubling down on power grabs. For those watching Georgia closely, this is a pivotal shift.

— Anna Gvarishvili (@annagvarish.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:03 PM

Observers note consolidation of power under Kobakhidze’s clan within Ivanishvili’s proxy dictatorship of the Kremlin.

This is either interpreted as a power move, like, the crystallization of loyalists that would sign up for just anything, or as a structural weakness.

In any case though, 1/

[image or embed]

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:22 PM

it seems like we will have more clumsy or outright wrong moves from the regime – the crystallization is rushed & causes grievances within the system, the more hardline they go the more discomfort their enablers will feel, and Kobakhidze is just an awkward person with lots of personal limitations. 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:22 PM

Essentially, what we need now is to outlast some waves of regime cracks without mass emigration. And for that, we need help in sustaining free media and CSOs, who aren’t just necessary as outlets and organizations but represent quite an important human core of protesters. 3/3.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 2:22 PM

The US:

The Financial Times has more on the “deal”:

It was an idea Volodymyr Zelenskyy thought would stir Donald Trump’s interest in backing Ukraine: an offer for the US to gain special access to his country’s abundant natural resources.

When Ukraine’s president pitched the plan in Trump Tower to Trump, then the Republican candidate, the first signs were promising. Despite dismissing Zelenskyy days earlier as “the greatest salesman in history” for convincing the US to bankroll his defence of Ukraine, Trump responded with “interest”, said people who were present in the September meeting.

Little did they imagine just how ruthlessly interested Trump would be in Ukraine’s minerals — or how catastrophic the negotiations would threaten to become for Kyiv, its president, and the prospects of holding off Russia’s invasion.

The breakthrough finally came when Trump and Zelenskyy met again, seven months later, this time in the splendour of the Vatican. Ukraine’s leader said he told the US president there he was ready to seal the deal. “In fact, now we have the first result of the Vatican meeting, which makes it truly historic,” he said on Thursday.

But the rancour they had to overcome was considerable: months of fraught negotiations, an explosive Oval Office exchange, and countless near-miss moments when talks almost collapsed — right up to the final few hours.

The deal, signed on Wednesday by US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister Yulia Svyrydenko in Washington, secures US involvement in developing Kyiv’s natural resources. But its potential significance is far greater.

Kyiv’s officials and many analysts see the move as part of Ukraine’s broader effort to maintain strategic ties with Washington as Trump pushes to end the conflict.

The agreement’s origins trace back to early last summer, when Zelenskyy tasked his advisers with devising a strategy to secure long-term American backing and swing momentum in the war away from Russia.

The pitch for a five-point “victory plan” combined security proposals with strategic economic partnerships. One official close to Zelenskyy said it was “an attempt to change the trajectory of the war and bring Russia to the table . . . Zelenskyy really believes in it”.

Point four called for opening up Ukraine’s natural resources to western investment, a concept partly inspired by Republican senator Lindsey Graham. In exchange, Kyiv was meant to secure bigger, better and more American military support to defend itself, if not retake lost land.

Then-president Joe Biden showed little enthusiasm for providing huge amounts of additional western weaponry, fearing such a surge could deplete US stocks or lead to Russian escalation. The White House team did, however, show interest in a joint economic deal.

After Zelenskyy sold the idea to Trump in Trump Tower, the self-proclaimed master dealmaker was even more intrigued by the economic angle and the idea of securing rare earths in exchange for continued US aid.

Given his interest, and polls showing Trump was ahead in the US presidential race, Zelenskyy’s team opted to hold off on exploring a minerals deal with Biden’s government, and decided instead to maximise potential leverage with any incoming Trump administration.

The newly inaugurated president Trump took two weeks to publicly link US support with access to Ukraine’s mineral wealth, citing a $500bn figure as the compensation due for past American aid — a multiple of the actual support provided. “They have great rare earth. And I want security of the rare earth,” Trump said.

Senior Ukrainian officials were alarmed by the scale of the demand — and even more worried by the lack of any mention of future US military support. Still, Kyiv pursued talks, hoping to extract better terms and stay in Trump’s good graces.

A few days later Bessent stepped off an overnight train in Kyiv with a draft proposal granting the US ownership of 50 per cent of the rights to Ukraine’s rare earths and critical minerals — with no commitment to future military or financial assistance.

Zelenskyy had an hour’s notice of the document and saw it ahead of his meeting with Bessent only thanks to the US ambassador in Kyiv, Bridget Brink, who dashed across the capital with a copy.

She briefed him on its contents, which had yet to be translated into his native language, warning Bessent expected him to sign it before he returned to Washington.

But Zelenskyy is a politician who does not take well to ultimatums. During their meeting, the raised voices of Zelenskyy and Bessent could be heard through the heavy, gilded doors. “He was very angry,” a Ukrainian official who stood nearby said of the president.

When they emerged, Zelenskyy said he would not sign at that time. “It is not in our interests today . . . not in the interests of sovereign Ukraine,” he said. His main concern was the total lack of security guarantees.

European and Ukrainian officials pondered whether Zelenskyy had made a strategic error by not being more explicit about his goals from the outset. “It was written as a lure for Trump, clearly,” said a senior European official. “But the lack of detail meant Trump could essentially name his price.”

A senior Ukrainian official said Zelenskyy should have been “crystal clear” about the link “to future guarantees of [American] security assistance”.

Here’s how it ends.

The deal still requires ratification by Ukraine’s parliament — and work on implementation remains. Whether the agreement holds could depend not only on the terms still to be finalised, but on how long Zelenskyy and Trump can manage their fraught relationship.

“We weren’t choosing between good and bad — we were choosing between bad and worse,” said Inna Sovsun, an opposition MP.

“What we got,” she added, “is better than the initial offer.”

Muck more at the link.

You’ll notice the Ukrainians had a much better understanding of how Biden and his team approached their defense against Russia’s genocidal re-invasion and the likelihood of Trump being reelected than most American pundits and commentators.

🇺🇦🇺🇸👀

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— MAKS 24 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 7:54 AM

So apparently, the U.S. is sending “retired” F-16s from the Davis-Monthan boneyard to Ukraine – supposedly just for spare parts to repair existing jets. Sure… just spare parts, nothing to see here.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 1:19 PM

Back to Ukraine.

I’m going to put this here, because I’m not sure where else to put it:

One of the chapters of the Anonymous activist movement seems to have identified several members of the Russian APT28 (Fancy Bear / Unit 26165 / Unit 74455) group justpaste.it/k3tr1

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— Anton Shekhovtsov (@shekhovtsov.substack.com) May 1, 2025 at 12:41 PM

Ukrainian Air Force releases video of MiG-29 pilot shooting down Russian/Iranian suicide drone.

The drone, a Shahed, was flying in the morning, so the target was clearly visible.

The pilot has already shot down more than 20 enemy targets, the air force said.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 3:01 AM

Interception of an aerial target by Ukrainian F-16

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 4:26 AM

HIMARS strike on the Russian BUK-M3 air defense system. t.me/Khortytsky_w…

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 3:40 AM

Obligatory:

In April alone, Russia dropped over 5,000 guided aerial bombs, around 1,200 of them on Kursk region.

Throughout 2024, Russian forces used approximately 40,000 guided bombs, and since the beginning of 2025 — already over 15,000.

Just another clear sign that Russia “definitely wants peace.”

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 1:59 PM

Zaporizhzhia:

Zaporizhzhia right now ‼️

Russia struck the city with multiple drones.

At least 1 person was killed, and 3 others were injured.

There are people under the rubble.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 4:08 PM

Horrific moment of russian drone strike on an apartment building in Zaporizhzhia tonight

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 4:52 PM

Kharkiv:

This bag of nails was inside the russian drone that struck Kharkiv

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 10:24 AM

One of the Russian drones destroyed a gas station in Kharkiv yesterday.

Why, just why?

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 6:49 AM

Odesa:

Overnight attack by fascist Russia on Ukraine’s Odesa kills 2, wounds 5. The Kremlin continues to systematically attack Ukrainian cities, while expecting Ukraine to adhere to a unilaterally-declared Russian ceasefire to protect Russia from attack during its Victory Day holidays.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 3:01 AM

At night, Russia attacked Odesa using Shaheds.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 4:34 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Numerous reports are emerging from Crimea regarding widespread drone attacks across multiple locations, significantly exceeding the usual volume observed during such events. Reports originate from Sevastopol, Kacha, Yevpatoriya, Saky, Dzhankoy, and several other locations.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 6:58 PM

💥New video of the drone strikes on valuable Russian equipment in Crimea: ST-68, Obzor-3 and Imbir radar stations as well as several launchers of the S-300V air defense system.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 1:32 PM

Belgorod Oblast, Russia:

Something is burning in the Belgorod region of russia 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 3:27 PM

Morning in Belgorod doesn’t start with coffee.
Since dawn, some unidentified FPVs have been circling the region and “clearing” the roads.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 7:16 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,162: When Is a Deal a Shakedown?Post + Comments (8)

All You Fascists Are Bound To Lose (Squishable Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  May 1, 20258:55 pm| 105 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Cole is on the road today.  I think!

A little musical accompaniment to a wide open thread.  I want to credit the person who sent this video to me with a note that says “Music for Our Times” but I’m not sure if the name he used is his name or his nym.  Not risking putting up a real name.

Update:  h/t realbtl

All You Fascists Are Bound To Lose (Squishable Open Thread)Post + Comments (105)

Steve the ultimate lurker – May Day CO State Capitol (Open Thread)

by WaterGirl|  May 1, 20256:40 pm| 20 Comments

This post is in: On The Road, Open Threads, Photo Blogging

Today’s rally 3:30pm Mountain time.
Scheduled 3:00 to 5:00

A bit smaller today, but still some(?) thousands. There is a large flat area up at the top, so people that can’t be seen in the photo. Lots of horn honking!

Steve the ultimate lurker - May Day CO State Capitol
Denver, COMay 1, 2025

Steve the ultimate lurker – May Day CO State Capitol (Open Thread)Post + Comments (20)

Up Next, Australia Elections!

by WaterGirl|  May 1, 20254:58 pm| 127 Comments

This post is in: Australia, Open Threads, Politics

In the wee hours after the elections in Canada on Tuesday, Pete Downunder was kind enough to share kind of a primer on the upcoming Australia elections.  I found it super helpful, so with his permission I’ve copied it here.

So study up!   If you want to know what’s up before this Saturday morning when results start coming in. :-)

I will have an Australia election results  post up at 5am on Saturday morning (blog time) where Pete Downunder has offered to kind of live blog the results in real time as they start coming in.  All of our other Australia peeps are invited to chime in, as well, and share what you know or you think you know!

AUSTRALIA PRIMER

Now that Canada has shown the way, we’re up next on 3 May (our time: GMT +10). At the risk of repeating what many of you (and all Aussie Jackals) know, we have a house and a senate. Unless the party with a house majority also has a senate majority the senate acts as a restraint on the majority.

The leader of the majority party in the house is the Prime Minister. To confuse Americans further, the left-ish (or more accurately slightly less right-ish) party is Labor (spelled the US way not the UK way for historical reasons too boring to go into here.) Its colour is Red. The center to far right-ish party is misleadingly named the Liberal Party (again for boring historical reasons). Because the Liberals have an alliance with a right-leaning country based party called the National Party they are usually referred to as the Coalition or the LNP. Their colour is Blue.

They are the major parties. The main minority party is the left leaning Green party whose colour, surprise, is Green. There is also a group of independents whose backgrounds vary but tend to be center to center left but who have in common support from an environmental funder. Their colour is Teal and collectively they are called the Teals but they are not a party and each is an independent individual. Some, but not all, are defectors from the LNP. There are also a scattering of minor parties on the right but they are increasingly irrelevant.

We have mandatory preferential voting. Not only must you vote but you must number all the boxes in order of preference. In my electorate the ballot has 8 boxes, one each for Labor, LNP and Greens and 5 more for some minor parties and independents. My electorate is one of few with a Green incumbent but the LNP is desperate to get the seat back.

After all the votes are cast, if no one has 50% + 1, the election officials then go through those with the lowest votes as #1 and allocate their preferences as shown on the ballots. This is repeated until one candidate exceeds 50%. For example in my electorate Labor wants its voters to vote Labor #1 and Greens #2 and LNP #8 and the rest are more or less random. The Greens ask their voters to do basically the same but with Greens #1 and Labor # 2 and LNP last. Thus a major party candidate who can’t win on their own can get over the line with other party preferences. There will be quiz on this next week.

At the moment Labor holds a majority with Anthony Albonese (known universally as Albo) as PM. The Guardian newspaper recently ran a fun contest to chose the invertebrate of the year. I nominated Albo as he is totally spineless. Good hearted but useless. The Opposition is a former cop named Peter Dutton who is far right but not insane like Trump. He is really unlikable. Up until a few months ago, Australian polling was putting LNP in front, but the Trump madness has, like in Canada, turned things around and Labor now barely leads in the polls. As in Canada it could be a minority Labor government with the Greens and Teals holding the balance of power.

That is more than you wanted to know about Australian elections. I’ll will take questions but I don’t want to always see the same hands. I also welcome additions and corrections from other Aussies.

I believe Australia is 10 hours different from us, but Pete is up right now (it’s the wee hours of Friday morning in Australia and he will be on this thread in case anyone has any questions or wants to talk about the election.

I have family in Australia, so this is even more personal for me, but in the current environment, we all have to follow a lot of things that we might have paid less attention to in the past.

Update:

Surveys and Public Opinion Polls

Up Next, Australia Elections!Post + Comments (127)

No Data, No Source, Just Vibes

by WaterGirl|  May 1, 20251:59 pm| 288 Comments

This post is in: Democratic Politics, Open Threads, Politics

I have sort of been a “normie” in the past week or so because of a big push for one of my clients, a big undertaking at home, and the start of gardening season.

So I haven’t had time to read all the newsletters and substances and articles in the news.

But vibes?   Even normies have time for vibes, and it sure feels like something is shifting.

Cue 100 people telling me I’m wrong?  I hope not, but the chips will fall where they may.

Open thread.

No Data, No Source, Just VibesPost + Comments (288)

May Day (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  May 1, 202511:05 am| 157 Comments

This post is in: C.R.E.A.M., Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

May Day poster with raised fists representing worker power

Anyone going to a May Day protest today? (Wish I could, but I can’t.)

Here’s a link to Indivisible’s May Day page, which has a searchable list of more than 1,000 events. Here’s how the organization describes the purpose on this May Day:

Trump and his billionaire profiteers are trying to create a race to the bottom—on wages, on benefits, on dignity itself. This May Day we are fighting back. We are demanding a country that puts our families over their fortunes—public schools over private profits, healthcare over hedge funds, prosperity over free market politics.

Although much of the world celebrates International Workers Day on May 1st, May Day fell out of favor in the USA because Cold Warriors detected a whiff of commie. I agree with the LOL GOP fellow from Bluesky when he says, “if the GOP gets to be led by a KGB agent, we get May Day back.”

***

Like many year-round Florida residents, I dread summer. May 1st for me marks the end of stone crab season (boo!) and a preview of the long, hot season of suffocating heat and humidity to come. And possibly hurricanes. So, not a fan.

But on the bright side, this is the time of year when lots of snowbirds decamp, so there’s less traffic and competition for seats at the local tiki bars. Bill informs me that our MAGA dope neighbor is migrating back home soon, so I’ve got that going for me.

***

Here’s one for the “You’ve Got to Hand It to Them” file:

sometimes you do have to hand it to them

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— Marisa Kabas (@marisakabas.bsky.social) May 1, 2025 at 9:05 AM

Backstory in case you missed it: When asked about possible toy shortages due to his dumb tariff pissing contest with China, Trump said, “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.” (YouTube)

Yep, this person actually said that.

Open thread.

May Day (Open Thread)Post + Comments (157)

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