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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Jack be nimble, jack be quick, hurry up and indict this prick.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

There are more Russians standing up to Putin than Republicans.

If you thought you’d already seen people saying the stupidest things possible on the internet, prepare yourselves.

Wow, you are pre-disappointed. How surprising.

If you voted for Trump, you don’t get to speak about ethics, morals, or rule of law.

You don’t get to peddle hatred on saturday and offer condolences on sunday.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

Trumpflation is an intolerable hardship for every American, and it’s Trump’s fault.

We are learning that “working class” means “white” for way too many people.

Republicans don’t want a speaker to lead them; they want a hostage.

Stay strong, because they are weak.

Jesus, Mary, & Joseph how is that election even close?

We are builders in a constant struggle with destroyers. keep building.

The party of Reagan has become the party of Putin.

We need to vote them all out and restore sane Democratic government.

“A king is only a king if we bow down.” – Rev. William Barber

You are either for trump or for democracy. Pick one.

We cannot abandon the truth and remain a free nation.

“Alexa, change the president.”

Compromise? There is no middle ground between a firefighter and an arsonist.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Friday Morning Open Thread (and ActBlue FYI)

by WaterGirl|  September 26, 202510:45 am| 58 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Politics

[I really don’t expect much, if any, discussion of this, but I did want to let everyone know, and this seemed like the most effective way to do that.  We have a lot of BJ peeps who are politically active, who support new candidates, etc, and I think it’s helpful to get the word out in case this is a useful resource.]

TOTALLY OPEN THREAD, feel free to skip to comments if you don’t care about ActBlue, and even if you do!


One stop shopping?

Act Blue Expands Its Mission 

ActBlue started out as a clearinghouse so Democrats could donate easily to the candidates of their choice. It worked well and has been the biggest clearinghouse for Democrats for multiple decades. It works especially well for smaller campaigns that don’t have the infrastructure big campaigns do.

Now ActBlue is expanding. It bought Impactive, a company that has tools for canvassing, phone banking, and other forms of voter outreach. The goal is to become one-stop-shopping for small-to-medium campaigns, like House campaigns and many state offices. This will give Democratic candidates for many lower offices tools that previously were available only to top-of-the-line campaigns.

ActBlue has become a sufficiently powerful player that Donald Trump is starting to go after it. He claims (with no evidence, as usual) that ActBlue is not doing enough to stop straw-man donations from foreign sources. Specifically, it is illegal for a foreign person, organization, or government to give money to an American citizen with the specific purpose that the American then donate the money to a political campaign, thus making it look like the donation is legal. There is no evidence that this is happening at more than a microscopic scale, if that much. It is like talking about noncitizen voting. There is almost none of it but Republicans make it sound like it is an epidemic.

Democrats are asking why Trump is not going after WinRed, the Republicans’ donation clearing house. It is worth noting that ActBlue is a nonprofit and very efficient whereas WinRed is a commercial, profit-making company and more interested in its take from the donations than what the campaigns get.

from electoral-vote.com a few days ago.

h/t dnfree

Totally open thread.

Friday Morning Open Thread (and ActBlue FYI)Post + Comments (58)

First They Came for Jim Comey and I Said Nothing Because He Has Caused So Much Damage In the Past

by WaterGirl|  September 26, 20259:35 am| 136 Comments

This post is in: Democratic Politics, Democratic Response to Trump 2.0, Open Threads, Political Action, Politics

Most of us here despise James Comey for the terrible damage he has caused.

But if we say he’s getting what he deserved, we are making a dangerous mistake.  Today it’s James Comey.  Tomorrow it’s Hillary or Andy McCabe (again) or Marc Elias or a Democrat who is running for office.

The chorus of all who believe in the rule of law should be the same –

This is abuse of power.   This is weaponization of government.   This is unacceptable.

This is a chance to unite.  Let’s take it.

 

First They Came for Jim Comey and I Said Nothing Because He Has Caused So Much Damage In the PastPost + Comments (136)

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  September 26, 20256:35 am| 175 Comments

This post is in: Gun Issues, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Democrats are standing up to Trump, and now he's threatening to lay off hundreds of thousands of Americans and burn down the United States government.
It's dangerous, irresponsible madness. Trump is failing, unpopular and losing his sh-t. Dems are right to fight for something better than this.

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— Simon Rosenberg (@simonwdc.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 6:44 AM

===

The Trump Administration does not do stupid things as part of a genius plan. The Trump Administration does stupid things because it is, in many ways, stupid. Evil and stupid so often go together like peanut butter and jelly, but, you know, evil and stupid.

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— Jane Coaston (@janecoaston.bsky.social) September 23, 2025 at 10:55 AM

It’s worse! The evil genius who is more powerful bc smart & so more dangerous is just a myth. A fiction.
The real danger of evil people is they put their stupidity into action & make the whole objective situation irrational & incoherent & really hard for smart, responsible people to respond to!

— Jonathan Heaps (@jonathanrheaps.bsky.social) September 23, 2025 at 2:12 PM

It’s much worse. Because genius has a strategy, stupidity has a cause.

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— Jane Coaston (@janecoaston.bsky.social) September 23, 2025 at 2:13 PM

Stages on the Trump Retribution Tour:

Ed Martin’s intimidation tactics against FBI agent who responded to Sandy Hook is too much even for Todd Blanche.
edition.cnn.com/2025/09/24/p…

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— Barb McQuade (@barbmcquade.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 6:48 AM

===

REMINDER: James Comey's daughter, Maurene Comey, who was one of the lead attorneys that prosecuted Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell, was wrongfully terminated from the DOJ just one week before Todd Blanche cozily met with Maxwell.
Now, her father is being vindictively prosecuted by Trump.

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— Katie Phang (@katiephang.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 8:22 PM

TGIFriday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (175)

Late Night Open Thread: Grifting Harpy, Sweaty Thug

by Anne Laurie|  September 26, 20252:39 am| 52 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Trump Crime Cartel

Aside from the usual corruption never let these guys scream 'stolen valor' because a Dem mispronounces one of his ribbons again. Noem has never served, dresses up in SEAL kit, and has stolen housing reserved for military officers so she can fuck her psycho racist boyfriend who really runs DHS.

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— Zeddy (@zeddary.bsky.social) September 23, 2025 at 8:42 AM

Ben Terris (remember him at WaPo?), now at NYMag, asks “Who really runs DHS?”:

… Noem, 53, is the public face of the department, bringing reality-star energy to an office that was created in the aftermath of 9/11 to coordinate America’s preparedness for a terrorist attack. She has hopped across the country in various uniforms — as a Border Patrol agent, in an Immigration and Customs Enforcement flak jacket, as a Coast Guard firefighter — mean-mugging her way onto television screens and decorating the halls of DHS buildings with action shots of her in the field. Most notoriously, when the U.S. sent 238 migrants to El Salvador’s Terrorism Confinement Center — described as a “hell on earth,” where alleged human-rights abuses are rampant — she filmed a video in front of a cage of inmates wearing a $50,000 Rolex. “We looked at her and we thought we were going to get out,” Edicson Quintero Chacón, a detainee at the time, told me. “I mean, we had a sense of joy.” Her reasons for visiting CECOT were more self-interested. She is so skilled at getting in front of the camera that the New York Times has called her the head of the “Department of Homeland Publicity,” while her liberal detractors have taken to calling her “ICE Barbie.”

Since the passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in July, she has been overseeing a massive influx of some $170 billion that Republicans set aside for combating illegal immigration, money that will go toward expanding DHS’s detention capacity to 100,000 beds (ICE is currently holding more than 58,000 detainees), increasing the size of ICE (in part by offering up to $50,000 in signing bonuses and eliminating the age cap on new hires), bolstering law-enforcement border support, and underwriting a propaganda campaign that has clogged social media with everything from Zero Dark Thirty–style PSAs to paeans to white-nationalist mythology. Under Noem, it is DHS, not the Justice Department, that has emerged as Trump’s most devastating and visible weapon against the right’s perceived enemies. “She’s going to play a key role in advancing Donald Trump’s effort to consolidate the powers of the presidency,” a former DHS official told me. “I think by the end of this administration, if she stays the whole time, she’s likely to become the warden of the police state.”

On paper, Noem sits at the top of this empire. In practice, power over immigration policy is fractured, shaped by competing factions, starting with deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, who has vowed in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s assassination to destroy nameless forces that have conspired against the right — the long arm of law enforcement, he warned them, “will be used to find you, will be used to take away your money, take away your power, and, if you’ve broken the law, to take away your freedom.” Noem will be among those at the forefront of any such effort, surrounded by a tight inner circle that can be difficult to penetrate and often impossible to work with. “The culture over there is terrible,” the administration official told me. “People are scared shitless of Corey.”

Lewandowski has been integral to Noem’s rise, her right hand as they run roughshod over the rule of law and, like so many in Trump’s Cabinet, position themselves for a post-Trump future. Lewandowski is not only surreptitiously co-leading DHS without congressional approval but has brought Trumpworld’s manically pugnacious style to the department and drawn out some of Noem’s own pugnacious predilections, too. After all, Trump’s immigration policies, while broadly unpopular with those who oppose masked men snatching people off the streets and spiriting them away to brutal foreign prisons, remain popular among Republicans. Frank Luntz, the veteran political consultant, thinks this is at least partly owed to Noem, who adds the necessary stage presence to Lewandowski’s muscle and Miller’s brain. “She is probably the administration’s best spokeswoman,” he told me. “The only thing that bothers me is that her name is not mentioned as a potential 2028 Republican Party leader. She’s underestimated.”

******
The story of Noem and Lewandowski goes back to 2019 on a remote Pacific island off northwestern British Columbia. They had arrived via helicopter as guests of the multimillionaire Republican donor Foster Friess, who was hosting his annual deep-sea-fishing fundraiser. Noem was a rising conservative star recently elected governor of South Dakota after an eight-year stint in Congress, while Lewandowski was the former campaign manager for Trump. She once wrote that she “wasn’t emotional about anything.” He once told the Washington Post, “I’m like a robot. I literally have no emotions.”

Lewandowski had come to Trump’s 2016 campaign with an unconventional résumé: real-estate agent, New Hampshire marine-patrol officer, Koch Brothers operative, congressional aide who once brought a gun to the Capitol. His longtime political ally David Bossie told the Times in 2015 that Lewandowski was “as anti-Establishment” as Trump. “Corey is driven by an incredible desire to please and be loved by those in positions of power, all while fighting against convention and normal ways of operating,” a campaign operative who worked with Lewandowski told me. He quickly became known for two things: getting arrested after grabbing the arm of a female reporter at a press conference (charges were dropped) and a political strategy that amounted to “Let Trump be Trump.” He lost his job after allies and donors complained he was running an undisciplined campaign.

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In the years that followed, Lewandowski would float in and out of Trumpworld but never fall completely out of Trump’s orbit. “The president has always been loyal to people he connects with successful phases of his life,” former Trump adviser Jason Miller told me. Lewandowski’s aggression was also useful. “He is not intimidated by the prospect of a fight and will work doggedly to achieve his pursuits,” a different campaign operative told me. “He is a one-of-a-kind operator, for better or worse.” In response to a request for comment, Lewandowski wrote, “Instead of reviewing the newest wine bar in Chelsea the New York Magazine has degraded itself.”…

Noem stayed close with Lewandowski after the trip and eventually brought him on as an adviser. He was, according to a former staffer from the time, “intimately involved in her governorship.” He helped decide which television shows to go on and encouraged her never to do panels with other guests because she was too big of a star to share the spotlight. He joined her on phone calls with senior staff, dictating which events she should attend in the state. “It bothered people because what did he even know about South Dakota?” the former staffer said.

But Lewandowski seemed like he was already thinking beyond state politics. Early on in their relationship, Lewandowski brought Noem on a swing through New York to talk to financiers who might be helpful were she ever to run for higher office. In one meeting, they appeared to have such a close connection that their millionaire host called a mutual acquaintance afterward to ask if the two were dating. The mutual acquaintance called around and reported back it appeared that they were. They both were, and remain, married, though Noem’s husband, Bryon Noem, lives in South Dakota. Over the years, there have been plenty of tabloid reports about Noem and Lewandowski’s relationship. “Everybody knows they’re together. Can I prove it? No, but they’re together,” the administration official said. A FEMA official called it the “worst-kept secret in D.C.” In 2019, after a conservative conference in Doral, Florida, a bunch of VIPs were on the patio smoking cigars and drinking. Then Noem came out and sat on Lewandowski’s lap. “I remember it being just very romantic,” said a person present. “Interactions that you would expect of a romantic couple, not of a political consultant and the client.” They added, “It was very clear that they were together.”…

Beth Hollatz, a senior adviser during Noem’s governorship and a close friend, said Noem was driven by religious faith and love of her family. “People think she’s coldhearted,” she said. “But she’s not at all.” Others said Noem was virtually an empty vessel. “Beyond just basic conservative principles, she never had an original policy idea or thought at all,” a former campaign aide told me. “She never read books or newspapers or newsmagazines, had zero interest in policy.” Like Trump, her management style, the aide said, “revolves around whoever is the last person to speak to her.” She had a nickname among staff, “Governor Text Message,” because she did much of her managing via phone.

Noem’s tenure as governor was dotted with oddities. She was found by South Dakota ethics board to have intervened in her daughter’s application to become a state-sanctioned real-estate appraiser. She came up with the idea for a $1.4 million anti-drug campaign that resulted in the tagline “Meth. We’re on it.” She earned a reputation among lawmakers for enjoying the perks of office a little too much, traveling often on the state’s plane and spending taxpayer money on a hunting trip to Canada and a trip to Las Vegas, among other destinations with no obvious bearing on state business. Taffy Howard, a Republican state senator who clashed with Noem over the years, said she and some of her fellow lawmakers tried to force Noem to reveal how much money was being spent on her travel but were told revealing that information would be a security issue. “You could not oppose her without her taking it personally,” Howard said…

By the time the 2024 election cycle began, Noem was being talked about as a possible vice-presidential pick for Trump. In South Dakota political circles, her higher ambitions were not a surprise. “Every decision she makes is to help her, help her career, help her get a better job down the road,” said Tom Brunner, a conservative who used to serve with Noem in the state legislature. “She would sell her soul in a heartbeat to get a better job.” Howard said, “She’s a petty, vindictive person who is only ever out for herself. She doesn’t do anything unless it’s calculated to better her political aspirations.”

In February 2024, Noem met with Trump to make her case to join the ticket. She was accompanied by Lewandowski, who came prepared with polling data showing how popular she was in midwestern swing states, according to the book Revenge, by the journalist Alex Isenstadt. But there were obstacles to her getting the job — the foremost being Lewandowski himself. People close to Trump worried about their alleged romantic involvement, Isenstadt wrote. Trump’s advisers had witnessed Lewandowski slapping Noem on the butt, and Trump would slyly refer to Noem as Lewandowski’s “girlfriend.” Noem’s chances at securing the No. 2 spot were ultimately buried by the publication of her second memoir, No Going Back, in which she told the unfortunate story of shooting a disobedient puppy named Cricket on the family farm. “That’s not good at all,” Trump told his son Don Jr., according to Revenge. “Even you wouldn’t kill a dog, and you kill everything.”

With the VP job now off the table, Lewandowski and Noem had another idea: Perhaps she could be the general in charge of immigration. By August, Trump had brought Lewandowski back to his campaign, but he lost a power struggle with co–campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles and was demoted to surrogate work. In the meantime, he mounted a whisper campaign on behalf of Noem, enlisting the help of people like Tom Homan, who would go on to become Trump’s border czar, to talk up her campaign to lead DHS. After Trump won the election, he asked Noem if she might be interested in a Cabinet position, perhaps with the Department of Interior or Agriculture. “I said, ‘Sir, I’d like to be considered for Homeland Security,’” Noem recalled during a speech this summer on Capitol Hill. “And he said, ‘Why would you want to do that?’” The answer she gave: “Because it’s your No. 1 priority.” Noem was easily confirmed on a 59-34 vote…

When Trump picked Noem for DHS, Lewandowski hoped he would be named chief of staff. It wasn’t in the cards. The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this year that the tabloid reports of his romantic relationship with Noem were a sticking point. But apparently there were other issues as well. In September, the Daily Mail reported the existence of a memo written by Richard McComb, the chief security officer at DHS at the time, containing a litany of concerns regarding Lewandowski and questioning whether he should have a top-secret security clearance. Lewandowski had, according to the memo, been accused of receiving $50,000 directly from the Chinese Communist Party as well as money from Israel’s Likud Party without disclosing the payments on his DHS background form. (A DHS official denied these claims.)

The memo also detailed known instances of Lewandowski’s entanglements with the law, including an alleged incident of unwanted sexual contact. In 2021, a woman accused Lewandowski of touching her inappropriately and relentlessly making sexually explicit comments at a charity dinner in Las Vegas. Lewandowski was charged and cut a plea deal in 2022 that resulted in eight hours of impulse-control counseling and 50 hours of community service. In exchange, Lewandowski did not have to admit guilt. The same month he issued the memo, McComb resigned from DHS.

After losing out on the chief-of-staff job, Lewandowski finagled the special-government-employee designation, which allowed him to work 130 days a year for the DHS while maintaining a business with outside clients. Best of all, he wouldn’t have to disclose those clients, making it difficult to determine if they might present a conflict of interest with the work he was doing for the government. There have been red flags. In March, DHS skipped a fully competitive bidding process for the first part of a $200 million ad campaign, giving part of the contract to a firm run by a person with close professional ties to Lewandowski. Furthermore, few people in the administration believe he was keeping an accurate tally of the days he worked. In mid-August, after months of working closely with Noem, Axios reported that Lewandowski wasn’t even close to his 130-day allotment. The report said that he was believed to be entering buildings with other staffers so he wouldn’t have to swipe himself in and that he didn’t always use his government email or phone so that his digital trail was harder to follow. The number he gave — precisely 69 days — was like a bad joke conjured up by Elon Musk. “That number was Corey’s way of saying, ‘Fuck you,’” a former DHS official said…

… Noem wants to be as closely associated with Trump’s draconian regime as possible. Once, according to a former DHS official, Noem grew angry with Homan after he went on television to discuss immigration news, believing that he had “gotten out front” of her on the issue. “She tried to put a comms blackout on him,” another administration official told me. “She ordered that he not go on TV; she ordered that basically no one go on TV in the entire Homeland lane.” Noem tried to tell Homan that he worked for her. He told her he worked for the White House. Her relationship with Homan got so sour that, at a meeting earlier this year, Trump asked Homan whether he needed to intervene. “No, sir, we can work this out,” Homan responded. The White House told me, “The President’s entire team — including Border Czar Tom Homan and Secretary Noem — are all in lockstep.”…

(This does make one wonder why reports of Tom Homan accepting a $50,000 bribe have just recently been leaked, yes?)

Late Night Open Thread: Grifting Harpy, Sweaty ThugPost + Comments (52)

War for Ukraine Day 1,309: Another Day Another Set of Air Interdictions

by Adam L Silverman|  September 25, 20259:05 pm| 30 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

First off, congratulations to Joelle and John. May they have many happy years together.

Russian fighters had to be intercepted in both Europe and the US today.

Hungarian o.O
Hungarian Gripens intercepted russian fighter jets over Baltics.
This is… unexpected.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 1:44 PM

🇺🇸✈️ U.S. fighter jets scrambled to intercept Russian military aircraft near Alaska. Two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers and two Su-35 fighter jets flew in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, which is international airspace bordering U.S. and Canadian airspace, — CBS News

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— Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 8:41 AM

You failed the test <3

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 2:56 PM

The only Russian fighters or bombers that were actually shot down, however, were by the Ukrainians:

The Ukrainian Air Force reports the downing of a Russian Su-34.

At around 04:00 on September 25, 2025 a Russian Su-34 aircraft was shot down while carrying out strikes on the city of Zaporizhzhia.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 2:26 AM

Earlier today, Ukrainian authorities announced the downing of a Russian Su-34.

Now, a Russian propaganda blogger with ties to the aviation community has confirmed it.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 6:38 AM

Probe for mush…

President Zelenskyy did not make an address today.

First Lady Zelenska participated in a special event on Ukrainian studies. Video below, English write up after the jump.

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American Universities Joined the Global Coalition of Ukrainian Studies – Olena Zelenska

25 September 2025 – 14:41

On the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, Ukraine’s First Lady, Olena Zelenska, took part in a special event, “Ukrainian Studies Now: Building Global Alliances,” dedicated to the first anniversary of the Global Coalition of Ukrainian Studies.

“Ukrainian Studies today is not just about the past. It is a way to understand the modern world, its dynamics, and its challenges. Over the past year, we have seen that the demand for studying Ukraine is not decreasing – it is only growing. Knowledge is what helps dispel myths and counter disinformation,” Olena Zelenska emphasized.

During the event, memoranda were signed to mark the joining of Arizona State University, Columbia University, and the Shevchenko Scientific Society in the U.S. to the Global Coalition of Ukrainian Studies. Memoranda were also exchanged with the University of Notre Dame and Manor College.

The First Lady expressed her gratitude to the educational institutions, the Ukrainian Embassy, and everyone involved for their cooperation.

The event also included a panel discussion on “How Academic Diplomacy Changes Global Perceptions of Ukraine,” featuring scholars and experts from the United States, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine.

“In times of fakes and disinformation, in a world flooded with informational ‘fast food,’ it is extremely important to learn facts not only from online clips, but from original sources and scholarly works – carefully, deeply, and thoroughly. Like any knowledge, this enriches all participants. Those who learn more about Ukraine’s path will better understand themselves, their country, and the world,” Olena Zelenska noted.

The Global Coalition of Ukrainian Studies was launched last year with the support of the First Lady of Ukraine. Over the past year, the coalition has brought together around 100 universities worldwide, 15 of which have already become official members. Participants include institutions from Finland, South Africa, the Czech Republic, Austria, Canada, Korea, Italy, Japan, and the United States. The coalition works on creating joint educational courses, supporting academic exchanges, and opening Ukrainian studies centers, shaping a new understanding of Ukraine in the world.

Georgia:

Day 302 of uninterrupted, nationwide protests in Georgia. Rustaveli Avenue is blocked again. ✅ 🇬🇪🇺🇦

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 12:55 PM

Today on Rustaveli Avenue there are more UK and German flags than usual. Both ambassadors have been summoned by GD. As part of its ongoing smear campaign against the EU, GD accuses these countries of “violating the Vienna Convention” and “encouraging the radical agenda.” 🇬🇧🇩🇪🇺🇦

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 1:25 PM

Georgian Dream has summoned the UK Ambassador to Georgia, Gareth Ward, to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Gareth Ward did not make any comments to the media.

On September 24, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, summoned the German Ambassador, Peter Fischer.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 3:59 AM

🟥This time, the #UK Ambassador has been summoned to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Gareth Ward, the United Kingdom’s Ambassador to #Georgia, is already at the Ministry for the meeting.
The Ambassador did not make any comments to the media before entering.

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— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) September 25, 2025 at 3:53 AM

Every time we receive support from our partners (such as sanctions announcement), their respective flags show up prominently at the protest that evening.

Today, 🇩🇪 and the 🇬🇧 are prominent in support of @Diplo_Peter and @GarethWardUK @UKinGeorgia ✊🏻

#GeorgiaProtests Day 302.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 1:36 PM

And, well, the flag of Ukraine is always there prominently, of course! ✊🏻 🇺🇦

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 1:40 PM

Today’s protests are so fundamentally heavier in spirit than last year’s Russian law protests that I have a very hard time realizing it’s only a difference of, like, fifteen months.

I guess that’s a natural progression if we want a successful outcome.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 6:59 PM

In New York, on the sidelines of the UN, Georgian Dream FM Maka Bochorishvili met with Belarus FM Maxim Ryzhenkov.

Per Belarus MFA, talks focused on deepening trade, economic, humanitarian & cultural ties.

Ryzhenkov also met FMs of Ghana, Uganda & Venezuela.

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:09 AM

I’m absolutely sure that the Georgian Dream cannot last for too long. They just don’t have what it takes to stabilize a dictatorship.

However, the following weeks will most likely determine whether taking our country back is a short-term possibility.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 3:51 AM

Somebody desecrated the memorial to Georgians fallen in Ukraine, itself located at the Heroes Memorial.

No one detained or identified.

Days ago, they conducted a special operation in western Georgia to seize the student girl who wrote “Russian Dream” on a GD campaign banner.

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 4:43 AM

The regime continues to face obstacles wherever it goes. School teachers in Khashuri criticize the campaigning local GD guy for a new school that just vanished despite money having been allocated.

The suited-up GD, completely out of touch, told one lady “You aren’t even a teacher!”

📷 Mozaika

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 7:13 AM

A bomb threat forced the Supreme Court to evacuate. Yesterday, the same happened at the Tbilisi City Court.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 7:21 AM

BEHOLD, people! We have the first-ever GD-supportive gathering in the 11 months of protests!

As you know, it’s crucial for regimes to rally the public for supportive gatherings to project dominance and power. Yet, the Georgian Dream has had none. 1/3

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 9:40 AM

Moreover, they couldn’t even bring out their party-affiliated people to light up the Christmas tree in December, to which they had attributed a stabilizing importance. 2/3

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 9:40 AM

And now, just a bunch of Glovo delivery guys drive around with GD party flags.

The world has seen so much, and people still refer to the UNM’s “barely filled stadium” just before their 2012 loss,

BUT WHAT ON EARTH IS THIS DISGRACE! I almost feel bad for them. 3/3.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 9:40 AM

‪I’m in a very deep shock, I can’t even laugh at this.‬

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 9:47 AM

October 4 will be a significant milestone in Georgia one way or another.

On the one hand, it’s the sham local elections where some opposition parties decided to participate. It will be rigged, and participants know it too. The police will of course be on high alert patrolling precincts. 1/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:05 AM

In the meantime, some groups have announced a “peaceful revolution” on that evening (unrelated to any concerns regarding local elections rigging because no one cares about it to begin with). 2/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:05 AM

There are countless rumors regarding who’s behind that process, whether there are regime defections incoming, and whether there are enough skilled people to protect the protesters if the regime resorts to a crackdown. 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:05 AM

There are countless rumors regarding who’s behind that process, whether there are regime defections incoming, and whether there are enough skilled people to protect the protesters if the regime resorts to a crackdown. 3/

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:05 AM

I don’t know much about what’s happening around the date & it’s driving me crazy, but in any case, the grand gathering has penetrated everyone’s minds in Georgia, there’s a palpable mix of confusion, hope, anger, fear and determination, and the GD is visibly weaker than ever.

#GeorgiaProtests 4/4.

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:05 AM

It was rumoured that the regime has a shortage in manpower and resorted to the Special State Protection Service in preparation for the grand October 4 rally.

I didn’t necessarily believe it until the Service suddenly announced recruitment for the protection of important buildings.

Gosh…

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:41 AM

Looks like things are accelerating in Georgia.

The US:

First ladies. I rarely see Melania smile.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 12:47 PM

The EU:

European officials fear Trump is preparing to blame them for Ukraine failure on.ft.com/4o8McBZ

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— Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) September 25, 2025 at 12:17 AM

From The Financial Times:

European officials fear Donald Trump’s latest rhetoric on Ukraine aims to set them an impossible mission that will allow the US president to shift blame away from Washington if Kyiv falters in the war or runs short of cash.

After months of pressing Ukraine to settle with Moscow and give up Russian-occupied territory, the US president stunned European capitals on Tuesday by declaring on social media that Kyiv could “fight and win” all its land “with the help of the EU”.

While Trump’s new stance was welcomed in some quarters, several European officials concluded he was handing them responsibility for Ukraine’s defence with expectations that Europe would find hard to meet.

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk on Thursday warned publicly that Trump’s “surprising optimism” disguised “a promise of reduced US involvement and a shift of responsibility for ending the war to Europe”. He added on X: “Better truth than illusions.”

Trump has also called on the EU to halt purchases of Russian oil and hit China and India with tariffs — steps that Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, a Trump ally, has long said he would block.

“This is the start of a blame game,” one official said of Trump’s abrupt change of heart. “The US knew that the China and India tariffs would be impossible” for the EU to accept.

Trump “is building the off ramp” so he can blame Europe when and if he needs to, a European government aide said. The shift was “spectacular” and “generally good”, but Trump was “setting a very high bar”, a German official noted.

Carlo Masala, international affairs professor at Bundeswehr University Munich, said “Trump wants to avoid that, after nine months in power, this war becomes his war too” and no longer just “Biden’s war”.

One European official noted Trump’s “Good luck to all!” sign-off on his Truth Social post as tantamount to a handover note.

Another European official said: “Everyone sees he is disengaging.”

After a bilateral meeting with Trump in New York on Tuesday, Emmanuel Macron, president of France, put a more positive gloss on the US leader’s statement, describing it as “very correct”.

“If we back Ukraine completely in this situation, the Russian economy is suffering, so there is an opportunity for a good future,” Macron added.

But EU leaders have concluded Trump is no longer a reliable ally, officials said.

Denmark:

🇩🇰 BREAKING: Denmark has once again closed Aalborg Air Base and Aalborg Airport after unidentified drones were detected in its airspace.

Commercial flights are being diverted.

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— Conflict Dispatch (@conflictdispatch.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 6:25 PM

Unidentified drones were spotted overnight near four airports in Denmark.

The UAVs were seen around Aalborg Airport, as well as in Esbjerg, Sønderborg, and Vojens. They were active between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m., but attempts to bring them down were unsuccessful.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 3:50 AM

Syria:

Ukraine and Syria have signed a document on the restoration of diplomatic relations, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced after a meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 2:28 AM

Back to Ukraine.

🇺🇦❤️ As part of the initiative of the President of Ukraine Bring Kids Back UA, 17 Ukrainian children and adolescents were rescued from the temporarily occupied territories.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 5:29 PM

“What is new in Trump’s statements made today or what do they mean for us? Absolutely nothing,” said Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a Ukrainian MP. “And what should we expect next? Also nothing.”

On the Ukrainian and Russian reactions to Trump’s messages.
w/ @maxseddon.bsky.social
on.ft.com/3IdFawr

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— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) September 24, 2025 at 7:43 AM

From The Financial Times:

Ukrainians were left unconvinced by the about-turn in President Donald Trump’s rhetoric at the UN, seeing no concrete military or economic support behind his warm words.

After months of insisting that Ukraine must surrender territory to Russia in exchange for peace, Trump met President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and appeared to dramatically reverse course. Kyiv, he wrote on social media, was “in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form”.

But the words struck Ukrainian politicians, soldiers and analysts as hollow.

“What is new in Trump’s statements made today or what do they mean for us? Absolutely nothing,” said Yaroslav Zheleznyak, a Ukrainian MP with the opposition Holos party. “And what should we expect next? Also nothing.”

Just last month, Trump had hosted Vladimir Putin in Alaska and appeared to side with the Russian president, abandoning his push for a ceasefire and instead arguing that Ukraine would need to give up land and capitulate to Moscow.

Even Zelenskyy was a “little bit” surprised by the volte-face, he told Fox News on Tuesday.

“I think we have a better relation than before,” he said, speculating that “maybe time” had helped. “I think the fact that Putin was lying to President Trump so many times also made a difference.”

But Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko warned: “Let’s not rush to conclusions just yet. Trump is Trump, and we have seen his mood swings and shifts in political positions more than once.”

With no new promises of sanctions, Ukrainian soldiers felt little reassurance from Trump’s barbs about Russia looking like a “paper tiger” that was in “BIG” economic trouble.

“Please, let’s not get euphoric just because Trump said that Russia’s economy is collapsing and screwed. He’s already said plenty of things in public, so his words carry no weight,” wrote Oleksandr, a senior lieutenant and war blogger who goes by his first name in keeping with military protocol.

Russia’s biggest economic challenge, Oleksandr said, was Ukraine’s deep-strike drone campaign that had targeted Russia’s energy infrastructure and dented its fuel exports. “Everything else is fiction,” he wrote.

But Trump’s comments on Russia’s economy did prompt a rare rebuke from Moscow.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told RBC radio that Russia was “in no way a tiger, but more associated with a bear, and there is no such thing as a paper bear”. “Russia is a real bear . . . there is nothing paper about it,” he added.

Peskov acknowledged that western sanctions had created “certain points of tension” but said the economy had largely remained stable and could support its war effort. “We are doing this for our country’s present and its future for many generations to come,” he said.

More at the link.

Crimea is Ukraine 🇺🇦

— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 3:38 PM

This is Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces commander and this image is from his unit’s official account

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:57 AM

Russian occupied Luhansk:

Last night USF struck several key gas distribution stations in the occupied Luhansk region of Ukraine:

🔥 Shchastia Gas Distribution Station;
🔥 Sievierodonetsk Gas Distribution Station;
🔥 Novopskov Gas Distribution Station.

The strikes were carried out by the 14th USF Regiment

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 11:37 AM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Attack on Russia and occupied Crimea!
DroneBomber 🤩🤩🤩

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 5:09 PM

Ukrainian intelligence operatives destroyed two Russian An-26 aircraft in Crimea 👏

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 6:03 AM

🔥Two Russian An-26 transport aircraft, surface radar station along with the MR-10M1 “Mys M1” coastal radar targeted by the “Prymary” unit in Crimea during another raid.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 2:22 AM

/2. One of the Russian An-26 destroyed during the drone raid on Kacha military airfield in Crimea. An-26, 30 Blue, RF-46878. Illustrative image dated 2023. (44.77009, 33.57114)

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 3:02 AM

In occupied Crimea, people wait for hours in line for gasoline. Fuel is so scarce that even tiny deliveries to gas stations feel like a celebration. Yet the “gas station country” still insists everything is just fine.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 7:41 AM

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant:

The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has been in blackout for the second day.

The only line that supplied the plant with power from the Ukrainian energy system was damaged as a result of Russian shelling.

energoatom.com.ua/en/news/na-z…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 1:37 PM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Soldiers of the occupying army are trying to reach Kupiansk in small groups and hide within the urban landscape.

Drone operators from the 10th Army Corps are working to prevent Russian forces from crossing the fields toward the outskirts of Kupiansk.
t.me/c/2862528297…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 1:24 PM

Kherson Oblast:

Russia is shelling Kherson with North Korean JU-90 cluster munitions, reports Defense Express. Found in coastal areas, JU-90s are low-quality copies of the U.S. M42. Many fail to detonate, creating deadly hazards for civilians.
defence-ua.com/news/rf_viko…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 4:09 AM

Moscow:

Another Russian official has been found dead in Moscow.

The body of Alexander Fedotov, former chairman of the St. Petersburg Committee for Transport Infrastructure. Russians claim he committed suicide. He was discovered yesterday under the windows of the Sheraton Hotel at Sheremetyevo Airport.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 10:03 AM

This is why I have a one story house with no windows.

Bashkortostan Russia:

Satellite imagery of the Russian Salavat oil refinery after yesterday’s Ukrainian drone attack. ELOU AVT-6 with the yearly capacity of 6 mln tons of oil per year was severely hit.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 7:06 AM

/2. During the previous attack ELOU AVT-4 unit with the yearly capacity of 4 mln tons burned down.

Therefore, this Russian plant must completely stop oil refining until repairs are made.

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 7:06 AM

/3. In same manner as AVT-4, AVT-6 at the Salavat oil refinery was also fully covered in large anti-drone structures.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 7:10 AM

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Russia, Krasnodar Krai, Belorechensk. Overnight, the “EuroChem-Belorechensk Mineral Fertilizers” plant was attacked. Local residents reported hearing explosions at the facility.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 9:39 AM

Afipsky Oil Refinery, in Russia is Booming 💥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 8:35 PM

Ukrainian sanctions in action 🔥

(Afipsky refinery, Russia)

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 8:39 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos tonight. Here is some adjacent material.

😻 Apparently, he has already agreed with the local grannies that he will entertain them with his presence in exchange for exclusive rights to the best spots for a siesta. Who else can so elegantly turn a city bench into a personal bed and still look completely justified?
Odesa 🇺🇦

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) September 25, 2025 at 8:41 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,309: Another Day Another Set of Air InterdictionsPost + Comments (30)

Open Thread: James Comey, (Once Again) the Biter Bit

by Anne Laurie|  September 25, 20258:43 pm| 86 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Politics, Trump Crime Cartel, Schadenfreude

no way to thank the guy that put you in the white house in the first place.

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— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 4:05 PM

===

Here is James Comey, refusing to admit that in hindsight he made an obvious terrible mistake leading up to the 2016 election that ultimately set American Democracy on its current course. Would he have done that if the candidate were a man?
Comey deserves everything he gets.

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— Amee Vanderpool (@girlsreallyrule.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 8:16 PM

(A bit of decompression snark, before the effort to stay civil drives some jackal past endurance.)

Maybe Jimmy Kimmel’s trouble really was a tipping point; Our Very Serious Media is no longer attempting to sane-wash the actions of the Oval Office Occupan and his minions. Per ABC News, “Former FBI Director James Comey indicted days after Trump demanded his DOJ move ‘now’ to prosecute enemies”:

Former FBI Director James Comey has been indicted on charges of making a false statement and obstruction related to his testimony before the Senate Judiciary Committee in 2020, just days after President Donald Trump issued a public demand for his Justice Department to act “now” to bring prosecutions against Comey and other political foes.

The charges follow Trump’s ousting of the U.S. attorney for the Eastern District of Virginia, Erik Siebert, who according to sources had expressed doubts internally about bringing cases against Comey, as well as New York Attorney General Letitia James, after Trump appointed him to lead the office.

Trump then immediately moved to install Lindsey Halligan, a White House aide and his former defense attorney, to lead the office, despite her having no prior prosecutorial experience.

Earlier this week, federal prosecutors in Virginia informed Halligan that they could not establish probable cause to charge Comey, ABC News first reported. Despite the lack of clear evidence and ethical concerns about bringing a case without clear probable cause, Halligan sought an indictment from the grand jury.

show full post on front page

In a series of social media posts over the weekend, Trump said Halligan was being appointed to the office to “get things moving,” after attacking Siebert for his resistance to bring what Trump described as a “GREAT CASE.”…

The charges against Comey are the most dramatic escalation yet in what critics have described as a campaign of retribution by Trump to use the powers of the federal government to enact revenge against those he believes have wronged him.

Comey, who was fired by Trump during Trump’s first term over the investigation into Trump’s 2016 campaign and its ties to Russia, has been a vocal critic of what he says are Trump’s efforts to politicize the justice system.

That argument is now likely to be central to Comey’s defense in his criminal case, which could prove to be a highly consequential test for both the Justice Department and the federal judiciary…

Friday: a prosecutor is forced to resign bc he concludes there's not enough evidence to go after Trump's perceived enemies
Saturday: Trump makes public post asking Attorney General why she hasn't gone after his enemies
Wednesday: DOJ says enemy indictment coming right up sir
do I have that right?

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— Barred and Boujee aka Madiba Dennie (@audrelawdamercy.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 3:47 PM

===

I expect the grand jury will no-bill the attempt to indict James Comey.
But that motherfucker brought this all on himself by unilaterally violating DOJ policy to shit all over Hillary Clinton so Republicans wouldn't be mean to him later.
Fuck that guy.

— txlawyer (@txlawyer.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 8:10 PM

The Washington Post adds:

… The case against Comey centers on testimony he gave before the Senate Judiciary Committee in September 2020 amid a hearing on the FBI’s investigation into Russian interference with Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign.

The indictment filed Thursday makes Comey the first senior government official to face prosecution in connection with the Russia probe — an investigation that Trump and his supporters have long derided as a “witch hunt” and a “Democratic hoax” despite several government investigations that concluded Moscow had sought to interfere in the race on Trump’s behalf.

Comey was originally appointed as FBI director in 2013 by President Barack Obama. He was fired by Trump in 2017 amid acrimony largely stemming from the FBI’s handling of the Russia investigation.

In some areas of the country, jury duty is about the most patriotic thing you can do these days. If I got on this jury, I’d at least hope for an opportunity to thank Comey for helping to manufacture the hellscape we’re all living in before I saved his pathetic ass.

— The Mean Progressive (@themeanprogressive.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 5:39 PM

===

EXCUSE ME but Pam Bondi and Kash Patel lied to Congress during their confirmation hearings but are now attempting to prosecute James Comey for allegedly lying before Congress.

— Freddie Fan ?? (@freddiefan2.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 9:11 PM

===
After his UN humiliation earlier this week, the Mad King demands somebody be indicted!

UPDATE: Trump wants U.N. Escalator AND James Comey arrested

— Keith Olbermann (@olbermann.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 6:27 PM

Open Thread: James Comey, (Once Again) the Biter BitPost + Comments (86)

Excellent Read: Be Aware, But Not Afraid

by Anne Laurie|  September 25, 20251:25 pm| 144 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Resistance to Trump

This brought out a bunch of doomers “…but! but!”-ing with all of the obstacles facing a pro-democracy movement in the USA, but I think it is worth thinking about the question from the other side.
What does MAGA need to do to do (not how, just what) to hold power long-term? Are they doing it?

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— “Online Rent-a-Sage” Bret Devereaux (@bretdevereaux.bsky.social) September 24, 2025 at 8:52 PM

I’m breaking my own rule and posting Mr. Devereau’s entire thread. “Ancient & military historian specializing in the Roman economy and military”:

It isn’t enough to corrupt one part of the system, after all. If they corrupt law enforcement, but not elections, then they lose elections and get prosecuted. If they corrupt elections, but not courts or state govs, underlings go to state prison for election fraud (and then no more underlings).

In short, they need an answer to a challenge from each ‘level,’ we might say, of the system and they need them all in place *before* the moment of crisis where the power of the regime/administration is tested (because you only get to fail that test once before it is hanging-from-lamppost time).

The first level is elections: you need to be able to either win them fairly, corrupt them thoroughly or avoid them entirely.

Generic congressional ballot is ~D+4, Trump’s approval is around -10 and getting worse, so ‘win them fairly’ is probably not an option.

That’s notable because most competitive authoritarians *prefer* for obvious reasons, if they can use their state media, paid shills and handouts to preferred groups to win elections without a ton of fraud, to do that, for obvious legitimacy reasons.

Not an option for MAGA.

The next choice would be corrupting the system in thorough but subtle ways.

The US system makes this *really* hard because the elections are run at the state level and the states where you’d want to change the results are blue or purple states who are not going to humor your tampering.

That leaves the obvious options of either 1) cheating in the open – say, brigades of DHS goons sent to polling places in battleground states – or 2) suspending elections.

But even if you subvert elections, you aren’t immune to public response, which gets us to level 2.

Level 2: Media control.

You need enough control over information that you can either 1) hide your incompetence well enough to remain popular or 2) conceal from enough of the population your obvious election subversion so that people don’t ‘feel’ like you stole the democracy…

…OR – and this is *by far* the most common approach – 3) create the appearance of a consensus of regime support so that while many people think you cheat and are full of s***, they’re afraid to speak out and be alone in doing so.

Has MAGA achieved any of that? Fuck no.

If anything, that project is rolling backwards as the ‘Trump won the election, I guess we have to do whatever he wants’ disease seems to slowly be wearing off of some media elites.

Most Americans think Trump is doing a bad job, the ‘right track/wrong track’ indicators right now are terrible, so (1) ‘hide your incompetence and corruption’ is failing and it is really hard to create the illusion of consensus when you can’t even fire Jimmy Kimmel and have him *stay fired.*

show full post on front page

Now, don’t misunderstand me: Trump and MAGA *are attempting* to undermine the press, to manufacture that consensus and to break the systems that would tell you either that their rule was weak or that they were moving to undermine elections.

They’re trying, my point is so far they’re *failing.*

That gets us to Level 3: dealing with popular mobilization. Ideally, your authoritarian is hoping that success at level 2 will keep the opposition small and fragmented, but chances are there will be some protestors, some dissidents, some resisters.

So you need goons.

And people are going to immediately point out that Trump and MAGA are using DHS to create their army of goons. True and concerning!

They are making progress on this front, which is bad.

But also I think people *really* underestimate how many goons they need.

In 1932, on the eve of seizing power, the Nazi goon army – the Sturmabteiling or SA – numbered 400,000 members. By 1933, it was over two *million.*

DHS has 240,00 employees and lot of those are non-goons who have, you know, real jobs.

ICE and CPB have, I think, about 90,000 personnel between them.

Now that number is going up, but the United States is also a *lot bigger* than 1930s Germany, which had ~65m people over; we have ~340m spread over a much larger physical space.

So the number of goons Trump and MAGA would need, assuming they had Nazi-esque levels of state capture and media control – which they don’t – would number not in the tens of thousands but millions.

The entire active duty military wouldn’t be enough goons, if they were all goons, and they’re not.

Now DHS is absolutely getting a surge of funding, which they will use to do stupid and terrible things and *absolutely* I think part of the idea there is to begin building this kind of security state, but a lot of it is instead flowing into things that aren’t armies of goons.

In particular of the $170bn they got, $47bn of it is going to border wall construction, which doesn’t do much if your problem are American citizen protestors. There’s only $12bn for new agents; the concerning bit is the $45bn for new detention facilities, a domestic Gulag Archipelago.

By contrast the DoD burns something like $230bn per year on personnel costs (not including the VA and such) and, as noted above, that’s probably not enough personnel to manage a totalitarian security state covering the entire United States.

And these guys won’t get another shot at more money.

Again, think numbers: No Kings put something like 5 million people in the streets when Trump was more popular and s*** was more normal than it is now.

90,000 DHS goons – hell, 200,000 DHS goons – are not enough to beat that kind of protest into submission.

And sure you *can* ask cops, the guard or the army to do some of the shooting for you, but there’s a reason the Nazis did not do that (they used the SA at first): you do not know which way those rifles will be pointed when the bullet comes out.

Good chance its at the tyrant, not the protestor.

(And the more protestors there are, the more the chance that the troops side with them increases.)

In short then, while I think MAGA and Trump are attempting an authoritarian takeover, I also think they are, from incompetence, failing and actually failing quite badly.

The United States is a tough nut to crack for this kind of thing, by design. Lots of independently elected officials (like blue and purple state governors) with their own supplies of force and democratic legitimacy. Big country, fragmented media, long democratic traditions.

Hard nut to crack.

The only way these fascist chucklefucks make this work is by succeeding in manufacturing the *appearance* of inevitability, because they *do not* have the force or skill to win a straight fight.

In short, the only weapon that can deliver them victory is you: the fool doomer whose nihilism is poison.

Do not be their sword.

Finally, I’m sure someone is screaming ‘don’t give them ideas!’ or something and..look, if anyone in the MAGA establishment is reading this, here is my advice:

Bail. This isn’t working out. Your big guy is billion years old and sundowning and Little JD ain’t got it.

This isn’t going to work. Bail.

What the MAGA guys should be doing, if they’re smart – many are not – is checking the exits, making sure to avoid doing anything that might land them in jail in a post-MAGA world and going either right-wing grifter or chameleon ‘Nikki Haley republican’ pretending they never believed in this.

So from our perspective, are there a lot of challenges to digging out of this mess and getting our democracy running effectively again? Yes. Even if we get these guys out, they’ll have broken a lot.

But they’re even further away from victory. They are not inevitable, do not make them so.

Excellent Read: Be Aware, But Not AfraidPost + Comments (144)

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Artists in Our Midst – Is there anything Avalune can't do? 4
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