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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

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War for Ukraine Day 899: Belgorod

by Adam L Silverman|  August 10, 20248:46 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note. Rosie is still doing excellently. She has this week off before her next treatment. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

As I begin tonight’s update at 7:35 PM EDT/2:35 AM local in Ukraine, almost all of Ukraine is under air raid alert. And drone attacks are being reported.

Ukraine is under a large russian drone attack right now.
Possibly russian way of throwing tantrum over Kursk, or they are just being their usual genocidal selves. pic.twitter.com/unL1Fab5ae

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 10, 2024

Here’s the butcher’s bill from yesterday’s attack in Kostiantinivka, as well as from Russia’s attacks on Kharkiv and Kramartosk.

The bodies of two children were identified in Kostiantynivka: girls aged 9 and 11. 14 people killed https://t.co/gDtcRhip1h

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 10, 2024

The bodies of two children, a 9-year-old girl and a 12-year-old girl, have been identified among the victims of the russian missile attack on Kostiantynivka. According to the Donetsk Obl prosecutor’s office,six of the 14 bodies remain unidentified, including that of another child pic.twitter.com/8AKNFecxBv

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 10, 2024

A russian war crime that will likely go unnoticed by Western media, yet demands as much attention as any massive missile strike. Last night, russian forces targeted the village of Pershotravneve in the Izium district of Kharkiv Oblast. The attack claimed the lives of a… pic.twitter.com/2sYy6ep9xH

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 10, 2024

A russian war crime that will likely go unnoticed by Western media, yet demands as much attention as any massive missile strike. Last night, russian forces targeted the village of Pershotravneve in the Izium district of Kharkiv Oblast. The attack claimed the lives of a 24-year-old man and an 80-year-old woman, who perished beneath the rubble of their home. A 58-year-old man later died from his injuries in the hospital.
#RussiaIsATerroristState

In the early hours today, russian forces targeted Kramatorsk in Donetsk Oblast with a missile strike, which devastated a critical infrastructure facility and resulted in the death of one worker. pic.twitter.com/7MuetPsJnF

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 10, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Ukraine Is Proving that it Really Knows How to Restore Justice – Address by the President

10 August 2024 – 20:47

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

First of all, I would like to commend all our warriors for this week – the combat brigades, which are highly effective in defending our country and destroying the occupier. We leave no part of the front unattended. Every direction, every point of combat engagement. The Sumy region, the Kharkiv region, all directions in the Donetsk region, especially the toughest ones – Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kramatorsk – and the south of our state. Everywhere, there is something to thank the Ukrainian warriors for.

In particular, I would like to mention the 47th and 110th separate mechanized brigades. This is the Pokrovsk direction specifically. Well done, guys! Also, the 1st separate assault battalion, the 35th separate marine infantry brigade, the 54th separate mechanized brigade, the 57th and the 59th separate motorized infantry brigades, the 77th separate airmobile brigade and the 100th separate mechanized brigade. Thank you all! And also, I thank the special units of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine for their actions in the south direction.

Today, Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi has already reported several times – on the frontline situation and on our actions to push the war out into the aggressor’s territory. I thank every unit of our Defense Forces that makes this happen. Ukraine is proving that it really knows how to restore justice and guarantees exactly the kind of pressure that is needed – pressure on the aggressor.

I also want to thank our partners – all those who made this week effective in terms of sanctions against Russia and individuals associated with it. This should be felt every week – that sanctions truly work, and anyone who tries to circumvent them will get a response from the world. We are preparing new decisions that will impose restrictions on the Russian state. I am thankful for the new defense packages for Ukraine. This week we have an American package. Missiles for Stingers, shells for HIMARS, 155-mm caliber artillery. We are working on timely logistics, to make the aid tangible on the frontline as soon as possible. And we look forward with great anticipation to decisions on long-range capabilities – from the United States, the United Kingdom, and France – we look forward to strong decisions that will bring a just peace closer.

And one more thing. I have just held a preparatory meeting on a decision that will strengthen our Ukrainian spiritual independence. We must deprive Moscow of the last opportunities to limit the freedom of Ukrainians. And the decisions to achieve this must be one hundred percent effective – they must really work. We will ensure them.

Glory to Ukraine!

For want of a nail!

This, of course, suggests that Ukraine is still not allowed to use ATACMS and Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles to strike targets in Russian territory. https://t.co/CvFLi3r7W9

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 10, 2024

The reason:

Warrior Dad came to see his daughter perform in the Olympics. She didn’t know whether he will be able to get there until she came out to perform and saw him waving and cheering. “Miracles do happen!” she said.

Dad has been defending Ukraine since 2014. Glory!

📹: Suspilne pic.twitter.com/kiZL3aaeB5

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 10, 2024

It looks like the Ukrainians have also crossed Russia’s border into Belgorod Oblast:

Ukrainian military next to the Porozovsky village club
Belgorod region, village Poroz, Sergeevka street. 3km from the Ukrainian border. (50.5771226, 35.4506268)

Russian sources confirm movements of the Ukrainian soldiers in Poroz area: “Under the cover of artillery, the… pic.twitter.com/15QJt9d9hw

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 10, 2024

KURSK OFFENSIVE /2110 UTC 10 AUG/ Ukrainian forces reported in contact at Belaya, SE of Sudzha. Possible expansion of UKR offensive. Russian Ka-52 reported downed by Ukrainian MANPADS. pic.twitter.com/HYRvrfhiCL

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 10, 2024

UPDATE: Sources report that an evacuation order has been issued to Russian citizens in the vicinity of Belaya, SE of Sudzha. This would appear to confirm a 2nd UKR thrust has entered Russia.

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) August 10, 2024

Ukrainian military next to the Porozovsky village club
Belgorod region, village Poroz, Sergeevka street. 3km from the Ukrainian border. (50.5771226, 35.4506268)

Russian sources confirm movements of the Ukrainian soldiers in Poroz area: “Under the cover of artillery, the Ukrainian Armed Forces entered the settlement of Poroz, Graivoronsky urban district, Belgorod region.”

The Ukrainians Soldiers are holding a Georgian flag, which is covered in signatures, and a Ukrainian flag with the battalion’s crest.

Day five of Ukraine’s “special military operation” in Russia.
🔴 Ukrainian forces continue advancing east of Sudzha, heavy fighting reported throughout the area.
🔴 Russia says at least 76,000 Russian civilians have fled the border areas of Kursk region.
🔴 Ukrainian soldiers… pic.twitter.com/M3a2KiN2Tu

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) August 10, 2024

Day five of Ukraine’s “special military operation” in Russia.
🔴 Ukrainian forces continue advancing east of Sudzha, heavy fighting reported throughout the area.
🔴 Russia says at least 76,000 Russian civilians have fled the border areas of Kursk region.
🔴 Ukrainian soldiers post a video from another cross-border incursion, in a village in Belgorod region.
🔴 Russian Ka-52 helicopter downed in Kursk, both sides lose some tanks and fighting vehicles. More videos of Russian POWs emerge.

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

On Day 5 of incursion into Kursk, Russia announces anti-terrorist operation in three bordering oblasts “to maintain public order.” Here’s what this tells us:

1. Restrictions on using Western weapons and limiting military aid to Ukraine to avoid escalation are pointless. Putin… pic.twitter.com/OBnkk9pUFJ

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 10, 2024

On Day 5 of incursion into Kursk, Russia announces anti-terrorist operation in three bordering oblasts “to maintain public order.” Here’s what this tells us:

1. Restrictions on using Western weapons and limiting military aid to Ukraine to avoid escalation are pointless. Putin only understands strength. 1/👇🏻

3. Russia’s border regions, and areas deep within, are poorly defended, opening up opportunities to target military infrastructure and further weaken its war machine.

4. Military defeat is the only path to real change in Russia, and events in Kursk are making that path clearer.

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 10, 2024

Captured Russian T-72B3M obr.2022 tank somewhere in the Kursk regionhttps://t.co/DlcOrzHpvc pic.twitter.com/Z9Gu83ynnd

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 10, 2024

As said, this morning Russian attempted to organize a tank ambush on Ukrainian forces but their attempt failed, somewhere in the Kursk regionhttps://t.co/V7czcAkowi pic.twitter.com/Pq4ffW6Uyj

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 10, 2024

This is great reporting from Alexander Chernykh of @kommersant. He lets the local voices speak for themselves, and they don’t hold back their anger at the Russian leadership. Also clear signs of discontent with the war as a whole, though not on any principled grounds. https://t.co/DVAJqAcQEX

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 10, 2024

“Tell the state that we want to see them. Let the state tell us the truth – what should we expect? Will we return to our homes or can we say goodbye to them? Well, at least some crumb of honest information from the state!” https://t.co/kztgiU2vet

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 10, 2024

“We had such a sincere rise of patriotism in 2022…then we saw that everything was not going as it should be. And they began to wonder – who made these plans at all? Maybe you shouldn’t have thrown the guys to Kiev right away? Maybe we should have liberated Donbass first?”

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 10, 2024

‘And we also don’t understand why we are not told the truth. The enemy entered our territory, and on TV they said, “This is an emergency.” What an incident when other people’s tanks are on our land! This war is already concrete!’ https://t.co/kztgiU2vet

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 10, 2024

As Ukraine invades a Russian region, the reaction in Moscow is mostly business as usual. “Meh, it happens.” My latest with ⁦@tggrove⁩ in @WSJ https://t.co/toIpRssUKH

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) August 10, 2024

From The Wall Street Journal: (emphasis mine)

In the five days since Ukrainian forces pushed into Russia’s Kursk region, at least 76,000 Russian civilians have fled the fighting—some seen racing away in shrapnel-peppered cars. A tent city for refugees is being set up in the regional capital.

The first major foreign military invasion of Russian territory since World War II, the Ukrainian incursion caught Moscow by surprise. Kyiv’s forces have advanced at least 20 miles in from the border and raised a Ukrainian flag in the town of Sudzha.

Videos posted online show a column of Russian reinforcements taking heavy losses Friday near another town in the area, Rylsk, and Ukrainian troops released footage with well over a hundred Russian prisoners. At least three Russian combat helicopters have been shot down, according to Russian military analysts.

Still, on Russian TV—and in the Kremlin’s pronouncements—the tumultuous events of recent days are presented as nearly routine, with Ukrainian forces usually referred to as “saboteurs” who are “attempting” an incursion. President Vladimir Putin described the advance of Ukrainian armored units as “yet another large-scale provocation.”

The chief of Russia’s general staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, said no more than 1,000 Ukrainian troops were involved. Russia’s Defense Ministry later said 1,120 Ukrainian troops have been killed, sparking online ridicule of the defense establishment by Russian nationalist bloggers.

On Friday, the Russian government described activities in the border regions of Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod as a “counterterrorist operation,” giving them the same legal status as law-enforcement actions against Islamist extremist groups in the northern Caucasus.

This placed the fighting on the Ukrainian border under the overall command of the Federal Security Service, Russia’s domestic intelligence agency—rather than the military.

“There can be no rally around the flag effect for an authoritarian regime that is losing,” said self-exiled Russian political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, who used to be one of Putin’s speechwriters. “The authoritarian public only respects strength—if you win, you become more popular. But if you start losing, and the defeat in Kursk is obvious, then you remain alone and people don’t just turn away from you, they start hating and despising you.”

It was a wave of public outrage about the conduct of the war—and Russian combat losses—that fueled the most serious challenge to Putin’s rule so far, last summer’s brief mutiny by the Wagner paramilitary group led by Yevgeny Prigozhin. Wagner easily took the southern Russian city of Rostov and rolled virtually unopposed toward Moscow before aborting the uprising.

It appears that Russia has managed to slow down Ukrainian advances in Kursk, but it is nowhere near regaining the lost territory so far, and Russian military bloggers said Kyiv seized an additional Russian village, Plekhovo, on Saturday. “We must look at this situation with sobriety,” Russian lawmaker Andrey Gurulev, a retired lieutenant-general, told Russian TV as he pointed to the size of invading Ukrainian units. “We won’t be able to push them out quickly.”

The Ukrainian move into Sudzha followed a similar, but less successful, Russian cross-border offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region in May. That operation prompted the U.S. and allies to relax longstanding restrictions on using Western-supplied weapons on Russian soil. Washington still maintains the ban on striking Russian targets outside border areas, such as military airfields, with American-supplied ATACMS missiles, out of fear of sparking escalation by the Kremlin.

Putin’s muted reaction to the invasion of Kursk, however, raises questions about what red lines the Russian leader really has—and whether Western hesitation to arm Ukraine, a result of concerns about Russian escalation, was a strategic mistake.

“We have to see how the Russians respond, but this is an assault on its territorial integrity and ultimately sovereignty,” said John Foreman, a former U.K. defense attaché in Russia. “So the question is what is a red line.”

For now, at least, there is no evidence of popular outrage directed at Putin outside the immediately affected areas of Kursk region. Russia’s hypernationalist war analysts are fuming about the failures of the Russian Defense Ministry. Some of them have demanded the firing of Gerasimov, and the return to the front of former Ukraine war commander Gen. Sergei Surovikin, who was briefly detained and sidelined last year because of his ties to Prigozhin, and Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army who criticized the General Staff last year and is now in jail on corruption charges.

But this criticism is limited—in part because several hypernationalist commentators have been jailed or died in mysterious circumstances in the wake of the Wagner uprising. Just as the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk began, Russia tightened restrictions on YouTube and imposed curbs on the Signal messaging service, trying to contain the flow of information.

“War has become so routine in people’s minds, that even such serious failures as the seizure of internationally recognized Russian territory is treated as something like: Meh, it happens,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a former adviser at the Russian central bank. “I don’t think anything can mobilize Russian society at this point. Generally speaking, the Russian people have wanted and keep wanting the same thing: to be left alone.”

While the Ukrainian offensive into the internationally recognized Russian territory might seem a dramatic turn of events to many in the West, it is less so in Russia because the Kremlin’s propaganda treats all of the fighting in the Ukrainian war as occurring on Russian soil.

Moscow, after all, announced the annexation of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine in the fall of 2022—and, from the point of view of the Russian constitution, there is no legal distinction between a Ukrainian offensive in Kursk or in occupied southern Ukraine.

Much more at the link.

Regardless of how the Ukrainian gambit in Russia concludes, one thing it has proven for sure: there are no red lines , except those the West drawns.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 10, 2024

Some russian Telegram channels are claiming that NATO forces are present in Russia and that chemical weapons have been used against RU forces. They provide no evidence since they have none. What are they trying to imply? That NATO entered Russia and used WMD as Putin ignores it?

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 10, 2024

NATO expansion really is non-negotiable. Who knew?

Putin has declared a counter-terrorist operation in the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions. And this means that the operation will be managed by the FSB.

The FSB, which has long been actively pursuing the military on Putin’s orders, bringing criminal cases against them and… pic.twitter.com/E8Nuet0i1e

— Denis Danilov (@DenisDanilovL) August 10, 2024

Putin has declared a counter-terrorist operation in the Kursk, Bryansk and Belgorod regions. And this means that the operation will be managed by the FSB.

The FSB, which has long been actively pursuing the military on Putin’s orders, bringing criminal cases against them and arresting high-ranking generals, has now been given control over an operation that should involve the same military. I highly doubt that the generals of the Russian military will just swallow this and comply.

Let’s see where such decisions will lead, because, as we know, most of the coups have occurred precisely in times of war, when tensions between the various branches of government reach a critical point.

#Kursk #RussialsATerroristState #UkraineRussiaWar

It is significant that Putin has put the response to the Ukrainian cross-border offensive under the FSB. The FSB is the successor of the KGB, which was Putin’s professional home before he was placed into politics in St. Petersburg. It is the one institution he trusts within Russia. It may be the only one. The FSB is unlikely to actually have the resources and the capabilities to actually deal with this on their own.

The story of a captured FSB Border Service instructor who made a reasonable decision to surrender together with the rest of the border patrol unit and conscripts. https://t.co/d8HbfIVwgJ pic.twitter.com/4pGyGco6WM

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 10, 2024

The thinner the FSB’s forces and personnel get stretched on Russia’s borders, borders which include the Kaliningrad enclave sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania.

This isn’t going to help things:

Danish military expert Anders Nielsen @anderspuck tells how Putin is using Russian conscripts in the war with Ukraine.

▪️ Historical context
During the Afghan War, the forced dispatch of conscripts to the war zone caused panic in families. Fear was fueled by the zinc-lined… https://t.co/fD2j02H7uF pic.twitter.com/M9AfHo2hQV

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 10, 2024

Danish military expert Anders Nielsen @anderspuck tells how Putin is using Russian conscripts in the war with Ukraine.

▪️ Historical context
During the Afghan War, the forced dispatch of conscripts to the war zone caused panic in families. Fear was fueled by the zinc-lined coffins of “Cargo 200” arriving in every corner of the country.

This public sentiment was one of the reasons why the USSR actually lost the war and withdrew its limited contingent from Afghanistan.

▪️ Conscripts and the “SMO”
Given the lessons of the Afghan War, the Kremlin leadership promised not to send conscripts to Ukraine.

Nevertheless, conscripts have been in the war since the first days of the invasion. Some of them allegedly voluntarily signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense, while others were part of the advancing units.

At least 159 Russian conscripts died during the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This figure is given by the BBC Russian Service, analyzing information from open sources together with the Mediazona media outlet.

▪️ Conscripts on the border
Since the fall of 2022, Russian conscripts have been actively used to protect the most difficult parts of the border, where they replaced the contract soldiers who had been sent to the front line.

It was conscripts, along with border guards, who were on the first line of Russian defense during the large-scale breakthrough into the Kursk region. They lacked heavy weaponry, equipment, and proper training. As a result of the fighting, dozens of conscripts could have been captured.

▪️ What next?
According to Danish military expert Anders Nielsen, the Kursk incursion presents Putin with a dilemma – replace conscripts with units intended for the war in Ukraine or recognize the participation of conscripts in combat operations.

And this is a highly sensitive issue that will affect the majority of Russians.

“If Ukraine kills some poor guy that is from Siberia and he joined the army to earn some money, then that’s not something that’s going to get people upset in the middle-class neighborhoods. But if the conscripts start dying, then they will care.”

De-Nazified.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 10, 2024

Russian occupied Crimea:

On the night of August 9, 2024, near Chornomorske in the temporarily occupied Crimea, operators of the @DI_Ukraine special unit “Group 13” used a MAGURA V5 marine attack drone to destroy another vessel of the occupiers—a speed boat of the project KS 701 of the Tunets type. pic.twitter.com/uiR0kGAt8q

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 10, 2024

The Russian occupied Black Sea:

/2. Judging by FIRMS data, the targeted oil platform is located here – 45.2600278, 31.6751667. (Yellow dot on the map.) pic.twitter.com/JrIQ9owxN9

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 10, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of Sternenko’s tweet:

The Navy is clearing the Black Sea of ​​Russian junk!

That night, they struck one of the gas towers in the water area, where the enemy had placed technical reconnaissance equipment and held up to 40 personnel.
Now these are underwater and at the same time fried katsaps.
The gas platform is still burning 🔥

The Navy of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is armed with twin Sea Baby drones with a range of up to 1,000 km and a warhead of about 900 kg, so the Russians will have fewer and fewer chances to survive in the Black Sea.

I am attaching an exclusive video of a successful strike by our sailors.

Chasiv Yar:

Chasiv Yar.

By Ukraine’s 18th National Guards. pic.twitter.com/NnTnlEV9Lj

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 10, 2024

Rostov on Don, Russia:

Rumor has it that a military base near Rostov, russia is having a Saturday BBQ party pic.twitter.com/WTjimPIvSG

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 10, 2024

Russian Telegram channels report a large fire not far from Persianovka village in Rostov region of Russia. There is a military unit in that area. pic.twitter.com/YM44TDkoSa

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 10, 2024

Reuters reports that Iran will be sending ballistic missile systems to Russia:

Aug 9 (Reuters) – Dozens of Russian military personnel are being trained in Iran to use the Fath-360 close-range ballistic missile system, two European intelligence sources told Reuters, adding that they expected the imminent delivery of hundreds of the satellite-guided weapons to Russia for its war in Ukraine.

Russian defence ministry representatives are believed to have signed a contract on Dec. 13 in Tehran with Iranian officials for the Fath-360 and another ballistic missile system built by Iran’s government-owned Aerospace Industries Organization (AIO) called the Ababil, according to the intelligence officials, who requested anonymity in order to discuss sensitive matters.

Citing multiple confidential intelligence sources, the officials said that Russian personnel have visited Iran to learn how to operate the Fath-360 defence system, which launches missiles with a maximum range of 120 km (75 miles) and a warhead of 150 kg. One of the sources said that that “the only next possible” step after training would be actual delivery of the missiles to Russia.

Moscow possesses an array of its own ballistic missiles, but the supply of Fath-360s could allow Russia to use more of its arsenal for targets beyond the front line, while employing Iranian warheads for closer-range targets, a military expert said.

A spokesman for the U.S. National Security Council said the United States and its NATO allies and G7 partners “are prepared to deliver a swift and severe response if Iran were to move forward with such transfers.”

It “would represent a dramatic escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” the spokesman said. “The White House has repeatedly warned of the deepening security partnership between Russia and Iran since the outset of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.”
Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Iran’s permanent mission to the United Nations in New York said in a statement that the Islamic Republic had forged a long-term strategic partnership with Russia in various areas, including military cooperation.
“Nevertheless, from an ethical standpoint, Iran refrains from transferring any weapons, including missiles, that could potentially be used in the conflict with Ukraine until it is over,” the statement said.

The White House declined to confirm that Iran was training Russian military personnel on the Fath-360 or that it was preparing to ship the weapons to Russia for use against Ukraine.

The two intelligence sources gave no exact timeframe for the expected delivery of Fath-360 missiles to Russia but said it would be soon. They did not provide any intelligence on the status of the Abibal contract.

A third intelligence source from another European agency said it had also received information that Russia had sent soldiers to Iran to train in the use of Iranian ballistic missile systems, without providing further details.

Much more at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos, so here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Happy Caturday!
Today’s mission: bring good luck and boost morale.

📷: Oksana Chorna pic.twitter.com/MmHRU60BmJ

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 10, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 899: BelgorodPost + Comments (61)

Open Thread: Harris-Walz Nevada Rally

by TaMara|  August 10, 20247:59 pm| 283 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Activism, Open Threads, Politics

The rally is set for 8:20 EDT.

I know these are pretty standard stump speeches, but I think seeing the crowds and enthusiasm is always positive.

This is Bryan Tyler Cohen’s feed, he usually has some good commentary.

Las Vegas is with Harris/Walz! pic.twitter.com/tOFnnE45Mp

— Molly Ploofkins™ (@Mollyploofkins) August 10, 2024

🚨 #BREAKINGNEWS Vice President Kamala Harris and Governor Tim Walz crowd at the Thomas And Mack Center in Los Vegas, Nevada one hour before rally starts. 🚨 pic.twitter.com/j7Y4o1K9MT

— Ford News (@FordJohnathan5) August 10, 2024

This is an open thread.

Open Thread: Harris-Walz Nevada RallyPost + Comments (283)

Opinion for Discussion: Republicans Will Refuse to Certify a Harris Win

by WaterGirl|  August 10, 20245:40 pm| 156 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

From the Bulwark.  Yeah, I know.  Still worth reading.

h/t Jackie for the article.

1. Trump’s Not Taking the L. . .

The last two weeks—the unveiling of the Harris-Walz ticket, and Kamala Harris’s surge in the polls—feels like some surreal dream state. Everything has changed. Have you noticed Harris has pushed Donald Trump right out of the comfy lead he’s held for an entire year? He’s noticed. From FiveThirtyEight to RealClearPolitics—pick your polling average—they all now show Harris out in front after only two and a half weeks.

Trump is no longer on track to win the election—which he has been for more than six straight months. Instead, the momentum, money, voter registration, volunteering, grassroots organizing, polling, and online engagement all favor the Democrats and it looks now like Trump could easily lose.

But that won’t happen, because Trump doesn’t lose. He beat Joe Biden in 2020—remember? So if he’s not the rightful victor on November 5, an entire army of Republicans is ready to block certification of the election at the local level.

No need to worry about mayhem on January 6, 2025 when Congress meets in joint session; the election deniers plan to stop a result right away if it looks like Harris is winning. Their goal: Refuse to certify anywhere—even a county that Trump won—and prevent certification in that state, which prevents certification of the presidential election.

A Harris victory could become a nightmare.

An investigation by Rolling Stone identified “in the swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania . . . at least 70 pro-Trump election conspiracists currently working as county election officials who have questioned the validity of elections or delayed or refused to certify results.” Of those 70, 22 of them already have “refused or delayed certification” in recent past elections. Nationwide, Republicans have refused to certify results at least 25 times since 2020, in eight states—the most in Georgia.

The article describes social media posts from the zealots who have infiltrated election administration as showing “unapologetic belief in Trump’s election lies, support for political violence, themes of Christian nationalism, and controversial race-based views.”

There are more than enough such individuals in these key posts to bring us to a constitutional crisis.

“I think we are going to see mass refusals to certify the election” in November, Democratic election lawyer Marc Elias told Rolling Stone. “Everything we are seeing about this election is that the other side is more organized, more ruthless, and more prepared.”

Sit with that.

Then there is this. Trump’s self-destructive attacks on Georgia’s popular governor made the headlines from his Atlanta rally last Saturday, but he also singled out for praise three little-known Georgians—Janice Johnston, Rick Jeffares, and Janelle King—calling them “pitbulls fighting for honesty, transparency, and victory.”

Who are Johnston, Jeffares, and King? They are three of the five members of Georgia’s State Election Board. Three days after Trump’s speech, this past Tuesday, those three Republicans approved a new rule requiring a “reasonable inquiry” prior to election certification that—while vague and undefined—could be exploited to delay certification and threaten the statewide election certification deadline of November 22.

2. How Is This Happening All Over Again?  (read at the link)

3. Who Can Stop It?  (read at the link)

Final Note

As Elias told an interviewer, there are things we can do, as citizens willing to invest some time, to take action.

This isn’t a threat from abroad. This year—and likely for years to come—we will all have to continue to fight against what our fellow Americans are doing to subvert elections. Because without free elections—and facts and truth—we cannot be a free country.

We are forewarned.

Read the whole thing here: Get Ready Now: Republicans Will Refuse to Certify a Harris Win

At first blush, President Biden’s remarks in his interview, stating lack of confidence that there will be a peaceful transfer of power, seems kind of in line with the premise here  I will be interesting in hearing what everyone thinks.

Opinion for Discussion: Republicans Will Refuse to Certify a Harris WinPost + Comments (156)

Pelosi

by @heymistermix.com|  August 10, 20244:41 pm| 150 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Pelosi

She was clearly at the center of the effort to convince Biden to quit.  Her appearance on Morning Joe shortly after Biden issued his letter stating that he’s staying in the race, where she said it was “his decision”, was a turning point.  She claims that she didn’t call people (specifically not Schumer), but like the relationship where someone is the person who kisses and someone is the person kissed, people called her.

And it was all because we must win – Trump cannot be in the White House again.  She was laser focused on that, and events so far have shown that she was right.

Pelosi has a book, and she’s giving interviews.  Here’s a good one with Ezra Klein (video podcast).  Here’s David Remnick’s interview in the New Yorker.  The podcast especially is worth a listen, because when she’s not scripted, she’s a great combination of Catholic Baltimore mom (uses “poopy” and the bill was “a stinker”) and just cutthroat politician.

PelosiPost + Comments (150)

Another Saturday, Another Piece of Journalism from Chris Quinn at Cleveland’s The Plain Dealer

by WaterGirl|  August 10, 20242:30 pm| 85 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Journalism, again!

I hope you will all read this and share it with anyone you know in Ohio.  It’s about the person who is running to un-seat Sherrod Brown.

I don’t publish this incautiously. I know some will say this column is petty, or partisan. It’s not about that. It’s about me being a journalist with exclusive access to information about a candidate for statewide office. I’d publish it no matter which party he represented. I can say that I’ve been at this work for many years, and I’ve never received anything remotely similar from Sherrod Brown. Or Mike DeWine. Or Rob Portman, John Glenn or George Voinovich.

No, this is about Moreno the person, not Moreno the Republican. When he found himself facing the national crisis of an attempted assassination of a former president, his immediate response wasn’t to remain calm and wait for the facts. He didn’t become pensive or unifying. He jumped to a preposterous conclusion and went on the attack.

Letter from the Editor (the whole thing)

Former Cleveland Mayor Frank Jackson liked to say that the true measure of a leader comes when they face a crisis, and he would know, having handled more than a few.

Leading was easy when times were good, he’d say. A crisis tests a leader’s steel and ability to make sound decisions under stress.

Former car dealer Bernie Moreno wants to be your leader in Ohio. The Republican is asking for your vote in his battle to supplant Democrat Sherrod Brown in the U.S. Senate.

With Moreno’s effort and Jackson’s adage in mind, I offer the following for your consideration.

I went on vacation at Walt Disney World last month with my wife, our children and grandchildren. We had planned it for a year, and one of my goals was to completely break free of my job for a week to immerse myself in the joy of being together. I disconnected my work email from my phone and turned off my notifications. I left texting intact, though, for family communication on days we went our separate ways.

The first day of the vacation was July 13, which also was the day someone tried to assassinate former President Donald Trump. That’s a national crisis if ever there was one. No one wants our country to be a place where elected officials – former or current – are assassinated. Such attempts undermine our sense of national security and, with many, cause us to re-examine our national discord. Many politicians responded with messages of unity.

Even though I was disconnected, I knew about the assassination attempt soon after it happened. I am a news guy after all. But I was in the Magic Kingdom with grandkids. My focus was their joy and wonder. Some time later, I checked my phone and saw a message had arrived at 8:18 p.m., exactly two hours and seven minutes after the assassination attempt. It was from Moreno.

When “journalists” like you labeled Trump another Hitler and claim there will never be another election or that America ends if he’s re-elected, what did you think was going to happen?

Again, this is barely a couple of hours after the attempt. No one had a clue yet about the would-be assassin’s motive or, or even, his identity. The nation was in shock that such violence had occurred once again and wanted details about Trump’s condition. But Moreno picked that moment to send the above text.

Before I go further, I should mention a previous exchange I had with him. A couple of years earlier, on our Today in Ohio podcast, I was talking about Moreno as a candidate for Senate in the race that ultimately sent JD Vance to Washington. This was in the early days of the campaign, before Moreno had abandoned many of the principles for which Northeast Ohio knew him, before we realized how desperate he was for Trump’s approval. I marveled on the podcast that Moreno, who once urged Republicans to accept the 2020 election results, completely reversed himself and called the 2020 election stolen. I likened his reversal to the behavior of 1930s Nazis, who knew the truth about Hitler but kept standing by him for their political gain. Moreno found the comparison offensive, which might explain why he sent me a text mentioning Hitler.

Regardless, here I was, vacationing in Walt Disney World with news of the assassination attempt fresh in my head, reading a text from Moreno saying it was my fault.

I responded at 9:13:

Yeah, Bernie. Stick with the fascist playbook. Try to blame the journalists.

And I put my phone away.

The next day, I saw that Moreno had followed up with a barrage of messages deep into Saturday night. At 9:21 p.m. came:

You own this. Thanks to you I now have to take extra care to protect my family. I hope you get lots of money for your click bait crap.

At 9:49:

YOU OWN THIS!!! Apologize to your readers for your rhetoric. Anything short of that shows how shallow and hollow you are as a man.

He sent two more messages that, for some reason, he unsent before I could read them. Too offensive? Too mild? Only he knows, but Apple’s messaging app recorded their arrival and deletion.

At 10:08 p.m. he was still at it, texting me a social media link of someone criticizing the media for accusing Trump of inciting violence.

He finished up at 12:39 p.m. the next day with a link to a column I wrote about Trump – one that was popular across the globe – and this message:

Resign. You’re a disgrace to your profession.

I never responded again. One, I was on vacation, and two, I have found the best response to unhinged messaging is to ignore it. I regularly receive unhinged messages, which seem to get sloppier the later they arrive in the night.

Normally, I would have let Moreno’s messages fade into the background without thinking about them again, as I do with most offensive messages I receive. In this case, I keep returning to the fact Moreno seeks your vote. Part of my job is to inform the electorate about candidates. For three weeks, I’ve been nagged by a feeling that my duty here is to share his texts?

I don’t publish this incautiously. I know some will say this column is petty, or partisan. It’s not about that. It’s about me being a journalist with exclusive access to information about a candidate for statewide office. I’d publish it no matter which party he represented. I can say that I’ve been at this work for many years, and I’ve never received anything remotely similar from Sherrod Brown. Or Mike DeWine. Or Rob Portman, John Glenn or George Voinovich.

No, this is about Moreno the person, not Moreno the Republican. When he found himself facing the national crisis of an attempted assassination of a former president, his immediate response wasn’t to remain calm and wait for the facts. He didn’t become pensive or unifying. He jumped to a preposterous conclusion and went on the attack.

Which brings me full circle, back to Frank Jackson’s adage about how leaders show their mettle in a crisis.

Read Moreno’s messages again.

Is this how a leader should respond to a crisis?

I’m at [email protected]

Any other journalism this week that you would like to report?

Otherwise, open thread!

Another Saturday, Another Piece of Journalism from Chris Quinn at Cleveland’s The Plain DealerPost + Comments (85)

As A Father, Elon Musk Is “Daddy Dearest”

by The Thin Black Duke|  August 10, 202411:58 am| 165 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Every family has a designated weirdo and that was me.

But no matter how much of a knucklehead I was during my difficult teenage years, my family always supported me even though I knew they didn’t always understand where I was coming from. They always had my back, and I loved them for that.

I was blessed. However, some people aren’t so lucky. If the appropriate boxes aren’t checked off, they won’t get a helping hand but a slap in the face, and it hurts more when it’s coming from someone who says they love you.

To contrast and compare, let’s look at Elon Musk, the techbro zillionaire who can’t buy a clue.

Elon Musk contains multitudes. Unfortunately, they’re all bad.

Musk is a monstrous human being. As a dysfunctional parental unit, he’s a monster. Musk sees his children either as disposable props or punching bags.

In a recent interview with fellow nutjob Jordan Peterson, Musk babbled (again) about the infamous “mind woke virus” and how it “stole my son from me”.

Vivian Jenna Wilson pushed back against Musk’s nonsense. Hard.

“I think he was under the assumption that I wasn’t going to say anything and I would just let this go unchallenged,” she told NBC News in an interview published July 25. “Which I’m not going to do, because if you’re going to lie about me, like, blatantly to an audience of millions, I’m not just gonna let that slide.” 

Wilson—whom Musk shares with ex-wife Justine Wilson—clapped back by saying she is entitled to make her own decisions when it comes to her identity and health. 

“I would like to emphasize one thing: I am an adult. I am 20 years old. I am not a child,” she said. “My life should be defined by my own choices.” 

Wilson—who filed to change her name when she was 18—also detailed her estranged relationship with Musk, which she said began long before she came out as trans at age 16.

Calling Musk “cold” and “quick to anger” during her childhood, Wilson alleged he was only present about 10 percent of the time. 

“He is uncaring and narcissistic,” she said, recalling one “cruel” incident in fourth grade during which he allegedly berated her vocal tone. “He was constantly yelling at me viciously because my voice was too high.”


It’s difficult, awkward, and confusing to transition from being a child to a young adult, and the arguments that erupted at home usually resulted from me trying to figure things out and my parents trying to figure me out. But despite all of the generational drama, I knew that they loved me, and the invaluable support of my family throughout the years was the solid bedrock that helped me navigate the turbulent waters of my teenage years.

And no matter how bad it got at times, my mother and father never acted like they were ashamed of me. My mother and father never did to me what Musk did to his daughter.

There’s a line from a Law and Order episode that spills the tea about men like Musk:

“He wasn’t a father,” Jack McCoy said. “He just happened to be in the room when the child was conceived.”

I bet Ms. Wilson wishes Tim Walz was her Dad.

As A Father, Elon Musk Is “Daddy Dearest”Post + Comments (165)

Helicopters in the Sky Try to Lift Me Up

by @heymistermix.com|  August 10, 202411:04 am| 73 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Helicopters in the Sky Try to Lift Me Up

I guess I should be amused by the amount of attention that Trump is getting for his confabulated story about the helicopter crash that wasn’t with the black guy that wasn’t Willie Brown (Nate Holden) when they spoke of not Kamala Harris (it was 1990 and she was getting started as a deputy DA in San Francisco, not LA, where Holden was from).  But I’m not, because it’s a symptom of the sickness that infects the press corpse — they get spun up by trivia rather than substance, and they’ll drill in forever on shit like this.   (Though, to be clear, I’m glad Willie Brown is enjoying his moment in the spotlight at age 90.)

Compared to the other shit Trump said at his press conference, this helicopter nonsense is trivia.  He fabricated a story about immigrants from the Congo being sent to the US, couldn’t give a straight answer on banning mifepristone, and doubled down on the racist “is she really black” attacks on Harris.  Plus, he doesn’t seem to know Tim Walz’ name.

That all said, I think the outrage at the press is having some effect.  Here’s the initial headline on the Walz education story at the Post:

Helicopters in the Sky Try to Lift Me Up 1

Here’s the headline now:

Helicopters in the Sky Try to Lift Me Up 2

The story (gift link) isn’t bad — it’s the absolute inability of the headline writers (and the political press in general) to put the facts before the analysis, or skip the analysis entirely, that’s really killing political journalism.   The second headline is just a much better piece of journalism than the first, no matter what your political leaning.

One of my high school writing teachers always said that the hardest thing for a writer to do is to crank out a simple declarative sentence.  That’s evident in spades in today’s political coverage.  Every editor at the big rags should send out a one-sentence memo to their political correspondents:  “Five W’s and an H, motherfuckers!”

Trumpers aren’t going to pay for subscriptions to the Post, Times or any other “librul” rag.  We are their customers.  We’re paying for information, not half-baked, uninformative analysis.

(Atrios made a similar point in a different way and it’s worth reading.)

 

Helicopters in the Sky Try to Lift Me UpPost + Comments (73)

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