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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Optimism opens the door to great things.

Historically it was a little unusual for the president to be an incoherent babbling moron.

Today’s gop: why go just far enough when too far is right there?

Reality always gets a vote in the end.

Is trump is trying to break black America over his knee? signs point to ‘yes’.

Text STOP to opt out of updates on war plans.

“They all knew.”

Our messy unity will be our strength.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

One lie, alone, tears the fabric of reality.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

Bad people in a position to do bad things will do bad things because they are bad people. End of story.

Narcissists are always shocked to discover other people have agency.

Mediocre white men think RFK Jr’s pathetic midlife crisis is inspirational. The bar is set so low for them, it’s subterranean.

Dear legacy media: you are not here to influence outcomes and policies you find desirable.

You’re just a puppy masquerading as an old coot.

When do we start airlifting the women and children out of Texas?

The poor and middle-class pay taxes, the rich pay accountants, the wealthy pay politicians.

Roe is not about choice. It is about freedom.

These are not very smart people, and things got out of hand.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

Disagreements are healthy; personal attacks are not.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Arizona, Battle Tested

by Anne Laurie|  August 10, 20247:46 am| 346 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Kamala Harris for President, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

It is intangible (but important) that you absolutely cannot imagine Trump and Vance having any sort of little moment of joy like this on the campaign trail. https://t.co/zFWdwfyMoX

— Tim Hogan (@timjhogan) August 9, 2024

Salt Lake City reporter:

I've been to dozens of campaign rallies this cycle: Trump, Biden, Haley, DeSantis, etc. This Harris rally in Glendale, AZ, is — by far — the biggest crowd (and biggest venue) I've seen. pic.twitter.com/o8r0tz9nb3

— Samuel Benson (@sambbenson) August 9, 2024

??Glendale, AZ

Huge line to see Harris-Walz today in Arizona. Supporters line up in a 105 degree day to hear what the Democratic ticket has to say.

Harris-Walz campaign has hydrations stations throughout the line, doling out waters and gatorades to supporters. pic.twitter.com/WxzwT9c40b

— Alex Tabet (@AlexanderTabet) August 9, 2024

Holy shit!!
This is the line in Phoenix ahead of today’s Kamala/Walz rally.
People are fired up.
But more than that — they’re excited.
They’re happy.
They’re joyful.
It’s palpable.#KamalaBringsUsJoy pic.twitter.com/A9sJPbjmjh

— Jo (@JoJoFromJerz) August 9, 2024

Speaker of the Navajo Nation Council Crystalyne Curley is in attendance at Friday’s Harris/ Walz rally in Arizona.

She tells me this the first campaign rally she’s ever attended in her life, saying she came out to witness what could be the first female president in the U.S. pic.twitter.com/3ffyWYjJWZ

— Aliyah Chavez (@AliyahJChavez) August 9, 2024

Just learned that there are more than 15K people at our rally tonight!! https://t.co/G4jNBzKTkA

— Bhavik Lathia (@bhaviklathia) August 10, 2024

show full post on front page

Liberal Patriotism is back on the menu boys! pic.twitter.com/8zmJKE4xAA

— Blake Allen (@Blake_Allen13) August 10, 2024

VP: He intends to surrender our fight against the climate crisis. And, Arizona, every day you feel the impact of extreme heat and drought. You know this crisis is real. He calls it a hoax. pic.twitter.com/MiKAt1gGVm

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 10, 2024

Mesa, AZ Republican Mayor John Giles: I do not recognize my party. I have something to say to those of us who are in the middle: You don’t owe a damn thing to that party. You don’t owe anything to a party that is out of touch and hell-bent on taking us backward. And by all means,… pic.twitter.com/8vpQmdxsPx

— Acyn (@Acyn) August 9, 2024

The view from the 200 level of Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale at the Harris Walz rally. @CopperCourier pic.twitter.com/IDJsvaMpFg

— Jessica Swarner (@jessica_swarner) August 9, 2024

Ok, so
1. Watch this moment.
2. Celebrate this moment.
3. Ask, as I know you are asking, "HOW is she so GOOD?"
4. Tuck it away in your brain for a minute that the world convinced you she could be anything other than *this* good. Wonder why.
5. Celebrate this moment again. https://t.co/rECVZCuCTW

— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) August 10, 2024

Tim Walz, Mark Kelly, Gabby Giffords, and Ruben Gallego join Kamala Harris on stage for a celebration of unity as Beyonce’s “Freedom” plays in the background at the end of a huge Arizona campaign rally. pic.twitter.com/TalzJi7b1c

— Keith Boykin (@keithboykin) August 10, 2024

Saturday Morning Open Thread: Arizona, Battle TestedPost + Comments (346)

Friday Night Schadenfreude Open Thread: TFG Haz Loser Stench!

by Anne Laurie|  August 10, 202412:50 am| 137 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Trumpery, Schadenfreude, social media

they are also hopping off the train because trump is cooked

[image or embed]

— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) Aug 9, 2024 at 1:25 PM

(Nick Fuentes’ Wikipedia page)

 
No wonder the NYTimes is melting down — they’ll do their clenched upper-middle-class major-media-market best, but how can they properly catapult the propaganda without a steady golden shower of Kamala deepfakes, Tim Walz swiftboating, and sick dank memes?

(Pretty clear the Russian bot farms aren’t bringing the heat any more, either; seems like Putin may have more immediate problems than propping up what looks like an increasingly bad bet.)

Joe Rogan, Tim Pool, and Nick Fuentes have made public statements against Trump today. Something is afoot. https://t.co/57XDCHhkpg

— Dave Troy (@davetroy) August 9, 2024

RFK Jr allows them to pretend they’re against the system but bc he’s a fringe candidate it comes without the risk of backing a loser. And they don’t want to be tied to a loser. https://t.co/ufQgAhOQFu

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) August 9, 2024

He is a shell of his former self being propped up by foul little monsters even worse than he is. They’re not keeping him going out of loyalty, but because they see him as a vehicle to ram through every bit of regressive policy possible.

— Jean-Michel Connard ??? (@torriangray) August 9, 2024

Trump has always been bad but he's bad like a shark or a sinkhole. The people who prop him up are bad like bad *people* which are infinitely worse. https://t.co/i4SbW9Zw7K

— cai (@AnneNotation) August 9, 2024

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Didn't think they had to pay for online messaging! It was being done for free, it was highly effective for years!

— cai (@AnneNotation) August 7, 2024

MSNBC chyron: “Trump delivers unhinged press conference in effort to take attention away from Harris momentum.”

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) August 8, 2024

CNN chyron: “Trump spouts insults, lies as he tries to regain spotlight.”

— Mike Sington (@MikeSington) August 8, 2024

Erick ‘Voice of the GOP Gated Community’ Erickson wishes to talk to the manager!

Outside of the hardcore Trump supporters who already think the race is going to be stolen, a growing number of Republican voters who think the race is winnable are getting really frustrated by Trump's lack of message discipline.

— Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) August 9, 2024


(There *is* no manager)

"Right now, the Republican Party is basically the Titanic. We're slowly sinking, we have a band playing on the deck telling everybody it's fine. And meanwhile, Trump is running around trying to find women's clothing and get on the first lifeboat."
— Adam Kinzinger

— Bill Madden (@maddenifico) August 7, 2024

TFG’s reduced to doing hits for the… well, even as reicht-wing gamers go, this dude seems to be pretty far off main:

Giving the weirdest and most useless vehicle ever created to the weirdest and most useless person ever born is pretty spot on, TBH. https://t.co/ENWtd9GfNk

— Rex Huppke (@RexHuppke) August 5, 2024

He sniffed Andrew Tate’s ball sweat off a chair. https://t.co/kTTBH9PjOS

— Clean Observer (@Hammbear2024) August 6, 2024


Srsly?

Adin Ross sniffed Andrew Tate's chair upon him leaving the room. I wish I was making this up. pic.twitter.com/by9dhLz5qp

— Right Wing Cope (@RightWingCope) January 8, 2023

Now we’re just waiting for Norman Desmond: Sunset Boulevard, The Documentary…

Friday Night Schadenfreude Open Thread: <em>TFG Haz Loser Stench!</em>Post + Comments (137)

War for Ukraine Day 898: Even More on the Kursk Offensive

by Adam L Silverman|  August 9, 20249:04 pm| 21 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing excellently. She has next week off and then goes back a week from Monday for the fourth and final treatment of round three. Then two more weeks off and she starts round four. Thank you all for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

The Russians attacked another Ukrainian supermarket today. This time in Konstiatinivka.

At least 11 killed in Russian missile attack on ‘Ecomarket’ supermarket in Kostiantinivka. It was packed with people in the middle of the day—the same people of Donbas, Russia claimed it went to war to ‘save.’ pic.twitter.com/04oxGZX2zA

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 9, 2024

❗️Not four, but 14! I wrote the tweet too quickly, making a mistake, sorry for that😔

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) August 9, 2024

The death toll after russian missile attack on the supermarket in Kostiantynivka, Donetsk region has risen to 11.

At least 37 people were injured. Search and rescue operations continue.

Don’t look away from yet another terrorist attack on civilians!

Source: National Police pic.twitter.com/xwjakp6Wqi

— Kate from Kharkiv (@BohuslavskaKate) August 9, 2024

Warriors defending their country and sticking to international law vs a terrorist regime that knows no decency and no laws of war.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Are Working to Further Limit Russia’s Ability to Wage This War – Address by the President

9 August 2024 – 18:55

Dear Ukrainians!

The rescue operation in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk region, is still underway after a direct Russian strike on a supermarket. Dozens of other buildings: a post office, shops and houses, were also damaged. At the moment, we know of more than 40 injured people – all of them are receiving the necessary assistance. Unfortunately, 14 people were killed. My condolences to their families and loved ones. Russia always knows where it is hitting with its missiles, and this is a deliberate and targeted Russian terror. Another war crime for which the occupier will be held accountable. They will be accountable to the court and to history, and they are already accountable to the strength of our warriors. All those Ukrainians who are restoring justice, destroying the occupier and defending our positions. They are defending them just as it is necessary to preserve Ukrainian independence and achieve our goals. And the most important of them – just peace for all our people as soon as possible, real security for all our regions and communities. And it is achievable only if Ukraine takes the initiative in the war, if our unity with the world is preserved, and if we are all here, in Ukraine, and we all work for our country, for our mutual interests, for our security. I am grateful to all those who perform such tasks for Ukraine. Those who fight for the sake of Ukraine with true resilience and courage. I am proud of all our combat brigades! I also want to express my special gratitude to our warriors and units who are replenishing the “exchange fund” – by taking the occupiers as captives and thus helping to free our people from Russian captivity. This is extremely important and has been particularly effective over the past three days. We must return freedom to all our people who remain in Russian captivity.

I held a meeting of the Staff today. There was a detailed report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. Regarding our defense on the front – all directions. Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kharkiv – all of them. An analysis of our active actions was also presented. In addition, today there were reports from the Foreign Intelligence Service and the Defense Intelligence on the prospects for the near future, the opportunities and challenges that the terrorist state has. We are working to further limit Russia’s ability to wage this war. In particular, there was a report on our long-range drones. The head of the Security Service of Ukraine Maliuk reported on their use. Thank you, guys, thank you for your precision! And we are developing this capability. This is already our real strategic branch of the defense industry – a branch that will always work for Ukraine. The Commander of the Air Force also reported at the meeting on the improvement of our air defense. Minister of Internal Affairs Klymenko reported on the preparation of our schools for the new school year in terms of security. We help regional authorities, local authorities – communities so that children can go to school offline in all communities where it is possible.

And one more thing.

I am grateful to all our warriors who have already installed Army+. 40,000 downloads in the first 24 hours. The average time of use also shows a good result. This application should be extended to all our Ukrainian Defense Forces – all commanders, all soldiers. It is really useful to eliminate paperwork and all unnecessary bureaucracy. Ukraine must be modern at all levels.

Glory to Ukraine!

Meeting of the Staff

First, we received a report from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on the situation across all key directions: the South, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, as well as the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. The report also covered our defensive actions… pic.twitter.com/TqBKmxrMcO

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 9, 2024

Meeting of the Staff

First, we received a report from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi on the situation across all key directions: the South, Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, as well as the Luhansk and Kharkiv regions. The report also covered our defensive actions in the directions from which Russia launched attacks on Ukrainian territory.

A report by Commander of the Air Force Mykola Oleshchuk. The Staff approved a plan for further actions on strengthening our air defense system to protect people, critical infrastructure and military facilities. Additionally, Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko reported on the comprehensive protection of schools in cooperation with local authorities and communities on all security aspects in preparation for the school year.

There was also a report from the Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, Oleh Ivashchenko, on Russia’s new terrorist plans. We see all of this and will be ready. Finally, an important report was delivered by the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine, Vasyl Maliuk, on their special long-range operations. Very productive actions.

The cost:

“Nastia is nowhere to be seen… I need Nastia!” – relatives keep waiting for news on their loved ones after the Russian strike on a supermarket in Kostiantynivka. Pain and despair grow as the death toll of the Russian strike continues to rise.

12 people confirmed dead, 44 more… https://t.co/9JF0fnliqS pic.twitter.com/uOByVmveWO

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 9, 2024

“Nastia is nowhere to be seen… I need Nastia!” – relatives keep waiting for news on their loved ones after the Russian strike on a supermarket in Kostiantynivka. Pain and despair grow as the death toll of the Russian strike continues to rise.

12 people confirmed dead, 44 more injured – head of Donbas police.

People were buying groceries, getting the post or running other errands when Russian missile hit.

📹: Radio Svoboda

The reason:

Meet Oleksandr, call sign Pintset (Tweezers). In civilian life, he worked as a veterinarian, and today he serves as a medic in the 1st Battalion of the Rubizh Brigade.
During the early days of the full-scale war, he returned from abroad and joined the defense forces.
“I have my… pic.twitter.com/DhCSpTm2Rc

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 9, 2024

Meet Oleksandr, call sign Pintset (Tweezers). In civilian life, he worked as a veterinarian, and today he serves as a medic in the 1st Battalion of the Rubizh Brigade.
During the early days of the full-scale war, he returned from abroad and joined the defense forces.
“I have my family; I have my country. I must protect what’s mine,” says Oleksandr.

The US:

Today, @DeptofDefense announced a new security assistance package valued at $125 million to meet Ukraine’s most urgent needs.

The capabilities in this package include:

* Stinger missiles;
* Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
* 155mm and 105mm… pic.twitter.com/rNeZ3vSWPz

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 9, 2024

Today, @DeptofDefense announced a new security assistance package valued at $125 million to meet Ukraine’s most urgent needs.

The capabilities in this package include:

* Stinger missiles;
* Ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
* 155mm and 105mm artillery ammunition;
* Multi-mission radars;
* Tube-launched, Optically tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles;
* Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
* High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV) ambulances;
* Small arms ammunition;
* Demolitions equipment and munitions;
* Equipment to protect critical national infrastructure; and
* Spare parts, ancillary equipment, services, training, and transportation.

We are grateful to our 🇺🇸 partners for their staunch support!
We will win!

Lithuania:

Lithuania’s support for Ukraine is unwavering!
Much-needed aid is coming in August.
Thank you, friends!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇹 https://t.co/ObIPDV2uMk

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 9, 2024

The Kinburn Spit, Russian occupied Mykolaiv Oblast:

Landing on Kinburn spit: special forces of @DI_Ukraine destroyed dozens of invaders and their equipment. pic.twitter.com/NPNilInFIY

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 9, 2024

Bakhmut:

The duel: a Ukrainian Mavic attacks a russian reconnaissance drone near Bakhmut.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/LMWe9V840z

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 9, 2024

The Bakhmut direction: Ukrainian border guards are making the occupiers regret ever coming to our land.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/A3UpJ5QXYX

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 8, 2024

Kherson Oblast:

FPV drone operators of the 38th Brigade of Ukraine intercept nine Russian reconnaissance drones over the Kherson region: two Supercam, six ZALA and one Orlan.

P.S: It’s remarkable how easily the first FPV drone maneuvers around the Russian Supercam, choosing the right moment… https://t.co/iyZRIXRqqg

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 9, 2024

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

Missile strikes on Russian training grounds somewhere in the Zaporizhzhia region pic.twitter.com/1HAhnx1E96

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 9, 2024

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

Ukrainian soldiers several miles inside the Ukrainian-occupied part Russia seem relaxed enough to start repainting town names with the Ukrainian spelling. Not sure this is what Putin had in mind in February 2022. pic.twitter.com/Zp7zRMDzEw

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) August 9, 2024

The Russian Ministry of Defense continues to recycle older videos from other parts of the frontline, falsely claiming they are from Kursk. This is not the first instance, and it certainly won’t be the last. Great work by the Geoconfirmed volunteers in exposing these psyops. https://t.co/RmTVbUYn0D

— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) August 9, 2024

Ukraine’s breakthrough seems to have been achieved by massed used of jammers to knock out Russian drones and massed drones to break through the lines — my take for Forbes @forbes https://t.co/u0xdZvYDuW

— David Hambling (@David_Hambling) August 9, 2024

From Forbes:

A rapid Ukrainian advance starting August 6th has taken Russia – and Western analysts — by surprise , pushing deep into enemy territory and threatening the city of Kursk. The offensive has gained more territory in a few days than the Russians have in months. And while it is difficult to tell exactly what is happening, success seems to have been achieved by mastery of a new style of warfare.

Part 1: Electronic Blitzkrieg

According to Russian military Telegram channel Troika (“Three”), the Ukrainians used tactics previously tested in Kharkiv on a smaller scale. (Credit to Roy for picking this up).

First, they brought down Russia’s screen of aircraft-type reconnaissance drones, effectively blinding commanders to what was happening. This may have been done by new interceptor FPVs linked to air-defence radar.

Secondly, under cover of the temporary observation blackout, short-range jammers were brought forward to the front line. These were programmed with data previously gleaned from electronic warfare reconnaissance.

“They discovered the main frequencies of our border radio communication networks, drone control frequencies, and prepared powerful jammers that crushed our communications,” according to another Russian blogger quoted by WarTranslated.

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This was at least partly possible because the area was considered low priority and was not supplied with the latest equipment. In Ukraine, the war of drones versus jammers has been a constant arms race of upgrades as each move to evade jammed frequencies is countered by new jammers. It seems the drones in this sector were not working to the latest standards.

The result was that Russian drones, essential to identify targets and guide artillery, as well FPVs, were not able to function. According to WarTranslated’s source, even the feared Lancet loitering munitions were partly affected.

Drones are a major asset for stopping armored assaults. Recent reports suggest that they account for two-thirds or more of the tanks killed, with videos showing entire armored assaults knocked out one-by-one by successive FPV hits long before they reached enemy positions.

By concentrating enough jamming resources in the Kursk sector, Ukraine neutralized Russia’s drones, allowing their armor to cross open territory without being destroyed.

But how did they tackle Russian troops dug deep into defensive lines built over the course of two years?

Part 2: Drone Blitzkrieg

According to Three, Ukraine filled the skies with its own drones “an incessant barrage of high-precision FPVs, which go in swarms.”

OSINT analyst Roy notes that in recent weeks Ukraine has employed powerful drone bombs to blast openings in the overhead cover or Russian trenches and dugouts. Skilled FPV pilots are able to fly though these openings and clear the trench below.

It may be significant that some videos of the action showe new Ukrainian dive-bomber drones. While quadcopter dive-bombing has been seen before, these look like aircraft-type drones with longer range and greater payload. It is a distinct echo of the original Blitzkrieg concept of dive-bombers in close support of ground troops.

One the trenches are cleared, Three say that new Ukrainian ranger units quickly moved in to occupy and secure the empty positions, following close behind the drones(‘Drone rangers’?). Then the radio jammers were brought forward, and the whole process was repeated for the next stage of the advance.

Much more at the link.

The Washington Post has more details on the Ukrainian offensive into Kursk Oblast:

Ukrainian troops battled for a third day Thursday in Russia’s Kursk region, occupying villages and part of a town, in what has become the Western-backed military’s largest cross-border incursion since the Kremlin’s invasion in 2022.

U.S., Ukrainian and Russian officials all acknowledged the ongoing attack, which stunned Moscow and appeared to involve the use of armored fighting vehicles donated to Kyiv by the United States and its European partners — a development that drew no immediate objection from the Biden administration despite its past restrictions on such use of American weaponry.

The surprise assault on Kursk, about 330 miles south of Moscow, seemed designed to bring the war home to Russia, where many do not feel any direct impact of a conflict that has destroyed many Ukrainian cities and towns and displaced millions. It also may be intended to divert Russian troops from other locations along the front, where Ukraine’s military has steadily lost ground in recent months. Analysts suggested Kyiv could be trying to gain leverage for any future negotiations with the Kremlin.

The Biden administration said Thursday that the operation is an acceptable use of U.S. weapons to strike inside Russia, conforming with a May policy change that allows Ukrainian commanders to pursue targets there if Russian forces are preparing to launch attacks into Ukraine.

“As they see attacks coming across the border, they have to be able to have the capabilities to respond,” Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh told reporters during a news briefing.

German officials struck a similar tone. A defense ministry spokesman told The Washington Post that Berlin’s declared aim is to “support Ukraine in its defensive struggle against the Russian aggressor,” and pointed to past statements asserting Ukraine’s “right under international law to defend itself against these attacks.”

An adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, who like some other officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the operation, confirmed the Ukrainian military activity inside Russia and said its forces had seized about 100 square kilometers. The claim could not be independently verified.

In three days, the Zelensky adviser said, Ukrainian personnel advanced past towns of thousands of people, took hundreds of prisoners, and captured a gas-metering station that Russia uses for energy transactions with Hungary and Slovakia.

Drone video published on Instagram by a regiment in Ukraine’s military purported to show Russian soldiers in Kursk surrendering. Personnel from Ukrainian units believed to be fighting in Kursk declined to comment, saying operational secrecy was to their advantage.

Ukraine’s Sumy region has come under repeated bombardment from Russian forces firing across the border. And while Western countries, including the United States, have allowed Ukraine to use donated weapons to preempt or intercept attacks originating from Russia, the assault on Kursk marks the first known instance in which U.S. officials have applied the same justification to a cross-border ground offensive.

Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesman, said Russia had launched attacks on Ukraine from the Kursk region and that the United States supported Kyiv’s right to defend itself. “In the area where they are operating,” Miller added, “ … we have seen attacks come from there.”

Kyiv’s forces have moved more than six miles into Russia, Russian military bloggers reported. The acting governor of Kursk, Alexei Smirnov, reported that dozens of civilians have been injured.

While the precise objective of Ukraine’s incursion is unclear, in addition to potentially diverting Russian troops from Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, Kyiv could be trying to gain leverage in future negotiations, analysts said.

One assessment indicated the Ukrainians are attempting to disrupt Russian forces moving to the Kharkiv region southeast of Sumy, a U.S. official said. Another official said it seems more likely Ukraine wants to overstretch Russian units rather than capture terrain and hold it for the long term.

“Russia does not have the manpower where they can send reinforcements … while maintaining their current force posture and numbers, both in the Kharkiv area as well as in the east,” the second official said. “You have to pull forces from somewhere.”

Ukrainian officials have asked Washington to let them to use long-range U.S. ATACMS missiles to hit airfields that Russia is using to retaliate against the incursion — a decision that, if approved, could allow Kyiv to hold a portion of Kursk for some time.

“This will give them the leverage they need for negotiations with Russia — this is what it’s all about,” the Zelensky adviser said.

On Thursday, gas was still flowing through Sudzha, the last operational shipping point for a pipeline that carries Russian natural gas to Europe via Ukraine. The station was unlikely to be used for leverage, the adviser said, because with the pipeline running through Ukraine anyway, Kyiv could have disrupted flows at any time.

Ukraine earns lucrative transit fees but has expressed a desire to cut off Russia’s remaining energy business in Europe. Meanwhile, Russia’s National Guard said it had beefed up security around the Kursk nuclear power station, about 40 miles northeast of the town.

With Kyiv bracing for Russian reprisals, Ukrainian officials on Wednesday ordered about 6,000 people to evacuate from Sumy.

Russia’s most senior military commander, chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov, informed Putin on Wednesday that the Ukrainian offensive had been halted. But Russian military bloggers painted a drastically different picture, criticizing Russian forces for not better fortifying the border and lamenting the town of Sudzha as lost to the Ukrainian invaders.

According to Vyortska, an independent Russian outlet that interviewed people from Sudzha and their relatives, many are facing difficulties leaving town.

“We called the emergency services and they said they are unable to get anyone out,” one woman, identified as Marina told the outlet. “As I understood, they are not able to evacuate and it is very difficult to move around the town as drones are hitting civilians.”

Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, suggested on the country’s national television news broadcast that any military actions on the Russian territory could better Ukraine’s position during future negotiations with Russia to end the war. He did not comment on the Kursk incursion specifically.

While Ukraine might be trying to divert forces from the east to defend its new offensive in Russia’s Kursk region, Russia has more personnel and maneuverability than Ukraine. Kyiv has been mobilizing thousands of troops in recent months in a ramped-up conscription campaign, but those recruits need to undergo weeks of training before reaching the battlefield.

More at the link.

Well this is interesting:

Message from the russian resistance against Putin in Sudzha, Kursk Oblast. Dubbed and subtitles in English. pic.twitter.com/UbaQTQdFPO

— Radu Hossu 🇹🇩🇺🇦 (@RaduHossu) August 9, 2024

Russians now abandoning some of their most advanced tanks (T-80BVM, which first entered service in 2018) in Kursk Oblast as they flee the advancing Ukrainian forces. https://t.co/LqPpfo5cFa

— Jimmy Rushton (@JimmySecUK) August 9, 2024

Good explanation of the role of the gas metering station which Ukraine has captured. Ru & Ukr have incentives to keep gas flowing. But: “The E.U. countries most vulnerable are those still heavily dependent on Russian gas — Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia”https://t.co/b1biTzJYdA

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 9, 2024

From Meduza:

One day into their unprecedented cross-border raid into Russia’s Kursk region, Ukrainian forces captured the “Sudzha” gas metering station — a crucial part of the last remaining Russian pipeline still sending gas to Europe through Ukraine. Though Ukraine’s incursion into Russia is now in its fourth day, gas transit hasn’t stopped. Meduza breaks down what’s happening with the pipeline, how the capture of “Sudzha” has impacted the market, and why both sides in the conflict need to keep the gas flowing.

The first report that Ukrainian troops had captured the “Sudzha” gas metering station appeared Rybar, a Telegram channel run by a former Russian Defense Ministry employee, on August 7. Later that day, video footage from the region corroborated reports that Ukrainian forces were in control of the station, which is part of the infrastructure for the main pipeline still pumping Russian gas to Europe.

On August 8, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (speaking on condition of anonymity) told the Washington Post that the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) had taken control of the station. Other leading global media outlets reported this as well.

According to the Center for Information Resilience (CIR), a British nonprofit specializing in open-source analysis, as of August 8, there was no visual confirmation that the gas metering station had sustained damage in the fighting. However, given the close proximity of the clashes and verified video footage of Russian soldiers surrendering at the station’s entrance, CIR told Reuters that it’s “likely that the plant has been affected by the Ukrainian incursion, [though] the level of damage cannot be verified at this time.”

Officially, the Ukrainian authorities have not yet confirmed control over “Sudzha” nor, for that matter, provided any other details about the operation in the Kursk region. However, Ukrainian lawmaker Oleksiy Goncharenko commented on the news, saying: “Our guys heroically took [Vladimir] Putin’s main gas valve in Sudzha. And for three years now, we haven’t been able to collect profits from Russian gas supplies to Europe.”

Why is “Sudzha” important?

Located just 500 meters (547 yards) from the Ukrainian border, the “Sudzha” gas metering station is a critical part of the Urengoy–Pomary–Uzhhorod pipeline — the main (and currently the only operational) route for exporting Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine. Essentially, the station serves as a border checkpoint for Russian gas. Once the gas passes through “Sudzha,” it enters Ukraine’s pipeline system and flows into Slovakia, before continuing on to Czechia and Austria.

In 2023, approximately 14.65 billion cubic meters of gas were pumped through “Sudzha,” accounting for nearly half of all Russian gas exports to Europe. The station’s primary functions are measuring gas flow and monitoring its quality. Losing control of this “gas border” could trigger a force majeure clause, potentially leading Gazprom to suspend gas supplies.

In May 2022, Ukraine declared force majeure at another station that routes Russian gas to Europe — the “Sokhranovka” station. At the time, Ukrtransgaz, the operator of Ukraine’s gas transportation system, cited the loss of operational control over the “Novopskov” compressor station, located in a Russian-occupied area of the Luhansk region, which handled the gas coming from “Sokhranovka.”

Have export volumes and prices been affected?

Despite the capture of the “Sudzha” station by Ukrainian forces, Gazprom hasn’t halted the flow of gas through the station, according to a statement from a Gazprom spokesperson quoted by Interfax. Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko made a similar statement. The volume of gas requested for August 8 was 37.3 million cubic meters — only slightly below the usual daily average of 41 million. The request for August 9 was even higher, at 38.6 million cubic meters.

According to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSOG), a slight decrease of about five to 10 percent in the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine was recorded on the morning of August 6. This reduction could simply be due to lower demand, as the heatwave in Europe has subsided, reducing the need for air conditioning and ventilation systems, and gas storage facilities are already 86.5 percent full, approaching the November 1 target of 90 percent.

Although the export pipeline has remained operational throughout the last two and a half years of active fighting, the recent escalation near the gas corridor has rattled the market: gas prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub rose eight percent in just two days, reaching 40.1 euros per megawatt-hour for September delivery contracts — the highest price in Europe this year. In response, Moldova is initiating a state of heightened alert (Transnistria receives its gas via the “Sudzha” station).

“If the transit of Russian gas suddenly stops now, prices for the fourth quarter of 2024 could rise another 20 percent from their current levels,” an analyst from a major Western trading company told Meduza on condition of anonymity. The E.U. countries most vulnerable are those still heavily dependent on Russian gas — Austria, Hungary, and Slovakia. However, Citigroup Inc. analysts believe that “both Russia and Ukraine have the incentives to keep natural gas flowing as normal.”

More at the link.

From #Kursk twrd the border helis flying constantly, people hear them firing. Closer to the border “full hell” in Sudža from where people self-evacuated without any assistance.

In city people ignoring repeating air raid warnings, angry that region is not prepared at all.

2/2

— Aki Heikkinen (@akihheikkinen) August 9, 2024

The Ukrainian blackout on the invasion of Russia is gone. Here are soldiers of the 61st Brigade recording a video at the Gazprom offices in Sudzha, a district center of the Kursk region of Russia. “The city is under the control of armed forces of Ukraine and quiet.” pic.twitter.com/xNfrI4Ur54

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) August 9, 2024

The last night’s HIMARS strike on that ill-fated Russian column outside Rylsk.

Utter devastation. And precision. pic.twitter.com/nQEAU4kJOV

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2024

HIMARSed column, that was meant to reinforce Kursk. Turns out UAF was ready for that too. August and Kursk are turning into really bad omens for Putin pic.twitter.com/FKAGUs2YQW

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 9, 2024

Guess what the Russians do the day after their convoy gets HIMARSed? Post new videos of another convoy heading to Kursk. pic.twitter.com/KFSiKluOcj

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 9, 2024

Obligatory:

I’m interested in how we define Ukrainian success in Kursk. Important to do since otherwise we can paint literally any outcome as a success (or failure). A few suggestions offered off the top of my head with no particular commitment to any of them:

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 9, 2024

Here’s something for all those harping on about we don’t & can’t know the aims of the Kursk incursion. “A senior Ukrainian official … said the goal was to draw Russian troops away from other parts of the front line where Ukrainian units are struggling” https://t.co/3ndBCiGNfQ

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 9, 2024

‘A Russian academic close to senior Moscow diplomats warned that the use of U.S. weaponry on Russian soil crossed “another red line” that was likely to have serious consequences even as the ultimate gain for Kyiv was unclear.’ https://t.co/GsU6E1DLzk

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 9, 2024

Note it how idiotically helpless Putin and his system always is when things get out of hand.

The Kursk submarine, the Wagner mutiny, the Ukrainian breakthrough in the Kursk region.

The tsar is naked af.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2024

Lipetsk airbase, Russia:

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ammunition storage at Lipetsk Airbase, Russia, completely destroyed by Ukrainian UAS attack. pic.twitter.com/6p7ZDWjd2h

— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) August 9, 2024

It’s not just Kursk—Lipetsk airfield is up in flames after a massive drone strike. Are they bringing jets closer for a reason? pic.twitter.com/oznWujXXri

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 9, 2024

“A Ukrainian source with knowledge of Friday’s attack on Lipetsk – which lies even deeper into Russian territory than Kursk – said it struck an airfield in the region, destroying an ammunition depot with more than 700 guided bombs” https://t.co/U65N9FjwuB

— Shashank Joshi (@shashj) August 9, 2024

CNN has the details:

A Ukrainian source with knowledge of Friday’s attack on Lipetsk – which lies even deeper into Russian territory than Kursk – said it struck an airfield in the region, destroying an ammunition depot with more than 700 guided bombs, in a joint operation involving its military, security service and special operation forces.

The source said dozens of fighter jets and helicopters were on the airfield at the time, and that a powerful explosion had led to a huge fire breaking out. Lipetsk’s emergency ministry also reported a fire at a military airfield in the region.

“The enemy is hitting civilians in Kursk and Belgorod,” Artamonov wrote on Telegram. “Today [it] massively attacked our region with drones. We will not be frightened, we will not give in, but we are not going to risk the lives of our people either.”

Russia’s defense ministry said Friday it intercepted and destroyed 75 “aircraft-type” drones, including 19 over Lipetsk, 26 over Belgorod, seven over Kursk, and several others over the regions of Bryansk, Voronezh, and Orel. It said it also destroyed five over Crimea and eight over the waters of the Black Sea.

/6. Official Ukrainian statement regarding tonight’s drone attack on Russian military airfield in Lipetsk. And claims regarding strikes on Russian air defense systems in Donetsk region:

“Defense forces of Ukraine successfully hit the military airfield and air defense equipment…

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 9, 2024

/6. Official Ukrainian statement regarding tonight’s drone attack on Russian military airfield in Lipetsk. And claims regarding strikes on Russian air defense systems in Donetsk region:

“Defense forces of Ukraine successfully hit the military airfield and air defense equipment of the Russian occupiers.

Tonight, the Defense Forces of Ukraine struck the airfield “Lipetsk” (Lipetsk region, Russian Federation). In the course of the attack, warehouses with guided aerial bombs and a number of other objects in the vicinity of the airport were hit. Several sources of ignition were recorded, a strong fire broke out and multiple detonations were observed. It is known that the Su-34, Su-35 and MiG-31 aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces are based at the Lipetsk airfield. The results of the damage are being clarified.

In addition, our units attacked anti-aircraft missile divisions of the Russian Federation in the temporarily occupied territory of the Donetsk region. In particular, combat work was carried out against three enemy radars: two of the S-350 complexes and one of the S-300. Accurate hits and destruction of one S-350 air defense missile radar was confirmed. Regarding the other two, the information is currently being clarified. At the same time, it was recorded that all three enemy radars stopped working after the strikes.

Units of missile forces, special operations forces, forces of the Security Service of Ukraine and the forces of unmanned systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were involved in combat operations.

The joint combat work of all components of the Defense Forces on important targets of the Russian Armed Forces will continue in the future.

Together we will win!
Next will be…
Glory to Ukraine!”

https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU/16555

Moscow:

Meanwhile in Russia.

In Moscow, two ordinary Russians in a bus rounded up and turned in to the police an 87-year-old man who, according to them, dared to murmur to himself that Wagner mercenaries were “war murderers.”

What a wonderful country Putin has made for himself. pic.twitter.com/6j1WizTxvA

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) August 9, 2024

If anyone is wondering, that arm lock is a kaiten nage. With an attempted variant/reversed sankyo thrown in on the fingers at the end. Also, we don’t use them on defenseless people that aren’t threatening anyone.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

pic.twitter.com/Qkr3IDWCg9

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) July 31, 2024

pic.twitter.com/SgqRqbvvp4

— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) July 31, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 898: Even More on the Kursk OffensivePost + Comments (21)

The New York Times Is An Arm Of The Trump Campaign

by Tom Levenson|  August 9, 20248:04 pm| 104 Comments

This post is in: Media, Open Threads, Politics

I’ve tried to persuade myself that the problems at the Times were more those of a herd instinct that an explicit preference for Trump and Republican control (read, slaughter) of American democracy.

Then Michael Crowley published a truly revealing piece on Biden as a war-driven, perhaps even war-seeking president. It contains a catalogue of the tools available to a bad faith journalist.

The New York Times Is An Arm Of The Trump Campaign

Worst, to me, is the way Crowley (and his editors–this piece exists because the masthead wanted it) handles quoting Biden vs. the way Trump’s statements are treated.

Everyone of the comments from Biden is challenged, interpreted (to a certain end), often slyly derided.  Trump’s claims are just stated: presented as facts, rather than claims to be assessed. So, of course, Biden  is the source of conflict in the world, and Trump is allowed to say that he will bring peace.

There is plenty of other just wretched journalism in the service of a constructed, false narrative. One of the ways you can tell if a reporter has their thumb on the scales is by their choice and use of sources.  Crowley quotes only two interviewees, one GW Bush staffer and a “grand strategist” academic. Both declare that Biden has presided over conflict and is the person in charge as the world descends into chaos.  (Crowley (in his own voice) argues that the parallel is Roosevelt coaxing us into war in 1940 and ’41.)

No other voices need apply. No one with any contrary view, or praise for any Biden national security action, etc. Crowley can certainly say his piece is “accurate.” His sources said what they said and all that. But it isn’t true–because none of the rest of reality is allowed past his shutters.

If you couldn’t tell, I’m frothing with rage. I want to break things. I’ve done journalism on and off since 8th grade. These fuckers are taking a vital craft, one that is so vital to human flourishing, and are turning it into one more casualty of the billionaires’ war on civic space.

Feh.

PS: below the fold find the comment I posted at the NYT’s site itself. Feel free to pile on yourself, and maybe even write to the reporter directly. His email is listed with his bio.

Image: Circle of Rembrandt, Judas receiving the 30 pieces of silver, 17th c.

show full post on front page

This piece is a train wreck, a mini-catalogue of the ways a reporter can be factually safe and yet apply a giant thumb on the scale.

From the top: Crowley concedes that US armed forces are not at war anywhere in the globe. He does not add that this hasn’t been so from 2001 to 2021, which might be useful context. The article then turns on the assertion that despite this unchallenged fact, it “seems” as if Biden is a wartime leader. As, in we’re not at war but the vibes feel like we are so we are.

Crowley argues that because Biden has led public opinion to oppose Russia’s war, we’re at war. This reasoning was not applied to Reagan’s direct interventions  during the Soviet Union’s own Afghan war. IOKIYAR indeed! Another thumb: Crowley’s distaste for the way Biden talks about conflict.

I’ll run out of space before the article runs out of errors. So, quickly: see the careful & thin selection of sources. Crowley quotes just 2: a grand strategist (an often-in-error-never-in-doubt discipline) & a ex-GW Bush staffer. No thinker who could offer a contrary view need apply.

Then Crowley challenges and interprets every Biden quote. Does he do the same for Trump’s self-aggrandizing statements. He does not.

And finally, a last reminder of the tissue-thin evidence adduced here, the piece ends with a source saying, again w/out evidence, that it “seem[s] to be a general sense (sic!) that the world is out of control.

I teach journalism. I’d show my students this piece as a how-not-to.

The New York Times Is An Arm Of The Trump CampaignPost + Comments (104)

Friday Evening Open Thread: Last Night’s Last Word

by Anne Laurie|  August 9, 20245:22 pm| 220 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Excellent Links, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Every national political reporter should watch it, & most should hang their heads in shame. https://t.co/XXJ8fUsfeF

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) August 9, 2024


 
Lawrence O’Donnell’s monologue from last night is getting a lot of attention on social media, plus at least one request from a commentor here to front-page it. So, here’s an intro:

“It was 2016 all over again today … the same mistakes are being made” — @lawrence ?????? pic.twitter.com/CxfddzLjuX

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) August 9, 2024

And here’s the full thing, via MSNBC’s YouTube channel:

 

One thing does: they like him and want him to win. https://t.co/bCGIKmFG3Q

— Jean-Michel Connard ??? (@torriangray) August 8, 2024

Friday Evening Open Thread: Last Night’s <em>Last Word</em>Post + Comments (220)

This Is Very Tim Walz

by WaterGirl|  August 9, 20241:06 pm| 337 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I don’t know if this is real or photoshopped, but this is very Tim Walz, whether it is actually Tim Walz or not!

I really cannot overstate the big dad energy of walz. pic.twitter.com/ySMlZG8iOA

— karl (sad trombone noise enthusiast) (@brainnotonyet) August 6, 2024

h/t  JCJ

The whole image, so you don’t want to click on twitter:

Update:  While we’re on the subject, this is very JV Vance.

h/t JWR

Clearly photoshopped, but undeniably VERY Vance.

This Is Very Tim WalzPost + Comments (337)

Watch the Balloon Juice Zoom with NC Black Alliance (Just $250 needed to reach our goal)

by WaterGirl|  August 9, 202410:00 am| 47 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I want to share some of the feedback we got from Bj peeps who attended the zoom with NC Black Alliance.

This one:

“I think this might be the best zoom ever with one of our organizations!”

And this one:

“The NC Black Alliance zoom was as good as WG said it would be. They are doing so much now, they’re so dedicated and thorough in their work–I don’t think they’ll be sleeping at all from Sept-Nov. I hope there are groups like them throughout the south. Again–thanks to NC Black Alliance, WG, angel matches, and all who donate–and to John who came by as well!!!”

And this one:

I want to offer an Angel Match. Listening to Marcus Bass tonight had a huge effect on me. I am not a person who is going to knock on doors, even in a safe, friendly area, and I want to help fund and protect the people who are willing to do that.

Two individuals are responsible for me deciding to do this: One is Marcus and everything he said, and the gravity of it, and the hope of it, and second is you [WaterGirl] saying that you wanted to give NC Black Alliance more money— those two factors are responsible for my decision.

If you can, please let Marcus know that he is the instigator for this Angel Match.

I hope others who attended will chime in as well.

Please think about watching the zoom – they put together a great presentation for us, the questions people asked were great, and the responses and the back-and-forth were even better.

I can almost guarantee that you’ll come away with a better understanding of the times we are in and what we’re facing.  But most of all, I think you’ll come away inspired.

We have one more Balloon Juice Angel for NC Black Alliance – for $1,250.   BJ Angel + external match = 4x donations.


Donate

Watch the Balloon Juice Zoom with NC Black Alliance (Just $250 needed to reach our goal)Post + Comments (47)

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