The EU’s decision on €50 billion for Ukraine means that Ukrainians have financial guarantees for social stability – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

1 February 2024 – 23:15

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

We continue this week with good dynamics for Ukraine – with events that are contributing to the country’s strength.

Today the EU has made a long-awaited decision: €50 billion for Ukraine. A support program. A long-term program for four years. This means Ukrainians have financial guarantees for our social stability. The decision was adopted today at the meeting of the European Council – at the level of leaders. The Ukrainian team and our friends in the EU have been working quite thoroughly and actively for this decision – through various channels and at various levels. The key thing is that this decision is now in place and that it is a unanimous decision of Europe. I thank all our friends who helped, and, of course, our entire team, Ukrainian international relations officials: the government, the Office, everyone who was involved. I raised this issue of support for Ukraine with every European leader in my talks. I am grateful to each of the 27 EU countries and the heads of European institutions. Now it is important that the distribution of these funds is carried out similarly to the previous format of support: the first two tranches require a larger amount – 18 billion euros per year, and then the state’s resilience will be greater. The teams of Ukraine and the European Union will work on this issue. Today, in my address to the European Council, I also reminded about our other two goals for the year. This is the creation of an appropriate Ukraine Assistance Fund within the European Peace Facility to maintain our defense capabilities and our defensive actions at the front. This is also the preparation of this year’s Global Peace Summit in Switzerland – an event the organization of which I have invited all leaders of the European community to join.

The second thing worth mentioning today.

The release of our guys from captivity, which took place yesterday, was a very emotional event. Now all 207 guys are in the process of rehabilitation and recovery. Each is being provided with all the necessary assistance. Everyone is already in touch with their families. Families and friends can visit them all. And every time our people are back home, it proves that Ukraine is working to bring everyone back. We do not forget anyone. Sometimes the exchange can be significantly complicated by different situations. Some people sometimes say that the exchange is even impossible. But we are looking for ways. We are looking for intermediaries. And I am grateful to everyone who helps Ukraine. The Ukrainian team is continuing its work on the next exchanges.

Thirdly.

We continue to work on security commitments for Ukraine. Today, another round of negotiations took place in Berlin – we are preparing the relevant agreement. I am grateful to the German side for its pragmatic and at the same time value-based approach. We are also working with other states and we can already see that we are achieving a very extensive and comprehensive system of security commitments. In all those areas that are critical for the normal life of any democratic country. And there is a lot of work to be done on each such agreement and its implementation. With this system of security commitments, Ukraine can now create a new model for ensuring the protection of the states of the free world while they are outside of effective security alliances. And, of course, we are working to make progress with NATO for our country – we have already decided on Ukraine’s position on the expected results of the NATO Summit in Washington this year.

Fourthly.

Today, I signed several new decrees on honoring our warriors with state awards. 294 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Different brigades, different directions. But equally vital battles. The bravery without which Ukraine would not have been able to withstand. The strength that ensures Ukraine’s independence and its own path in this world. We must be grateful to each and every one of our warriors – all the defenders, all those who strengthen our defense and help it. In total, since February 24, almost 70 thousand of our warriors have been honored with state awards. To be precise, 69,945 have been honored as of today. All elements of our Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine. The Army. The National Guard. The Security Service of Ukraine. The National Police. The State Border Guard Service. The State Emergency Service. The Foreign Intelligence Service. The Department of the State Protection. The State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection. And, of course, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. Today, by the way, the guys have achieved another hit – this time at sea. A spectacular addition to the Russian submarine fleet. Thank you!

And the fifth thing that is important.

Today, Europe has demonstrated exactly the kind of unity that is needed. 27 countries – together. The EU institutions – in full cooperation. This is a clear signal to Moscow that Europe will withstand and that Europe will not be broken by any destructive waves that the Kremlin always comes up with. But at the same time, it is a clear signal across the Atlantic that Europe is taking on commitments. Security commitments. Strong commitments. We are waiting for America’s decisions.

I thank everyone who stands with freedom! I thank everyone who adds their personal strength to the strength of the whole of Ukraine! We can win!

We must win!

Glory to Ukraine!

Yes, you read that right. The EU finally got the stick out of Orban’s tuchas.

https://twitter.com/CharlesMichel/status/1753001809268920719

The Financial Times has the details:

The EU has agreed a deal on a €50bn financial support package for Ukraine after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán caved to pressure from his fellow leaders and rescinded his veto on the aid.

The compromise, reached at the start of an emergency EU summit, came after an unprecedented campaign of pressure on Orbán, the bloc’s only member that has kept friendly relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin since he launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine almost two years ago.

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said Thursday’s agreement showed “Europe’s unwavering commitment to supporting Ukraine”.

“We know Ukraine is fighting for us . . . so we will provide them with much-needed stability,” she said. “This sent a very strong message to Putin.”

Officials had warned of an irreparable rupture within the bloc if Hungary’s leader maintained his veto on the €50bn package, which Kyiv says is critical for its financial stability as it fights back against Russia’s invasion.

Orbán’s refusal to budge in recent weeks has led the bloc to test different approaches, from offering financial incentives to exploring the economic consequences of a complete cut-off from EU funding.

It also prompted discussions among some capitals about the possibility of stripping Budapest of its voting rights.

Charles Michel, president of the European Council, who chairs the leaders’ discussions, said the compromise “locks in steadfast, long-term, predictable funding for Ukraine”.

The agreement includes a provision for EU leaders to hold an annual debate on the implementation of the aid package and the possibility for a review in two years, if all member states agree.

“The stakes were really high for us if we had lost this,” said one senior EU official. “A really dark path.”

Orbán said he accepted the offer after negotiating a “control mechanism, which guarantees a rational use of the monies”.

“I am glad that the reaction of markets and players of the economy is already positive on this agreement,” he added.

The European parliament must now sign off on the increase to the EU’s budget that includes the €50bn for Ukraine. The vote is set to take place at the end of February, which means the earliest the money can start flowing to Ukraine is in March, EU officials said.

The EU aid package, which will fund Kyiv over four years, is critical to keeping Ukraine’s economy afloat as the Joe Biden administration has failed to win US Congressional support for its own $60bn support package. Ukrainian officials have warned of a potential budget crisis if western aid is stopped altogether.

Much more at the link.

The cost:

https://twitter.com/BlackMapleCo/status/1752846540442358161

The reason:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1753039697792684380

Meet Alona, call sign “Vitaminka”.

When the russia’s full-scale invasion started, she was only 17 years old. At the age of 18, she joined the AFU. Alona is now 19 and serves as a senior combat medic.

“I’d like to start a family in the future, give birth to children, and not spend my whole life in the army and at war. But so far, the reality is like this, and I came to help, to save the lives of her brothers-in-arms,” says Alona.

📸: 107th @TDF_UA Brigade

https://twitter.com/Harri_Est/status/1752832056428556627

You can’t even imagine how many defenders have told me that they don’t want to fight anyone or kill anyone, they just want a peaceful life for their family and children! At the same time they say, I don’t have much choice, I have to fight, as if I don’t, my children and family wont have future😣

CNN published an essay by General Zaluzhnyi today. Many people have interpreted it as a shot across Zelenskyy’s bow in regard to Zaluzhnyi being replaced. According to CNN has noted that it was written before the expected announcement, but it is unclear that means before President Zelenskyy informed GEN Zaluzhnyi he was going to replace him or after their meeting Monday, but before a formal announcement is made. Here are some excerpts: (emphasis mine)

Editor’s Note: Valerii Zaluzhnyi has been Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2021. This article was written before an expected announcement of his dismissal. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read a detailed CNN analysis of this article here, and the full essay here.

CNN — 

The Second World War drew to a close almost 80 years ago, but its legacy in defining the strategic vision of war persists to this day.

Whatever remarkable advances there have been in the fields of aviation, missile technology and space-based assets, for instance, the concept of victory remains unchanged: to destroy the enemy and to capture or liberate territory.

And yet, each war is unique.

And there is no greater challenge facing the military commander, in my opinion, than understanding – in good time – how each war is shaped differently.

Firstly, by technological progress, which determines the development of weapons and equipment.

And, secondly, by political conditions at home and abroad, and the economic environment.

Victory needs a unique strategy and follows a unique logic.

It is well known by now that a central driver of this war is the development of unmanned weapons systems.

They are proliferating at a breathtaking pace and the scope of their applications grows ever wider.

Crucially, it is these unmanned systems – such as drones –  along with other types of advanced weapons, that provide the best way for Ukraine to avoid being drawn into a positional war, where we do not possess the advantage.

But while mastery of such technologies is key, it is not the only factor influencing current strategy.

We must contend with a reduction in military support from key allies, grappling with their own political tensions. 

Our partners’ stocks of missiles, air defense interceptors and ammunition for artillery is becoming exhausted, due to the intensity of hostilities in Ukraine, but also from a global shortage of propellant charges.

Russia, taking note of how developments in the Middle East have distracted international attention, might seek to provoke further conflicts elsewhere.

The weakness of the international sanctions’ regime means Russia, in partnership with certain others, is still able to deploy its military-industrial complex in pursuit of a war of attrition against us.

We must acknowledge the significant advantage enjoyed by the enemy in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures.

Finally, we remain hamstrung by the imperfections of the regulatory framework in our country, as well as the partial monopolization of the defense industry. These lead to production bottlenecks – in ammunition, for instance – which further deepen Ukraine’s dependence on its allies for supplies.

Our combat experience, particularly since 2022, is unique – but in the interests of victory, we must constantly find new ways and new capabilities to help us gain an advantage over the enemy.

Perhaps the number one priority here is mastery of an entire arsenal of (relatively) cheap, modern and highly effective, unmanned vehicles and other technological means.

Already such assets allow commanders to monitor the situation on the battlefield in real time, day and night, and in all weather conditions.

But not only that.

They provide real-time intelligence allowing the adjustment of fire around the clock, without pause – giving us the ability to deliver high-precision strikes against enemy targets in forward positions and in depth.

In short, this means nothing less than the wholesale redesign of battlefield operations – and the abandoning of outdated, stereotypical thinking.

New operations might include digital field creation, radio-electronic environment control, or a combined operation using attack drones and cyber assets.

Such operations will be coordinated and conducted under a single concept and plan.

Crucially, the aim will not always be solely combat in focus.

It might seek to reduce the economic capabilities of the enemy, or to isolate, or wear him down.

Attack operations can have psychological objectives.

That said, for the time being, the priority remains improving the situation on the battlefield.

And here, technology boasts an undoubted superiority over tradition.

The challenge for our armed forces cannot be underestimated.

It is to create a completely new state system of technological rearmament.

Taking everything into account at this moment, we think the creation of such a system could be achieved in five months.

Our partners are of the same view.

This time will be spent creating an appropriate organizational structure, filling and equipping positions, providing training and support, building out the supporting infrastructure and logistics, and developing a doctrinal framework.

In conclusion, in 2024, we must focus our main efforts in three areas.

Creating a system to provide our armed forces with high-tech assets.

Introducing a new philosophy of training and warfare which takes account of restrictions in assets and how they can be deployed.

And mastering new combat capabilities as soon as possible.

We already possess capabilities to eliminate the enemy and ensure the existence of statehood.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1753179378463179133

To me, Gen Zaluzhny’s new essay from today is largely a message:

“I know I have broad popular support in the country and that my dismissal will trigger an uproar. I will not leave unless I’m ordered to. I have a plan and a to-do list for war. I see a way to go and I say it in the public – and now it’s your turn to decide what’s next.”

Tatarigami and his team have a new assessment out. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1753087494063554852

2/ In January, our team recorded 14 concentrations of artillery and enemy forces, echoing Spring 2023 observations. In this example, vehicle revetments were stocked with supplies and vehicles. We have monitored this specific operational site persisting for multiple weeks

3/ Importantly, this doesn’t mean a total loss of Ukraine’s counter-battery capabilities. Multiple OSINT projects consistently document Russian artillery losses. Nevertheless, the prevailing pattern highlights a present challenge of inadequate counter-battery fire. 

4/ This allows Russia to employ a familiar tactic: the complete destruction of urban areas, making them indefensible and asserting a claim of “liberation” afterward. Mar’inka is a good example, where the entire town was obliterated

5/ Based on our observations, numerous artillery pieces are positioned at distances ranging from 15 to 24 kilometers away from the frontline, rendering them beyond the practical reach of many small FPVs—unless equipped with retransmitting drones to boost their signal. 

6/ Despite several successful FPV engagements with enemy artillery, these cases are limited and lack the widespread influence needed to significantly impact the overall situation. We anticipate a shift over time, but at this moment the impact is relatively small. 

7/ In summary, Ukraine faces increasing challenges countering Russian artillery, providing Russia an opportunity to inflict significant damage and losses. Urgent EU or US measures, such as supplying additional artillery and ammunition, are crucial to mitigate the problem. 

8/ Kindly like and share the first message of our thread. Consider supporting us through BuyMeaCoffee, as our expenses rely solely on your public support, and maintaining quality without financing is still challenging for us. Thank you

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1753192421091877031

RussiaNoContext channel publishes footage from Kherson Oblast’s left bank (occupied) where a Russian Grad launcher was hit by an FPV drone while deploying. Not much left from the system. The comment is as follows:

“FPV drones have become increasingly active in the skies, attacking anything that gets in their way. They chase fighters, cars and even combat vehicles. In this situation, the BM-21 Grad took a position and was preparing to fire with a full ammo, but it was attacked by an enemy kamikaze drone, causing an explosion and the complete destruction of the vehicle and its crew.”

Also notable is distance from the shore (10km) that drone had to cover.

https://t.me/russianocontext/1933

 

Belbek air field, Russian occupied Sevastopol, Crimea:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1753055520745758786

/5. Regarding the strikes on the Belbek military airfield near Sevastopol from a source who often publishes information that is later confirmed. However, I still do not recommend taking these comments at face value.

«🚀Regarding the missile attack on the Belbek airfield in Crimea.

Yesterday, January 31, 2024, a missile attack was carried out on the Belbek airfield near Sevastopol.

Seven British-French-made Storm Shadow/SCALP were launched towards the airfield. Four were shot down by air defense forces, three hit the target.

Between 17:31 and 17:42, two missiles hit the command post of the 38th Fighter Aviation Regiment (military unit 80159, Belbek). Another hit the airfield communications point.

I cannot confirm the information disseminated by other Telegram channels regarding the destruction of aircrafts. Some planes perhaps have suffered some collateral damage, but nothing more.

According to available information, 10 military personnel were killed as a result of the strike. Among the dead is the commander of the aviation squadron of the fighter regiment, Alexander Tatarenko.

It is worth noting that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are using new flight routes for cruise missiles. This time (unlike previous ones), most of the missiles passed over the water surface of the Black Sea. Air defence work on Ukrainian missiles took place directly above the airfield itself.»

https://t.me/dosye_shpiona/486

 

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1753144688263991367

That’s enough for today.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1752961642625696169