Today we managed to free another 207 Ukrainians from Russian captivity, returning a total of 3,035 people; we will do everything to bring everyone back – address by the President of Ukraine

31 January 2024 – 16:04

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

I have some good news to share. This is the kind of news we are all waiting for. Today we managed to free another two hundred and seven Ukrainians from Russian captivity. One hundred and eighty privates and sergeants. Twenty-seven officers. Almost half of them are defenders of Mariupol. Warriors of the Armed Forces, the National Guard, units of the State Border Guard Service and the National Police. Two hundred and seven guys will soon be home with their families. Two hundred and seven families are already happy. I am sure the guys are already calling home, and have heard the most important words already. I am happy that we are succeeding in this.

This is already the fiftieth exchange during the full-scale war. In total, we managed to return three thousand thirty-five people. And we will do everything to bring back each and every one of them. We have not forgotten about anyone. We are looking for every single surname.

I would like to thank our entire team engaged in this work. Kyrylo Budanov. Andriy Yermak. Vasyl Maliuk. Dmytro Usov. Ihor Klymenko. Dmytro Lubinets. I am grateful to everyone who helps. We often heard at different moments that it would not work. When you know what to do, everything works out, even things that may seem impossible to some. Ukraine knows how to achieve its goals!

Glory to Ukraine!

Germany:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1752657338916294961

We are grateful to our German friends for their steadfast support. Assisting Ukraine in its fight against the aggressors is an investment in Europe’s future peace and stability.
A new military aid package from Germany includes:
◾️3 Wisent 1 mine clearing tanks
◾️1 Beaver bridge-laying tank
◾️24 Armoured Personnel Carriers
◾️4 BV206 tracked all-terrain vehicles
◾️IRIS-T SLS missiles
◾️14 mine ploughs
◾️1 naval mine clearance system
◾️1 Satcom surveillance system
◾️4 border protection vehicles
◾️1,040 rounds 155mm ammunition
◾️450 snow chains
◾️194,000 single module group rations

🇺🇦🤝🇩🇪
#StandWithUkraine
@BMVg_Bundeswehr

Meanwhile, in the GOP majority House of Representatives in Washington, DC:

https://twitter.com/SpeakerJohnson/status/1752460074583232547

https://twitter.com/ClaireBerlinski/status/1752719652910780740

The EU isn’t doing much better:

The Financial Times has published the letter the EU leaders have written calling for a long term commitment to Ukraine:

Ukraine’s will to fight persists and serves as an inspiration to all of us who cherish freedom and justice. But crucial problems loom: Ukraine has insufficient amounts of artillery ammunition. And commitments for military support risk falling short of Ukraine’s needs.

At the beginning of last year, the EU committed itself to an ambitious goal of supplying Ukraine with 1mn artillery rounds before the end of March 2024. The hard truth: we have fallen short of this goal.

But we can’t just give up on our promise. If Ukrainian soldiers are to keep up the fight, the need for ammunition is overwhelming. And the EU member states’ delivery of arms and ammunition to Ukraine is more important than ever.

The EU and its member states have been strong supporters of Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. And with tangible success: Russia has not been able to achieve any of its goals in the war it started. But our efforts must not wither.

We must renew our resolve and redouble our efforts in order to ensure that we sustain our support for as long as it takes. What is urgent today is to provide the ammunition and weapon systems, including howitzers, tanks, UAVs and air defence, that Ukraine so urgently needs on the ground. Now. Because new orders we place today will only reach the battlefield by next year. We must therefore insist on finding ways to accelerate the delivery of the promised artillery rounds to Ukraine. It can be through donation of existing stocks or joint procurement of ammunition through our defence industries. This requires expanding industrial capacities in Europe through framework procurement contracts and sustainable investments by member states. Partner countries could play an important role as well and are invited to join in our collective effort.

The ways are less important. The ends and means are critical. The signatories to this letter have already co-operated on donations to Ukraine, including the delivery of main battle tanks, howitzers, artillery ammunition and reconnaissance drones for Ukraine. We will continue to explore all options and invite allies and partners to co-fund initiatives.

Our ability to continue to support and sustain Ukraine’s defence, both during the winter and in the longer term, is decisive. In fact, it is a matter of our common European security, and for the brave women and men of the Ukrainian armed forces a question of life and death.

The EU and its member states must renew their efforts and step up their military support. The burden is so great that all states need to do everything they can to support Ukraine — it must continue to be a collective effort.

We call on friends and partners of Ukraine to recommit to sustainable long-term military support for Ukraine as a joint European responsibility. This decision must be taken by each and every country. Only then will Ukraine be able to succeed in its defence against Russian aggression.

Russia doesn’t wait for anybody and we need to act now. If Ukraine loses, the long-term consequences and costs will be much higher for all of us. We Europeans have a special responsibility. Therefore, we must act. Europe’s future depends on it.

Olaf Scholz
Chancellor of Germany

Mette Frederiksen
Prime minister of Denmark

Petr Fiala
Prime minister of the Czech Republic

Kaja Kallas
Prime minister of Estonia

Mark Rutte
Prime minister of the Netherlands

 

Here’s a response from the head of the Servant of the People Party, which is the political party President Zelenskyy belongs to.

https://twitter.com/OlenaShuliak/status/1752663304567136748

The harsh truth is that the promised 1 million EU shells for #Ukraine did not materialize. Therefore, with all due respect, “support for as long as it takes” should be replaced by “support as effectively as it is needed right now.” This is not a matter of slogans, but of Europe’s readiness to defend itself.

Given the news and reporting around President Zelenskyy’s intention to replace General Zaluzhnyi, we need to talk about civil-military relations.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1752742738594775249

From The Kyiv Post:

Support for Ukrainian military commander Valery Zaluzhny is close to universal among troops and a possible plan of President Volodymyr Zelensky to replace him, if it exists, is dangerous to national security and the war effort, soldiers recently interviewed by Kyiv Post said.

Several fighters suggested the Ukrainian president was, with possible Zaluzhny replacement plans, placing his and his government’s popularity with voters ahead of national security.

Frustration with civilian politicians, either ignorant of or not caring about difficult conditions faced by front line soldiers, was a common theme among the total of ten service members interviewed on Wednesday.

All were long-term Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) service members either deployed to the front lines or recently returned from forward operations and known to Kyiv Post for months and in some instances years.

Almost all were men aged 20-45 with at least a year of combat experience. Most had fought on multiple fronts. Ranks ranged from private to captain.

In most cases Kyiv Post interviewed the AFU service members by messenger app or telephone. Interviewees identified themselves but asked their names not be published in order to speak freely. Kyiv Post respected the requests.

In one case a soldier refused even to speak on background because, he said, even the mention of Zaluzhny’s possible ouster in public would assist Russian Federation propaganda.

Timur, a Special Operation Forces operator, said that were Zaluzhny actually replaced, it probably would not affect soldier morale substantially, and that in any case the war would go on. Zaluzhny and his aggressive tactics against Russian forces are popular with troops, he said.

“I don’t think that this situation with Zaluzhny has a strong effect on the fighters at the front,” said Timur. “And I don’t think that with the help of this situation it’s possible to put pressure on the military at the front. There’s no panic. People understand that there’s a war going on, and it’s going on at all levels. The information war has been going on for a long time and it will continue.

“Although this situation may affect some. But for my people, for my unit, I can say that we react to it normally… Normal military personnel, including staff officers, treat him with respect… I personally don’t know of and haven’t heard from any in the military that they don’t like Zaluzhny,” Timur said.

Maksym, a reconnaissance company commander currently deployed to the Bakhmut sector, said that the men in his unit know of possible turmoil at the top of the chain of command, and that for them it would be better if Zaluzhny and his staff were left alone to fight the war without politician interference. In any case, he said, right now discussion of turnover at the top of the AFU is all rumors, he said.

“We’ve heard the reports,” Maksym said. “Maybe it’s fake news, maybe it’s not. We don’t know. For us things are the same. We have work to do. We have to fight.”

A fighter serving with a drone unit accused Zelensky and the national political leadership of intriguing behind Zaluzhny’s back and trying to advance their personal careers.

The drone operator said politicians in Kyiv have no idea of Zaluzhny’s military skill and how the war is really being fought, and talks of replacing him amount to betrayal of Ukraine’s national interests.

He continued: “At the front, soldiers think that (Zelensky Chief of Staff Andriy) Yermak is a [vulgar] and that stupid [vulgar] Zelensky is the same thing.

“As for Zaluzhny, everyone has the unanimous opinion that the army consists only of him, the infantry, the artillery and unmanned aerial vehicles. Everything else is dead weight that holds us [fighting troops] back…

“I will say this: you can replace a car, a woman, a president, even a country. But you can’t replace Zaluzhny!!!”

A representative of a partisan group operating behind Russian lines in Mariupol, through intermediaries, said that public discussion of Zaluzhny’s removal advances Russian war aims and Ukrainian officials doing that should be punished harshly.

“Whoever started this is the enemy,” said the partisan. “Politics and careerism in time of war are treason… We know that all contacts and operations (or partisan work) would not have taken place without the assistance of Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny. All of them [wanting Zaluzhny sacked] should go to [vulgar].”

There’s much more at the link!

Late last night YY_Sima Qian posted the link to this thread from retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan regarding what he thinks the key issues are here. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1752482925688582469

2/ The tensions in this relationship have been apparent for some time. During my first 2023 visit to #Ukraine early last year, I was informed that Zaluzhnyi had been forbidden from speaking to the press without Presidential approval. 

3/ The lack of success in the 2023 counter-offensive, the interview by General Zaluzhnyi in @TheEconomist in late 2023, and perceptions about his presidential aspirations all appear to have built to a crescendo in the past few days. 

4/ It should be stated up front that in peace and war, tensions are always present in civil-military relationships. There is sufficient modern scholarship on this topic that demonstrates this. But, in democracies, it is an unequal dialog. The civilian leader has primacy. 

5/ If Zaluzhnyi is removed (again, not confirmed), there would be many examinations of the wreckage that got us to this point. That is not my intent here. My focus instead is on the key impacts of a possible Zaluzhnyi dismissal. I believe there are six. 

6/ Impact 1. Command of UAF. Zaluzhnyi has been a charismatic & popular leader who prepared in the weeks before the Russian large-scale invasion. He is also an intellectual leader, having written two influential articles on the trajectory of the war and Ukraine’s strategy. 

7/ He also cares deeply for the lives of his troops, and is not an overtly political general. This is not a common combination. It is what sets Zaluzhnyi apart from his peers.

8/ This mix of professional competence, delegation, moral courage, intellectual humility and curiosity are vital strategic leadership traits and will be hard to replace. 

9/ Impact 2. Successive changes down the chain. A Zaluzhnyi removal would assume that a suitable replacement is found. But in every high-level appointment there are successive moves of personnel well down the chain of command. 

10/ This will be a little disruptive, but it is also what military organisations are designed for. Any change in the commander in chief will also change the fortunes of many other senior military leaders. Some will rise and some who were previously on the rise will stagnate. 

11/ Impact 3. Advice to the President. A key role of the C-in-C is military advice to the President. This will obviously change with a new C-in-C. Given Zaluzhnyi’s experience as C-in-C in this war, & qualities described above, it will take time for the new C-in-C to settle in. 

12/ Impact 4. Relationships with allies and security partners. While the Defence Minister is the primary interlocutor with foreign nations on military assistance, this is based on Zaluzhnyi’s priorities. The C-in-C maintains close links with US and NATO military chiefs. 

13/ These would have to be re-established if a new C-in-C takes over. This would take time, but would be facilitated by the enormous good will towards #Ukraine among NATO military institutions and leaders. 

14/ Impact 5. Perceptions of government instability. This is a danger area for Zelenskyy. There may be some, particularly in the US Congress, who could use a change in the C-in-C and the public fallout afterwards, as additional evidence for why they shouldn’t support #Ukraine.

15/ As such, the government narrative and information strategy in the wake of any removal of the C-in-C would be vital to get right. 

16/ Impact 6. Russian info operations. The Russian president is acting as if he is on the road to victory. This is a deliberate strategy to influence US Congress members, & other politicians around the world, that Russian victory is inevitable & support for Ukraine is wasted. 

17/ Any removal of Zaluzhnyi would play into this Russian strategic narrative. While the removal of the C-in-C is the prerogative of a civilian leader in any democracy, it will still come with political and strategic information costs. 

18/ Impact 7. The Future of Zaluzhnyi. The current C-in-C won’t disappear if he is sacked by Zelenskyy. While it has been reported that he has been offered alternative national security appointments, finding the right appointment for Zaluzhnyi will be difficult. 

19/ He has experience, stature, networks and leadership skills that will be difficult to reconcile with staff appointments. My sense however is that while Zaluzhnyi will not want to go, he is also first and foremost a soldier and servant of his country. 

20/ It is very likely that he will not want to make the war effort more difficult for his nation by drawing out any removal. 

21/ I won’t address presidential aspirations here. Projecting such aspirations on Zaluzhnyi without evidence is unfair to him. 

22/ The civ-mil relationship between President and C-in-C is clearly at breaking point & in a place where only 1 of 2 things can happen: 1. A significant reconciliation; or, 2. Someone has to go. In democracies, that ‘someone’ is always the senior military person. 

23/ There is an abundance of ambiguity about the next few hours and days in this civil-military crisis in #Ukraine. Like many, I am a huge admirer of General Zaluzhnyi and the stellar leadership he has provided to the Ukrainian military. 

24/ But, unfortunately, if this speculation continues he may soon reach a point of no return in his relationship with the President. That is a tragedy for #Ukraine. However, such crises are also the nature of civil-military relationships in democracies during peace and war. End.

25/ Thank you to the following for the insights, images and links used in this thread: @IAPonomarenko @shashj @DefenceU @CinC_AFU @KyivIndependent @reuters @olliecarroll @ChristopherJM 

Hopefully everyone noticed my (deliberate) mistake in this thread: there are 7 key impacts, not 6!!! 

MG Ryan’s assessment is very good, but I want to talk about something else. One of the hallmarks of liberal democratic states and societies is civilian control over the military. This is known as civil-military relations. Leaving aside who is actually to blame for Ukraine’s inability to make large gains in the Autumn offensive known as the 2023 counteroffensive*, properly functioning liberal democracies subordinate the military power and control of the military under the civilian head of government. Even during war time. Under this conceptualization of civil-military relations, President Zelenskyy’s intention to remove and reassign General Zaluzhnyi should not be considered out of the ordinary. Which is different than whether it is a good idea in terms of Ukraine being able to achieve its strategic objectives. Moreover, the Chief of the Armed Forces, which is the position that GEN Zaluzhnyi holds and is equivalent to the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, serves as the head of government’s senior military advisor. If the relationship between President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi has deteriorated or, even worse, become dysfunctional and/or toxic, then neither of them, nor the Armed Forces of Ukraine, nor Ukraine itself is being well served. Additionally, no matter how positively we all may view each of them from a distance, you don’t become president of a state nor its most senior general officer/flag officer without a certain amount of ego. And most certainly not without being or becoming an effective politician.

I do not know what the resolution of this is. I have no idea whether there’s a right and wrong, two rights, or two wrongs involved in the breakdown of this relationship. I do know that part of the bullet list US Army War College Seminar 12 short course that we would give the students on the first day included personalities matter and relationships matter. If these two personalities are no longer meshing and the relationship is deteriorating, then it is time for a change. If the concern is that GEN Zaluzhnyi is untouchable because of how the troops view him, then that is a significant problem for Ukraine in demonstrating to the EU and NATO that it is suitable for membership. I’ll leave it here for now as we watch and see how things develop over the next week or so.

* A lot of the blame for Ukraine’s inability to make large gains is the fact that its ostensible allies – the US, the EU, EU member states, NATO, and NATO member states failed to actually either provide what Ukraine needed despite having the ability to do so (the US) or to actually live up to the commitments made to provision Ukraine (the EU). Because Ukraine did not have what it needed when it needed it, Russia was able to dig in, create strategic depth for itself, and, as a result, Ukraine had to slowly bore hard wood. There was no lack of Ukrainian will. There was and still is a lack of the ways and means that Ukraine has been begging its allies to provide.

LTG Budanov, currently the Commander of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence/the HUR, as well as one potential replacement for GEN Zaluzhnyi, has some thoughts on what Ukraine needs to be successful.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1752764028244394314

From CNN:

KyivCNN — 

Aid to Ukraine is frozen in US Congress, and Kyiv could be dealing with a Trump presidency more sympathetic to Moscow. But Ukraine’s spy chief isn’t losing any sleep over the US.

“I don’t worry much about it,” Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence directorate, told CNN in an exclusive interview in Kyiv.

Trump “is an experienced person. He has fallen many times and gotten back up again. And this is a very serious trait,” Budanov said of the former president who has made no secret of his desire to cut US support for Ukraine and whose allies in Congress are opposing efforts to authorize more aid.

In a wide-ranging interview, the military spy chief made clear Ukraine’s desperate need for more ammunition and weapons to hold back Russian assaults, even as he dismissed the risk of the US leaving Ukraine out in the cold.

“We are expecting a positive decision anyway,” Budanov said of the US debate over aid, “To say that [Trump] and the Republican Party are lovers of the Russian Federation is complete nonsense.”

Trump boasted this month on social media that he would rather trust Putin over some American intelligence officers, and famously backed the Russian leader during his presidency.

As head of Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, whose strength lies in intelligence-gathering and secretive special forces raids, Budanov has gained a reputation as being a man of few words but one who delivers results.

His agency has claimed notable successes, including raids on the Russian-occupied Crimea and attacks on Russian airfields, inflicting embarrassing wounds on the Kremlin.

Earlier in his career, Budanov fought and was injured on the front lines in eastern Ukraine, shortly after Russia first invaded its southern neighbor in 2014.

A figure of ire for the Kremlin, Budanov has been the target of Russian assassination at least 10 times in his career, the Ukrainians say. Late last year, they may have got close to him. His wife was hospitalized with apparent heavy metals poisoning, according to Ukrainian and western officials, in an attack that many suspected to be Russia’s doing.

Known to have strong ties with President Zelensky, the 38-year-old is seen to represent a new generation of military leaders.

At the same time, his utterances, and carefully cultivated public profile, have attracted some criticism. An enigmatic video appearance ahead of the largely stalled counteroffensive is seen now as one of several messages from Ukrainian officials that served to raise expectations too high about what Ukraine’s armed forces could achieve.

With rumors swirling that Zelensky could soon sack Valeriy Zaluzhny, the popular commander-in-chief of the army, Budanov is seen as a possible replacement. Budanov would not be drawn on the reports, saying “I personally have no conflict with anyone.”

Amid fierce Russian assaults along Ukraine’s frontlines, ammunition shortages and exhausted troops, Ukraine’s spy chief has one clear priority: more Western support.

“We really need this aid,” Budanov told CNN.

Artillery systems – howitzers – were top of the list, with Ukraine needing a “sharp increase” in the number of guns, Budanov said, regardless of their age and type, as years of fighting take their toll on Ukraine’s long-range cannons.

Ammunition is vital too, he said, as “shells are one of the most decisive factors in this war.”

“Not so much the quality as the quantity,” he added. Ukraine has never managed to outgun Russian firepower, even after Moscow turned to North Korea to keep its ammunition flowing.

CNN has seen Western-made guns supplied with smoke shells instead of high-explosive munitions in Ukrainian frontline units, as shortages hit the battlefield.

But Ukraine is holding its own in the air above the frontlines, the spy chief said. With Russia continually learning from its combat experiences, the trend is for even greater use of unmanned drones on and above Ukraine’s battlefields.

“It is precisely in unmanned systems that we are more or less equal,” Budanov said. Ukrainian social media is bursting with footage from frontline troops showing drones spying on, attacking and even capturing Russian troops, although Moscow uses many of the same tactics.

Kyiv has also stepped up long-range attacks on targets inside Russia, with explosions reported at infrastructure sites outside major cities  far from the Ukrainian border. Russian authorities claimed to have foiled dozens of Ukrainian drone and missile attacks since the new year.

But as Ukraine’s long-held hopes for F-16 jets come to fruition – with Kyiv’s pilots already training on the aircraft – Budanov echoed Ukraine’s newest request.

He wants to see ground-attack aircraft like the American A-10 in Ukrainian hands. “This is what can really help inflict a military defeat” on Russia, he said of the aging aircraft.

Although decades old, the jet – famous for its prowess against Iraqi armor in the first Gulf War – is still lauded by its pilots and US troops, even as US Congress has looked to ax it from the US Air Force’s arsenal.

New jets may be a long shot with aid to Ukraine entangled as part of a greater compromise on US immigration policy, which has been opposed by Trump and his allies in Congress.

Budanov estimates there are more than half a million Russian troops in the occupied Ukrainian territories, but does not see much potential for movement on the front lines in the short term.

But he suggested that attacks on Russian infrastructure may grow. While refusing to acknowledge Ukrainian involvement in drone attacks in Russia, he said such operations were “quite possible.”

“Hypothetically, there is a plan according to which all this happens,” he said. “And I believe that this plan includes all the major critical infrastructure facilities and military infrastructure facilities of the Russian Federation.”

Now, Russian civilians, he said, finally “see the real picture [of war]. They see burning oil depots, destroyed buildings in factories and plants, and so on. This is all beneficial.” he said.

On Wednesday, Ukraine and Russia exchanged hundreds of prisoners of war, in the first swap following the crash of a Russian IL-76 transport aircraft. Moscow claimed Ukraine shot down the plane, which they said was carrying dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war.

In response, Budanov told CNN that Russia had provided insufficient evidence to back up their claims.

“If everything is as they say, then the first thing they should have done was to show a gruesome picture. Let’s say, the field covered with corpses. And show it to the whole world,” he said. Footage from Russian state media of the crash site, geolocated by CNN, only showed a small number of bodies around the wreckage.

Budanov was resolute in his confidence in a full victory for Ukraine over Russia, despite the public concerns over the fatigue of Ukrainian troops, Russia’s advantage in domestic military production and the lack of movement on the frontlines.

The next six months will be interesting, he said, with that period seeing the end of Russia’s ongoing push along the frontlines.

For Budanov, the war will only end one way.

“The establishment of justice – This is how it will end,” he said, “With the return of what was lost.”

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1752731717423759817

https://twitter.com/exexpat19/status/1752786096663282010

https://twitter.com/sarahrainsford/status/1752609518150635949

This is a video report at this BBC link.

Belbek Airport, Russian occupied Sevastopol, Crime:

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1752778010778890531

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1752708791794110612

The Donetsk front:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1752781461164372268

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1752711274142503347

St. Petersburg, Russia:

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1752623793980236210

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1752626795210244602

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

We are working on a new security architecture that Ukraine, the whole of Europe and the entire Euro-Atlantic region need – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

30 January 2024 – 19:30

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Briefly about this day.

I have just spoken with the President of Finland. We had a very cordial conversation. I thanked him for supporting Ukraine, our people, and our defense. I mentioned how much Finland has done for its own security and for the security of the whole of Europe – historic things indeed. We have meaningful bilateral cooperation, the most extensive one since Ukraine gained its independence. We also emphasized how important it is for our states and all our partners to remain principled in their relations in European and Euro-Atlantic structures with regard to our region, the eastern flank of Europe.

I had a meeting with Anders Fogh Rasmussen – we are working together on a new security architecture that Ukraine, the whole of Europe, and the entire Euro-Atlantic region need. Mr. Rasmussen, with his experience as NATO Secretary General, helped Ukraine with the security commitment system: its philosophy and possible framework were developed in an expert group headed by Rasmussen and Andriy Yermak.

We now have a community of 32 states that have joined the G7 Declaration on security commitments, as well as the first bilateral agreement – with the UK. There will also be new agreements. We are now finalizing the text of several documents. This work is very important.

And now Mr. Rasmussen has outlined plans to establish a new international task force to address the issue of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. Bringing our country closer to full membership in NATO is an unchanging priority. We are gradually fulfilling it.

Today, I also held a meeting with the Ministry of Strategic Industries. Oleksandr Kamyshin reported on the results in the production of drones and ammunition. We are ramping up production. It is very important that we are adding new positions and the adoption of new weapon models is underway. Domestic production of drones, shells, and military vehicles is literally the production of our freedom, the freedom of Ukrainians and Ukraine. Because in such conditions of a full-scale war, it is force that is the basis of freedom. And I am grateful to all the employees of our defense industry who ensure this – ensure Ukrainian strength – with their work for the sake of defense. I thank you all! And by the way, today the Minister reported separately on the production of long-range drones, which is one of the key tasks for the defense industry.

One more thing.

Our cities, our communities, which are being attacked by Russia. Kharkiv, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia regions. Nikopol, Marhanets. The situation in many border communities is extremely difficult. But we always keep in mind that in every community, in every city, there are rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine, police officers, our doctors, and volunteers. Everywhere there are people who save lives. And I thank each and every one of them who works in this way – for the sake of life.

Today I would like to especially recognize the employees of the State Emergency Service in Kherson region: Sergeants Ivan Bocharov and Mykola Liubchenko, Chief Master Sergeant Roman Popuriy. As well as police officers: Lieutenant Yehor Ivanov and Senior Lieutenant Oleksandr Butenko. The State Emergency Service in Kharkiv region: Sergeant Dmytro Holosniak, Chief Master Sergeant Oleksandr Antoniv and Colonel Oleksiy Serhiyenko. As well as police officers: Captain Anastasiia Zhyzhyna and Major Artem Romanko. In Donetsk region, I would like to recognize the crew of the Phoenix rescue team of the State Emergency Service: Civil Protection Service Majors Eduard Annenkov, Vitaliy Salamakha and Dmytro Durakov. And also the White Angels police crew: Senior Lieutenant Dmytro Soloviy and Hennadiy Yudin.

I thank all of you and your colleagues for your dedication and for saving lives.

Glory to everyone who fights for Ukraine and Ukrainians! Who works to help fight. Who works to save people and Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1752327274186063913

Russia has launched over 330 missiles of various types and approximately 600 combat drones at Ukrainian cities since the beginning of the year.

To withstand such terrorist pressure, a sufficiently strong air shield is required. And this is the type of air shield we are building with our partners.

We must ensure Ukraine’s control over its skies, which is also critical to ensuring security on the ground—from frontline positions to hospitals and schools in the rear.

Air defense and electronic warfare are our top priorities. Russian terror must be defeated—this is achievable.

@United24media

The cost:

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1752278769258078551

The Netherlands:

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1752277686859305166

€122 million—a new military aid package from the Netherlands.
Thank you, friends, for your unwavering support 🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱

The Netherlands is contributing €87 million to the purchase of artillery shells, €25 million to the purchase of equipment, and €10 million is an investment in improving Ukraine’s cyber defenses.

@Defensie

This is good news given the GOP House majority created mess in DC:

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1752396148541710661

From Politico:

The Pentagon has successfully tested a new long-range precision bomb for Ukraine that is expected to arrive on the battlefield as soon as Wednesday, according to two U.S. officials and two other people with knowledge of the talks.

Ukraine will receive its first batch of Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bombs, a brand new long-range weapon made by Boeing that even the U.S. doesn’t have in its inventory, according to the four people, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss matters ahead of an announcement.

The new bomb, which can travel about 90 miles, is expected to be “a significant capability for Ukraine,” said one of the U.S. officials.

“It gives them a deeper strike capability they haven’t had, it complements their long-range fire arsenal,” the U.S. official said. “It’s just an extra arrow in the quiver that’s gonna allow them to do more.”

An Army spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder declined to comment on timing “due to operational security.”

“I will refer to Ukraine to talk about any delivery,” he told reporters on Tuesday. “But we do, as I mentioned, continue to work closely with Ukraine and with our industry partners to ensure that Ukraine receives and is ready to use the capabilities that we’re delivering to them, and as quickly as possible.”

The weapon, co-developed by Boeing and Saab, is made up of a precision-guided 250-pound bomb strapped to a rocket motor and fired from various ground launchers. The U.S. military has a similar version of the bomb that is air-launched, but a ground-launched version does not yet exist in U.S. inventory.

The extended range will put a new capability in Kyiv’s arsenal at a time when fighting along the front is in a stalemate, and as Ukraine looks for new ways to hit Russian forces and infrastructure behind the front lines.

The bomb will join other long-range weapons given to Ukraine over the past year that have allowed its troops to hit Russian logistics and naval sites in Crimea. While the new bombs don’t have the range of the British Storm Shadow or the U.S.-made Army Tactical Missile System, it is arriving as Ukraine’s stockpiles of artillery and munitions are running low.

New funding for Ukraine is part of the $111 billion emergency supplemental that’s been stalled on Capitol Hill. Despite the fact that the U.S. has no new money to authorize weapons transfers from existing stocks, the U.S. signed a contract with Boeing last year to provide the weapon to Kyiv.

Ukraine will be the first country to use the bomb in combat, making it a critical test case for other countries that have been snapping up long-range munitions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

The Pentagon announced last February that the Biden administration was providing the new bomb to Ukraine. But before sending the new version, the U.S. military needed to test the weapon — and that took many months.

The Army oversaw the testing of the new precision-guided bomb before providing its stamp of approval to send the weapon to Ukraine, according to an industry source.

The air-launched version was created in 2019, but despite successful tests, Boeing and Saab did not make a sale until the U.S. decided to donate it to Ukraine as part of an aid package.

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1752405969496109063

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1752364906857345467

We now have more clarity in what is going on between President Zelenskyy and General Zaluzhnyi.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1752447795749892154

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1752445382875889782

From The Financial Times:

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is preparing to replace his top general in what would be the biggest shake-up of Ukraine’s military command since Russia’s full-scale invasion began two years ago.

Zelenskyy on Monday offered Valeriy Zaluzhny, commander-in-chief of the armed forces, a new role as a defence adviser but the general refused, according to four people familiar with the discussions.

Two of them said Zelenskyy had made clear to Zaluzhny that regardless of whether he took the role, he would be removed from his current position.

The four people said that while a decision had been made in Zelenskyy’s office to dismiss Zaluzhny, he may not be ousted for some time after reports of the plans appeared in Ukrainian media.

The president’s offer of a new role to the general follows months of speculation about his fate, fed by reports of tension between the two men.

Their strained relationship spilled into the open in November after Ukraine’s much-hyped counteroffensive failed to achieve its ambitious goals of retaking lost territory and cutting off Russia’s land bridge to Crimea.

At the time, Zaluzhny said the war had reached a “stalemate”, leading the president’s office to castigate him for using the term.

On Monday, Zelenskyy’s spokesperson, Serhiy Nykyforov, and the defence ministry denied reports about Zaluzhny’s dismissal.

“Dear journalists, we immediately answer everyone: No, this is not true,” the ministry wrote on its Telegram channel without providing additional context. The president’s office declined to comment further on Tuesday.

The removal of Zaluzhny would also cause an uproar within Ukraine’s rank-and-file military and civil society, among whom he enjoys huge support.

In a Ukrainian poll released in December, 88 per cent of Ukrainians said they trusted Zaluzhny compared with 62 per cent who said they trusted Zelenskyy.

“This will have a very, very negative impact on the [morale] of the army,” Ukrainian military historian Mykhailo Zhyrokhov told Kyiv’s Radio NV, who added he believed the rumours to be “fabrication”.

Replacing Zaluzhny could also unnerve Ukraine’s western partners, including military officials who have worked closely with the general over the past two years to devise battlefield strategies.

The war is at a critical juncture as Kyiv waits to see whether it will receive billions of dollars’ worth of military and financial assistance from the US and the EU.

Zaluzhny has not commented on the reports of his dismissal. On Monday, however, he published an undated selfie with his chief of the general staff Serhiy Shaptala on Facebook in which both were wearing Ukrainian army sweatshirts.

According to all four people with knowledge of the issue, it is unclear who would replace Zaluzhny as commander-in-chief.

Possible candidates are Oleksandr Syrsky, the commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, and Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the country’s military intelligence directorate. Both men are close to Zelenskyy.

More at the link!

Here’s some analysis from the president of the Kyiv School of Economics. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App:

https://twitter.com/Mylovanov/status/1752376641547039078

Everyone cited their anonymous sources in the government and military. Ukrainian media went on record saying the commander is fired.

Then an hour later the office of the president officially denied that Zaluzhny is fired. So media and opinion leaders apologized and reversed 2/ 

Anyway, FT writes that Zelenskyy is preparing to replace Zaluzhny nonetheless. He has served as commander-in-chief of the armed forces since 2021. This would be the biggest shake-up of Ukraine’s military leadership since the full-scale invasion began. 3/ 

FT says that Zelenskyy offered Zaluzhny a new role as a defense adviser, but Zaluzhny refused. Sources indicate Zelenskyy made clear Zaluzhny would be removed regardless. A decision was made to dismiss him, but it may be delayed due to the uproar the move has caused. 4/ 

For many months, there have been reports of mounting tensions between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhny, coming to a head after Ukraine’s stalled counteroffensive last November. Zelenskyy’s office rebuked the general for terming the war a “stalemate.” 5/ 

Zaluzhny enjoys widespread popularity and trust among both Ukraine’s military and general population. His dismissal could negatively impact army morale at a critical juncture of the war. It could also unsettle Ukraine’s Western partners. 6/ 

However, I have personally heard very mixed opinions about how widespread this support is 7/ 

FT writes that potential replacements include ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrsky and military intelligence head Kyrylo Budanov, both of whom are closer to Zelenskyy. Zaluzhny is credited with key Ukrainian successes against Russia. I have heard similar rumors too 8/ 

Source : 9X

https://www.ft.com/content/aa9aacfc-c248-4550-bf28-d79ad4c553cb

Now we wait and see what happens.

Director of Central Intelligence (DCI) William Burns has published an essay in Foreign Affairs. Here are some excerpts.

The simple stars etched on the memorial wall at the CIA’s headquarters in Langley, Virginia, honor the 140 agency officers who gave their lives serving their country. The memorial offers an enduring reminder of countless acts of courage. Yet those instances of heroism and the CIA’s many quiet successes remain far less well known to the American public than the mistakes that have sometimes marred the agency’s history. The defining test for intelligence has always been to anticipate and help policymakers navigate profound shifts in the international landscape—the plastic moments that come along only a few times each century.

As President Joe Biden has reiterated, the United States faces one of those rare moments today, as consequential as the dawn of the Cold War or the post-9/11 period. China’s rise and Russia’s revanchism pose daunting geopolitical challenges in a world of intense strategic competition in which the United States no longer enjoys uncontested primacy and in which existential climate threats are mounting. Complicating matters further is a revolution in technology even more sweeping than the Industrial Revolution or the beginning of the nuclear age. From microchips to artificial intelligence to quantum computing, emerging technologies are transforming the world, including the profession of intelligence. In many ways, these developments make the CIA’s job harder than ever, giving adversaries powerful new tools to confuse us, evade us, and spy on us.

And yet as much as the world is changing, espionage remains an interplay between humans and technology. There will continue to be secrets that only humans can collect and clandestine operations that only humans can conduct. Technological advances, particularly in signals intelligence, have not made such human operations irrelevant, as some have predicted, but have instead revolutionized their practice. To be an effective twenty-first-century intelligence service, the CIA must blend a mastery of emerging technologies with the people-to-people skills and individual daring that have always been at the heart of our profession. That means equipping operations officers with the tools and tradecraft to conduct espionage in a world of constant technological surveillance—and equipping analysts with sophisticated artificial intelligence models that can digest mammoth amounts of open-source and clandestinely acquired information so that they can make their best human judgments.

At the same time, what the CIA does with the intelligence it gathers is also changing. “Strategic declassification,” the intentional public disclosure of certain secrets to undercut rivals and rally allies, has become an even more powerful tool for policymakers. Using it doesn’t mean recklessly jeopardizing the sources or methods used to collect the intelligence, but it does mean judiciously resisting the reflexive urge to keep everything classified. The U.S. intelligence community is also learning the increasing value of intelligence diplomacy, gaining a new understanding of how its efforts to bolster allies and counter foes can support policymakers.

This is a time of historic challenges for the CIA and the entire intelligence profession, with geopolitical and technological shifts posing as big a test as we’ve ever faced. Success will depend on blending traditional human intelligence with emerging technologies in creative ways. It will require, in other words, adapting to a world where the only safe prediction about change is that it will accelerate.

The post–Cold War era came to a definitive end the moment Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. I have spent much of the past two decades trying to understand the combustible combination of grievance, ambition, and insecurity that Russian President Vladimir Putin embodies. One thing I have learned is that it is always a mistake to underestimate his fixation on controlling Ukraine and its choices. Without that control, he believes it is impossible for Russia to be a great power or for him to be a great Russian leader. That tragic and brutish fixation has already brought shame to Russia and exposed its weaknesses, from its one-dimensional economy to its inflated military prowess to its corrupt political system. Putin’s invasion has also prompted breathtaking determination and resolve from the Ukrainian people. I have seen their courage firsthand on frequent wartime trips to Ukraine, punctuated by Russian air raids and vivid images of Ukrainian battlefield tenacity and ingenuity.

Putin’s war has already been a failure for Russia on many levels. His original goal of seizing Kyiv and subjugating Ukraine proved foolish and illusory. His military has suffered immense damage. At least 315,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded, two-thirds of Russia’s prewar tank inventory has been destroyed, and Putin’s vaunted decades-long military modernization program has been hollowed out. All this is a direct result of Ukrainian soldiers’ valor and skill, backed up by Western support. Meanwhile, Russia’s economy is suffering long-term setbacks, and the country is sealing its fate as China’s economic vassal. Putin’s overblown ambitions have backfired in another way, too: they have prompted NATO to grow larger and stronger.

Although Putin’s repressive grip does not seem likely to weaken anytime soon, his war in Ukraine is quietly corroding his power at home. The short-lived mutiny launched last June by the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin offered a glimpse at some of the dysfunction lurking behind Putin’s carefully polished image of control. For a leader who painstakingly crafted a reputation as the arbiter of order, Putin looked detached and indecisive as Prigozhin’s ragtag mutineers made their way up the road to Moscow. For many in the Russian elite, the question was not so much whether the emperor had no clothes as why he was taking so long to get dressed. The ultimate apostle of payback, Putin eventually settled his score with Prigozhin, who was killed in a suspicious plane crash two months to the day after starting his rebellion. But Prigozhin’s biting critique of the lies and military misjudgments at the core of Putin’s war, and of the corruption at the heart of the Russian political system, will not soon disappear.

This year is likely to be a tough one on the battlefield in Ukraine, a test of staying power whose consequences will go well beyond the country’s heroic struggle to sustain its freedom and independence. As Putin regenerates Russia’s defense production—with critical components from China, as well as weaponry and munitions from Iran and North Korea—he continues to bet that time is on his side, that he can grind down Ukraine and wear down its Western supporters. Ukraine’s challenge is to puncture Putin’s arrogance and demonstrate the high cost for Russia of continued conflict, not just by making progress on the frontlines but also by launching deeper strikes behind them and making steady gains in the Black Sea. In this environment, Putin might engage again in nuclear saber-rattling, and it would be foolish to dismiss escalatory risks entirely. But it would be equally foolish to be unnecessarily intimidated by them.

The key to success lies in preserving Western aid for Ukraine. At less than five percent of the U.S. defense budget, it is a relatively modest investment with significant geopolitical returns for the United States and notable returns for American industry. Keeping the arms flowing will put Ukraine in a stronger position if an opportunity for serious negotiations emerges. It offers a chance to ensure a long-term win for Ukraine and a strategic loss for Russia; Ukraine could safeguard its sovereignty and rebuild, while Russia would be left to deal with the enduring costs of Putin’s folly. For the United States to walk away from the conflict at this crucial moment and cut off support to Ukraine would be an own goal of historic proportions.

No one is watching U.S. support for Ukraine more closely than Chinese leaders. China remains the only U.S. rival with both the intent to reshape the international order and the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to do so. The country’s economic transformation over the past five decades has been extraordinary. It is one for which the Chinese people deserve great credit and one that the rest of the world has broadly supported in the belief that a prosperous China is a global good. The issue is not China’s rise in itself but the threatening actions that increasingly accompany it. China’s leader, Xi Jinping, has begun his third presidential term with more power than any of his predecessors since Mao Zedong. Rather than use that power to reinforce and revitalize the international system that enabled China’s transformation, Xi is seeking to rewrite it. In the intelligence profession, we study carefully what leaders say. But we pay even more attention to what they do. Xi’s growing repression at home and his aggressiveness abroad, from his “no limits” partnership with Putin to his threats to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, are impossible to ignore.

So, too, however, is the impact of Western solidarity on Xi’s calculus about the risks of using force against Taiwan, which elected a new president, Lai Ching-te, in January. For Xi, a man inclined to see the United States as a fading power, American leadership on Ukraine has surely come as a surprise. The United States’ willingness to inflict and absorb economic pain to counter Putin’s aggression—and its ability to rally its allies to do the same—powerfully contradicted Beijing’s belief that America was in terminal decline. Closer to Chinese shores, the resilience of the American network of allies and partners across the Indo-Pacific has had a sobering effect on Beijing’s thinking. One of the surest ways to rekindle Chinese perceptions of American fecklessness and stoke Chinese aggressiveness would be to abandon support for Ukraine. Continued material backing for Ukraine doesn’t come at the expense of Taiwan; it sends an important message of U.S. resolve that helps Taiwan.

Competition with China is taking place against the backdrop of thick economic interdependence and commercial ties between it and the United States. Such connections have served the two countries and the rest of the world remarkably well, but they have also created critical vulnerabilities and serious risks for American security and prosperity. The COVID-19 pandemic made clear to every government the danger of being dependent on any one country for life-saving medical supplies, just as Russia’s war in Ukraine has made clear to Europe the risks of being dependent on one country for energy. In today’s world, no country wants to find itself at the mercy of a single supplier of critical minerals and technologies—especially if that supplier is intent on weaponizing those dependencies. As American policymakers have argued, the best answer is to sensibly “de-risk” and diversify—securing the United States’ supply chains, protecting its technological edge, and investing in its industrial capacity.

In this volatile, divided world, the weight of the “hedging middle” is growing. Democracies and autocracies, developed economies and developing ones, and countries across the global South are increasingly intent on diversifying their relationships to maximize their options. They see little benefit and plenty of risk in sticking to monogamous geopolitical relationships with either the United States or China. More countries are likely to be attracted to an “open” geopolitical relationship status (or at least an “it’s complicated” one), following the United States’ lead on some issues while cultivating relations with China. And if past is precedent, Washington ought to be attentive to rivalries between the growing number of middle powers, which have historically helped spark collisions between major ones.

Much more at the link!

Avdiivka:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752438136162926715

South of Vuhledar:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752385485899497851

Orcs looting a church in Mykilske, at the zero line, just south of Vuhledar. They can be seen entering the altar area, while the officer ordered looting of all icons. The individual filming fully understands the consequences of his actions but proceeds to steal the klobuk.

It is hard to date this footage, however, given the mention of kamikaze drones which started being used far more often in the past year, it is reasonable to assume that the video is fairly recent.

One can only imagine how many more churches the russian army looted all across Ukraine.

Russian occupied portions of Ukraine and Russia itself:

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1752242470732136844

Orcs looting a church in Mykilske, at the zero line, just south of Vuhledar. They can be seen entering the altar area, while the officer ordered looting of all icons. The individual filming fully understands the consequences of his actions but proceeds to steal the klobuk.

It is hard to date this footage, however, given the mention of kamikaze drones which started being used far more often in the past year, it is reasonable to assume that the video is fairly recent.

One can only imagine how many more churches the russian army looted all across Ukraine.

Russia:

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1752458547420389576

https://twitter.com/maria_avdv/status/1752386847098147289

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1752381363129360738

Many channels report of a massive failure of the Russian internet. Especially people in major cities such as Moscow trying to connect to .ru domains report that no sides are loading. Almost all mobile providers and operators are affected.

Source: https://t.me/breakingmash/51303…

#Russia

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1752466875085132220

As if it the loss of large parts of the Russian internet was not enough, the Ukrainian Intelligence “GUR” reports that it once again disabled another Russian cyber target. This time the servers of the Russian Ministry of Defense have been hit.

The leaked docs show the documentation process and methodology, but it is likely that more sensitive information got retrieved as well. The worst part, however, is that the Russian counter intelligence must assume the worst and turn their systems completely upside down. That’s a ton of work.

According to the docs, the software which was breached was approved by the FSB.

Source: https://t.me/DIUkraine/3389

#Ukraine #Russia #CyberWar

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new video from Patron’s cartoon show’s official TikTok!

@patronthedog

Вже бачили вчорашню серію?😻 Хто ще не встиг подивитись – лінк у шапці профілю😌 #песпатронмультфільм

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron the Dog

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

Have you seen yesterday’s episode yet? 😻 For those who haven’t had a chance to watch it yet, the link is in the profile header 😌 #песпатронмультфільм

And here it is!

Open thread!