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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Republicans in disarray!

That’s my take and I am available for criticism at this time.

Second rate reporter says what?

President Musk and Trump are both poorly raised, coddled 8 year old boys.

I’d like to think you all would remain faithful to me if i ever tried to have some of you killed.

Red lights blinking on democracy’s dashboard

“Everybody’s entitled to be an idiot.”

“Loving your country does not mean lying about its history.”

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

Quote tweet friends, screenshot enemies.

Consistently wrong since 2002

Motto for the House: Flip 5 and lose none.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

People are weird.

Hey Washington Post, “Democracy Dies in Darkness” was supposed to be a warning, not a mission statement.

Republicans: “Abortion is murder but you can take a bus to get one.” Easy peasy.

Shut up, hissy kitty!

Let’s bury these fuckers at the polls 2 years from now.

Every decision we make has lots of baggage with it, known or unknown.

Live so that if you miss a day of work people aren’t hoping you’re dead.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

Of course you can have champagne before noon. That’s why orange juice was invented.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

This and That on a Sunday Morning

by WaterGirl|  February 4, 202410:41 am| 233 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

I don’t know who this is, but he is an excellent surrogate for President   Trump   BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN BIDEN.

Tyler: The only things that went up under Trump’s presidency for black folks was the unemployment rate and the uninsured rate. He fumbled the bag on the covid response, leaving black people disproportionately dead, leaving black businesses disproportionately shuttered. pic.twitter.com/F9xyIStmvK

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 4, 2024

I imagine this is old news by now?

Judge Chutkan bows to reality, takes 1/6 trial off calendar and writes will set a new schedule “if and when” the mandate is returned. You can almost hear her frustration. Looking forward to discussing, along w/ Fulton County and other Trump news, on @allinwithchris at 8:25 PM ET.

— Harry Litman (@harrylitman) February 3, 2024

Once again, we have the foxes guarding the henhouse. Sigh.
I really appreciate Sheldon Whitehouse.

SCOTUS is taking up a case whose core question is how close the “quid” must be to the “quo” to establish “quid pro quo” corruption. Recent revelations about the Court raise questions re: whether it is fit to make such decisions.

Read my latest in @Law360:https://t.co/onY9oAp3cU

— Sheldon Whitehouse (@SenWhitehouse) February 2, 2024

This 2-minute video of Sheldon Whitehouse is devastating to Clarence Thomas. Whitehouse has to be one of the hardest working and hardest hitting senators we have.

For every ethics issue at the Court, there is also likely a tax issue. I’m glad @RonWyden is on the case with me. pic.twitter.com/qhaWxEvBTK

— Sheldon Whitehouse (@SenWhitehouse) February 2, 2024

Bernie Sanders telling the truth.

If a CEO offers a member of Congress $5 to vote for a bill, it’s considered a bribe and a crime.

If a CEO starts a Super-PAC and raises tens of millions for that member, it is perfectly legal.

Why is this allowed? Two words: Citizens United.

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) February 2, 2024

We talked about this last week, but when we did I had forgotten this very important point. I talked about Judge Henderson (conservative judge appointed by a Republican) having the most seniority, and therefore she has first dibs on writing the opinion, and I suggested that she might be slow-walking the opinion. What I had forgotten was that Henderson had voted AGAINST expediting this case. The other two voted FOR expediting the case, so they took up the case very quickly. But there are no rules about how quickly/slowly rulings have to be issued. Hoping Judge Henderson is not one more person who is willing to trash her reputation for Trump.

My one minor quibble: DC Circuit=Judge Henderson, as I strongly suspect she is the delay, as she was not in favor of expediting this case and has the prerogative as the senior judge on the 3-judge panel to assign herself writing the court opinion – and to sit on it. https://t.co/Cv2mNjuUoh

— Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads)🌻 (@AWeissmann_) February 2, 2024

It seems like we might be playing the child’s tile game – with 15 numbered moveable tiles which can be moved around in a plastic frame with room for 16 tiles. Only this time, it’s not tiles we are moving around in order to get the desired result – it’s Trump cases. With the DC case officially off the docket for now (see above) it’s possible that the Alvin Bragg NY trial could move into the March slot.

Not so sure this is a done deal: it is a timing question that depends on length of the Manhattan Trump criminal case and when the mandate is given to Chutkan so she can get her DC criminal trial scheduled. https://t.co/PeWN8MmCEv

— Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads)🌻 (@AWeissmann_) February 2, 2024

Not sure how closely everyone is following this with Fani Willis.  Some may care about her choice to have an affair with a co-worker, but legally it looks like she is in pretty good shape.  We shall see.

The new Fani Willis brief, supporting affidavit and exhibits are so powerful you wish the substance was public right after the allegations, so as to nip them in the bud. And unless something changes, this makes the Feb. 15 hearing much ado about nothing, by a desperate defendant.

— Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads)🌻 (@AWeissmann_) February 2, 2024

The new Fani Willis brief, supporting affidavit and exhibits are so powerful you wish the substance was public right after the allegations, so as to nip them in the bud. And unless something changes, this makes the Feb. 15 hearing much ado about nothing, by a desperate defendant.

— Andrew Weissmann (weissmann11 on Threads)🌻 (@AWeissmann_) February 2, 2024

I guess Biden did well in South Carolina.  No one could have predicted!   As far as I’m concerned, Haley should say in the race and keep bashing Trump in ways that would be hailed as unsportsmanlike if our side said it.

Open thread.

This and That on a Sunday MorningPost + Comments (233)

Win, Place, Show (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  February 4, 20247:43 am| 215 Comments

This post is in: 2024 Primaries, Domestic Politics, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

In the first two GOP early state primary/caucus contests, Trump notched wins with 51% and 54% of the vote, which analysts called dominating performances. And they were big wins in the sense that losers DeSantis and Haley got clobbered.

But this is what it looks like when a party leader has a unified base behind him:

Win, Place Show (Open Thread)

According to the most recent poll I can find for South Carolina, Trump is beating Haley 58% to 32% in her home state. That’s embarrassing for her, but alarm bells should be ringing at Trump HQ since Orangemandias still ain’t cracking 60% so far.

We’ve known for almost a year now that, barring a black swan event, Trump is going to be the GOP nominee. A plurality of Republican base voters are hard-core cultists, and a not-insignificant number who don’t directly worship the buffoon nonetheless experience vicarious transgressive thrills from Trump’s antics. I think of the latter as the “just want to watch the world burn” faction.

But while it remains frightening and repulsive that tens of millions of our fellow citizens are such feckless fuck-squibs, this is not a strong start for Team Trump. Maybe the candidate himself dimly senses that, which might explain why last night he begged cultists on his tumbleweed-choked, knock-off social media platform to participate in his pathetic delusion that he looks like…Elvis Presley. Who died in 1977.

Win, Place Show (Open Thread) 1

And speaking of pathetic, in South Carolina, Rep. Dean Phillips finished third behind the Crystal Blue Persuasion lady with a whopping 1.7% share of primary votes. Sadly, it appears no one loves him enough to tell him he’s humiliating himself and should slink back to the Land of 10,000 Lakes.

Open thread.

Win, Place, Show (Open Thread)Post + Comments (215)

Saturday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  February 3, 202410:17 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "Stories from the Road", John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House", Open Threads

This post is a shout to everyone who read my post earlier in the day and mentally thought to themselves “there’s no fucking way they are getting all that done” because you are tonight’s big winner. And a hearty fuck you to all of you, btw.

At any rate, to elaborate on what is going on, Joelle’s living room has the front door (that we do not use) and is connected to the galley kitchen with a door to the carport (that we do use) and on the other side connects to the hallway to the two bedrooms at the end, the bathroom in the middle, and a sun room that we call the dog room that connects to the patio and the backyard. We had a bunch of indoor outdoor 50’s tiki furniture that was gifted to her in that room that I picked up in Flagstaff a couple weeks ago.

So what we did is we threw out her aged couch and end table that she wanted to get rid of (that she put on FB marketplace and was GONE in an hour) deep-cleaned the living room, chose our paint colors from the samples we put up, and cleaned the tiki furniture and moved it into the living room temporarily. Tomorrow we are deep cleaning the sun room/dog room, and then while she is at work next week I am going to pain the sun room and the hallway. Once those are done, we will move the tiki stuff back into the sun room/dog room, and then we will paint the living room. Exhausted? Me too.

I was a spaz all day long and could not figure out what Joelle wanted me to do and she is quite frustrated with me right now, but what can I say, it’s a fucking package deal. I was unwittingly working against her because I thought we were painting the living room first- the list never got made, btw.

Another thing I keep forgetting is that I am an ogre. I would have no problem living for a week with the living room completely torn up and there being no other “space” to live. I mean I can get to the kitchen, the shower and shitter, the office, and the bed. What else do I need? Not all people ‘live’ like that or can just completely blot things out.

The other thing is that she is also very sentimental so this is all a big deal for her. I’m not so much. I look at something and scan for threats and utility, and in that order. Aesthetics follow, to varying degrees. She doesn’t think that way. She just has a different worldview that I will never fully understand but can respect and need to learn to get better at being sensitive to or in a couple years you might hear Josh Mankiwiecz on Dateline talking about a woman who slowly poisoned her husband to death by putting thallium in his topo chico. At any rate, the temporary living room with sunroom furniture while we do the other room and hallway. From the front door angling across the room to the galley kitchen:

Saturday Night Open Thread 3

A side view from one of the tiki seats against the wall.

Saturday Night Open Thread 4

And from the galley kitchen door:

Saturday Night Open Thread 5

If you look at the first picture, yoiu will see a picture of Marilyn Monroe, except it is not! It’s Joelle back in her youth when she worked in Wheeling and someone asked her to be a hair model. I think she looks like Ana de Armas in the picture:

Saturday Night Open Thread 6

At any rate, that was today. Currently I am researching textured walls to figure out what the fuck they are made of and what I can do to hang a picture or shit in them without destroying them.

Saturday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (61)

War for Ukraine Day 710: The House Majority GOP Caucus Announce’s the Abandonment of Ukraine To the World

by Adam L Silverman|  February 3, 20248:49 pm| 61 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

And there it is:

I should have added a word at the end: "AGAIN"

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 3, 2024

NBC has the details: (emphasis mine)

WASHINGTON — Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., told Republicans on Saturday that the House will vote next week on a stand-alone bill to provide aid to Israel, with no offsetting spending cuts.

Johnson made the announcement in an afternoon letter to colleagues while criticizing the impending Senate legislation that would pair Israel aid with funding for Ukraine and a package of tougher border security and asylum laws.

“While the Senate appears poised to finally release text of their supplemental package after months of behind closed doors negotiations, their leadership is aware that by failing to include the House in their negotiations, they have eliminated the ability for swift consideration of any legislation,” Johnson wrote, adding that the House “will have to work its will on these issues and our priorities will need to be addressed.”

Johnson blasted the Senate for what he called its “failure to move appropriate legislation in a timely fashion,” arguing the House needs to act in the absence of leadership from the upper chamber amid “the perilous circumstances currently facing Israel.”

“Next week, we will take up and pass a clean, standalone Israel supplemental package,” he wrote. “During debate in the House and in numerous subsequent statements, Democrats made clear that their primary objection to the original House bill was with its offsets. The Senate will no longer have excuses, however misguided, against swift passage of this critical support for our ally.”

The bill is set to include $17.6 billion in military aid to Israel “as well as important funding for U.S. Forces in the region,” Johnson’s office said. A prior bill passed by the House, early in Johnson’s speakership, would have provided $14.3 billion in aid to Israel, attached to IRS cuts that Democrats said were a poison pill.

The legislation, called the Israel Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, is set to be introduced by Rep. Ken Calvert, R-Calif., the speaker’s office said.

The unexpected move indicates that Johnson is digging his heels in against an immigration compromise and Ukraine funding, while suggesting that Israel aid is the only part of President Joe Biden’s national security supplemental request that House Republicans are prepared to pass.

It’s unclear whether the Senate will take up a stand-alone Israel aid bill. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., has said he wants to start voting next week on the broader supplemental and immigration bill, with text expected to be released on Sunday.

The White House has previously signaled opposition to a stand-alone Israel aid bill, with the National Security Council’s coordinator for strategic communications, John Kirby, saying in November, “The president would veto an only-Israel bill. We — I think that we’ve made that clear.”

Johnson also, apparently, reiterated this week, in public, and caught on video that the Deity told him he was Moses.

https://twitter.com/highbrow_nobrow/status/1753172582860275911

People that believe that the Deity has given them specific orders and that in carrying out those orders will ensure they are right with the Deity CANNOT be negotiated with. They can also not be deterred or persuaded using any conventional means. This is why Israel is not getting their hostages back, why the Gazans are going to be the real long term victims of that war, and why playing whack a mole with the Houthis won’t work. Also, why there will be no negotiating with Speaker Johnson or his caucus.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Crucial to maintain consolidation of the free world and do everything to enable Ukraine to inflict defeats on Russia – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

3 February 2024 – 18:17

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

Today is another day of our gratitude, our respect for all those who help the state withstand, fight for Ukraine, and emerge victorious.

Today, I awarded the Defence Intelligence warriors with state honors. These are the guys who ensured another success for Ukraine – the sinking of a Russian military ship in Lake Donuzlav in our Crimea. A spectacular action. But not just spectacular, it’s extremely effective: the fewer Russian fleets in the Black Sea, the more security we have in the region and globally.

Today, I continued our new tradition of honoring all the Heroes of Ukraine. I presented certificates for apartments to soldiers awarded with the Order of the Golden Star and their families. Another 30 families. Soldiers who fought against the occupiers both after 2014 and in this war. Each story of every Hero deserves Ukrainians to always remember and honor the bravery of our soldiers.

I want to express separate gratitude to all Ukraine’s partners who have supported and continue to support our state. Work is ongoing with the teams of European states to strengthen Ukraine, develop new defense packages, and implement new security solutions. This week, we have new decisions on supporting our country from Germany and the Netherlands. Luxembourg has joined our aviation coalition. Lithuania has a new package. We discussed further defense cooperation with the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Canada. Critical defense contracts are being fulfilled. There is reinforcement of air defense. Remember: the war started by Russia is on the Ukrainian front, but its target is not only our state, not only our independence. Therefore, it is crucial to maintain as much as possible consolidation of the free world and do everything possible and impossible for Ukraine to inflict defeats on Russia. Moscow understands no other language. We continue to work with partners regarding new sanctions against Russia and blocking Russian schemes to bypass sanctions. We are actively pursuing the confiscation of Russian assets scattered across various jurisdictions. I am grateful to everyone who assists us in the efforts to confiscate Russian assets.

And one more thing.

At the moment, recovery works are underway in some regions of our state where Russian strikes caused power outages. Dnipropetrovsk region, particularly Kryvy Rih – energy workers are striving to restore electricity to all consumers as quickly as possible. We’ve dispatched the head of Ukrenergo to the region, along with all necessary experts and resources. Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal briefed me today on the progress of the works and the protection of energy facilities. I thank every repair brigade and all the involved workers.

Being self-sacrificing at one’s level, being efficient, and being bold, means for Ukraine to be a strong state capable of defending itself. I thank everyone who realizes this.

Glory to every Ukrainian warrior! Glory to all those who work to ensure Ukraine can defend itself!

Glory to Ukraine!

🫡 Президент України Володимир Зеленський вручив високі державні нагороди військовослужбовцям @DI_Ukraine, які виявили особливу мужність під час виконання спеціальних бойових завдань, зокрема знищення російського ракетного катера «Івановець».

🔗 https://t.co/YzFsrvyCmZ pic.twitter.com/Oy7b889gPc

— Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (@DI_Ukraine) February 3, 2024

🫡 President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy presented high state awards to military personnel
@DI_Ukraine
who showed exceptional courage during special combat missions, including the destruction of the Russian missile boat “Ivanovets”.

🔗 https://gur.gov.ua/content/rosiia-vidchuvaie-bil-vid-vashykh-dii-prezydent-vidznachyv-nahorodamy-viiskovosluzhbovtsiv-hur.html

From the Main Directorate of Intelligence’s official site: (machine translation)

Addressing those present at the meeting at the Mariinsky Palace, the Head of State said that he was glad to have the opportunity to personally thank them, as well as all the soldiers of the GUR.

« Much has been done by you, much has been done by GUR soldiers both on earth and at sea. Russia is really in pain from your actions, from the actions of your brothers, and it is important that the Russian perpetrators of this war lose daily from it », – stressed Vladimir Zelensky.

The head of state especially noted the success of GUR soldiers at sea, namely – the defeat of a Russian rocket ship «Ivanovets».

«A complex operation on the raid of Lake Donuzlav – six direct hits of sea drones in the building « Ivanovtsia». It was really strong. And thank you for this power », – added by the President.

Vladimir Zelensky expressed his conviction that the whole of Ukraine is proud of the GUR servicemen who perform tasks of such complexity.

« The honor you have in us. Our task – to protect, to support you. I want to thank you for saving everyone’s lives by risking your », – said the President.

The audience also honored a moment of silence with the memory of all the heroes of the war who gave their lives for Ukraine.

The head of state presented the military GUR of the Ministry of Defense the Order of Bogdan Khmelnytsky II and III degrees, orders «For courage» III degree.

Speaking of LTG Budanov’s Soldiers, they have had another successful hunt!

#ГУРінформує
 
‼️ На росії розстріляли пілота Ту-95
 
👤 @DI_Ukraine інформує: у російському місті енґельс розстріляли командира екіпажу стратегічного бомбардувальника Ту-95 ― майора  стєґачьова олєґа сєрґєєвіча.

🔗 https://t.co/7Mzqv1BQmx pic.twitter.com/S76zjDSgzL

— Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (@DI_Ukraine) February 3, 2024

‼️ Tu-95 pilot shot in Russia

👤 @DI_Ukraine
informs: in the Russian city of Engels, the commander of the Tu-95 strategic bomber crew, Major Oleg Sergeevich Stegachev, was shot.

 

From the official site of the Main Directorate of Intelligence/the HUR: (machine translated)

The Chief Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine informs that Major Oleh Stegachov, a crew commander of a Tu-95 strategic bomber, was shot dead in the Russian city of Engels.

The said pilot of the Russian Air Force was born on 23.06.1983, served at the Engels air base (military unit 06987) – he was directly involved in launching missile strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine and killing our people.

As a result of the attack, Oleg Stegachev sustained gunshot wounds. We are checking to see whether he survived or not.

We would like to remind you that all war criminals will face retribution – we know your names, addresses, license plates, usual routes and habits.

Justice is inevitable!

Glory to Ukraine!

The wrath of God, ladies and gentlemen.
The wrath of God.https://t.co/ed0p0JxrMa pic.twitter.com/NUWXnXBWVD

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) February 3, 2024

 

Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia front:

Zaporizhzhia direction, Robotyno

— Мисливець за зорями (@small10space) February 3, 2024

Avdiivka front:

Avdiivka, Tsarska Okohta (southern flank) – Russian claims of control of the district are overblown as proved by FPV crews operating in the area (with commentary).https://t.co/zooWXTnA5F pic.twitter.com/NgtslNH5rC

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) February 3, 2024

Another Russian T-90M loss. Avdiivka front. https://t.co/BDDUBWYQaHhttps://t.co/SuEyKmRy1h pic.twitter.com/mxmIvDSvR6

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 3, 2024

Moscow:

https://twitter.com/Teoyaomiquu/status/1753881121517957374

LTG Budanov, your mission should you choose to accept it…

Volgograd, Russia:

Results of the UAV strike against the Volgograd oil refinery. The fire most likely dealt some serious damage to the facility. pic.twitter.com/gEQAmTl27p

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) February 3, 2024

The Russian authorities that the fire has been extinguished.

Source: https://t.co/AEuFZ0vIMm pic.twitter.com/A192UfJLyd

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) February 3, 2024

https://twitter.com/AllthingsLNG/status/1753835734648439240

Tweet 1:

Major Update on this post – After getting the new photos, it is not a fractionation column and it is not a crude distillation column, but it is a flare stack.

Flare stacks usually have sparing involved. This means if one stops working then the other ones take the load. And there are several flares available throughout the refining unit.

Which means the previous assessment was wrong.

The columns were spared and instead a flare stack was hit.

The refinery may be back to running again in a few weeks if the remaining flare stacks can take the load provided no other major process equipment is damaged.

https://x.com/BruckenRuski/status/1753820715281682879?s=20

Tweet 2:

Here is something to keep in mind. This is a developing situation and multiple photos are becoming available which are replacing the previous predictions.

There is no corroboration of what has been damaged other than taking these photos at their face value.

Use caution when you see this analysis. Do not take this as the final answer, just treat it as an initial assessment that can be superseded when newer and more accurate information becomes available.

For Omnes and the other Red Legs:

Great video with a detailed breakdown of Russian artillery remaining. https://t.co/MB6sW57be6

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) February 3, 2024

 

For you drone enthusiasts:

FPV drone helped Ukrainians escape a building occupied by Russians. Commentary from DeepState:

Fighters of the 14th regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shared footage of the rescue of their comrades who were in a building, the first floor of which was occupied by russians,… pic.twitter.com/NEsbi0gtOO

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) February 3, 2024

FPV drone helped Ukrainians escape a building occupied by Russians. Commentary from DeepState:

Fighters of the 14th regiment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine shared footage of the rescue of their comrades who were in a building, the first floor of which was occupied by russians, south of Krasnohorivka

A group of paratroopers took up positions on the second floor of the building, while the first floor was occupied by Katsaps. The pilot of the FPV drone of the 3rd battalion “Nakhtigal” of the 14th regiment came to the aid of the Ukrainians and carried out a strike on the first floor, where the enemy was. Thanks to this, the fighters of the Defense Forces were able to take advantage of the moment, descend from the second floor and successfully withdraw.

For those of you interested in how the sanctions are working – cough they’re not cough – The Financial Times takes a deep dive into the state of the Russian economy.

Putin is spending so much on his invasion that Russia is back to growth. But cracks in Russia’s economy have begun to appear.

“It’s like when you put dough in a plastic container. It rises until it runs into the lid, and then there’s nowhere to go.” https://t.co/nPT37ySvXa

— max seddon (@maxseddon) February 3, 2024

Here are some excerpts: (emphasis mine)

Addressing a crowd of activists on Friday in Tula, the capital of Russia’s arms industry, Vladimir Putin crowed that the country’s economy had defeated western sanctions imposed after his invasion of Ukraine.

“They predicted decline, failure, collapse — that we would stand back, give up, or fall apart. It makes you want to show [them] a well-known gesture, but I won’t do that, there are a lot of ladies here,” Putin said to a round of applause. “They won’t succeed! Our economy is growing, unlike theirs.”

Russia’s president gloated that Russia’s economy had not only withstood an onslaught of sanctions from western countries — but was now bigger than all but two of them. He was referring to the World Bank’s ranking of GDP by purchasing power parity, by which Russia slightly edges ahead of Germany. “All of our industry did their part,” he said.

On Tuesday, the IMF appeared to concur with Russia’s president. The IMF revised its own GDP growth forecast for Russia to 2.6 per cent this year, a 1.5 percentage point rise over what it had predicted last October.

The Russian economy’s resilience has stunned many economists who had believed the initial round of sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago could cause a catastrophic contraction.

Instead, they say, the Kremlin has spent its way out of a recession by evading western attempts to limit its revenues from energy sales and by ramping up defence spending.

Russia is directing a third of the country’s budget — Rbs9.6tn in 2023 and Rbs14.3tn in 2024 — towards the war effort, a threefold increase from 2021, the last full year before the invasion. This includes not only producing hardware, but also giving war-related social payments to those who fight in Ukraine and their families, as well as some spending on the occupied territories.

The significant increase in military expenditure marks “a striking break with Russia’s post-Communist development to date”, a recent Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) paper concluded.

Putin’s own top economic officials have warned a surge in public spending comes at the risk of a major overheating of the economy in the near future. But for the time being, it is keeping growth robust.

All of this would have been impossible if Russia had not continued to generate colossal revenues from its energy resources, despite sanctions.

In 2023, Russia’s energy revenues reached Rbs8.8tn — a decline of about a quarter from the record-breaking result in 2022 but above the average for the past ten years. Despite this, the state has had to resort to increasingly irregular methods to generate revenue from one-off taxes and levies, including “voluntary donations” western businesses have to pay when leaving Russia.

“The regime is resilient because it sits on an oil rig,” says Elina Ribakova, a non-resident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The Russian economy now is like a gas station that has started producing tanks.”

As he announced Russia’s staggering military spending to lawmakers in September, finance minister Anton Siluanov used a Soviet slogan from the second world war to describe the Kremlin’s approach to the budget.

“Everything for the front, everything for victory,” Siluanov said.

The Kremlin’s shift to what Vasily Astrov, a senior economist at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW), calls “military Keynesianism” is a radical break from the conservative macroeconomic policy of Putin’s first two decades in power.

Technocrats like Siluanov and central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina helped steer Russia through multiple financial crises by aggressively targeting inflation, shoring up the country’s banking system, building up foreign currency reserves, and attempting to rein in additional spending.

That approach also proved crucial in mitigating the initial impact of the sanctions at the war’s outset, when western countries froze $300bn of Russia’s sovereign reserves and the Kremlin imposed currency controls to halt an exodus of capital and a run on the banks.

“The economic bloc [the finance ministry and central bank] keeps saving the regime. They have proven to be much more useful for Putin than the generals,” says Alexandra Prokopenko, a former Russian central bank official.

Avoiding a bigger contraction in the economy allowed the Kremlin to pivot to fuelling growth through spending, Astrov says. Although the authorities officially continue to refer to the war in Ukraine as a “special military operation”, the entire country’s economy has shifted to producing for the war.

Addressing a group of arms producers on Friday, Putin said they were “guaranteed to be filling orders for years to come” as Russia ramped up its weapons production and said the defence ministry was paying suppliers 80 per cent of the costs in advance.

More at the link!

Who could have possibly predicted this? Eez a puzzlement! We may never know the answer…

More seriously, remember last week or the week before when I included the machine translation of the German defense industrial sector leaders interviews with Bild? Where they all unanimously said they had been ordered not to ramp up production by the Scholz government and that the same government was not placing orders? This is why Putin is not losing.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

A new behind the scenes video from Patron’s official Patron the Dog cartoon TikTok:

@patronthedog

Ось так створювалися саундтреки до нової серії «Пес Патрон»😍 p.s. Хто ще не бечив серію – вона вже на каналі👀 #песпатронмультфільм

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron the Dog

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

This is how the soundtracks for the new series “Dog Patron” were created 😍 p.s. Who hasn’t seen the episode yet – it’s already on the channel 👀 #песпатронмультфільм

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 710: The House Majority GOP Caucus Announce’s the Abandonment of Ukraine To the WorldPost + Comments (61)

Local Races Open Thread: Does Colin Allred Stand A Chance Against Ted Cruz?

by Anne Laurie|  February 3, 20245:47 pm| 208 Comments

This post is in: Local Races, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Allred: Ted Cruz is media personality. He’s not serious about being a senator. We're talking about negotiations in the senate right now. You’ll never see him a part of those negotiations. He won’t be rolling up his sleeves and figuring out a compromise.. pic.twitter.com/8Wmz2iiDW1

— Acyn (@Acyn) February 2, 2024

I know Texas is heavily gerrymandered / wired for Republicans, but Allred seems like a good legislator, which Cruz is… not. Apart from being a notorious sports jinx, looks like Cruz has decided to respond to criticism of his ‘Flight to Cancun’ epic in the most Cruz manner possible:

Or you could just connect Texas to the grid, Ted. https://t.co/oTzPqWtwj6

— zeddy (@Zeddary) February 3, 2024

Scoop: Ted Cruz wants lawmakers to get security escorts through America’s airports https://t.co/ZosShRv49a

— Oriana Pawlyk (@Oriana0214) February 3, 2024


Per Politico:

… The Texas Republican — infamously photographed by a gawker while en route to Cancún in 2021 — is proposing a bill amendment that would offer lawmakers a dedicated security escort at airports, along with expedited screening outside of public view. That could make it much less likely that the politicians’ comings and goings would become fodder for embarrassing news reports and late-night comedy mockery.

The measure would also provide the same special treatment to federal judges and Cabinet members, as well as a limited number of their family and staff. Cruz is trying to attach the amendment to a major aviation policy bill, S. 1939, that is expected to be marked up in the Senate Commerce Committee on Thursday.

Asked about the need for his amendment, Cruz told POLITICO that it’s about ensuring that political VIPs aren’t endangered as they pass through public spaces in airports. The draft says the extra security would be available to those who are currently or have previously “been the subject of a threat.”…

Political leaders’ air travels could become harder to decipher under Cruz’s draft language, which was obtained by POLITICO. The amendment would mandate that the TSA help “arrange” a security escort — which the provision says could be local law enforcement — for “the entirety of the time” the VIPs are at an airport. In addition, it would grant lawmakers under protective escort the ability to be screened without delay…

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I guess if a GOP legislator is not important enough to qualify for a private jet, like Sinema or Justice Thomas…

So: What do you think about Colin Allred, Texas jackals?

From the freedom to make your own health care decisions to the freedom to retire with dignity, we deserve a Senator who stands up for our values.

Ted Cruz puts our freedoms at risk, and in November we’re going to replace him. pic.twitter.com/vYs6vdEmf2

— Colin Allred (@ColinAllredTX) February 2, 2024

I was raised by a single mom. I know what it is like when you swipe the debit card at the store and pray it goes through.

Ted Cruz doesn’t care about families like mine growing up. He only cares about himself. It’s time we get a new Senator.

Join us ➡️ https://t.co/2dROrrPU0n pic.twitter.com/BwlBoUTA2G

— Colin Allred (@ColinAllredTX) February 2, 2024

??BREAKING: We outraised Ted Cruz last quarter!

The momentum behind our historic, record-breaking campaign is proof that Texans are ready for fresh ideas and new leadership. Together, we are going to elect a Senator who fights for our freedoms and brings us together. pic.twitter.com/gl9KQaW44v

— Colin Allred (@ColinAllredTX) February 1, 2024

From the freedom to make your own health care decisions to the freedom to retire with dignity, we deserve a Senator who stands up for our values.

Ted Cruz puts our freedoms at risk, and in November we’re going to replace him. pic.twitter.com/vYs6vdEmf2

— Colin Allred (@ColinAllredTX) February 2, 2024

Ted Cruz went on TV last night to remind everybody that he's unpopular and very vulnerable. Let's #LoseCruz y'all! pic.twitter.com/ZMq87HMKK6

— Lose Cruz (@LoseCruzPAC) February 2, 2024

ETA: Readership capture!

Anything is paw-ssible when we work together to deliver for Texas. pic.twitter.com/GuaBgwz9HI

— Colin Allred (@ColinAllredTX) February 3, 2024

Local Races Open Thread: Does Colin Allred Stand A Chance Against Ted Cruz?Post + Comments (208)

Climate Solutions: Positive Stories On Solutions and Innovation

by TaMara|  February 3, 202412:33 pm| 69 Comments

This post is in: Climate Change Solutions, Make The World A Better Place, Open Threads, Positive Climate News

I’m still not sure how I will disseminate the information I have compiled, but I’m going to just jump in. At the moment I’m fascinated with soil regeneration as a way to capture carbon and solve problems like raging wildfires, till farming/factory farming climate damage and that pesky “cows are the problem” myth (spoiler alert, it’s not the cows it’s the factory farming). There will definitely be Wooly Mammoth information and beaver rewilding to restore areas.

I’m going to embed some brief videos interspersed in this post so you can see where I’m headed.

Carbon Cowboys – Roots So Deep is the same team that produced Cabon Nation they bring all the feelz with this series of videos.

show full post on front page

I also have sources on the latest in battery technology, issues and solutions to battery recycling, new wind turbine news, and of course everyone’s favorite, the major leaps in EV range and charging infrastructure.

I’m adding this one because we were talking about solid state batteries in the last Climate post.

I will mostly be posting videos – because they are short and easy to digest. Plus if you head over to the Youtube link, there are always resources in the description, so you can delve deeper. I’ll post article links when I find them exciting and accessible. I will also post links to resources for climate solutions.

I’m not going to pretend any of these posts are going to be a deep dive into technical explanations, that’s not what I’m trying to do.

Climate Solutions: Positive Stories On Solutions and Innovation

This is the trailer for a PBS series available on YouTube. I’ll have to be creative with this one because it won’t even let me embed the trailer (boo!), but it’s worth the click-over. Click on the image to see the video on YouTube.

My goal, and it’s pretty simple, is to highlight all the good people out there working on how to solve the climate crisis. No one has a silver bullet, some ideas are going to go bust, while others will probably surprise even those who worked on developing them.

I am trying to counter our natural doomism, which leaves us frozen in apathy and unable to fight the good fight. And speaking of fighting, we may have a climate activist weighing in on things we can do and helping break down the IRA benefits available. I’m not going to fully commit him right now, as his life is cra-cra and I’d rather have him fighting IRL if that’s all he has time for at the moment. But I welcome any contribution he has time to make.

Climate Solutions: Positive Stories On Solutions and Innovation 1

Compare and contrast: Ducks in the rain and dogs on a rainy day

Climate Solutions: Positive Stories On Solutions and Innovation 2

Critter photos because I know what you guys really want

 

With all that being said, I’m not going to police the comments (I don’t have the energy) but if they devolve into “that will never work” “I know better than whomever” or “it’s all hopeless” I will stop posting these. It’s difficult enough to find time to put posts together only to have the discussion derailed by the third comment.

Other than that, I’m looking forward to sharing good news stories of climate activism and solutions.

For today, this is an open thread. If you want to share any links to good climate news info in the comments, I’ll check them out.

Climate Solutions: Positive Stories On Solutions and InnovationPost + Comments (69)

Balloon Juice – It’s That Time Again (Daytime Peeps Version)

by WaterGirl|  February 3, 202410:58 am| 65 Comments

This post is in: Balloon Juice, Open Threads

Posting this again this morning for the daytime and weekend Balloon Juice peeps.

 Thanks to everyone who jumped in yesterday!

Balloon Juice went ad-free over 2 years ago, and I hope you guys still appreciate that as much as I do!

It’s been quite awhile since we’ve had one of these posts, but it’s time, because we have on-going expenses.   Web hosting is monthly, and it’s not cheap.  Other expenses are annual (dropbox, design software for the calendar and postcards, Balloon Juice email addresses, Zoom, etc.)

And we like to keep the safety net so Cole doesn’t have to worry about the “what-ifs” of surprise expenses in a no-ads world.

If you donate, I promise that not one penny of what you donate will be used to supply Henry with a never-ending supply of furry friends to snuggle with.  Pinky swear!

Balloon Juice Is Still Ad-Free

How can you help?  (But only if you can afford it!)

°If you have signed up for a monthly donation but you’re in a different financial position than you were when you signed up, please feel free to cancel your monthly donation, with our thanks for having supported the site.

°If you keep thinking you’ll set up a monthly donation, but haven’t gotten around to it, or if the timing is right for increasing your donation, this would be a great time to do it.

°  If you have a monthly donation set up through PayPal, please consider switching that to Patreon. Patreon takes taxes off the top before the funds go into John’s account, so there are no surprises at tax time.

°  Make a one-time donation to the Safety Net. It turns out that having the safety net has already been helpful, as John gets clobbered with the tax bill for the the donations that come through PayPal, etc. Before you ask me exactly how much the tax bill was, I do not know the actual amount and Cole hates to talk about money, so I am not going to press him on that.

° If you want to send a one-time check for expenses or for the safety net, send me an email message I will send you Cole’s address.  (P.O.box)

You can donate to the safety net with Patreon, Venmo, Zelle, and paper check.  And even PayPal if that’s your only option, but please mark it as personal / gift and not payment for services.

Big thanks to everyone who helps keep Balloon Juice going!

If you have any questions, let me know!

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Balloon Juice – It’s That Time Again (Daytime Peeps Version)Post + Comments (65)

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