Russia must feel and remember that the aggressor loses the most from aggression – address by the President of Ukraine

21 January 2024 – 21:35

Dear Ukrainians!

Another week of this war and our active actions, our defense, is coming to an end. Since the beginning of this day alone, there have been about 60 battles. The most intense hostilities are in the Avdiivka sector, as well as in Bakhmut, Maryinka, Kupyansk directions, and in the South of our country. There were more than 50 Russian strikes with multiple launch rocket systems alone, as well as dozens of air and missile strikes.

On this day alone, Russian savages shelled more than a hundred cities, towns, and our Ukrainian villages in nine regions: from Chernihiv and Sumy to Mykolaiv and Kirovohrad. The most brutal Russian attacks were in Donetsk region. Unfortunately, there are wounded and dead. My condolences to all those who have lost their loved ones.

Russia will be held accountable for all this terror – it must be. If it hadn’t been for Moscow’s decisions to start this aggression and this terror, thousands and thousands of people would be alive today. That is why it is so important to bring Russia to full, fair accountability at all levels. At the individual level, so that every war criminal is held to account, every terrorist. And at the level of the entire terrorist state – through its assets and capabilities.

Russia must feel and remember forever that the aggressor loses the most from aggression. I am grateful to everyone who brings Russia’s accountability closer by all means – military, sanctions, legal, and political.

And we have already defined our Ukrainian priorities for the coming weeks. Our tasks are clear – both in terms of packages that will strengthen our position at the front, and in terms of political cooperation with partners, and in terms of what is needed for Ukraine’s financial stability.

A special priority is the European Union and relations with our closest neighbors. We are preparing more interaction and new communication, new important negotiations.

I am grateful to everyone who believes today, as they did last year and in 2022, that Russian terror must be defeated. Anything that strengthens Ukraine and protects our people adds strength to everyone in Europe and everyone in the world who values international law. Anything that weakens Russia and brings the war back home to Russia contributes to the stability of international relations and saves the world from even greater crises.

I thank everyone who fights and works for Ukraine! I thank everyone who saves the lives of Ukrainians!

Glory to Ukraine!

Christopher Miller has done a new interview with LTG Budanov, the Director of Ukraine’s Main Directorate of Intelligence/HUR.

Budanov on GUR activities behind enemy lines: “We do not foresee any drastic changes in the near future. Everything we have done, we will continue to do.”

Ukraine’s war prospects: “To say that everything is fine is not true. To say that there is a catastrophe is also not true.” https://t.co/WKyfZuffsv

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 21, 2024

Here are some excerpts: (emphasis mine)

No light enters the office of Ukraine’s military spymaster, Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov. The walls are fortified, the windows reinforced with sandbags, and the curtains drawn.

When Budanov, 38, arrived for a Financial Times interview, walking in through a doorway adorned with a religious icon, he immediately ordered an aide to turn off the lights. “I like the darkness,” he said.

As head of the defence ministry’s Main Intelligence Unit (GUR), Budanov has masterminded Ukraine’s covert war against Russia, becoming one of the most lionised figures in Kyiv’s fightback. The survivor of 10 known assassination attempts, he lives, more or less continuously, in this office on the outskirts of the capital, encamped with patriotic art and war memorabilia on the walls and his pet frog Petro swimming in a tank beside his desk.

Budanov’s métier is running attacks behind enemy lines in Russian-occupied territory and Russia itself. But the spy chief rarely takes credit for them, keeping Moscow and the rest of the world guessing about his directorate’s reach and abilities.

In his department’s latest feats this week, it flew attack drones as far as St Petersburg, striking an oil terminal, and targeted a gunpowder factory and an oil depot in Bryansk region, just north of the Ukrainian border.

The brazen tactics have at times irked Ukraine’s western backers; some fear it will provoke a brutal and perhaps even nuclear response from Russian President Vladimir Putin. The spy chief is unmoved by such concerns and vows to keep operating deep inside Russia to sabotage Putin’s war machine.

“We do not foresee any drastic changes in the near future,” Budanov said. “Everything we have done, we will continue to do.”

Budanov knows this will be a trying year for Ukraine, now fighting Russia for more than a decade since the Kremlin’s soldiers, without insignia, appeared in Crimea and the eastern Ukrainian Donbas region.

“To say that everything is fine is not true,” Budanov said when asked about Ukraine’s much-vaunted counteroffensive last year failing to achieve its objectives. “To say that there is a catastrophe is also not true.”

Ukraine will still manage to keep Putin at bay, he predicted, and has already proved that “the whole legend of [Russia’s] power is a soap bubble”.

A former special forces soldier who fought in the Donbas in 2014, Budanov has himself taken part in secret missions, including in the occupied Crimean peninsula. His body bears the scars: shrapnel from an anti-personnel mine once struck near his heart, nearly killing him; he has broken both his neck and back; and he has been shot in the arm.

He was appointed to run the GUR by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2020. His covert operations — the Kremlin blamed the GUR for an explosion on the Crimean bridge in October 2022 — have revitalised the agency, which long played second fiddle to Ukraine’s much larger domestic security service, the SBU.

For this Budanov enjoys an almost cult status among Ukrainians, who share memes with his likeness on social media when military equipment explodes in Russia or Russian-controlled areas.

But it has come at a cost. When the GUR chief does step out, he moves with an entourage of bodyguards and intelligence agents. Of the many assassination attempts against him — which he describes as “nothing special” — the closest call came in 2019, when a bomb placed beneath his vehicle exploded prematurely. He was uninjured.

His wife Marianna Budanova was less fortunate when she was intentionally poisoned with heavy metals in November, along with several GUR officers, according to the agency. “She’s getting treatment, she feels better now,” Budanov said. He declined to elaborate whether he or his wife was the intended target of the poisoning.

Budanov was reluctant to offer an assessment of Ukraine’s current military operations, deferring to the army’s general staff.

But he warned that “it is not even conceivable to think that we can do without mobilisation” — echoing the top brass’s call for more recruits. “The shortage [of manpower] is palpable,” he said.

Zelenskyy has said his army chiefs asked him to mobilise about 400,000 to 500,000 new soldiers to replace those killed or wounded, and to rest those involved in the most intense fighting.

A year ago, Budanov predicted that Ukrainian forces, riding high from successful 2022 counteroffensives that liberated much of the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, would push on all the way to Crimea.

Ukrainian troops never managed to decisively breach Russia’s heavily fortified defences: the frontline remains almost the same as it looked a year ago. But Budanov maintains he was not wrong.

“Although the original plans suggested something different, we kept our promise. This summer, our units repeatedly entered Crimea,” he said, referring to his commandos sneaking on to the peninsula to carry out raids on Russian bases.

Much, much more at the link!

Avdiivka:

Avdiivka holding 💪https://t.co/4eVW9HKkfb pic.twitter.com/Uzie34QF5X

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 21, 2024

One of russia's largest assaults on the Avdiivka axis in October 2023 was successfully repelled by Ukrainian warriors.

This video demonstrates the bravery of Ukrainian soldiers. They destroyed russian armored vehicles, leaving no chance for the invaders.

Glory to the Ukrainian… pic.twitter.com/WgzlHGLkOs

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 21, 2024

Lviv:

https://twitter.com/spooked75/status/1748945337601917309

What does Lviv look like at night? Many parts of old Lviv, especially the area where I Iive, look just like this. Beautiful single lane cobblestone streets. These side streets are very relaxing to walk down. In fact when I’m in the city center, I have my earbuds in and I’m often listening to classical music because it just fits the ambiance and architecture.

Sevastopol, Russian occupied Crimea:

In the last days, information was circulating that a Russian Tarantul-class corvette has been struck at the port of Russian-occupied Sevastopol by Ukrainian USVs. It was first brought up by the “Atesh” resistance group in Russian-occupied Crimea and caused the Russian regime to… pic.twitter.com/2giZwzPcJ8

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 20, 2024

In the last days, information was circulating that a Russian Tarantul-class corvette has been struck at the port of Russian-occupied Sevastopol by Ukrainian USVs. It was first brought up by the “Atesh” resistance group in Russian-occupied Crimea and caused the Russian regime to increase counter operations against them.

Satellite pictures showing the Sevastopol Bay back up the story that the Russian war ship has been indeed hit.

Source of pics: @InformNapalm

#Ukraine #Crimea #Sevastopol

Here’s more on the attack on the petroleum facility in Ust-Luga, which is in Leningrad Oblast:

Incident at the "Novatek – Ust'-Luga" gas-condensate plant near St. Petersburg as it happened.

The plant now "temporarily" stopped operations after last night's attack by unidentified flying objects. pic.twitter.com/zHsSCCUbEt

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 21, 2024

The “Novatek”company says that “external influences” caused the incident in one of their facilities.

The exact coordinates of the strike are:

59°42'33"N 28°26'13"E

Source of video: https://t.co/qDi22NzJmI#Russia #Leningrad #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/oblBtvyXmF

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 21, 2024

/4. Video of a drone attack on Ust-Luga pic.twitter.com/NASMGggbHE

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 21, 2024

/6. The fire is localized, but it is still burning pic.twitter.com/jhVxMnUA8W

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 21, 2024

Following the drone strike against the oil and gas terminals of Ust-Luga, all tanker loading operations have been suspended. Several fuel tankers are waiting near the Luga Bay.

Ust-Luga is Russia's largest maritime terminal for crude oil exports.

Source: @TankerTrackers and map… pic.twitter.com/6N3wLKg7z6

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 21, 2024

Major Russian gas terminal in Ust-Luga is non-operational following a drone attack. One of the two primary Baltic Sea energy-export outlets, it includes Rosneft oil terminal, gas, sulfur, and coal terminals. These attacks significantly challenge Russian logistics pic.twitter.com/S9NZNeGeit

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 21, 2024

Alaska:

I think he missed the cooling-off period a bit…

But I would still take this and earlier steps seriously. Putin is signalling both to us and to the Russians. The Alaska sale has been a big meme in the Russian sphere for years and he is telling Russians he is willing to give it a… https://t.co/jnfg5dfG5b

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 21, 2024

I think he missed the cooling-off period a bit… But I would still take this and earlier steps seriously. Putin is signalling both to us and to the Russians. The Alaska sale has been a big meme in the Russian sphere for years and he is telling Russians he is willing to give it a go, even if just to earn himself some extra points domestically.

Here’s the rest of the quoted thread from the Thread Reader App:

check this out – it’s not a joke 🤣😂

seriously – it is not 😂

Btw. Do you remember the banners “alaska is ours” ? 🤣😂

btw. yes I know he doesn’t write directly about alaska, but pay attention to the text and the heritage to which the document refers, did the “Russian empire” sell anything else beyond alaska? 😄 

I love it when an unserious country tries to prepare a serious document….when qualified personnel have emigrated abroad.. and the document prepares by the alcohol and not the human 😂🤣 

Russian Politician Hints at Alaska AnnexationA Russian politician and close confidante of Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that Moscow should consider taking back Alaska from “a weakened USA.”https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/russian-politician-hints-alaska-annexation

I tried to approach the subject humorously. However, the topic is not a joke – it is serious and requires attention. More sources:

Putin stokes tensions with US, declares 1867 sale of Alaska ‘illegal’A brief history of how Alaska became part of the United States: Russia sold it in 1867 for $7.2 million, a deal conside…https://essanews.com/putin-stokes-tensions-with-us-declares-1867-sale-of-alaska-illegal,6987041965938817a

The solution? First, more consolidation of allies and Nato 🇪🇺. Second, more humanitarian and military support for Ukraine – third, isolation, more sanctions imposed on Russia.

It is worth adding that 2 weeks ago there was a documentary on Russian “state” ( propaganda ) television – titled : Russian alaska

This also explains what we covered in the update the other night, which is billboards going up in Moscow with Putin’s statement that “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.”

This morning an electronic billboard on my way to work is displaying this Putin quote: “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.” pic.twitter.com/K7q5wUPHWN

— Steve Rosenberg (@BBCSteveR) January 15, 2024

"Russia's borders do not end anywhere" pic.twitter.com/JlkOBp8rj5

— Tahiti Trot (@TrotskyTrotter) January 21, 2024

Leaving aside the obvious Sarah Palin jokes, I don’t think Alaska is in jeopardy any time soon. But it makes it clear that within Putin’s bounded rationality, which seems irrational to us, he and Russia are waging a defensive effort in the world war that he believes the US, NATO, and the EU started to destroy Russia in the late aughts.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos tonight, so here’s some adjacent material:

A cat warms up in a Ukrainian Defender's jacket.

📹: Ukrinform pic.twitter.com/Bqn85jkcRs

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) January 21, 2024

PAW PATROL

Ukrainian kitties on the hunt for the rat Putin!

Hoomans are cats best friends.#AureFreePress #Caturday #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/3uSC3uDuSf

— Aure Free Press (@_Free_Press) January 18, 2024

What Ukrainian cat are you today? pic.twitter.com/gP7WuOmtee

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) January 21, 2024

Open thread!

Through the entire architecture of security commitments, we are effectively reviving the system of international law – address by the President of Ukraine

20 January 2024 – 17:30

I wish you good health, dear Ukrainians!

I have a few things to report about this day.

I’m already holding meetings regarding the upcoming week – our international events that we are planning.

It concerns relations with partners in Europe, in the European Union. We will add more activity.

It also relates to security commitments for Ukraine. We are preparing new agreements with partners – strong bilateral agreements. January and February are expected to bring appropriate results. We already see specific dates when new strong documents can be expected. I am grateful to our entire team involved in negotiations, to all the leaders, and to those countries ready for truly ambitious decisions.

Through the entire architecture of security commitments – a new architecture – we are effectively bringing to life, reviving the system of international law. And when justice is restored for Ukraine, when our security is reinstated, it will work for others in the world as well.

We are preparing further work with our key partners, including specific defense support right now, in these weeks and months. There will be new defense packages. I am grateful to all friends of Ukraine worldwide who understand that the battlefield cannot simply wait and that the saving of lives cannot be delayed. To all those who are trying to expedite the necessary decisions – they are needed right now.

Only in the past day, there were over a hundred intense combat clashes on the front lines. The most severe were in Avdiivka, Maryinka direction – Krasnohorivka, Lyman direction, Siversk direction, Kupyansk direction, and near Kherson– in Krynyky. Our resilience now, the destruction of the enemy now, is vital. There should be no illusions in Russia that they will succeed in anything. And I thank every one of our soldiers, everyone in Ukraine who fights now, works now and helps so that our people, our state can win this year.

I especially want to single out our soldiers today who are fighting in the South. In particular, Senior Soldier Serhiy Filonenko, from the 123rd Separate Territorial Defense Brigade. Thank you for your bravery! Chief Sergeant of the Logistics Company of the 124th Territorial Defense Brigade, Andriy Suchok. Thank you for significant combat achievements in Kherson region! Soldier Oleksandr Plakhotniuk, from the 38th Anti-Aircraft Missile Regiment. Thank you for precision during the repulsion of attacks by Russian terrorists on our ports in Odesa region.

Glory to all whose courage and effectiveness become Ukraine’s strength – the collective strength of our people! Let eternal and bright memory be for all those who fought for our state and gave their lives so that Ukraine could live. Today, Ukraine remembers the defenders of Donetsk airport – one of those battles that determined our modern history. Ukrainians are stronger than any circumstances. We all must be aware of this strength. And we must win in this war. For our people, for our state, for the Russian evil to forever remember that it will never gain anything more.

Glory to Ukraine!

„If Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks — months at best, according to two people familiar with the meeting…“

— Franz-Stefan Gady (@HoansSolo) January 20, 2024

From NBC:

WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden’s top aides bluntly told lawmakers in a private meeting on Wednesday that if Congress fails to authorize additional military aid for Ukraine in the coming days, Russia could win the war in a matter of weeks — months at best, according to two people familiar with the meeting.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan and the Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told the lawmakers that Ukraine will run out of certain air defense and artillery capabilities in the coming weeks, according to the people familiar with the meeting.

The grim assessment, which one White House official described as “incredibly stark,” was delivered as the future of Ukraine aid has never been more uncertain. It also comes as White House officials are increasingly alarmed at the prospect of Biden failing to follow through with his promise that the U.S. will be there for Kyiv “as long as it takes.”

In Wednesday’s meeting at the White House, Sullivan and Haines gave the top congressional leaders a classified time frame for when Ukraine’s key military resources will be significantly depleted, and a detailed assessment of the current dynamics on the battlefield, the two people familiar with the meeting said.

While Sullivan did not predict an outright imminent victory for Russia, a White House official said, he emphasized that Ukraine’s position would grow more difficult over the course of the year by offering specific date ranges of when the country will run low on various capabilities in the short-term.

The president’s aides told the lawmakers that the lack of aid would affect far more than Ukraine and could prompt other countries that rely on the U.S., including Japan and South Korea, to rethink their alliances, according to the people familiar with the meeting. Their message, these people said, was that a Russian victory simply because the U.S. couldn’t come through “will reverberate around the world.”

The bipartisan group of congressional leaders at the meeting agreed that providing aid to Ukraine is a national security priority, but acknowledged that there are disagreements about how to proceed legislatively, these people said.

Biden has warned for months, including in an Oval Office address to the nation, that a lack of new aid would be dire for Ukraine and the broader world order. The White House said last month that it had provided Ukraine with the last of available U.S. funds, a pronouncement that drew skepticism from some lawmakers, including even those who support Ukraine aid.

Sullivan and Haines predicted overall that, without more U.S. military aid, Ukrainian forces could only continue fighting the Russians for weeks, maybe months, according to the people familiar with the meeting. Russian President Vladimir Putin is making battlefield decisions based on Ukraine’s vulnerabilities since the Biden administration said last month it had provided Kyiv with the last of authorized U.S. military assistance, a White House official said.

For instance, Sullivan and Haines told the lawmakers, it’s no coincidence that Putin launched his largest aerial assault since the war began in February 2022 after Congress went home last month without approving additional aid, according to the people familiar with the meeting.

The president’s aides made the case that Ukraine is much more susceptible to Moscow’s attacks while Congress is at a standstill, these people said.

The two people familiar with Wednesday’s meeting said the administration officials went into greater detail on the U.S. assessment of Ukraine now and in the future.

Much more at the link if you can stomach it.

Bakhmut:

And now here’s Bakhmut.
Putin’s Russia means war, irrational hated towards the entire world, and senseless mutilation. pic.twitter.com/pLstaly6vP

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 20, 2024

Avdiivka:

Avdiivka.
The hellscape of Russian liberation. pic.twitter.com/sHGVIQVK39

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 20, 2024

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Strike on the Russian Fara-PV radar. Interestingly, the drone’s camera continued to broadcast for some time even after the detonation. Kherson region. https://t.co/v2ccNjSREA pic.twitter.com/QeBP05weUC

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 20, 2024

Lviv:

Kozak System concert in Lviv. Grateful shoutout to our partners: 🇵🇱 🇱🇻 🇱🇹 🇪🇪 🇩🇪 🇫🇷 🇬🇧 🇺🇸, and more. 🇺🇦 is fighting with the weapons provided by allies. Let’s build a wall between Russia and the civilized world, not just physically, but also in the minds.

📷 Nadiia Velychko pic.twitter.com/Fp0KZ3ZANI

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 20, 2024

Tula, Russia:

Heavy blasts over Russia's Tula right now.
The 'special military operation' has never been so just as planned and in such a lockstep with the schedule.

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) January 20, 2024

/2. Presumably photo of strike location in Tula. pic.twitter.com/PqTet6Lyws

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 20, 2024

Ust Luga, Russia:

/1. Russian media report about explosions and fire in the area of ​​the oil terminal of the sea port in the city of Ust-Luga, near St. Petersburg. Presumably one of the oil reservoirs is on fire. As reported by Russian media it was a drone attack.
Ust-Luga is located 860km from… pic.twitter.com/T4CdhmFxSF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 21, 2024

/1. Russian media report about explosions and fire in the area of ​​the oil terminal of the sea port in the city of Ust-Luga, near St. Petersburg. Presumably one of the oil reservoirs is on fire. As reported by Russian media it was a drone attack. Ust-Luga is located 860km from the Ukrainian border.

/3. Besides Ust-Luga drone attacks were reported tonight in the other Russian cities as well. https://t.co/BuGWq4qr4Z

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 21, 2024

Heavy explosions and large fires in the Leningrad Region, Russia, almost 900km from the Ukrainian border. According to the governor of the Leningrad region, the facilities of the Novatek natural gas company are compromised. Locals reported that they heard the sounds of drones… pic.twitter.com/wioj0BNugv

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 21, 2024

Heavy explosions and large fires in the Leningrad Region, Russia, almost 900km from the Ukrainian border. According to the governor of the Leningrad region, the facilities of the Novatek natural gas company are compromised. Locals reported that they heard the sounds of drones before the explosion.

Source: https://t.me/uniannet

#Russia #Leningrad #Ukraine

Bryansk Oblast, Russia:

Russian Volunteer Corps (a unit of Russian citizens fighting against Russians on the side of Ukraine) ambushes a Russian Ural truck on the territory of the Bryansk region, Russia. https://t.co/tAzdz8SyCX pic.twitter.com/siUmDH76d5

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 20, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. So here’s some adjacent material from the Ukrainian MOD:

Young Ukrainian 🐶 sniper.
The occupiers better watch out (Not).

📸: 17th Tank Brigade pic.twitter.com/LgroUfGgtf

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 20, 2024

Open thread!