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Open Threads

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War for Ukraine Day 1,264: Strategically Incoherent Delusion

by Adam L Silverman|  August 11, 20259:01 pm| 17 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Trump had thoughts about his meeting with Putin during his press conference earlier today.

“I’ll tell Putin to end the war — he won’t mess with me” sounds a lot like “Peace for our time.” We know how that turned out.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 2:15 PM

Trump openly admits relying on Viktor Orbán for information on the Russian war in Ukraine, despite Orbán’s ties to Russia and ongoing corruption scandals shaking his top party members and himself personally.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 12:48 PM

Trump: “There will be some changes in land … Russia has taken some very prime territory. They’ve taken largely ocean — in real estate we call it oceanfront property. That’s always the most valuable property.”

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) August 11, 2025 at 11:43 AM

I didn’t say they were good thoughts.

for the second time this briefing, Trump claims he’s “going to Russia” on Friday (he’s actually going to Alaska, which is in the United States)

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) August 11, 2025 at 11:56 AM

I’m sure 49 states are just as good as 50.

Trump’s been hallucinating that Ukraine started Russia’s war of conquest – and itching to do Putin’s bidding – for months, as I wrote in January.
Now, as the Russian house of cards economy is cracking, as long anticipated, Putin needs his pal’s help even more.

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— davidrlurie (@davidrlurie.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 4:31 PM

The worst part of this piece of the interview is his promise to resume normal trade with Russia if a deal is struck.

Since his deal involves handing Russia a chunk of Ukraine, lifting sanctions would let Russia recover, regroup, and devour Ukraine entirely within a few years.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 12:18 PM

Trump’s delusional belief that Ukraine started the war is straight up Russian agitprop. It’s what Putin, his aides, surrogates, catspaws, other Russian officials, and Russian state media, as well as their fellow travelers and useful idiots in Europe, the US, and other parts of the world have been pushing for over three years. Specifically, that Ukraine started the war because President Zelenskyy and his government are all NAZIs, were abusing Russian speaking Ukrainians in Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea, Kherson, Kharkiv, Sumy, Zaprizhzhia, etc, and Putin just had to invade to clean out the NAZI regime in Kyiv, protect the Russian speaking Ukrainians, and liberate the rest of Ukraine. Once again: NAZI is how Russians refer to anyone who opposes Russia and its interests and that Russia was the real victim of the NAZIs not the Jews, that Zelenskyy is both Jewish and a native Russian speaking Ukrainian, and that no one was abusing Russian speaking Ukrainians. Unfortunately we know that Trump speaks to Putin on his personal cell phone regularly. He did during his first term, he did during the Biden interregnum, and he’s done it during his second term. The result is that he’s been inundated by Putin with Putin’s narrative of the war. Instead of recognizing that Ukraine is trying to fend off a genocidal Russian re-invasion, that Zelenskyy is a an unexpected (and unexpectedly effective) war time president, and that Ukraine is fighting for its national, political, social, economic, and religious survival, Trump believes it is the aggressor and Russia the victim. It also does not help that he’s both historically illiterate and an incurious ignoramus. He has no idea of the history here, has neither the interest nor the ability to overcome that knowledge gap, and, as saw the other day when he declared that the Armenians and Azerbaijanis had been fighting for thirty-five years, just has no idea what he’s talking about.

Which is why we are where we are: Trump telegraphing that he’s going to give significant portions of Ukraine away to Putin at the end of the week. He has no right to do so, but he’s deluded himself into believing he’s the great peacemaker. That he can easily resolve all these conflicts. Which, I’m sure, Putin has encouraged as part of flattering Trump’s enormous ego. Again: Putin needs to create strategic time and space. He needs it to consolidate what Russia’s military actually has captured, he needs it to get out from under the sanctions regime, he needs it to reconstitute his forces once he can get out from under the sanctions, and he needs it so he can then send his troops to try to take the rest of Ukraine and then keep going into the Baltics or Poland or Romania.

The question is not so much what Ukraine will do; they won’t accept or recognize any of this and keeping fighting to the best of their abilities. The question is what Ukraine’s non-US allies and partners – Canada, Britain, the EU member states, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, etc – are both willing and able to do. They no longer have the luxury of time or of believing Trump can be managed or cajoled into doing the right thing. Events have overtaken them and they have to make some hard decisions. Those decisions will determine not just how Ukraine defends itself from Russia’s genocidal re-invasion, but what Europe and the global system look like going forward.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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There Is No Indication Whatsoever That the Russians Have Received Signals to Prepare for a Post-War Situation – Address by the President

11 August 2025 – 20:47

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

The key points for today. I held a Staff meeting – a special meeting focused specifically on the issues raised by our servicemembers. When I visited the Kharkiv and Sumy regions, these were exactly the questions they asked. Regarding pickup trucks and other equipment – the matter has been resolved. The brigades will receive both the necessary funds directly and the ability to purchase exactly the pickup trucks, ATVs, and other equipment they need. Combat brigades will get this opportunity very soon. The government is to make a decision already this week. The funds have also been allocated. A very important point is that we are increasing the funds available to the brigades for procurement. This is direct financing, which will provide more opportunities to meet combat needs. This includes drones and more. We have agreed to change the approach to determining the amount of funding. There will be more funds for each combat brigade – the calculation is as follows: 7 million hryvnias for each battalion engaged in combat missions. Of course, we continue to cut bureaucracy. Writing off property and equipment will become easier. Corps commanders and brigade commanders will be able to process write-offs even faster. I gave instructions to immediately resolve the important issue of the timeframe for presenting state awards to our warriors. Too much time passes between the submission for an award and its presentation. Far too much time. The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has already identified which documents and approvals are unnecessary – all will be streamlined. The award documents will also be changed – instead of the old award booklets, there will be new documents that do not need to be filled out by hand. The timeframes must be such that people can truly feel respect for themselves and for their actions in defending our state. Decisions are also being prepared on other fundamental matters. Issues of motivation, personnel, training centers, and communication down to the battalion and company level – all of this has also been worked through. The decisions will be made.

Today, our team delivered a report following meetings in the United Kingdom. Andriy Yermak and Rustem Umerov reported on all important discussions – both public and non-public details. I would like to thank everyone who stands with Ukraine.

Today, there was also a report from the intelligence and military command on what Putin is counting on and what he is actually preparing for, including military preparations. He is definitely not preparing for a ceasefire or an end to the war. Putin is determined only to present a meeting with America as his personal victory and then continue acting exactly as before, applying the same pressure on Ukraine as before. So far, there is no indication whatsoever that the Russians have received signals to prepare for a post-war situation. On the contrary, they are redeploying their troops and forces in ways that suggest preparations for new offensive operations. If someone is preparing for peace, this is not what he does. We continue to keep our partners informed about the real situation on the battlefield, in diplomacy, and in Russia’s planning of further actions.

Today, I have already spoken with the Prime Minister of Canada, the Crown Prince and Prime Minister of Saudi Arabia, and the President of Lithuania. Later today, further talks with European friends are planned. I thank everyone for their support. An important conversation took place with the Prime Minister of India. Everyone is united by an understanding of clear facts. First – Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity must be respected. Second – issues concerning the war against Ukraine must be resolved only with Ukraine’s participation. Third – Russia must take the necessary steps to end this war. So far, Russia has not taken a single step. Today, Prime Minister Modi and I discussed in great detail the possibilities for influencing Russia’s position. I remember how the Prime Minister of India has said more than once that our time is not a time for war. And real steps are needed to make this a reality – peace is needed.

Tomorrow will also be a day of our active communication with partners. At all levels, we continue to engage with the United States of America. The Office team, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and everyone needed for effective work – all are involved. And I thank everyone in Ukraine who firmly supports and strengthens the state’s position and our defense of national interests. We stand strong – all together.

And one more thing.

Today, I want to recognize our warriors – our border guard warriors. Together with all those serving in the Defense Forces, our border guards defend Ukraine on the frontline and, of course, in the border areas – along our state border that is recognized by everyone. The “Hart,” “Steel Border,” and “Forpost” border guard brigades, the units of the Sumy, Kharkiv, Volyn, and Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi border guard detachments. The border guards of the “Pomsta” brigade and the “Phoenix” unit. I thank you for your resilience, for destroying the occupier! Ukraine must achieve its goals, and these goals are just: to protect lives, to defend independence, and to secure a dignified peace for Ukraine. Thank you all.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

257th day of the #GeorgiaProtests.

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— László Róbert Mézes (@laszlorobertmezes.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 3:47 PM

All the usual Georgian accounts I follow haven’t posted in the past two days. Which could be nothing or it could be everything.

The US:

GEN (ret) Keane is the most senior pro-Trump retired national security professional/senior military leader. He has a very clear eyed take on the upcoming Putin-Trump meeting:

The entire tirade about Russian tanks being stuck in the mud at the beginning of the full-scale invasion is bull, by the way. They moved by highways and streets in columns one by one, which made them an easy target. See “mud” below. 👇

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 11:59 AM

Even the most ardent pro-Kremlin vatniks know how stupid it is to repeat the “Kyiv in 3-4 days” rubbish. And Russia’s army DID come by the highways – and got slaughtered. Video shows a Russian armored column being ambushed in Skybyn, east of Kyiv.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 2:22 PM

This what Russian channels are saying Putin plans to get out of Trump this week:

1/ Russia is reportedly planning to declare the war in Ukraine over after a peace treaty is signed by Trump on 15 August – but the intention appears to be to convince Trump that Ukraine is a recalcitrant warmonger that doesn’t deserve any more aid if it refuses to go along. ⬇️

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— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

2/ The Fighterbomber Telegram channel writes:

“There was a series of broadcasts on our federal channels where it was stated in black and white that on August 15, the presidents of the USA and Russia will sign an agreement after which the Special Military Operation will end.

— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

3/ “Of course, I would like it to happen, but it seems to me that such statements are a cunning plan.

— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

4/ “The plan is simple. We demonstrate to the whole world our desire and wish to end the SMO (of course, taking into account the realities on the ground and actually eliminating the reasons for the beginning of the SMO) and we demonstrate this desire and wish at the highest level possible.

— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

5/ “Of course, we have done everything possible to end the war, but Zelensky and his friends are finding a bunch of excuses to continue it, and we are not to blame.

— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

6/ “Objectively speaking, if the negotiations result in at least a cessation or reduction of military aid to Ukraine from the United States on a long-term basis, that would already be wonderful.

For us.”

— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

7/ If this prediction is accurate, it suggests that Russia aims to trap Ukraine by convincing Trump to sign a peace treaty – without Ukrainian involvement or consent – with terms that are unacceptable to the Ukrainians, then blaming Zelensky when he rejects it.

— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

8/ In the aftermath of such a rejection, Russia and anti-Ukraine voices in the US would encourage Trump to see it as a personal insult to himself and urge him to block further aid to Ukraine, including European provision of US weapons.

— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

9/ Reports suggest that the US is considering an agreement under which Ukraine would be forced to withdraw from the unoccupied part of the Donetsk region, surrendering its extensive defensive lines, in exchange for Russia agreeing to a ceasefire. /end
bsky.app/profile/chri…

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— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

Source:
t.me/bomber_fight…

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— ChrisO_wiki (@chriso-wiki.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:30 AM

Chris Owens is an amateur military historian who wrote the history of L. Ron Hubbard’s service in the US Navy.

Russian state media propagandists have already arrived in Alaska to make a news report saying that the American state has “more than 700 toponyms with Russian roots.”

Propagandists keep making hints about taking Alaska back.

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 9:31 AM

Yay I found Americans that still give a fuck

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 3:28 PM

Canada:

From The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation:

Prime Minister Mark Carney and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke by phone Monday, reaffirming their agreement that Ukraine must be a party to any discussions about a possible end to the war in that country.

Speaking in advance of the Friday meeting in Alaska between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, Carney and Zelenskyy welcomed Trump’s leadership in working toward a lasting peace for Ukraine.

“The two leaders underscored that decisions on the future of Ukraine must be made by Ukrainians [and] international borders cannot be changed by force,” said a statement detailing the discussion that was released by the Prime Minister’s Office.

The statement also said Ukraine’s allies must continue to keep pressure on Russia to end its aggression and that any peace deal must include a “robust and credible” security guarantee.

Trump announced in a social media post on Friday that he would be meeting with Putin in Alaska on Aug. 15.

“I am grateful for Canada’s support for Ukraine and our people,” Zelenskyy said in a social media post after speaking with Carney. “We agreed that no decisions concerning Ukraine’s future and the security of our people can be made without Ukraine’s participation.”

Zelenskyy expressed skepticism that Putin genuinely intends to end his invasion of Ukraine, saying it’s obvious “the Russians simply want to buy time.”

The Ukrainian president said that until his country is invited to the negotiating table and Kyiv is given security guarantees, “sanctions against Russia must remain in force and be constantly strengthened.”

More at the link.

Again, the time of choosing has come. These statements are all factually correct, but all that matters is what Canada and the other allies are actually willing to do if Trump cuts a separate deal with Putin on Friday.

Germany:

⚡️ Germany’s Rheinmetall will double 155mm shell production in Ukraine to 300,000 a year, boosting Kyiv’s self-sufficiency and cutting reliance on foreign supplies.

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— UNITED24 Media (@united24media.com) August 11, 2025 at 9:18 AM

From United24 Media:

German defense giant Rheinmetall has announced plans to double its 155mm artillery shell production capacity at its plant in Ukraine, which is still under construction. The move is aimed at bolstering Ukraine’s self-sufficiency and reducing dependence on supplies from Western allies in the future, according to the German Aid to Ukraine project report on August 10.

Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger revealed the ambitious plan during the company’s Q2 2025 Conference Call on August 7, confirming that the original production target of 150,000 shells per year will be significantly increased. After an initial ramp-up period of one to two years, the factory will be capable of producing 300,000 155mm shells annually.

The expansion of production is seen as a significant step for Ukraine, which has relied heavily on Western countries for artillery shell supplies during the ongoing war. With local production, Ukraine will not only improve its independence but also reduce the logistical complexities associated with international shipments, German Aid to Ukraine project claims.

However, while the announcement marks a positive development for Ukraine’s defense industry, the project has not been without its challenges. Papperger expressed frustration with the pace of progress. He noted that while construction of a similar plant in Germany had already been completed, the facility in Ukraine is still under construction, despite starting at nearly the same time.

Either way, while Rheinmetall faces setbacks, there is no indication that the completion of the factory will be delayed. Despite the challenges, production is expected to begin next year as initially planned, bringing much-needed artillery shells to Ukraine’s armed forces.

More at the link.

Poland:

“The Russo-Ukrainian war cannot benefit Russia as the aggressor.” – said Polish PM Tusk. Ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting, he stressed the West won’t accept Russia’s terms, territorial issues need Ukraine’s input, and Russia will threaten Europe, including Poland, for many years.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 8:53 AM

Azerbaijan:

Azerbaijan allocates 2 million dollars for humanitarian aid to Ukraine, — President Aliyev signed the decree

These funds are directed to support the Ukrainian energy system, which was damaged due to russian attacks.

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— SAINT JAVELIN (@saintjavelin.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 4:36 AM

Lithuania:

From Gabriel Landsbergis, the former Lithuanian foreign minister:

The shameful plan to betray Ukraine “de facto, but not de jure”

If Ukraine has no choice but to accept “de facto” occupation — that’s because WE failed.

Not because Ukrainians failed, not because some mysterious “shit happened”, but because for years we ignored all the warnings, repeated all the mistakes of history, kicked the can down the road and refused to do what it takes to defend the rules and principles that enable sustainable peace and prosperity. This is on us.

We are the architects of this de facto defeat, so now we are trying to pretend it came out of nowhere and we did the best we could to stop it. In a spectacular display of unbombed westsplaining, Mark Rutte is suggesting that everything will be OK in the long run, like it was OK in the Baltic States after decades of de facto occupation by jolly old Uncle Joe Stalin.

Well, I have shrugged off a lot of dumb hot takes about my country over the last few years, but this one is literally sickening. Rutte is revealing that the latest genius 5D chess move to save Ukraine is to casually throw millions of people into a black hole of oppression, torture, rape, kidnapping, murder and destruction of national identity — “de facto, but not de jure”.

And the proponents of this plan will keep a straight face while they cite the misery of the occupation of the Baltic States as a shining example that Ukraine should happily walk into.

In his FT column, Gideon Rachman says little to fill the gap in Rutte’s world view:

“The Soviet Union’s annexation of the Baltic states after 1940 was never legally recognised by the US and most European countries. But it was a fact of life, until, eventually, the Baltic states regained their independence.”

Yikes, let’s unpack that.

The occupation wasn’t “a fact of life”, it was a fact of death.

“Eventually” was after decades of deportations, killing, grinding terror and violent attempts to turn everybody into russians.

“Regained their independence” was being crushed under Gorbachev’s tanks while western leaders pleaded with us to give up our fight for freedom.

So… this is the path to peace we are supposed to offer to Ukraine with a smile? These are the glorious new security guarantees that will erase the shame of the Budapest Agreement and allow Ukrainians to have faith in the future?

There are even US Ambassadors talking about how countries can “earn” certain territories and therefore presumably “deserve” them. Would it be paranoid of me to wonder if we just opened the door for Russia to “earn” Narva and Vilnius “de facto”?

If Ukraine continues to fight, you will soon hear mumblings that the “stubborn Ukrainians” refuse to comprehend the genius of this “realistic” peace plan that, in reality, would move Putin’s weapons closer to Kyiv.

We will hear more condemnation of Ukraine for daring to complain instead of saying thank you twice. As I wrote recently, I see parallels in Churchill’s abandonment of Eastern Europe to Stalin, and now I see Mark Rutte on TV broadcasting the echoes of that particularly nasty betrayal.

So I would ask all decisionmakers discussing their various technical office-based solutions to also talk to victims of Russia’s aggression and learn a little bit more about the “reality on the ground” that these plans are supposed to be dealing with.

I would suggest talking to the friends and family of Viktoriia Roschyna, a journalist who was recently laid to rest in Kyiv. Her body was returned after two years in Russian hands, her brain and eyes removed. Ask her parents if they recognise the “reality” presented to them in Alaska. Time and time again you will find that the “realistic” proposals being floated for our security appear naive and insulting to anyone who has any experience of living under occupation by Moscow.

We democracies and self-declared allies of Ukraine should be ashamed by our failure to keep Ukrainians safe. We should be determined to change course, not inspired to invent semantic tools that reduce our responsibility, reward the aggressor and erase the victim’s humanity.

When I ask to defend basic principles with honour, am I asking too much?

The difference between de facto and de jure does not matter to a woman being raped in front of her children. She cannot comfort them afterwards by telling them their trauma is de facto, not de jure.

The difference between de facto and de jure matters only to politicians discussing paper agreements that they know will not work and will not be defended. Only in their unbombed minds can their approach be called “realistic”.

Landsbergis has been one of the most, if not the most, clear eyed of any European official in regard to Putin’s intentions and objections for Ukraine and for Europe.

Back to Ukraine.

Donetsk Oblast:

In the past 24 hours, russian attacks on Donetsk Oblast claimed 2 civilian lives and injured 11. Dozens of homes and civilian infrastructure were damaged.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 6:22 AM

Kharkiv Oblast:

An unexploded aerial bomb was discovered in a field in Kharkiv region. This is what farming looks like when your neighbor is a genocidal maniac.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 4:44 AM

Soledar, Russian occupied Donetsk Oblast:

Air strike on Russian positions in Soledar, Donetsk region. (48.7016086, 38.0658684)

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 8:34 AM

Sumy Oblast:

FPV strike on the Russian infantry during a river crossing.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 4:11 AM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

A “waiting” drone connected via fiber optic cable could have taken the lives of Ukrainian soldiers near Kupiansk, but fighters from the 114th Brigade quickly detected the Russian trap and destroyed it.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 11:56 AM

Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia:

Instrument-Making Plant in Arzamas, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast, Russia, was attacked 😏🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:30 PM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Instead of posting a cute Ukrainian cat for #InternationalCatDay, I want to share the reality of what the Hachiko team faces. After a huge missile strike in Kramatorsk, Alena went to help & met 90 year-old Raya, who miraculously wasn’t hurt, but could only find 2 of her 8 cats.

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) August 8, 2025 at 9:31 PM

Raya couldn’t believe we would give her cat food for free. We will help repair her windows & keep bringing food. Raya used to live with her granddaughter, but she was killed in another Russian bombing last year. 😔

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) August 8, 2025 at 9:31 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,264: Strategically Incoherent DelusionPost + Comments (17)

Monday Evening Open Thread: Not the Happiest Campers

by Anne Laurie|  August 11, 20254:51 pm| 98 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, Trumpery

I mean they look absolutely -thrilled- to be there

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 10:23 AM

Following up on Betty’s earlier post… the National Guard / FBI ‘jackboots’ seem no more pleased with their new Trumpist assignment than the DC natives:

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OBJ GREEN ZONE HAS JUST FALLEN TO A CROWD OF STAFFER AGED MALES SOMEONE GET ME QRF TO BLOCK MSR KALORAMA RIGHT FUCKING NOW

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— James (@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:45 PM

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Most people have no idea that there are already 32 federal law enforcement agencies with a presence in DC and more than a half dozen local law enforcement agencies. Violent crime keeps going down while Trump escalates his lies to keep Epstein off of the headlines.

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— Sanho Tree (@sanho.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 1:56 PM

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The entire enterprise from LA to DC is just about keeping the feds too busy with pointless shows of fascistic force to catch actual high-level criminals. Many of whom are Trump's good friends and donors.

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— Zeddy (@zeddary.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 8:17 PM

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Are the National Guard being deployed on both sides of the river or only in places that the national media covers?

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 1:10 PM

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show full post on front page

Count me as heartened that the guy who wants to do a little junta in DC is a military dumbass.

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— Zeddy (@zeddary.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 1:05 PM

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The cybercriminal who simped Elon Musk hard enough to get access to your mom's social security checks got beat up by a child and so now we're doing 1770 Boston in the nation's capital.

— Zeddy (@zeddary.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 11:21 AM

(Seriously.)

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NG 1LT seeing his position overrun by a crowd of drunk Deloitte consultants asking what his LinkedIn is:

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— James (@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:50 PM

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This is possibly the biggest networking event DC has ever had

— James (@gravitysra1nbow.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:01 PM

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I doubt it will happen but I hope every Republican appointee gets pulled over & harassed by the Trumpified DC police & national guard.

— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 11:53 AM

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Hidden benefit that he's going to create a massive cleave between federal LE and urban police departments who hate this shit.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 10:49 AM

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Op let me know if this has ever worked lmao

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 11:05 AM

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I think Trump's problem here is that if he's talking about extending the use of federal LE, he's going to run out of people very quickly.
If he's going to try and do NG, he's going to end up creating a morale crisis in the ranks.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 10:49 AM

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That said, I have significant concern that we're about to some real serious human rights violations to homeless people.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 10:56 AM

True. Per Rolling Stone, “Trump Declares War on Unhoused D.C. Residents: ‘No MR. NICE GUY’”:

Donald Trump demanded that unhoused Washington, D.C., residents “have to move out [of the city] IMMEDIATELY.” The statement comes amid his continuing attacks on homeless people after signing an executive order pressing local governments across the country to unhoused people from the streets.

“We’re having a News Conference tomorrow in the White House,” Trump wrote Sunday on Truth Social. “I’m going to make our Capital safer and more beautiful than it ever was before. The Homeless have to move out, IMMEDIATELY. We will give you places to stay, but FAR from the Capital.”…

Trump has hinted at his plans to attack individuals without permanent housing for years. In 2022, he called for using “large parcels of inexpensive land in the outer reaches of the cities” to create tent cities full of unhoused people — essentially internment camps. His 2024 campaign plan proposed cracking down on people who are unhoused, addicted to drugs, or mentally ill by putting them in institutions, forced substance use treatment, or incarceration…

A June 2024 decision by the conservative majority in the Supreme Court made criminalizing homelessness easier by allowing cities to ban sleeping outdoors…

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the denizens of washington dc are going to both use tried and true methods and invent new creative ways to fuck with the goon squad tomorrow and over the next couple weeks
thumbtacks are super cheap, btw, just neat things to know

— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:43 PM

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To be clear, it's white DC residents who should make "good trouble" first. Black residents will be ready to post your bail.
And, yes, this is an understanding I have with my friends.

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— Irie DC (@iriedc.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 3:26 PM

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unless its the mlk monument

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— not an art thief (@famousartthief.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 11:22 AM

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Risks to societal stability aside, military occupations of this city also happen to make for great matchmaking

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— John Q. Public (@publius24.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:28 PM

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Monday Evening Open Thread:  Not the Happiest Campers

I mean I generally think that the time between the midterms in '26 and the seating of the new congress that is almost certainly going to be hostile is probably the most tenuous time we're gonna have.

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— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 11, 2025 at 10:43 AM

Monday Evening Open Thread: Not the Happiest CampersPost + Comments (98)

The Assault on D.C.

by Betty Cracker|  August 11, 202511:24 am| 282 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Remember a couple of months ago when we talked about revolutionary logic? Atlantic columnist Anne Applebaum shared a theory that when revolutionary governments start failing, they escalate violence to consolidate power.

In June, after the military parade flop, Trump threatened to send invading forces into large American cities with Democratic governance. He followed through with an assault on Los Angeles that is ongoing.

Today, flailing badly, Trump is announcing a military invasion of Washington, D.C.

Posts from Donald Trump announcing the "liberation" of DC.

 

Here’s NYT coverage of the announcement taking place this morning at the White House:

President Trump has repeatedly threatened a federal takeover of Washington, and his moves to bring the city’s police force under federal control and deploy the National Guard appear to be firm steps in that direction.

There is of course crime in Washington but President Trump is describing a Mad Max-like hellscape version of the city that many people who live here are unlikely to recognize. “Our capital city has been overtaken by violent gangs and bloodthirsty criminals, roving mobs of wild youth, drugged out maniacs and homeless people,” he said.

President Trump was just talking about a carjacking incident. While the number of carjackings in the Washington, D.C. did spike in 2023, they have declined significantly over the past 18 months. The number of murders is down 34 percent from the first seven months of 2023.

“I’m going to Russia on Friday,” President Trump says at the news conference. He’s actually going to Alaska to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

President Trump formally declares a public safety emergency in Washington, D.C. Pam Bondi, the attorney general, will be overseeing the federal takeover of the city’s police forces. This move is in line with Trump’s tendency to assign his cabinet members multiple jobs.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says members of the Washington, D.C. National Guard will be “flowing” into the capital over the coming week. He did not say how many.

Crazy shit, and it’s still going on, with all the Fox News goons now employed by the federal government gawping and nodding along, including Winebox Pirro. So, “Big Balls” getting beat up by 15-year-olds is the Reichstag Fire, I guess. Stupidest timeline ever.

Open thread.

The Assault on D.C.Post + Comments (282)

New Angel Match from Idaho Flaneuse!

by WaterGirl|  August 11, 20258:45 am| 28 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Targeted Political Fundraising 2025-26

We have a brand new Balloon Juice Angel today!

Idaho Flaneuse will be matching up to $50 per person until we hit $500!

Let’s do the math: $50  donation + $50 Angel match = $100, which will be matched by the external donor for another $100.

So this is a 4x match!


Donate

Just take whatever amount you donate, up to $50, and multiply by 4 to see how much Four Directions will get for the Native vote in Virginia.  A $25 donation will pay for another half a day of direct voter contact.  $50 will pay for a full day (or 2 half days)!

Our Sunday Angel Match from frosty took us to just over $15,000!  So at this point we are at $46,000 for the Native vote.

The last $15k in the thermometer, with the external match, will take them to $76,000.  That’s a lot of direct contact with voters.

Can we do this?

P.S. I would love to hear where that nym comes from. :-)

 

New Angel Match from Idaho Flaneuse!Post + Comments (28)

Monday Morning Open Thread: Off to the (Local) Races

by Anne Laurie|  August 11, 20257:04 am| 171 Comments

This post is in: Local Races, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

If you live in one of the cities this service covers, this could be a good way to help your community *and* pick up some spare cash!

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— rahaeli (@rahaeli.bsky.social) August 8, 2025 at 11:23 AM

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ICYMI – Trump’s “booming economy” is circling the drain.
This is what happens when you elect a con man to run the country like one of his bankrupt casinos.
*Post by Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics.

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— Christopher Webb (@cwebbonline.com) August 10, 2025 at 7:47 PM

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not that this will happen, but the republican party losing 53% of trump’s vote would put dem supermajorities in both the house and senate

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— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) August 9, 2025 at 7:05 PM

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Lest we forget:

I really want to bang on this point: when Congress comes back they are immediately and predictably going to be pickled in the delicious brine of Republicans headed for a Virginia wipeout

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:32 AM

Additionally they’ll be looking down the barrel of primary maneuvering, which potential gerrymanders tend to make more threatening rather than less

you may recall this approximate date as when the last two Presidencies ran out of legislative steam and, generally, had copartisan polling start to fall out from under them

Explain? (Don't worry about the metaphors; explain what you mean will happen in the "brine"?)

— Cathy Gellis (@cathygellis.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:39 AM

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fear and flopsweat from R electeds

— post malone ergo propter malone (@proptermalone.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:40 AM

Monday Morning Open Thread: Off to the (Local) RacesPost + Comments (171)

Late Night Open Thread: Where’s *Our* Truth & Reconciliation Commission?

by Anne Laurie|  August 10, 202511:50 pm| 39 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Politics, Republican Venality, Trump Crime Cartel

Said it before, will say it again: The worst political blunder of my lifetime was letting Nixon’s CREEPsters scuttle off to think-tanks and other safe havens, rather than pursuing them to the full extent of the law, down to the last lowly Dick Cheney. Gerry Ford’s ‘benevolence’ led directly to the Brooks Brothers Riot, which led to the January 6th Insurrection…

The astonishing thing about Watergate, in contrast to today, is how the President was actually shamed into leaving office.
Imagine that: shame.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) August 8, 2025 at 2:56 PM

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A lot of responses say Nixon wasn't driven out by shame.
1) If you listen to his departure speech, that was definitely a man who was – at that moment at least – ashamed.
2) His own party forced him out, because they felt what he did could not be defended.
Imagine either happening today.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) August 8, 2025 at 7:18 PM


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Shame (as opposed to guilt) is a collective determination that certain things cannot be excused, cannot be ignored, cannot be brushed aside. They must have consequences.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) August 9, 2025 at 12:10 AM


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People saying "Nixon wasn't shamed from office, he was forced out by Republican Senators telling him to resign or be removed" are in fact describing the dynamic of being shamed.

— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) August 9, 2025 at 12:12 AM

Paul Musgrave, at his Substack Systemic Hatred. “Nixon Won”:

For a long time, I’ve tried to make August 9 into an American holiday: Resignation Day. Yes, Richard Nixon gave his resignation address to the nation on August 8, but it wasn’t until noon Eastern time on August 9 that he surrendered the powers of the presidency.

I had a dream. One day, we would sit on our lawns and sip Nixon’s favorite wine (Château Lafite Rothschild)—or at least a cheap California red that he would serve to White House guests while he was privately served the good stuff. We would lay out a slice of pineapple, some cottage cheese, and a glass of milk—Nixon’s favorite lunch!—like an empty seat at the Passover table. And we would listen to anti-regime songs, like “Ohio” and (funkier) Stevie Wonder’s “You Haven’t Done Nothin’” . All of this to commemorate a great political victory and to remind us that vigilance can work…

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Why should Resignation Day be a civic holiday? Because it was the U.S. version of the Glorious Revolution—the deposition of an abusive ruler to affirm a political order. (And, happily, a political order much more fair and deserving of honor than that upheld by the English crown before or after some Dutch monarchs took title to it.) The saga of Watergate is about vastly more than a break-in (there were, for instance, multiple-break-ins): it was about an attempt to systematically debase and corrupt U.S. governmental institutions, from the statistical agencies to the security apparatus, in order to extend the rule of one leader.

Nixon’s crimes against the Constitution do not even begin with the break-in at the Democratic National Committee, and they continued long afterward. To summarize the summary of the Senate Watergate Committee report: Nixon’s coterie directed the use of official and para-official resources to harass the media; intimidate and sabotage other presidential campaigns; solicited campaign contributions—really, bribes—with the implicit promise of presidential favors; used those funds to further illegal activities; instituted reprisals against activists and critics; falsified government and other documents; destroyed records; suborned perjury and otherwise obstructed justice; turned the CIA and FBI into accessories; and used official resources to reward friends and allies. (And this list does not even include unrelated abuses, like that of the General Services Agency to upgrade the president’s private residences.)…

… The presidency as Donald Trump wields it is far more unconstrained than that Nixon occupied. Indeed, given contemporary Supreme Court rulings regarding presidential immunity and bribery, many infamous abuses of the Nixon administration might not even qualify. (Hell, it’s possible that even Spiro Agnew’s graft—which included literally accepting cash in his office—wouldn’t qualify these days.) Many of the laws that sought to rein in the presidency have been eroded or vitiated—some gradually, some suddenly. And norms? There should be a plaque outside the West Wing: This place is not a place of honor.

Some of this erosion has taken decades to unfold. Some of it has unfolded quickly, within extremely recent memory. (Trump vs United States was 13 months ago!) All of it matters.

The presidency is now vastly closer to being an elected dictatorship than at any peacetime point in U.S. history. When I was young and read more (actual) reactionary thought, I recall that conservatives of the Human Events ilk were agog at the use of declarations of emergency to put through programs expanding presidential power. Trump uses emergency declarations like a punchline—an abuse of power that is gross in more ways than one.

Checks and balances? Obviously, the other co-ordinate branches of the federal government, and even most state governments, are not balancing in any meaningful degree. (Some political scientists are rushing to point at this or that third-order balancing, which is the literal definition of the forest/trees confusion.) The real checks, which were undertaken by institutions like the media, unions, and universities, have been eviscerated. (Nixon would have dreamed of using antitrust powers to break the CBS News division. What was once political science fiction is now political science fact.)

It’s hard, then, to celebrate Resignation Day. But that doesn’t mean we should forget it. Rather, we should observe it, as penance and as prayer. (The penance can involve actually eating the cottage cheese as ritual purification.) If America is united by a civic religion, we need a day of remembrance.

Watergate kicked off a multi-decade project by the right wing to insulate Republican leaders from accountability.

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— Aaron Huertas (@aaronhuertas.bsky.social) August 9, 2025 at 11:03 AM

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We had a press corps that was more interested in informing the public, than in entertaining their wealthy owners.
That meant there were actual consequences for Republican shamelessness.
Today, there are no consequences. The media actively supports them, and actively lies about Dems.

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— Democrats In Array Thanks Joe Biden (@demsinarray.bsky.social) August 8, 2025 at 8:31 PM

Late Night Open Thread: Where’s *Our* Truth & Reconciliation Commission?Post + Comments (39)

War for Ukraine Day 1,263: Ripple Effects

by Adam L Silverman|  August 10, 20259:47 pm| 23 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

I’m just going to do a quick update tonight covering the basics.

We’re continuing to see Trump and his natsec team’s new new position on Ukraine be articulated. This time by the Vice President of a Thousand Names:

JD Vance: “We’re done with the funding of the Ukraine war business. We want to bring about a peaceful settlement to this thing.”

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— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar.com) August 10, 2025 at 10:13 AM

What about Senator Jubilation T. Cornpone?

Senator Graham believes Ukraine will not expel all Russian forces and Russia will not advance on Kyiv, so a territorial exchange is likely in the end. He also argues that continued arms support for Ukraine is essential to deter Russia with Europe’s strongest army.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:01 AM

Last night I wrote that more betrayal from Trump and his natsec team was coming. And here it is.

German Chancellor Merz:

Ukrainian and European leaders cannot accept the discussion or even deciding on territorial issues between Russia and the United States. I assume the American government sees it the same way.

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— Anton Gerashchenko (@antongerashchenko.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 1:01 PM

Unfortunately, the American government – e.g. Trump and his natsec team – do not see it the same way.

And, as always, hope is not a strategy.

European leaders are seeking to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump before his planned meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska later this week, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 10, citing people familiar with the matter.

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— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) August 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

European leaders are seeking to speak with U.S. President Donald Trump before his planned meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska later this week, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 10, citing people familiar with the matter.

The outreach comes ahead of the Trump-Putin talks scheduled for Aug. 15 and follows a weekend of diplomacy between U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials. Vice President JD Vance met with British Foreign Secretary David Lammy in the U.K. on Aug. 9, and EU ambassadors were briefed on the discussions a day later.

The bloc’s foreign ministers are due to hold a virtual meeting on Aug. 11, according to Bloomberg.

As part of ongoing U.S.-Russia discussions, Putin told special envoy Steve Wikoff during an Aug. 6 meeting that Russia would agree to a full ceasefire if Kyiv withdrew its forces from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, granting Moscow full control of those partly occupied regions as well as Crimea.

President Volodymyr Zelensky strongly rejected on Aug. 9 the idea of ceding any Ukrainian territory to end Russia’s war, with talks on the proposal beginning in the U.K. with U.S., Ukrainian, and EU officials on Aug. 9.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte told ABC’s This Week on Aug. 10 that any agreement would “have to be on the table” in terms of territory, along with security guarantees for Ukraine. He suggested this could mean Kyiv acknowledging the loss of control over certain areas without formally renouncing sovereignty.

Ukraine and its European allies are instead pushing for a ceasefire based on the current front line as a first step toward a broader settlement, combined with continued economic pressure on Moscow. European leaders reiterated over the weekend that “international borders must not be changed by force” and that “the current line of contact should be the starting point of negotiations.”

According to Bloomberg, the potential deal discussed between Washington and Moscow would see Russian forces halt their offensive in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts along existing battle lines. However, it remains unclear whether Moscow would agree to relinquish any occupied territory, including the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is the largest in Europe.

Putin has maintained his war aims, which include Ukraine adopting neutral status, abandoning its NATO aspirations, and accepting the loss of Crimea and four other regions Moscow claims to have annexed in 2022.

This is just delusional thinking from European leaders. Rutte’s remarks are just completely removed from the reality of dealing with Putin. If this is what theyre going with, they are going to be completely unprepared for the outcome of Putin’s meeting with Trump in Alaska. This isn’t going through the motions, this is just being unable to understand the world as it is. If this is the best that Ukraine’s European allies can do, then Ukraine is in even greater jeopardy than could be imagined.

Wonder how long it will take for Americans to realize why russian officials are posting this

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 1:34 AM

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Understand Russia’s Intention to Try to Deceive America – We Will Not Allow This – Address by the President

10 August 2025 – 20:50

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Right now in Zaporizhzhia, our first responders, medics, police officers, and all services are working to help after a strike by Russian bombs. Air-dropped bombs on the city, on residential buildings, on the bus station, on one of the clinics. Unfortunately, there are casualties. Everyone will receive assistance. I thank every employee of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all services for responding promptly and for always saving people’s lives, no matter the circumstances.

Today, along the entire front line, in frontline communities, and in our border towns and villages, the Russians once again continued to take lives. No deadlines, no expectations work on them – they do not want to stop the killings. The only thing they are looking for is a way to kill Ukraine.

We clearly understand the threats. All our partners just as clearly understand the threats. Everyone sees that there has been no real step from Russia toward peace, no action on the ground or in the air that could save lives. That is why sanctions are needed, pressure is needed. Strength is needed – the strength, first and foremost, of the United States, the strength of Europe, the strength of all nations in the world that want peace and stability in international relations. If Russia does not want to stop the war, then its economy must be stopped.

These days, we are speaking almost around the clock with everyone who respects international law. There will be more meetings and contacts. Just today, I spoke with the Prime Minister of Sweden, the President of Kazakhstan, and the President of Azerbaijan. We also spoke with the President of France. There is clear support for our independence, our sovereignty, and the territorial integrity of Ukraine. The war must be ended as soon as possible with a just peace. A just peace is needed. There is clear support for the principle that everything concerning Ukraine must be decided with Ukraine’s participation. Just as it should be for every other independent state. Everyone must be respected. I thank all those who share this position with Ukraine.

We are also preparing with Sweden new steps in the development of our Ukrainian combat aviation – this can be a major project for decades to come.

I would also like to separately highlight our energy cooperation with Azerbaijan – we value it greatly. Today, with President Aliyev, we discussed the recent Russian strikes specifically on those energy facilities that connect Ukraine and Azerbaijan. It is obvious that these are deliberate attacks – not only on these facilities, but also on our cooperation. And it is especially valuable to me that the President of Azerbaijan assured, and this is also Ukraine’s position, that we will continue our cooperation despite any challenges.

Of course, our team is working with the United States – not a single day goes by without communication on how to ensure real peace. We understand Russia’s intention to try to deceive America – we will not allow this. I greatly value the determination with which President Trump is committed to bringing an end to the killings in this war. Every day, many people are giving their lives. But the sole root cause of these killings is Putin’s desire to wage war and manipulate everyone he comes into contact with. We in Ukraine know Russia well – and that is why, in extremely difficult circumstances, Ukrainians have endured more than three years of full-scale war. We will certainly defend our state and our independence. I thank everyone who is helping.

One more thing. Today, there was a report from Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, including on the situation in the Sumy region. We continue to drive Russian forces out of our land. There are much-needed results. I thank every soldier, sergeant, and officer defending Ukraine – our Sumy region, Kharkiv region, our Donetsk region, Luhansk region, our Zaporizhzhia region, our Kherson region. For successful actions in the Sumy region, I would like to particularly commend the 33rd and 225th Separate Assault Regiments, as well as the warriors of the Special Operations Forces. Thank you! For resilience and the destruction of the occupier in the Pokrovsk direction – which remains very important and extremely challenging – I commend the 14th Operational Brigade of the National Guard, the warriors of the 155th Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 1st Assault Regiment, the 2nd Battalion of the 92nd Separate Assault Brigade, and the airmobile battalion of our 79th Brigade. I thank everyone on the frontline, at combat posts and on missions, everyone fighting for us, for Ukraine and our national interests as for themselves. I feel your support. We will certainly defend Ukraine.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

256! ✊️

#Tbilisiprotests
#Georgiaprotests

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— Tamar (Tako) Tolordava (@takotolordava.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:00 PM

The Black Sea:

NATO reconnaissance aircraft activity over the Black Sea in July 2025.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 7:27 AM

Back to Ukraine.

Experts say Russia’s president wants to keep communication open with the US leader, but has no intention of winding down the war at the moment on.ft.com/3JabGQ3

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— Financial Times (@financialtimes.com) August 10, 2025 at 4:55 PM

From The Financial Times:

Alaska, the venue set for Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump’s meeting on Friday, could hardly be more symbolic of the Kremlin’s view of the world.

Unlike Putin’s military seizure of about a fifth of Ukraine, Russia’s 19th-century sale of Alaska to the US under Emperor Alexander II was a peaceful transaction. Still, it serves as a reminder that national borders are not set in stone, and land can be a currency for statecraft.

Neither the battlefield balance nor budget strains are forcing the Russian president to scale back his maximalist territorial ambitions or consider unfavourable peace terms, according to analysts.

His focus instead is on keeping communication open with Trump, lest the US president’s frustrations with Moscow start to carry a cost. “Putin has no incentive to wind down the war right now,” said Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre. “What matters to him is keeping Trump’s attention.”

On that front, Moscow was facing more risk. Trump, who came to office promising to end the war within 24 hours, has voiced irritation with Putin being “very nice” while simultaneously attacking Ukraine and feeding Washington “a lot of bullshit”. For the first time since taking office, Trump has begun enabling more significant transfers of weaponry to Kyiv, and threatening to apply tariffs on India for buying Russian oil.

But this impatient mood shifted almost overnight after US special envoy Steve Witkoff’s visit to Moscow last Wednesday — just two days before Trump’s ceasefire-or-sanctions deadline. Rather than more trouble for the Kremlin, what emerged was Putin’s first invitation to America to meet a US president since he saw George W Bush in 2007.

The Alaska meeting, which came out of it, is the result of both Putin and Trump “backing themselves into a corner,” said Sam Greene, a professor of Russian politics at King’s College London.

Putin, Greene said, was never going to announce the deal on Trump’s timeline, signalling weakness under pressure, and Trump was uneasy about the prospect of imposing sanctions that might ultimately prove ineffective and “appearing weak twice”.

“The fact that Putin is going to the US not as a prisoner, that he’s gone from a subject of frustration to someone welcomed, and that the meeting is happening without Ukrainians and Europeans — all of that is a diplomatic win,” Greene added.

The Trump-Putin meeting without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present — long a prize for the Kremlin — appeared to come without Russia making significant concessions on its core war goals. To Andrei Kozyrev, a former Russian foreign minister, it underlined that the meeting itself would be “a political gain for Putin”, coming “domestically and internationally without cost, unlike for his counterpart”.

For Ukrainian officials, the move to talks represents an attempt by Putin to achieve at least three distinct goals. Alyona Getmanchuk, the newly appointed head of Ukraine’s mission to Nato, said it was to emerge from isolation, avoid new sanctions, and to use Trump’s determination to end the war “in order to solve by diplomatic means the tasks he failed to complete by military means”.

More at the link,

As I wrote last night:

All of this is maskirovka. Putin is attempting, through manipulating Trump and his natsec team, to shift the blame to for not negotiating an end to Russia’s genocidal re-invasion of Ukraine and to create strategic time and space. Strategic time and space that Putin will use to keep new sanctions being placed on Russia, as well as to rebuild his capabilities.

If Russia continues to strike energy facilities linked to Azerbaijan in Ukraine, Baku may consider lifting its ban on supplying weapons to Ukraine from its own stockpiles, Azerbaijan’s Caliber reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:36 PM

1/ Ukrainian forces have carried out 12 precision strikes on Russian railway infrastructure in recent weeks, mainly in the south. These attacks disrupted key junctions and slowed military cargo flows to Crimea, Donbas, and the North Caucasus, Conflict Capital reports.
t.me/conflictcapi…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM

2/ Analysts at Conflict Capital note that Russian forces failed to achieve strategic gains this summer, but several threats remain. The northern front near Kharkiv is stable, with Russian attacks repelled and the enemy focused on holding ground and exhausting Ukrainian units.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM

3/ From Siversk to Pokrovsk, Russia relies on massed artillery and small assault groups. Fighting near Rodynske is key, as Russian forces try to pressure Ukrainian logistics and avoid direct urban combat.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM

4/ In the Kostiantynivka area, Russian troops attempt to cut off Toretsk’s supply routes by attacking from multiple directions and seizing key heights for FPV drone deployment.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM

4/ In the Serebrianske Forest, Russian units increasingly use small infiltration groups to probe weak points, achieving limited advances and threatening rear areas.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM

5/ The southern front remains the most dynamic, with Russia holding defensive lines in Zaporizhzhia but moving reserves near Berdyansk and Mariupol. In Kherson, both sides fight for control of river islands and crossing points.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM

6/ Analysts emphasize that the situation remains tense across all sectors, with Russia seeking any opportunity for a breakthrough to exploit Ukrainian defenses.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 11:19 AM

The second skeet 4 should be 5, 5 should be 6, and 6 should be 7. Just go with it.

Soldiers of the 79th Air Assault Brigade shot down 19 Russian drones, including 9 Zala, 7 Supercam, 2 Orlan, and a Lancet, with an estimated total value of about $1,840,000 according to Ukrainian military assessments.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:35 AM

Ukrainian fighters from the Black Raven unit of the 93rd Mechanized Brigade destroyed a Russian BM-21 Grad that was preparing to strike Ukrainian positions.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 7:36 AM

Zaporizhzhia:

Moment of the Russian strike on a bus station in Zaporizhzhia today. Huge city, broad daylight!

At least 19 people were injured in the attack.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:28 PM

Additional images show the bus station in Zaporizhzhia after it was struck by Russian forces.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:15 PM

Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi, Kharkiv Oblast:

Russian forces shelled the settlement of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi in Kharkiv region, murdering a 62-year-old man and injured two women.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:54 AM

Kharkiv Oblast:

Russia injured seven people in Kharkiv region in air attacks over the past 24 hours—including one man whose foot was torn off.

Even if it is not in the news, Russian terror never stops.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 8:50 AM

Odesa:

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:21 AM

A mine exploded near the shore in Zatoka, Odesa region, with reports of one or two fatalities, according to local media.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 5:34 AM

The Pokrovsk front:

Fields covered with fiber optics on the Pokrovsk front.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 3:54 PM

Oleshky, Kherson Oblast:

A precise air strike was carried out on an underground Russian command post in the Oleshky area of the Kherson region. It is claimed that about 25 Russian military were killed and another 11 were injured. (46.6316674, 32.7707389)

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:45 AM

Komi, Russia:

Territory of Lukoil oil refinery, 1700km from the frontline was targeted. It has the capacity of 4,2mln tons per year.

Russians published a video which shows damage to one of the fuel tanks. (63.5778254, 53.7327713). Red arrow shows direction of the operator on the video in the attached post.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 9:07 AM

/2. Drone of unknown model was spotted in the Komi region of Russia prior to the attack.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 8:51 AM

HUR drones struck an oil refinery in Russia’s Komi Republic, more than 2,000 kilometers from Ukraine’s border, Suspilne sources report. According to HUR, the refinery supplied fuel to the Russian army. A fuel storage tank was hit, causing a spill, and a gas and condensate processing unit was damaged

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 12:51 PM

Saratov, Russia:

By this moment territory of the Saratov oil refinery is still on fire after tonight’s attack

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 6:04 AM

Ukraine has no luxury of never-ending talking: our defence forces keep hammering russia’s oil industry with hellish, precision sanctions. This time it’s Saratov.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:33 AM

Today’s updates into the list of hellish oil sanctions.
Author: Kostiantyn Hoholenko.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 3:04 PM

Yelebuga, Republic of Tatarstan, Russia:

Satellite images confirmed at least two strikes on the Deng Xiaoping logistics terminal in Yelabuga, where Russian drones were stored, NV reports. The facility, a major Russian-Chinese project near the Alabuga SEZ, was officially used for storing attack UAVs, according to the SBU.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 10:16 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

🦊 Go eat, my dear. Here’s a sandwich. I’ll put it down for you, and you take it. Come back again, I have more.
AFU is trust! 💙💛

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) August 10, 2025 at 2:41 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,263: Ripple EffectsPost + Comments (23)

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