With 93% reporting in PA 18 Conor Lamb has a 928 vote lead over Rick Saccone. Here’s some thoughts from Harry Enten of 538:
Things that are true now that'll be true after PA-18: The president has a 40% approval rating. Not good. The president's party is down by around 10 points on the generic. Not good. The average swing in federal special elections has been 16 pts against the prez's party. Not good.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 13, 2018
The final polling average had Lamb +2.5. Margin of error on special election polling averages is +/- 10 points. So this will fall within that…
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 14, 2018
To put this in perspective, the Dem swing from the partisan lean (using the margin) in the 8 special elections so far including this one is +17. In 2006, it was +15 for comparison.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) March 14, 2018
Open thread!