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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

“More of this”, i said to the dog.

Usually wrong but never in doubt

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Let’s not be the monsters we hate.

A thin legal pretext to veneer over their personal religious and political desires

You can’t love your country only when you win.

We are aware of all internet traditions.

After roe, women are no longer free.

Schmidt just says fuck it, opens a tea shop.

Republicans do not pay their debts.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

Let there be snark.

Insiders who complain to politico: please report to the white house office of shut the fuck up.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

Republicans seem to think life begins at the candlelight dinner the night before.

Fuck these fucking interesting times.

Not all heroes wear capes.

“But what about the lurkers?”

Accountability, motherfuckers.

The republican caucus is already covering themselves with something, and it’s not glory.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

Fuck the extremist election deniers. What’s money for if not for keeping them out of office?

This fight is for everything.

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Banned Book Drops (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker|  January 27, 20233:35 pm| 64 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

Tampa Bay Times columnist Stephanie Hayes wrote a terrific column about Florida’s thought police banning Toni Morrison’s “The Bluest Eye.” Here’s a link, but it’s probably behind a paywall. Excerpt below:

“The Bluest Eye,” published in 1970, is the latest casualty in a wave of American anti-intellectualism hitting particularly hard in Florida. Supporters of such measures would call it a win against wokeness, increasingly Batman villain code for anything that attempts to recognize the experience of people who aren’t straight and white.

On Tuesday — in the middle of Florida’s Literacy Week, no less — district officials announced they were “erring on the side of caution” due to the novel’s sexual content and dark themes. This is because one parent at Palm Harbor University High complained. For the record, it’s not like any minors were Clockwork Oranged into reading it. Parents of students in that advanced literature class were informed about the content and offered an alternate book.

But this “removal” isn’t about one novel, is it? This is about sowing mistrust in educators, destabilizing the public school system and pushing parents toward privatization. In perhaps the greatest irony, it’s about erasing uncomfortable truths in favor of a sanguine and simplified view of reality.

Yep. As I’ve shared here perhaps too often, I feel sick and disgusted and beaten-down by what’s happening around me in a state that I love despite its many flaws, and there’s a danger in that. Hayes recognizes the hazard, noting that the “challenge now is to avoid shutting down, numbing out and looking away.”

Her solution? She’s buying copies of “The Bluest Eye” and leaving them in “Little Free Library” book boxes in Pinellas County, where the school district just banned the book. Hayes, who feels a personal connection to Morrison because they grew up in the same Ohio town, looks to the Nobel Prize winner for inspiration and gives Morrison the last word in this quote from “The Bluest Eye:”

“Anger is better. There is a sense of being in anger. A reality and presence. An awareness of worth. It is a lovely surging.”

Better anger than despair. Better action than resignation. I’m not sure my little town has anything as civilized as free book boxes, but maybe it’s time to start one? Advice welcome!*

Open thread.

*I live so far in the boonies that a free library on my property would be pointless — many days the US mail truck is the only vehicle that passes our gate. But maybe I can liaise with some local Democrats who live in town and who might be willing to host the book box in their yard? Even though it might attract unwelcome attention? I don’t know how this works, but I do recall reading about others here with little libraries, so please share strategies and tactics if you’re so inclined! 

Banned Book Drops (Open Thread)Post + Comments (64)

Is more choice better on the ACA marketplaces?

by David Anderson|  January 27, 202310:01 am| 9 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

Earlier this week, AHIP had a tweet stating that more growth on the ACA marketplaces was related to more choices.  I’m not sure.

The story that more insurers and more choice leads to more enrollment likely goes something like this:

People have varying preferences.  They will buy a plan if there is an option on the option surface that is pretty close to their optimal point.  If there is not an option near their optimal point of price, quality, brand, cost-sharing,  network etc then they won’t buy.  More insurers increases the number of points occupied on any choice surface which decreases the average distance from any person’s preference point to their first option.  This reduced distance between each individual’s optimal point and the first available option leads  to more people buying plans than if there were fewer insurers offering fewer options.

And that make sense.

Except that adding more insurers to a county changes the prices subsidized buyers see. We need to remember that subsidized buyers are premium spread sensitive and not premium level sensitive.   More insurers in a given market tends to compress the premium spread.  Compressed premium spreads means that all plans that are priced below the benchmark second cheapest silver plan are relatively more expensive.

Below is a dot plot of premium spreads by county on Healthcare.gov from 2014-2021 for the cheapest silver relative to the benchmark silver plan for a single 40 year old non-smoker stratified by the number of insurers in the county.

 

Premium spread of cheapest silver relative to benchmark for a single 40 year old non-smoker on Healthcare.gov 2014-2021 by county and # of insurers in each county-year

Generally, as more insurers are in a county, the discounts for below benchmark plans for subsidized buyers shrink!

This is not a hard and fast rule but it is a trend.  I would want to add state and year effects to a model, but in general, subsidized prices go up as competition increases.  That is weird.

And if we think that marginal enrollees are mostly buying on price, more competition likely leads to one of the most salient features (premium) to become less attractive.

So this is a good empirical question — does adding insurers lead to more enrollment?  Or more simply, does pricing dominate choice space density for subsidized and price sensitive buyers?

Is more choice better on the ACA marketplaces?Post + Comments (9)

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Busy, Busy, Busy

by Anne Laurie|  January 27, 20239:04 am| 269 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, President Biden, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Venality, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You

U.S. President Joe Biden pays tribute to the victims of mass shootings in California at a Lunar New Year event at the White House pic.twitter.com/2xOtrFfXWj

— Reuters (@Reuters) January 27, 2023

The Inflation Reduction Act is making progress and helping working families — but the House GOP is already working to undo it. https://t.co/OppI7En7yJ

— Sanford Bishop (@Bishop4Congress) January 24, 2023

show full post on front page

Remember when plenty of Wall Street analysts were saying that by the end of the year we’d be in a recession?

It turns out they were wrong.

Instead, we ended the year with one of the strongest economic recoveries in America history.

— President Biden (@POTUS) January 26, 2023

U.S. President Joe Biden cast Republicans as representing the party of 'chaos and catastrophe' and sharply criticized their refusal to approve an increase in the nation's debt ceiling unless they get a deal on spending cuts https://t.co/1Pz7kqWx9a pic.twitter.com/VX0AWDPagw

— Reuters (@Reuters) January 27, 2023

Yes, there are problems — inflation is still far too high and poverty, while it dipped during the crisis b/c of gov't aid, is also still too high.

But to recover all jobs and output in basically 2 years is remarkable.

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) January 26, 2023

VA permanently housed more than 40,000 homeless Veterans in 2022, providing them with the safe, stable homes that they deserve.https://t.co/1gYSY7GzIt pic.twitter.com/yBmpl3VQve

— Secretary Denis McDonough (@SecVetAffairs) January 26, 2023

More news: The White House today announced significant new actions to protect tenants and make renting more affordable

For months, tenant leaders, housing experts & legal organizations have pushed the Biden admin to do more to keep people in their homeshttps://t.co/3ykzvJhOML

— Rachel Leah Siegel (@rachsieg) January 25, 2023

Walker Bragman, who spent the pandemic sheltered at his parents’ guest house in the Hamptons: But what has Biden done for meeee?

? ???????? ???????? ?????? ???? ??-?????????? ?????? ?????? ???????????? ?????????? ?????? ?????? ?????????????????? https://t.co/RREywPLKqi

— William B. Fuckley (@opinonhaver) January 25, 2023

Actually pisses me off a fair amount, because we showed that poverty was a policy choice! Left position should have been to make permanent in some form, not to ignore it because it didn’t reach white collar people who didn’t lose their job.

— William B. Fuckley (@opinonhaver) January 25, 2023

Amen. Got laid off myself and helped a bunch of elderly/English as a second language coworkers get UI that for many was more than their paycheck while my college buddies screamed on social media about the government doing nothing.

— Egg-theow (@EggTheow) January 25, 2023

TGIFriday Morning Open Thread: Busy, Busy, BusyPost + Comments (269)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27

by Anne Laurie|  January 27, 20237:46 am| 66 Comments

This post is in: COVID-19 Coronavirus, Foreign Affairs

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 14

(link)

Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday unanimously voted in favor of using the same coronavirus strain for the initial COVID-19 vaccine doses and the boosters, to simplify the vaccination regimen in the United States. https://t.co/Hrxq2VlTpd

— Reuters Health (@Reuters_Health) January 27, 2023

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True numbers of #COVID19 cases in USA are GROSSLY understated due to home testing — perhaps by 80%https://t.co/0CNMo9yVQi

— Laurie Garrett (@Laurie_Garrett) January 26, 2023

Good to see: the US has passed through its peak of the XBB.1.5 wave with a >30% reduction of hospitalizations in the past 2 weekshttps://t.co/OYKQV32gvz
This reflects a high level of infection and vaccine-induced immunity relative to a troublesome variant pic.twitter.com/j21ful3M9i

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 25, 2023

======

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27
(link)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 1
(link)

Trust me, older people are massively dying in China, especially in rural areas. Nobody knows how this most populous country and world's second largest economy is really doing, not even that guy in Beijing, because nobody dares to tell him the truth.https://t.co/Yg7WNNVqQD

— Yaqiu Wang 王亚秋 (@Yaqiu) January 25, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 2
(link)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 3
(link)

North Korea, back in pandemic news…
COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 4
(link)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 5
(link)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 6
(link)

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 7
(link)

SARS-CoV-2 variant update for the United Kingdom:

XBB.1.5 "Kraken" lineage (9%) is rising rapidly, challenging the incumbents CH.1.1 "Orthrus" (20%) and BQ.1.1 "Cerebrus" (16%).

Growth predicts XBB.1.5 taking over in late Jan. Faster in Scotland.https://t.co/jgbM0TG87f pic.twitter.com/eSpYB1b3EF

— Mike Honey (@Mike_Honey_) January 25, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 8
(link)

======

CDC: Bivalent #Covid vaccination stops illness caused by the Kraken variant, XBB.1.5. Both Pfizer & Moderna produce bivalent Covid booster vaccines. Pfizer lab data show better antibody neutralization of the latest variants after the bivalent shot https://t.co/DZEGsWCPZ5

— delthia ricks 🔬 (@DelthiaRicks) January 26, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 9
(link)

A major study finds that having COVID-19 makes you much likelier to suffer over twenty different heart conditions, including heart failure and strokes.

“It doesn’t matter if you are young or old, diabetic or not, obese or not, if you smoked, or didn’t.” https://t.co/5eAF4ym2WH

— Shailja Patel (@shailjapatel) January 24, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 10
(link)

Real airborne mitigation guidance from an engineering org in a layperson-friendly format, nicely done👍🏻

Via @OhCasavant https://t.co/IG2Q2YQK90

— Naomi Wu 机械妖姬 (@RealSexyCyborg) January 26, 2023


From the .pdf:
COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 11
(link)

======

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 12
(link)

Vaccination with booster was associated with nearly half the frequency of #LongCovid compared with unvaccinated or 2-shots, without a booster pic.twitter.com/9TLe76NNKJ

— Eric Topol (@EricTopol) January 26, 2023

Some people are conspiracy junkies…
COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27 13
(link)

… while others, like Emerald Robinson, are grifters.

Antivaxxers are convinced Damar Hamlin is being hidden away by Pfizer, and most believe recent public appearances by him are actually a body double.

They're demanding he personally reassure them with a video that he's not being played by an actor.

I'm serious, by the way. pic.twitter.com/QnNxgzPGjw

— Ben Collins (@oneunderscore__) January 25, 2023

You probably know everything in the argument below, but remember: Sharing is caring!

On conspiracy theories pic.twitter.com/iF6IWVlE8h

— ‏ًً (@politicalplayer) January 25, 2023

COVID-19 Coronavirus Updates: Thursday / Friday, Jan. 26-27Post + Comments (66)

On The Road – Steve from Mendocino – French Basque Country #7

by WaterGirl|  January 27, 20235:00 am| 21 Comments

This post is in: French Basque Country, On The Road, Photo Blogging

Steve from Mendocino

Having wound up my chronicle of time with Anee-Marie’s family in the Basque country, I find myself with a few leftover images of that and nearby areas.  I’m happy that many of you found this story entertaining.

On The Road - Steve from Mendocino - French Basque Country #7 9

Another Basque church with the three crosses up top.

On The Road – Steve from Mendocino – French Basque Country #7Post + Comments (21)

Respite Open Thread: *Legendary* Bucket-List Outing

by Anne Laurie|  January 26, 20238:52 pm| 108 Comments

This post is in: Something Good Open Thread

*Legendary* Bucket-List Outing - STOCKPILE

By Ethan Doyle White at English Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=30344800

 

It was six years ago, and my mate, Pink, had just been told he was going to die. He accepted the news with a grace I can only marvel at, but he said he’d a list of things he’d still like to do.

We sat in a pub one night and read it over. Eight things? Four months? Ok. Deal.

🧵

— Electra Rhodes – writes a bit/archaeologises a bit (@electra_rhodes) January 25, 2023


Can’t figure out where this came to my attention, but I’m sure no truths were harmed in its production…

Don’t get me wrong, he’d been pissed when he found out. Routine check up. Bit of a cough. Shadow on an X-ray. Bad. His wife had just had an all clear and it seemed particularly cruel.

He told us when we were on a dig, heads in a trench, bums in the air. Dignified? Not.

At that point he’d had a few weeks to get used to the news. And what he wanted to do. Never mind us wailing & gnashing our teeth. (Yeah, yeah. Very dramatic. Over it? Good.)

He had a plan. A great plan.

Mind that bit of pot & that jawbone. He said. I’ll tell you, over a pint.

Most of his list was easy – just things he’d never got round to – steer a boat on the Thames, visit a particular collection, see a fancy show – a few seemed harder – publish an essay, trespass, do a gig – and 2 seemed impossible – rough camp at a longbarrow, hide out in a museum…

Six weeks in & we stayed overnight in a museum. Don’t ask which one, we pinky (get it?) swore we’d never tell. Not one I used to work in & no artefacts were harmed…

Pink wasn’t doing so well. But he was still determined. Longbarrow. Camp. Just one night. Pleeeease.

Tony and I did a spot of reconnaissance and schlepped between different sites in Wiltshire and Berks. Private land. Private land. Ancient monument. Shit. Pink’s wife phoned. Maybe just an afternoon trip, pals? I think a night might be too much. Pink though? Such a stubborn git.

What do you do when your friend says one thing, his wife says another, and you can hear death knocking at the outside door?

I dunno about you.

We went to Wayland’s Smithy.

show full post on front page

We’d all been there plenty of times before. And walked the Ridgeway, & argued about the White Horse, cut in the hill. And discussed why hill forts are called hill forts at all.

It was a good afternoon. We ate our sandwiches, drank a huge flask of tea. Walked back to the car.

It wouldn’t start.

There was a bit of tarp in the car, plus a couple of picnic blankets & the portable wood stove Jan’s dad had just fixed for me. (There’d been a small accident on a field trip, best not to ask.) Tony had got half the weekly shop in the boot – it was just meant to be a quick trip.

Back at Wayland’s Smithy we set up camp in the corner, far away from the stones. The sun slowly sank, the blue sky faded to dusk & then dark, the temperature cooled.

It was just the 4 of us, eating Tony’s bacon & eggs, feeding cardboard & bits of punk & debris into the rocket stove to keep us warm. We drank more tea & shared a packet of biscuits. (Chocolate hobnobs. The best of the best.) In the quiet dark Pink said he could hear singing.

It was a single voice, singing a folk song, full of mighty deeds & beer (they’re always full of mighty deeds & beer, or dragons & beer) & eventually, its owner arrived at the site. Big bloke, big voice, big pack he dropped beside us. He was thrilled to see us. Or maybe the grub.

It was one of those nights you talk about, any time you meet. Singing. Stories. Long periods of silence, staring at the stars. Pink told the guy about his list, the guy told Pink a story about finding yourself.

He lost the thread. We did too. It didn’t matter. Sometimes you do.

Not surprisingly, given the location, one of the stories was about Wayland and the horse he’d shod to take him across the sky. Did we know that version? The stranger asked. Yes, No, Maybe, we chorused, tell us anyway!

At some point we all fell asleep. Or woke. Or slept again. I heard singing and thought it might be the moon or the stars, crooning a lullaby.

In the morning the stranger had gone, with his big pack. He’d left us each a gift, wrapped in a burdock leaf, done up with a bit of string. Mine was a hook made of bone, Tony had a skail knife made of flint, Jan had a scarf made of nettle yarn. Pink had four tiny iron horseshoes.

One for each of us. Pink said. Grinning.

On the way to the car I found someone had covered a ‘strictly no camping’ sign with a bin bag. I glared, but Pink swore it wasn’t him.

Back at the car, he produced a spark plug. Ahh, he said, patting the bonnet. This one was me.

A few weeks later, Pink’s wife, Tess, phoned. And even though I knew it was coming, I still wept.

His funeral was full of people who laughed as they cried. Angry tears and sorrow, all mixed together. For us, as well as Pink.

Tess had put the shoes on his coffin. Pink was sure you’d met Wayland himself that night, & that they meant he & the horse would come, to take him home, when the time came.

Pink had died holding them. 1 for each of us.

I thought of him, then. A man with a plan. To say goodbye.

Respite Open Thread: *Legendary* Bucket-List OutingPost + Comments (108)

War for Ukraine Day 336: The Russians Renew Their Bombardment of Ukraine

by Adam L Silverman|  January 26, 20237:10 pm| 63 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

As seems to be the case every time Ukraine regains occupied ground or the allies and partners supporting Ukraine increase their support, Russia has once again renewed its bombardment of civilian targets today.

Terrorist state🇷🇺 launched a massive missile strike on 🇺🇦.
The enemy fired 55 air & sea-based missiles (Kh-101/555, Kh-47 Kinzhal, Kalibr, Kh-59).
47 cruise missiles were shot down by the assets of 🇺🇦Air Defence, 20 of them in the area of Kyiv.
We can't be broken! pic.twitter.com/UogcRyfbTl

— Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (@CinC_AFU) January 26, 2023

11 people were killed and 11 wounded in today's Russian missile strikes on Ukraine, according to the state emergency service. More than ten Ukrainian regions were affected by the attacks

— Olga Tokariuk (@olgatokariuk) January 26, 2023

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:

show full post on front page

Good health to you, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, we withstood another massive missile strike by terrorists.

A strike that fully confirms everything we have been talking about with our partners both yesterday and since the beginning of our diplomatic marathon.

This evil, this Russian aggression can and should be stopped only with adequate weapons. The terrorist state will not understand anything else.

Weapons on the battlefield. Weapons that protect our skies.

New sanctions against Russia, i.e. political and economic weapons. And legal weapons – we need to work even harder to establish a tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine and to compensate for all the damage caused by this war at the expense of Russian assets.

Every Russian missile against our cities, every Iranian drone used by terrorists is an argument why we need more weapons. Only weapons neutralize terrorists.

And I am grateful to everyone in the world who is really fighting terror together with us.

Who is speeding up the supply of necessary defense equipment to Ukraine and who is willing to increase sanctions pressure on the terrorist state.

In particular, we are expanding our tank coalition – there is a corresponding decision of Canada, and I am grateful for it. We already have 12 countries in our tank coalition.

Today, thanks to the air defense systems provided to Ukraine and the professionalism of our warriors, we managed to shoot down most of the Russian missiles and Shaheds.

These are at least hundreds of lives saved and dozens of infrastructure facilities preserved.

And I thank our Air Forces, each and every one who last night, this morning and afternoon ensured the defense of Ukraine against terrorists’ missiles and drones.

I would like to especially praise the warriors of the 96th Kyiv, 160th Odesa and 208th Kherson anti-aircraft missile brigades.

Unfortunately, it is difficult to provide 100% protection with air defense alone. Especially when terrorists use ballistic missiles.

Today there were missile hits. Unfortunately, there are wounded and dead. My condolences to all the families and friends…

This Russian terror requires asymmetrical responses. We need a new movement of our forces at the front. We need to ensure the defeat of the terrorists’ ground forces.

Whatever the Russian occupiers are planning, our preparation must be stronger.

We talk about it with our partners. And we discuss it at the meetings of the Staff.

Today was just such a meeting.

Details about the situation in the Donetsk region. Bakhmut, Vuhledar and the battle for Donbas in general.

I am grateful to all our units who demonstrate the resilience Ukraine needs, exhausting the occupier and destroying it.

The more Russia loses in this battle for Donbas, the less its overall potential will be.

At the meeting of the Staff we also discussed in detail what we should prepare for in the coming months. We know what the occupiers are planning. We are countering it.

This applies both to the supply of weapons and ammunition and to the overall strengthening of our defense forces.

Today, I held operational meetings on the situation in the energy sector – on existing deficits and recovery from terrorist attacks. Repair crews are working in all locations of the hits.

As of now, there are electricity supply restrictions in most of our regions. The most difficult situation is in Odesa, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Sumy and Poltava regions.

Power engineers, utility workers and everyone involved in stabilizing the energy system will do everything necessary to restore generation and technical supply capacity. I thank everyone involved in this work.

I also thank everyone in the world who has helped and is helping Ukraine with energy equipment. To every country, every company and every person – to those millions of our friends who, through United24 or other support tools, prove that Russian terror must lose.

And one more thing.

Unfortunately, I have to repeat this for those who did not hear it well.

Any trip abroad by government officials, MPs, representatives of local authorities and other persons authorized to perform the functions of the state or local self-government, any of their trips abroad must comply with the relevant decision of the National Security and Defense Council, which you have all seen.

There will be no other trips abroad by officials or MPs in wartime.

I think this is fair.

I thank everyone who is fighting for Ukraine! I thank everyone who is working for our country and society!

Eternal memory to everyone whose life was taken by Russian terrorists!

Russia will be held accountable for terror.

Glory to Ukraine!

Here is former NAVDEVGRU Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer’s most recent assessments of the situations in Soledar and Bakhmut:

SOLEDAR AXIS /2200 UTC 26 JAN/ RU Wagner PMC units have consolidated control of Soledar and are now attempting to cut the T-05-13 HWY north of Bakhmut. It is assessed that RU units have reached the banks of the Bakhmutse River north and south of Blahodatne. pic.twitter.com/r4IONO0wHm

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 26, 2023

BAKHMUT AXIS /1330 UTC 26 JAN/ RU forces continue attempts to cut Bakhmut’s Lines of Communications and Supply (LOCS). RU forces at Soledar have reached positions near the T-05-13 HWY, other RU units have advanced northwest of Myika Pond in an attempt to sever the vital H-32 HWY pic.twitter.com/YbDOdslC7T

— Chuck Pfarrer | Indications & Warnings | (@ChuckPfarrer) January 26, 2023

Today, Ukraine’s citizens are yet again forced to start the day by finding shelter from Russia’s missiles as air raid sirens sound across the country. #StandWithUkraine https://t.co/53MHT1bpFY pic.twitter.com/pnGLE3qffM

— Michael Carpenter, U.S. Ambassador to the OSCE (@USAmbOSCE) January 26, 2023

Kyiv:

Conference “Children and the war” in the bomb shelter in Kyiv. Doctors, psychologists are speaking now about children and their traumas. Outside- sounds of explosions #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/zShSCsZ3Sx

— Kristina Berdynskykh (@berdynskykh_k) January 26, 2023

The conference “Children and the war” in the bomb shelter in Kyiv. National Anthem of Ukraine #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/KK2nzEfPwv

— Kristina Berdynskykh (@berdynskykh_k) January 26, 2023

Kherson, details from Ukrinform:

Russian invaders shelled the Kherson region 36 times on January 25, killing two civilians and wounding five others.

That’s according to the Kherson Regional Military Administration, Ukrinform reports.

“In the past 24 hours, the Russian army killed two civilians. Five people were injured,” the report said.

According to the report, the Russian invaders used artillery, MLRS, mortars, and tanks. They also launched a missile attack against the region.

The Russian army shelled the city of Kherson five times, targeting residential areas of the city. Enemy projectiles hit the houses of Kherson residents.

Earlier reports said that Russian forces had hit the Turkish-owned ship Tuzla at the port of Kherson.

Tanks! Politico has the details:

The U.S. is planning to send Kyiv the Abrams main battle tank in its more advanced M1A2 configuration, rather than the older A1 version that the military has in storage, according to three people with knowledge of the deliberations.

But the 31 tanks slated for Ukraine will not include the secret armor mix that makes the Army’s newest version so lethal, said the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive conversations.

The A2 version has more sophisticated optics and controls than the older A1 version, which the Army intends to retire in the next few years. Outwardly similar to the A1, the A2 has a redesigned commander’s weapon station with improved optics for targeting, and an independent thermal viewer that allows the commander to independently scan for targets in all weather and battlefield conditions.

The most radical changes are on the inside, which has been redesigned to take advantage of new technology. The control mechanisms are digitized, most notably a new inter-vehicle information system that allows vehicles to exchange information continuously and automatically. Using the new technology, commanders can rapidly track the location of friendly vehicles, identify enemy positions and process artillery requests.

But federal policy forbids the export of Abrams with classified armor packages used by the U.S. military, which includes depleted uranium, according to a fourth person with knowledge of the policy. The U.S. strips the vehicles of this secret armor “recipe” before selling them to other countries. There are other armor packages the U.S. can provide for foreign military sales customers.

Coming. Soon.
Be. Fearful. Enemy. pic.twitter.com/cyEf7UkfQA

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 26, 2023

Norway:

#Norway will provide Ukrainian soldiers with professional training as medical specialists, junior officers and snipers. The training will take place in Norway this spring and will continue throughout 2023. Norway will continue to support #Ukraine as long as necessary. pic.twitter.com/B6OHaSax4X

— Norwegian Armed Forces | Forsvaret (@Forsvaret_no) January 26, 2023

The US Departments of State and Treasury have designated Wagner PMC a transnational criminal organization and leveled added sanctions on Prigozhin. Here’s the transcript of Secretary Blinken’s remarks:

Countering the Wagner Group and Degrading Russia’s War Efforts in Ukraine
PRESS STATEMENT

ANTONY J. BLINKEN, SECRETARY OF STATE

JANUARY 26, 2023

The United States is sanctioning individuals and entities linked to Russia’s para-military Wagner Group and its head, Yevgeniy Prigozhin – including its key infrastructure and associated front companies, its battlefield operations in Ukraine, producers of Russia’s weapons, and those administering Russia-occupied areas of Ukraine. This action supports our goal to degrade Moscow’s capacity to wage war against Ukraine, to promote accountability for those responsible for Russia’s war of aggression and associated abuses, and to place further pressure on Russia’s defense sector.

In November 2022, the Department of State designated the Wagner Group pursuant to E.O. 14024 for operating in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian economy. It was previously designated by OFAC in June 2017 under E.O. 13660 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, directly or indirectly, actions or policies that threaten the peace, security, stability, sovereignty, or territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Today, the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is designating the Wagner Group as a significant transnational criminal organization pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 13581, as amended by E.O. 13863. The Wagner Group’s pattern of serious criminal behavior includes violent harassment of journalists, aid workers, and members of minority groups and harassment, obstruction, and intimidation of UN peacekeepers in the Central African Republic (CAR), as well as rape and killings in Mali.

Concurrently, OFAC is designating Wagner pursuant to E.O. 13667 for being responsible for or complicit in, or having engaged in, the targeting of women, children, or any civilians through the commission of acts of violence, or abduction, forced displacement, or attacks on schools, hospitals, religious sites, or locations where civilians are seeking refuge, or through conduct that would constitute a serious abuse or violation of human rights or a violation of international humanitarian law in relation to CAR.

Further, the Department of State is designating today five entities and one individual linked to the Wagner Group and Prigozhin. These designations target a range of Wagner’s key infrastructure – including an aviation firm used by Wagner, a Wagner propaganda organization, and Wagner front companies. OFAC is also designating persons and entities based in CAR, the People’s Republic of China, Luxembourg, and the United Arab Emirates that are connected to Wagner’s operations around the world.

The Department is also designating under E.O. 14024 three individuals for their roles as heads of the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service, which has been reported to facilitate the recruitment of Russian prisoners into the Wagner Group. The Department is also designating a Deputy Prime Minister who also serves as the Minister of Industry and Trade and the Chairman of the Election Commission of the Rostov Region.

The Department is further designating under E.O. 14024 one individual and four entities associated with Russian Oligarch Vladimir Potanin, who was sanctioned pursuant to E.O. 14024 in December 2022. Similarly, the Department is designating Sergei Adonev, a financier of Russian President Putin, alongside several associated entities and individuals. The Department is also identifying two yachts and one aircraft associated with Adonev as blocked property.

Additionally, the Department is designating under E.O. 14024 Aktsionernoye Obshchestvo Dalnevostochnyy TsentrSudostroyeniya i Sudoremonta (AO DTSSS) alongside eight subsidiaries. AO DTSSS and its subsidiaries are known for building and servicing Russia’s military, including its Pacific Fleet.

Finally, the Department is announcing steps to impose visa restrictions on 531 members of the Russian military for actions that threaten or violate the sovereignty, territorial integrity, or political independence of Ukraine pursuant to Section 212(a)(3)(C) of the Immigration and Nationality Act.

These actions also advance President Biden’s plan to promote accountability for conflict-related sexual violence, which calls for federal agencies to leverage existing sanctions authorities to pursue its perpetrators.

The United States is steadfast in our resolve against Russia’s aggression and other destabilizing behavior worldwide. Today’s designations will further impede the Kremlin’s ability to arm its war-machine that is engaged in a war of aggression against Ukraine, and which has caused unconscionable death and destruction.

For more information on today’s action, please see the Department of State’s fact sheet, the Department of the Treasury’s press release, and the White House Presidential Memorandum.

In other Wagner news, Reuters published a long form deep dive into Wagner KIAs in Ukraine:

Late last summer, a plot of land on the edge of a small farming community in southern Russia began to fill with scores of newly dug graves of fighters killed in Ukraine. The resting places were adorned with simple wooden crosses and brightly coloured wreaths that bore the insignia of Russia’s Wagner Group – a feared and secretive private army.

There were around 200 graves at the site on the outskirts of Bakinskaya village in Krasnodar region when Reuters visited in late January. The news agency matched the names of at least 39 of the dead here and at three other nearby cemeteries to Russian court records, publicly available databases and social media accounts. Reuters also spoke to family, friends and lawyers of some of the dead.

Many of the men buried at Bakinskaya were convicts who were recruited by Wagner last year after its founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin, promised a pardon if prisoners survived six months at the front, this reporting showed. They included a contract killer, murderers, career criminals and people with alcohol problems.

For months, Wagner has been locked in a bloody battle of attrition to take the towns of Bakhmut and Soledar in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region. Western and Ukrainian officials have said it is using convicts as cannon fodder to overwhelm Ukraine’s defences. Toughening sanctions on Wagner this month, White House national security spokesman John Kirby branded the group “a criminal organisation that is committing widespread atrocities and human rights abuses.” In a short open reply to the U.S. government, Prigozhin asked Kirby to “please clarify what crime was committed” by Wagner.

Videos and photographs of the graves first appeared on social media channels in the Krasnodar region in December. Reuters geolocated these images to the Bakinskaya cemetery and reviewed satellite imagery of the site from Maxar Technologies and Capella Space. Satellite pictures show that the Wagner plot was empty in the summer, had three rows of graves by the end of November and was three-quarters full by early January. Virtually the entire plot was used by Jan. 24.

Local activist Vitaly Votanovsky, who took the first pictures and has documented soldiers killed in Ukraine and buried in Krasnodar region graveyards, told Reuters he observed a truck delivering bodies to the cemetery. He said gravediggers told him the bodies had come from the Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, close to Russia’s border with Donetsk region. When Reuters visited the cemetery in January, fences and security cameras were being installed around the plot and another burial was underway.

Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti published footage in early January of Prigozhin visiting the cemetery, crossing himself and laying flowers on one grave. He told local media that the men buried there had expressed a wish to be laid to rest at a Wagner chapel outside the nearby town of Goryachiy Klyuch, rather than having their bodies returned to relatives. The Bakinskaya plot was provided by the local authorities, he said, after the chapel ran out of space. In 2019, Reuters reported on the existence of a Wagner training camp in the village of Molkino, around 5 miles (9 km) from Bakinskaya.

Of the 39 convicts Reuters identified, 10 had been imprisoned for murder or manslaughter, 24 for robbery and two for grievous bodily harm. Other crimes included manufacturing or dealing in drugs and blackmail. Among the convicts were citizens of Ukraine, Moldova, and the Russian-backed breakaway Georgian region of Abkhazia. Wooden markers on their graves at Bakinskaya and three nearby cemeteries show the men perished between July and December 2022, at the height of the battle for Bakhmut.

One of the youngest, buried at the nearby Martanskaya cemetery, is Vadim Pushnya. He was just 25 years old when he died on Nov. 19. Pushnya was imprisoned in 2020 for burgling garages, a beer shop and a cement factory in his hometown of Goryachiy Klyuch, close to the Wagner chapel. The birthdate on Pushnya’s grave matches the date given on his social media accounts and in court records.

The oldest, Fail Nabiev, was serving one-and-a-half years for burglary in Ivanovo region’s Penal Colony No. 2, 200 miles northeast of Moscow, at least his second such prison spell. He had been convicted in May 2022 by a court in the picturesque tourist town of Suzdal of stealing a string trimmer and a sanding machine valued at a total of 5,500 roubles ($80) from a garage. According to his simple wooden grave marker, emblazoned with an Islamic crescent moon, Nabiev died in October, less than five months after being sentenced. He was 60.

Much, much, much more at the link. Including imagery.

Here’s some imagery from a much larger thread:

Why? It may be because the Wagner chapel is located next to the Psekups River, actively used by households along the stream, @kavkaz_realii reporting suggests. Not good to put a burial ground next to it, local environmentalists warned. https://t.co/qde1qg2pKG 📸:@bloknot_krd pic.twitter.com/cAVpQHbP8d

— Christiaan Triebert (@trbrtc) January 25, 2023

This is an interesting thread:

Putin's remark today about "Ukrainian nationalists" shooting 🇺🇦 soldiers in the back in order to prevent them from defecting captures the challenge Kyiv and the West are facing: a reckless, emotional leader who has boxed himself into a terrible information bubble.
A short 🧵 pic.twitter.com/xNmiFtI0nm

— Alexander Gabuev 陳寒士 (@AlexGabuev) January 25, 2023

2/ When asked today about the situation on the frontline, Putin said that Kyiv has created retreat-blocking detachments (заградотряды) staffed with “🇺🇦 nationalists.” According to Putin, he learned about it a week ago while meeting “our boys” (ребята). 
3/ Of course, there is no credible information about such units in 🇺🇦. Putin knows the practice from 🇷🇺 history, with Stalin’s July 1942 decree №227 being the most famous example. So was Putin consciously lying? We can’t know for sure, but it might be that he believes it. 

4/ Needless to say, Putin’s and the Kremlin’s relationship with truth is…well…complicated, to put it mildly, as my @CarnegieEndow colleague @ChristopherJBor documents in this excellent piece.

Why The Kremlin Lies: Understanding Its Loose Relationship With the TruthRussian leaders have used deception for strategic ends in ways that shed light on their geopolitical goalshttps://carnegieendowment.org/2022/01/06/why-kremlin-lies-understanding-its-loose-relationship-with-truth-pub-86132
5/ But this statement by Putin sounds not as his usual lie, but as information that he’s picked up from someone he trusts. Since 2020 Putin, who had one of the worst work-from-home experiences, has developed a habit of talking to low ranked people directly involved in issues. 
6/ For example, in 2021 he claimed that, according to his conversations with people in the know, many Europeans travel to Russia to get @sputnikvaccine, and then allegedly buy fake @pfizer vaccination certificates in EU because they have more trust in 🇷🇺 vaccines 🤦‍♂️ 
7/ Today’s remark is not dissimilar, and the likely source of Putin’s knowledge are either soldiers from the frontlines in Ukraine, or so called “war correspondents” (in fact, 🇷🇺 military propagandists) whom Putin, distrustful of his generals, meets now on a regular basis. 

8/ In this piece for @CEIP_Politika Andrey Pertsev documents some of these meetings and the impact they have on Putin’s grasp of the war dynamics:

Lord of the Masses: How Russia’s Fringe Elements Went MainstreamPutin’s immersion in the “masses” is becoming dangerous. His vocabulary and behavior are growing increasingly marginal, and the communication style of other high-ranking officials will in turn inevita…https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/88401

9/ This well-researched story by @WSJ (@evangershkovich, @tggrove, @drewhinshaw, @JoeWSJ) provides some additional context on Putin’s isolation and his attempts to work around the chain of command to find out “truth” from “ordinary people” on the ground:

Putin, Isolated and Distrustful, Leans on Handful of Hard-Line AdvisersRussia’s president built a power structure designed to deliver him the information he wants to hear, feeding into his miscalculations on the Ukraine war.https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-russia-ukraine-war-advisers-11671815184
10/ Why is this important? Because some crucial decisions the Kremlin makes about the war may be based on same quality “information” like Putin has shared today. The fact that there is no dispassionate interagency process in 🇷🇺, but an emotional and misinformed leader is chilling 
11/ This reality must feature prominently in quiet discussions that Western supporters of Ukraine have with leaders in Kyiv, as @IgnatiusPost describes in @washingtonpost based on interviews with @SecBlinken and other senior 🇺🇸 officials. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/…
12/ There is a risk of overestimating Putin’s rationality and neglecting his growing detachment from reality when trying to redraw Moscow’s red lines. So far the West managed to do it in a firm, but careful manner avoiding doomsday scenarios. END

That’s enough for today.

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Open thread!

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