Top four House Republicans—Johnson, Scalise, Emmer and Stefanik—say in a new joint statement:
“Any consideration of this Senate bill in its current form is a waste of time. It is DEAD on arrival in the House. We encourage the U.S. Senate to reject it.”
(Emphasis in original)
— Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 5, 2024
This will never make it to a cloture vote. Other than McConnell, Murkowski, Lankford, Graham, and Romney no GOP senator is going to support this.
Mitch McConnell, in the face of growing GOP opposition, pushes for action on national security package, which includes the bipartisan border deal.
“This is a humanitarian and security crisis of historic proportions,” he said. “And Senate Republicans have insisted — not just for…
— Manu Raju (@mkraju) February 5, 2024
Mitch McConnell, in the face of growing GOP opposition, pushes for action on national security package, which includes the bipartisan border deal.
“This is a humanitarian and security crisis of historic proportions,” he said. “And Senate Republicans have insisted — not just for months but for years — that this urgent crisis demanded action.”
“It is now time for Congress to take action on supplemental national security legislation that finally meets those challenges head on,” he said, adding; “Make no mistake, the gauntlet has been thrown and America needs to pick it up.”
And despite McConnell’s statement, he will not force them too. McConnell’s surrender will be out of sheer cowardice so they don’t have to take a tough vote that plays against Trump, the GOP base, and the conservative movement in an election year. We’ll have to see if Lankford actually support his own bill when it comes up for a vote in the Senate or if he pulls a Little Marco.
The House GOP Freedom Caucus is going to even kill the standalone Israel aid bill, which is amazing considering most of those folks are dispensational millennialists.
Freedom Caucus statement opposing Mike Johnson's Israel bill has been retweeted by Chip Roy, Bob Good, Anna Luna, and Eli Crane. Davidson and Massie are publicly opposed. Greene voted no last time. Intel Chairman Mike Turner "has concerns." https://t.co/UMX16kBC2F
— Aaron Fritschner (@Fritschner) February 5, 2024
Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We discussed the enhancement of the veterans’ policy with the Prime Minister; Ukraine needs strength, fresh energy and leadership – address by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
5 February 2024 – 20:19
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is a working day in three of our regions. Dnipropetrovsk region, Kropyvnytskyi region, Cherkasy region. The enhancement of electronic warfare and bolstering of our air defense are among the main issues everywhere. Several important instructions have been given today in this regard.
Dnipro. It was a real pleasure to visit Synergy Lyceum. I thanked the teachers, talked to the students. An important mood – the mood of our future, our state.
Kropyvnytskyi. I held a security meeting on the situation in the region, and the content of the meeting also concerned the situation in other regions and in critical sectors of our economy. I instructed the head of the Ukrainian government to hold a separate meeting on Kirovohrad region – on all its issues. This includes ensuring a high-quality and stable water supply, the operation of uranium mines, and the protection of workers. The report is due in a week. I am grateful to everyone in Kropyvnytskyi and the region who provides assistance in building fortifications in the frontline areas, including Zaporizhzhia. We also discussed the economy: the state should support the restoration of Ukrainian production.
Cherkasy. I took part in a regional meeting of the Congress of Local and Regional Authorities. The main issues, of course, concerned work and development in the region. The meeting was attended by the First Deputy Prime Minister and the Minister of Agrarian Policy. Representatives of regional business also took part in the Congress. This is one of the top priorities of our country today – to provide maximum opportunities for entrepreneurs to work for economic growth and job creation. Last year, we provided the basis for Ukraine’s economic stability. Our sea corridor is working, and more than 20 million tons of cargo have already been exported by sea. We have ensured protection for the energy sector, and this year’s winter and heating season are much more stable than last year. We also have agreements with our partners on long-term support for Ukraine and financial programs that increase our country’s confidence. We ended last year with economic growth of more than 5%. And this year should maintain the momentum. We need transparent, clean, legal relations between state institutions and business. We need business to operate in a clean, legal environment for the sake of preserving and creating as many jobs as possible. The resilience of our economy and the social resilience of Ukraine are elements of our national resilience in the war. I am grateful to everyone who works to ensure that Ukraine can withstand. I am grateful to every entrepreneur, every developer, all our people who have created a new industry in Ukraine, in particular, the drone industry, and who are creating a new powerful Ukrainian electronic warfare system, all our IT specialists who have become defenders. The government will provide maximum support for this effort. I thank everyone who fights for our country and people!
And one more thing.
This morning, we discussed with Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal the enhancement of the policy of heroes – the policy of veterans. Steps that will resolve the existing problems in this area and instill confidence in our people. Steps of a reboot – and not only in this area. With all due respect to Mrs. Minister, this is a matter of management only. Ukraine needs strength, fresh energy and sufficient leadership in every sector. We must win this war. And we have to do the maximum this year, do even more than possible. Ukraine will win.
Glory to our people!
Glory to Ukraine!
And thank you very much, Cherkasy region!
Here’s some analysis of the effects of not continuing to fund Ukraine:
Exactly. The problem is that even if Congress does finally pass Ukraine aid and even if Trump isn't elected in November, the fragility of US commitments to allies is visible now. Hard to see how that's undone (despite European tendency to ignore inconvenient realities). https://t.co/ie2Xw5fTQK
— Ruth Deyermond (@ruth_deyermond) February 5, 2024
Citizens and politicians in both the US and Western/Central Europe need to understand what's at stake. After 80 years of peace, major war is beyond the personal experience of almost everyone in Europe west of Ukraine. It's easy, but v. dangerous, to assume that will be permanent.
— Ruth Deyermond (@ruth_deyermond) February 5, 2024
European security can't continue to depend so heavily on a state with significant domestic political factions that are indifferent or hostile to it.
— Ruth Deyermond (@ruth_deyermond) February 5, 2024
If you’re Taiwanese, and you see the U.S. walk away from Ukraine for its own hard-to-understand domestic political reasons, how likely are you going to resist China’s embrace down the line? Pressure to capitulate may become irresistible if America is understood to be unreliable. https://t.co/BfKZP4Fcnp
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) February 5, 2024
Avdiivka:
This is the cost of the intransigence of the House GOP majority caucus and their allies in the Senate GOP minority:
Russian advances in Avdiivka, which increasingly looks likely to become the first Ukrainian city to fall since the capture of Bakhmut last May, are the direct result of acute ammunition shortage — caused by the U.S. Congress withholding further military aid to Ukraine. https://t.co/1QhzHZBkmV
— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) February 4, 2024
Vorozhba, Sumy Oblast:
Russian troops reportedly used multiple-launch rocket systems to hit Vorozhba at about 5 p.m. local time.
A 40-year-old man was killed while his mother and another resident sustained injuries, according to the Sumy Oblast Military Administration.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 5, 2024
Kherson, Kherson Oblast:
⚡️ Russia launched an attack against the southern city of Kherson around noon on Feb. 5, killing at least four residents and injuring one, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.https://t.co/ZMULYx87qr
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 5, 2024
From The Kyiv Independent:
Russia launched an attack against the southern city of Kherson around noon on Feb. 5, killing at least four residents and injuring one, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said.
Two men, aged 45 and 50, were killed while sitting in a car, said Roman Mrochko, the head of the Kherson military administration.
Other killed victims reportedly included a woman and a 60-year-old man. The injured resident has been hospitalized.
Further details are being determined.
Since Ukrainian forces liberated Kherson and other regional settlements on the western bank of the Dnipro River in November 2022, Russia continues to heavily strike the area, regularly inflicting civilian casualties.
Somewhere in Russian occupied Ukraine:
Our team successfully rescued three families with four #children from an occupied area.
Milana and Zhenia's parents had to close their business after refusing #Russian passports, not complying with Russian business regulations, and declining to pay taxes to Russia. The family,… pic.twitter.com/d1qq1Hjgkn
— Mykola Kuleba (@MykolaKuleba) February 5, 2024
Our team successfully rescued three families with four #children from an occupied area. Milana and Zhenia’s parents had to close their business after refusing #Russian passports, not complying with Russian business regulations, and declining to pay taxes to Russia. The family, including the kids, spent most days in the basement as Russian forces frequently bombarded their village with mortars. To cope with the stress,
Milana often turned up the volume of cartoons to block out the sound of explosions. Angela and her mother lived near a Russian anti-aircraft system. This led to frequent drone attacks over their home, with drones often being shot down or self-destructing nearby. Russian forces blamed these attacks on the #Ukrainian military. The occupation authorities also tried to force Marina,
Angela’s mother, to enroll her in a Russian school three times, but Angela consistently refused. Arsen’s older brother serves in the Ukrainian armed forces, which drew repeated Russian searches to their parents’ home. The first search was particularly harrowing, involving their yard being encircled by military vehicles and a sniper targeting their home. During these searches, Arsen’s father was intensively interrogated and checked for tattoos. Aliona,
Arsen’s mother, planned to flee the occupation twice but feared being turned back at checkpoints due to her elder son’s military service and potentially losing her younger child. Upon learning about @SaveukraineUs, she immediately reached out to our team for help.
It only took a few days for us to sort everything out and assist these families in escaping the occupied area. They are now in a safe place. After they have some time to recover from their ordeal, they plan to start rebuilding their lives.
P.S. We’ve changed the names in this story to protect the individuals’ safety.
Chasiv Yar:
The Russians are again trying to seize the city of Chasiv Yar, which is located immediately west of Bakhmut. The front line approached Chasiv Yar to a distance of 5-7 km. Russian artillery is pounding the city. The 93rd Brigade "Holodny Yar" is holding the line here, challenging… pic.twitter.com/3evhh69GhV
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 5, 2024
The Russians are again trying to seize the city of Chasiv Yar, which is located immediately west of Bakhmut. The front line approached Chasiv Yar to a distance of 5-7 km. Russian artillery is pounding the city. The 93rd Brigade “Holodny Yar” is holding the line here, challenging the enemy in Bohdanivka.
Lysychansk, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:
The Minister of Emergency Situations of the so-called Lugansk People's Republic, Alexey Poteleshchenko, was killed in a strike on February 3 at a restaurant in Lysychansk. https://t.co/YZo73GTvWQ pic.twitter.com/sAqgrbrXay
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 5, 2024
HIMARS strike on hospitality venue "Adriatika" in occupied Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast on 3 February "destroyed dozens of "LPR" officials, including emergency services Minister Aleksey Potelshenko, public prosecutors, policemen, local deputies and defectors".
According to… pic.twitter.com/mUWMfoeB7Q
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) February 5, 2024
HIMARS strike on hospitality venue “Adriatika” in occupied Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast on 3 February “destroyed dozens of “LPR” officials, including emergency services Minister Aleksey Potelshenko, public prosecutors, policemen, local deputies and defectors”.
According to Russian sources, the strike was adjusted by someone present at the venue or nearby, knowing the positions of the attendees.
The information about the strike emerged on Russian news channels with the context that it was a random civilian bakery that was attacked. Official news present this as a strike against civilians, however, leaks from smaller Russian channels reveal that it was a congregation of big local names that was targeted. A birthday party was being held there. However, it is claimed that some civilians, perhaps relatives of the officials, were also casualties of this strike.
There are names of the targets floating about but these are not confirmed. Ukraine did not take responsibility for this strike. Claims that HIMARS missiles were used come from the Russian side.
Krynky, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:
Destruction of the Russian T-62MV mod.2022 and of the Chinese Desertcross-1000-3. Krynky area. https://t.co/JZW7JWNoJs pic.twitter.com/At1lEU63A8
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) February 5, 2024
The Netherlands is, fortunately, standing up:
+6 F-16 jets from the Netherlands for Ukraine.
Minister of Defense of the Netherlands @DefensieMin announced that 🇳🇱 is readying 6 additional F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery to 🇺🇦.
The total number of F-16s to be delivered is 24.We are grateful to our Dutch partners for… pic.twitter.com/zbUnBZuXlE
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) February 5, 2024
+6 F-16 jets from the Netherlands for Ukraine.
Minister of Defense of the Netherlands @DefensieMin announced that 🇳🇱 is readying 6 additional F-16 fighter aircraft for delivery to 🇺🇦.
The total number of F-16s to be delivered is 24.We are grateful to our Dutch partners for their unwavering support. Ukraine highly appreciates your assistance in our fight against russian evil.
🇺🇦🤝🇳🇱 @Defensie
This brings the total number of jets pledged to Ukraine by the Netherlands to 24.
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 5, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has details:
The Netherlands is preparing to send Ukraine an additional six U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets, Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren announced on Feb. 5.
This brings the total number of jets pledged to Ukraine by the Netherlands to 24.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said on Dec. 22 that the Netherlands was preparing the initial batch of 18 F-16s for delivery to Ukraine. There have been no updates on the status of those 18 jets since then.
Ollongren didn’t provide any details on the delivery schedule.
“Ukraine’s aerial superiority is essential for countering Russian aggression,” Ollongren said on X (formerly Twitter).
In a separate announcement, the Dutch Defense Ministry explained that the six additional jets became available for Ukraine since an agreement to sell these planes to the Draken International company was canceled.
The Netherlands has another 18 F-16 aircraft in its arsenal, but it is giving them all for an F-16 training center in Romania. The Dutch Air Force is transitioning to more advanced F-35 fighter jets.
Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have also pledged to provide Ukraine with some of its F-16 jets. The exact number of the jets to be delivered has not yet been announced.
In mid-August 2023, Denmark pledged to give Ukraine 19 F-16s, with the first batch of six aircraft expected to be delivered in spring 2024 and the rest by 2025.
Belgium’s defense minister has promised several jets, which would likely arrive in 2025. According to Norwegian broadcaster NRK, Norway plans to send between five and 10 planes.
Experts told the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine will likely have at least some F-16s operational in late spring or early summer.
Danish and Dutch officials have said the delivery schedule depends on the readiness of Ukraine’s infrastructure and pilots, among other factors.
Ukrainian pilots and technicians continue their training on F-16s in several European countries and the U.S., with the latter expected to complete later in 2024.
The Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisitions, Logistics, and Technology has announced that the US will make its production goals for 155mm shells:
💥 155mm ammo update 💥
Doug Bush, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology confirms that the United States is still on track for 70,000-80,000 155mm shells per month by the end of 2024/start of 2025. This is the max rate, pending appropriation… pic.twitter.com/aMXPEdQYsx
— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) February 5, 2024
Doug Bush, Assistant Secretary of the Army for Acquisition, Logistics, and Technology confirms that the United States is still on track for 70,000-80,000 155mm shells per month by the end of 2024/start of 2025. This is the max rate, pending appropriation of $3.1 billion in additional funding, which is needed to hit 100,000/month by the end of 2025.
🚨BREAKING: Assistant Secretary Bush has blessed us with a graph of projected US 155mm ammunition production. This confirms that they will hit ~36,000/month by the end of Q1. Looks like it will be closer to 70,000/m by year end. https://t.co/rLuT4pwxqQ pic.twitter.com/jxrklUbz0w
— Colby Badhwar 🇨🇦🇬🇧 (@ColbyBadhwar) February 5, 2024
This is good news. It would be great news if there was a Ukraine supplemental allowing the US government to either provide these shells to Ukraine or to provide Ukraine the money as aid so the Ukrainians could then buy them. Until/unless legislation that provides new authorization for and aid to Ukraine passes and signed into laws, these shells are going to be inventoried and then stored somewhere in the US.
Finland:
⚡️ Finnish plant to hike ammunition production fivefold due to Russia's war in Ukraine.https://t.co/JrffftYime
— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 5, 2024
The Kyiv Independent has the details:
The Finnish Nammo Lapua’s ammunition factory will increase production fivefold in 2024 due to Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Finnish public broadcaster YLE reported on Feb. 4, citing the regional director of the factory, Ilkka Heikkila.
The increase in production at the factory in southwestern Finland’s city of Sastamala, which manufactures artillery shell casings, is related to the war in Ukraine, as artillery shells play a key role in Finland’s aid to Ukraine.
Finland is a key partner of Ukraine in the fight against Russian aggression. The Finnish Defense Ministry announced on Dec. 21, 2023, military aid amounting to 106 million euros ($114 million).
According to the ministry, Finland has delivered 1.6 billion euros ($1.72 billion) worth of military aid to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale war.
The Nammo factory has applied to participate in the EU’s ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) project, aiming to increase the EU ammunition and missile production to tackle Ukraine’s shortages.
Hungary:
‼️🚫Orbán’s MPs didn’t show up in Hungary’s parliament to vote on 🇸🇪’s NATO accession – no quorum, no vote.
Orbán promised to @jensstoltenberg there’d be a vote ASAP.
He didn’t keep his word.
Meanwhile, ambassadors of NATO allies 🇺🇸🇳🇱🇸🇰🇳🇴🇩🇰 🇪🇪 were present, @Telexhu reports. pic.twitter.com/82Kl3s2XTd
— Szabolcs Panyi (@panyiszabolcs) February 5, 2024
Now we wait to see if the EU yanks the leash.
Speaking of Brussels:
Family business: A GRU officer in Brussels creates sanctions-dodging shell companies to acquire high-tech machinery used to make advanced missiles & ship it to Russia. Meanwhile his son organizes pro-Russia rallies across Europe. @InsiderEng https://t.co/hXxMNvDTP1
— Mac William Bishop (@MacWBishop) February 5, 2024
From The Insider:
Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer Viktor Labin has set up shop in Brussels, home to the European Commission and NATO headquarters. From his office in a nondescript seven-story building on the outskirts of the Belgian capital, Labin supplies Russian arms manufacturers with European-made coordinate-measuring machines, a high-tech machine tool critical in the production of the Kremlin’s hypersonic Kinzhal missile. The sanctions-busting operation has become a family business. Labin’s younger son runs the Moscow-based middleman that delivers his father’s shipments to end users in Russia, while his elder son pitches in by organizing pro-Kremlin protests across Europe. Despite the Labin family’s unabashed efforts to aid the Russian military-industrial complex, none of them has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list.
In October, The Insider revealed how gaps in the complex web of Western sanctions policies have allowed Russia to continue procuring many of the foreign-made tools and components necessary for the production of its hypersonic Kh-47M2 Kinzhal missile, one of the “wonder weapons” unveiled by Vladimir Putin during an infamous 2018 speech that included computer generated graphics showing Russian warheads flying towards the United States. That particular sanctions-busting scheme relied on loopholes and exceptions that make it possible for European companies to continue doing business with key players in the Kremlin’s military-industrial complex — and to do so without formally violating any regulations. However, not all of the methods Moscow uses to keep its war machine running fall “within the parameters of the law.”
One of the firms mentioned in The Insider’s October report was the Moscow-based Sonatek LLC (ООО «Сонатек»), which imports high precision machine tools from a range of European companies hailing from Italy (Tomelleri Engineering), Germany (MESSTECHNIK GMBH) and the United Kingdom (Aberlink). Russia has yet to establish a suitable import substitution alternative for coordinate-measuring machines, making the Russian military-industrial complex heavily reliant on imported products sourced through Sonatek. Although Russian government defense contracts have been classified in recent years, The Insider has obtained information indicating that Sonatek provided supply and maintenance services to a minimum of 18 Russian defense companies in 2022.
After The Insider’s October report was published, several of the European shipping companies that previously offered their services to Sonatek distanced themselves from the Moscow middleman. Among them was Baltic Shipping Agency LTD, a Poland-based firm that was adamant about its desire not to take part in “illegal activities aimed at circumventing sanctions.” However, the Baltic Shipping Agency did indeed exploit gaps in sanctions legislation in order to deliver coordinate-measuring machines to a key cog in the Russian war machine.
But the scheme discovered by The Insider last year turned out not to have been Sonatek’s only path around Western sanctions. Months before that report was released, a GRU officer named Viktor Labin was already operating on the ground in Brussels, routing European technology to the Russian reseller via a shell company registered in Turkey. Not coincidentally, that GRU officer is the father of Sonatek’s owner and CEO, the 35-year-old Ruslan Labin.
In his correspondence with The Insider, Ruslan Labin did not deny that Sonatek LLC is indeed affiliated with the “18 Russian defense companies” in question, responding that, “These are our customers, we used to supply them with something [and] maybe we’re supplying them now.”
When asked directly whether he and his family members are employees of Russia’s Defense Ministry, he explained, “My father is a businessman, but my brother and I never served in the army” — followed by a smiling emoticon.
Labin’s sons, Roman Labin and the aforementioned Sonatek CEO Ruslan Labin, are listed as directors on Groupe d’Investissement Financier official documents.
Groupe d’Investissement Financier is headquartered at Avenue de la Ferme Rose, 7, a short drive south from the Brussels city center. It was here that The Insider met with Viktor Labin, who claimed that, “after the sanctions” were imposed on Russian companies following the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the elder Labin stopped making deliveries to his son’s firm in Moscow.
However, records show that Groupe d’Investissement Financier has done extensive business with Sonatek, delivering machines and equipment to the Russian firm’s Moscow address. It was only in April 2023 that Viktor Labin’s Belgian entity began processing its deliveries to Sonatek through a Turkish shell company with a similar name: GROUPE D’INVESTISSEMENT FINANCIER OSBORNE. (Turkey has become a popular transshipment point for sanctioned goods being smuggled to Russian end users. As The Insider recently revealed, Taiwanese machine tools have also made their way to Russian arms manufacturers via this route).
Much, much more including images of documents at the link!
Rajan Menon, the Director of the Grand Strategy Program at the Saltzman Institute at Columbia has a detailed assessment of the various other analyses and assessments about how the Ukrainians are doing. It is an excellent reality check. First tweet from the thread, the rest from the Thread Reader App. Pay particular attention to tweet #13!
1/14 Recent analyses of the war in Ukraine, even in top magazines such @ForeignAffairs, contain debatable claims. Below are four examples: 🧵
— Rajan Menon (@rajan_menon_) February 5, 2024
2/ ONE: Among the reasons Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed was the failure to concentrate the bulk of its forces at one point on the southern front rather than dispersing them. But the front is 600 miles long & Russia, with a far bigger army, had massed for attack at various3/ points along it. Had Ukraine not deployed forces to defend those other points, the Russians would have broken through—and kept going.4/ TWO: Russian defensive lines are so formidable that Ukraine can never break through. Maybe it will and maybe it won’t, but the so-called Surovikin fortifications do not extend along the entire front and in Kherson, such defenses as do exist, are far less extensive. Hence the5/ significance of UKR’s Krynky bridgehead on the RUS-held bank of the Dnipro in Kherson.THREE: Drones have been part of the war since the get-go and there’s been no big change in their role. In fact, recent changes in drone tech. have dramatically changed the cost exchange
6/ ratio, with cheap drones demolishing multi-million dollar tanks as well as IFVs that cost $ 400K and more. Indeed, but for drones, especially the FPV type, the Ukrainian foothold at Krynky, on the Russian-held left bank of the Dnipro, would have been overrun long ago because7/ it’s held by a small number of marines who have used drones to destroy lots of attacking armor. And this has happened not only in Krynky but also in other places, such as Avdiivka. Russia has made major investments in drones in recent months—something that a drone operator8/ explained to me during a discussion in Izyum. Then of course there’s the emergence of sea drones, which we’ve seen in action in the Black Sea, including in the last few days.Indeed, among UKR’s military weaknesses is the lack of sufficient drones, especially FPV variants.
9/ The majority of the drones its troops use are still supplied by volunteers who raise money by seeking donations.FOUR: Russian countermeasures have robbed Western missiles of much of their effectiveness. Russia has indeed adapted & improved its ECM, but Ukraine continues
10/ to use western missiles, notably HIMARS and Storm Shadow, with devastating effect, as witness last week’s attack on attack on the Russian airbase at Belbek that killed ~11 officers, including likely a general, and damaged three warplanes.11/ The Russian Black Sea Fleet has partly been moved to eastern Crimea, & even to Novorossiisk, precisely because of Ukraine’s devastating missile attacks.12/Re ATACMS; among the egs. of Ukraine’s use of it was an attack in October on Berdiansk, destroying several military helicopters, an ammunition storage site, and an air defense system. Russia claims to have intercepted ATACMs twice but I know of no independent verification.13/Ultimately, Ukraine’s military prospects hinge less on the points I’ve flagged for discussion here and much more on whether US military aid continues and whether Ukraine can mobilize and train ~500k additional soldiers—and whether Europe steps up far more than it has.14/14 A final, unrelated, point: Western military experts are telling Ukraine to avoid an offensive and to switch to defense. Ukraine’s generals and military experts KNOW this, esp given the uncertainties re US military aid and the latter have written about “active defense.”
A final thought for tonight:
General observation as the world lurches back towards a reality of war and competition.
Confronting adversaries like Russia, Iran, or the PRC successfully cannot be done without cost. It cannot be done if all uncomfortable choices are avoided. If the free world does not summon…
— Patrick Fox (@RealCynicalFox) February 5, 2024
General observation as the world lurches back towards a reality of war and competition.
Confronting adversaries like Russia, Iran, or the PRC successfully cannot be done without cost. It cannot be done if all uncomfortable choices are avoided. If the free world does not summon up the political cohesion, national resolve, moral clarity, and industrial might required to oppose these powers – it will lose. The side of right is not preordained to be victorious and thus far we are deficient in every category.
Our saving grace is that, unlike our totalitarian opponents, our leadership can be replaced by the popular will of a citizenry awakened to the dangers it faces.
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.
Today's Ukrainian cat—little badass in training. pic.twitter.com/0I2DoL5cTA
— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) January 30, 2024
Good morning from my friend Pumpkin. After a rough start, he's all cleaned up and waiting to be adopted. Look at that stripy tail. With Uncle Eugene @eugenehmg in Kyiv. pic.twitter.com/BnOjUDB9ht
— Lorenzo The Cat (@LorenzoTheCat) February 5, 2024
In Ukraine every life is worth saving. This cat isn't stuck in a tree, but she was stuck in the engine compartment of a car. Thankfully for the cat, @avfukraine responded to the call for help in their @SterlingILGov fire engine and was able to free her from the car. pic.twitter.com/kVJizuDzS8
— US Ambulances for Ukraine (@AmbulancesU) January 14, 2024
Open thread!