2024 Elections

In the end, the representatives of Iowa and New Hampshire were the only “no” votes on the proposed 2024 calendar, and both states will threaten to make their own 2024 plans, with Iowa holding a now-unsanctioned caucus (it can’t move to a primary without the cooperation of Iowa Republicans, who are perfectly happy with the existing system and calendar), and New Hampshire following a state law requiring its secretary of State to move its primary back perpetually to maintain its first-in-the-nation primary status. But in a gesture that the national party is not in a mood to negotiate with potential renegade states, its resolution requires proposed “early” states to certify their progress towards implementing the new calendar by early January or lose their exemption from the usual rules banning primaries prior to March…

Some wonder why the national parties don’t just adopt a “rational” system like a national primary or rotating regional primaries or whatever “reform” can be devised. But the abiding reality is that states have the exclusive power to set up taxpayer-funded primaries (one advantage of caucuses is that as party-managed and financed affairs, they don’t require any official state legislative authorization); the national parties can nudge them in the desired direction with carrots and sticks, but in the end there’s really no such thing as a primary “system.”

Given this basic structural limitation, Democrats have probably gone about as far and as fast as they could in shuffling the deck for 2024, and even now the rebellious muttering from the excluded or downgraded states could mean trouble down the road. The irony is that if Joe Biden winds up running for reelection without significant Democratic opposition while Republicans have some sort of Trump-DeSantis-Pence-Haley-Pompeo-Cruz donnybrook, the same old calendar, complete with a first-in-the-nation Iowa caucus, may be where all the action is, making the “reformed” Democratic calendar irrelevant (and Democrats are already saying they will revisit the whole subject in 2028). But for now, the old Democratic duopoly looks dead.

I don’t really give a shit about small states going first in a primary because they have cheaper media markets and allow for momentum or whatever the argument is. It’s almost always wrong and just sets up a BS argument about how the DNC stopped The (White) People’s Choice.

— The Fig Economy (@figgityfigs) December 2, 2022

The world holds its breath as Cheryl the Wal-Mart greeter strides the gymnasium floor like a colossus.

The fate of a superpower hangs in the balance.

— Checkless Starfish Who Can Change His Name (@IRHotTakes) December 3, 2022

Iowa may not have changed, but the nation has:

… The U.S. voting population has morphed from about 85% white in 1996 to 69% in 2020, Pew Research shows, with the newest generation able to vote, “Gen Z”, just 55% white. Iowa, with an approximately 90% white population, is no longer an accurate predictor of which candidate will do well on the national stage, Democrats say…

Campaign professional:

It’s a crushing blow to the owners of WMUR, who will lose huge amounts of ad revenue, & will lead to bitterness for all the mediocrities of both parties who think they’re geniuses bc they were once a public endorser of Bill Richardson or John Kasich https://t.co/KGZwqLq8vT

— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) December 2, 2022

New Hampshire campaign professional:

Wait, we in NH are going to go from going second…to going second? The #NHpolitics ecosystem wants me to be upset about this?

Are we going to pretend that because Iowa is a caucus and SC a primary, somehow that will make the whole quadrennial ritual feel different? https://t.co/zdG2QrCgm4

— Dean Barker (@deanbarker) December 2, 2022

Also, retail politics is fun and great and yes it happens in NH and we “kick the tires,” etc… take a look at 2016’s primary winners and ask yourself whether retail politics meant anything.

24/7 cable nets + internet = presidential campaigns are nationalized from the start now.

— Dean Barker (@deanbarker) December 2, 2022

It means two weeks of listening to Republican Sen. Tim Scott. That’s what the media is going to give us.

— Jason Harris (@jharrisfuture) December 2, 2022

Carolina area man:

That’s not a knock on Charleston. I love Charleston. But as a native son of the Great State of Not Charleston, there is a lot more to the state.

— Wyeth Ruthven (@wyethwire) December 2, 2022