Nice quiet Saturday, huh?
We’ll get to the fun stuff after the jump.
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump:
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn’t matter who commands them – address of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy
24 June 2023 – 20:10
Dear Ukrainians, all the people of the world, good health to you!
Today is a day when there definitely should be no silence. And we definitely need leadership.
Today the world saw that the bosses of Russia do not control anything. Nothing at all. Complete chaos. Complete absence of any predictability. And it is happening on Russian territory, which is fully loaded with weapons.
We all remember how the head of Russia threatened the world in 2021. He had some ultimatums, he was trying to show a kind of strength…
The year 2022 showed that he confused – confused his illusions and the lies he was fed with strength. They in the Kremlin are capable of resorting to any terror, capable of resorting to any stupidity, but they cannot provide even one percent of the necessary control. And they are the real problem.
In one day, they lost several of their million-plus cities and showed all Russian bandits, mercenaries, oligarchs and anyone else how easy it is to capture Russian cities and, probably, arsenals with weapons.
Now, it is very important that no one in the world remains silent because of being afraid of this Russian chaos. All the actions of the leaders now can be historic. Every word of journalists is worth its weight in gold. It is necessary to clearly name the source of the problem. And if someone in the world tries to ignore the situation, if someone in the world is under the illusion that the Kremlin is capable of regaining control… this only postpones the problem until the next breakthrough of chaos – even more dangerous.
We all know the solution.
First, the world should not be afraid. We know that only our unity protects us.
Ukraine will definitely be able to protect Europe from any Russian forces, and it doesn’t matter who commands them. We will protect. The security of Europe’s eastern flank depends only on our defense. And that is why every manifestation of support for our defense is support for your defense, everyone in the free world.
Ukrainian soldiers, Ukrainian guns, Ukrainian tanks, Ukrainian missiles are all that protect Europe from such marches as we see today on Russian territory. And when we ask to give us the F-16 fighters or the ATACMS, we’re enhancing our common defense. Real defense. This is what is needed. Now is the time to provide all the weapons necessary for defense.
Second, everything must be real. It’s time for everyone in the world to frankly say that all of Russia’s criminal actions against Ukraine were and are unprovoked. And we all have to focus exclusively on our common security priorities. NATO is not just a word or a set of formal promises. These are reliable guarantees for everyone that peace won’t be destroyed. Without Ukraine, such guarantees are worthless. Already in July at the summit in Vilnius, it is a historic chance for real decisions without looking back at Russia. Any nation that borders Russia really supports this.
And the third… I will say it in Russian. The man from the Kremlin is obviously very afraid and probably hiding somewhere, not showing himself. I am sure that he is no longer in Moscow. He calls somewhere, and asks something… He knows what he is afraid of because he himself created this threat. All evil, all losses, all hatred – he himself who spreads it. And the longer he can run between his bunkers, the more you all will lose… all who are connected with Russia.
What will we, Ukrainians, do?
We will defend our country. We will defend our freedom. We will not be silent and we will not be inactive. We know how to win – and it will happen. Our victory in this war will definitely be.
And what will you do?
The longer your troops stay on Ukrainian land, the more devastation they will bring to Russia. The longer this person is in the Kremlin, the more disasters there will be.
And now I’m switching to my native language.
Thanks to our soldiers! Thanks to everyone who is now beating the occupiers! Thanks to the Air Force for protecting our skies!
Glory to Ukraine!
We will defeat everyone!
It’s all over. For now…
The charges against Prigozhin are cancelled. Supposedly guarantees were given regarding Wagner and its ability to continue. Prigozhin is supposedly headed to Minsk, but who knows how long that lasts if it happens at all. He’s got air bases in Libya, Latakia in Syria, Mali, and he completely controls the Central African Republic on behalf of Putin’s and Russia’s Africa strategy. And he’s got his own Ilyushins to transport his personnel, equipment, and material around. I’ve seen lots of speculation that Shoigu was to be arrested and charged as part of this deal, but that doesen’t seem to have happened.
What we actually watched was about 36 hours of a true, albeit quite limited, civil war, not a coup. A challenge was made for the rule of Russia. It was well planned, and appeared to be long planned, and Prigozhin’s forces appeared to be making progress towards Moscow. I expect that whatever it was that Putin told Lukashenko to say to Prigozhin will eventually leak out. And then we’ll have a better idea of what the carrots and sticks were that brought this to an end. The only part of this that isn’t surprising is that it ended with a negotiated settlement. All low intensity wars, especially when fought between first parties (combatants from the same state and society), end in negotiated settlements. I can count on one hand the low intensity conflicts that ended because one side cleanly defeated the other.
Initially I thought it might be something else. When Putin didn’t immediately make an appearance last night, one of the things I was curious about was whether Putin had become incapacitated or died and that it was being compartmentalized by Patrushev, Shoigu, Gerasimov, Peskov, and others in Moscow. Prigozhin’s actions would have made a lot of sense if he’d gotten wind of it and decided to move before someone could consolidate power. Putin, however, was not dead and the challenge had nothing to do with it.
My professional take is that this is not over. This morning Putin looked and sounded focused. He did NOT mention Prigozhin by name, which is a Putin tell for when he considers someone an enemy that is also a threat. He never refers to Navalny by name. By this afternoon something had changed. In between Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries embarrassed the Russian military, security services, and police forces. I’ve written repeatedly that Putin will be strong and in control and look strong and in control until he is not. Over the past 36 hours or so he has not looked strong and in control. Additionally, Prigozhin had a clear and well developed plan that he was able to put into effect. Moreover, a number of key senior Russian military leaders appeared to be sympathetic to Prigozhin.
For fuck’s sake, the GRU is technically answerable to Gerasimov. He’s “quipping” to a putschist to arrest or snuff his boss.
— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) June 24, 2023
That’s never a good sign!
Nor is the fact that the residents of Rostov on Don seemed to be supportive of Prigozhin.
Prigozhin is leaving Southern Military District HQ in Rostov after halting his move to Moscow and accepting "security guarantees" from Putin.
Earlier footage today showed crowds cheering Wagner mercenaries and taking photos together in a show of support for the PMC. pic.twitter.com/InWeQUDZei
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023
One of the Wagner fighters opened fire in the sky during the withdrawal of the PMC from Rostov while civilians celebrated the mercenaries. pic.twitter.com/HpjTj98PTm
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023
Hours before this scene, Putin gave a national speech where he called Prigozhin's actions a "stab in the back" that threatened Russia's very statehood. An this is how locals in Rostov saw him off tonight. pic.twitter.com/zQKBEy4yXp
— Kevin Rothrock (@KevinRothrock) June 24, 2023
And not to happy with the police:
Civilians chanting "Shame!" and "Traitors!" at the police units which arrived back in Rostov after Wagner units withdrew. pic.twitter.com/bRmksxqw8W
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023
Here’s Prigozhin’s official statement:
Prigozhin says it's over:
"They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood…
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023
Full text:
Prigozhin says it’s over: “They were going to dismantle PMC Wagner. We came out on 23 June to the March of Justice. In a day, we walked to nearly 200km away from Moscow. In this time, we did not spill a single drop of blood of our fighters. Now, the moment has come when blood may spill. That’s why, understanding the responsibility for spilling Russian blood on one of the sides, we are turning back our convoys and going back to field camps according to the plan.”
Putin this AM: "This is exactly the kind of blow that was dealt to Russia in 1917 […] Intrigues, squabbles, politicking behind the back of the army and people resulted in the greatest of shocks, the destruction of the army, the collapse of the state"
Putin tonight: ¯_(ツ)_/¯ https://t.co/ZZJlZK2sbW
— max seddon (@maxseddon) June 24, 2023
Here’s Ukrainian officer Tatarigami’s take:
My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation:
The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications.
From both external and… pic.twitter.com/65KRIjYvsY
— Tatarigami_UA (@Tatarigami_UA) June 24, 2023
Here’s the full text of Tatarigami’s tweet:
My thoughts, and brief summary on the situation: The recent events have sparked contemplation on whether Prigozhin will endure the aftermath or succumb to its consequences. However, there is no doubt that this rebellion carries far-reaching implications. From both external and internal perspectives, Putin’s image has weakened, reminiscent of the Japanese emperor during the Sengoku period. Similar to a symbolic figure, the emperor held nominal power while warring samurai clans vied for control over Japan. Though Putin still wields undeniable power, it is evident that he has lost control over the situation, resulting in a significant crack in his perceived ability to exert authority and manage internal affairs. Additionally, Putin had to rely on the intervention of a foreign leader (Belarus) to resolve the internal conflict. These events highlight the potential use of military force against Putin’s government as a means to coerce acceptance of terms, although the details of the arrangement between Prigozhin and Putin-Lukashenko remain undisclosed. If a replacement occurs within the top military command, it would only reinforce such behavior. Furthermore, this upheaval exposes the inherent weakness within the system itself. Numerous senior officers responsible for decision-making chose to abstain from issuing orders or making decisive moves, opting to wait for the outcome. The relatively swift movement of Wagner forces from Ukraine to Moscow within a span of less than a day, coupled with the chaotic attempts to destroy bridges and hastily dig ditches near Moscow, have laid bare the unpreparedness of the system to face a genuine threat. It has been intriguing to witness the involvement of various groups, including the Club of Angered Patriots led by Strelkov, the Rusich neo-Nazi military unit, and the Kadyrovites, aligning themselves with different factions within the conflict. This development reveals a landscape that hints at the potential for a future civil war, While the immediate repercussions of the current events will become apparent in the coming weeks, it is crucial to recognize that we are merely at the inception of something far more significant. The unfolding situation carries profound implications that extend beyond the present moment.
And they got the tank out of the circus, which is a sentence I never expected to write.
/2. Today's circus performance is over. The tank was removed from the entrance to the circus. pic.twitter.com/sDhhhh3Y2C
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 24, 2023
Siverskiy Donets-Donbas Canal:
While Prigozhin was marching through Russia, soldiers of the 1st mechanized battalion🇺🇦 clashed with the 3rd battalion of the 🇷🇺57th Guards motorized rifle brigade, clearing the western bank of the Siverskiy Donets-Donbass canal.
The enemy battalion lost 50 wounded and over 30… pic.twitter.com/eakPY0UBGT
— Dmitri (@wartranslated) June 24, 2023
Full text:
While Prigozhin was marching through Russia, soldiers of the 1st mechanized battalion🇺🇦 clashed with the 3rd battalion of the 🇷🇺57th Guards motorized rifle brigade, clearing the western bank of the Siverskiy Donets-Donbass canal.
The enemy battalion lost 50 wounded and over 30 killed and practically stopped existing.
This was reported by the commander of the 3rd Assault Brigade Andriy Byletskiy.
Bakhmut:
Destruction of Russian observation complex hidden in one of the apartments in a destroyed multi-storey building in Bakhmut. By the 93th brigade of Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/aQTqLGncFH
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 24, 2023
That’s enough for tonight. We’ll see what tomorrow brings because despite everyone standing down today, it is unlikely that what was started by Prigozhin yesterday is over. Regardless of whether he’s the one to see things through to their end or not.
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War for Ukraine Day 486: Da Fuq They Doin Ova Der? Part IIPost + Comments (95)