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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

We are learning that “working class” means “white” for way too many people.

Proof that we need a blogger ethics panel.

The media handbook says “controversial” is the most negative description that can be used for a Republican.

Welcome to day five of every-bit-as-bad-as-you-thought-it-would-be.

Too often we hand the biggest microphones to the cynics and the critics who delight in declaring failure.

The line between political reporting and fan fiction continues to blur.

A snarling mass of vitriolic jackals

“The defense has a certain level of trust in defendant that the government does not.”

This year has been the longest three days of putin’s life.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

The fundamental promise of conservatism all over the world is a return to an idealized past that never existed.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

GOP baffled that ‘we don’t care if you die’ is not a winning slogan.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

After dobbs, women are no longer free.

The truth is, these are not very bright guys, and things got out of hand.

If you still can’t see these things even now, maybe politics isn’t your forte and you should stop writing about it.

Not all heroes wear capes.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Dumb motherfuckers cannot understand a consequence that most 4 year olds have fully sorted out.

This blog will pay for itself.

He seems like a smart guy, but JFC, what a dick!

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

GOP Venality Open Thread: Free (for A Small Fee)

by Anne Laurie|  July 27, 20256:15 pm| 56 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Republican Venality, Trumpery

NYT reports that a mysterious, *$984 million* transfer from a Pentagon"black box" account might be paying for the renovation of Trump's "free" Qatari jet.
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/27/u…

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— Anne S Kim (@anne-s-kim.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 9:56 AM

Per the NYTimes, “What Will It Cost to Renovate the ‘Free’ Air Force One? Don’t Ask”:

… Officially, and conveniently, the price tag has been classified. But even by Washington standards, where “black budgets” are often used as an excuse to avoid revealing the cost of outdated spy satellites and lavish end-of-year parties, the techniques being used to hide the cost of Mr. Trump’s pet project are inventive.

Which may explain why no one wants to discuss a mysterious, $934 million transfer of funds from one of the Pentagon’s most over-budget, out-of-control projects — the modernization of America’s aging, ground-based nuclear missiles.

In recent weeks, congressional budget sleuths have come to think that amount, slipped into an obscure Pentagon document sent to Capitol Hill as a “transfer” to an unnamed classified project, almost certainly includes the renovation of the new, gold-adorned Air Force One that Mr. Trump desperately wants in the air before his term is over. (It is not clear if the entire transfer will be devoted to stripping the new Air Force One back to its airframe, but Air Force officials privately acknowledge dipping into nuclear modernization funds for the complex project.)…

Mr. Trump’s plane probably won’t fly for long: It will take a year or two to get the work done, and then the Qatari gift — improved with the latest communications and in-flight protective technology — will be transferred to the yet-to-be-created Trump presidential library after he leaves office in 2029, the president has said…

“I would never be one to turn down that kind of an offer,” the president said in May. “I mean, I could be a stupid person and say, ‘No, we don’t want a free, very expensive airplane.’”

It is free in the sense that a used car handed over by a neighbor looking to get it out of his driveway is free. In this case, among the many modifications will be hardened communications, antimissile systems and engine capabilities to take the president quickly to safety as one of the older Air Force Ones did on Sept. 11, 2001, when Al Qaeda attacked the United States. And there is the delicate matter of ridding the jet of any hidden electronic listening devices that U.S. officials suspect may be embedded in the walls.

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Then, of course, it has to be stuffed with the luxuries — and gold trim — with which the 47th president surrounds himself, whether he is in the Oval Office or in the air. The jet’s upper deck has a lounge and a communications center, while the main bedroom can be converted into a flying sick bay in a medical emergency.

So it’s no surprise that one of Washington’s biggest guessing games these days is assessing just where the price tag will end up, on top of the $4 billion already being spent on the wildly-behind-schedule presidential planes that Boeing was supposed to deliver last year. It was those delays that led Mr. Trump to look for a gift…

“The more we learn about this deal, the more disturbing it becomes,” said Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Democrat of New Hampshire, who serves on the Armed Services Committee. “The security implications of accepting a private plane from a foreign nation as Air Force One and the resulting ethical concerns a gift of that sizes creates were already significant.”

But it was more worrisome, Ms. Shaheen said, that “this administration is diverting funds from the nuclear modernization budget to finance costly renovations to this plane.”

In doing so, she said, “we’re weakening our credibility to fund a vanity project for President Trump.”

Congressional Dems need to look for any opportunity to get votes on this. Toss an amendment in to a defense authorization, stuff like that, as often as they can. Make Repubs take bad votes on letting Trump steal $1B for his personal plane. I’m confident it will make for good attack ads next fall.

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— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 1:06 PM

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Hegseth repeatedly declined to comment on the price of upgrading the Qatari plane and when it would be delivered to be used as a presidential transport aircraft.

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— Data4Miles (@datafourmiles.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 4:36 PM

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Of note is that the US government already has several planes of this model set up to become the next airforce one and play roles in mobile command.
The special thing about this plane is that Trump thinks he will get it when he leaves office. That’s why it has jumped to the front of the line.

— felinecannonball (@felinecannon.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 11:19 AM

GOP Venality Open Thread: Free (for A Small Fee)Post + Comments (56)

RIP Tom Lehrer, A True American Genius

by Rose Judson|  July 27, 20251:20 pm| 88 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, RIP

Musical satirist Tom Lehrer, the composer of “Poisoning Pigeons in the Park”, “The Vatican Rag,” and many, many other memorable tunes, has passed away at the age of 97. He retired from writing songs in the 60s, and even went so far as to transfer the rights to his music into the public domain in 2020. You can read the NYT obituary via archive.is here. It contains a good summary of his attitude toward his career:

Mr. Lehrer’s lyrics were nimble, sometimes salacious and almost always sardonic, sung to music that tended to be maddeningly cheerful. Accompanying himself on piano, he performed in nightclubs, in concert and on records that his admirers purchased, originally by mail order only, in the hundreds of thousands.
But his entertainment career ultimately took a back seat to academia. In his heart he never quit his day job; he just took a few sabbaticals.
He stopped performing in 1960 after only a few years, resumed briefly in 1965 and then stopped for good in 1967. His music was ultimately just a momentary detour in an academic career that included teaching posts at Harvard, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of California, and even a stint with the Atomic Energy Commission.
As popular as his songs were, Mr. Lehrer never felt entirely comfortable performing them. “I don’t feel the need for anonymous affection,” he told The New York Times in 2000. “If they buy my records, I love that. But I don’t think I need people in the dark applauding.”

97 is a good, long life, but the passing of a real American genius always causes a pang.

Here’s my personal favorite of his:

And here’s British actor Daniel Radcliffe (most famous for playing Harry Potter, but a self-described Lehrer superfan), performing “The Elements” on Graham Norton’s chat show a few years back:

I know a lot of Jackals are fans of his. Open thread, with the hope you’ll all share songs, anecdotes, etc.

 

UPDATE to add this very funny anecdote:

2 Chainz sampled Tom Lehrer's The Old Dope Peddler 60 years after it had been recorded. Lehrer's response to the license request: "As sole copyright owner of 'The Old Dope Peddler', I grant you motherfuckers permission to do this. Please give my regards to Mr. Chainz, or may I call him 2?"

RIP TOM

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— Timothy Burke (@bubbaprog.lol) 27 July 2025 at 18:17

 

RIP Tom Lehrer, A True American GeniusPost + Comments (88)

Open Thread: Weekend Epstein Roundup

by Anne Laurie|  July 27, 202511:58 am| 121 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republicans in Disarray!, Trump Crime Cartel

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— Mike Luckovich (@mluckovich.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 4:33 PM

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All the Sunday news shows appear to be Epstein.

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 11:20 AM

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"Trump's Epstein mess dogs Republicans in home districts; Scandal follows Trump overseas"
www.msnbc.com/the-briefing…

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— MGB💙 (@wtpmary.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 1:55 AM

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This Is the Most Panicked Republicans Have Been in Years
#Trump

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— TrumpWatch (@trumpwatch.skyfleet.blue) July 24, 2025 at 4:06 PM

[Gift link]

… Republicans can’t keep their heads down and trust that the base will keep holding them up, because the Republican base is what’s causing the current panic. Far-right lawmakers are anxiously trying to navigate around the Scylla of Trump and congressional leadership pushing them to hold off on the Epstein issue, and the Charybdis of the hot-headed multitudes who lifted them into office after getting them to promise to reveal every dark secret of the Epstein case.

Mike Johnson is actually showing signs of stress
In a gaggle with reporters Wednesday, House Speaker Mike Johnson repeatedly said there is zero daylight between him, the White House, and the rank and file hardliners co-sponsoring Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie’s resolution calling for the administration to release the Epstein files…

But prior to the ten-minute huddle with reporters, a scent of fear was in the air. A Johnson aide scooted the lectern back from photographers, in an apparent attempt to keep their cameras further away. The aide then demanded that everyone there agree not to post pictures of the speaker’s prepared remarks,1 forcing the camera and lighting crew to hastily reframe their shots. I caught a glimpse of Johnson’s remarks on the lectern—they looked scribbled over, as though they’d been intensely edited on the fly.

Elsewhere in the Capitol, I’ve heard from television news producers that GOP lawmakers have been getting upset after being informed before the cameras started rolling that Epstein would be a topic of discussion during their interviews. “Epstein? You asked me about that last week!” crowed one Republican in the Cannon rotunda, according to one producer.

Rank and file defiance

Trump’s insistence that the Epstein matter be dropped has pushed some House Republicans into a state of open rebellion against both the president and congressional leadership. Democrats know this and are exploiting it to their advantage. In multiple House committees this week, Democrats sought votes and engaged in procedural maneuvers from the minority position in an effort to draw Republicans into debates on Epstein—and even, in some cases, into temporary alliances on the issue…

Campaign season is about to really begin
The August recess could provide a relatively rare occurrence: Republicans hitting the trail in their home districts and being confronted directly by constituents in the process…

Democrats are keeping Epstein legislative, not political
Democrats have walked a very thin line on Epstein. On Capitol Hill, Democrats have been gleefully hammering their Republican colleagues about their longheld conspiracy theory suddenly going bad on them. But off the Hill and in the company of journalists, some Democrats have been reticent about the issue.

Rep. Suzan DelBene (D-Wash.), the chair of House Democrats’ campaign arm, met with a handful of reporters at the St. Regis Hotel just a couple of blocks from the White House on Wednesday. When I asked her about potential political messaging on Epstein, DelBene quickly pivoted the conversation to classic kitchen-table issues…

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I can't believe Trump went to Scotland to avoid questions about Epstein. Frankly, I would fear Scottish journalists more than American ones in his situation.

— Cheryl Lynn Eaton (@cheryllynneaton.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 5:50 PM

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Musk sought to stoke the Trump-Epstein scandal. Mission accomplished.
The leading role the former “first buddy” took in stoking the Epstein controversy shows how he remains a potent political risk for Trump months after he publicly left the White House.
apple.news/A8miqH1aUTRq…

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— laurarsi.bsky.social (@laurarsi.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 8:11 PM


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BREAKING: A House panel votes to subpoena files in the Jeffrey Epstein investigation as a push for disclosure intensifies.

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— The Associated Press (@apnews.com) July 23, 2025 at 5:56 PM

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I’ll note none of this has anything to do w magic procedural tricks, being like McConnell, denying unanimous consent, “fighting” etc. We’ve just finally hit that moment where Repubs are beginning to fear something &/or someone more than they fear Trump, & Dems finally got a GOP weakness to exploit

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— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) July 23, 2025 at 7:54 PM

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I can think of 2 times when leading U.S. officials fled Washington in a panic:
August 1814:
British forces briefly capture the capital and set fire to government buildings.
July 2025:
Republicans fear they'll have to vote on the Epstein files, so they adjourn early and run for the hills.

— Mark Jacob (@markjacob.bsky.social) July 23, 2025 at 7:36 PM

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*this* is how desperate Trump is to distract from Epstein:
-denaturalize Rosie O’Donnell
-cane sugar in Coca-Cola
-threaten Washington Commanders
-Hillary’s emails
-arrest Obama
-arrest Kamala
-arrest Oprah
-arrest Beyoncé
-arrest Al Sharpton

— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 1:15 AM

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Democrats getting handed "The entire Republican Party stops governing to further the cover-up of the elite pedophile ring of which their leader, the President of the United States of America, was a prominent member" is like finding the Ark of the Covenant of political scandals

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— Sean T. Collins (@seantcollins.com) July 23, 2025 at 2:42 PM

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No there there after a decade of ginning up the base on toxic conspiracies, so the botching of this was inevitable: How a Frantic Scouring of the Epstein Files Consumed the Justice Dept. www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/u…

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— Kara Swisher (@karaswisher.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 9:21 PM

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COLUMN: The Epstein files timeline raises real questions for Trump.
"For starters, there is a conspicuous rhetorical shift that occurs after May, when Bondi and Blanche reportedly briefed Trump" that his name was in the files, writes Ankush Khardori.

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— Politico (@politico.com) July 25, 2025 at 5:14 PM

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There are many conspiracy theories surrounding the Epstein case.
I would argue that pursuing whether Donald Trump (an adjudicated rapist who Epstein said was his closest friend) is covering up evidence that he sexually abused children with Epstein isn't a conspiracy theory. It's basic oversight.

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— Max Berger (@maxberger.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 11:42 AM

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I think he's genuinely shocked that his base is holding him accountable for something he said. Its literally never happened before and it shifts the admin's entire governing philosophy

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— Gillian Branstetter (@gbbranstetter.bsky.social) July 12, 2025 at 8:07 PM

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10 years of people saying we can break off pieces off Trump's coalition by offering them healthcare and rural broadband and what finally broke his base was the revelation that there isn't a Democratic pedophile cult.

— Everything Price Sufferer (but especially eggs) (@agraybee) July 13, 2025

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Great thing about these responses is that a lot of MAGA will decide he’s deliberately lying to them, but among those who choose not to believe he’s lying to them many will conclude he’s senile.

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— Dana Houle (@danahoule.bsky.social) July 15, 2025 at 2:17 PM

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I do seem to remember that, yeah.

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— Patrick Chovanec (@prchovanec.bsky.social) July 15, 2025 at 6:36 AM

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Jeffrey Epstein was never 'just a distraction' – not to MAGA which saw him as the embodiment of immoral liberal hypocrisy, and which is much madder about their bubble bursting than any Medicaid cuts
What Dems must learn from the Epstein meltdown. My new column www.inquirer.com/opinion/comm…

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— Will Bunch (@willbunch.bsky.social) July 13, 2025 at 2:00 PM

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The Atlantic:
Trump’s Epstein Denials Are Ever So Slightly Unconvincing
The president is not behaving like an innocent man with nothing to hide.
By Jonathan Chait
share.google/JDidXkyIAatK…

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— Frank Amari (@frankamari.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 8:18 AM

… On Truth Social, Trump complained that he had asked Rupert Murdoch, the Journal’s owner, to spike the story, and received an encouraging answer, only for the story to run. Under normal circumstances, a president confessing that he tried to kill an incriminating report would amount to a major scandal. But Trump has so deeply internalized his own critique of the media, according to which any organ beyond his control is “fake news,” that he believed the episode reflected badly on Murdoch’s ethics rather than his own…

Open Thread: Weekend Epstein RoundupPost + Comments (121)

War for Ukraine Day 1,248: The Reason

by Adam L Silverman|  July 26, 20258:18 pm| 20 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by the Ukrainain artist NEIVANMADE. The upper 1/2 is grey and there are black Shahed drones on it aimed towards the bottom of the painting. The bottom half of the painting has a blood red background and in the center of the bottom is a house, to it's left is a swing set, and to its right is a car. They are charcoal grey on the blood red background background. The drones are targeting the house, swing set, and car. Above the house and below the drones are the words "Russia Kills To Erase Free People".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

I’m still feeling bleh, so I’m just going to run through the basics again tonight.

It’s 2;25 AM local time in Ukraine/7:25 PM EDT and the air raid alerts are now back up for Kharkiv Oblast. Odesa Oblast has been under air raid alert for a while tonight/this morning. Both are for drone swarms.

The reason:

While Kharkiv was under russian attack last night, Ukrainian rescuers shielded a woman, her child, and their pet with their own bodies💔

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 5:08 AM

The cost:

Fascist Russia’s nightly Blitz air raids against Ukrainian cities continue. The Kremlin still rejects Kyiv’s call for an unconditional ceasefire. 38 days until Sept 2 Trump deadline to Putin to agree peace deal. No sign Putin will comply.
kyivindependent.com/9-killed-61-…

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 5:05 AM

Daily life in Ukraine: russia attacked Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions again. Civilians killed and injured. Homes, infrastructure, and businesses destroyed. Rescuers among the wounded.

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— Olena Halushka (@halushka.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 2:49 AM

Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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Now Is the Moment When Pressure Needs to Be Put On Russia, So Strong That Next Year There Is No War – Address by the President

26 July 2025 – 21:29

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

The most important updates. First – the military. Today, several reports have already been made regarding our frontlines and our operations. The Armed Forces, the Security Service of Ukraine, and the intelligence agencies – I thank everyone for their long-range effectiveness. Everyone can see that Ukrainian drones are hitting their targets.

There was a report by General Syrskyi, with a lot of attention specifically on the Pokrovsk direction. There are successful actions by our units in the Sumy region. Thank you! They are eliminating the occupiers in the border areas. This is crucial.

Today, unfortunately, there were numerous Russian strikes on our cities and our communities: Sumy – including Ukrainian energy infrastructure, as well as Dnipro, Kharkiv, Kherson region, and Donetsk region. Wherever needed, rescuers from the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and all relevant services respond immediately. I thank you all for your promptness. We will respond to every Russian strike.

There were important reports from our intelligence agencies, including one from the Foreign Intelligence Service on the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia and Russia-affiliated entities. The enemy’s losses – economic losses – are truly being felt. And they will be felt even more. I want to thank everyone in the world who is helping.

Now is precisely the moment when pressure needs to be put on Russia, so strong that next year there is no war. They must realize that they will not be able to wait it out. Sanctions must effectively strip Russia of its potential. We are working to achieve this.

I also had a discussion with the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine. Also, our diplomacy maintains a daily rhythm of work, with a lot of communication with partners these days.

I instructed the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council to be more active in attracting external funding for drones. I also instructed government officials and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine to more actively review all our agreements we have with our partners – the ones we must implement fully, but which, unfortunately, are currently still only partially being carried out. I expect the relevant reports this week.

And one more thing. There is a government decision to support universities in the frontline regions and border cities – in the Sumy region, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv. Additional funding – UAH 300 million – is being allocated specifically for these difficult conditions, for the educational institutions that preserve our student communities, our student groups, that continue to teach against all odds. Great job! It is extremely important to preserve Ukrainian educational centres. Karazin University, and many others. We will continue to support you.

I also signed a decree today regarding the Shevchenko Prize – this is a step toward expanding the award. There have been many discussions with experts and the cultural community. The Prize Committee has done a great job. So, starting next year, the Shevchenko Prize may also be awarded – apart from traditional nominations – for Ukrainian photography. And now, in the conditions of war, it is so important to capture all the emotions and all the prowess of our people.

A new category for curatorial work has also been added, as well as one for contemporary design – and there is truly a lot of our powerful Ukrainian graphic design, fonts, and more; all this deserves our particular attention. We also broadened the usual literature and music nominations of the Shevchenko Prize. And we will continue looking for ways to thank those among our people who preserve Ukrainian cultural heritage. This will be a special format, and before Ukraine’s Independence Day, together with the cultural community and all experts, we will find the necessary solutions. I thank everybody standing with us, with Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

For the 241st consecutive day, Rustaveli Avenue is blocked in Tbilisi, Georgia. Protests continue in 8+ cities. 🇬🇪

We aren’t handing our country over to a Russian oligarch.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 2:17 PM

Today family members of imprisoned protesters distributed the second edition of the newspaper “letters from political prisoners to the Georgian citizens” on Eliava market in Tbilisi. The newspaper contains letters from family members as well.

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— Mariam Nikuradze (@mariamnikuradze.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 9:39 AM

Georgians took to the highway to greet the NATO and Ukrainian military.

They have Georgian, US, EU, NATO and Ukrainian flags, among others. 🇬🇪🇪🇺🇺🇸🇺🇦

We belong with the Euro-Atlantic world.

Agile Spirit 2025.

Day 241 of #GeorgiaProtests

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 8:13 AM

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 1:46 PM

India:

🇮🇳‼️ Indian company Ideal Detonators Private Ltd has confirmed that it has supplied the explosive octogen (HMX) to Russia. The export is worth at least $1.4 million.

In response to Reuters inquiry, company said that “the explosive was intended for industrial purposes and is for civilian use only.”

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— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 4:12 PM

Lithuania:

Lithuania plans to contribute up to €30 million toward the purchase of US-made Patriot air defense systems for Ukraine, according to Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė. The move comes as several European countries discuss joint efforts to supply Patriots to Ukraine.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 12:02 PM

Germany:

Germany has already delivered three Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine and is discussing further deliveries with Washington, according to the Washington Post. In total, Germany has agreed to provide five such systems.
www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/0…

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 9:26 AM

On Tuesday or Wednesday Spiegel reported that Germany wouldn’t deliver one Patriot battery for a year, Yesterday we got reporting from The Telegraph that one had been delivered. Now The Washington Post says Germany has delivered. At this rate, by Monday Germany will have delivered nine Patriot batteries and in a month it’ll be like 500 of them or something.

NATO:

Tusk says NATO has warned Poland that Russia could be ready for war with the EU as early as 2027.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:25 AM

There’s your actual pacing threat.

Back to Ukraine.

When it comes to the results of Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia, one of the most asked questions is why Ukrainian drone strikes cause damage that often appears insufficient. The answer lies largely in engineering trade-offs: the balance between range and payload. Thread 🧵:

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— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

2/ Drones that fly far have to allocate a lot of their weight and space to fuel/batteries, which leaves less room for explosives. Long range also creates aerodynamic issues – to carry more fuel, drones needs to be bigger, which makes them heavier, slower, easier to intercept

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

3/ Advanced materials and engineering could help mitigate these limitations, but such solutions often dramatically increase costs and reduce scalability, which are critical factors in a war of attrition. And even high-end drones remain vulnerable to simple and cheap air defense

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

4/ Russia, by contrast, have a certain geographic advantage here. Targets like Kyiv or Kharkiv are close to border and fall within range of drones with heavier payloads and shorter flight distances. As a result, Russian drones can prioritize impact over “endurance”.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

5/ In Ukraine’s case, achieving sufficiently destructive effects would require medium-range ballistic or cruise missiles. But developing and producing such systems is far more complex and expensive than assembling drones.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

6/ Iran, for example, spent more than a decade building its “own” MRBM program. For Ukraine, developing and scaling missile production in wartime conditions, when Russia can hit any facility across the country is a major industrial and logistical limitation.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

7/ On a more optimistic note, Ukraine has made significant progress. Compared to 2023 and 2024, it has taken a major leap, not just in designing long-range drones, but also in scaling production to the point where strikes inside Russia are now almost a daily occurrence.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

8/ Ukrainians have also advanced in hybrid propulsion, improved explosive mixtures that boost impact even with smaller warheads. Work continues on flight path optimization and other refinements, but such progress takes time – a resource increasingly scarce for Ukraine.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:26 AM

Frontelligence Insight estimates that by the end of June 2025, Russian combat fatalities may have reached, or even surpassed, 250,000. The projection is based on a synthetic estimation model that extrapolates from regionally confirmed, by-name casualty records.
🧵Thread:

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 12:36 PM

2/ The team drew on confirmed casualty data compiled by Idel.Realities and Baikal Stories, tallying losses by region of origin and comparing them to each region’s working-age male population (defined as ages 16 to 60). The analysis covered 17 Russian regions.

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 12:36 PM

F-16 of the Ukrainian Air Force is heading to repel an enemy attack with a full complement of air-to-air missiles. t.me/AIRTEAM_UA

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 1:12 PM

A drone with a fuselage shape unknown to me was also hit.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 6:20 AM

Unknown previously unseen jet drone found on the Russian territory.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 11:57 AM

A unique moment: a Ukrainian UAV from the 47th Brigade’s recon unit crossed paths with a Ukrainian helicopter somewhere over Ukraine.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 8:37 AM

Kharkiv:

Yet another night in Kharkiv is shrouded in horror and explosions, as russia attacks the city with drones.

— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 5:10 PM

Oh, fuck off already! More explosions in Kharkiv ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 5:14 PM

Midnight in Kharkiv. Drones buzz overhead, air defenses shooting, explosions shake our city.

How’s your Saturday night?

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 5:12 PM

4 guided aerial bombs
2 ballistic missiles
15 drones

Struck Kharkiv last night during over 3 hours long Russian attack.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 2:08 PM

Kharkiv came under a massive overnight attack. Between 00:10 and 3:00, russia targeted civilian enterprises with guided bombs, Iskander missiles, and over 10 Shahed drones. Four people were injured, including emergency workers. Nearby apartment buildings were damaged by the blast wave.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 4:59 AM

In last night’s attack, russians destroyed a district heating plant in Kharkiv that supplied heat to approximately 53,000 residents.

The facility was hit twice. Fortunately, no staff members were injured.

It won’t be possible to restore the heating plant before the cold season.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 8:10 AM

Kharkiv after last night’s russian attack.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:51 AM

Sumy:

❗️Russia targeted the regional administration in Sumy with a drone strike

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 6:54 AM

Oleksiivka, Sumy Oblast:

According to Russian sources, heavy fighting has erupted for the village of Oleksiivka in the Sumy region, currently still occupied by Russian forces. Russian sources complain that the situation is deteriorating due to the arrival of a significant amount of Ukrainian forces.

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— NOELREPORTS (@noelreports.com) July 26, 2025 at 3:07 PM

Dnipro:

Horrific moment of russian strike on Dnipro last night

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 7:24 AM

A 21-year-old woman has died in a Dnipro hospital following a russian attack on the city, according to the Regional Military Administration.

In total, 3 people have been killed and six injured in Dnipro and its surrounding district last night.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 8:37 AM

Kam’yanske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast:

Footage from a destroyed Epicenter-K home goods, DIY construction materials and groceries hypermarket in Kam’yanske, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Fascist Russia struck the hypermarket overnight on July 25-26 during its latest Blitz air raid on democratic Ukraine.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 4:01 AM

More footage from Kamianske, Dnipropetrovsk region, shows a shopping center destroyed by a Russian strike.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 2:49 AM

Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast:

🇺🇦💔 This is what Chasiv Yar looks like now.
A town in the Bakhmut district of Donetsk region.

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— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 1:08 PM

Kyiv:

Protests day 4

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— Mira of Kyiv 🇺🇦 (@reshetz.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 3:08 PM

Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Ukraine reports killing Russian colonel leading assaults in Kharkiv Oblast #Ukraine

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— AmplifyUkraine 🔱🇺🇦 (@amplifyukraine.eu) July 26, 2025 at 4:52 PM

Ukrainian forces have killed Colonel Lebedev, commander of Russia’s 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment, in the Kupyansk sector, according to the Khortytsia command.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 2:12 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

Ukraine’s Khortytsia group of forces reported on July 26 that Russian Colonel Lebedev, commander of the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division, had been killed.

According to operational data, Lebedev was leading assault operations in the Velykyi Burluk area of Kharkiv Oblast. No other information was available at the time of the publication.

This reported fatality adds to a significant and growing toll of Russian military personnel killed in Ukraine.

The independent Russian media outlet Mediazona, in collaboration with the BBC Russian service, has confirmed the identities of 119,154 Russian military personnel killed in the war as of July 17. This latest update saw 2,436 additional Russian military personnel confirmed killed since the start of July.

Journalists compiling this data caution that the actual figures are likely considerably higher, as their verified information stems from public sources such as obituaries, family posts, memorial events, regional media reports, and statements from local authorities. The publications began releasing a comprehensive list of identified casualties in February, marking three years since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The confirmed death toll includes a breakdown of various categories of personnel: 32,100 volunteers, 17,800 recruited prisoners, and 13,000 mobilized soldiers. Additionally, nearly 5,400 officers have been confirmed among the deceased.

Russia has lost approximately 1,048,330 troops in Ukraine since the start of its full-scale invasion on Feb. 24, 2022, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ General Staff reported on July 26.

Pokrovsk:

The entire Russian column was destroyed. Ukrainian artillery and drone units from the 155th Mechanized Brigade repelled an enemy assault near Pokrovsk.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 1:06 PM

Pokrovsk from a Russian drone’s perspective.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 1:06 PM

Amavir airfield, Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

A Su-27UB aircraft was destroyed at Russia’s Armavir airfield, as reported by the GUR 😍🔥

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 12:47 PM

Su-27UB military aircraft was set on fire by saboteurs at the Armavir airbase in Russia

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 9:57 AM

Stavropol, Russia:

Still from video of Ukrainian “mini-Shahed” type drone used in attack on electronics plants in Stavropol, SW Russia early morning July 26. Extended delta wing with side vertical stabilizers, “canard” foreplanes, and rear propeller.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 12:51 AM

A Ukrainian “Liutyi” drone is seen striking the “Signal” electronics plant in Stavropol, SW Russia, early on July 26. The plant, which supplies the Russian military, was also struck by a 🇺🇦 “Shahed”-type drone. Another electronics factory in the city, “Stilsoft”, was also hit.

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— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 12:06 AM

Russian Signal plant in Stavropol was also targeted by new Ukrainian drones which visually resemble Shahed/Harop

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 3:30 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is a Ukrainian bird perched on a Ukrainian drone.

A bird perched on the propeller of a Ukrainian FPV drone lying in ambush.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) July 26, 2025 at 12:15 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,248: The ReasonPost + Comments (20)

GOP Venality Open Thread: Ken Paxton, Triple-Dipper

by Anne Laurie|  July 26, 20255:35 pm| 52 Comments

This post is in: Local Races, Open Threads, Republican Venality

I'm shocked, shocked I say, that a corrupt AF cheating dog is corrupt AF.
Ken Paxton Claimed Three Houses as His Primary Residence, Records Show – The New York Times
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/24/u…

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— Jan COFFEE IS LIFE! Dembowski (@jdembowski.bsky.social) July 25, 2025 at 11:56 AM

I said, when the news of the Paxton divorce broke, it would be rooted in financial corruption, not ‘biblical adultery’. Don’t know how the applicable laws work in Texas, but I do know that large financial institutions take a very negative attitude towards this kind of white-collar crime. Maybe Angela Paxton wanted to protect her share of the marital assets (and her pension from the state legislature) by making it clear she only dutifully initialed those dishonest mortgage papers…

Per the NYTimes, “Ken Paxton Claimed Three Houses as His Primary Residence, Records Show” [gift link]:

Attorney General Ken Paxton of Texas and his now-estranged wife, Angela, declared three separate Texas homes as their primary residence in mortgage documents, according to records obtained by The New York Times.

The possible misrepresentation could have allowed the couple to secure more favorable loan terms and save hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The issue, first reported by The Associated Press, emerged on Thursday, two weeks after his wife, a state senator, filed for divorce, accusing him of adultery, and a little more than three months after Mr. Paxton announced that he would challenge Senator John Cornyn in what could be the Republican primary season’s toughest, most expensive race in 2026…

The Paxtons reside in a home worth more than $1 million in McKinney, a suburb of Dallas, according to their voter registration records. That house is in the State Senate district that Ms. Paxton represents and the one Mr. Paxton represented as a state senator before he was elected attorney general in 2014.

The couple also holds mortgages on two houses in Austin, each of which they also called their primary address. Those houses appear to be rental properties, based on online listings. Mr. Paxton has disclosed rental income from two Austin sources on his financial disclosure documents.

Properties that generate rental income are considered investment properties and can be more difficult to finance than owner-occupied homes because they are considered riskier investments.

It is a federal and state crime to knowingly make false statements on mortgage documents. Mortgage fraud cases are usually settled out of court through bank fees and other penalties because they are typically difficult to prove, legal experts said…

show full post on front page

Mr. Paxton has held onto power over three terms as attorney general despite numerous legal challenges over the past decade. In 2015, he was indicted on accusations that he had misled investors into putting money into a technology company without disclosing that he was making a commission on their investments. Mr. Paxton was charged with securities fraud, a felony, and ultimately reached a $300,000 settlement deal to avoid a criminal trial.

In 2023, he was impeached by the Republican-controlled State House over accusations of corruption and abuse of power made by former top aides. He was acquitted in the Republican-led Senate.

Mr. Cornyn has called the looming primary fight “a test of whether character still matters,” and in a statement on Thursday, the senator’s campaign team called Mr. Paxton’s real estate maneuverings “deeply unethical.”…

Records indicate that the Paxtons have also collected tax breaks on two of their Texas homes. The couple has claimed a homestead exemption on their McKinney home since they purchased it, according to Collin County public records, reducing the amount of their home’s value that was subject to property taxes.

In 2018, they simultaneously received similar exemptions on one of their Austin properties, according to Travis County tax records. Under Texas law, homeowners seeking a homestead exemption must complete a form certifying that the property is their primary residence. Travis County officials told The Associated Press that the benefits of the homestead exemption had transferred to the Paxtons from a previous owner.

Mr. Paxton may have also violated mortgage terms by renting out at least two properties that were purchased as vacation homes. In 2022, Mr. Paxton bought a $1.6 million house in Broken Bow, Okla., with a $1.28 million mortgage. Mr. Paxton indicated in the mortgage document, which was not signed by his wife, that the property would be used as a second home, not as a time share or rental property. The property has been listed for rent on the vacation rental site Vrbo, the Dallas Observer reported.

The Paxtons also claimed that a fourth house they purchased in College Station, Texas, in 2016 would be used as a secondary home, not as a rental property. But the house, worth about $360,000, has been listed for rent seven times on Zillow since 2015…

It’s just possible, per the Dallas Chronicle, that the Christianist base has gotten tired of turning a blind eye to Paxton’s ‘weaknesses’ — “Conservative power group drops support of Ken Paxton amid divorce news”:

Texas Values, an influential group that operates to advance family and Judeo-Christian values in the state, dropped its support of Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s bid for U.S. Senate days after news broke that state Senator Angela Paxton filed for divorce…

Texas Values is not the only group to have since rebuked the attorney general, who is running for U.S. Senate against longtime incumbent U.S. Senator John Cornyn. The National Republican Senatorial Committee did not mince words when coming out against Paxton’s alleged actions in his marriage…

A spokesperson for Texans for a Conservative Majority, a super PAC known to be pro-Cornyn, referred to news of the divorce as the “latest saga that represents a tectonic shift in the race.” The super PAC began running TV ads that refer to Cornyn as a “man who votes with President Trump over 99 percent of the time,” challenging the common criticism that in the past, the Texas senator has not been on the president’s side as frequently as Paxton.

Cornyn’s campaign initially remained silent on the matter; however, it released a digital ad late last week that addressed the divorce filing and alleged that Paxton was “at it again” after “embarrassing his family once.” Cornyn also recently referred to Paxton as an “onion” of corruption, saying every time “you peel back one layer of corruption, there’s something underneath.”…

The primary race for Cornyn’s seat was already a closely watched contest, with Paxton and Cornyn taking swipes at one another as the attorney general attempts to move into national leadership and the longtime senator tries to cling to political relevance…

It’s not as though it’s news in Texas that Paxton has, shall we say, a highly self-serving attitude towards other peoples’ money (as well as their significant others):

$3,780 an hour.
That's the hourly fee for a lawyer handling a lawsuit on behalf of Texas attorney general's office.
Texas AG Ken Paxton Is Increasingly Relying on Costly Private Lawyers, by @zachdespart.bsky.social @texastribune.org

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— Charles Ornstein (@charlesornstein.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 11:28 AM

… When a Texas attorney general previously made a practice of giving lucrative contracts to private counsel, it didn’t end well.

Dan Morales was the last Democrat to hold the office. He became embroiled in scandal after he used outside firms to help secure a $17 billion settlement in Big Tobacco litigation in 1998.

Republicans, including then-Gov. George W. Bush, blasted the $3.2 billion payout to the outside lawyers as exorbitant. Their attacks grew more intense when Morales sought to steer $500 million of that sum to a lawyer, a personal friend, who did very little work on the case. Morales pleaded guilty in 2003 to related federal corruption charges. He served 3 1/2 years behind bars.

John Cornyn, the Republican who succeeded Morales in 1999, criticized his predecessor’s handling of the tobacco case during his campaign for the office. In an interview for this story, Cornyn said he never hired outside counsel as attorney general because he focused on recruiting talented in-house lawyers that he felt could handle all the office’s cases.

Paxton is challenging Cornyn, now a four-term U.S. senator, in next year’s Republican primary…

Much more inflammatory detail at the link!

GOP Venality Open Thread: Ken Paxton, Triple-DipperPost + Comments (52)

Quick, Someone Make a Ham Sandwich

by Rose Judson|  July 26, 20254:20 pm| 12 Comments

This post is in: Criminal Justice, Immigration, Justice, Open Threads, The Horrors

You’ve all heard the saying about grand juries — you could get them to indict a ham sandwich. Well, grand juries in LA seem to not be taking the bait when it comes to prosecuting people protesting ICE raids and kidnappings. According to the LA Times:

Although [Trump-appointed U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli’s] office filed felony cases against at least 38 people for alleged misconduct that either took place during last month’s protests or near the sites of immigration raids, many have been dismissed or reduced to misdemeanor charges.

In total, he has secured only seven indictments, which usually need to be obtained no later than 21 days after the filing of a criminal complaint. Three other cases have been resolved via plea deal, records show.

The three officials who spoke to The Times on condition of anonymity said prosecutors have struggled to get several protest-related cases past grand juries, which need only to find probable cause that a crime has been committed in order to move forward. That is a much lower bar than the “beyond a reasonable doubt” standard required for a criminal conviction.

Five cases have been dismissed without prejudice — meaning they could be refiled — and records show nine have been filed as misdemeanors, which do not require a grand jury indictment to proceed. In some cases, prosecutors reduced charges against defendants to misdemeanors after repeatedly falling short at the grand jury stage, according to the three officials….

Legal experts said Essayli’s low number of indictments raised concerns about the strength of the cases he is filing.

Carley Palmer, a former federal prosecutor in L.A. who is now a partner at Halpern May Ybarra Gelberg, said the grand jury’s repeated rejection of cases was “a strong indication that the priorities of the prosecutor’s office are out of sync with the priorities of the general community.”

Huh, no kidding. I wonder if future jury members in other communities may be similarly inclined, given the revelations about the online company various ICE goons in suits keep. Here’s an excerpt from a February story from the Texas Observer, “ICE Prosecutor in Dallas Runs White Supremacist X Account,” that may have passed you by at the time:

Since GlomarResponder was first created in 2012, the account has posted hateful, xenophobic, and pro-fascist content. “America is a White nation, founded by Whites. … Our country should favor us,” GlomarResponder wrote last month. “All blacks are foreign to my people, dumb fuck,” the account posted in September of last year. “Freedom of association hasn’t existed in this country since 1964 at the absolute latest,” GlomarResponder wrote four months prior, further clarifying the post was referring to the Civil Rights Act of 1964 in a reply to a comment. “I’m not a commie, I’m a fascist,” GlomarResponder posted a couple weeks later. “Fascists solve communist problems. Get your insults right, retard.”

In August, GlomarResponder posted: “‘Migrants’ are all criminals.” Two months later, GlomarResponder shared an image that reads: “It is our holy duty to guard against the foreign hordes.”

There’s a lot more in that vein, but I’ll spare you. (Also, GlomarResponder, you dipshit, commies very famously solved the fascist problem during WWII. Christ.)

Given that ICE has been provided with an absolute avalanche of cash to act out the fantasies of people like Essayli and GlomarResponder (a/k/a James Rodden), they may yet find a way to circumvent grand juries. But I’m glad that they’re throwing a little sand in the gears in the meantime.

“In the matter of Bondi vs. Ham Sandwich, we the jury find the defendant not guilty on all counts.”

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— Bill Grueskin (@bgrueskin.bsky.social) July 24, 2025 at 2:54 AM

Ugh. Fuck everything. Open thread.

Quick, Someone Make a Ham SandwichPost + Comments (12)

Trump in Scotland

by Betty Cracker|  July 26, 20252:59 pm| 73 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Open Threads, Politics, Republican Stupidity

O wad some Pow’r the giftie gie us
To see oursels as ithers see us!

— Robert Burns, national poet of Scotland

The bad news: Trump is burning through tens of millions of our dollars to go play golf in another country with one of the failsons, probably hoping to put some distance between himself and the Epstein scandal.

The good news: He’s is Scotland, and there is perhaps no population as equipped to mercilessly skewer the mottled orange haggis as the Scots.

Scots protesting Trump in Scotland

From America’s shittiest/most influential newspaper:

On Saturday, the Scots, who opinion polls show have low regard for Mr. Trump, let their opposition to his policies be known.

A group called Stop Trump Scotland organized a rally as a “festival of resistance” against Mr. Trump that drew hundreds in Aberdeen, in Scotland’s north, and Edinburgh.

Protesters carried signs objecting to Mr. Trump’s policies, from the environment and immigration to trade and the war in Gaza. Several held signs invoking the current controversy circling around Mr. Trump: his administration’s handling of the so-called Epstein files, the records that pertain to the sex offender Jeffrey Epstein…

Many signs at the rally contained similar insults about Mr. Trump’s relationship with Mr. Epstein. The two men, both wealthy New Yorkers, were friends for some 15 years, before they had a falling out in 2004. Mr. Epstein killed himself in jail in 2019.

Mel Young, 58, of Alloa, held a sign that said “Release The Epstein Files.” She said her opposition to Mr. Trump is far more wide-ranging than concerns about the president’s association with Mr. Epstein, but, she argued, it was the latest example of outrageous behavior.

“I’m just so horrified by the normalization of cruelty, corruption and mass disinformation,” she said. “This is just one tiny plot of the whole thing.”

What Ms. Young said.

PS: Janey Godley is the late Scottish comedian who famously held up a sign that said “Trump is a c**t” outside his golf course during a 2016 visit. (For reasons I don’t really understand, the c-word isn’t considered wildly offensive in the UK.)

Trump in ScotlandPost + Comments (73)

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