We Have Proven Once Again That Ukrainians Are Capable of Achieving Their Goals in Any Situation – Address by the President

13 August 2024 – 20:05

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today, there have already been several reports from Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi about the situation on the front and in the areas of our operation in the Kursk region. We are expanding the area of active operations. The Commander-in-Chief reported that our forces control 74 settlements in the Kursk region. I thank every soldier, every commander who ensures this. Once again, I thank all our guys who are replenishing the exchange fund – this is very important for our state. Hundreds of Russian servicemen have already surrendered, and all of them will receive humane treatment – they did not experience such treatment even in their own Russian army. I had a separate conversation with Minister of Defense Umerov, representatives of the Verkhovna Rada and the Office to ensure that all payments, bonuses, and other things planned for the front will be guaranteed and quickly provided to our warriors – to all defenders who perform combat missions on the territory of the aggressor state. And without any bureaucracy for our warriors. This is a general and obligatory policy of our state – our defenders must be protected from any bureaucratic pressure. Today, at a special meeting, we also discussed new decisions and legislative initiatives that we are preparing for August, and which will definitely strengthen our state, our defense, and our society. And today we also held a meeting of the working group on the energy security point of our Peace Formula. The meeting was attended by representatives of 40 partner countries and international organizations. We are preparing the work – it will be online work, starting in August, at the level of advisors; it will work out a concrete way to ensure energy security. I am grateful to everyone who is helping. And now all of us in Ukraine should act as unitedly and efficiently as we did in the first weeks and months of this war, when Ukraine took the initiative and began to turn the situation to the benefit of our state. Now we have done the exact same thing – we have proven once again that we, Ukrainians, are capable of achieving our goals in any situation – capable of defending our interests and our independence. And we must make full use of our achievements. And we will. We are paying attention to every direction of our state’s defense. To all frontline directions. Donetsk region – Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Kramatorsk directions. Kharkiv region. The South. Special attention is paid to the Kursk region, and thus to the protection of all our border communities nearby. The more the Russian military presence in the border area is destroyed, the closer peace and real security will be for our country. The Russian state must be held accountable for what it has done. And it is.

I am proud of our people!

Glory to Ukraine!

The cost:

🕯️ Oleksandr Mihulya, a MiG-29 pilot from the 40th Tactical Aviation Brigade of the Ukrainian Air Force, was killed during a combat sortie on August 12, 2024. pic.twitter.com/8cvbUVJ5dv

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) August 13, 2024

The reason:

Instead of the thousand words.
🇺🇦 border guard returned home from the frontlines.

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/eYQP80ftrC

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 13, 2024

Some of you may have seen that Germany’s MOD spokesperson stated that once the weapons are turned over to Ukraine and Ukraine can use them as they see fit within the limits of International Humanitarian Law (IHL).

⚡️ Germany has confirmed Ukraine’s right to use German-supplied weapons as it sees fit.

The German Ministry of Defense stated that once the weapons are handed over, they belong to Ukraine, with no restrictions on their use.https://t.co/qFR29MicHR

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) August 12, 2024

This is, apparently, an accurate statement. However, there’s some nuance that I want to highlight.

From United24 Media: (emphasis mine)

Weapons provided by Germany to Ukraine, from the moment of their transfer, become the property of Ukraine and can be used by it as it deems necessary and correct.

This was stated on Monday, August 12, by the spokesman of the German Ministry of Defense Arne Collatz, the correspondent of Ukrinform reports.

The German Ministry of Defense does not question the legality of the reported Ukrainian actions on the territory of Russia’s Kursk region, since international law provides for the possibility of conducting military operations on the territory of the aggressor country for the sake of protecting one’s own state, noted Collatz. Therefore, according to him, this does not provide for any special conditions for the use of weapons provided by the Bundeswehr.

“After handing the German weapons to Ukraine, they already belong to Ukraine, they are Ukrainian weapons… There are no obstacles, so Ukraine is free to use them as it decides,” the officer said, adding that Ukraine is obliged to comply with international law.

Collatz clarified that the use of long-range weapons is a different, political issue, but this is not the case.

The deputy spokesman of the Federal Government, Wolfgang Büchner, for his part, said that Berlin is intensively consulting with its closest allies and with the government in Kyiv regarding the “specific weapons systems” used by Ukraine.

More at the link.

To sum up, the German position is still yes, but…

Latvia:

+500 drones for Ukraine from Latvia.
Thank you for your unwavering support!
🇺🇦🤝🇱🇻 https://t.co/Znk7jM0lFj

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) August 13, 2024

Here’s the machine translation of the Latvian tweet:

The next drone pack is ready! Around 500 drones manufactured in Latvia will provide support
🇺🇦 for Ukrainians in various combat missions.
#DroneCoalition
#StandWithUkraine

Kursk Oblast, Russia:

We now have an idea of some of Ukraine’s strategic objectives with the Kursk offensive:

I am constantly in touch with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, receiving reports on the frontline situation and our operations in the Kursk region. Despite the difficult and intense battles, our forces continue to advance in the Kursk region, and our state’s “exchange fund”… pic.twitter.com/5BUdEJWbcr

— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) August 13, 2024

I am constantly in touch with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, receiving reports on the frontline situation and our operations in the Kursk region. Despite the difficult and intense battles, our forces continue to advance in the Kursk region, and our state’s “exchange fund” is growing.

74 communities are under Ukrainian control, where inspections and stabilization measures are being carried out. The development of humanitarian solutions for these territories continues.

I am grateful to our warriors for their heroic service.

Preparations for our next steps continue.

The “exchange fund” that President Zelenskyy is referring to are the Russian POWs that the Ukrainians have taken. One of Ukraine’s strategic objectives is stockpiling, for lack of a better term, Russian POWs that can then be exchanged for Ukrainian POWs and other Ukrainians that were taken prisoner and are being held by Russia.

Challenge for Kyiv’s leaders now, as the Kursk incursion enters week 2, is deciding whether potential benefits of pressing on justify risks of deploying more troops and resources urgently needed on the eastern front, where Russia has made steady gains.https://t.co/LteSTykwZ1 @FT

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 13, 2024

The Financial Times has the details:

Ukrainian forces sought to solidify their gains in newly seized Russian territory on Tuesday after capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers as Kyiv’s brazen incursion entered its second week.

The shock offensive has swiftly gained significant ground in the Kursk region, embarrassing President Vladimir Putin and lifting the spirits of a war-weary army that has been fighting on its heels for much of the past year.

Deep State, a Ukrainian analytical group that works closely with the defence ministry, said the country’s forces had “advanced in Sudzha and captured Guyevo . . . and fully entrenched themselves in Goncharovka”.

Ukraine’s commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrsky on Tuesday evening said his country’s troops had advanced by up to 3km in different directions in Kursk region, taking another 40 sq km and that they were holding 74 settlements.

Ukraine has also captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, according to videos published by military brigades and verified by the Financial Times, to hold as prisoners of war who could be swapped for their own troops in Russian captivity. A series of such swaps have already taken place.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday expressed gratitude to “each of our units that replenish the exchange fund for us, for Ukraine”.

“Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home,” he said, hinting the incursion would strengthen Ukraine’s hand in any potential talks with Russia to end the war.

The challenge for Ukraine’s leaders now is deciding whether the potential benefits of pressing on justify the risk of deploying more troops and resources urgently needed on the eastern front, where Russia has made steady gains.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defence minister and chair of the Centre for Defence Strategies, a Kyiv think-tank, said Ukraine should “either . . . press further or hold” the territory it has taken, “depending on risks” being constantly evaluated.

Kyiv’s operation is unprecedented in the 10 years that Russia has been at war with Ukraine, and marks the largest foreign incursion into Russia since the German army stormed in during the second world war.

The scale of Russia’s security failure has prompted rare, candid discussions in Moscow. Alexei Smirnov, the governor of Kursk region, told Putin on Monday that Ukraine controlled 28 settlements after entering 12km past the border over a 40km-wide stretch.

Putin abruptly cut him off, saying this was a matter for the military and ordering him to focus on the “socio-economic situation”.

Zelenskyy on Monday said the operation was also designed to alleviate constant Russian attacks on Ukraine’s neighbouring Sumy region, which on Monday night included drone strikes.

Western military aid has more steadily flowed to Ukrainian units on the frontline since a long-stalled package worth $60bn was approved by the US Congress in April, but Kyiv’s army remains outgunned and outmanned by Russia.

In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have pressed dangerously close to the garrison city of Pokrovsk and strategic towns of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and Niu-York.

Deep State’s map of the front line showed much of Niu-York under Russian control on Tuesday. Ukrainian soldiers who fought there before joining the Kursk operation told the FT they expected Niu-York to fall in the coming days.

In Donetsk region, the Kursk fight has been met with a mix of elation and frustration.

“I’m glad our boys are having success in Kursk,” said a senior Ukrainian officer on the frontline in Donetsk region. “We still have a hot fight here. I hope [our commander-in-chief] Syrsky remembers this.”

Much more at the link.

Ukrainian military moving through the center of the Plekhovo village, Kursk region. At 0:10 some locals shout “Glory to Ukraine” from the distance. pic.twitter.com/XlF3sya6Oc

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 13, 2024

Here’s another assessment from the Blackbird Group’s Emil Kastehelmi:

The Kursk offensive, situation update.

The operation continues. Ukrainians have expanded their area of control, pushing north towards Lgov and east towards Belitsa.

We had to modify some map visualization styles to better represent the situation. 1/

Part of the Ukrainian focus seems to have shifted to the southeastern part of the AO, to the Belitsa direction.

Ukrainians have likely entered several villages between Belitsa and the state border. There are some uncertainities, as there’s very little material from here. 2/ 

A Ukrainian APC detachment managed to go as far as to the village of Giri, next to Belitsa.

However, they suffered significant losses and likely had to retreat. Belitsa and the immediate surroundings are most likely still under Russian control. 3/ 

The town of Sudzha is likely mostly, if not completely, under Ukrainian control.

In Korenevo and the nearby villages, the Russians are still actively defending. Ukrainians are close, but there’s no indication they would have entered the town with a larger force. 4/ 

Ukrainian groups are also maneuvering on the northern side of the AO. It’s unclear how deep they are able to penetrate, but the Russians don’t seem to have a very solid defence line there yet.

Still, Lgov is a very long way to go, if Ukraine wants to capture it. 5/ 

Ukraine holds the initiative. There’s still a possibility Ukraine opens up a new direction to support the current effort.

There have been various attacks over the border in several places in Kursk and Belgorod oblasts, but nothing very major yet. 6/ 

Even though Ukraine has made tactical progress in many places, the general situation in Kursk hasn’t changed very much in the recent days. Battles are still being fought in the area of the tactically important towns of Sudzha and Korenevo. 7/ 

While the Russians don’t seem to be very organized yet, they have been able to somewhat control the situation. Ukraine should have the ability to gain more ground, especially if it’s ready to tolerate heavier risks and commit more troops to the fight. 8/ 

In the near future, I’ll analyse the possible goals and scenarios more, as the Kursk offensive progresses.

Our team at @Black_BirdGroup continues to monitor the situation. Our interactive map can be found here. 9/9

The War in UkraineMap depicting the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, as analysed by Black Bird Grouphttps://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/The-War-in-Ukraine/091194

Serhii Prutskykh, call sign “Kum” [“Godfather”], is one of the authors of a video with residents of the Kursk region speaking to Ukrainian soldiers in Ukrainian.

He said that residents of Kursk region complain that electricity and gas disappear when Russian troops withdraw from… https://t.co/KElrmzSCR6 pic.twitter.com/6KaMqj4GSZ

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 13, 2024

Serhii Prutskykh, call sign “Kum” [“Godfather”], is one of the authors of a video with residents of the Kursk region speaking to Ukrainian soldiers in Ukrainian.

He said that residents of Kursk region complain that electricity and gas disappear when Russian troops withdraw from different areas. Ukrainians are helping people whenever possible by bringing water and food.

📹: Radio Liberty

Here’s Rob Lee with a description of what’s going on along the

Russia also made incremental gains on the Kupiansk front and seized a foothold in Kostyantynivka, north east of Vuhledar. pic.twitter.com/FwNipEM4Ud

— Rob Lee (@RALee85) August 13, 2024

The Kharkiv front:

The “Hartia” unit took part in repelling Russian assault on the Kharkiv front this morning. 5 tanks were destroyed and damaged, four dozen infantry were neutralized:

“On August 13, at 6 a.m., Russians attempted to attack the position of the 13th bBrigade of the National Guard of… pic.twitter.com/xHdxsXkLi8

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 13, 2024

The “Hartia” unit took part in repelling Russian assault on the Kharkiv front this morning. 5 tanks were destroyed and damaged, four dozen infantry were neutralized:

“On August 13, at 6 a.m., Russians attempted to attack the position of the 13th bBrigade of the National Guard of Ukraine in the direction of Pylne-Lyptsi and Pylne-Hlyboke. The Hartia unit detected the attack in a time and confidently repelled the assault, inflicting heavy losses on the enemy.

Russian tank attack consisted of two columns of 6 tanks, equipped with massive protection against FPV. Each tank carried a landing force of 8-10 infantrymen. The first column of 6 tanks moved to the positions of the 13th Brigade of the NGU.

Russians did not manage to reach the front edge of our defense. The fighters of the brigade inflicted a powerful ateikes with all available means, stopped and destroyed the column.

As a result of the confident and determined actions of the “Hartia” servicemen and the quality management of the battle, 4 tanks from the enemy column were destroyed, another tank was damaged.”

https://t.me/khartiia/858

The Vuhledar-Novomykhailivka front:

72nd and 79th Brigade of Ukraine repel Russian attack on the Vuhledar-Novomykhailivka front. Russian losses: 3xBMP-2; 6xUnknown BMP; 1xBMP-3; 3xMT-LB; 1xT-80BV.https://t.co/ONtgXTyY1Ahttps://t.co/bEdg7dZ9Vf pic.twitter.com/bmEKb9c2KT

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) August 13, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

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Open thread!

It Is Only Fair to Destroy Russian Terrorists Where They Are – Address by the President

12 August 2024 – 19:49

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

The most important things for today. I held a meeting of the Staff. There was a report by Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi. On the frontline situation and all key defense areas. As well as the operation in the Kursk region – General Syrskyi reported that about a thousand square kilometers in the Kursk region are under our control. These are, in particular, the areas from which the Russian army launched strikes on our Sumy region. For today and since June 1, there have been almost 2100 shellings of the Sumy region’s territory. Therefore, our operations are purely a security matter for Ukraine, the liberation of the border area from the Russian military. I thank all our soldiers, sergeants and officers for their courage and for the efficiency of their actions. Of course, I want to express special gratitude to each of our units that replenish the “exchange fund” for us, for Ukraine. It is a matter of principle for us to return all our people from Russian captivity. And today, at the meeting of the Stuff, the structures involved in the exchanges – the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, the Security Service of Ukraine and the Ministry of Internal Affairs – were instructed to communicate as actively as possible with the relatives of Ukrainian captives. To explain to them transparently how the lists for the exchange are formed, who can really be returned now. In general, they were instructed to present a clear strategy for the return of our people from Russian captivity. At the next meeting, there should be a relevant report. I also very much expect that the Minister of Defense and all our Ukrainian diplomats will work as actively as possible with our partners on long-range capabilities for Ukraine – we need appropriate permissions from our partners to use long-range weapons. This is something that can significantly advance the just end of this war, as well as save thousands of Ukrainian lives from Russian terror. It is only fair to destroy Russian terrorists where they are, where they launch their strikes from. Russian military airfields, Russian logistics. We see how useful this can be for bringing peace closer. Russia must be forced into peace if Putin wants to continue waging war so badly. At the next meeting, the Minister of Defense of Ukraine and representatives of the diplomatic service should present a relevant list of steps regarding long-range capabilities. At today’s meeting, the Government officials also presented a report on our economic capabilities and our production. We must act in such a way that our Ukrainian production receives the necessary support no matter what. The Government was instructed to increase the share of Ukrainian production in public procurement, and these should be long-term contracts for 5-10 years. We will definitely do it.

And a few other things.

Today I held a meeting with the U.S. Senate delegation. Senators Graham and Blumenthal – they represent both parties. I thanked America for supporting our defense; and it is crucial that Ukrainians and Americans are truly victorious in this our defense of normal life and people’s freedom. We discussed what exactly is needed to bring this war to its end, and to bring it to a just end. I explained in detail our need for long-range capabilities.

Today, I also held a meeting with our international experts – the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Office. We have thoroughly planned meetings and negotiations for the second half of August and September. We know how to strengthen Ukraine and what can help us achieve justice.

We see how Russia really moves in the times of Putin: 24 years ago, there was the Kursk disaster – the symbolic beginning of his rule; and now we can see what the end for him is. And it is also Kursk. The disaster of his war. This always happens to those who despise people and any rules. Russia brought war to others, and now it is coming home. Ukraine has always wished only for peace, and we will definitely ensure peace.

I thank everyone who helps us! Glory to all those who fight, who work for Ukraine!

Glory to Ukraine!

Reminder 👇 pic.twitter.com/KPfaE3tfeG

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) August 12, 2024

Latest: Ukrainian commander in chief of the armed forces Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi tells Zelensky and his top government and national security officials in this video, “As of now about 1,000 square kilometers of Russian territory has been taken under control.” pic.twitter.com/VkABaWnptO

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) August 12, 2024

Exactly on the anniversary of the Kursk submarine disaster, Zelensky officially announces the Kursk operation, now in its 8th day. pic.twitter.com/HE3aiPIyBW

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 12, 2024

It’s 24 yrs since the Kursk submarine sank

The disaster had all the traits of Putin’s rule: instinctive dishonesty, wariness of the West & chilling disregard for human life

23 men survived the blast only to suffocate as Russia 1st covered up the disaster then bungled the rescue

— Sarah Rainsford (@sarahrainsford) August 12, 2024

Ukrainian forces in Russia soon encountered a Russian unit “sitting in the forest, drinking coffee. Then our Stryker drives right into their table.

“We killed many of them on the first day,” he said. “Because they were unarmed and didn’t expect us.”https://t.co/CcVmm1DpBE

— max seddon (@maxseddon) August 12, 2024

From The Financial Times: (emphasis mine)

As Volodymyr prepared to enter Russian territory, adrenaline ran through his veins. It was not lost on him that 81 years ago, another battle in Russia’s Kursk region marked a turning point for Europe.

He and the other soldiers of the 82nd air assault brigade listened to their commander’s instructions: eyes open, move swiftly and keep your country in your thoughts. Then, after a short prayer and a battle cry of “Glory to Ukraine!” they set out to invade Russia — the first foreign army to do so since the second world war.

“We entered Russian territory for the first time at 1pm on Tuesday [August 6],” Volodymyr said. “We were among the first to enter there.”

To his astonishment, his unit faced no resistance as their eight-wheeled, 20 tonne US Stryker fighting vehicle stormed across the border in broad daylight.

They soon encountered a Russian unit “sitting in the forest, drinking coffee at a table”, Volodymyr recalled. “Then our Stryker drives right into their table.

“We killed many of them on the first day,” he said. “Because they were unarmed and didn’t expect us.”

Not wanting to end up like their comrades, he added, “dozens” of stunned Russian soldiers simply laid down their weapons and surrendered.

Over the next six days, the fear felt by many of the thousands of Ukrainian troops taking part in this audacious operation yielded to exhilaration. They advanced quickly — by 5km-10km a day — seizing several villages, part of a railway line and a key gas transit point. They began hastily digging positions and preparing for Russian reinforcements to arrive.

But to their surprise, Russian troops did not appear, at least not in the manner that they expected. Powerful glide bombs were launched from Russian jets, which wiped out some Ukrainian troops and valuable western-provided equipment. Lancet X-winged suicide drones came barrelling towards them. But the Ukrainians pressed on.

“It was a bit difficult at first but then it got easier,” said Roman, another soldier in Volodymyr’s unit.

On Friday, however, their Stryker was hit by a Russian rocket-propelled grenade. The driver suffered a concussion but everyone survived, thanks to the vehicle’s thick layer of armour. Unable to drive it further, they towed it back across the border.

When the Financial Times met the crew on Sunday, just 5km inside Ukraine, Volodymyr, Roman and two other soldiers were taking the damaged vehicle apart to see what could be used as spare parts for other Strykers before sending it to a US base in Germany for repairs.

As with the Russians, the US and German governments — two of Ukraine’s largest military and financial supporters — said they had not been informed in advance about the Ukrainian incursion.

Wolfgang Büchner, a German government spokesperson, on Monday said the operation had been “prepared with great secrecy and without consultation” from Berlin. “Everything points to a spatially restricted deployment,” he added.

The FT spoke to more than a dozen soldiers on condition that their surnames not be published for security reasons.

“Our mood is good. Morale is high,” said Serhiy, a paratrooper from the 80th air assault brigade, sipping an energy drink on a road leading to Kursk.

As he spoke, explosions reverberated from the front line and a Ukrainian fighter jet flew at low altitude on its way back from an attack on Russian positions.

Much more at the link.

Russia has admitted to losing 28 settlements in the Kursk region, covering an area 12 km deep and 40 km wide. This came out during a meeting on the “situation in the regions bordering Ukraine,” led by Putin. Why the long faces, huh? pic.twitter.com/Cz8ggblWkM

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) August 12, 2024

Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of the Kursk region, tells Putin that Ukraine has captured 28 settlements since its surprise offensive began last week. More than 121,000 people have fled border areas. pic.twitter.com/cOGXHBVh1B

— max seddon (@maxseddon) August 12, 2024

A Ukrainian Warrior recorded a video from (reportedly) the center of Sudzha, Kursk region of Russia, and reported that the city is completely controlled by the AFU. pic.twitter.com/9LNY5iB9mU

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 12, 2024

Reportedly, this is Daryino, Kursk region.

📹: 225 Separate Assault Brigade pic.twitter.com/So4VqIGYMr

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) August 12, 2024

⚡️ The Security Service of Ukraine has documented attempts by Russian special services to exploit the situation in the Kursk Region by falsely accusing Ukrainian defenders of war crimes.https://t.co/pPIWxagI20

— UNITED24 Media (@United24media) August 12, 2024

United24 Media has the details:

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has documented attempts by Russian special services to exploit the situation in the Kursk Region by falsely accusing Ukrainian defenders of war crimes. “The Russian side is creating and disseminating various fabrications and misinformation that have no basis in reality,” the statement says.

The SBU warns that Russian special services may soon stage crimes, particularly against civilians in the Kursk Region, to falsely blame Ukraine for these acts.

“These informational and psychological operations by Russia are largely a response to their inability to effectively counter the offensive actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces,” the statement reads.

The SBU emphasized that such efforts are in vain and will neither hinder the Armed Forces’ operations nor sway the opinion of Ukraine’s international partners.

“The Ukrainian Defense Forces have demonstrated to the world their strict adherence to the rules and customs of warfare, including their treatment of Russian prisoners of war and the civilian population.”

Here’s the Carnegie Endowment’s Dara Massicot’s assessment of how Russia is responding to Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk.

Russia begins its response to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch: 🧵

Russia has declared its defense operation to be a “counter-terrorist operation” (KTO in Russian). This is a domestic operation and the FSB and Rosgvardia have roles along with the military. This is what the war in Chechnya was called from 1999 until it ended./2 

Putin has instructed the FSB (+ its border troops) and Rosgvardia to defend the borders and assist this operation. He also told the military today that their main task is driving out Ukrainian forces from Russian territory and countering Ukrainian recon and sabotage groups /3 

Who is responsible for what in Kursk? FSB Border troops and Rosgvardia have responsibility for the border and ensuring its defense. For the military: Kursk is located in Moscow Military District, but the troops forward deployed IVO Ukraine belong to the Leningrad MD. /4

The entirety of the area was formerly the Western Military District (2010-24). Russia decided to split it up in March-April 2024 to cope with NATO expansion. It named two commanders: Lapin (LEMD) and Kozovlev (MOMD). / 5

The Operational Group of Forces North received a name change and upgrade about 1-2 weeks before it attacked Kharkiv in May. Prior to May it was a territorial defense group. So for the past 3 months it’s been transitioning from a defensive to offensive orientation, meaning /6 

..that this Russian Op Group was much weaker than the others: from May – Aug it had a major reorganization, a new commander, and attacked Kharkiv early. It’s MOD units are now bogged down in Kharkiv and that offensive is not making progress. / 7 

Someone in Ukraine knew where to press. The AFU attacked a weak spot (Kursk) of the weakest Op Group. A C2 scramble between FSB border guards, Akhmat fighters, and any MOD forces that could rally ensued in week 1. /8 

Russia has experience in creating a combined C2 structure that involves internal security agencies and the military from its experience in the second Chechen war. In the 90s, a joint command was established in what was then the North Caucasus MD HQ. /9
rand.org/content/dam/ra…

I raise this because Bortnikov and Gerasimov worked with this specific C2 arrangement in Chechnya. While today’s situation is much different, they remember how to work together. Implementation is a different matter of course, but I note the experience. /10 

I haven’t seen a KTO headquarters established yet. Who could lead it? All military district commanders are dual hatted as operational group commanders and their forces are engaged. MOD options could be: Lapin, Kozovlev, Nikiforov, Gerasimov. /11 

It’s Lapin’s AOR, but Op Group North is weak. The territory is Moscow MD, but Kozovlev and many of his forces are in eastern Ukraine. Nikiforov is Ground Forces commander and former op group commander, his name is circulating online. Gerasimov also given the stakes/12 

Rosgvardia’s tasks will be to set up cordons, roadblocks, and other barriers. FSB border guards in the area have been taken prisoner already, to include conscripts , a very politically sensitive issue for Putin. /13 

FSB assets will be doing recon and trying to sweep up AFU teams, and interrogation. Russian forces are already taking small numbers of AFU teams as prisoner. Here I worry about what comes next because the FSB uses horrible torture methods. /14 

Russia’s MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) is also now engaging with evacuations of towns. Russia is showing videos of some armor moving and eventually I would anticipate more helicopter, VKS assets. They will probably use artillery especially if the towns are emptied. /15 

This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures. /16 

AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins. /17 

This war has left Russia’s borders weak, the army engaged in Ukraine and not immediately available to defend border regions, and FSB border troops not supported. The Russian system’s instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk. /end 

And here’s Tatarigami’s and his Frontelligence Insight Team’s most recent assessment of Russia’s manpower situation.

The Myth of Endless Manpower: Russian Soldiers’ Average Age Approaches 38 as Trends Persist

🧵Thread by Frontelligence Insight:

1/ Russian gains in Ukraine are often attributed to their superior numbers in resources and manpower, fostering the perception of an endless manpower

2/ Our recent research shows that increasing recruitment challenges in Russia affect not only the quantity but also the quality of recruits. The average age of Russians killed in Ukraine is nearing 38 and rising. This trend could significantly impact the war’s course. 

3/ But first, let’s discuss the current recruitment numbers. According to an investigation by the Conflict Intelligence Team and iStories, 345400 one-time payments were made for signing contracts in 2023. This closely aligns with the 30,000 monthly recruits reported by the GUR.

4/ As of August 1, contract signers began receiving nearly doubled one-time federal payments of 400,000 rubles, along with additional payments from local authorities. In places like Moscow, payments can go up to ~2 million rubles. This is done to offset growing recruitment issues 

5/ But what about the quality of these recruits?

According to our findings, between February 2022 and May 2024, the average age of Russian soldiers killed in action increased from 30.2 in early 2022 to 37.8 by July 2024

6/ To obtain this number, we analyzed a dataset of 23,584 records from Russian obituary posts on social media, which included both dates of birth and dates of death. This dataset comes from the Poteru dot net project, which collects obituary posts from the VK social network 

7/ Before assessing the implications, we need to place the current situation in the context of other wars. To provide a meaningful comparison, we can look at the Vietnam War, given the reliable data available from that period. 

8/ According to the Combat Area Casualty File data from the Vietnam Helicopter Pilots Association, based on 58,148 death records, the average age of a U.S. servicemember KIA during the Vietnam War was 23.11 years: a 15-year age gap compared to Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

9/ Individuals signing contracts come from a civilian pool. Although exact data on their fitness is lacking, the World Health Organization reports that pre-war life expectancy at birth for Russian males was 65.6 years, with a healthy life expectancy of 58.2 years. 

10/ It suggests that the Russian government not only has to offer significantly higher payments to recruit individuals but also ends up with recruits who may be less fit for combat roles, either partially or fully. They are more likely to suffer casualties from chronic illnesses 

11/ Although Ukrainian demographics are anything but better than Russian ones, the extensive focus on Ukrainian manpower issues has fostered a perception that Ukraine is doomed due to seemingly endless Russian human resources and high recruitment numbers 

12/ Our research has demonstrated that this perception is misleading and indicates that Russia’s ability to conduct large-scale offensive operations with territorial gains, based on a manpower advantage, is not as sustainable as it seems in the long run. 

13/ While the data presented may still contain some inaccuracies, errors, or potential duplicates, the trend is quite consistent with demographic findings from other investigations and metrics reported by investigative groups like Mediazona and iStories 

14/ More information on our data and sources is available on our website. If you would like to support further investigations like this, please consider making a donation. We rely solely on public donations and subscriptions for our funding:

Tatarigami_UA is All Source Public IntelligenceSatellite imagery and other expenses https://buymeacoffee.com/frontelligence

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

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Yekatrinburg, Russia:

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