We Are Preparing Decisions that Will Ensure a More Reliable Passage of the Heating Season — the Address by the President of Ukraine

19 June 2024 – 19:06

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, there are two more signatories to the Peace Summit Communiqué, and the representation of the American continent, particularly Latin America, has grown. It is now official: the Organization of American States, which unites countries from both North and South America. As well as the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda. We consider the entire world to be equal, and this is our ideological difference from Russia in terms of international relations. We respect every nation and count on every voice when it comes to cooperation among nations. That is how the UN Charter is organized — so that all states matter. Putin, on the other hand, wants only himself, or someone of his choosing, to matter. This is Russia’s typical colonial view of the world, and we — along with all our partners — must break it. And the format of the Peace Summit, the format of our Communiqué, the format of our future preparatory work for the Second Summit will ensure the fair treatment of every nation, every state, and certainly Ukraine. I thank everyone who is helping. Our team is working to attract even more signatories and to maximize the work of the groups on the points of the Peace Formula. And among the first such groups, we plan to launch one on the energy sector — we need to restore real energy security in all its aspects and overcome Russia’s approach to energy, to energy resources as a weapon. This applies to protection against Russian energy terror as well. The world is also capable of helping with this. We are preparing the first steps in this direction for July.

Also today, I held a meeting with Government officials, the Office team and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council on the current situation in the energy sector. We are preparing solutions that will ensure a more reliable passage of the heating season and give people more opportunities to get through this extremely difficult period, in terms of energy shortages and outages. I gave instructions to provide all the details of what the state can do, and the details of the specific energy sector areas where we need to continue engaging our partners.

Today, I also met with the Marshal of the Sejm of Poland, and one of the key topics of our conversation was the protection of Ukraine — our people and our energy sector — from Russian terrorist attacks. We discussed the key needs — the things that are needed now, and the ways in which Poland can help. Of course, we also discussed the entire bilateral agenda of our countries, as well as diplomatic measures that can increase our strength in the region. I thank Poland for choosing to stand with Ukraine in this time of war.

And our warriors. I am grateful to everyone who is now in combat, on combat posts, on combat missions. All the units of our Defense and Security Forces.

Today, I will commend the warriors of the National Guard of Ukraine who are defending our country in the Kharkiv direction. The 2nd assault unit of the Omega Special Purpose Center of the National Guard — thank you, warriors! The 3rd Spartan operational brigade of the National Guard — especially Soldier Bohdan Livak and Junior Sergeant Bohdan Sydor. Thank you! The 13th Khartiia brigade of the National Guard — Senior Soldier Ruslan Fedchun. Thank you! Our border guards, the Hart brigade — Sergeant Vitaliy Lysyi. Chop and Lviv border guard detachments — Senior Soldier Bohdan Mahotskyi and Senior Sergeant Denys Lanhazov. The Revenge brigade — the units of which are fighting in the Lyman, Siversk and Bakhmut directions — Soldier Andriy Kyrylchuk and Chief Sergeant Vladyslav Mysko. Thank you, guys, and all your brothers-in-arms!

In addition, today I signed two decrees on presenting state awards to our warriors from the National Guard of Ukraine and the State Border Guard Service, the National Police and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. 445 state awards. 175 of them are posthumous. Ukraine will always remember its heroes and will be grateful to all those who defended our statehood and our independence. Ukraine must prevail!

Glory to Ukraine!

Denmark:

Denmark announced the 19th military aid package for Ukraine.

The package includes additional material to support Denmark’s F-16 donation, financial support for the Ukrainian defense industry, and donations from the Danish Armed Forces holdings.

A total of DKK 1.2 billion has… pic.twitter.com/6uynWxZfii

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 19, 2024

Denmark announced the 19th military aid package for Ukraine.

The package includes additional material to support Denmark’s F-16 donation, financial support for the Ukrainian defense industry, and donations from the Danish Armed Forces holdings.

A total of DKK 1.2 billion has been reserved for the most recent two donation packages via acquisitions by the Ukrainian defense industry.

We are grateful to our Danish partners for their unwavering support. Aiding the Ukrainian defense industry is an important contribution to the development of Europe’s common security. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰
@Forsvarsmin

Switzerland, sort of:

U.S.-made missiles for the Patriot air defense system manufactured for Switzerland are to be delivered to Ukraine despite contractual obligations, the Swiss outlet Blick reported on June 19, citing undisclosed sources.https://t.co/7iUVIdBi27

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 19, 2024

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

U.S.-made missiles for the Patriot air defense system manufactured for Switzerland are to be delivered to Ukraine despite contractual obligations, the Swiss outlet Blick reported on June 19, citing undisclosed sources.

According to Blick, Bern has an order totaling $340 million with Washington for the PAC-3 variant of the missile.

Sources told the outlet that the U.S. has decided to delay delivery to Switzerland and send them instead to Ukraine, which is in dire need of the weapons to protect against Russian aerial attacks.

The PAC-3 missile is the most advanced used by the Patriot air defense system and is effective against ballistic missiles. Each missile costs $4.1 million.

They are in high demand as European countries seek to bolster their own air defenses amid rising tensions with Russia.

A German-led initiative is seeking to get more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on June 11 announcing 68 were on their way to Kyiv.

The decision comes as Ukraine faces increased Russian attacks on its population centers and infrastructure.

Pistorius emphasized the urgency of strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses, referencing his recent visit to Odesa, where he observed the devastating effects of Russian missile strikes. He also unveiled an aid package valued at 500 million euros ($542 million).

Berlin launched the initiative in April amid Kyiv’s increasingly dire need for air defenses, facing heavy Russian aerial attacks against population centers and the energy grid.

A number of countries have already backed the initiative since then, including Belgium, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, and others.

On June 13, the U.S. denied reports that the U.S. is planning to deliver another Patriot battery to Ukraine.

Finland, sort of:

Russia has moved 80% of its forces from the Finnish border to Ukraine. Russian bases near Finland are almost empty.

Truth is, Russia has never really been worried about NATO approaching its borders. It’s all about invading Ukraine and grabbing territory.

📷 yle pic.twitter.com/RIPMRPI463

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 19, 2024

Also, from The Kyiv Independent:

Russia has moved the vast majority of its ground forces previously stationed near Finland to the war in Ukraine, the Finnish public broadcaster Yle reported on June 19, citing an undisclosed Finnish military intelligence source.

These revelations stand in contrast to previous claims by Russia on reinforcing its troops near the Finnish border in response to the Nordic country’s entry into NATO.

“On average, 80% of the equipment and soldiers have been transferred to the war in Ukraine,” the high-ranking military intelligence source told Yle.

According to the source, the situation is similar in other Russian regions except for Moscow Oblast. This concerns mainly the Ground Forces, as air defenses, the Air Force, and the Navy remain relatively well-manned, Yle reported.

The numbers of soldiers stationed in bases near the Finnish borders sometimes fluctuate as Russia draws new conscripts, but “all contract soldiers have been sent to do real work,” the source said.

After Russian professional contractors suffered heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia began to partially mobilize its population to fill up the ranks.

Satellite imagery obtained by Yle confirmed certain changes. For example, dozens of units and equipment stationed in a military base near Petrozavodsk (a city some 200 kilometers or 125 miles from the Russian border) in June 2023 disappeared as of May 2024.

At the same time, new facilities appeared, likely for servicing equipment damaged in war or accommodations for conscripts undergoing basic training, Yle wrote.

A number of NATO officials have warned that NATO should prepare itself for a possible open confrontation with Russia in the coming years. The Finnish intelligence estimates it can take between three to five years for the Russian military to recuperate from its losses in Ukraine.

The tensions between the military bloc and Moscow have been mounting since the West threw its support behind Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.

Finland entered NATO in April 2023, extending the NATO-Russian border by roughly 1,340 kilometers (830 miles).

NATO:

⚡️CNN: Allies debating what commitment to give Ukraine on NATO membership.

The United States and allies are debating what to commit to Ukraine’s NATO membership at the upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, CNN reported on June 19.

U.S. officials are reportedly facing…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 19, 2024

⚡️CNN: Allies debating what commitment to give Ukraine on NATO membership.

The United States and allies are debating what to commit to Ukraine’s NATO membership at the upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, CNN reported on June 19.

U.S. officials are reportedly facing criticism from European countries for not willing to go as far as countries closer to Russia would prefer.

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-allies-debating-what-commitment-to-give-ukraine-on-nato-membership/

From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)

The United States and allies are debating what to commit to Ukraine’s NATO membership at the upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, CNN reported on June 19. U.S. officials are reportedly facing criticism from European countries for not willing to go as far as countries closer to Russia would prefer.

Kyiv did not receive the much-desired invitation nor a firm deadline to join the alliance during last year’s 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, even though NATO took steps to tighten cooperation. Ukrainian officials have voiced hope that the Washington meeting, scheduled for July 9-11, will bring a more definite signal.

According to CNN, US and German officials have proposed giving Ukraine a “bridge” to NATO at next month’s summit rather than an “irreversible path” that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg specified earlier this year and is currently favored by the UK and numerous Eastern and Central European countries.

A senior American official told CNN that the Biden Administration does not think the word “irreversible” would earn the support of the entire alliance, particularly Hungary. The U.S. reportedly believes it is close to an agreement with allies on the language.

One Central European diplomat said that “most Central Eastern European countries are disappointed by the Biden administration’s ambiguity and procrastination” in outlining a concrete path forward for Ukraine’s entrance into NATO.

A second official said that European allies had been directly lobbying the White House to push for a commitment to Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Earlier this year, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that a consensus had not been reached among NATO member states regarding Ukraine’s entrance but that the alliance is “currently working on it.”

Stoltenberg also said that the alliance aims to help Ukraine get as close as possible to NATO standards as part of its integration process, adding that there is “a lot of work ahead.”

“At the same time, we need to make you [Ukraine] as interoperable as possible. And integrate you as much as we can,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, noted that Ukraine will join NATO only after Russia’s full-scale invasion ends. The president hopes that Ukraine’s victory against Russia will help to reach a perfect agreement among all NATO member states.

Leaving aside the Biden administration hesitation, as well as Olaf Scholz’s ongoing interpretation of Hamlet, the solution here is to make things very very clear to Orban. Specifically, that if Hungary does not get in line, then the rest of the alliance will not honor an Article 5 invocation. Additionally, that the other NATO member states will simply dump all the direct their intel communities have collected on Orban as possible without compromising sources and methods and they will ensure that it is released in Hungarian and in such a way that Hungarians can see it.

Quite simply, whenever a NATO member, and especially when the Biden administration or Scholz don’t want to do something they simply use Orban and Hungary as an excuse. It gives them an off the hook card that they play over and over. It is past time to give Orban a dose of reality, which would also remove their own crutch.

I’d also like a pony.

The US:

From our @JakeSullivan46 interview:
US agreement with Ukraine allows Ukraine to fire US weapons into Russia across from Sumy:
“It extends to anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian…

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) June 18, 2024

From our @JakeSullivan46 interview:
US agreement with Ukraine allows Ukraine to fire US weapons into Russia across from Sumy:
“It extends to anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian territory… That’s happened in Kharkiv. We have seen initial indications that Russia has made exploratory moves across in Sumy. And so it would apply there as well.”

Why make a 10-year Bilateral Security Agreement commitment that you don’t know whether the next President will keep?
“In life in general and in democracy in particular, there are never any absolute lock, stock guarantees. Things can change, leaders can change, situations can…

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) June 18, 2024

Why make a 10-year Bilateral Security Agreement commitment that you don’t know whether the next President will keep?
“In life in general and in democracy in particular, there are never any absolute lock, stock guarantees. Things can change, leaders can change, situations can change. All @POTUS can do is set a course and a vision for what is in the United States’ national security interest, what is in the interest of the transatlantic alliance, and what is in the interest of our partnership with Ukraine. And that type of approach has historically served America well. And President Biden is going to stick with that approach for as long as he is president of the United States, which he, of course, expects to be for another 4 years.”

Sullivan seems to have a fundamental lack of understanding regarding the pathologies of liberal democracy in the US and liberal democracy in other places in regards to how interstate relations work in places that don’t have dysfunctional constitutional requirements that negotiated treatments can only become binding treaties when approved by 2/3rds of the unrepresentative US Senate.

If you’re interested, here’s the video of the interview. A lot of it has to do with Israel and Hamas, which are two other things that Sullivan doesn’t really understand either.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), which is basically Britain’s version of the Institute for Defense Analysis, has published an interesting assessment of how to actually build Ukraine’s military capacity and capability. (emphasis mine)

With Russia increasingly pressing its numerical advantage, Ukraine and its partners need to devise a new strategy for strengthening Ukraine’s defence if they are to avoid playing to Russia’s strengths in an attritional conflict.

Despite all the attempts of the West and especially the US to avoid further escalation in the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia is not going to abandon its original plans to destroy Ukraine and is making all possible efforts to achieve this goal. Even colossal losses in personnel and military equipment have not forced Moscow to abandon its goal (as of May 2024, Russian losses amounted to over 500,000 servicemen, over 7,000 tanks, over 14,000 armoured combat vehicles, over 13,000 artillery systems, hundreds of aircraft and helicopters, and dozens of warships). The number of Russian troops located on the territory of Ukraine has increased from 140,000 that participated in the invasion in February 2022 to almost 650,000, with over 2,500 tanks, over 5,000 armoured combat vehicles, and over 3,500 artillery systems. This figure does not include Russian units carrying out aggression against Ukraine from the territory of Russia itself, in particular from the territory of the Bryansk and Belgorod regions.

In the current operation against Kharkiv alone, which was launched by the Russians in May 2024, about 50,000 troops are involved. Fortunately, the Russian operation has not yet been very successful, and has already turned into another large battle for a small Ukrainian town, this time the town of Vovchansk, which is located on the border with Russia. Even so, an attempted new offensive against Kharkiv – Ukraine’s second-largest city with a population of over 1.4 million, located only 30 km from the Russian border – and a possible attack on Sumy, another regional centre 20 km from the border, is undoubtedly a significant escalation, and requires a rethinking of approaches to the war with Russia, both for Ukraine and its allies. Trying to win a war with Russia at the expense of only a symmetrical mass increase is a flawed strategy, given that Russia has a larger number of human reserves (about 30 million people in Russia, compared to about 8 million people in Ukraine), significant stockpiles of weapons and military equipment inherited from the USSR or built by 2022, as well as a developed defence-industrial complex and a powerful mining industry that satisfies its needs for a significant amount of strategic materials. Undoubtedly, Russian models are inferior to Western ones in quality, but Russia is clearly winning the competition with the West in the mass and cheap production of weapons and military equipment.

In such a situation, when achieving a simple numerical advantage over the enemy is impossible, the main priority of the joint efforts of Ukraine and its international partners should be to increase the military effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Full military effectiveness in this context should be understood as the ability to achieve maximum combat power at the expense of resources that are available not only physically, but also politically, and so it is important to focus not only on tactical and operational effectiveness, but also strategic and political effectiveness. Combat power, in turn, is the ability to inflict damage on the enemy in the amount necessary to achieve the goals of the war, while at the same time limiting the damage that the enemy can inflict in response. To assess the current state of the military effectiveness of the AFU, the methodology proposed by Allan Millet, Williamson Murray and Kenneth Watman in 1986 – if adapted to today’s conditions – remains extremely helpful.

The political effectiveness of a military organisation consists of its ability to receive financial support, the provision of weapons and military equipment, and the replenishment of human forces in the volume and quality necessary to eliminate existing threats. For the AFU, this means first of all the ability to convince Ukraine’s international partners both to increase military-technical assistance and to lift restrictions on the supply of certain weapons to Ukraine, as well as restrictions on how they can be used. The political effectiveness of the AFU remains insufficient, as Ukraine’s defence needs are currently only partially met. Since decisions on increasing aid and increasing investment in the defence industry are made by the political leadership of partner countries, which mostly do not have professional military expertise, it is extremely important to involve representatives of the armed forces of these countries in the assessment of Ukraine’s needs in order to confirm the validity of such requests. At the same time, the provision of Ukraine’s defence needs cannot depend exclusively on Western aid. Increasing the political effectiveness of the AFU requires the Ukrainian military to convince the government of Ukraine of the need for unpopular decisions related to mobilisation, as well as searching for new ways of obtaining weapons that would involve direct financial obligations on Ukraine’s part, such as, for example, lend-lease.

The strategic effectiveness of a military organisation comprises its ability to achieve national goals determined by the political leadership through the use of military force. The calculation of the necessary resources also depends on these goals. The AFU are in an extremely difficult situation, as the political leaderships of both Ukraine and its partner countries see these goals in different ways, which negatively affects the ability of the AFU to develop and implement a military strategy aimed at achieving them. The leadership of Ukraine aims to liberate the country’s entire territory. Such a goal is undeniably fair and rational, but it ignores the fact that the liberation of territory does not necessarily mean the end of the war.Since neither Ukraine nor its partners are aiming for the complete defeat and occupation of Russia, even after the liberation of all of Ukraine’s territories, Russia will retain the ability to continue aggression against Ukraine, to conduct military operations from its territory, and to launch missile and bomb attacks on civilian infrastructure. The political leadership of Ukraine’s partner countries, in particular the US, ideally wants to force Russia into negotiations, at which point a decision will be made to end hostilities, but the issue of the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine will not be discussed. Such a goal, despite the fact that it seems more achievable, also does not create the conditions for long-term peace, and will be viewed by Russia as a tactical respite which can be used to restore and build capabilities and plan a new phase of aggression, as was the case with the Minsk agreements.

It is obvious that ending the war with Russia requires reaching such a moment when the aggressor has no ability or desire to continue it and is forced to withdraw troops from the territory of Ukraine with or without concluding a new peace agreement(as happened with the US in Vietnam in 1972 , or with the Soviet Union in Central Europe in the early 1990s). Accordingly, bringing Russia to a state of inability/unwillingness to continue the war should be the basis of a grand strategy that encompasses all means available to Ukraine and its partners, including non-military ones. The military strategy, as the most important part of the grand strategy, should in turn be aimed at inflicting unacceptable damage on Russia through the use of the AFU.

In summary, the biggest obstacle to improving the effectiveness of the AFU is the lack of a clear and agreed-upon grand strategy for winning the war by Ukraine and its partners, as well as a military strategy, which is an integral component of this. This is due, first of all, to a lack of clear political goals accepted by all of Ukraine’s partners, which would ensure not only the liberation of its territory, but also long-term security in Europe. In the absence of such goals, a grand strategy and a general military strategy for victory in this war, the planning of individual operations, the assessment and provision of the needs of the AFU, the development of training programmes and preparation, and the introduction of new tactical techniques can at best support Ukraine’s ability to conduct the war, but not to win it. The lack of a strategy for victory will turn this war into a war of attrition for Ukraine, which completely coincides with Russian interests.

More at the link.

For want of a nail.

Pervomaisk, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Today it was reported about the big explosion in Pervomaisk, Luhansk region. 30km from the frontline. It turned out to be a Russian truck with ammunition. https://t.co/882TEtYc5C pic.twitter.com/DnZvGNWvJF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 19, 2024

Chasiv Yar:

Drone footage showing total destruction in the city of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast. Russo-fascist invaders do not stop attempts to capture the settlement.https://t.co/gSEfQd01tp pic.twitter.com/zZgfyzQ8H0

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 19, 2024

Spectacular detonation of a Russian MT-LB with ammunition. Chasiv Yar direction.https://t.co/ZlAg3Nq3zC pic.twitter.com/e7qdayzbny

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 19, 2024

russians aren’t stopping their assaults of Chasiv Yar, they keep coming and dying.

My friend from one of the brigades defending Chasiv Yar shared this video with me so I can show you their work. he wished to remain anonymous. pic.twitter.com/g8yZBjLjr5

— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) June 19, 2024

Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Until russians came to Vovchansk it was a peaceful town. Now it lays in ruins because russians invaded.

There is almost nothing left, what did russians gain from it?

Why are they doing it?

Please watch the video, it’s not new, it’s from early June, that large white building is… pic.twitter.com/MC1u0CIF2a

— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) June 19, 2024

Until russians came to Vovchansk it was a peaceful town. Now it lays in ruins because russians invaded.

There is almost nothing left, what did russians gain from it?

Why are they doing it?

Please watch the video, it’s not new, it’s from early June, that large white building is completely destroyed now. Destroyed because of russians.

The Karkhiv front:

FPV Drone lands gracefully inside a Russian tank. Kharkiv front. Video by the ‘Birds of Magyar’ unit.

Full: https://t.co/kzu0X5uSwa pic.twitter.com/HVdvxdpKKu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 19, 2024

Madyar’s Birds are still on the hunt!

Kharkiv City:

Met a survivor of the horrific Russian Epicenter bombing in Kharkiv who revisited the scene. His daughter recounted those 19 killed, saying, “It’s too risky to go out as a whole family now. Someone always has to stay home.” pic.twitter.com/lGNL1Cx50P

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 19, 2024

Pyongyang:

War is peace. Slavery is liberty. Occupation is liberation.

pic.twitter.com/wPOettmFeB

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 19, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Murchyk, a little border guard

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/v0TpcVhFGH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 19, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

Запрошую вас у свій день! #песпатрон #дснс

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I invite you to my day! #песпатрон#дснс

Open thread!