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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

You cannot love your country only when you win.

Today in our ongoing national embarrassment…

Too little, too late, ftfnyt. fuck all the way off.

fuckem (in honor of the late great efgoldman)

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

Fucking consultants! (of the political variety)

Keep the Immigrants and deport the fascists!

Republicans are radicals, not conservatives.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

Weird. Rome has an American Pope and America has a Russian President.

We’re watching the self-immolation of the leading world power on a level unprecedented in human history.

New McCarthy, same old McCarthyism.

The fight for our country is always worth it. ~Kamala Harris

This isn’t Democrats spending madly. This is government catching up.

Is it negotiation when the other party actually wants to shoot the hostage?

Fear or fury? The choice is ours.

But frankly mr. cole, I’ll be happier when you get back to telling us to go fuck ourselves.

Hell hath no fury like a farmer bankrupted.

This chaos was totally avoidable.

Republicans are the party of chaos and catastrophe.

You cannot shame the shameless.

Stay strong, because they are weak.

The only way through is to slog through the muck one step at at time.

Accused of treason; bitches about the ratings. I am in awe.

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Thursday Afternoon Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  June 20, 20245:42 pm| 87 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Looks like we could use an open thread.

I got called into the principal’s office by the big dog earlier this week for (mostly) only posting pictures of Henry and ignoring Mr. Bear and Miss Willow.

So I will share these two older pics of Miss Willow now while I hunt down (or take more) photos of Miss Willow.  These show her beautiful stripes better than anything I’ve gotten since.

Medium Cool with BGinCHI – What If? (Mix Tape) 1

Medium Cool with BGinCHI – What If? (Mix Tape)Open thread!

Thursday Afternoon Open ThreadPost + Comments (87)

Supreme Court Decisions at 10 am Eastern

by WaterGirl|  June 20, 202410:04 am| 283 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Supreme Court, Supreme Court Corruption

 1

Some decisions will be announced today (6/20), some tomorrow (6/21).

Holding my breath as I wait.

SCOTUSblog appears to be adding a quick summary as each opinion is released.

*****

Live blogging at The Guardian

.

First case was Moore v. US. This is a big tax case that has implications on the viability of the wealth tax.
7-2 ruling, by Kavanaugh, Thomas and Gorsuch dissent, saying that Congress CAN tax “pass through” entities.

— Elie Mystal (@ElieNYC) June 20, 2024

.

x

Supreme Court Decisions at 10 am EasternPost + Comments (283)

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Summer Solstice

by Anne Laurie|  June 20, 20248:24 am| 165 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Let there be light!
This is Bryn Celli Ddu, a neolithic burial site on Anglesey, Wales, aligned to allow the sun to reach the back of the chamber at daybreak on the Summer Solstice.
May it shine bright on the longest day of the year.#SummerSolstice #folklorethursday #longestday pic.twitter.com/enqnO3J28i

— Mark Rees (@reviewwales) June 20, 2024

The Biden administration swore in the first class of the American Climate Corps, a federal program that is meant to place young people in the clean energy, conservation and climate resilience sectors. https://t.co/kBLAyXfKDV

— NBC News (@NBCNews) June 18, 2024

This is a bill that could actually pass Congress that would further raise the stakes for the 2024 election. It would create 63 new district level judgeships, half in 2025 and half in 2029. Whoever wins in 2024 would get to appoint the 32 new judges for 2025. https://t.co/DdrM0pkVgK

— The Biden Accomplishments Guy (@What46HasDone) June 19, 2024

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The IRS wants to end another major tax loophole for the wealthy and raise $50 billion in the process https://t.co/jnVNMK0bfY

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 17, 2024

Multiple shells (companies), one pea, some assembly required…

… The proposed rule and guidance announced Monday includes plans to essentially stop “partnership basis shifting” — a process by which a business or person can move assets among a series of related parties to avoid paying taxes.

Biden administration officials said after evaluating the practice that there are no economic grounds for these transactions, with Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo calling it “really just a shell game.” The officials said the additional IRS funding provided through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act had enabled increased oversight and greater awareness of the practice.

“These tax shelters allow wealthy taxpayers to avoid paying what they owe,” IRS commissioner Danny Werfel said…

Miles Johnson, a senior attorney adviser and partnership tax specialist at the Tax Law Center at NYU Law, said “these transactions effectively make income disappear from the tax system by creating depreciation deductions or other tax reductions that don’t reflect any true economic cost.”

He said the proposed rule and guidance shows that the IRS wants to stop these sorts of transactions “by eliminating their tax benefits and better identifying them to the IRS as without substance.”

Monday’s announcement is part of the IRS’s ongoing effort to zero in on high-wealth tax cheats who manipulate the tax code or don’t pay their taxes at all…

This is a genuinely good policy and great news! Turns out there *are* companies that profit from "deductions" and Joe Biden's IRS is closing that loophole

That's a major Biden win!https://t.co/zSaX5MHMTt

— The okayest poster there is (@ok_post_guy) June 17, 2024

Crime at near 50-year lows. Unemployment near record lows. Stock market at record highs. Wage growth strong for low earners.

Seems like “go woke” actually means “build a successful country that includes everyone” pic.twitter.com/W01SmrcKPY

— Ramit Sethi (@ramit) June 18, 2024

7-point swing to Biden from March to June in Fox News polling pic.twitter.com/detq0szSzN

— Bill Scher (@billscher) June 19, 2024

Fox News Poll: Biden opens up two point lead https://t.co/OQlouM7mIQ

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 19, 2024

It’s almost as if the Biden campaign has their own polling, analytics, field operation, and has no incentive to telegraph their strategy to win these, or any other voters. https://t.co/9OXWWxvVYY

— Tom Bonier (@tbonier) June 19, 2024

Biden's reelection campaign raises $40 million in five days, including $8 million with Bill Clinton https://t.co/qVHVit3hys

— The Associated Press (@AP) June 18, 2024

Don’t mistake compassion for weakness. From the death, destruction, and global destabilization of two raging wars to his own son’s conviction on gun charges, Biden has proven he (not Donald Trump) is the tough guy in the 2024 race. My latest @bulwarkonline https://t.co/TRGQIyaAhm

— Jill Lawrence (@JillDLawrence) June 12, 2024

Thursday Morning Open Thread: Summer SolsticePost + Comments (165)

Dank Dawn Open Thread: RFK Jr. Is Burning Through His Resources

by Anne Laurie|  June 20, 20245:15 am| 124 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Grifters Gonna Grift, Open Threads, Schadenfreude

Vaxxed ??? https://t.co/fcQTtwDZcG

— J (@OkayHeyJay) June 18, 2024

Per Politico, “RFK Jr. keeps burning through cash”:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s longshot presidential campaign spent two and a half times more than it raised in May, the latest sign of the independent candidate’s cash crunch at a pivotal moment in the race.

His campaign reported just $6.4 million cash on hand at the end of the month, down from $10 million the previous month. That total — and the likelihood that he will not qualify for the first presidential debate next week — represents a major challenge for Kennedy as he continues to work to gain ballot access across the country.

The latest numbers highlight how Kennedy has failed to expand his fundraising base as the general election looms. His running mate, lawyer Nicole Shanahan, could be the campaign’s biggest financial lifeline. But while she has heavily supported the campaign previously, she didn’t put more money in last month.

The $2.5 million Kennedy’s campaign reported raising in May was down from what Kennedy received from donors the previous month, even excluding the $8 million Shanahan put in then. And it was the campaign’s second consecutive month with less than $900,000 in contributions from donors giving less than $200 — a sign that grassroots fundraising, which once seemed like somewhat of a strength of Kennedy’s — has not taken off.

The campaign also reported spending $6.3 million, while netting $1.4 million in new debt — all owed to Gavin de Becker and Associates, a security firm whose principal, De Becker, also has a financial relationship with a Kennedy-backing super PAC…

Shanahan (if you believe the nastier stories about how she acquired her billions) may be a grifter, but she’s not an idiot. She gave RatF*cker Jr a nice (desperately needed) chunk of change to get the VP slot, but I guess he or his fans aren’t doing enough to draw attention to her very serious CAUSES, so… she, at least, understands the ‘sunk cost fallacy’.

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RFK Jr. has developed a pretty devout fan base, making these details about his struggles to auction off time with him all the more eye-popping @brittanyagibson https://t.co/KFM6LZ1Nft pic.twitter.com/WS9isidZjG

— Meryl Kornfield (@MerylKornfield) June 17, 2024

Another Politico joint, from earlier in the week:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign is on financial life support…

Kennedy has tried myriad gimmicks to bring in donations: Months of hawking $10 raffle tickets — Whale watching! The thrill of Falconry! Luxury sunset sailing adventure! — have only resulted in anemic small-dollar donation totals. The campaign has tried to attract larger donations by running online auctions for Kennedy paraphernalia and exclusive perks, but those efforts have never once hit their monthly fundraising goals. The campaign just launched a new play: Paying supporters 15 percent of any funds they help raise.

Without the $10 million cash infusion from his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, the campaign would be in debt.

Even the super PAC supporting Kennedy’s independent presidential bid is straining to expand its Rolodex of potential donors.

“There have been a lot of people who have told me at a very high level — donors, who can really make donations that are meaningful,” Tony Lyons, co-founder of American Values 2024, said in an interview, who “have been very clear that they want to see that Bobby is going to be on the ballot in most or all states, and they want to see polling numbers that are higher.”…

The campaign started with the raffle program in December, offering a whale watching trip in Hawaii with Kennedy and his wife, Cheryl Hines. Its later offerings included a “Rocky Mountain adventure” and a “VIP sailing experience” at sunset with the couple in California. Those raffle tickets were $10 each and aimed at growing grassroots donations — but the campaign’s small-dollar hauls haven’t grown.

In February, it also spun up auctions aimed at bringing in larger-dollar donors with new items every month. In the latest edition, a “personal phone call with Bobby” and a virtual meeting with Shanahan garnered two bids and a single offer, respectively. Several signed posters of Kennedy got zero bids. Three of the four “zip line with Kennedy” prizes went unsold. And an unopened issue of George magazine, published by Kennedy’s late cousin John F. Kennedy Jr., sold for just $550. The “buy now” price was $2,500…

Meanwhile, American Values 2024, the super PAC, could provide outside support to Kennedy’s bid, but instead it is being kept afloat by a single contributor: GOP megadonor Tim Mellon, who has given $25 million — about half of its total.

And the PAC’s second-largest donor, Gavin de Becker, has been using a curious “bridge funding” arrangement that cuts his eye-popping $14 million donation down to just $2.35 million after refunds. Super PAC donors who back Trump and Biden are pledging tens of millions to super PACs without taking big refunds…

There’s a certain lack of sympathy among the people who’ve been exposed to previous RFK Jr ‘campaigns…

Vaccine specialist Dr. Paul Offit says RFK Jr. is directly responsible for the deaths of 83 people in Samoa, most of whom were young children, due to his role in depressing vaccination rates on the island. @DecodingFoxNewspic.twitter.com/QICzTnBYIS

— The Intellectualist (@highbrow_nobrow) June 16, 2024

Dank Dawn Open Thread: RFK Jr. Is Burning Through His ResourcesPost + Comments (124)

Wednesday Night Open Thread: It’s Debatable!

by Anne Laurie|  June 19, 202410:19 pm| 115 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat

Join CNN as President Biden and former President Trump meet for their first highly anticipated debate of this election season. Thursday, June 27 at 9p ET on CNN and streaming on Max. pic.twitter.com/TUDfIFiG4B

— CNN (@CNN) June 18, 2024

Chris Cillizza unable to find work in this economy: Advantage America https://t.co/sCF6j7VbXs

— First Elden Lord, Joe Biden (@TonyMoonbeam) June 18, 2024

These were debate rules agreed upon on day one. Only a surprise because no one absorbed that Trump got bumrushed into the debate, agreed to things he normally never would have. Always been a decent chance he won't show up. At least he'll start pitching nonsense reasons to bail.

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 17, 2024

Wednesday Night Open Thread:  It's Debatable! 1

(Jack Ohman via GoComics.com)

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I like the early debate… Biden knows this and right wing media isn't going to be able to edit out his insane ramblings in real time. So then there will be four months of ads of Trump saying gibberish and Biden speaking clearly and concisely, even with a speech impediment.

— Mack's Cats (@maxkatz515) June 19, 2024

The Economist — “Will the Trump-Biden showdowns be an institution’s last gasp, or a new start?”:

“WE AIN’T DEAD yet,” Frank Fahrenkopf insisted last month on “The Daily Show”, an American TV programme. Jon Stewart, the host, looked sceptical. Mr Fahrenkopf leads the Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-partisan body whose sole purpose is to organise match-ups every four years. This year his group will have nothing to do with them. In May, after signalling that he might not participate at all, Joe Biden challenged Donald Trump to debate him—on Mr Biden’s terms. Mr Trump agreed. The presidential candidates will face off twice. Unusually, news networks, rather than the CPD, will host the encounters. They will take place months earlier than they normally would. The first is scheduled for June 27th. How will these new arrangements change presidential debates?…

Over the years the CPD’s format became standardised: it put on three 90-minute debates, divided into six 15-minute segments, during each general-election year. Third-party candidates were eligible only if they appeared on enough ballots to win the electoral college and polled at 15% or higher.

But both Republicans and Democrats have complained about the CPD in recent years. The parties have wanted debates to be held earlier in the year, to account for a rise in early voting, which surged during the pandemic. Mr Trump’s campaign criticised the CPD for setting this year’s first debate for September 16th; ten states will have begun mailing out ballots by then. In truth, candidates have another reason to favour early debates: it gives them more time to recover from gaffes. Republicans also claimed that the commission was “biased” in its selection of moderators: one, chosen for a debate in 2020 that did not take place because Mr Trump had covid, had interned for Mr Biden decades before.

The conditions that Mr Biden proposed last month reveal his worries. In the first debate four years ago Mr Trump constantly interrupted both the moderator and Mr Biden. This month CNN, the host, will mute microphones when the candidates are not entitled to speak. There will be no studio audience, which will thwart Mr Trump’s impulse to whip up sympathetic crowds. CNN is adhering to the CPD’s standard for third-party candidates. If ABC, the host of September’s debate, does too, then Robert Kennedy junior, who is on the ballot in six states so far and polling well, could plausibly qualify.

The CPD rejects the campaigns’ complaints over timing. It insists that its proposed date would affect only a small number of voters, while giving independent candidates enough time to secure a place on ballots. It also argues that the debates agreed to by Mr Biden and Mr Trump, which will only be disseminated by the host network, will reach a smaller audience. Still, Mr Fahrenkopf conceded that if the campaigns “can reach some agreement…and [the debate] happens”, that is good news. For now the Biden and Trump camps, divided on everything else, seem to have struck a deal. Whether future campaigns will do so is up for debate.

Wednesday Night Open Thread:  It's Debatable!

(Joel Pett via GoComics.com)

 
Barring some kind of surprise upset, RFK Jr will not be at CNN’s debate, and IMO this is better for everyone, including RFK Jr. His biggest fans are pretty pissed / pissy about that, per the Washington Post:

Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has repeatedly claimed that he appears on enough statewide ballots to qualify for next week’s debate between President Biden and Donald Trump and has threatened to sue CNN for not letting him on the stage.

But a Washington Post survey of state election officials found Kennedy is not on the ballot in several states where he has claimed he is — and he will not reach the requirement by Thursday’s deadline to qualify for the debate. The rules of CNN’s debate indicate candidates must appear on enough ballots nationwide to earn the requisite 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency, along with earning 15 percent support in four national polls.

Election officials in Utah, Delaware, Oklahoma, Michigan and Tennessee have confirmed Kennedy will be on the ballot. Additionally, CNN has counted California and Hawaii, where Kennedy is the presumptive nominee of minor parties where the states have either not certified him or received paperwork. Those states add up to 100 electoral votes. Kennedy also has not yet met the polling requirement for the debate, though could if a qualifying poll is released before Thursday.

Kennedy intended to get on all 50 states’ ballots quickly as he sought to gain national attention that would come from sharing a debate stage with the two major-party candidates. Kennedy has pointed to his exclusion as evidence that he has been treated unfairly by the parties and the media…

Kennedy’s campaign has argued that Biden and Trump similarly should not qualify for the stage under CNN’s rules because they have not yet officially been selected as the presidential nominee by their respective parties. The Republican and Democratic nominating conventions are in July and August, respectively. But CNN has said that because Trump and Biden are their respective parties’ presumptive nominees, and major-party candidates don’t have to petition states for ballot access, both satisfy the electoral college criteria for the debate, according to CNN…

Third-party candidates would typically be advantaged by the late summer deadlines for ballot access, allowing them time to continue to organize even after major-party candidates are nominated, said Bernard Tamas, a political science professor at Valdosta State University in Georgia and author of “The Demise and Rebirth of American Third Parties.” Kennedy has said he has strategically delayed some petitions to avoid challenges.

“His problem is, for the debate, it’s so fast that it’s not set up for him to get on,” Tamas said. “It’s just a moment that’s not working for him.”…

Speaking of pissy, the MAGAts aren’t happy either:

First of all you little cockroach, that president Biden agreed to debate a convicted felon is demeaning and for you to suggest Biden’s a drug user is f**king disgusting. Did you forget drugs were shared like candy under Trump, who because of his drug dependencey wears diapers? pic.twitter.com/jAfdaFQ1Ja

— Marlene Robertson (@marlene4719) June 19, 2024

Mar-A-Lago court jester Haberman sounds pretty discouraged, IMO…

The New York Times' @maggieNYT has new reporting on how Trump is preparing for next week's CNN debate. pic.twitter.com/4eterirVbi

— Anderson Cooper 360° (@AC360) June 20, 2024

Best ways for Trump to run away from the debate like a little bitch

— Josh Marshall (@joshtpm) June 18, 2024

You forgot “My probation officer won’t let me.”

— Lauren Marinaro (@lauren_marinaro) June 18, 2024

Wednesday Night Open Thread:  It's Debatable! 2

(Mike Luckovich via GoComics.com)

Wednesday Night Open Thread: It’s Debatable!Post + Comments (115)

Raising Funds for 2024: NC Black Alliance Youth Engagement

by WaterGirl|  June 19, 20248:45 pm| 42 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Political Action, Political Fundraising, Targeted Political Fundraising 2023-24, This Fight Is For Everything

Update at 9:15 am on Thursday morning:

You guys are amazing!  

We have only 875.00 left on our $3,000 Angel match from Total Lurker!


We can make a difference in North Carolina!  It’s as easy as 1-2-3.

  1. Trump won NC by ~ 75k votes, just 1.5% of the 5,500,000 votes cast.
  2. NC now has 16 electoral votes, similar to GA (16) and MI (15).
  3. The Republican candidate for governor is bat shit crazy.

And we have a new match!  A lurker came forward offering a match, so we are starting a new $1,000 $3,000 Angel match right now.  Up to $100 per person, add a comment or send me an email message in order to be matched.

Thank you, Total Lurker!


Donate

This can pay off in 2024, and it’s an investment in the future.

The NC Black Alliance Youth Voter Engagement Program has a ten-year track record of registering, inspiring, training and engaging students at North Carolina’s 11 Historically Black Colleges and Universities.   With our help, they’re taking their engagement and registration template on the road to reach students of color outside of the HBCU environment.

  • Our goal for June is $30,000.
  • NC Black Alliance found an external match for us!
  • Any donation amount will matched.
  • When we have a Balloon Juice matching angel, and you tell us about the donation in the comments or by email to WaterGirl at balloon-juice.com, your donation is matched 4x!

What are the stakes?

  • Targeted campuses are in state legislative swing districts.
  • Potential to take back 2 Black Democratic seats that went Republican in 2022.
  • All it takes is a Democratic gain of one seat in both the state House and Senate to bust the Republican’s veto-proof supermajority

Read about the plan:  NC Black Alliance Youth Voter Engagement Program Summary Document  (pdf)

In case you missed the two previous posts:

It’s Up To Us Now, Next Stop, North Carolina!

It’s Up To Us – Kicking Off Our North Carolina Fundraising!

One more thing you can do!

Please consider sharing the thermometer link and link to this post on your social media – and if you’re on a blog that doesn’t raise funds like we do, feel free to share there, too.

Out-raise them.  Out-organize them.  Out-strategize them.  OUT VOTE THEM.

 

Raising Funds for 2024: NC Black Alliance Youth EngagementPost + Comments (42)

War for Ukraine Day 847: Air Raid Alerts Going Up as Cruise Missiles Are Reported Inbound

by Adam L Silverman|  June 19, 20247:47 pm| 32 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Quick housekeeping note: Rosie is still doing very well on her third day after her third chemo treatment of this second round of chemo. Thank you all, again, for the good thoughts, well wishes, prayers, and donations.

Air raid alerts are up over almost all of southern and central Ukraine. Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts just went up.

Air Raid Alert Map for Ukraine at 6:47 PM EDT on 19 June 2024. All of eastern, central, and southern Ukraine is under air raid alert and the map indicates Russian air force inbound from western Russia.

Cruise missile launches reported in the direction of Ukraine! pic.twitter.com/4E5Kkt9RaV

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 19, 2024

The Russians hit Kharkiv with more glide bombs earlier today.

Explosion reported in Kharkiv! Russian troops just struck the city with a glide bomb!

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) June 19, 2024

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Are Preparing Decisions that Will Ensure a More Reliable Passage of the Heating Season — the Address by the President of Ukraine

19 June 2024 – 19:06

Dear Ukrainians!

Today, there are two more signatories to the Peace Summit Communiqué, and the representation of the American continent, particularly Latin America, has grown. It is now official: the Organization of American States, which unites countries from both North and South America. As well as the island nation of Antigua and Barbuda. We consider the entire world to be equal, and this is our ideological difference from Russia in terms of international relations. We respect every nation and count on every voice when it comes to cooperation among nations. That is how the UN Charter is organized — so that all states matter. Putin, on the other hand, wants only himself, or someone of his choosing, to matter. This is Russia’s typical colonial view of the world, and we — along with all our partners — must break it. And the format of the Peace Summit, the format of our Communiqué, the format of our future preparatory work for the Second Summit will ensure the fair treatment of every nation, every state, and certainly Ukraine. I thank everyone who is helping. Our team is working to attract even more signatories and to maximize the work of the groups on the points of the Peace Formula. And among the first such groups, we plan to launch one on the energy sector — we need to restore real energy security in all its aspects and overcome Russia’s approach to energy, to energy resources as a weapon. This applies to protection against Russian energy terror as well. The world is also capable of helping with this. We are preparing the first steps in this direction for July.

Also today, I held a meeting with Government officials, the Office team and the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council on the current situation in the energy sector. We are preparing solutions that will ensure a more reliable passage of the heating season and give people more opportunities to get through this extremely difficult period, in terms of energy shortages and outages. I gave instructions to provide all the details of what the state can do, and the details of the specific energy sector areas where we need to continue engaging our partners.

Today, I also met with the Marshal of the Sejm of Poland, and one of the key topics of our conversation was the protection of Ukraine — our people and our energy sector — from Russian terrorist attacks. We discussed the key needs — the things that are needed now, and the ways in which Poland can help. Of course, we also discussed the entire bilateral agenda of our countries, as well as diplomatic measures that can increase our strength in the region. I thank Poland for choosing to stand with Ukraine in this time of war.

And our warriors. I am grateful to everyone who is now in combat, on combat posts, on combat missions. All the units of our Defense and Security Forces.

Today, I will commend the warriors of the National Guard of Ukraine who are defending our country in the Kharkiv direction. The 2nd assault unit of the Omega Special Purpose Center of the National Guard — thank you, warriors! The 3rd Spartan operational brigade of the National Guard — especially Soldier Bohdan Livak and Junior Sergeant Bohdan Sydor. Thank you! The 13th Khartiia brigade of the National Guard — Senior Soldier Ruslan Fedchun. Thank you! Our border guards, the Hart brigade — Sergeant Vitaliy Lysyi. Chop and Lviv border guard detachments — Senior Soldier Bohdan Mahotskyi and Senior Sergeant Denys Lanhazov. The Revenge brigade — the units of which are fighting in the Lyman, Siversk and Bakhmut directions — Soldier Andriy Kyrylchuk and Chief Sergeant Vladyslav Mysko. Thank you, guys, and all your brothers-in-arms!

In addition, today I signed two decrees on presenting state awards to our warriors from the National Guard of Ukraine and the State Border Guard Service, the National Police and the State Emergency Service of Ukraine. 445 state awards. 175 of them are posthumous. Ukraine will always remember its heroes and will be grateful to all those who defended our statehood and our independence. Ukraine must prevail!

Glory to Ukraine!

Denmark:

Denmark announced the 19th military aid package for Ukraine.

The package includes additional material to support Denmark’s F-16 donation, financial support for the Ukrainian defense industry, and donations from the Danish Armed Forces holdings.

A total of DKK 1.2 billion has… pic.twitter.com/6uynWxZfii

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 19, 2024

Denmark announced the 19th military aid package for Ukraine.

The package includes additional material to support Denmark’s F-16 donation, financial support for the Ukrainian defense industry, and donations from the Danish Armed Forces holdings.

A total of DKK 1.2 billion has been reserved for the most recent two donation packages via acquisitions by the Ukrainian defense industry.

We are grateful to our Danish partners for their unwavering support. Aiding the Ukrainian defense industry is an important contribution to the development of Europe’s common security. Together, we are stronger.
🇺🇦🤝🇩🇰
@Forsvarsmin

Switzerland, sort of:

U.S.-made missiles for the Patriot air defense system manufactured for Switzerland are to be delivered to Ukraine despite contractual obligations, the Swiss outlet Blick reported on June 19, citing undisclosed sources.https://t.co/7iUVIdBi27

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 19, 2024

Here are the details from The Kyiv Independent:

U.S.-made missiles for the Patriot air defense system manufactured for Switzerland are to be delivered to Ukraine despite contractual obligations, the Swiss outlet Blick reported on June 19, citing undisclosed sources.

According to Blick, Bern has an order totaling $340 million with Washington for the PAC-3 variant of the missile.

Sources told the outlet that the U.S. has decided to delay delivery to Switzerland and send them instead to Ukraine, which is in dire need of the weapons to protect against Russian aerial attacks.

The PAC-3 missile is the most advanced used by the Patriot air defense system and is effective against ballistic missiles. Each missile costs $4.1 million.

They are in high demand as European countries seek to bolster their own air defenses amid rising tensions with Russia.

A German-led initiative is seeking to get more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, with German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on June 11 announcing 68 were on their way to Kyiv.

The decision comes as Ukraine faces increased Russian attacks on its population centers and infrastructure.

Pistorius emphasized the urgency of strengthening Ukraine’s air defenses, referencing his recent visit to Odesa, where he observed the devastating effects of Russian missile strikes. He also unveiled an aid package valued at 500 million euros ($542 million).

Berlin launched the initiative in April amid Kyiv’s increasingly dire need for air defenses, facing heavy Russian aerial attacks against population centers and the energy grid.

A number of countries have already backed the initiative since then, including Belgium, Denmark, Canada, the Netherlands, Norway, and others.

On June 13, the U.S. denied reports that the U.S. is planning to deliver another Patriot battery to Ukraine.

Finland, sort of:

Russia has moved 80% of its forces from the Finnish border to Ukraine. Russian bases near Finland are almost empty.

Truth is, Russia has never really been worried about NATO approaching its borders. It’s all about invading Ukraine and grabbing territory.

📷 yle pic.twitter.com/RIPMRPI463

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 19, 2024

Also, from The Kyiv Independent:

Russia has moved the vast majority of its ground forces previously stationed near Finland to the war in Ukraine, the Finnish public broadcaster Yle reported on June 19, citing an undisclosed Finnish military intelligence source.

These revelations stand in contrast to previous claims by Russia on reinforcing its troops near the Finnish border in response to the Nordic country’s entry into NATO.

“On average, 80% of the equipment and soldiers have been transferred to the war in Ukraine,” the high-ranking military intelligence source told Yle.

According to the source, the situation is similar in other Russian regions except for Moscow Oblast. This concerns mainly the Ground Forces, as air defenses, the Air Force, and the Navy remain relatively well-manned, Yle reported.

The numbers of soldiers stationed in bases near the Finnish borders sometimes fluctuate as Russia draws new conscripts, but “all contract soldiers have been sent to do real work,” the source said.

After Russian professional contractors suffered heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia began to partially mobilize its population to fill up the ranks.

Satellite imagery obtained by Yle confirmed certain changes. For example, dozens of units and equipment stationed in a military base near Petrozavodsk (a city some 200 kilometers or 125 miles from the Russian border) in June 2023 disappeared as of May 2024.

At the same time, new facilities appeared, likely for servicing equipment damaged in war or accommodations for conscripts undergoing basic training, Yle wrote.

A number of NATO officials have warned that NATO should prepare itself for a possible open confrontation with Russia in the coming years. The Finnish intelligence estimates it can take between three to five years for the Russian military to recuperate from its losses in Ukraine.

The tensions between the military bloc and Moscow have been mounting since the West threw its support behind Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.

Finland entered NATO in April 2023, extending the NATO-Russian border by roughly 1,340 kilometers (830 miles).

NATO:

⚡️CNN: Allies debating what commitment to give Ukraine on NATO membership.

The United States and allies are debating what to commit to Ukraine’s NATO membership at the upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, CNN reported on June 19.

U.S. officials are reportedly facing…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) June 19, 2024

⚡️CNN: Allies debating what commitment to give Ukraine on NATO membership.

The United States and allies are debating what to commit to Ukraine’s NATO membership at the upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, CNN reported on June 19.

U.S. officials are reportedly facing criticism from European countries for not willing to go as far as countries closer to Russia would prefer.

https://kyivindependent.com/cnn-allies-debating-what-commitment-to-give-ukraine-on-nato-membership/

From The Kyiv Independent: (emphasis mine)

The United States and allies are debating what to commit to Ukraine’s NATO membership at the upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, CNN reported on June 19. U.S. officials are reportedly facing criticism from European countries for not willing to go as far as countries closer to Russia would prefer.

Kyiv did not receive the much-desired invitation nor a firm deadline to join the alliance during last year’s 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius, even though NATO took steps to tighten cooperation. Ukrainian officials have voiced hope that the Washington meeting, scheduled for July 9-11, will bring a more definite signal.

According to CNN, US and German officials have proposed giving Ukraine a “bridge” to NATO at next month’s summit rather than an “irreversible path” that NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg specified earlier this year and is currently favored by the UK and numerous Eastern and Central European countries.

A senior American official told CNN that the Biden Administration does not think the word “irreversible” would earn the support of the entire alliance, particularly Hungary. The U.S. reportedly believes it is close to an agreement with allies on the language.

One Central European diplomat said that “most Central Eastern European countries are disappointed by the Biden administration’s ambiguity and procrastination” in outlining a concrete path forward for Ukraine’s entrance into NATO.

A second official said that European allies had been directly lobbying the White House to push for a commitment to Ukraine’s NATO membership.

Earlier this year, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that a consensus had not been reached among NATO member states regarding Ukraine’s entrance but that the alliance is “currently working on it.”

Stoltenberg also said that the alliance aims to help Ukraine get as close as possible to NATO standards as part of its integration process, adding that there is “a lot of work ahead.”

“At the same time, we need to make you [Ukraine] as interoperable as possible. And integrate you as much as we can,” he said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in turn, noted that Ukraine will join NATO only after Russia’s full-scale invasion ends. The president hopes that Ukraine’s victory against Russia will help to reach a perfect agreement among all NATO member states.

Leaving aside the Biden administration hesitation, as well as Olaf Scholz’s ongoing interpretation of Hamlet, the solution here is to make things very very clear to Orban. Specifically, that if Hungary does not get in line, then the rest of the alliance will not honor an Article 5 invocation. Additionally, that the other NATO member states will simply dump all the direct their intel communities have collected on Orban as possible without compromising sources and methods and they will ensure that it is released in Hungarian and in such a way that Hungarians can see it.

Quite simply, whenever a NATO member, and especially when the Biden administration or Scholz don’t want to do something they simply use Orban and Hungary as an excuse. It gives them an off the hook card that they play over and over. It is past time to give Orban a dose of reality, which would also remove their own crutch.

I’d also like a pony.

The US:

From our @JakeSullivan46 interview:
US agreement with Ukraine allows Ukraine to fire US weapons into Russia across from Sumy:
“It extends to anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian…

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) June 18, 2024

From our @JakeSullivan46 interview:
US agreement with Ukraine allows Ukraine to fire US weapons into Russia across from Sumy:
“It extends to anywhere that Russian forces are coming across the border from the Russian side to the Ukrainian side to try to take additional Ukrainian territory… That’s happened in Kharkiv. We have seen initial indications that Russia has made exploratory moves across in Sumy. And so it would apply there as well.”

Why make a 10-year Bilateral Security Agreement commitment that you don’t know whether the next President will keep?
“In life in general and in democracy in particular, there are never any absolute lock, stock guarantees. Things can change, leaders can change, situations can…

— Nick Schifrin (@nickschifrin) June 18, 2024

Why make a 10-year Bilateral Security Agreement commitment that you don’t know whether the next President will keep?
“In life in general and in democracy in particular, there are never any absolute lock, stock guarantees. Things can change, leaders can change, situations can change. All @POTUS can do is set a course and a vision for what is in the United States’ national security interest, what is in the interest of the transatlantic alliance, and what is in the interest of our partnership with Ukraine. And that type of approach has historically served America well. And President Biden is going to stick with that approach for as long as he is president of the United States, which he, of course, expects to be for another 4 years.”

Sullivan seems to have a fundamental lack of understanding regarding the pathologies of liberal democracy in the US and liberal democracy in other places in regards to how interstate relations work in places that don’t have dysfunctional constitutional requirements that negotiated treatments can only become binding treaties when approved by 2/3rds of the unrepresentative US Senate.

If you’re interested, here’s the video of the interview. A lot of it has to do with Israel and Hamas, which are two other things that Sullivan doesn’t really understand either.

The Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), which is basically Britain’s version of the Institute for Defense Analysis, has published an interesting assessment of how to actually build Ukraine’s military capacity and capability. (emphasis mine)

With Russia increasingly pressing its numerical advantage, Ukraine and its partners need to devise a new strategy for strengthening Ukraine’s defence if they are to avoid playing to Russia’s strengths in an attritional conflict.

Despite all the attempts of the West and especially the US to avoid further escalation in the Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia is not going to abandon its original plans to destroy Ukraine and is making all possible efforts to achieve this goal. Even colossal losses in personnel and military equipment have not forced Moscow to abandon its goal (as of May 2024, Russian losses amounted to over 500,000 servicemen, over 7,000 tanks, over 14,000 armoured combat vehicles, over 13,000 artillery systems, hundreds of aircraft and helicopters, and dozens of warships). The number of Russian troops located on the territory of Ukraine has increased from 140,000 that participated in the invasion in February 2022 to almost 650,000, with over 2,500 tanks, over 5,000 armoured combat vehicles, and over 3,500 artillery systems. This figure does not include Russian units carrying out aggression against Ukraine from the territory of Russia itself, in particular from the territory of the Bryansk and Belgorod regions.

In the current operation against Kharkiv alone, which was launched by the Russians in May 2024, about 50,000 troops are involved. Fortunately, the Russian operation has not yet been very successful, and has already turned into another large battle for a small Ukrainian town, this time the town of Vovchansk, which is located on the border with Russia. Even so, an attempted new offensive against Kharkiv – Ukraine’s second-largest city with a population of over 1.4 million, located only 30 km from the Russian border – and a possible attack on Sumy, another regional centre 20 km from the border, is undoubtedly a significant escalation, and requires a rethinking of approaches to the war with Russia, both for Ukraine and its allies. Trying to win a war with Russia at the expense of only a symmetrical mass increase is a flawed strategy, given that Russia has a larger number of human reserves (about 30 million people in Russia, compared to about 8 million people in Ukraine), significant stockpiles of weapons and military equipment inherited from the USSR or built by 2022, as well as a developed defence-industrial complex and a powerful mining industry that satisfies its needs for a significant amount of strategic materials. Undoubtedly, Russian models are inferior to Western ones in quality, but Russia is clearly winning the competition with the West in the mass and cheap production of weapons and military equipment.

In such a situation, when achieving a simple numerical advantage over the enemy is impossible, the main priority of the joint efforts of Ukraine and its international partners should be to increase the military effectiveness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Full military effectiveness in this context should be understood as the ability to achieve maximum combat power at the expense of resources that are available not only physically, but also politically, and so it is important to focus not only on tactical and operational effectiveness, but also strategic and political effectiveness. Combat power, in turn, is the ability to inflict damage on the enemy in the amount necessary to achieve the goals of the war, while at the same time limiting the damage that the enemy can inflict in response. To assess the current state of the military effectiveness of the AFU, the methodology proposed by Allan Millet, Williamson Murray and Kenneth Watman in 1986 – if adapted to today’s conditions – remains extremely helpful.

The political effectiveness of a military organisation consists of its ability to receive financial support, the provision of weapons and military equipment, and the replenishment of human forces in the volume and quality necessary to eliminate existing threats. For the AFU, this means first of all the ability to convince Ukraine’s international partners both to increase military-technical assistance and to lift restrictions on the supply of certain weapons to Ukraine, as well as restrictions on how they can be used. The political effectiveness of the AFU remains insufficient, as Ukraine’s defence needs are currently only partially met. Since decisions on increasing aid and increasing investment in the defence industry are made by the political leadership of partner countries, which mostly do not have professional military expertise, it is extremely important to involve representatives of the armed forces of these countries in the assessment of Ukraine’s needs in order to confirm the validity of such requests. At the same time, the provision of Ukraine’s defence needs cannot depend exclusively on Western aid. Increasing the political effectiveness of the AFU requires the Ukrainian military to convince the government of Ukraine of the need for unpopular decisions related to mobilisation, as well as searching for new ways of obtaining weapons that would involve direct financial obligations on Ukraine’s part, such as, for example, lend-lease.

The strategic effectiveness of a military organisation comprises its ability to achieve national goals determined by the political leadership through the use of military force. The calculation of the necessary resources also depends on these goals. The AFU are in an extremely difficult situation, as the political leaderships of both Ukraine and its partner countries see these goals in different ways, which negatively affects the ability of the AFU to develop and implement a military strategy aimed at achieving them. The leadership of Ukraine aims to liberate the country’s entire territory. Such a goal is undeniably fair and rational, but it ignores the fact that the liberation of territory does not necessarily mean the end of the war.Since neither Ukraine nor its partners are aiming for the complete defeat and occupation of Russia, even after the liberation of all of Ukraine’s territories, Russia will retain the ability to continue aggression against Ukraine, to conduct military operations from its territory, and to launch missile and bomb attacks on civilian infrastructure. The political leadership of Ukraine’s partner countries, in particular the US, ideally wants to force Russia into negotiations, at which point a decision will be made to end hostilities, but the issue of the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine will not be discussed. Such a goal, despite the fact that it seems more achievable, also does not create the conditions for long-term peace, and will be viewed by Russia as a tactical respite which can be used to restore and build capabilities and plan a new phase of aggression, as was the case with the Minsk agreements.

It is obvious that ending the war with Russia requires reaching such a moment when the aggressor has no ability or desire to continue it and is forced to withdraw troops from the territory of Ukraine with or without concluding a new peace agreement(as happened with the US in Vietnam in 1972 , or with the Soviet Union in Central Europe in the early 1990s). Accordingly, bringing Russia to a state of inability/unwillingness to continue the war should be the basis of a grand strategy that encompasses all means available to Ukraine and its partners, including non-military ones. The military strategy, as the most important part of the grand strategy, should in turn be aimed at inflicting unacceptable damage on Russia through the use of the AFU.

In summary, the biggest obstacle to improving the effectiveness of the AFU is the lack of a clear and agreed-upon grand strategy for winning the war by Ukraine and its partners, as well as a military strategy, which is an integral component of this. This is due, first of all, to a lack of clear political goals accepted by all of Ukraine’s partners, which would ensure not only the liberation of its territory, but also long-term security in Europe. In the absence of such goals, a grand strategy and a general military strategy for victory in this war, the planning of individual operations, the assessment and provision of the needs of the AFU, the development of training programmes and preparation, and the introduction of new tactical techniques can at best support Ukraine’s ability to conduct the war, but not to win it. The lack of a strategy for victory will turn this war into a war of attrition for Ukraine, which completely coincides with Russian interests.

More at the link.

For want of a nail.

Pervomaisk, Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

Today it was reported about the big explosion in Pervomaisk, Luhansk region. 30km from the frontline. It turned out to be a Russian truck with ammunition. https://t.co/882TEtYc5C pic.twitter.com/DnZvGNWvJF

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 19, 2024

Chasiv Yar:

Drone footage showing total destruction in the city of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast. Russo-fascist invaders do not stop attempts to capture the settlement.https://t.co/gSEfQd01tp pic.twitter.com/zZgfyzQ8H0

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 19, 2024

Spectacular detonation of a Russian MT-LB with ammunition. Chasiv Yar direction.https://t.co/ZlAg3Nq3zC pic.twitter.com/e7qdayzbny

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 19, 2024

russians aren’t stopping their assaults of Chasiv Yar, they keep coming and dying.

My friend from one of the brigades defending Chasiv Yar shared this video with me so I can show you their work. he wished to remain anonymous. pic.twitter.com/g8yZBjLjr5

— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) June 19, 2024

Vovchansk, Kharkiv Oblast:

Until russians came to Vovchansk it was a peaceful town. Now it lays in ruins because russians invaded.

There is almost nothing left, what did russians gain from it?

Why are they doing it?

Please watch the video, it’s not new, it’s from early June, that large white building is… pic.twitter.com/MC1u0CIF2a

— ✙ Constantine ✙ (@Teoyaomiquu) June 19, 2024

Until russians came to Vovchansk it was a peaceful town. Now it lays in ruins because russians invaded.

There is almost nothing left, what did russians gain from it?

Why are they doing it?

Please watch the video, it’s not new, it’s from early June, that large white building is completely destroyed now. Destroyed because of russians.

The Karkhiv front:

FPV Drone lands gracefully inside a Russian tank. Kharkiv front. Video by the ‘Birds of Magyar’ unit.

Full: https://t.co/kzu0X5uSwa pic.twitter.com/HVdvxdpKKu

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) June 19, 2024

Madyar’s Birds are still on the hunt!

Kharkiv City:

Met a survivor of the horrific Russian Epicenter bombing in Kharkiv who revisited the scene. His daughter recounted those 19 killed, saying, “It’s too risky to go out as a whole family now. Someone always has to stay home.” pic.twitter.com/lGNL1Cx50P

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) June 19, 2024

Pyongyang:

War is peace. Slavery is liberty. Occupation is liberation.

pic.twitter.com/wPOettmFeB

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) June 19, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

First, some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense.

Murchyk, a little border guard

📹: @DPSU_ua pic.twitter.com/v0TpcVhFGH

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) June 19, 2024

And a new video from Patron’s official TikTok.

@patron__dsns

Запрошую вас у свій день! #песпатрон #дснс

♬ оригінальний звук – Patron_official

Here’s the machine translation of the caption:

I invite you to my day! #песпатрон#дснс

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 847: Air Raid Alerts Going Up as Cruise Missiles Are Reported InboundPost + Comments (32)

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