In June the Path to a Just Peace Can Begin – Address by the President

28 April 2024 – 18:25

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

We are not losing a single day for Ukraine – I have just spoken with Hakeem Jeffries, the leader of the Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. I thanked him and all the congressmen for their support of our country and personal leadership in advancing a new package of assistance to Ukraine. We are interacting with our partners at all levels to achieve the level of efficiency in assistance that is needed not only to hold our positions, but also to disrupt Russia’s war plans. We are still waiting for the supplies promised to Ukraine – we expect exactly the volume and content of supplies that can change the situation on the battlefield in the interests of Ukraine. And it is important that every agreement we have reached is implemented – everything that will yield practical results on the battlefield and boost the morale of everyone on the frontline. In a conversation with Mr. Jeffries, I emphasized the need for Patriot systems, they are needed as soon as possible.

Also, our teams, Ukraine and the United States, are currently working on a bilateral security agreement, and we are already working on a specific text. Our goal is to make this agreement the strongest of all. We are discussing the specific foundations of our security and cooperation. We are also working on fixing specific levels of support for this year and for the next ten years, including armed support, financial, political, and joint arms production. The agreement should be truly exemplary and reflect the strength of American leadership. I am grateful to both our team and the team of the American side for the progress in drafting the agreement.

Next week there will be quite a lot of international communication, both public and non-public. We remember what this year should bring us in the political sense, in particular the result with the European Union. Ukraine has fulfilled all the necessary conditions for the actual start of accession negotiations, and now it is up to the EU side to fulfill its obligations.

We continue preparations for the first inaugural Peace Summit in June, and our team, along with the teams of our key partners, is working to make the Summit truly global. We can say for sure that all continents will be represented – different parts of the world, different views on global development. But all of them share the same recognition that the UN Charter and basic international conventions are binding documents for every country in the world, including a country like Russia, where madness prevails. The world majority must force Russia into peace – and it can do this. It is in June that the path to a just peace can begin.

We are also preparing for the NATO Summit to be held this summer. A strong political signal is needed – the Alliance should not be afraid of its own strength or shy away from its own foundations – every country that shares common values and is willing to actually defend them deserves an invitation to join the Alliance.

And our unwavering gratitude to the warriors – to all the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine, to each and every one of them at the front, at combat posts, on combat missions. Kharkiv region, Donetsk direction, all the southern directions. I am grateful to every soldier and commander who is doing everything to destroy the occupiers – this is needed the most.

According to the results of the week, the warriors of the 57th and 58th separate motorized infantry brigades, as well as the warriors of the 35th separate marine brigade deserve special gratitude. I would also like to mention our border guards, both those who are fighting on the frontline alongside everyone else, and those who are protecting our border communities and destroying Russian subversive groups. Special gratitude goes to all the servicemen of the Dozor special forces unit of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine. Also, to the warriors of the Revenge brigade – and I would like to thank Staff Sergeant Oleksandr Meteyko, Senior Sergeants Serhiy Nesterenko and Sviatoslav Ihnatiuk for their special results. The Steel Frontier brigade – Staff Sergeant Ivan Koval, Sergeant Vitaliy Mykytenko, and Senior Soldier Yevhen Kolesnik. Well done! Chernihiv and Volyn border guard detachments – Senior Soldiers Mykhailo Danyliuk and Mykhailo Myndiuk, Sergeants Yuriy Romashyn and Mykhailo Sereda, and Senior Sergeant Roman Novyk. Sumy border guard detachment – Soldier Andriy Krut and Staff Sergeant Yuriy Popkov particularly distinguished themselves… I also thank all the soldiers of our Kharkiv detachment, especially Senior Soldiers Denys Shevchenko and Volodymyr Shevtsov, and Major Andriy Kuchynskyi. I am proud of you all, warriors!

I am grateful to everyone who is with Ukraine, who is in Ukraine and for whom Ukraine is the only home on Earth.

Glory to Ukraine!

Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky says the battlefield situation has "worsened," and Russia is "trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the frontline." It has "a significant advantage in forces and means" and is "actively…

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) April 28, 2024

Here’s a machine translation of Colonel General Syrsky’s full statement from his Telegram channel:

The situation at the front worsened. Trying to seize the strategic initiative and break through the front line, the enemy concentrated the main efforts in several directions, creating a significant advantage in forces and means. Actively attacks along the entire front line, in some directions – has tactical successes. There is a dynamic change in the situation, individual positions change “from hand to hand” several times during the day, which gives rise to an ambiguous understanding of the situation.

What is actually happening at the front?

Heavy fighting continued across the front line this week. The situation was changing dynamically – in some areas the enemy had tactical success, and in some areas it was possible to improve the tactical position of our troops.

In Luhansk region, the enemy is trying to take advantage of its advantage in air, missiles and the number of artillery ammunition. The main task for himself is to reach the administrative border of the Luhansk region.

The main areas where the enemy’s efforts are concentrated in the Kupyan direction are the villages of Stelmakhivka and Berestov. There, the enemy had partial success, but was stopped by the actions of our units. Also, continues the offensive on the village of Terny in the Lymansky direction, tries to push the Defense Forces of Ukraine beyond the Black Stallion River, without success.

In the Siversk direction, the enemy is advancing in the area of ​​Bilogorivka and Rozdolivka, trying to break through and block Siversk in order to create conditions for the continuation of the offensive on Slovyansk. There are no successes, his progress in this direction is stopped.

In the Kramatorsk direction, Ivanovske and Chasiv Yar remain the hottest spots. Also, the enemy is trying to bring Klishchiivka under its control and go to the border along the “Siverskyi Donets-Donbas” channel.

The most difficult situation is in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, where fierce battles continue. The enemy deployed up to four brigades in these directions, is trying to develop an offensive west of Avdiyivka and Maryinka, making its way to Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo. Units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine, preserving the lives and health of our defenders, moved to new frontiers west of Berdychi, Semenivka and Novomykhailivka. In general, the enemy achieved certain tactical successes in these directions, but could not gain operational advantages. Ukrainian troops inflict maximum losses on the enemy, both in terms of personnel and military equipment. In order to strengthen the defense in these directions, to replace the units that have suffered losses, the brigades that have regained combat capability are being moved.

The situation is still tense in the South, in the Zaporizhia and Kherson regions. On the Novopavlivskyi direction, the enemy is trying to advance in the Staromayorsky area, on the Orihivskyi – in the Robotyny and Verbovoiy areas, on the Khersonskyi – they still hope to knock out our troops from Krynyk. There is no success in any of the directions. Moreover, in the direction of Kherson, our units managed to advance in the area of ​​Veletenskyi and establish control over the island of Nestryga.

Also, the Defense Forces of Ukraine managed to improve their tactical position in the area of ​​Synkivka (Kupian direction) and Serebryan Forestry (Lyman direction).

In the North of Ukraine, the enemy continues shelling border settlements in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, conducts sabotage and reconnaissance activities. There are no signs of direct enemy preparation for offensive actions in the North of Ukraine. At the same time, we are monitoring the increase in the number and regrouping of enemy troops in the Kharkiv direction. In the most threatening directions, our troops have been reinforced by artillery and tank units.

We continue the rotation of military units in order to organize personnel rest and restore the combat capability of our military units.

Training of personnel in training centers continues, the main emphasis is placed on quality and skill in handling weapons.

Work on the fortification equipment of defensive lines and positions continues.

We are also working with partners to obtain weapons, weapons and military equipment as soon as possible.

Together to victory!
Glory to Ukraine!
t.me/osirskiy/670

Estonia:

Russian GPS jamming in and around Estonia having an increasing impact. For two days in a row planes are unable to land at the second biggest city in Estonia due to GPS jamming. Pretty disturbing. https://t.co/nkmSFTPHlh pic.twitter.com/j7txR5oUWn

— Erik Kannike (@erikkannike) April 27, 2024

https://twitter.com/DavidPriess/status/1784001481118540007

Russia has been at war with the US, the EU, NATO, and our other non-EU and non-NATO allies since at least 2011 if not 2009. A war Putin declared at the Munich Security Conference in 2007 with the claim that the US and NATO had and was attacking Russia. We have been living within World War III for well over a decade. It might be prudent for our leaders to wake up to that reality and act accordingly.

Kharkiv & Kupyansk:

Russian troops amass near Kharkiv, advancing towards Kupiansk. Despite Kharkiv being a longstanding military goal, even the most radical Russian strategists admit capturing the city seems improbable. Now, resorting to disinformation & 'grey zone' tactics to intimidate civilians pic.twitter.com/1zWvvji2mF

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) April 28, 2024

Cape Tarkhantut, Russian occupied Crimea:

Russian channels report a night attack on an air defense base in Crimea, Cape Tarkhantut, using democratic ATACMS missiles.

The same missiles were allegedly used to successfully destroy the S-400 system in Dzhankoy earlier. pic.twitter.com/wfyyVUz8yI

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) April 28, 2024

Russian Telegram channels report the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian air defense unit at Cape Tarkhankut overnight allegedly with ATACMS missiles.

In addition, a powerful explosion is reported in Dzhankoi and Dzhankoi district of occupied Crimea.

According to Suspilne,… pic.twitter.com/BNbT3Ual17

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 28, 2024

Russian Telegram channels report the Ukrainian military attacked a Russian air defense unit at Cape Tarkhankut overnight allegedly with ATACMS missiles.

In addition, a powerful explosion is reported in Dzhankoi and Dzhankoi district of occupied Crimea.

According to Suspilne, more than ten explosions sounded around 1 am in Razdolne district bordering Dzhankoi in northern Crimea.

There is no official information on the strike yet.

Despite the explosions, Russians want to rest in Crimea: the tourist flow has been off the scale since the morning of April 28. Local Telegram channels report about queues for inspections in Taman and Chonhar checkpoint (on video).

Crimea has become one of the few alternatives for restricted Russians.

Russians are used to celebrating Easter holidays (next week) in Crimea.

Well, Russians love fireworks and salutes.

On the border of Zaprizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts:

Airstrikes on Russian positions somewhere on the Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions.https://t.co/dcuN3fv7Zz pic.twitter.com/839GSMhMUs

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 28, 2024

An update on the octogenarian who fled Russian occupied Donetsk on foot:

Ivan Vivsianyk, 88, who fled the Russian-occupied village of Ocheretyne on foot under shelling because he did not want to live with a Russian passport, settled in Dnipro region and plans to garden.

Mr. Ivan said that Russian occupiers threatened to shoot him, they took away his… https://t.co/fK9RgcQrWN pic.twitter.com/lNmJ7DNcFP

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 28, 2024

Ivan Vivsianyk, 88, who fled the Russian-occupied village of Ocheretyne on foot under shelling because he did not want to live with a Russian passport, settled in Dnipro region and plans to garden.

Mr. Ivan said that Russian occupiers threatened to shoot him, they took away his Ukrainian documents. He walked for more than six hours with one bag, and then hitched a ride to Pokrovsk. There the man asked for help.

Now, at the center for evacuees in Dnipro, Mr. Ivan is recovering. The head of the center says that despite his age, Ivan is independent and eager to lead an active life.

“He wants to garden. I think, he will find a a partner here. He enjoys success among our grandmothers and not only grandmothers, so I think we don’t need to worry. He is an independent person – he showed himself right away,” Olha Volkova, head of the temporary accommodation center said.

Ivan Vivsianyk is sure that he will also harvest tomatoes and grapes, at least in Dnipropetrovsk region.

📹: TSN

Odesa:

Odesa. A family stands on the ruins of their house, which was destroyed by a Russian drone on April 23.

Khrystyna and Ruslan have three children. Little Andriana, who is only 1 year old, nine-year-old Vadym, and twelve-year-old Vanya, who is in the hospital. The family was at… pic.twitter.com/NwbM3TIG6Q

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) April 28, 2024

Odesa. A family stands on the ruins of their house, which was destroyed by a Russian drone on April 23.

Khrystyna and Ruslan have three children. Little Andriana, who is only 1 year old, nine-year-old Vadym, and twelve-year-old Vanya, who is in the hospital. The family was at home at the time of the explosion. It’s a miracle that they survived, but the eldest son was injured.

📷: Libkos

Kushchyovskaya airfield, Russia:

First satellite image of the Russian Kushchyovskaya military airfield after the recent drone attack.
Along with airfield two Russian oil refineries were also targeted during the attack – https://t.co/AZhHRFUV3H https://t.co/NhBkOUi004

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 28, 2024

/3. Satellite imagery of whole airbase https://t.co/HM5DEUnhDz

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) April 28, 2024

For those wondering, here’s an update on what has happened to the Wagner Group since Prigozhin was killed.

Exclusive: Thousands of Wagner fighters are now under the command of Russia's military and intelligence services. Inside the fracturing of Prigozhin's empirehttps://t.co/rLC85ADu4J

— Erin Banco (@ErinBanco) April 28, 2024

From Politico:

Seven months after the fiery death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the audacious oligarch whose private army known as the Wagner Group led an insurrection against Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Russian state is establishing control of the private mercenaries and putting them to work pursuing the Kremlin’s agenda.

The thousands of the former Wagner forces have splintered into at least four groups, according to two U.S. officials granted anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence matters.

By mixing the fighters with other mercenaries loyal to Putin, the Russian government hopes to prevent a repeat of the events of last year, when a unified Wagner turned on Putin and his defense ministry.

“Part of the objective of the restructuring is to make sure there is more control over the operations overall,” one of the U.S. officials said.

The new private armies are already being deployed across the world on special missions, including to Ukraine and Africa, where they are expected to play a similarly destabilizing role on the global stage as when under the command of Prigozhin, the officials said. The reconstituted paramilitary groups have already forced the Biden administration to withdraw troops from Niger and Chad — in major setbacks for counterterrorism — while challenging U.S. policies in the Central African Republic, Mali, Burkina Faso, Libya and other African nations.

One of the four groups is aligned with Russia’s National Guard. It has already transferred to Ukraine and lost a significant number of fighters. Two other groups are operating under the control of the defense ministry and Moscow’s intelligence services. The fourth group — known as the Africa Corps and aligned with an existing group known as Redut — is still working to assume control of former Wagner forces in some African capitals, the officials said.

Little else is known about the breakdown of the new factions, including how many members come from Prigozhin’s Wagner versus other existing paramilitary organizations. It’s also unclear to what extent Prigozhin’s son, who initially took control of thousands of Wagner mercenaries after his father’s death, is still involved in leading a smaller group of fighters still loyal to his father’s memory. The younger Prigozhin is likely in charge of some forces in the Central African Republic and Mali, the officials said.

Prigozhin died last August when his plane exploded in midair. The crash was widely viewed as a state-sponsored assassination, ordered by Putin.

Prigozhin’s death left the fate of his empire in limbo. At that time, the Wagner Group was in the process of establishing close ties to the leaders of rogue African states, providing security to dictators while engaging in lucrative mining operations.

In the Central African Republic, for instance, Wagner had taken control of a gold mine. In the wake of Prigozhin’s death, his former subordinates have significantly expanded the mine, U.S. officials said, but have not yet found a way to efficiently market and ship the minerals. They would reap hundreds of millions of dollars in profit on the global market.

Prigozhin also oversaw a sweeping disinformation operation that organized protests in Africa, helped place falsified news stories in media outlets around the world and ran massive troll farms to destabilize elections in Western Europe, the United States and other democracies.

The disinformation arms are now likely under the control of Russia’s foreign intelligence service, the U.S. officials said. And Prigozhin’s economic employees may have been placed under other intelligence offices, including the military’s intelligence directorate.

Moscow’s newly asserted command of these private mercenaries has vast implications for geopolitics. In Africa, especially, it could undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to fight terrorism, promote democracy and forge diplomatic ties to newly formed regimes.

“The timing element is key here. Russia can give these countries what the U.S. cannot and immediately,” one of the U.S. officials said, referring to Moscow’s ability to use private fighters to provide under-the-table weapons and ammunition to newly formed military governments in Africa. “And a lot of the leaders of those countries are sick of the U.S. lecturing them about democracy.”

Moscow’s direct control of paramilitary groups could also convince some African countries that had previously shied away from the Wagner Group — which was under global sanctions as a criminal organization — to reconsider their resistance, said the officials.

Moscow’s use of the paramilitary fighters to spread its influence in Africa is already visible in Niger, one of the most important outposts in the war against terrorism.

Nigerien military leaders took control from the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, last July. The coup prompted Washington to suspend its economic and military aid to the country while the Biden administration pushed the military leaders to transition back to a civilian-led democracy.

Earlier this month, however, hundreds of Russian mercenaries arrived in the capital city of Niamey, claiming they were there to help train Niger’s military and to enter into a formal partnership with the ruling junta.

Their arrival came just days before the Biden administration announced that the U.S. would withdraw its 1,000 troops from the country after nearly 10 years, creating the appearance of Russian forces supplanting those of the U.S. in a country where terrorist groups have organized and plotted global attacks.

Meanwhile, in Chad, another country with a significant presence of former Wagner fighters, the Biden administration announced this week that it was withdrawing about 75 special operations forces who had been performing counterterrorism roles, at the request of the local government.

The move was widely seen as another instance of Russia supplanting U.S. influence.

Former Wagner fighters also remain active in Mali, Libya and Sudan, where they have contracts to provide security to unstable regimes. The U.S. has tried to counter Wagner’s presence in those nations and the Central African Republic, urging officials to distance themselves from Russia.

In another country, Burkina Faso, as in Niger and Chad, former Wagner forces are now under firm control of the Africa Corps.

But the two U.S. officials caution that there are risks to Russia’s strategy — especially pertaining to ongoing questions about the loyalty of former Wagner fighters and their willingness to take orders from the country’s oft-maligned defense ministry.

Even before his insurrection, Prigozhin would often publicly condemn the ministry of defense, blaming its leaders for setbacks on the battlefield in Ukraine. And his final break with Putin occurred when he attempted to force the ouster of Sergei Shoigu, minister of defense, and Valery Gerasimov, the military’s chief of staff.

Prigozhin blamed the duo for the poor performance of Russian troops. He also claimed that they had exaggerated the largely illusory threat posed by Ukraine to push Putin into an unwise war.

Many of Wagner’s fighters have remained loyal to Prigozhin’s memory and similarly disliked the defense minister. Now, some of them are being led by that very official — Shoigu — in a highly selective group known as Patriot. It is supervised and financed by the ministry of defense, officials say.

“It’s unclear if Moscow will be able to pull off what Wagner has done for years,” a third U.S. official said. “These fighters are being put into an existing, bureaucratic system that might slow things down and make them less dangerous.”

More at the link.

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

I would like you to get to know about Ukrainian poetess Lina Kostenko. Here’s the translation of my favorite poem:

Words terrify when they remain not spoken,
When suddenly, they tuck themselves away,
When you don’t know how silence can be broken,
For someone else has said all… pic.twitter.com/1f9rZ0AhFS

— Patron (@PatronDsns) April 28, 2024

I would like you to get to know about Ukrainian poetess Lina Kostenko. Here’s the translation of my favorite poem:

Words terrify when they remain not spoken,
When suddenly, they tuck themselves away,
When you don’t know how silence can be broken,
For someone else has said all you might say.

These words were once pronounced in tears or pain,
They were the dawn yet also the cessation,
Billions of men and words, like drops of rain,
For the first time now, they are your creation.

Both beauty and ill will have had their fame,
There have been weeds and roads beneath our sole,
But poetry will never be the same,
It will forever touch the human soul.

(Translation Ivan Doan)

Open thread!