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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Authoritarian republicans are opposed to freedom for the rest of us.

… pundit janitors mopping up after the gop

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

There are times when telling just part of the truth is effectively a lie.

American history and black history cannot be separated.

Good lord, these people are nuts.

Tick tock motherfuckers!

“Until such time as the world ends, we will act as though it intends to spin on.”

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Speaking of republicans, is there a way for a political party to declare intellectual bankruptcy?

If ‘weird’ was the finish line, they ran through the tape and kept running.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

Nothing worth doing is easy.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

Fight them, without becoming them!

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

The unpunished coup was a training exercise.

To the privileged, equality seems like oppression.

I swear, each month of 2025 will have its own history degree.

I would gladly pay you tuesday for a hamburger today.

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

Hot air and ill-informed banter

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Open Thread:  Hey Lurkers!  (Holiday Post)

Open Threads

You are here: Home / Archives for Open Threads

Late Night Open Thread: Let the Masses Enjoy Their Simple Pleasures

by Anne Laurie|  January 16, 202411:27 pm| 238 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Popular Culture, Show Us on the Doll Where the Invisible Hand Touched You, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome

You can tell capitalism is in its late stages because we build the coolest fucking things of all time while simultaneously having rapid wage gains for the very poor

How can a system survive being awesome as shit while also becoming more egalitarian https://t.co/zFBVbe9nqa

— Swann Marcus (@SwannMarcus89) January 16, 2024

I would much rather undergo a(nother) root canal than even the most refined of sea cruises, but c’mon. Ever-bigger cruise ships are built because more people want to take the kind of vacation their improved incomes finally permit them to dream about! Even if one objects to ‘tourists’ cluttering otherwise attractive foreign sites and threatening local eco-systems, why not let people congregate on a big floating petri dish cargo ship where they can gorge on familiar dishes, unleash their screaming offspring, and make potentially terrible romantic choices?

Quote from a locked account:

Late stage capitalism means that roughly once a year a middle class family can go on a decadent entertainment ship staffed by people who are also making a living wage and can afford their own vacations.

show full post on front page

Heck, anyone who’s read ‘classic’ mysteries (Murder on the Nile, for instance) knows that people were already complaining about the democratization of cruise ships almost a century ago!

who do they think the target market for cruises is? this is not recreation for the uber rich. These ships get bigger and bigger in order to bring prices lower and lower. Cruises are primarily recreation for the middle and lower middle classes. Rich people don’t go on cruises. https://t.co/RQZCqBGIv6

— Jon ???? ???? (@OpenBordersJon) January 16, 2024

My favorite thing about "late stage capitalism" is that the term was invented in the 1920s

Any day now, guys! Any day capitalism will really end because of its internal contradictions! We've been saying this 150 years, but we're serious for reals this time!

— Swann Marcus (@SwannMarcus89) January 16, 2024

Someone in 2099: "Why can't we build beautiful things like this? RETVRN" pic.twitter.com/u8tQCwWqJq

— G. Scott Shand 🌐 (@GScottShand) January 16, 2024

Late stage capitalism is just the communist version of the end days.

— Noah Ruderman (@devilscompiler) January 16, 2024

Of a piece with the medieval peasant trads…western moderns cannot even conceptualize how poor, sick, and deprived our ancestors were before the Industrial Revolution and capitalism transformed the world faster than anything had transformed it before.

— VictorK1862 (@VictorK1862) January 16, 2024

one of the secret advantages of not growing up in the west: you treat grocery shopping like a chore but I always have a happy little yeltsin on my shoulder spreading his arms in drunken wonder when I enter the store https://t.co/8Y4Qje21pU

— Seva (@SevaUT) January 16, 2024

Late Night Open Thread: Let the Masses Enjoy Their Simple PleasuresPost + Comments (238)

War for Ukraine Day 692: Russia Has Once Again Bombarded Civilian Targets in Kharkiv

by Adam L Silverman|  January 16, 20249:29 pm| 15 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Screen shot of new artwork by NEIVANMADE. The background is black. In the bottom foreground are grey Ukrainian homes and apartment buildings being bombarded by red Russian missiles with the Special Military Operation "Z" symbol on them. Above the missiles, written in red is the word "Ruzzians". Below the buildings being attacked is the statement "Turns Homes Into Graves".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Russia just attacked Kharkiv city center with S-300 missiles. Repeated attacks on civilian areas aim to threaten, undermine morale, and escalate tensions around Kharkiv pic.twitter.com/4IyhYy4ZRT

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 16, 2024

Kharkiv mayor Ihor Terekhov writes on Telegram that Russian missiles have hit the centre of the city tonight “exactly here there is no military infrastructure, and exactly where there is residential construction.“ There are people wounded, he says.

— Mark MacKinnon (@markmackinnon) January 16, 2024

At least four civilians were injured, head of Kharkiv Oblast Military Administration reported. https://t.co/YxjCvUvS98

— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) January 16, 2024

President Zelenskyy was in Davos today where he addressed the World Economic Forum. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

Every investment in the confidence of the defender shortens the war – speech by the President of Ukraine to the participants of the special meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos

16 January 2024 – 16:52

Professor Schwab, thank you for your very kind introduction.

President Brende,

Ladies and Gentlemen, 

I appreciate your willingness to hear answers to truly important questions. When will the war end? Is the Third world war possible? Is it time to negotiate with Putin?

The full-scale war in Europe has been ongoing for nearly two years. Counting the time since Russia’s illegal annexation of our Crimea, it’s been almost 10 years.

And for almost 10 years, Russia has been interfering in African countries, from Sudan to Mali.

The Syrian war, still bleeding because of Putin’s decision to prove something to the world, has been ongoing for almost 13 years.

In fact, one man has stolen at least 13 years of peace replacing them with pain, pain, pain and crises that impact the entire world.

Putin is trying to normalize what should have ended in the 20th century – mass deportations, cities and villages razed to the ground, and the terrifying feeling that the war may never end.

In fact, Putin embodies war. We all know that he is the sole reason why various wars and conflicts persist, and why all attempts to restore peace have failed. And he will not change. He will not change.

We must change. We all must change to the extent that the madness that resides in this man’s head or any other aggressor’s head will not prevail.

Putin is frank about what he wants, what he does, and who his targets are.

His answer to the duration of the war is always war, without an end. He wants it this way.

His answer to the limits of chaos in the world is the boundless support of terrorist forces. He enjoys conflicts that cause suffering to others.

His answer to calls for peace is supplying more and more weapons from North Korea and Iran.

Regimes like his exist as long as they wage wars.

And we – we all in the free world – exist as long as we can defend ourselves.

If anyone thinks this is only about Ukraine, they’re fundamentally mistaken. Possible directions and even timeline of a new Russian aggression beyond Ukraine become more and more obvious.

Let me ask very honestly: which European nation today can provide a combat ready army on par with ours, holding back Russia? And how many men and women are your nations ready to send to defend another state, another nation?

If one must fight against Putin together in the years ahead, isn’t it better to put an end to him and his war-strategy now, while our brave men and women are already doing it? They are the world’s chance. They are.

In any dire confrontation, there’s always a point where a catastrophe can be stopped. Ukraine is that opportunity.

And we all in the free world must be unwavering in our pursuit of our desires, actions, and goals, just as Putin is frank about his doom-laden ambitions.

We, all Ukrainians, began our defense at a time when almost no one in the world believed in Ukraine. But we turned tables so that now the world has stopped believing in Russia.

Even Putin’s current buddies in Pyongyang and Tehran are simply using his madness while he still has technologies and resources to pay them. No one believes in his future or invests in it.

And we, all of us, today, even more than yesterday, must invest in bringing peace closer – a peace that is both just and stable.

Before the full-scale invasion, we constantly heard – don’t escalate! We called for proactive action, sanctions to prevent war expansion. We were told: don’t escalate. And after February 24th, nothing harmed our coalitions more than this concept.

Every “don’t escalate” to us, sounded like “you will prevail” to Putin. We asked for new types of weapons, and the response was “don’t escalate”. But then weapons arrived, and there was no escalation. A Russian missile fell on NATO territory – the response again was “don’t escalate.” But  retaliation at that moment could have taught Russia a lot and would have added necessary confidence to the West. We talked about blocking the transit of sanctioned goods to Kaliningrad, but the response was “don’t escalate”. Full force of the sanctions could have forced Putin to concessions.

Because of “don’t escalate,” time was lost. The lives of many of our most experienced warriors, who fought since 2014, were lost. Some opportunities were lost.

The lesson is clear.

Everyone thought Russia had missiles that couldn’t be shot down. Patriots shoot down everything.

Many feared the consequences if Ukraine gets long-range weapons. As a result – Russia just loses more.

We heard Russia would never allow a grain corridor without its involvement. Nearly 16 million tons of cargo have been transported from our ports.

And we can prove that Russia will reconcile with the complete loss of its Black Sea Fleet, which terrorized commercial ships.

We must gain air superiority for Ukraine, just as we have gained superiority at the Black Sea. We can do it. Partners know what’s needed and in what quantities. This will allow progress on the ground.

Just two days ago, we proved Ukraine can even hit very valuable Russian military aircraft which no one had shot down before.

Many sanction steps were delayed for months, even years, because they faced storms of threats from Moscow. But none of those threats came true. Each storm turned out to be their bluff.

And how can one be satisfied with the sanctions against Russia or export controls if they don’t even block its missile production? In every Russian missile there are critical components from Western countries. Dozens of components in every missile. And it’s true. It’s a fact.

Of course, I am grateful for each package of sanctions. Thanks, partners. Thank you. But bringing peace closer will be a reward for all those who care to ensure that sanctions work one hundred percent.

And by the way, it’s a clear weakness of the West that Russia’s nuclear industry is still not under global sanctions, even though Putin is the only terrorist in the world who took a nuclear power plant hostage.

It must be a strong decision, this year, when frozen Russian assets, sovereign and oligarchic, will be directed towards defense against the Russian war and for reconstruction of Ukraine.

Putin loves money above all. The more billions he and his oligarchs, friends, and accomplices lose, the more likely he will regret starting this war.

Putin must regret. We need him to lose. We need to finally dispel the notion that global unity is weaker than one man’s hatred.

And we can do it.

Ladies and Gentlemen!

This year must be decisive. Can freezing the war in Ukraine be its end?

I don’t want to settle for the truism that any frozen conflict will eventually reignite.

I remind you that after 2014, there were attempts to freeze the war in Donbas. There were very influential guarantors of that process – then Chancellor of Germany and then Presidents of France.

But Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products. And we have to defend ourselves, our children, our houses, our lives. We have to do it. We can beat him on the ground. We have proved it. And at sea and in the skies. We ramp up production of weapons. We achieved economic growth in Ukraine, our GDP is moving-up – despite the war, plus more than 5 percent last year. We got the decision on EU-accession negotiations. We are normalizing the idea that the aggressions can be defeated – even Putin’s aggressions, which have been ongoing for ten years and more.

Now we can say: don’t escalate. To all who doubt. To all who want to reduce support.

And in this warning, we will be absolutely correct.

Because every reduction in pressure on the aggressor adds years to the war. But every investment in the confidence of the defender shortens the war.

We must make it possible to answer the most important question: the war will end – with a just and stable peace.

And I want you to be the part of this peace – starting from right now – to bring the peace closer. And we need you in Ukraine – to build, to reconstruct, to restore our lives. Each of you can be even more successful with Ukraine.

And these days, right here in such a beautiful country, in Switzerland, we have made a key political contribution to the possibility of ending the war.

There was the most representative meeting of national security advisors regarding the implementation of the Peace Formula. More than 80 countries and international institutions were represented. Yesterday, I had very productive negotiations with the President of Switzerland, discussing the possibility of holding a summit at the leaders’ level in Switzerland – the first summit, the Global Peace Summit. Today, our teams have already begun work on organizing such a summit. Not the World War Three, but the Global Peace Summit.

And I invite every leader and country that respects peace and international law to join us.

Together we can answer any crucial questions. And it will be the best answers.

Peace must be the answer.

Thank you for your invitation. Thank you for your attention!

Слава Україні!

“If anyone thinks this is only about us, this is only about Ukraine, they are fundamentally mistaken. Possible directions and even new Russian aggression beyond Ukraine become more and more obvious,” Zelensky warned. “Strengthen our economy and we will strengthen your security.” https://t.co/IbQMLDnrwY

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) January 16, 2024

From The Financial Times:

Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged allies to boost funding for his country, arguing that Kyiv’s ability to fight back against the Russian invasion is also in their own security interests.

Ukraine’s president told the World Economic Forum in Davos on Tuesday that anyone who believed Vladimir Putin’s war was only about Ukraine was “fundamentally mistaken”, adding that the Russian leader embodies war without an end.

The solution was not a frozen conflict in Ukraine, he said. “Putin is a predator who is not satisfied with frozen products.”

His Davos pitch comes as western aid is running perilously low after decision makers in Washington and Brussels were unable to renew a total of $110bn for the next few years. Russia, meanwhile, has ramped up its aerial attacks on Ukrainian cities, as well as its domestic arms production and imports of drones and missiles from Iran and North Korea.

“If anyone thinks this is only about us, this is only about Ukraine, they are fundamentally mistaken. Possible directions and even . . . a new Russian aggression beyond Ukraine become more and more obvious,” Zelenskyy warned. “Strengthen our economy and we will strengthen your security.”

Zelenskyy met government and business leaders in the Swiss resort, including JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon, Blackstone Group chair Stephen Schwarzman and Lakshmi Mittal, founder of steel giant ArcelorMittal.

He struck a particularly optimistic note regarding the EU’s delayed financing package, saying he had seen positive signs on this front.

EU officials are increasingly confident that they can strike a deal on February 1 to allocate €50bn of fresh funding to Ukraine, either through concessions to Hungary that would allow the use of the bloc’s shared budget, or an off-budget “plan B” arrangement that would bypass Budapest.

Zelenskyy said his country was still counting on Congress to unlock the latest US financial package, as concerns in Kyiv and allied capitals are mounting about Donald Trump returning to the White House following elections in November. The former president is campaigning on halting support for Ukraine and “ending the war” with Russia.

European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, who also spoke at Davos on Tuesday, said Ukraine could prevail in the war, but warned that the allies needed to “continue to empower their resistance”.

“Ukrainians need predictable financing throughout 2024 and beyond. They need a sufficient and sustained supply of weapons to defend Ukraine and regain its rightful territory. They need capabilities to deter future attacks by Russia.”

A Ukrainian counteroffensive last year failed to recapture significant territories occupied by Russia and Nato secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said that, in terms of the military campaign, “the reality is that, of course, there are reasons to be concerned”.

“The big [Ukrainian] spring offensive didn’t give the results we all hoped for,” said the head of the military alliance. “But despite these difficulties, there are reasons for optimism,” he added, calling for countries “to continue to deliver the weapons”.

More at the link.

The price:

🇺🇦 🇺🇸 🇨🇦 🇦🇺 🇬🇧 🇮🇪 🇸🇪 🇳🇴 🇪🇪 🇵🇱 🇬🇪 🇦🇿 🇯🇵🇨🇭 …
Never forget the price of freedom pic.twitter.com/hqJ03zZ7ts

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 16, 2024

France:

At his press conference this evening I asked @EmmanuelMacron about 🇫🇷 military support for 🇺🇦. He said that 🇫🇷 would unveil a bilateral security agreement with 🇺🇦 shortly, send 40 more SCALP missiles + “hundreds” of (unspecified) bombs, and that he would go to Kyiv in February pic.twitter.com/DrvtgsxcFo

— Sophie Pedder (@PedderSophie) January 16, 2024

Comes immediately after the French foreign minister visited Kyiv. https://t.co/Gy5WvEWVZR

— Michael Weiss (@michaeldweiss) January 16, 2024

The Polish-Ukrainian border:

Earlier the same day, Polish truckers ended their blockade of two other checkpoints — Korczowa-Krakovets and Hrebenne-Rava Ruska, meaning the border is now fully unblocked. This followed an agreement between Warsaw and the Polish truckers, who said they would end their border…

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) January 16, 2024

⚡️ Border Guard: Polish truckers unblock last crossing at Ukraine border.

The blockade at the Dorohusk-Yahodyn crossing, the last Polish-Ukrainian border checkpoint remaining blocked, has been lifted, and the movement of trucks there has resumed, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service said on Jan. 16.

Earlier the same day, Polish truckers ended their blockade of two other checkpoints — Korczowa-Krakovets and Hrebenne-Rava Ruska, meaning the border is now fully unblocked. This followed an agreement between Warsaw and the Polish truckers, who said they would end their border blockade until March 1.

Germany:

President Biden and I agree: we want to continue to provide Ukraine with financial, humanitarian and military support. Today, I spoke to @POTUS on the phone. Germany is providing more than seven billion euros in military goods in 2024.

— Bundeskanzler a.D. Olaf Scholz (@KanzlerScholz) January 16, 2024

Also, Germany:

German opposition leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, calls for the TAURUS delivery. He explicitly mentions the Kerch Bridge to be destroyed. He is questioning Scholz' "reasoning" on this matter, or better the lacking of thereof.

This is exactly how to phrase it.

Source… pic.twitter.com/FVGKz11kxK

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) January 16, 2024

German opposition leader of the CDU, Friedrich Merz, calls for the TAURUS delivery. He explicitly mentions the Kerch Bridge to be destroyed. He is questioning Scholz’ “reasoning” on this matter, or better the lacking of thereof.

This is exactly how to phrase it.

Source (German) https://table.media/berlin/interview/interview-mit-friedrich-merz-wer-frieden-will-muss-zum-krieg-bereit-sein/

#Germany #Ukraine #TAURUS

Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

There is an old proverb: the Ukrainians who are not left in peace by the russian occupiers will burn down their weapons.

It was proved by our warriors in the Kherson region when they destroyed two russian BM-27 Uragan 220mm MLRS.

📹: Operational Command South pic.twitter.com/4BmRUtxcBi

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 16, 2024

The left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

Revenge for the shelling of Ukrainian cities.
Our warriors destroyed a russian BM-21 Grad MLRS on the left bank of the Kherson region using an FPV drone.

📹: 79th Border Guard Detachment pic.twitter.com/FLcSfIVEkh

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 16, 2024

/2. Osa location on the map pic.twitter.com/plMcrUlmjU

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 16, 2024

Krynky, the left bank of the Dnipro, Russian occupied Kherson Oblast:

New Armin van Buuren set for Russian infestation in Krynky (sanitary losses).

Magyar. pic.twitter.com/nroWjqudyY

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 16, 2024

Magyar’s Birds have begun the New Year on the hunt!

Avdiivka:

As shown by the 110th Brigade, another column of at least 7 Russian vehicles attempted an attack in the Avdiivka direction on 15 January. The Brigade promised to reveal more details of how things unfolded later.https://t.co/db9ElPRTg3 pic.twitter.com/6EP0Xh4yeV

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 16, 2024

DeepState in more details about yesterday’s Russian attack on Avdiivka:

“Yesterday, the Russians launched an attack from three directions on the northeastern outskirts of Avdiivka

🗡 The fighters of the 110th brigade had to stop the enemy's attack yesterday. In the area of… https://t.co/tVgDIHjXe1 pic.twitter.com/Fnm3tSj215

— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) January 16, 2024

DeepState in more details about yesterday’s Russian attack on Avdiivka:

“Yesterday, the Russians launched an attack from three directions on the northeastern outskirts of Avdiivka

🗡 The fighters of the 110th brigade had to stop the enemy’s attack yesterday. In the area of ​​Kamyanka, two simultaneous waves of infantry platoon were moving. The goal was either to try to break through in small groups, or to distract from another strike. After all, at the same time, a convoy of at least 10 AFVs was moving through Vesele to Avdiivka.

🔥 The suicide tank at the head of the convoy acted as a deminer and our guys thought until the end that it was on remote control. BMP immediately disembarked the infantry and retreated. The infantry was hit immediately, it was not possible to calculate the losses. Some of the AFVs were destroyed, the footage can be seen in the previous video on the channel. As for the two waves near Kamyanka, about 20 people from two platoons were killed and wounded. The rest ran away.

🛡Despite all the difficulty of conducting hostilities in conditions of a long line of contact, the fighters of the Defense Forces manage to successfully inflict effective damage on the enemy. An important role is played by the leadership and personnel of the 110th Brigade, who make every effort to hold positions with minimal losses.”

https://t.me/DeepStateUA/18592

Moscow:

how many times and in how many ways does putin have to say that russia's borders do not end anywhere before some people get it? https://t.co/fFXB69b7SG

— marta dyczok (@mdyczok) January 15, 2024

Voronezh & the Voronezh military airfield, Russia:

City of Voronezh officially joins the Special Military Operation Zone after an attack by unidentified flying objects last night. pic.twitter.com/IA1QrHRAwf

— WarTranslated (@wartranslated) January 16, 2024

Russian sources report a successful drone attack on the Voronezh military airfield, Baltimor, over 200 km deep inside Russia. Don't designate only Belgorod as a grey zone; include Voronezh, Kursk, and Rostov pic.twitter.com/Os7x0AveI6

— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) January 16, 2024

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron tweets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense:

Our drones are even more effective when a furry supervisor helps to launch them. pic.twitter.com/8sBwsHLC2S

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) January 16, 2024

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 692: Russia Has Once Again Bombarded Civilian Targets in KharkivPost + Comments (15)

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: How We Win

by Anne Laurie|  January 16, 20246:25 pm| 140 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Trumpery

Is it just me or does it feel a bit like liberals are getting their "I feel somewhat confident being a reasonable person in public" groove back?

— Magdi Jacobs (@magi_jay) January 12, 2024

A formative moment of my view of Biden was the 2023 debt ceiling standoff, where I was absolutely dead certain Biden was screwing up, the Dem caucuses were loudly complaining he was screwing up, and in reality it turned out he was negotiating an okay deal behind the scenes.

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) January 16, 2024

I still think his admin tends to struggle with POLITICS, per se, but part of why they struggle with politics is that they haven't been willing to sacrifice any policy leverage for the sake of performative positioning or placating critics.

— Will Stancil (@whstancil) January 16, 2024

Relational positioning, from Never-Trumper J.V. Last, at the Bulwark:

… [U]nlike every other contested primary in the modern era, Trump will arrive at the nomination in a pre-campaign state where he has yet to take a punch.

And the reality is this: Do you think Republican voters are likely to become more comfortable with Trump the more they see of him over the next 10 months? I do not. Historically, Trump’s approval numbers have moved inversely to the magnitude of his public presence.

I expect that once there is a real race, with Biden actually hitting Trump where he is softest, and Trump is in everyone’s face, we are likely to see some erosion of Republican support for Trump at the margins. Not a huge decline—but enough to measure. Enough to be dispositive.

Finally: Do you think Democratic voters are likely to become more disaffected with Biden over the next 10 months? I do not, for two reasons.

First, because the objective economic facts continue to improve and filter through the electorate. Second, because as we approach the election, not supporting Biden transforms from being a signal of dissatisfaction with his administration to an act of concrete support for Trump. On this score, I suspect we are near the high-water mark for Biden discontent among those Democratic groups and that they will gradually return to their party’s fold.

All of which is to say that it is hard to see why Trump could move any further ahead and not difficult to see why Biden’s standing could/should improve.

======

Relational organizing,
per Victor Shi, “Youngest Biden Delegate 20”:

THREAD: Stop with the doom & gloom Tweets about young people not supporting Joe Biden in 2024. I’m going to take a moment & explain why I’m not falling for the doom & gloom, AND, instead, offer what we must do to turn out Gen Z for Joe Biden like never before in 2024 (we will).

— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) January 2, 2024

show full post on front page

For instance, yesterday, the USA Today conducted a poll showing young people supporting Trump more than Biden. On the surface, that creates panic. But, dig into the poll, & you find that the only method they used was…phone calls. Ditto for many others. https://t.co/gcAcduREkk

— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) January 2, 2024

Compare that to other polls (YouGov/The Economist or the Harvard Youth Poll) that used a mix of methodologies (phone call, texts, online surveys) to reach young voters. What do you see in each of those polls? The VAST majority of young people supporting POTUS in 2024.

BUT, let’s put aside polls, because, frankly, it’s too far before the election, &, there are a lot more important issues to be focusing on than polls. The one thing I hear, above all else, when I talk to young people isn’t a disdain for POTUS. It’s unawareness of his policies.

Last week, I told @MuellerSheWrote a moment I encountered at school recently: A friend approached me & genuinely asked what this President has accomplished for young people. I responded & listed everything that POTUS has accomplished & at the end, she viewed POTUS favorably. WHY?

This shouldn’t shock many people, but it all boils down to where young people consume their info. We know that the political discourse in this app or that’s happening on MSNBC or CNN simply is not the same as the discourse happening where young people get info: social media.

They don’t hear, for example, President Biden’s actions around gun violence prevention, his historic investment in climate change, or just how much he’s been able to do with a bare majority in Congress. And that’s, arguably, the biggest challenge POTUS faces in 2024.

The record is there. Now, it’s about how we reach young voters not just effectively, but also in a way that will generate excitement for POTUS & his agenda. In other words, simply telling young people about the threat Trump poses won’t cut it. They must be excited about POTUS

I’ve written about this before & I’ll say it again. I believe it must be a two-pronged approach. First, flood the zone on social media. Doing one or two interviews with influencers a month won’t cut it. It must be constant & sustained. BUT, second:https://t.co/Ocy1NyAUJQ

— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) January 2, 2024

Meet young people where they are on college campuses. Whether it’s POTUS or VPOTUS, there is a value in showing up on a college campus & LISTENING to & engaging with young people. Let me share a story of a friend who attended VP’s college tour last year…

He wasn’t very enthusiastic about VP nor was he enthusiastic about POTUS. But after attending the event at Morehouse, he told me how amazing it felt to have a VP how showed up on a college campus & engaged with young people. That matters for a group that feels ignored in politics

What can we all do? 1.) Talk to young people in your lives & register them to vote. Ask them what they care about. Echo to them all that POTUS has done on the values they care about. And then help them through the process of registering to vote & then actually voting.

Another term for this is relational organizing. Data shows that, by far, the most effective way to persuade someone isn’t through a talking head on TV or through a politician. It’s through the people most immediate and closest in one’s life (friend, parents, teacher, etc).

Know that you are a trusted messenger for young people & that those conversations with young people matter more than you think. The second thing is to support young organizations out there doing work to turn out the vote. The biggest challenge that these orgs face is $$$$

Find a youth-focused org (not to be biased but something like @VotersTomorrow or @runforsomething or any of the many others) & chip in some money. Can be $1, $10, $100. Resources & money are scarce. & anything helps their efforts to engage a critical block of the 2024 cycle.

Bottom line: POTUS & VPOTUS are the most pro-youth admin of our lifetimes. I’m not saying there won’t be challenges (there will be), but we’ve done it before & we must do it again—& even more. Stay focused this year. Keep fighting. We can win & we will this thing. /END

Tuesday Evening Open Thread: How We WinPost + Comments (140)

Turnout

by @heymistermix.com|  January 16, 20243:14 pm| 270 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Josh Marshall has some observations about Iowa turnout:

Roughly 110,000 voters turned out for last night’s caucuses. That compares to 187,000 in 2016. (2012 and 2008 were closer to last night’s numbers 122,000 and 120,000, respectively.) But that’s still the lowest turnout in more than a decade and dramatically lower than the last contest in 2016. […]

Josh looks at a couple of possible reasons, including cold and the fact that Trump’s nomination is a foregone conclusion.  But he also thinks that it’s another example of lackluster enthusiasm on the part of Republicans (something we’ve seen for the last couple of years.)

For all of the context-free “if I could talk to the animals” pieces about Trump voters in diners, the political media’s coverage of Iowa voters doesn’t talk much about the role of Fox News and allied conservative outlets as cynicism factories.  The daily Fox message is “everything is fucked up and bullshit,” which is a easy message since on any given day of the year, things are fucked up and bullshit.  What Fox is missing, in marketing speak, is a Call to Action (CTA).  “Everything’s fucked up, vote for Trump” is not a valid CTA when their audience has voted for Trump once and, let’s face it, have gotten very damn little.

Anyone with two eyes, two ears and a barely functioning brain can figure out that things were still fucked up and bullshit under Trump’s benighted reign — and whether you agree or disagree with them, there are a lot of Iowa Republicans with eyes, ears and at least a wee bit of common sense.  The one “real” accomplishment of the Trump era, Dobbs, is a hobby horse for a smaller percentage of the Republican electorate than I think is usually recognized, especially if it means your daughter might bleed to death because her OB is afraid of doing an emergency D&C without approval of the church and the district attorney. His tax cuts weren’t that great for middle-class, older voters.  Trump never did build his wall:  voters in rural states like Iowa realize that you can’t run a packing plant or a pig confinement operation without migrant labor, so I’m guessing that migrant caravans might be something that people complain about, but it’s not enough to get voters to a high school gym when it’s -20 and blowing snow.

Finally, Trump’s schtick isn’t new anymore, and his legal troubles have made him (and his rhetoric) far more inward-focused than he was in 2016.  Never forget that Trump had the most free media of any candidate in modern history, The Apprentice.  You could see why Iowa voters would be excited about him 8 years ago when he was a shiny new toy.  Today, he’s no more exciting than boring DeSantis, or brown/female Hayley.  Better to stay home on the recliner than to risk frostbite to vote for any of them.

TurnoutPost + Comments (270)

So Much Winning

by WaterGirl|  January 16, 20241:05 pm| 129 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Trump Indictments

While i am (impatiently) waiting for a ruling on Trump’s immunity claims from the appeals court, which may not even come today, though I still think it might, let us savor.

NEW: The DC Circuit Court DENIES a re-hearing en banc of Twitter’s appeal of Jack Smith’s search warrant of Trump’s Twitter account information. Womp womp, Elmo. pic.twitter.com/r5EAJXg8Vl

— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) January 16, 2024

🌼

This https://t.co/OzTcdeZWJv

— Mueller, She Wrote (@MuellerSheWrote) January 16, 2024

Do you feel like we “waited for Mueller”?  From one perspective, I kind of fell like I did.  Of course I was politically active in the meantime, but for quite some time I thought Mueller would save us.  Mueller did good work, but he most definitely did not save us.

🌼

Damn. The judge in the E. Jean Carroll case just said this to the jurors: “It has been determined already that Mr. Trump did sexually assault Ms. Carroll, that he knew when he made the statements about Ms. Carroll that [they] were false, that he made them with reckless disregard”

— Victor Shi (@Victorshi2020) January 16, 2024

Open thread.

So Much WinningPost + Comments (129)

The Ron DeSantis Challenge Open Thread

by WaterGirl|  January 16, 20249:15 am| 203 Comments

This post is in: Elections 2024, Open Threads

As far as I can tell, this tweet that Anne Laurie posted recently is the only good thing DeSantis or his campaign has ever done.

The Ron DeSantis Challenge: Can you name even one good thing that he or his campaign has ever done, besides put together the video below?

Vivek copies B. O. if any of you are still duped by him, you might change your mind after watching this. pic.twitter.com/p2slCCB4YW

— JKash 🍊MAGA Queen (@JKash000) January 14, 2024

In case you can’t come up with anything else good Desantis has done, please feel free to list the WORST thing you think he and his campaign has ever done. Bonus points if you can explain why that’s the worst thing.

The Ron DeSantis Challenge Open Thread

Think of it as a early roast for the going away party for Ron.  On Monday, when I first put this post together, I had written this, but sadly, it looks like we’ll have Ron DeSantis to kick around for awhile longer.  Maybe just two more weeks?

He surely won’t be in the race after, what, Wednesday?  Or maybe by Wednesday they will figure out that he’s toast, but they will think that if they wait a week maybe no one will notice and it will be less humiliating to drop out.

*Pausing the campaign also counts as dropping out.

Open thread.

The Ron DeSantis Challenge Open ThreadPost + Comments (203)

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Back to Work

by Anne Laurie|  January 16, 20248:29 am| 108 Comments

This post is in: Biden Administration in Action, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Stupidity, Vote Like Your Country Depends On It

???? pic.twitter.com/H7igEiwDJU

— Schinako Moriyama?????????? (@schinako) January 14, 2024


Don’t think this drawing is political, but given the past few days (both IRL & online) somehow it feels right for the moment.

Schools stay shut and flights are grounded as dangerously cold wind chills blast much of the US https://t.co/QNurZ798Wt

— The Associated Press (@AP) January 16, 2024

Somewhere in Mormon Heaven, Harry Reid is smiling. #WeMatter https://t.co/8AO95IecNO

— Eric Michael Garcia (@EricMGarcia) January 16, 2024

show full post on front page

Advocates work to get Native American voters registered in the key state of Arizona https://t.co/EQZjjZEgfu pic.twitter.com/SnorEmLVJE

— ?? R Saddler (@Politics_PR) January 13, 2024

President @JoeBiden and I call on Congress to pass the Freedom to Vote Act and the John Lewis Voting Rights Advancement Act to ensure that everyone can access the ballot box.

— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) January 14, 2024

The President’s large, enthusiastic (and growing) grassroots donor based is one of the untold stories of the election imo.

1 million donors, 130,000 of whom give every month — and we’re barely a few days into election year. https://t.co/5W2SMdPuoQ

— Rob Flaherty (@Rob_Flaherty) January 15, 2024

Trevor Noah is a good, and generous, man:

Trevor Noah remains hopeful for the U.S. election and points to the Daily Show team as the spot for "all of your satire that covers the news" in this Election year. "The Daily Show is still there, and you're looking at them," Noah said. pic.twitter.com/hZ0gD0l3D9

— AP Entertainment (@APEntertainment) January 16, 2024

Schadenfreude alert!

Ramaswamy told staff in a private meeting he will endorse Trump on stage tonight in Iowa, in minutes, sources told me.

— Jennifer Jacobs (@JenniferJJacobs) January 16, 2024

With Vivek suspending his campaign, Elon continues his unbroken streak of absolute dogshit, bargain basement, aged-like-milk-in-the-sun political predictions. pic.twitter.com/pWtGaT7xAV

— Brian Tyler Cohen (@briantylercohen) January 16, 2024

Tuesday Morning Open Thread: Back to WorkPost + Comments (108)

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