Balloon Juice - Open Threads Archives

Friday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie| August 8, 20257:08 am| 119 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat, Space

The Hubble Space Telescope has captured the best picture yet of a high-speed comet visiting our solar system from another star.

[image or embed]

— The Associated Press (@apnews.com) August 8, 2025 at 3:30 AM

===

US Senators Wyden, Warren launch probe into UnitedHealth over alleged nursing home payments reut.rs/4muX4Jj

[image or embed]

— Reuters (@reuters.com) August 7, 2025 at 6:45 AM

===

More than two weeks ago I called for Democratic governors to redistrict 30 Republicans out of their seats.
I stand by that.

[image or embed]

— Marc Elias (@marcelias.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 8:22 PM

===

BREAKING: A Federal judge orders a temporary halt to the construction of the Florida immigration detention center dubbed "Alligator Alcatraz."

[image or embed]

— The Associated Press (@apnews.com) August 7, 2025 at 3:01 PM

===

Because in 2025, survival is a strategy and freedom is a coin toss, here is an immigration lawyer-approved playbook to help your odds if a loved one or family member gets detained by a federal agent.
By Erick Galindo
Full story: lataco.com/fight-deport…

[image or embed]

— L.A. TACO (@lataco.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 7:36 PM

===

During the egg shortage every grocery store was perfectly comfortable posting signs like "due to avian flu, we don't have many eggs and the ones we do have are 12.99" or whatever. They should absolutely put up signs about the tariffs increasing prices

[image or embed]

— Hemry, Local Bartender (@bartenderhemry.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 12:32 AM

===

two? sure, why not, but they have to make hi res video available for download for free and let @niedermeyer.online narrate it

[image or embed]

— GOLIKEHELLMACHINE (@golikehellmachine.com) August 8, 2025 at 2:09 AM

===

Friday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (119)

Rooting for Injuries Open Thread: Don TACO, Not A Happy Dude

by Anne Laurie| August 7, 202510:54 pm| 57 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republicans in Disarray!, Trumpery

yeah i think this is roughly the correct take.
The shock and awe phase is long gone, now they're in dogfights across the admin and it's not going particularly well.

[image or embed]

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:42 PM

I’m sure you’re all just as crushed by this as I am. Jonathan Lemire, at the Atlantic — “Things Aren’t Going Donald Trump’s Way” [gift link]:

… A president who, less than a year ago, staged a historic political comeback and moved to quickly conquer Washington and the world now confronts more obstacles than at any point since his inauguration. Some of his central campaign promises—that he would end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and boost the economy—are in peril. And for the first time in his 200 days back in office, the White House has begun to worry about members of the president’s own party defying him.

Tomorrow, the clock runs out on the two-week window that Trump gave Russia to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine. The president has been upset by his inability to end the war. Without an agreement, he has said, he will impose sanctions on Russia. But doing so would represent the first time in his decade in politics that he has truly punished President Vladimir Putin. Trump likewise has grown exasperated with Israel’s prosecution of the war in the Gaza Strip, a conflict that could soon escalate; Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyhu said today that his military plans to fully occupy the famine-plagued Strip…

Those geopolitical and economic headwinds have been joined by forceful political ones. Since going out on August recess, Republican lawmakers have been heckled at town halls while trying to defend the president’s signature legislative accomplishment, the One Big Beautiful Bill. And some of those same Republicans, in a rare act of rebellion, have questioned Trump’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein matter, a scandal that the president, try as he may, simply has been unable to shake.

The mood in the White House has darkened in the past month, as the president’s challenges have grown deeper. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has become intensely frustrating for Trump, two White House officials and a close outside adviser told me. The president had truly believed that his relationship with Putin would bring about a quick end to the conflict. But instead, Putin has taken advantage of Trump’s deference to him and has openly defied the president—“embarrassed him,” one of the officials told me—by ignoring his calls for a cease-fire and ratcheting up his strikes on Ukrainian cities. Trump has sharply criticized his Russian counterpart in recent weeks as he’s mulled what to do…

Any president, of course, can be vexed by events outside his nation’s borders. Trump’s superpower at home has long been to command intense loyalty from fellow Republicans. Yet that power might be hitting its limit. He was able to pressure the GOP to pass his One Big Beautiful Bill last month, but some Republicans, seeing its shaky poll numbers, have already tried to distance themselves from it; Senator Josh Hawley, for instance, has said he wants to roll back some of the Medicaid cuts that the bill, which he voted for, included. And lawmakers who are trying to defend the bill are facing voter anger. Representative Mike Flood was loudly heckled by a hostile crowd at a town hall in his Nebraska district on Monday. One of the White House officials told me that the West Wing has told House leadership to advise Republican members against holding too many in-person town halls.

show full post on front page

Then there is Epstein. Trump has desperately wished the story away. He feels deeply betrayed by his MAGA supporters who believed him when he intimated during the campaign that something was nefarious about the government’s handling of the case, and who now have a hard time believing him when he says their suspicions are actually bogus. The president has snapped at reporters asking about Epstein, told House Speaker Mike Johnson to send Congress home early to avoid a vote on whether to release the Epstein files, and sued his on-again, off-again friend Rupert Murdoch for $10 billion after The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump had sent Epstein a lewd birthday card in 2003. Murdoch hasn’t backed down. Neither have a number of MAGA luminaries and Republican lawmakers who keep demanding to see the files…

Some Trump allies still believe that the president, even as a lame duck, will keep Republicans in line. “Having survived Russiagate, Hillary Clinton, two impeachments, four trials designed to put him in jail, and two assassination attempts,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich told me, “it’s unlikely the current situation will be much of a problem.”

The White House also pushed back against the idea that Trump is in a perilous moment. “Only the media industrial complex and panicans would mischaracterize this as a challenging time. They simply haven’t learned anything after covering President Trump for the last 10 years,” the spokesperson Steven Cheung told me in a statement. “The successes of the first 200 days have been unprecedented and exactly what Americans voted for, which is why this country has never been hotter.”

But others in the party sense signs of trouble. “He’s spending the political capital he’s accumulated for a decade,” Alex Conant, a GOP strategist who worked in President George W. Bush’s White House and on then-Senator Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign, told me. “Below the surface of the Republican Party, there’s an intense battle brewing over what a post-Trump GOP looks like. And that surfaces on issues like Israel, the debt, and Epstein. How Trump navigates that fight over the remainder of his presidency will be a big test.”…

Trump has long believed that he can create his own truth, often by telling the same falsehood over and over again. He seems to be trying that tactic again too, especially with the economy. Trump’s response to the disastrous July jobs report was to assert, with no evidence, that the Bureau of Labor Statistics had incorrectly reported the statistics to hurt him politically—and then fire the commissioner. That sent a chill through the markets and the business world, which need reliable statistics to function, and sparked fears that Trump will try to bend other government data to his whims.

When it comes to his own political standing, Trump is also trying to create his own reality, seeming to will away the challenges he faces. In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, he insisted that he has “the best poll numbers I’ve ever had,” claiming that his approval was north of 70 percent. But that number represented his approval among Republicans, the interviewer told him. In fact, his overall approval rating is hovering at just about 40 percent. When corrected, all Trump could do was call the whole thing “fake.”

It's like the death of Stalin, except in this case Stalin's not even dead. Yet.
Has anyone done a Thiel Jet Tracker?

— PhoenixWomanMN (@phoenixwomanmn.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 5:07 PM

Rooting for Injuries Open Thread: Don TACO, Not A Happy DudePost + Comments (57)

War for Ukraine Day 1,260: No Trilat, Only Bilat

by Adam L Silverman| August 7, 20259:44 pm| 16 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine

Last night I wrote in a comment:

There might be a Trump-Putin bilat, which is something Trump constantly seems to be chasing, but there’s not going to be a trilat with Zelenskyy. Putin’s made it very clear he won’t meet with Zelenskyy who he’s branded a NAZI, meaning he opposes Russia, as well as illegitimate.

Putin said he has nothing against meeting with Zelensky, but according to the war criminal, certain conditions must be met — and they are “still a long way off.”

However, he expressed interest in meeting with Trump, naming the UAE as one of the possible locations.
t.me/c/1377735387…

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 10:31 AM

“Witkoff touched on the idea of a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Zelenskyy, but Moscow left it without comment,” Ushakov said.

Exactly what Putin wants: to discuss one-on-one with Trump and freeze out Zelensky and Ukraine.

[image or embed]

— Christopher Miller (@christopherjm.ft.com) August 7, 2025 at 5:46 AM

From The Financial Times:

Russian leader Vladimir Putin will hold talks with US President Donald Trump as early as next week, the Kremlin said on Thursday, a day before the expiry of Trump’s 10-day deadline for Moscow to agree a ceasefire or face additional sanctions.

Putin suggested the meeting could take place in the United Arab Emirates.

“We have many friends who are ready to help us organise events of this kind. One of them is the president of the United Arab Emirates,” Putin said alongside UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al-Nahyan at the Kremlin on Thursday.

“I think we’ll decide, but this would be a perfectly suitable place,” Putin added.

The announcement of the first in-person meeting since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine came a day after Putin met Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow for talks that both sides described as productive.

“At the suggestion of the American side, an agreement was, in principle, reached upon holding a bilateral meeting at the highest level in the coming days, that is, a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump,” Putin aide Yury Ushakov said, according to state news agency Tass.

But the White House previously suggested this was a Russian initiative. “The Russians expressed their desire to meet with President Trump,” said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt on Wednesday.

Asked who initiated the proposed meeting, Putin on Thursday said both sides had expressed interest, adding: “It doesn’t matter who said the first word.”

The White House on Thursday indicated Trump would only meet Putin if the Russian leader agreed to sit down with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, something Putin has refused in the past.

But on Thursday afternoon Trump said a meeting with the Russian leader would not be contingent on Putin sitting down with Zelenskyy.

“He would like to meet with me, and I’ll do whatever I can to stop the killing,” Trump said.

“Witkoff touched on the idea of a trilateral meeting between Putin, Trump and Zelenskyy, but Moscow left it without comment,” Ushakov said. “We propose focusing primarily on preparing the bilateral meeting with Trump.”

Much more at the link.

Having Trump meet Putin without Zelensky being present is not only classic “about us, without us” for Ukraine, but dangerous: It’s likely Putin will get Trump to “agree” to a plan very disadvantageous to Ukraine, and then both will put pressure on Ukraine to agree.

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 5:16 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today, which included his assessment of meetings with Putin. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

show full post on front page

All Partners Understand Who Must Take Steps to End This War – Address by the President

7 August 2025 – 20:01

I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!

Today is the day of many talks and consultations with our partners. I have already spoken with Chancellor Merz, President Macron, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, IMF Managing Director Georgieva, and Albanian Prime Minister Rama. We also welcomed Romania’s Foreign Minister here in Ukraine today. This was her first visit to Ukraine since taking office. And here is what is important in all these talks. First, all partners understand who must take steps to end this war. This is Russia’s war, this is Russia’s aggression, and it is Russia that must agree to a ceasefire and engage in real diplomacy that can guarantee peace. Ukraine has unequivocal support, and I am extremely grateful to all our partners for that.

Everyone also agrees that Russia’s war against Ukraine is a war in Europe and against Europe. Every decision that will be made to end this war and guarantee security truly concerns all of Europe, not just one country. That’s why Europe’s voice must carry weight in the processes. And we are coordinating with our European leaders both regarding our conversations and our meetings to align all positions, and also regarding the work of each of us with other leaders to ensure that Europe’s positions are safeguarded. We are planning certain meetings on the continent.

Third, everyone knows for sure that in Russia, all key decisions are made by one person. And that this person fears U.S. sanctions. And that it is just that Ukraine be a participant in the negotiations. Russia’s war is against Ukraine, against our independence as the embodiment of the independence of every European nation. So the format of meetings, of leaders’ meetings, is, in particular, a trilateral format. And we discussed this in detail yesterday – several bilateral formats, the trilateral format, all the options. I am grateful to President Trump for his openness to seeking real solutions. Here in Ukraine, we are confident that this war can be ended with a lasting peace. But every step must be carefully considered to hit the mark.

There are positive signals from the IMF regarding their readiness to continue supporting Ukraine. Likewise, we are receiving clear and positive signals from the European Union. Thank you!

Today, there will also be a meeting of security advisors from Ukraine, other European countries, and the United States – President Trump’s representative will be there. All the details will be discussed. We need truly coordinated and thoroughly developed approaches in diplomacy. Later today, I will also speak with the President of the Council of Ministers of Italy, Giorgia Meloni. She always offers valuable advice.

I thank everyone who stands with us, who stands with Ukraine! And let us remember: the world stands united behind us as long as we remain united in defending Ukraine, our national interests, and our independence. We are doing everything to end the war with peace, a dignified peace.

Glory to Ukraine!

Georgia:

Marizi Kobakhidze, the mother of one of Georgia’s 60+ political prisoners, leading protesters onto Rustaveli Avenue, which will be beautifully blocked for the 253rd consecutive day. 🇬🇪✊

People like Marizi don’t give up.

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 1:03 PM

On the 17th anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Georgia, the crowd of protesters is massive.

This is day 253 of nonstop, nationwide protests against an illegitimate, pro-Russian regime.

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 12:41 PM

I can’t express what it means to see such a large crowd on day 253 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia—especially in this unbearable heat, in a small city where most have already escaped to cooler places. 🇬🇪✊

How can we not prevail against a Russian oligarch?

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 12:31 PM

On August 6, the 252nd day of continuous protests in Georgia, another protest march was held.

#GeorgiaProtests

[image or embed]

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 3:45 AM

“Glory to the Heroes!” — A rally/march is being held in Tbilisi to commemorate 17 years since the Russian military invasion of Georgia.

#GeorgiaProtsests
Day 253

[image or embed]

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 1:00 PM

On day 253 of daily, nationwide protests in Georgia, we march from Hero Square—honoring the fallen heroes of the 2008 war.

17 years ago today, Russia invaded Georgia. 20% of our country remains under occupation.

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 12:20 PM

🔴 August 7 marks 17 years since Russia’s invasion of #Georgia in 2008

💢Opposition leaders, international diplomatic missions, civil society activists, and others honoured the memory of the fallen heroes and civilians who lost their lives due to the Russian occupation.

❌Georgian Dream did not.

[image or embed]

— Batumelebi&Netgazeti (@netgazeti.org) August 7, 2025 at 10:23 AM

17 years ago, Russia invaded Georgia.
Today, Georgian mountaineers and activists marched to the line of creeping occupation—just hundreds of meters from our main highway.

Tied together with a mountain rope, we showed: we are bound by one cause—freedom. 🇬🇪

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 6:44 AM

We’re standing on Georgia’s main highway—just a few hundred meters from Russian-occupied territory. The occupation line runs close. We’re not allowed to step even an inch beyond the road.

Tied together with rope, mountaineers and activists stand united against occupation. 🇬🇪

[image or embed]

— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 6:49 AM

1️⃣ 17 years ago, on August 7, 2008, regular Russian occupation forces invaded Georgia.

📸 REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

[image or embed]

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:00 AM

2️⃣ On August 7, 2008, the long-standing Russian-Georgian conflict escalated into open military aggression by Russia, resulting in hundreds of casualties, ethnic cleansing, and the occupation of Georgian territories.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:00 AM

3️⃣ On August 12, 2008, a ceasefire agreement was signed, which Russia has been violating to this day.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:00 AM

4️⃣ The 6-point plan, among other provisions, states that the Georgian armed forces should return to their usual deployment areas; however, this has not been possible due to the ongoing Russian occupation.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:00 AM

5️⃣Russia continues its creeping occupation by erecting barbed wire, seizing land and property, and even abducting civilians.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:00 AM

‘

6️⃣ As a result of the actions of the Russian occupation forces, 228 Georgian civilians, 170 military personnel, and 14 police officers were killed. Approximately 150,000 people were displaced, many of whom remain unable to return to their homes.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:00 AM

1/ At today’s court hearing, Nino Datashvili spoke about how the police treated her following her detention on June 20. Nino Datashvili, a civic education teacher, was arrested at a bus stop on June 20.

#TerrorinGeorgia

[image or embed]

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

2/ She said that for several hours, she was not allowed to call her child or her lawyer. Datashvili also said that she was treated with cynicism and in a degrading manner, describing the treatment as inhumane:

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

3/ “They approached me at the bus stop. They didn’t inform me of my rights, they snatched my phone, they weren’t in uniform — I couldn’t understand what was happening or who they were”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

4/ “I had no idea they were police. I needed my phone to contact my child. I was worried about my kid and kept asking to use the phone. They tricked me into getting in the car, saying they’d let me make a call”.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

5/ „The amount of stress they put me through — their cynical attitude, the inhumane behavior on the way… I kept thinking: why are they treating me like this? What did I do? I was simply asking to call either my child or my lawyer.”

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

6/ She also said that she was denied access to a toilet for several hours.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

7/ On June 21, Judge Eka Barbakadze ordered pretrial detention for Nino Datashvili, a civic education teacher charged with assaulting a public official—a crime punishable by a fine or 4 to 7 years in prison.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

8/ The charges stem from a June 9 incident at Tbilisi City Court, where Datashvili attempted to approach courtroom No. 1 during a hearing for detained pro-European protesters.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

9/ After a bailiff blocked her, a verbal and physical altercation followed. Video footage shows Datashvili sitting on a windowsill in protest before being forcibly removed.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

10/ Today the court ordered the detained teacher to remain in pretrial detention.

— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:41 PM

Seems like the 8-party-alliance is gaining further traction with a series of successful events and rallies (although, of course, the 2008 invasion anniversary isn’t their rally). #GeorgiaProtests

[image or embed]

— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:29 PM

The US:

At some point, he really has to stop being so freaking confusing!

What do you mean the deadline you set for putin is now up to putin? How is that supposed to work?

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:38 PM

Back to Ukraine.

Based on an early look at several dozen hits over the past 2 weeks, both the success rate and damage from Ukrainian long-range drones have gone up compared to late 2024–early 2025. I haven’t put together the dataset yet, but even at a glance, the results already look different

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 1:08 AM

2/ The only area where these strikes fall short is in comparison to outliers like the Toropets and Tikhoretsk ammo depot hits in 2024, which were exceptionally successful. But if we focus on the median rather than the average, excluding outliers, the quality of strikes went up

— Tatarigami (@tatarigami.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 1:08 AM

A map of Russian oil refineries recently targeted following the renewed wave of Ukrainian strikes.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:29 AM

Wow! How beautiful! The tower flew off from a powerful explosion with special effects of a fire show! 🔥
The video shows a russian tank with its crew destroyed.
Great job! 💙💪

[image or embed]

— Vitalis Viva (@vitalisviva.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 1:14 PM

A fiber optics FPV drone flies under a Russian bridge and detonates planted TM-62 mines, bringing down the entire bridge

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 5:19 AM

Complete vaporization of a fully loaded Russian BM-21 Grad along with its crew by FPV drone strike. Unfortunately, the explosion itself was not captured on camera.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 12:01 AM

“The war must end in a way that benefits us. That means we must win, not retreat,” — said Syrskyi.

According to the Commander-in-Chief, Ukraine must inflict such losses on the enemy that it is forced to end the war — not from a position of strength, but on Ukraine’s terms.

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:19 PM

Kharkiv:

Explosion in Kharkiv ‼️the city is under russian drone attack right now.

It was a very loud one, car alerts outside are all beeping, and the windows rattled a bit.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:56 PM

I’m so incredibly tired of guessing if my loved ones are alright after another explosion shakes our city at night. Of sitting there, wondering if I should call them just to make sure or if calling would only scare them more.

Tired of feeling small and powerless every time they strike.

1/3

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 6:38 PM

Tired of telling myself not to spend a single extra coin, because what if they damage our home again?

Tired of carefully choosing my words every time we say goodbye because hell knows where the next drone will hit. Maybe it’s the last goodbye.

2/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 6:38 PM

I just want to have a life again.

On the picture is a fire in Kharkiv after the russian drone strike.

3/3

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 6:38 PM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Ukrainian drone evaded five interception attempts by the Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system on it’s way to Crimea.

[image or embed]

— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 6:48 AM

Meanwhile, the hot summer continues in Crimea. Smoke can be seen in the mountains near Sudak. Russian channels report that at least 9 Storm Shadow missiles hit the peninsula.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 4:55 AM

Russian occupied Donetsk:

Another day, another round of glorious “improvements” from Russia. This time, it’s the water supply getting a makeover. In temporarily occupied Donetsk, on the very day water was turned on, it came straight out of the tap with detergent included. Isn’t that just delightful?

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 2:49 PM

Pokrovsk:

The press service of the 7th Air Assault Corps provided Ukrainian media with a video showing the clearing of Pokrovsk from RF sabotage and reconnaissance groups. For over a month, the enemy has been trying to infiltrate the city. The main goal of the SRGs is to amass manpower for further actions.

[image or embed]

— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 11:31 AM

Kherson:

After enduring a Russian occupation, a manmade flood, and drone attacks that turned its streets into a human safari, the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson could soon be made completely unlivable, writes Francis Farrell.

[image or embed]

— The Kyiv Independent (@kyivindependent.com) August 5, 2025 at 4:17 PM

From The Kyiv Independent:

After enduring a Russian occupation, a manmade flood, and drone attacks that turned its streets into a human safari, the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson could soon be made completely unlivable.

The extended range of Russian drones flown from across the Dnipro River has brought the main roads supplying Kherson — particularly the main highway connecting the city to Mykolaiv — under attack from the skies.

Meanwhile, on Aug. 2 and 3, Russian forces struck the road bridge to the Korabel neighborhood in the southwest of the city, seeking to destroy the only road connection between it and the mainland.

Kherson, with a pre-war population of 280,000, was the only new Ukrainian regional capital to be occupied in Russia’s full-scale invasion, falling to Russian forces in the first week of March. Ukrainian forces liberated it in November that year.

As of July, less than 65,000 people remain in Kherson, according to local authorities.

Those who have held out inside the city have done so amid an increasingly intense and far-reaching campaign of Russian strike drone attacks on civilian residents across the river, in a phenomenon that has been nicknamed a “human safari.”

These drones reach further with every passing month, while Russian airstrikes and assaults on the Dnipro Delta islands are also intensifying, putting the future of normal life in Kherson under grave doubt.

Since all of Kherson Oblast on the western bank of the Dnipro River was liberated in 2022, the river itself has become a new front line of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Soon after, fighting began in the low-lying islands of the Dnipro River Delta, including those situated directly across from central Kherson.

The delta and the islands within it are a contested gray zone, where both Ukrainian and Russian forces operate, attempting to improve their positions.

In reality, the inability of soldiers on the islands to properly dig in due to the swampy ground means that troops from both sides are exposed on a permanent basis.

Nonetheless, Russian strikes on the Kherson front have escalated significantly in the past few months, spokesperson for the Ukrainian military’s southern command Vladyslav Voloshyn told the Kyiv Independent.

In addition to a higher rate of strikes by drones, artillery, and glide bombs, Russian forces have also increased attempts to conduct assaults on the islands themselves — so far unsuccessfully, losing two to three boats per day, Voloshyn said.

The increase in attacks across the river has led to speculation that Russia is preparing a larger ground offensive onto the western bank of the Dnipro, including into Kherson itself.

Voloshyn said that Russia is still far from having the capability to succeed in such an operation.

“It is very difficult to hide the troops, boats, and other equipment needed for that,” he said, “because our satellites and aerial reconnaissance will quickly spot such a concentration. At the moment, there is no evidence of such plans.”

“And if they gather 30 people, and they cross as a sabotage group, will they be able to capture Kherson? Unlikely.”

Much more at the link including pictures.

Krasnodar Krai, Russia:

Good morning, fascist Russia – time to wake up: A dense plume of smoke rises from the burning Afipsky Oil Refinery in Krasnodar region following a strike by a Ukrainian drone.

[image or embed]

— Euan MacDonald (@euanmacdonald.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 1:57 AM

The Afipsky Oil Refinery is one of the most modern in Russia.

Thanks to its deep oil refining capabilities (over 90%) and a delayed coking unit, it produces (or produced 😉) a maximum amount of light oil products with minimal waste.

[image or embed]

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 8:25 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today. Here is some adjacent material.

Sunday lunch at one of the dog homes we installed for now-homeless pets in eastern Ukraine! These were handmade locally in Kramatorsk for the Hachiko team, and they are set up in areas where there’s no indoor shelter.

[image or embed]

— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) July 27, 2025 at 3:05 PM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,260: No Trilat, Only BilatPost + Comments (16)

Open Thread: Run, Andy, Run!… for Senate

by Anne Laurie| August 7, 20256:43 pm| 56 Comments

This post is in: Local Races, Open Threads

If Democrats can pull it together…Andy Beshear will run for Senate vs POTUS.
We need a senate seat and he can pull it off. I’m not so sure about POTUS🤷🏾‍♀️

— Miss Aja (@brat2381.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 8:20 PM

Mike Murphy is “a longtime Republican strategist and campaign manager and co-director of the Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California”. Keeping that in mind, per the Bulwark:

Kentucky’s two-term Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is seriously exploring a possible 2028 race for president after his term ends in 2027.

That would be a mistake. In the modern Democratic primary electorate, a white male candidate with a moderate record would face an uphill battle.

So, what is an ambitious, talented Democratic governor with a long record of winning races in ruby-red Kentucky to do? Simple: Run for retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s open seat. Beshear could win and become a national hero to Democrats hoping to seize control of the Senate next year.

Beshear’s fellow Democratic governor, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, took that path last week, jumping into the race for retiring GOP Sen. Thom Tillis’s now-open seat. As a well-liked, moderate Democrat, Cooper is such a strong Senate contender that even Donald Trump became an overnight Mr. Chicken, quickly squelching his higher-office-craving daughter-in-law Lara’s plans to run for the seat herself as the Republican nominee. Trump could smell an embarrassing North Carolina loss coming all the way down in Mar-a-Lago. And nothing gives the POTUS the heebie-jeebies more than the specter of a Trump giving a concession speech…

… Republicans were still recovering from Georgia’s popular Republican Governor Brian Kemp’s decision in May to pass on what most handicappers thought would be a victorious run for Georgia’s Democratic-held Senate seat, leaving the GOP nomination open to a bunch of second-tier contenders, each of whom carry a few tons of the GOP’s au courant tinfoil hat baggage. So give incumbent Democratic Sen. John Ossoff a decent edge to hold on.

What else is in play? Wily Maine survivor Susan Collins is up for reelection. Her races are often tight and never certain. Other GOP incumbents who hold advantages but are not home free include Joni Ernst in Iowa and John Cornyn in Texas, who faces a tough primary against the state’s lightning-rod attorney general, Ken Paxton, who would be a far less attractive general-election candidate.

show full post on front page

Finally, there are the metal-bending states of Michigan and Ohio, both likely to feel the worst effects of Trump’s painful tariff policy next year on manufacturing and automotive jobs. Michigan is an open seat and Ohio freshman Sen. Jon Husted could provide a longshot opportunity for Democrats if the state’s voters feel enough economic pain next year. Finally, quirky Alaska politics can fuel upsets, and if she runs, former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola could be a formidable challenger to incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan…

If next year does become a historically typical “wave” election fueled by midterm frustrations, high Trump negatives, and voter anger about the economy and prices, Beshear could be the real Democratic hero of the moment, achieving the magical fourth win that would give Democrats majority control of the Senate and change everything. And doing it by winning Mitch McConnell’s old seat! Ah the irony.

Still, there are no guarantees. Other Democratic governors from red states, like Evan Bayh of Indiana and Phil Bresdesan of Tennessee, have run for Senate and flamed out. In state races, Democratic gubernatorial candidates can create their own independent images. In a Senate contest, moderate Democratic candidates find themselves awkwardly trapped defending Bernie Sanders and AOC. But in plenty of Senate-flipping midterm elections (like 1986, 1994, 2006, and 2014) strong Senate candidates with local muscle can ride the wave to victory…

If he runs for Senate, I will cheerfully donate to his campaign. He's smart and I can see him doing some good for KY after McConnell's ruinous tenure.

— THEE NWMagpie – #KHive – ICE Delenda Est – NO KINGS (@thenwmagpie.bsky.social) January 19, 2025 at 11:11 PM

===

Proud to share this episode with Andy Beshear. When it comes to standing up for folks, actions matter most. Catch the full episode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWv2lidq_sI #AtOurTable #PullUpASeat

[image or embed]

— Jaime Harrison (@jaimeharrison.bsky.social) August 6, 2025 at 9:28 AM

Open Thread: Run, Andy, Run!… for SenatePost + Comments (56)

Spring Hopping (Open Thread)

by Betty Cracker| August 7, 20253:29 pm| 80 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

Bill and I both finished work by mid-morning, and it’s a hot day, so we went to a nearby swimming hole to cool off.

Fresh water spring with clear water and green trees in the background against a partly cloudy sky.

It’s a swimming hole I haven’t visited in decades, near a town where my aunt used to live (she’s still with us but moved years ago). She took us swimming there a lot when my sister and I were kids.

There used to be a rope swing on the far shore, but the park has been Disneyfied to mitigate legal liability. So, no more thrilling leap from a low branch to swing out over cypress stumps and let go at the furthest point your momentum carries you. Still fun though!

Afterward, we had lunch at a mom and pop place that serves exceptional pies and standard diner fare. I was virtuous and did not have pie, but I did nab a hush puppy off the mister’s plate when he wasn’t looking. An outstanding hush puppy!

Sign that says, “We don’t have wi-fi. Talk to each other! Pretend it’s 1986.

Above is the diner’s response to the 21st century. Good for them! However, there was a man with a booming voice at an adjacent table who I wish had a phone to look at instead of holding forth about Kids Today.™️

Jesus, what a tiresome old fart. (We’re about the same age.) Bill and I exchanged looks and rolled our eyes a dozen times. We were relieved when a pie arrived at that dude’s table so he could put his pie hole to better use than social criticism.

Looked like a first rate pie too! Gonna have to stop by just for pie at some point.

Speaking of pie, our lime trees are almost played out for the season. I think there are enough left for a pitcher of margs and a lime pie. We don’t grow key limes, but the pie is every bit as good as you can find in Key West, if I do say so myself.

That’s all I’ve got. Hope y’all are having a pleasant afternoon (or whatever period of day it is where you are). Peace out.

Spring Hopping (Open Thread)Post + Comments (80)

Trumpery Open Thread: Jingling the Census Keys

by Anne Laurie| August 7, 202511:55 am| 109 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads, Republican Stupidity, Lock Him Up...Lock Them All Up

Importantly the way this undercounts people probably hurts Republicans.

[image or embed]

— Schnorkles O'Bork (@schnorkles.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 8:13 AM

===

Didn't they try this same thing in 19 or 20?

— Brugroffil (@brugroffil.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 8:24 AM

===

He did. And the current SCOTUS rejected it. He was sued 2 or 3 times over it and lost every time.

— lynn0908.bsky.social (@lynn0908.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 9:45 AM

===

Unfortunately for Don TACO, But I wanna! is not a legal strategy…

Just from a logistical standpoint it is not feasible to conduct a "new" mid-decade census with accuracy. To give a sense of the scale of what is required, preparations are already underway for the *2030* census. This will add chaos to the Census Bureau and degrade the accuracy of the 2030 census

[image or embed]

— Michael McDonald (@electproject.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 8:19 AM

Support for congressional appropriations for a new census are not guaranteed among Republicans since there are Republican members from states like Florida and Texas where the states will lose seats, and Republicans use noncitizens to draw *Republican* held districts (e.g., South Florida and Texas).

From a legal standpoint, the constitution and federal law is clear that congressional apportionment and redistricting are to be done with the 2020 decennial census. Where not prohibited in state constitutions or law, states could redistrict state legislative districts

In addition to navigating the political quagmire of Republican states and members representing districts with noncitizens, there are other constituencies that need accurate census data:

– businesses to make investment decisions
– police to allocate resources
– health to monitor disease outbreaks

It is not possible to conduct a new census and draw new districts for the November 2026 elections:

Congress has to appropriate money

AND

Census has to gear up and report new numbers

AND

States must draw new districts

All before 2026 primary candidate filing deadlines, which are months away

On top of this, each of these steps can and will be litigated, adding further delays

Hard to know what goes on in Trump’s head, but it could be that the “new” census is a new and improved 2030 census, not a mid-decade census. The 14th Amendment Sec. 2 requires the census to count “the whole number of persons in each State” so changes to the 2030 census would be litigated

Full details laid out here:

Trump is calling for a "new" census that excludes people in the U.S. without legal status. The 14th Amendment requires the "whole number of persons in each state" in a key set of census results.

[image or embed]

— NPR (@npr.org) August 7, 2025 at 9:16 AM

===

Also, it costs about $15 billion to conduct the census under normal conditions, probably more if they’re rushing it.

[image or embed]

— Kevin M. Kruse (@kevinmkruse.bsky.social) August 7, 2025 at 8:23 AM

Trumpery Open Thread: Jingling the Census KeysPost + Comments (109)

It Didn’t Have To Be This Way

by WaterGirl| August 7, 202510:15 am| 175 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

I try hard not to vent like this, but damn, it’s gratifying to read this from the Liberal Librarian at The Establishment Bar.

Power comes from the ballot; exercise it, or those who have ill-intent certainly will.

mRNA vaccines are a wonder of modern science. They unarguably prevented the COVID pandemic death toll from coming even close to the numbers of the 1918 flu. And now brainworm-eaten Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is canceling all funding for vaccine development.

Answer me this, those of you who couldn’t bring yourselves to vote for Kamala Harris: Was it worth it? Is this what you thought your apathy would get you? Are you reveling in the damage you’ve caused? Because this is a direct result of you either voting 3rd party, staying home, or reluctantly voting for “Killer Kamala” while rhetorically doing everything you could to suppress the vote.

These vaccines will still be researched. But not in the United States. Our competitors will advance by leaps and bounds, while we become, at least for now, a sad, lonely backwater. We will cease to be the source of new discoveries, and will have to hope that this regime will allow those discoveries to be distributed here.

Has Gaza been “freed”? Are grocery prices down? Are you still more interested in voting off a cast member on “Love Island” than in ensuring that your children have a better life than you had? Petulance and purity have cast us on this raft in the middle of the ocean, with beasts of the deep circling us.

No, it didn’t have to be this way. And yet it did. Because for far too long too many of our fellow citizens have seen democracy and its maintenance as something that doesn’t concern them. Or they see in democracy only a failure to provide them with things they think they deserve, while doing no work to bring about those things. What we are going through now is a direct result of the infantilization of the American voter, the demand for instant gratification, the denial of expertise and experience.

Was it worth it to destroy your lives and those of your neighbors for you to maintain your principles? The dissolution of USAID will lead to millions of deaths. You who bray about “genocide”: What do you say to that? Do those lives not count? Of course, I know the answer to that. So do you.

Those who seek perfection will only reap dust. And those who simply don’t care about what happens outside of their own home will find no succor when the wolf breaks down the door. You couldn’t be bothered to vote, and will lose your Medicaid. You couldn’t be bothered to put a mail-in ballot into your drop-off, and you will see everything in your life get materially worse. Gaza was more important than those who live next door to you. A bit of inflation after a world-upending pandemic was enough to make you forget the elation you felt when the election was called in 2020. You are the most unserious people to ever compose the public of an empire.

Yes, I blame the electorate. It has the power. And when it refuses to vote to make everyone’s lives better, I will blame it. Power comes from the ballot; exercise it, or those who have ill-intent certainly will.

I hope the pain and death through which we shall go will offer a salutary lesson. But no one ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American public. We are a proudly anti-intellectual, hyper-individualistic people, unconcerned with matters of community. I got mine, screw you. Or I got nothing, I want you to have less. It’s disgusting, but it’s our history.

Was it worth it? I fear I know what the answer will be for many of you.

Open thread.

It Didn’t Have To Be This WayPost + Comments (175)

Beware of advice from anyone for whom Democrats are “they” and not “we.”

Trump should be leading, not lying.

I’ve spoken to my cat about this, but it doesn’t seem to do any good.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory. oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

Those who are easily outraged are easily manipulated.

Fear and negativity are contagious, but so is courage!

The arc of history bends toward the same old fuckery.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Republicans do not trust women.

Someone should tell Republicans that violence is the last refuge of the incompetent, or possibly the first.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

No offense, but this thread hasn’t been about you for quite a while.

Within six months Twitter will be fully self-driving.

One way or another, he’s a liar.

Black Jesus loves a paper trail.

Sadly, media malpractice has become standard practice.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

I like political parties that aren’t owned by foreign adversaries.

The next time the wall street journal editorial board speaks the truth will be the first.

The words do not have to be perfect.

Baby steps, because the Republican Party is full of angry babies.

Shallow, uninformed, and lacking identity

Accountability, motherfuckers.

Friday Morning Open Thread

Rooting for Injuries Open Thread: Don TACO, Not A Happy Dude

War for Ukraine Day 1,260: No Trilat, Only Bilat

All Partners Understand Who Must Take Steps to End This War – Address by the President

Open Thread: Run, Andy, Run!… for Senate

Spring Hopping (Open Thread)

Trumpery Open Thread: Jingling the Census Keys

It Didn’t Have To Be This Way