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Speaker Johnson appears to have come up with a plan regarding the foreign military aid supplemental. It isn’t a good plan. It isn’t even a fully baked plan. But it is his plan.

https://twitter.com/JakeSherman/status/1779991549750698231

https://twitter.com/jamiedupree/status/1779993789001568265

https://twitter.com/HouseInSession/status/1779989790105956701

https://twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1779993620424094049

https://twitter.com/heatherscope/status/1779995872324989138

Good luck with that.

The Israelis have figured out this game and they are now reading the US for feckless filth:

https://twitter.com/Nadav_Eyal/status/1779933640580895042

Here’s a machine translation of the Hebrew: (emphasis mine)

There are reports that the political echelon has decided on a response in a quick timeframe. A response that they say will not lead to a regional war. But be “determined” and “resolute”. And that they understand that Iran will respond. for a response. which came in response to the Iranian attack. Maybe all this is psychological warfare on the way to a very smart move (let’s say a smart tactical move in Gaza actually). One can only hope. If not, here are my comments:
1. How will the system know what a determined military response is that will not cause war? As I have been posting for a few days now, the AMN and the Mossad in general have told the political level that their main assessment is that Tehran will absorb the elimination of Mahdoi. They also assessed that Hamas is deterred. Israel works with an intelligence community that is very good at tactical information and bad at understanding enemy intentions. And shows arrogance. This is not Just instills confidence.
2. If the response will be symbolic, no appropriate equation has been created for Iran’s (unbearable) attack. If the reaction is too harsh, it may lead to war. In such a situation, isn’t it better to adopt a policy of “we will choose the place and the time”? Giora Eiland, Gideon Sa’ar, Ron Ben Yishai, Amos Harel and many others think so.
3. The whole framing of “to respond or not to respond” is a lie. Of course you need to respond. The question is whether now. and public. I keep hearing this threatening talk of “need to respond” and it’s all false. There was no immediate response that night, and Israel can respond two months from now. in high or low signature. We have the ball. And all the talk of the equation of sorts: what will determine if an equation has been created that discourages us is our future behavior in relation to a situation similar to the one in Damascus.
4. An Israeli response is, of course, turning our backs on the West’s requests, which we have only recently improved our alliance with. It’s not bad in itself; The West proves in Ukraine that it knows how to stand by your side, but not completely and to the end. On the other hand, without him completely – Israel (or Ukraine) has no chance of really winning.
That’s why you need wisdom. And yes – the response may be measured and smart and wise. One that does not give the Iranians a reason to continue (can you imagine, an Iranian asset outside of Iran?). But wouldn’t it be more worthwhile to leverage the current situation for another, diplomatic event? Maybe it will happen again. There was talk last night. By and large, the Israeli system is Pavlovian conditioned to disdain for diplomacy. This is a mistake in such a war.
5. The most disturbing. Israel is led by a rather uniform security and political leadership, most of which carries a terrible failure, ego burn and a legacy that will accompany it into history. October 7. Alternatively: former chiefs of staff.
The parties compete who is more aggressive and leak that one or the other offered to respond that night. Because they are not a “girl with cuckoos”, to quote one common phrase in these circles.
I wonder if anyone in the discussions – I write someone because women unfortunately do not participate in them – raised the so civil issue of a holiday. Passover. of an entire people who are in post-trauma. Because if we respond, and then wait for Iran, we have arrived at Seder Pesach.
And yes – this is a consideration in war. It is also necessary to manage the spirit of the public. Churchill dealt with such things extensively. as well as in diplomacy. When necessary, he knew how to beg the Americans. But Churchill, unlike the leaders here, was not addicted to a military concept in the style of a rookie general.
6. I have every hope that there is some brilliant move made here by the Israeli system, and that things are not as transparent and dangerous as they seem from the outside. The goal of preventing a regional war is at the core of Israel’s goals in the war. Iran must pay a price, and Israel must continue to harm the Iranians who target terrorism on its territory. I’m not convinced that a transparent, quick, and public response will serve all of these goals. Many good people think like me.

This is why the Israelis have decided to hit Iran back as soon as possible, which Eyal also talks about in his tweet. When you look weak, because you are weak, your clients will ignore you, your allies will not be assured, and your adversaries will not be deterred. As for Bibi and his war cabinet: ayn strategik, raq taktik. No strategy, only tactics. I’ll have a bit more on this at the bottom of tonight’s update.

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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War for Ukraine Day 782: If the Opposite of Pro Is Con, Then the Opposite of Progress is a GOP Majority in CongressPost + Comments (44)