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Balloon Juice

Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Tide comes in. Tide goes out. You can’t explain that.

Do not shrug your shoulders and accept the normalization of untruths.

I have other things to bitch about but those will have to wait.

The republican caucus is covering themselves with something, and it is not glory.

Imperialist aggressors must be defeated, or the whole world loses.

Republicans got rid of McCarthy. Democrats chose not to save him.

I would try pessimism, but it probably wouldn’t work.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

Pessimism assures that nothing of any importance will change.

A democracy can’t function when people can’t distinguish facts from lies.

This is dead girl, live boy, a goat, two wetsuits and a dildo territory.  oh, and pink furry handcuffs.

Accountability, motherfuckers.

They want us to be overwhelmed and exhausted. Focus. Resist. Oppose.

They are lying in pursuit of an agenda.

Not loving this new fraud based economy.

It is not hopeless, and we are not helpless.

The most dangerous place for a black man in America is in a white man’s imagination.

“But what about the lurkers?”

“In this country American means white. everybody else has to hyphenate.”

They spent the last eight months firing professionals and replacing them with ideologues.

You don’t get rid of your umbrella while it’s still raining.

Never entrust democracy to any process that requires republicans to act in good faith.

The low info voters probably won’t even notice or remember by their next lap around the goldfish bowl.

There are some who say that there are too many strawmen arguments on this blog.

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Sunday Morning Open Thread

by Anne Laurie|  February 22, 20267:31 am| 109 Comments

This post is in: Local Races, Nature, Open Threads, Science & Technology

Now for something completely different:
This is too cool

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— Lady with an opinion (@ladymitopinion.bsky.social) February 20, 2026 at 4:57 PM

For you birders, ICYMI…

The return of the Hell Heron. How every modern Heron imagines itself. 1/2 ??
A UChicago-led team unearthed ‘Spinosaurus mirabilis,’ Hell Heron, a fish-eating giant and the first new species of its kind in a century, where nothing like it was supposed to exist
news.uchicago.edu/story/hell-h…

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— EveryHeron ?? (@everyheron.bsky.social) February 20, 2026 at 4:26 AM

“I envision this dinosaur as a kind of ‘hell heron’ that had no problem wading on its sturdy legs into two meters of water but probably spent most of its time stalking shallower traps for the many large fish of the day,” Sereno said. 2/2

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— EveryHeron ?? (@everyheron.bsky.social) February 20, 2026 at 4:26 AM

======
Sunday Morning Open Thread 21

It’s hardly an unbiased source, but on the other hand, I doubt many of you read Puck, so for entertainment purposes only — Abby Livingston, “Is Jasmine Crockett Even Trying to Win in Texas?”

By every conventional standard, Rep. Jasmine Crockett is running an underwhelming Senate primary campaign. Her Democratic rival, State Rep. James Talarico, has outraised her by a two-to-one margin; she’s getting swamped on television by Talarico ads; and she reportedly did not have a formal campaign manager as late as this month. And that was before Stephen Colbert publicly accused his CBS bosses of yanking his interview with Talarico, creating a Streisand effect that funneled national attention and another $2.5 million to his campaign. (The interview currently has more than 7 million views on YouTube.) In the aftermath, the pro-Talarico social media contingent was all but ready to stick a fork in Crockett’s Senate ambitions.

But Texans on the ground aren’t so sure. Talarico’s headline advantages notwithstanding, there’s enough credible private and public polling to suggest that Crockett could overcome them and win the primary on March 3. One recent poll showed Crockett up by eight points (with a four-point margin of error). “The fundamentals of the race have not corresponded or correlated with the public polling,” said a Texas Democrat. “Even squinting at them, I can’t really draw a picture of what’s happening in the race.”…

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For his part, Talarico boasts formidable campaign strengths. Having burst into the national consciousness with a Joe Rogan interview last summer, the young seminarian has managed to out-fundraise even Cornyn, a former N.R.S.C. chairman, pulling in $13 million over the course of the race, as reported earlier this month. (He recently reported a $1.5 million cash-on-hand advantage over Crockett.) The campaign and its allied groups have deployed these resources in a massive TV buy, booking $15.3 million in ads, according to AdImpact. Team Crockett has booked only $2.8 million. “She’s not spending to the level she would need to win,” said an unaligned Democratic strategist who handles TV buys. “I’m not saying she can’t win, but I’m saying the conventional wisdom is you cannot be this silent on the airwaves.”…

Still, there are serious operatives and officeholders in both parties who believe Crockett is on track to win the nomination. The polling has been all over the place, with each candidate in the lead depending on where you turn. That’s partly because there’s no recent historical precedent for a competitive Texas Democratic primary that could help predict turnout. Yes, there are signs that the unpredictable Hispanic voting bloc and suburban white women are migrating back to Democrats. But even the smartest strategists concede that they’re making educated guesses on polling samples, and nobody really knows who will show up to vote on March 3.

Crockett’s hypothetical path to victory would depend on consolidating the Black vote behind her in the big cities and East Texas, combined with other support derived from the high name recognition she’s built up over the years as one of the most bombastically engaged House Democrats on social media. (Lest we forget her 2024 “bleach blonde bad built butch body” comment about Marjorie Taylor Greene, Crockett sells merch with the quote.) The entire reason Talarico is spending all this money, after all, is to introduce himself to Texas Democratic primary voters—something that public polling suggests Crockett has already accomplished. Crockett’s own internal poll from the outset of her launch showed she had 82 percent name ID among Democratic voters, which tracks with internal polling I’m hearing about from other camps.

But can awareness, social media stardom, and a strong Black vote help Crockett overcome the millions of dollars being spent against her on television, digital advertising, and direct mail? The Crockett camp did not comment for this story, but for many outside operatives closely watching this race, Crockett’s campaign is a test of whether the traditional fundamentals of Democratic campaigns still hold in a post-Trump, post-television, social media–inflected era. If she does pull off a victory, it would be a historic development indeed.

Another potential harbinger of Democratic politics to come is the ferocity of online infighting—not so much between Crockett and Talarico, themselves, but among their supporters. State-based and national influencers are building followings in part around their superfandom of candidates, almost like political analogs to Swifties and K-pop stans. Unverified gossip and unsubstantiated personal attacks that have nothing to do with policy show up daily on Threads, TikTok, and X. “I wish this was treated with a little more seriousness,” said a native Texas Dem watching the race from Washington…

These jabs are child’s play compared to what the Republicans will throw at the eventual nominee. (Talarico has referred to God as “nonbinary”; Crockett’s greatest hits reel includes calling Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who uses a wheelchair, “Governor Hot Wheels,” though she has insisted it wasn’t a reference to his disability.) But given that Crockett and Talarico served in the state government together, and that there will be five months to heal before the general election really kicks off, there’s some confidence that whichever candidate wins on March 3 will be capable of uniting Texas Democrats.

Influencers, though, may not be so inclined to reconcile, given the incentives for conflict online. “What we are seeing in the Texas primary, with the fight between the influencers and not the just candidates, is a precursor to the 2028 election,” said Amanda Litman, the president of Run for Something. “The attention is going to be on influencers, who you cannot control and should not control, but who have a huge megaphone. People should be preparing themselves for how fucking terrible it will be.”…

Sunday Morning Open ThreadPost + Comments (109)

Sunday Morning Garden Chat: Garden Design Thoughts

by Anne Laurie|  February 22, 20264:44 am| 19 Comments

This post is in: Garden Chats

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 7
 
Master landscape designer / photographer Dan B, once again keeping hope alive:

I was inspired to muse on garden design from the last couple garden posts I sent.

I like doing color and textural echoes. This bed has ‘pink cupped’ (coral orange actually) daffodils and a soft orange Frittilaria imperialis. I enjoy the color link between two different bulbs with completely different shapes. It’s as though they’re speaking to each other in a teasing exchange.

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts

This Alstroemeria ‘Princess Frederica’ has a couple different colors. Next to this clump I planted an Alstromeria ‘Inca Gold’ that echoes the soft gold in ‘Frederica’ and some red Daylilies that echoes the reddish colors.

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 1

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 2

In summer this bed is full of Daylilies of many colors, and I’m thinking of adding more. The secondary colors in the flowers were my guide for the mix.

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 3

Here they are inside. The various shades of red in the eyes of the creamy and soft amber / buff blooms are easy to match to the red flowers. The solid yellow bloom is slightly to the amber end of yellow so it seems barely compatible to my eye.

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 4

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One hardscape design ‘trick’ is to echo some of the ornaments, as well as other hardscape. These containers (pots) have the same glaze but different shapes. I set them on the diagonal because I wanted to lead the eye up the stairs. If they were set symmetrically they’d probably look like one was trying to be the dominant one. If there were identical pots set on either side of the steps they’d seem like a barricade, stopping the eye, at least.

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 5

Another design ‘trick’ is to stick to simple forms for the garden layout, rectangles in this case although circles, parallelograms, and others will work as well. In this instance the stone steps and square pavers are set parallel to the house and deck. To my mind it’s calmer to have this relationship than to have the steps at an angle to the house and deck. Wobbles (R.I.P.) seems to agree. (The parallel steps didn’t do him in. He stopped eating six months after this picture.)

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 6

Top photo: The backyard layout is very rectilinear. It doesn’t seem rigid because the materials are heavily textural and the plantings are effusive. I find that effusive plantings with a huge variety of unusual plants – the typical plant collector’s garden – benefits from simple shapes.

The layout is very apparent in some winters. This picture is in sympathy with Jackals in the eastern US, and their loved ones, about to experience some weather.

Sunday Morning Garden Chat:  Garden Design Thoughts 8

Hang in there! Politics and the weather are going to be equally miserable but I believe Spring is on the way.

***********

Spring is on the way, but it’s not here yet. Send me your photos, jackals!

(I have made myself a small promise, reserving half a dozen tomato plants & a six-pack of ‘Blue Butterflies’ columbines for the new garden.)

What’s going on in your garden (planning / prep / memories), this week?

Sunday Morning Garden Chat: Garden Design ThoughtsPost + Comments (19)

War for Ukraine Day 1,458: Russian Strategic Aviation Is Up, Missiles Strikes Are Likely Imminent

by Adam L Silverman|  February 21, 202610:35 pm| 36 Comments

This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, United Kingdom, War, War in Ukraine

A painting by the Ukrainain artist NEIVANMADE. The upper 1/2 is grey and there are black Shahed drones on it aimed towards the bottom of the painting. The bottom half of the painting has a blood red background and in the center of the bottom is a house, to it's left is a swing set, and to its right is a car. They are charcoal grey on the blood red background background. The drones are targeting the house, swing set, and car. Above the house and below the drones are the words "Russia Kills To Erase Free People".

(Image by NEIVANMADE)

Just a quick Rosie update. She had her regular monthly post-chemo appointment with her regular vet today. Her regular vet is very pleased with how quickly she seems to be recovering from the stroke. While she’s still got a deficit on her left rear leg, she’s walking very well, she’s eating, she can hold her squats. Right now we’re just doing walks around the block a few times a day. Next week we’ll start going a bit longer. I’d say she’s about 70% of where she was before the stroke. Her vet says this is a very good sign. So that’s the good news. Thank you all for the good wishes, thoughts, and prayers.

Almost all of eastern and central Ukraine, about 2/3rds of the country, is under air raid alert as of 4:00 AM local time/9:oo PM EST. I expect the rest of Ukraine will be under air raid alert soon enough given that Russian Tu-95s are up over Russia and inbound towards the part of western Russia where they launch their missiles.

Russian Tu-95MS bombers takeoff reported by monitoring channels.

​missiles are expected to reach our airspace by morning.

Once again, we are in for a dreadful night of waiting for missiles while being haunted by drones. Once again, we play this deadly lottery. All of this could have been prevented

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:16 PM

❗️4 Tu-95MS from the Olenya airfield are currently in the air, flying towards the launch lines

We expect the planes to arrive in the launch zone approximately around 04:50-06:00.

— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:13 PM

It is now 5:00 AM local time in Ukraine/10:00 PM EST and all of Ukraine is now under air raid alert.

Air raid alert in entire Ukraine. Russia attacks with drones and different kinds of missiles.

4:50 AM

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:51 PM

Two ballistic missiles are being tracked on descent on targets in Kyiv as of 5:10 AM local time/10:10 PM EST.

Russian cruise missiles are reported as overflying Sumy Oblast from east to west, a cruise missile is reported over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, and a drone swarm over Kyiv at 5:30 AM local time in Ukraine/10:30 PM EST.

If the US, specifically the Biden administration, had both allowed the Ukrainian Air Force to begin training on F-16s earlier, as well as authorized the provision of more F-16s and not limited the Ukrainians to not using them outside of Ukraine, right now the Ukrainians would be sending a a squadron to intercept the Tu-95s before they could launch their missiles.

OTD in 2000 Ukraine sent its final strategic bomber to Russia.

Having given up strategic arms and so having no long-range ability to threaten Russia, Ukraine was subsequently rewarded with invasion and supplied with limitless grave concern.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:12 AM

The countries who gave their assurance that Russia would not invade Ukraine, are now on Russia’s side.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:12 AM

Here is President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.

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We Continue Working Every Day Specifically So That the Next Round of Negotiations Can Deliver Results for Ukraine, for Peace – Address by the President

21 February 2026 – 17:53

I wish you good health, fellow Ukrainians!

There are several important points worth mentioning today. First, we continue working every day specifically so that the next round of negotiations can deliver results for Ukraine, deliver results for peace. Ukraine will definitely do whatever is needed for this and will by no means stand in the way of peace.

Last time in Geneva, the American side clearly saw that it is precisely the Russians who are the reason no truly meaningful results had yet been achieved. And the next meeting must not be a wasted opportunity – it can be done.

We discussed today with Rustem Umerov some aspects of negotiation preparations. And I am grateful to everyone who is genuinely ready to help and who supports us – supports our state. My meetings with European partners are also already scheduled for next week. We will coordinate in detail so that Europe is involved in all processes and grows only stronger. I also instructed Rustem to work more closely with our friends in the Middle East and Türkiye, so that they also feel invested and can help more.

I also spoke today with Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO. In many respects, we share common views on the diplomatic process and on the situation in Europe. Thank you, Mark.

The second important point. I want to commend the efforts of the Security Service of Ukraine, the National Police, and the Office of the Prosecutor General – they neutralized Russian mercenaries preparing assassination attempts against our citizens. These were rather high-profile names, and preventing such crimes is a substantial result.

There were reports from Oleksandr Poklad. And this is yet another front in the ongoing protection of Ukraine’s security, the safety of Ukrainians, and the constant defense of the lives of our people – the way our Ukrainian special services, our law enforcement, and our intelligence neutralize Russian criminal activity against Ukrainians. They were preparing attacks against Ukrainian military personnel, Ukrainian intelligence officers, and Ukrainian media workers. It is important that all our Ukrainian special services and law enforcement continue to protect Ukrainian citizens in exactly this coordinated way.

And one more thing. Today, Ukraine has introduced new sanctions against the captains of vessels involved in transporting Russian oil – 225 captains. And we will continue to consistently impose sanctions and make them global against everyone who helps Russia earn money for war.

Many around the world support us, and often it is Ukrainian proposals that form the basis of partners’ sanctions. We very much count, in particular, that the next sanctions package of the European Union takes into account what is needed for real pressure on Russia over this war – for truly restricting Russia’s ability to wage it.

This includes, among other things, a ban on maritime services for vessels used by Russia. Europe should come to this. And this is something that could become a significant incentive from Europe for Russia to finally move from war to diplomacy – to real diplomacy. The war must be brought to an end.

I want to thank everyone who helps us! Thank you!

Glory to Ukraine!

First Lady Zelenska participated in an international forum on the recovery of Ukraine that was held in Vilnius today.

While Ukraine Is Moving Toward Membership in the European Union, It Is Already Part of the Free World in Values – as It Stands for Freedom and Dignity – Olena Zelenska

21 February 2026 – 17:22

First Lady of Ukraine Olena Zelenska took part online in the International Forum “Recovery of Ukraine: New Opportunities and Development Scenarios,” held in Vilnius.

The event focused on steps for Ukraine’s reconstruction, including the development of international cooperation tools, the restoration of critical infrastructure, and the energy sector. A dedicated panel addressed Ukraine’s path toward European Union membership.

“When the question is sometimes asked, ‘Why rebuild if a missile could strike again?’ – the answer is simple. If we postpone life for later, we accept the logic of destruction. But Ukraine does not live by an imposed scenario. In the very first days of the invasion, we – as a society and as a state – made a difficult and principled decision: while defending ourselves, not to stop development. That is why we are not only rebuilding housing, hospitals, schools, and universities, and restoring electricity supply – we are trying to make them better than they were before,” the First Lady emphasized.

The forum was traditionally held at the Ukrainian Center – a flagship cultural and educational space opened in Vilnius in 2022 under the patronage of the First Ladies of Ukraine and Lithuania. The Center serves as a venue for international events dedicated to Ukraine and its support.

“I am sincerely grateful to the First Lady of Lithuania, Diana Nausėdienė, Vytautas Magnus University, the team of the Ukrainian Center, volunteers, and all partners for developing this Center with such dedication. For me, this is the best illustration of European values in action. Values we fully share. Because while Ukraine is moving toward membership in the European Union, it is already part of the free world in values – as it stands for freedom and dignity. Therefore, the recovery of Ukraine is at the same time the recovery of a safe Europe,” Olena Zelenska noted.

During the forum, a Memorandum of Cooperation was also signed between the University of Silesia (Poland) and Vytautas Magnus University (Lithuania). The agreement aims to strengthen and provide long-term support for the activities of Ukrainian centers hosted at both universities.

Georgia:

A large crowd at the weekly march in Tbilisi.

Day 451 of daily, uninterrupted protests in Georgia. 🇬🇪

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:31 AM

#GeorgiaProtests
Day 451

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— Publika.ge (@publikage.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 2:29 PM

For 451 consecutive days, Georgians have taken to the streets in 8+ cities, resisting an illegitimate, pro-Russian regime. This is Tbilisi today.

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— Rusudan Djakeli (@rusudandjakeli.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:44 AM

Not too bad for Day 451 consecutive #GeorgiaProtests, is it?

1. Further regime isolation, a Russian proxy and sanctions evasion enabler, pro-Iran, pro-CCP;
2. Targeted sanctions;
3. Aid to CSOs & media;
4. Int’l investigation into chemicals use against protesters;

📷 @rusudandjakeli.bsky.social

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 12:24 PM

Apparently, food provided to the army and the police in Georgia was so toxic that toxicity expertise wasn’t conducted out of concerns that it could harm the expert…

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— Marika Mikiashvili 🇬🇪🇺🇦🇪🇺 (@marikamikiashvili.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:19 AM

The Czech Republic:

In Prague thousands of Czechs gathered in the city center for the “Together for Ukraine” rally to mark the fourth anniversary of russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 12:40 PM

From the stage, Czech President Petr Pavel addressed the crowd, stressing that despite political differences, the Czech Republic must help Ukraine.

Czechs 🇨🇿❤️🇺🇦

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 12:40 PM

Hungary and Slovakia:

Fico and Orbán are using the damaged Friendship pipeline to blackmail Ukraine, ignoring the obvious: the energy supply would be secure if russia hadn’t invaded. Buying russian oil now literally funds the murder of Ukrainians.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:28 AM

This reeks of the bothsidism, rhetoric the Trump administration loves, and the timing – just after Rubio’s visit – is telling.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:28 AM

“IF THE UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT DOES NOT RESUME OIL SUPPLIES TO SLOVAKIA ON MONDAY, ON THAT SAME DAY I WILL ASK THE RELEVANT SLOVAK COMPANIES TO STOP EMERGENCY ELECTRICITY SUPPLIES TO UKRAINE.”- Slovakia PM Fico

literally, go fuck yourself.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:22 AM

Orban likened EU attempts to defeat Russia and claim reparations to Napoleon and Hitler’s failures. Kallas will be next to try he suggested.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 1:06 PM

The US:

Let me get this straight:

🔹Trump tells the EU to build up its own defences
🔹Trump threatens the EU repeatedly and signals unreliability as a defence partner
🔹Now Trump is upset the EU wants a buy-EU defence policy to build local manufacturing?

What did you expect to happen??

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 2:09 AM

He didn’t expect anything to happen other than the EU and its member states agreeing to give him whatever he demanded. He has no idea how defense management works, how a defense industrial base is run, or even how an alliance works. All he cares about is trying to force the EU, its member states, and the other NATO members to capitulate to whatever bonkers demand he makes on any given day.

Considering everything the Trump administration is doing, this is not surprising. but still heartbreaking.

A slow return to business as usual with genocidal invaders, even as they continue murdering Ukrainians and destroying our country.

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:13 AM

From The New York Times:

Russia’s return to the global sporting stage after years of banishment because of cheating schemes and its invasion of Ukraine has found an influential source of support from the Trump administration.

The news that a Russian team will compete at next month’s Paralympics was greeted with dismay across Europe. But Paulo Zampolli, President Trump’s special representative for global partnerships, endorsed Russian participation, saying in a text message: “I think sport is for all.”

His comments were at odds with those of European leaders and those from Ukraine, which said its team would boycott the competition’s opening ceremony. The Paralympics’ host nation, Italy, expressed “its absolute opposition to the International Paralympic Committee’s decision.”

Even as Russia was barred from fielding a team at the Winter Games in Italy, which conclude on Sunday, momentum has been building for ending the country’s pariah status in global sports.

The president of FIFA, the governing body for world soccer, said this month that he would like to see Russia return to the sport’s international competitions. And the president of the International Olympic Committee, Kirsty Coventry, said that sports must be a “neutral ground” and a “place where every athlete can compete freely.”

Her words sounded much like those of Mr. Zampolli, who met with Russia’s sports minister in January at talks hosted by the Olympic Council of Asia, an umbrella body for the region. Mr. Zampolli also attended the opening ceremony of the Olympics with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

The U.S. government was not among the 35 signatories to a statement condemning the Paralympic governing body’s initial decision to lift its suspension of Russia in September.

The governing body, known as the I.P.C., said this week that six Russian athletes and four from Belarus — which was barred over its support for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine — had been awarded the equivalent of wild card entries for skiing and snowboarding events next month. It would be Russia’s first participation in the Paralympics since it hosted the event in Sochi in 2014.

The I.O.C. formally banned Russia over its move in 2023 to absorb the official sports institutions in several occupied regions of Ukraine. Russian officials have argued in recent months that they have instituted administrative changes that mean the ban should be lifted.

Russia’s sports minister, Mikhail V. Degtyarev, has said that he expects the I.O.C.’s executive board to decide by May whether to lift the ban. That leaves open the possibility that a Russian team could participate in the 2028 Summer Games in Los Angeles.

Even if the I.O.C. reinstates Russia, federations governing individual sports at the Games must agree to lift their own bans. A few have done so, including those for judo and taekwondo.

Some senior I.O.C. officials have backed Russian efforts at reinstatement.

More at the link,

Once again, the International Olympic Committee is a global criminal organization masquerading as an international non-governmental organization.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 A large-scale rally was held in Washington to mark the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine.

Hundreds of people gathered near the Russian embassy. The rally was part of solidarity events taking place in various countries around the world.

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— Savchenko Volodymyr (@savchenkoua.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:06 PM

Back to Ukraine.

OTD in 2014 we sent masked soldiers to occupy Crimea

2014 “they’re not Russian soldiers but local militias. Russia has nothing to do with them”
2015 “They were not Russian soldiers but we “stood behind them””
Later 2015 “They were Russian soldiers”

But we are not lying this time

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:38 AM

You were given the choice between war and dishonor. You chose dishonor. And you have war.

— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 11:38 AM

Soon enough you’ll be connecting all these dots to the forthcoming general mobilisation that you don’t think I’ll risk doing.

But losing this war is a far bigger risk.

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— Darth Putin (@darthputinkgb.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:41 AM

If you haven’t read this long-read yet, you absolutely should. It’s worth every minute.

www.theguardian.com/world/ng-int…

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— Maria Drutska (@mariadrutska.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:10 PM

From The Guardian: (emphasis mine)

William Burns had travelled halfway around the world to speak with Vladimir Putin, but in the end he had to make do with a phone call. It was November 2021, and US intelligence agencies had been picking up signals in the preceding weeks that Putin could be planning to invade Ukraine. President Joe Biden dispatched Burns, his CIA director, to warn Putin that the economic and political consequences if he did so would be disastrous.

Fifteen years earlier, when Burns was US ambassador in Moscow, Putin had been relatively accessible. The intervening years had concentrated the Russian leader’s power and deepened his paranoia. Since Covid had emerged, few had been granted face time. Putin was squirrelled away at his lavish residence on the Black Sea coast, Burns and his delegation learned, and only phone contact would be possible.

A secure line was ready in an office at the presidential administration building on Moscow’s Old Square, and Putin’s familiar voice came through the receiver. Burns laid out the US belief that Russia was readying an invasion of Ukraine, but Putin ignored him and ploughed on with his own talking points. His intelligence agencies had informed him, he said, that there was an American warship lurking over the Black Sea horizon, equipped with missiles that could reach his location in just a few minutes. It was evidence, he suggested, of Russia’s strategic vulnerability in a unipolar world dominated by the US.

The conversation, as well as three combative face-to-face discussions with Putin’s top security officials, seemed extremely ominous to Burns. He left Moscow far more concerned about the prospect of war than he had been before the trip, and he relayed his gut feeling to the president.

“Biden often asked yes/no questions, and when I got back, he asked if I thought Putin was going to do it,” Burns recalled. “I said: ‘Yes’.”

Three and a half months later, Putin ordered his army into Ukraine, in the most dramatic breach of the European security order since the second world war. The story of the intelligence backdrop to those months – how Washington and London garnered such detailed and accurate insight into the Kremlin’s war plans, and why the intelligence services of other countries did not believe them – has never before been told in full.

This account is based on interviews conducted over the past year with more than 100 intelligence, military, diplomatic and political insiders in Ukraine, Russia, the US and Europe. Many spoke without attribution to discuss events that are still sensitive or classified; those quoted by name are referred to by their job titles at that time.

It is the story of a spectacular intelligence success, but also one of several intelligence failures. First, for the CIA and MI6, who got the invasion scenario right but failed to accurately predict the outcome, assuming a swift Russian takeover was a foregone conclusion. More profoundly, for European services, who refused to believe a full-scale war in Europe was possible in the 21st century. They remembered the dubious intelligence case presented to justify the invasion of Iraq two decades previously, and were wary of trusting the Americans on what seemed like a fantastical prediction.

Most crucially, the Ukrainian government was thoroughly unprepared for the oncoming assault, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spending months dismissing increasingly urgent American warnings as scaremongering, and quashing last-minute concerns among his own military and intelligence elite, who eventually made limited attempts to prepare behind his back.

“In the final weeks, the intelligence leaders were starting to get it, the mood was different. But the political leadership just refused to accept it until right at the end,” said one US intelligence official.

Four years on, there are many lessons to be drawn from these events about how intelligence is collected and analysed. Perhaps the most pertinent, as the world appears more unpredictable than at any time in recent history, is that it is dangerous to dismiss a scenario because it seems to fit outside the realm of what is rational or possible.

“I felt the evidence we presented to them was overwhelming. It’s not like we held back something that, if only they had seen it, would have made all the difference,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, on why European allies did not believe the Americans. “They were just seized with the conviction that this simply made no sense.”

The CIA discovered an awful lot about Putin’s plans to invade Ukraine, but one thing they never worked out for sure is when he first made up his mind to go all-in. Sifting through the evidence later, like detectives at a crime scene, some of the agency’s analysts pinpointed the first half of 2020 as the most likely moment.

During those months, Putin passed constitutional amendments to ensure he could stay in power beyond 2024. Then, locked away in isolation for months during Covid, he devoured books on Russian history and pondered his own place in it. Over the summer, the violent crushing of a protest movement in neighbouring Belarus left President Alexander Lukashenko weaker and more reliant on the Kremlin than ever. It opened up the possibility of forcing Lukashenko to allow the use of Belarusian territory as an invasion launchpad.

Around the same time, a team of FSB poisoners slipped novichok nerve agent into the underpants of Alexei Navalny, the one opposition politician with the potential to command mass public support, sending him into a coma. Back then, these all seemed like discrete events. Later, they started to look like Putin getting his ducks in a row before implementing the big Ukraine gambit he felt would cement his role in history as a great Russian leader.

Hints of that plan first came into focus in the spring of 2021, when Russian troops began building up along Ukraine’s borders and in occupied Crimea, supposedly for training exercises. The US received intelligence suggesting Putin could use an annual set-piece speech, due on 21 April, to lay out the case for military action in Ukraine. When Biden was briefed on the intelligence, a week before the speech, he was so alarmed he called Putin directly. “He raised concerns about the buildup and called for a de-escalation, as well as proposing a summit in the coming months, which we knew would be of interest to Putin,” said Avril Haines, Biden’s director of national intelligence.

When Putin gave the speech, it was much less bellicose than expected, and a day later the Russian army announced its military exercises at the border were over. It seemed the summit offer had successfully defused the threat, and when the two leaders met in Geneva in June, Putin hardly mentioned Ukraine.

It was only in hindsight that it became clear why: he had already decided on a non-diplomatic solution.

Four weeks after the Geneva summit, Putin published a lengthy, rambling essay about the history of Ukraine, in which he went back as far as the ninth century to make the argument that “true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible only in partnership with Russia”.

The screed raised eyebrows, but attention in London and Washington was soon diverted by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. In September, Russian troops began another buildup along Ukraine’s borders; within a month it had reached a mass that was hard to ignore. Washington collected new intelligence about Russian plans, more detailed and much more shocking than in spring. Back then, the assumption had been that Russia could attempt a formal annexation of the Donbas region, or in a maximalist scenario, might try to hack a land corridor through southern Ukraine, linking Donbas to occupied Crimea. Now, it looked as if Putin could be planning something bigger. He wanted Kyiv.

Many in the US political elite were highly sceptical, but the intelligence analysts were worked up over what they were seeing. “There was enough information coming in that made it clear this was no longer a remote possibility,” said Haines. When Burns came back from Moscow, the alarm bells rang even louder. Whether or not the intelligence was right, Biden said, it was time to start planning.

In mid-November, he dispatched Haines to Brussels. There, at the annual meeting of Nato-member intelligence heads, she presented the US belief that there was now a real chance of a massive Russian invasion of Ukraine. Richard Moore, the head of Britain’s MI6, backed her up. As part of the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance, Britain had seen most of what the US had collected, and also had its own intelligence channels that pointed towards the possibility of an invasion. The primary response in the room, however, was scepticism. Some dismissed the idea of an invasion out of hand. Others expressed a fear that if Nato adopted a strong posture in response, it could prove counterproductive, provoking exactly the scenario the US claimed to be concerned about.

Managing that perception would be in the back of US and British minds over the next months. “We had to make sure we weren’t going to do anything that gave them an excuse to invade,” said Chris Ordway, a senior official working on the region at Britain’s Ministry of Defence. At the same time, London and Washington believed Russia needed only two more months to be ready for an invasion, and they wanted to raise the alarm.

Biden ordered his team to share as much intelligence with allies as possible, to help them understand why Washington was so worried. He also suggested a declassification push to get some of the information into the public domain. This had to be done carefully, to avoid exposing how Washington had obtained the evidence. “These are sources and methods that we put our blood and sweat and tears into obtaining, and they can put people’s lives at risk if lost,” said Haines.

A system was implemented whereby officials from different intelligence agencies would have “an opportunity to weigh in on anything before it went out the door”, she said, to make sure nothing slipped through that could give away a source. Over the next weeks, the US downgraded more sensitive intelligence than at any time in recent memory for allies and often for the general public, too. “We were getting classified briefings from the Americans, and then a few hours later you’d read the exact same information in the New York Times,” said one European official.

At the end of October, the CIA and MI6 sent memos to Kyiv outlining their alarming new intelligence assessments. The next week, after Burns visited Moscow, two US officials on the trip peeled away from the delegation and flew to Kyiv where they briefed two senior Ukrainian officials on the US fears and the CIA director’s conversations in Moscow. “We basically said: ‘We will follow up. You’ll see the intel. This is not a normal warning, this is really serious. Trust us,’” said Eric Green, one of the US officials. The Ukrainians looked sceptical.

In mid-November, the British defence secretary, Ben Wallace, visited Kyiv and told Zelenskyy London believed a Russian invasion was now a matter of “when”, not “if”. He urged Zelenskyy to start preparing the country for war. “You can’t fatten up a pig on market day,” Wallace told the Ukrainian president, according to a source briefed on the meeting. Zelenskyy appeared to be in passive listening mode.

Zelenskyy had been elected in 2019 on a platform of pursuing peace negotiations to end the conflict Russia had launched in eastern Ukraine in 2014. He no longer believed he could do a deal with Putin, but he feared that public talk of an even bigger war would prompt panic in Ukraine. This could lead to an economic and political crisis, collapsing the country without Russia needing to send a single soldier across the border. This, he suspected, was Putin’s plan all along. He grew increasingly irritated at the Americans and British, who alongside the private warnings were starting to talk about the invasion threat in public. In November, he dispatched one of his most senior security officials on a top-secret mission to a European capital to deliver a message to political leaders via intelligence channels: the war scare is fake, and is all about the US trying to leverage pressure on Russia.

Few in Ukraine believed a full-scale invasion was likely, but the country’s intelligence agencies had been picking up worrying signs of increasing Russian activity. Ivan Bakanov, the head of the SBU domestic agency, recalled that while Russian spy services had traditionally focused on trying to recruit high-level Ukrainian sources, in the year prior to the invasion “they were going after everyone”, including chauffeurs and low-level functionaries. Often, these pitches were “false flag”: the Russian recruiters would pretend to be from one of Ukraine’s own intelligence agencies.

The SBU also tracked clandestine meetings between officers from Russia’s FSB and Ukrainian civil servants or politicians. These meetings often took place in luxury hotels in Turkey or Egypt, where the Ukrainians travelled under the guise of tourism. Russia hoped these people, motivated variously by ideology, ego or money, would act as a fifth column inside Ukraine when the time came.

“Before I came to the SBU, I also thought we could do a deal with the Russians,” said Bakanov, who was an old business partner of Zelenskyy’s and had no intelligence background when appointed in 2019. “But when you see every day how they are trying to kill and recruit people, you understand that they have a different plan, that they are saying one thing and doing another.”

Still, the prevailing mood in Kyiv was that the US warnings were overegged. Ukraine had been fighting Russian proxy forces in the Donbas for eight years, but the idea of a full-fledged war – with missile attacks, tank columns and a march on Kyiv – seemed unimaginable.

A European intelligence official said this line of thought remained fairly constant in briefings from Ukrainian counterparts in the months leading up to the invasion. “The message was: ‘Nothing is going to happen, it’s all sabre-rattling,’” said the official. “They thought the absolute maximum possible was a skirmish in the Donbas.”

Later, when it turned out that the US and Britain had it right all along, many wondered what it was that had allowed them to be so sure. Was there a mole in Putin’s inner circle, passing on the war plans to their CIA or MI6 handlers?

“Often, it’s presented as ‘we found the plans’ but it definitely was not that simple,” said Haines. The most obvious indicator was partly visible on commercial satellite imagery: tens of thousands of Russian troops moving into positions close to the border with Ukraine.<

“These troop movements were unexpected and you had to work really quite hard to come up with explanations for why you’d do this, other than that you want to use them,” said a senior official at DI, the British military intelligence service.

Much more at the link.

I want to highlight this part:

“I felt the evidence we presented to them was overwhelming. It’s not like we held back something that, if only they had seen it, would have made all the difference,” said Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser, on why European allies did not believe the Americans. “They were just seized with the conviction that this simply made no sense.”

Part of the job of being a senior advisor is to make sure the senior official that one is advising have the context necessary to understand why things do make sense even if they seem to make no sense. As I’ve written here before, what Putin did, has been, and is continuing to do makes no sense except within his own context. A context that is an ahistorical heavily mythologized understanding of Russia and its history. A heavily mythologized ahistorical history that he has helped to contribute to. Within this context, what Weber called bounded rationality, what Putin is doing makes sense. The key is to ensure that the senior leaders and decision makers understand this context.

Video of the launch of FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles at the Votkinsk plant last night

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 4:15 PM

Mi-8 helicopter crew intercepts Russian Shahed kamikaze drones during a combat mission.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:32 AM

Sumy Oblast:

Russia struck a car in Sumy Oblast, killing four civilians — two brothers, one of them 17, and a married couple.

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— Iryna Voichuk (@irynavoichuk.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:50 PM

Tragedy in Sumy region: A Russian drone struck an ambulance, killing four people‼️

Among the victims were two brothers—one just 17 years old—and a married couple. The woman was a medic.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:53 PM

The brothers were being taken to the hospital after being injured by an explosive device. On the way, Russian forces deliberately targeted the emergency vehicle with a strike drone.

Only the driver survived; he is now in the hospital.

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:53 PM

Kharkiv:

Russian drones over Kharkiv right now ‼️ air defense is active ‼️

— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:46 PM

Odesa:

Russia is terrorizing Odesa, striking it almost daily. Historical buildings, cafés, homes, schools, and more are being destroyed.

This is one of the city’s schools after last night’s russian attack:

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 1:27 PM

Lviv:

🇺🇦🙏 Today at 00:30, a report of a break-in at a store on Danylyshyna Street, 20 in Lviv, was received by the number “102”.

After arrival of patrol police crew at the scene, an explosion was heard. Upon the arrival of the second crew, another explosion occurred.

23-year-old policewoman was killed.

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— The Ukrainian Review (@theukrainianreview.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:47 PM

❗️Screams of people and a large number of special services at the scene of the explosion in Lviv

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM

🙏🙏🙏

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:11 PM

🙏🇺🇦Video of second explosion in Lviv shows injured police officers

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:39 PM

Russian occupied Luhansk Oblast:

💥 An oil depot in Luhansk has been hit once again. Locals report a major fire.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:49 PM

Russian occupied Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

💡❌ The power went out in the temporarily occupied territories in Zaporizhia region, something is burning also!

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:11 PM

Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

🇺🇦 Defense Forces have restored control over more than 300 sq. km in the South, – Voloshyn

A Defense Forces of Ukraine operation is underway in Hulyaipole and neighboring areas, during which Ukrainian units are conducting counterattacks and assault operations.

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 8:29 AM

Zaporizhzhia Oblast:

During a flight over the Zaporizhzhia region, a pair of FP-2 guided strike drones detected the launch site of Russian missiles. Maintaining visual contact, the drone team executed a precision strike, successfully destroying the Tornado-S (BM-30 Smerch) launcher while it was still at the launch site.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 3:24 AM

Russian occupied Mariupol:

Mariupol, explosions in the port 👀💥

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— MAKS 25 👀🇺🇦 (@maks23.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 5:37 PM

Russian occupied Crimea:

Photos of the Russian Be-12 amphibious aircraft as well as two Project 22460 Okhotnik border patrol vessels in the cameras of Ukrainian guided strike drones published by the Ukrainian General Staff.

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— 🦋Special Kherson Cat🐈🇺🇦 (@specialkhersoncat.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM

Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces destroyed a Tornado-S MLRS and struck an oil depot in Hvardiyske near Simferopol in occupied Crimea.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:37 AM

The Kharkiv-Russian border:

Hart brigade drone operators found a hangar full of Russian equipment and ammo on the Kharkiv border. They punched a hole through a window with one drone then sent another inside to detonate it.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 6:03 AM

The Autonomous Republic of Mordvinia, Russia:

In Russia’s Saransk, after a UAV strike, the ‘Electrorectifier’ plant, part of the military-industrial complex, is ablaze. 👀

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— Kate from Kharkiv (@kateinkharkiv.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 8:10 AM

Volgograd Oblast, Russia:

The February 12 overnight Flamingo missile strike on the GRAU arsenal in Kotluban destroyed a 3,600 sq m bunker CyberBoroshno analysts report.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 9:01 AM

Tver Oblast, Russia:

Satellite imagery reveals damage from the February 7 strike on the Redkino chemical plant in Tver region. The hit landed near a facility making lubricants for Russia’s Defense Ministry Radio Svoboda reports.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 7:30 AM

Samara Oblast, Russia:

NASA satellite signatures confirm a massive fire at the Neftegorsk gas processing plant in Russia’s Samara region.

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— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 4:27 AM

That’s enough for tonight.

Your daily Patron!

There are no new Patron skeets or videos today.

Here is some adjacent material.

Update on “Ash” the cat rescued in freezing Kupiansk, eastern Ukraine: she was in bad shape, but after a blood transfusion & antibiotics, her fever is down and she’s doing much better. 🙏 Look at how sweet she is to the doctor!

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— Nate Mook (@natemook.bsky.social) February 21, 2026 at 10:44 AM

Open thread!

War for Ukraine Day 1,458: Russian Strategic Aviation Is Up, Missiles Strikes Are Likely ImminentPost + Comments (36)

Saturday Night Open Thread

by John Cole|  February 21, 20267:09 pm| 98 Comments

This post is in: John Cole Presents "This Fucking Old House"

We got Bolo. He is doing fine around all the animals, even Maxwell, who can tell the Shiba Inu is completely uninterested in him, and really loves the back yard (he has not had one). The only thing he appears to hate is me, and I have not even touched him. When I come into the room he barks at me. That’s ok, I’ve played the long game before and have dated women way TF out of my league, so I can wait him out. And if nothing else, I did live with Rosie for ten years and she hated every fiber of my being and bit me once a week and snapped at me 3-5 times every day, and it worked out.

He’ll work it out, or he won’t. Loves Joelle though.

I will post some pictures when Joelle gets some good ones.

*** Update ***

Here is his baby picture:

Saturday Night Open Thread 50

And here is a picture from a couple minutes ago:

Saturday Night Open Thread 51

We also learned today (via the bag of stuff dropped off with him) that he is chipped and also a VERY fancy boy- fully pedigreed from an upscale and reputable breeder in California and his entire lineage and all those in his line before him. And omg the absolutely ridiculous names like Wanda’s Cream Bear Hatchie- honestly I feel stupid and slightly French just writing that out. At any rate, ole Richie Rich here is now slumming it with the Clampett’s.

He has come up and sniffed my fingers, so that is progress.

Saturday Night Open ThreadPost + Comments (98)

Amazing Read: “He made a fake ICE deportation tip line. Then a kindergarten teacher called”

by Anne Laurie|  February 21, 20263:16 pm| 103 Comments

This post is in: Excellent Links, Immigration

New: A comedian set up a fake ICE tip line as a joke. Then 100 calls flooded in: neighbors ratting on neighbors, a teacher reporting a kindergartener. Fans say the viral TikToks revealed deportation's "banality of evil." Conservatives say he should be in prison wapo.st/4kM4qbF

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— Drew Harwell (@drewharwell.com) February 20, 2026 at 7:02 AM

Some of our fellow citizens may just be… irredeemable. Gift link:

Ben Palmer, a stand-up comic in Nashville, has built a following online with his signature style of elaborate deadpan pranks, stumbling his way onto court TV shows and pyramid-scheme calls to poke fun at the latent absurdities of American life.

Then in January of last year, he had an idea for a new bit: He’d set up a fake tip line that people could use to report anyone they thought was an undocumented immigrant. It was darker than his other stunts, but it felt topical, the kind of challenge he wanted to try. At the very least, he thought, he might get a few calls he could talk about at his next show.

Instead, his tip line has received nearly 100 submissions from across the country: people reporting their neighbors, ex-lovers, Uber drivers, strangers they saw at the grocery store. One tip came from a teacher reporting the parents of a kindergarten student at her school.

“I mean, they seem like nice people or whatever,” the woman told Palmer on the call. “But if they’re taking up resources from our county, I’m not into illegal people being here.”

What began as a comedy routine has become one of the most viral pieces of social satire during President Donald Trump’s mass-deportation campaign. The kindergarten video has been watched more than 20 million times on TikTok and exploded across Facebook, Reddit and YouTube, where one commenter called it “one of the most creative, nonviolent and effective acts of resistance” they’d ever seen…

A Department of Homeland Security spokesperson said it was “aware of a fraudulent YouTube page falsely representing ICE” and that the agency “strongly [condemns] any actions intended to mislead the public or impersonate official government entities.”

But neither Palmer nor the websites claim to represent a government agency, and the sites’ privacy policies include disclaimers at the bottom saying they’re intended only for “parody, joke purposes and sociological research.” (Palmer spoke on the condition that The Washington Post not name the websites, so as not to ruin the bit.)…

Amazing Read: <em>“He made a fake ICE deportation tip line. Then a kindergarten teacher called”</em>Post + Comments (103)

How About a New Orleans Story for a Saturday Afternoon?

by WaterGirl|  February 21, 20262:28 pm| 39 Comments

This post is in: Open Threads

We’ve been talking about New Orleans recently – I wonder why! – and BretH found himself writing this story from when he lived in New Orleans for a time.

Thanks for sharing, BretH!

Recently in BJ there was an On The Road by frosty about New Orleans. Having lived there for a time after quitting college (for the first time) I started a comment but had to stop because I realized it’s really worth a story of it’s own…

How About a New Orleans Story for a Saturday Afternoon? 2

After I graduated high school in 1977 I still had no idea what I wanted to do with my life or what to continue studying outside of a vague idea I might be an English major since I was pretty good at writing. I know I would not be happy at a large state university (University of Maryland, I’m looking at you) so I sought out smaller schools like Bard College and Reed College before settling on Antioch University in Yellow Springs, Ohio. I guess of all the mistakes I could have made this one was the “best” but it was still a mistake.

My parents had promised to pay for a state school or the equivalent, and I had some scholarship money and Antioch offered a work-study program so it was affordable even for our barely middle-class family. However, the glory days of Antioch were well behind it, and expansion all across the country had left the main campus in Ohio severely neglected and with a declining student body. I joked about playing tennis on grass courts because the asphalt ones were in such bad shape. I also had not realized that someone like me would not do well in a school where you basically made your own curriculum. So I drifted from class-to-class without much focus, although to my credit, how much focus could I be expected to have in a class of “The Teachings of Don Juan in the Works of Carlos Castaneda”, where the professor said it was OK to fall asleep in class since he knew we would be absorbing information even in that state?

But outside of studies I had a great time.  I learned killer Ultimate Frisbee, had a wonderful Spring semester teaching at an outdoor education center in New Hampshire and had work study jobs that consisted of wandering the nature preserve in a gorge next to campus telling people to put their dogs on a leash and managing the college darkroom which meant I had 24/7 access to it and spent some wonderful nights there, alone with my negatives and prints.

Still, two years in I made the decision that I should leave school for a while until I had a better sense of what I wanted to do and could use my education money more effectively. But the idea of returning home to Maryland depressed me no end so when a friend down the hall asked if anyone was interested in going with him to New Orleans (where he intended to work in a stereo store), I jumped at the chance. My best buddy in college was also ready to leave and things fell into place amazingly well. The first friend had already hooked up with a graduate who rented a two-bedroom shotgun house near City Park and needed roommates while he worked offshore on oil rigs. So with a guaranteed place to stay my buddy and I headed South with the goal of working in a bicycle shop as we were both mechanics.

How About a New Orleans Story for a Saturday Afternoon? 1

My first night in New Orleans was epic in ways I did not fully appreciate at the time. We arrived late in the day but the roommate who lived there insisted we all go out to a small club to hear this local band The Neville Brothers. Tired and wired we agreed only to be so seduced by the music and atmosphere and beer that when the first two guys left around midnight my buddy and I stayed to the end. At two-thirty or so we stumbled out to the street and stuck out our thumbs and within minutes were picked up by someone who not only drove us to our place but had us roll a huge joint from a bag of pot he had in the glove box.

We settled in reasonably well in the row house which was cramped but was cheap and we were in our early 20’s so it didn’t matter to us. I do recall one time my buddy said he witnessed me spontaneously levitate when a huge palmetto bug (American cockroach) dropped from the ceiling onto my bare chest while I was napping on the couch. And our friend did end up working in a stereo store, and the first guy had tons of money from working the oil rigs and wanted the best stereo money he could afford (even though he was home only a few days a month) so our living room ended up with the most amazing hi-fi equipment that a kid like me could have only dreamed of owning. To this day I feel sorry for the neighbors – we strictly respected a 10pm curfew on volume but up till then we put the stereo to hard use.

Our good luck continued as my buddy and I both found work at The Bikesmith, a little bike shop in a dicey neighborhood on Freret Street. The owner was a refugee from New York City who found the loose structure of life in New Orleans more to his liking. We had a good relationship with the locals too, as we were known to never turn away a kid who just needed something tightened on his bike and would price other repairs on somewhat of a sliding scale. The shop itself was a rabbit warren powered in part by a cord the owner had hacked into a city outlet, with a back room where the weed was plentiful. But the best part for me was the mobile bicycle repair van.

The Bikesmith van was a decrepit panel van painted yellow and stuffed with parts and tools to handle most repairs. In the morning I worked in the shop but we took appointments for repairs on location in the afternoons. So after lunch we would head out, me and a local mechanic who went by the nickname Bic (“like the pen”). Bic was a character himself, having worked at many other bike shops around the city but ending at the Bikemith due to incidents that were probably at least somewhat his fault. Bic loved Italian bicycles and his pride and joy was a Colnago frame fitted with all top-of-the-line Campagnolo parts.

I spent many memorable afternoons in that van with Bic. Some days when we had no appointments we would head over to the Tulane campus where Bic tried his best to pick up the ladies in between doing the odd repair job. On any given day we might be flagged down by someone with a flat tire or something small and Bic might not report that repair but we’d end up with a six-pack of Becks which we would finish by the end of the day. I remember one appointment in the French Quarter where we pulled up to a nondescript gate fronting a run-down building – and went inside to a Shangri-La of a fountained courtyard with a garden and balconies overlooking it on both sides.

The van itself was held together with baling wire and duct tape and just driving it was an adventure. One day we felt the van give a lurch and we watched our rear wheel pass us then hit a curb and get launched into the air over the sidewalk where thankfully no-one was walking. Another time I was driving when there was a huge BANG from below between the seats where the clutch assembly basically exploded in a spray of springs and other metal bits. As luck would have it we were actually descending from one of the few high points in the city – an overpass – and were able to coast into a gas station at the bottom.

I was in New Orleans for exactly one Mardi Gras – a historic one as it turned out as the police were on strike (https://www.wwltv.com/article/entertainment/events/mardi-gras/40-years-ago-the-police-strike-that-canceled-carnival-parades/289-f96f97c4-6459-41b3-87cc-66cea2987001). Thinking to hold the city hostage to their demands they even put up posters at the airport claiming that the prior month there were 31 murders in the city and did tourists really want to come there without the police on the job? Of course Mardi Gras happened anyway, without the big parades, because the residents simply came out in costume with the necklaces and beads and partied in the streets. My memories are not as clear as they might have been because, conscious of the ban on glass containers, we had filled gallon milk containers with a mix of Guinness and Heineken which we carried around with us throughout the afternoon.

Surprisingly we found ourselves mostly avoiding the French Quarter once we had visited a few times. We didn’t have enough money to hang out in the bars to hear the music (especially when you could hear it on the street). And under the façade of fun the Quarter was really a cramped, dirty and smelly place (especially early Sunday mornings). Our style would be to have beer at home then hit the Quarter very late and end the evening at the Cafe du Monde for coffee and beignets. But there was so much to do and see elsewhere in NOLA that we never missed it. Just walking or bicycling through the city was a sensory experience. My recollection is that it was a patchwork of blocks without much zoning so there would be a street with resplendent mansions like gilded Savannah, then a block or two of very modest shotgun houses. And little businesses everywhere – tailors, bars, salons and what have you.

One final memory was the night we decided to try and see the David Bromberg band (in it’s “How Late’ll ya Play ’Til” phase) in a club across the Mississippi River from the city proper. Arriving late there were no seats available and we were despairing and about to leave when an older guy right up front saw us and waved us to his table. He explained he was a record exec and preferred sharing his table to being alone and by the way, “anything you want to drink boys, it’s on me”. Dangerous words for two 20-somethings. Memorable night.

After a year and a half I was burnt out on New Orleans so the thought of living a while at home and even going to University of Maryland seemed less awful than before. I moved into the basement of my old house (my parents had split by then) and did attend a couple more semesters which proved equally fruitless as the first stint in Ohio. So I decided I wanted to become a motorcycle messenger – only I had never ridden a motorcycle and know next to nothing about downtown DC.

Full of confidence after making my way in New Orleans for a time that’s exactly what I did, becoming a motorcycle and bicycle messenger in DC before the fax machine, before personal computers and email when the absolute fastest way to get anything across town was by messenger…

…but that is a story for another time.

How About a New Orleans Story for a Saturday Afternoon?Post + Comments (39)

An Optimistic View of the Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs

by WaterGirl|  February 21, 20262:05 pm| 35 Comments

This post is in: Breathtaking Corruption, Breathtaking Criminality and Lawlessness, Justice, Open Threads

Robert Reich says the Supreme Court tariff decision extends far beyond tariffs.  I sure hope he’s right!

A 6-3 majority of the Supreme Court decided yesterday that Trump cannot take core powers that the Constitution gives Congress. Instead, Congress must delegate that power clearly and unambiguously.

This is a big decision. It goes far beyond merely interpreting the 1997 International Emergency Economic Powers Act not to give Trump the power over tariffs that he claims to have. It reaffirms a basic constitutional principle about the division and separation of powers between Congress and the president.

On its face, this decision clarifies that Trump cannot decide on his own not to spend money Congress has authorized and appropriated — such as the funds for U.S.A.I.D. he refused to spend. And he cannot on his own decide to go to war.

“The Court has long expressed ‘reluctan[ce] to read into ambiguous statutory test’ extraordinary delegations of Congress’s powers,” Chief Justice John Roberts wrote for himself and five other justices in the opinion released yesterday in Learning Resources vs. Trump.

He continued: “In several cases involving ‘major questions,’ the Court has reasoned that ‘both separation of powers principles and a practical understanding of legislative intent’ suggest Congress would not have delegated ‘highly consequential power’ through ambiguous language.”

Exactly. Trump has no authority on his own to impose tariffs because the Constitution gives that authority to Congress.

But by the same Supreme Court logic, Trump has no authority to impound money Congress has appropriated because the Constitution has given Congress the “core congressional power of the purse,” as the Court stated yesterday.

Hence, the $410 to $425 billion billion in funding that Trump has blocked or delayed violates the Impoundment Control Act, which requires Congressional approval for spending pauses. This includes funding withheld for foreign aid, FEMA, Head Start, Harvard and Columbia universities, and public health.

Nor, by this same Supreme Court logic, does Trump have authority to go to war because Article I, Section 8, Clause 11 of the Constitution grants Congress the power to “declare War … and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water” — and Congress would not have delegated this highly consequential power to a president through ambiguous language.

Presumably this is why Congress enacted the War Powers Act of 1973, which requires a president to notify Congress within 48 hours of deploying troops and requires their withdrawal within 60 to 90 days unless Congress declares war or authorizes an extension. Iran, anyone?

The press has reported on yesterday’s Supreme Court decision as if it were only about tariffs. Wrong. It’s far bigger and even more important.

Note that the decision was written by Chief Justice John Roberts — the same justice who wrote the Court’s 2024 decision in Trump v. United States, another 6 to 3 decision in which the Court ruled that former presidents have absolute immunity for actions taken within their core constitutional powers and at least presumptive immunity for all other official acts.

I have held a much more pessimistic view than this, and I surely hope Reich is correct on this.

I think Roberts intentionally wrote yesterday’s decision in Learning Resources v. Trump as a bookend to Trump v. United States.

Both are intended to clarify the powers of the president and of Congress. A president has immunity for actions taken within his core constitutional powers. But a president has no authority to take core powers that the Constitution gives to Congress.

In these two decisions, the Chief Justice and five of his colleagues on the Court have laid out a roadmap for what they see as the boundary separating the power of the president from the powers of Congress, and what they will decide about future cases along that boundary.

Trump will pay no heed, of course. He accepts no limits to his power and has shown no respect for the Constitution, Congress, the Supreme Court, or the rule of law.

But the rest of us should now have a fairly good idea about what to expect from the Supreme Court in the months ahead.

 

An Optimistic View of the Supreme Court Ruling on TariffsPost + Comments (35)

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