JAFD
More of the cherry blossoms of Branch Brook Park!
On The Road – JAFD – Cherry Blossoms of Newark, part 2Post + Comments (5)
by WaterGirl| 5 Comments
This post is in: On The Road, Photo Blogging
More of the cherry blossoms of Branch Brook Park!
On The Road – JAFD – Cherry Blossoms of Newark, part 2Post + Comments (5)
This post is in: Proud to Be A Democrat, Republican Stupidity, Republicans in Disarray!, Trump Crime Cartel
New developments in Repubs in Disarray!, courtroom edition:
AJ Delgado is kinda crazy but I suspect she’s one of the last people in politics you’d want to treat wrongly. She’s probably trying to blow up Trump’s campaign, probably has a good plan for how to do it, & appears to be relentless. https://t.co/z13xAoBJQt
— Dana Houle (@DanaHoule) May 1, 2024
Via TPM, per the NYTimes — “Law Firm Defending Trump Seeks to Withdraw From a Long-Running Case” [gift link]:
A law firm that has long defended Donald J. Trump’s campaign and businesses from employment lawsuits has abruptly asked to withdraw from a yearslong case over what it calls an “irreparable breakdown in the attorney-client relationship.”
The firm — LaRocca, Hornik, Greenberg, Rosen, Kittridge, Carlin and McPartland — has represented Mr. Trump’s political operation in numerous suits dating to his first presidential run, helping secure several settlements and dismissals and billing nearly $3 million in the process.
But late on Friday, it asked a federal magistrate judge to allow it to withdraw from a suit filed by a former campaign communications adviser, A.J. Delgado, who says she was sidelined by the campaign in 2016 after revealing she was pregnant. The timing of the motion was notable, just two days after the same federal court had ordered the campaign to turn over in discovery all complaints of sexual harassment and gender or pregnancy discrimination from the 2016 and 2020 campaigns — materials that the defendants have long resisted handing over.
In the request, filed in federal court in Manhattan, the lead lawyer, Jared Blumetti, did not provide any details about the dispute, asking permission to “explain” the matter privately with the judge. Mr. Blumetti did not respond to a request for comment.
The apparent rupture with a long-trusted firm comes at a busy time, legally speaking, for the former president…
[*chef’s kiss*]
It was not immediately clear whether LaRocca Hornik, which has its offices inside 40 Wall Street, a building in downtown Manhattan that is owned by Mr. Trump, intends to cut all ties with him. But such a break would hardly be new. In January, one of Mr. Trump’s defense lawyers, Joe Tacopina, said he would no longer represent him. Last year, at least four of his other lawyers, representing him in a variety of civil and criminal cases, stepped aside.
Ms. Delgado, who is representing herself in the matter, objected to the withdrawal in a filing Monday, arguing it should not be allowed until the discovery process has been completed and calling the request a “scheme to avoid compliance.” …
man when you're too toxic for lawers
— Snarky Panda (@TrashPandaFTW) May 1, 2024
When you withdraw, this is how you’re usually supposed to try & do it, without public explanations which harm your client. My assumption is it’s concerning payment & the firm has just had enough but can’t take further action while still representing him in an ongoing case
— John (@jcsnotes) May 1, 2024
======
You mess with the bull…
Hunter Biden vs. Fox News
Why you won’t read his actual letter on mainstream news sites.
And how there’s something in the letter that points to the future of the news business and a HUGE issue on the public policy front…https://t.co/foZDDCNNlW— Eriq Gardner ?? (@eriqgardner) April 30, 2024
Eriq Gardner, at Puck:
Of course Hunter Biden has hired ubiquitous entertainment industry litigator Bryan Freedman—yes, the same attorney who has advised Chris Cuomo and Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson—to threaten Fox News with legal action over its unhealthy obsession with him. Having marshaled a legal team that also includes fellow heavy hitters Mark Geragos and Tina Glandian, Hunter is making it abundantly clear that he won’t tolerate being continually smeared with what he describes as baseless allegations linking him and his dad to a bribery scheme. His message to Fox News? Clean up your act, set the record straight, and ax The Trial of Hunter Biden from the Fox Nation streaming service.
While word of these demands is spreading like wildfire in the media, don’t hold your breath waiting for the letter itself to appear on mainstream news sites. That’s likely because the demand letter is NSFW. Yes, the notorious intimate snapshots from Hunter’s stolen laptop have found their way into The Trial of Hunter Biden, which his legal team argues is a breach of “revenge porn” statutes and constitutes a copyright infringement. But rather than simply, and chastely, asserting the illegality of publishing someone’s selfies sans consent (the Freedman letter nods to Ellen DeGeneres’ iconic Oscar photo a decade ago, where Bradley Cooper inadvertently became the “author” simply by holding the camera), Hunter’s legal squad has gone one step further by including the risqué images themselves. That’s highly unusual, in my experience, and likely a tactic to limit circulation of the letter. (I’ve gotten my hands on it, but I’ll spare you.)
As for the bribery allegations, Team Hunter points to the recent indictment of former F.B.I. informant Alexander Smirnov, who was charged with fabricating a story about Joe and Hunter Biden accepting $5 million each from Ukrainian energy company Burisma. They cite Fox’s “brazen” and “no remorse” coverage of Smirnov’s arrest, and demand that Sean Hannity, Jesse Watters, and Maria Bartiromo inform their viewers that they’ve been sharing a debunked allegation from an indicted source. (There’s no obligation under libel law for follow-up coverage of new facts, although Fox could mitigate damages for past defamatory statements.)…
… Fox News spokesperson tells me that out of an abundance of caution, it has removed the series from its streamer while they evaluate the concerns raised…
Late Night NSFW Open Thread: The GOP After DarkPost + Comments (104)
by WaterGirl| 20 Comments
This post is in: Open Threads
Looks like we can use an open thread!
Yes, Henry is lying on 4 beds piled high, and snuggling with his favorite stuffed baby.
Nice work if you can get it!
One more week and it’s haircut time.
Sure, Biden doesn’t do everything I wish he would do, but no one ever will.
Biden can do great things or fuck up royally in the next 4 years but one thing I know for sure after those 4 years he won’t try to steal power and become a dictator
Trump on the other hand already tried
— Eric Garcia (@EricG1247) May 1, 2024
Open thread.
Perspective on a Wednesday Night! (Open Thread)Post + Comments (20)
by Adam L Silverman| 28 Comments
This post is in: Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, Military, Open Threads, Russia, Silverman on Security, War, War in Ukraine
(Image by NEIVANMADE)
Just a quick Rosie update: She’s eating more, starting to put weight back on, and is significantly improved from the weekend and Monday. I, however, am still sleep deprived and exhausted. The other good news is that the oncology vet is excellent and has made it clear that despite the protocols, she’s treating the dog. So if we have to push a treatment back a week or two, then that’s what we’ll do.
The Russians bombarded Odesa today.
Odesa these minutes. Russian forces attacked the city with ballistic missiles, injuring at least 13 civilians. https://t.co/2rSsiqV1dR pic.twitter.com/B1L0azVNki
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 1, 2024
Yet another horrific Russian missile strike on Odesa.
A large depo used by Nova Poshta, Ukraine's civilian shipment service, is reported to have been targeted.
At least 13 were injured as of now. pic.twitter.com/te4j6LIM6A
— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 1, 2024
Russian terrorists seem to have a special plan for Odesa and Kharkiv, calling it the "Russian world." If they can't get it, they target all they can reach. pic.twitter.com/5cpv2c3Dpx
— Maria Avdeeva (@maria_avdv) May 1, 2024
They also hit Kharkiv itself and Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast again too:
This morning, russian troops killed two civilians and wounded six others, including an 11-year-old boy, by attacking the small town of Zolochiv in Kharkiv Oblast with a guided aerial bomb. Another bomb struck Kharkiv, damaging civilian infrastructure and houses. pic.twitter.com/uJusPKwlBl
— Iryna Voichuk (@IrynaVoichuk) May 1, 2024
Here’s President Zelenskyy’s address from earlier today. Video below, English transcript after the jump.
We are Preparing Seven New Security Documents for Ukraine: Weapons, Finance, Political Cooperation – Address by the President
1 May 2024 – 20:02
I wish you health, fellow Ukrainians!
Today is a day dedicated to our international work – to the results that Ukraine needs in May and June.
We are preparing seven new security documents for our country – bilateral security agreements, including a security agreement with the United States… Weapons, finance, political cooperation – today I worked with the team on specific details of these documents, and we already have preliminary texts of some of these agreements. Each of them will support us this year and the next ones – this is our security architecture for the period until we join NATO. We are filling the draft agreements with stronger opportunities for Ukraine and for our common security with partners. Obviously, any means of increasing our protection against Russian terror are given special priority.
The second issue is the European orientation. Much depends on our activity, as in every previous stage of our EU integration. Ukraine has already fully implemented its part of the commitments so that we can actually start accession negotiations this June. We are working to avoid any delays or misunderstandings on the part of the European Union. We are preparing all the details, all the steps, all the aspects of communication, together with a team of our international experts. And I am grateful to everyone who is helping. This year, we have to maintain the situation and to achieve new goals in every strategic direction. The European Union, the actual start of negotiations, our rapprochement is one of these directions.
And, of course, the Global Peace Summit, the first of its kind, which can launch a real movement towards just peace. We are preparing for this summit and this movement. We are working closely with the Swiss side. Today we have agreed on the final details, and we are making every effort to ensure that as many leaders and countries as possible attend the summit. This is a matter of principle. The world can stop any aggressor. If it acts in unity and according to the rules of the majority – no aggression can withstand genuine global pressure. And we must all act together to force Russia into peace. In the coming weeks, there will be a lot of non–public work with partners to make the summit truly meaningful.
And one more thing for this day. I have made several personnel changes in the Security Service of Ukraine. Moreover, today I would like to thank the 9th Department of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine – your precision is inspiring. And our National Guard, all those who are on the front line, all those who, together with other units of the Defense and Security Forces of Ukraine, honorably carry out combat missions. Thank you! And especially to the 3rd and 4th Operational Brigades, the warriors of the Omega Special Forces Center, the 5th Separate Assault Detachment, and the 6th Separate Detachment. I thank everyone who fights for Ukraine, who strengthens Ukraine, who helps Ukraine to bring justice – justice and peace – closer.
Glory to Ukraine!
Norway:
Norway will increase military support for Ukraine by NOK 7 billion ($628 million) this year.
The majority of the funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine's air defense and protect the lives of Ukrainians.
We are grateful to our Norwegian friends for their unfaltering support.… pic.twitter.com/HxQn4GaO7j
— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) May 1, 2024
Norway will increase military support for Ukraine by NOK 7 billion ($628 million) this year.
The majority of the funds will be used to strengthen Ukraine’s air defense and protect the lives of Ukrainians.
We are grateful to our Norwegian friends for their unfaltering support. Together, we will overcome the russian aggressor.
Washington, DC:
Imposing New Measures on Russia for its Full-Scale War and Use of Chemical Weapons Against Ukraine – United States Department of State https://t.co/r2rJ6do52h
— Jill Dougherty (@jillrussia) May 1, 2024
From the State Department:
The United States is today sanctioning more than 280 individuals and entities to impose additional costs on Russia for both its foreign aggression and internal repression.
In this action, the Department of State is imposing sanctions on more than 80 entities and individuals, including those engaged in: development of Russia’s future energy, metals, and mining production and export capacity; sanctions evasion and circumvention; and furthering Russia’s ability to wage its war against Ukraine.
The Department of State is concurrently delivering to Congress a determination pursuant to the Chemical and Biological Weapons Control and Warfare Elimination Act of 1991 (CBW Act) regarding Russia’s use of the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian troops. Pursuant to the CBW Act, the Department is re-imposing restrictions on foreign military financing, U.S. Government lines of credit, and export licenses for defense articles and national security-sensitive items going to Russia. The Department also is sanctioning three Russian government entities associated with Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs and four Russian companies that have contributed to such entities.
Among these actions, the Department is also sanctioning an additional three individuals in connection with the death of Aleksey Navalny in Russian Penal Colony IK-3.
All targets are being designated pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 14024, as amended, which authorizes sanctions with respect to specified harmful foreign activities of the Government of the Russian Federation.
The United States will continue to use the tools at its disposal to disrupt support for Russia’s military-industrial base and curtail Russia’s use of the international financial system to further its war against Ukraine. We continue to stand in solidarity with Russians striving for a more democratic future and with Ukrainians defending their homeland from Russia’s aggression.
CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS ACTIVITIES AND PROCUREMENT
The Department of State has made a determination under the CBW Act that Russia has used the chemical weapon chloropicrin against Ukrainian forces in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). We make this determination in addition to our assessment that Russia has used riot control agents as a method of warfare in Ukraine, also in violation of the CWC. The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield. Russia’s ongoing disregard for its obligations to the CWC comes from the same playbook as its operations to poison Aleksey Navalny and Sergei and Yulia Skripal with Novichok nerve agents.
In coordination with the Department of the Treasury, the Department of State is designating three Russian Federation government entities associated with Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs and four Russian companies providing support to such entities. The Department of the Treasury is separately designating three entities and two individuals involved in procuring items for military institutes involved in Russia’s chemical and biological weapons programs, pursuant to a separate WMD non-proliferation authority.
Pursuant to section 1(a)(i) of E.O. 14024, the following entities are being designated for operating or having operated in the defense and related materiel sector of the Russian Federation economy:
- RADIOLOGICAL, CHEMICAL, AND BIOLOGICAL DEFENSE TROOPS OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (RCB DEFENSE TROOPS) is a specialized Russian military unit responsible for identification of and decontamination from radioactive, chemical and biological hazards. The RCB DEFENSE TROOPS have been involved in the day-to-day operations of Russia’s chemical weapons program and also have facilitated the use of the chemical weapon chloropicrin by Russian armed forces against Ukrainian troops.
- SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF APPLIED ACOUSTICS (FGUP NIIPA) is a Russian government scientific research institute that carries out research and development of military products and develops methods for the export of dual-use goods and technologies. FGUP NIIPA has been involved in the procurement and inventory of chemicals that could be used in the production of chemical weapons agents.
- FEDERAL STATE BUDGETARY INSTITUTION 48TH CENTRAL SCIENTIFIC AND RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION (48TH TSNII) is the leading Russian Ministry of Defense scientific research institute responsible for Russian military protection against infectious diseases and biological threats. 48th TSNII and its facilities are associated with the Russian biological weapons program. 48th TSNII and its branches were previously added to the Department of Commerce’s Entity List on August 27, 2020, and to the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) Section 231 List of Specified Persons on March 2, 2021.
There is a lot more at the link.
What’s interesting, is that I covered the question of Russian use of chloropicrin way back in September 2022.
Tatarigami and his Frontintelligence team have a new assessment regarding the battlespace of Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar. From the Thread Reader App:
Russian forces have gained tactically near Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar, and have attempted a large assault towards Sivers’k. Frontelligence Insight provides a concise analysis of the current situation in this 🧵threadBefore proceeding, please like and share to aid with visibility
2/ According to on-the-ground reports, occasional Russian groups have temporarily crossed the canal at Chasiv Yar but didn’t establish a bridgehead. A geolocated video by @giK1893 shows that Russians tried to set a position in the south of Chasiv Yar at the landbridge crossing3/ Considering that Russians gathered superior means and forces in the area, it’s a point of concern. It opens an opportunity to advance into the forest on the west side of the canal. If successful, this would provide them with the freedom to choose further assault directions.4/ Losing control of the southern part of Chasiv Yar would be negative, opening the road leading to Kostyantynivka, with the small village of Stupochky being the only obstacle in the way. However, we are not currently close to that situation.6/ Russian forces continuing to make tactical gains in the Ocheretyne area. Their advancing direction suggests an objective to reach Novooleksandrivka and then Vozdvyzhenka, potentially allowing them to cut off the road connecting the vital towns of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka.6/ If the @Deepstate_UA’s reported territorial gains are accurate, it indicates that Russian forces have captured fortified positions.If you want to support Ukrainian forces in the area, check @jana_skhidna, a volunteer who consistently delivers aid to frontline forces there
7/ In the Bilohorivka-Siversk direction, over the past 48 hours, the enemy has launched multiple assaults from various directions, supported by a series of KAB strikes. Ground reports indicate that approximately 8 KAB hits occurred within 30 minutes. These assaults were repelled8/ The frontline situation remains complex, but efforts are underway to stabilize it. The arrival of Western ammunition is expected to improve the situation. While Russian forces are making gains, there is no sign of a frontline collapse.9/ These tactical gains may appear minor, but accumulation can lead to operational success. The goal is to form a multi-echelon double-pincer move. The smaller pincer aims to isolate forces south of Bakhmut, while the larger pincer seeks to encircle the entire grouping of forces10/ Ukraine can slow down and even stop the Russian advance, but not without losing several settlements. Despite shortcomings in strategic and operational planning, senior officers and soldiers at the tactical level are demonstrating personal initiative to fix the situation11/ For instance, individual officers and soldiers have taken the initiative to get machinery from charity funds and volunteers to build defenses. They also established ad-hoc training to train new soldiers who did not receive adequate training in the official training facilities12/ Most of these assaults have been countered thanks to infantry, supported by FPV drones, whose ammunition is still being produced in improvised workshops. Innovative ways to bypass EW or enhance FPV flight range are being developed and implemented at the individual level13/ Overall, thanks to ground-level efforts driven by the personal initiative of brigade officers, soldiers, and sergeants, along with the arrival of Western aid and stabilization measures that we can’t disclose, the situation may improve
The Avdiivka front:
Bradley IFV of the 47th Brigade firing at the Russian MT-LB with infantry. Related to the attack described in the attached post. https://t.co/DnGbBtTuDL https://t.co/2e9xIRauJL pic.twitter.com/q4Hfix0Zor
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
Kuban, Russian occupied Luhansk:
Missile strike on Russian military training grounds near Kuban, Luhansk region. 100km from the front line. Supposedly ATACMS strike. https://t.co/5HVqgepOE5 pic.twitter.com/MPOcuGCZla
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
Russian Telegram channels post this video. Reportedly, this is a Russian vehicle full of ammunition burning somewhere in occupied Luhansk region. pic.twitter.com/OnALetRfeP
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) May 1, 2024
Georgia:
Georgia 🇬🇪🇬🇪🇬🇪 pic.twitter.com/hWfr15dzpU
— WarTranslated (Dmitri) (@wartranslated) May 1, 2024
The brave woman confronts the riot police in Tbilisi saying: "shoot me, kill me! What are you doing to our children! shame on you!" pic.twitter.com/yvctzjxglc
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) May 1, 2024
3AM in Tbilisi.
The riot police are using water cannons to disperse the protesters. Tens of thousands of Georgians remain in front of the Parliament. pic.twitter.com/gj0rtZACcY
— Giorgi Revishvili (@revishvilig) May 1, 2024
STATEMENT!!!! State Dept On Georgia’s Western Trajectory at Risk#NoTorussianlaw pic.twitter.com/PIKl93rgVI
— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) May 1, 2024
Russia:
/1. Russian oil refinery in Ryazan was under attack tonight. This is the second time when drones target objects on the territory of this oil refinery (thread about previous strikes attached).
Ryazan oil refinery is located 470 km from the frontline. https://t.co/P8gzFp4PID pic.twitter.com/cXBBBw1lPQ— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
/3. Geolocation proof from Ryazan oil refinery. https://t.co/tjNeSlA0IT
— Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 (@bayraktar_1love) May 1, 2024
That’s enough for tonight.
Your daily Patron!
There are no new Patron tweets today. So here’s some adjacent material:
“Rama” and her family pic.twitter.com/orPINSrnW5
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024
New life on frontline pic.twitter.com/bHqURZKnXS
— UkrARMY cats & dogs (@UAarmy_animals) April 30, 2024
Open thread!
War for Ukraine Day 799: Odesa Targeted With Ballistic MissilesPost + Comments (28)
This post is in: 2024 Elections, Open Threads, Proud to Be A Democrat
So far, defining the difference between the two parties:
NEW: GOP urges Secret Service to move protesters away from a Milwaukee park near their convention arena, arguing that attendees will have to pass the area and conflict could ensue. https://t.co/Qiq5hpkPKQ
— Josh Dawsey (@jdawsey1) April 26, 2024
The RNC wants to Speak to the (Secret Service) Manager, per the Washington Post:
… Milwaukee’s plan to host protesters in a one-block city park about a quarter-mile from the arena is dangerous because thousands of convention attendees will be forced to walk by the park en route to the festivities, a lawyer for the Republican Party wrote in the letter. The park is situated between two main streets that the Republican National Committee says convention attendees will use to get to the venue.
“This will force thousands of peaceful attendees and demonstrators, who may otherwise choose to avoid or limit direct, proximate engagement with one another, to be in extremely close, consistent, and unavoidable proximity. As recent college and university campus clashes make plain, forced proximity heightens tensions among peaceful attendees and demonstrators of differing ideologies and increases the risk of escalation to verbal, or even physical, clashes and corresponding law enforcement intervention,” wrote the lawyer, Todd Steggerda of McGuireWoods.
Instead, the GOP wants the Secret Service to include the area called Pere Marquette Park in its security perimeter, which would force the city to choose a different area for its “First Amendment Zone.” Pere Marquette is the closest large park to the arena. The RNC has proposed another park by City Hall across the river from the arena, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations.
In the letter, Steggerda wrote that the RNC asked low-level Secret Service officials to change the plan, but “this critical shortcoming has not been addressed.” By sending the letter, the RNC is escalating the dispute to the director of the Secret Service and demanding a meeting to discuss the issue…
Secret Service officials have told city officials that they do not want to get involved in a political fight, said another person familiar with the discussions, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential negotiations.
“This was not set up to stick it to the Republicans. This was where we were going to have the protest area for the Democrats in 2020 as well,” this person said….
Meanwhile, on our side…
Scoop via @MattBelloni: Steven Spielberg “has been quietly but actively working with the Joe Biden campaign to help choreograph August’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. … participating in multiple strategy sessions on how to best tell the president’s story…”… https://t.co/3CL1Mifqof
— Dylan Byers (@DylanByers) April 26, 2024
This is the entirety of Byer’s Spielberg-related scoop at Puck:
Spielberg to tell Biden’s story at D.N.C.: Steven Spielberg hasn’t made a movie since The Fabelmans in 2022, so there’s a ton of speculation about what project he’ll tackle next. Surprise: It’s not a movie. I’m told the Oscar-winning filmmaker has been quietly but actively working with the Joe Biden campaign to help choreograph August’s Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Starting a few months ago, Spielberg has participated in multiple strategy sessions on how to best tell the president’s story, his accomplishments, and his vision for a second term. Spielberg is a big Biden fundraiser, of course, and his friend and former DreamWorks business partner Jeffrey Katzenberg is a chair of the Biden campaign. I’m told Spielberg also quietly consulted a bit on the 2020 convention, which was held virtually. But Steven will play a bigger role this time, according to a source familiar with the planning, and while there’s no short-film project in the works right now, he could even direct or produce something that would be shown at the convention, as he did in 2008 for Obama. (The Biden campaign and a rep for Spielberg both declined to comment.)
The Repubs have their own hopes & dreams about our convention…
They need it so bad. They need anything slightly resembling a left-wing 1/6 to cancel out their guy sending brownshirts to the Capitol. So they can campaign for Trump and still get invited to Brian Grazer’s pool party.
— zeddy (@Zeddary) April 22, 2024
Smart piece by @ed_kilgore.
I was the Dep. Director of the Convention Hall at the United Center in '96, and I can tell you there's ZERO chance of a '68-style meltdown. For the reasons Ed cites + b/c the U Center, unlike in 68, is not right downtown. https://t.co/kLQCMwpUGb
— Matt Bennett (@ThirdWayMattB) April 19, 2024
Ed Kilgore, longterm Democrat (he was Jimmy Carter’s speechwriter) & reliable pundit, at NYMag:
… [T]hanks to intense controversy over Israel’s lethal operations in Gaza and widespread global protests aimed partly at Israel’s allies and sponsors in Washington, plans are well underway for demonstrations in Chicago during the August 19 to 22 confab. Organizers say they expect as many as 30,000 protesters to gather outside Chicago’s United Center during the convention. As in the past, a key issue is how close the protests get to the actual convention. Obviously, demonstrators want delegates to hear their voices and the media to amplify their message. And police, Chicago officials, and Democratic Party leaders want protests to occur as far away from the convention as possible. How well these divergent interests are met will determine whether there is anything like the kind of clashes that dominated Chicago ’68.
Gaza isn’t Vietnam.
Horrific as the ongoing events in Gaza undoubtedly are, and with all due consideration of the U.S. role in backing and supplying Israel now and in the past, the Vietnam War was a more viscerally immediate crisis for both the protesters who descended on Chicago that summer and the Americans watching the spectacle on TV…Political conventions are different today.
One reason the 1968 Chicago protests created such an indelible image is that the conflict outside on the streets was reflected in conflict inside the convention venue. For one thing, 1968 nominee Hubert Humphrey had not quelled formal opposition to his selection when the convention opened. He never entered or won a single primary…By contrast, no matter what is going on outside the United Center, the 2024 Democratic convention is going to be totally wired for Joe Biden, with nearly all the delegates attending pledged to him and chosen by his campaign. Even aside from the lack of formal opposition to Biden, conventions since 1968 have become progressively less spontaneous and more controlled by the nominee and the party that nominee directs (indeed, the chaos in Chicago in 1968 encouraged that trend, along with near-universal use of primaries to award delegates, making conventions vastly less deliberative). While there may be some internal conflict on the platform language related to Gaza, it will very definitely be resolved long before the convention and far away from cameras…
Brandon Johnson isn’t Richard Daley.
… Current Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson, who was born the year of Daley’s death, is a Black progressive and labor activist who is still fresh from his narrow 2023 mayoral runoff victory over the candidate backed by both the Democratic Establishment and police unions. While he is surely wary of the damage anti-Israel and anti-Biden protests can do to the city’s image if they turn violent, Johnson is not without ties to protesters. He broke a tie in the Chicago City Council to ensure passage of a Gaza cease-fire resolution earlier this year. His negotiating skills will be tested by the maneuvering already underway with protest groups and the Democratic Party, but he’s not going to be the sort of implacable foe the 1968 protesters encountered.The whole world (probably) won’t be watching.
The 1968 Democratic convention was from a bygone era of gavel-to-gavel coverage by the three broadcast-television networks that then dominated the media landscape and the living rooms of the country. When they were being bludgeoned by the Chicago police, protesters began chanting, “The whole world is watching,” which wasn’t much of an exaggeration. Today’s media coverage of major-party political conventions is extremely limited and (like coverage of other events) fragmented. If violence breaks out this time in Chicago, it will get a lot of attention, albeit much of it bent to the optics of the various media outlets covering it. But the sense in 1968 that the whole nation was watching in horror as an unprecedented event rolled out in real time will likely never be recovered.
If there are protests in Chicago … it will be the same crowd we had in 2016 and 2020
The agitators, Trump supporters, malcontents, propagandists & perpetually lost GOP enablers always come to put Trump back in power
Actual voters see it for what it is
Voting Pres Biden
— RiotWomenn (@riotwomennn) April 21, 2024
Wednesday Evening Open Thread: Planning the National ConventionsPost + Comments (89)
This post is in: Open Threads, Politics, Supreme Court, Supreme Court Corruption
Looks like we can use an open thread!
I’ve been gardening most of the day and I’m exhausted, but I started this post last night so it will have to do!
— mike luckovich (@mluckovichajc) April 30, 2024
Did I miss any news today?
Open thread.
by David Anderson| 14 Comments
This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance
Yesterday afternoon, I was having a beer and a long discussion on Zoom with my friend and most frequent co-author. We’re trying to figure out what our combined research agenda for the next couple of years looks like after we get through a couple of current and near future projects. We think we have some cool questions that both build on our previous work while also being intellectually interesting and extremely policy relevant.
We got cool stuff in the near and long term pipeline.
However, one of the more useful parts of the conversation was the decision to send an idea of mine that has been bugging me for 6+ years to the big farm upstate where good projects go to play with other really good projects. I want to study negative premium plans in the ACA but we can’t figure out the data or the approach. I’m throwing this out there for anyone to steal and do really cool things with as I want to read your paper in 2027 but I don’t know how the hell to write that paper.
We know that zero premium plans are pretty common in the ACA (as well as Medicare Advantage and Medicaid Managed Care). We know token positive premiums create substantial administrative burden. Every ACA paper that I write (including my dissertation) has a line that says something to the effect “premiums are minimally bounded by zero….” That is not quite right! Sometimes there are extremely lagged negative premium plans or in non-econ language — sometimes there are plans where you eventually get paid to buy them.
WHAT?
Yeah, this is weird. It is an artifact of the Medical Loss Ratio(MLR) regulations. MLR rules state that over a 3 year rolling window, an insurer has to spend 80% of qualified premiums on either medical/pharmacy claims OR qualified quality improvement projects. In reality, gross premiums are greater than qualified premiums, so the actual ratio is around 75%(ish). If an insurer over that three year window in a state-market segment has an MLR below 80%, the insurer-segment has to send out rebate checks to enrollees from the last year of the three year window.
Most of the time, MLR rebates are going to be actuarial noise as insurers aim to be just above the cut-off point and sometimes they miss high and sometimes they miss low.
HOWEVER— in 2018, the ACA market was an ungodly mess.
Lots of insurers decided to leave in 2017 for the 2018 plan year as they had no idea if the market would still exist when they had to do their rate filings in summer 2017 due to Repeal and Replace and they had no idea what was happening with Cost Sharing Reduction subsidy payments. The surviving insurers did what insurers and actuarials do when they are scared — massively jack up rates. They also put the cost of CSR payments into their Silver premiums in a move known as Silverloading.
More particularly, a few insurers, including one in Virginia, were local monopolists and realized that they could send premiums through the roof and most enrollees who got subsidies would not be effected (interesting side note — GOLD enrollees facing a massive relative price shock… find new grad student minion to pitch). By summer 2018, it was obvious that insurers were Scrooge McDucking it for 2018 as premiums skyrocketed, enrollment stayed flat-ish and claims were flat-ish.
By the start of 2019 and especially the 2020 Open Enrollment Periods, it was obvious that a couple of insurers would need to issue huge ass MLR rebate checks for their 2018 pricing. And an individual who could buy a low to no premium plan in one of these insurers was effectively buying an option that was very likely to be in the money on one of those huge ass rebate checks. The combination of normal ACA subsidies, and Silverloading would drive down their premiums at the point of purchase and the MLR rebate check would, eighteen months later, make their effective net premium negative by a whole lot. In some cases it could be a several thousand dollar check.
The companies that were very likely to be giving out honking huge rebates was pretty predictable — so did attentive enrollees buy their option?
I want to answer this question but the data has never been good enough….
So feel free to use this set-up as I want to read your paper in 2027.